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2014-15 Miami HEAT Season Preview

Can the new-look HEAT contend without LeBron James?

Basketball Insiders



This was obviously a tough offseason for the Miami HEAT, with LeBron James deciding to leave as a free agent and return to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

But as bad as this summer was for Miami, it could’ve been far worse had they also lost Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Had those two left, the HEAT would’ve likely had to rebuild rather than just retool. Instead, by bringing those stars back and adding players like Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts, Danny Granger and Shabazz Napier, Miami should remain a contender in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.

Miami will look very different in 2014-15 and we’re going to find out how important James was to this team, but by no means should anyone count the HEAT out just yet. This is still a very talented team that seems like a lock to make the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

Basketball Insiders previews the 2014-15 Miami HEAT.

Five Guys Think

While Miami enjoyed their rental of LeBron James for four years, his return to Cleveland this summer brings the HEAT crashing back to reality. Even though Luol Deng is about as good a replacement at small forward as Miami could have found in free agency, they’re no longer in the conversation for the Finals, despite returning a pretty similar team (minus LeBron) as the one that got there a year ago. They could still ultimately end up with homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs this year, but it will be more difficult than it has been in the recent past. Don’t count them out, but don’t necessarily count them in, either.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Joel Brigham

After losing LeBron James, the HEAT are no longer the clear-cut favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Still, anyone who thinks that Pat Riley would simply pull the plug and begin rebuilding was sadly mistaken. Most believe that Chris Bosh’s new contract is a bit too rich, but the HEAT simply could not afford to lose him and sentence Dwyane Wade to wallowing in mediocrity during the twilight of his career. Now, after adding Luol Deng on what amounts to an incredible value, the HEAT certainly have enough to challenge for the Southeast Division title if Wade can remain healthy. Newcomer Shabazz Napier will attempt to mimic the trajectory of his fellow UConn Huskie, teammate and new division rival, Kemba Walker. With Shawne Williams, Shannon Brown and Reggie Williams, Riley hopes that Josh McRoberts and Danny Granger can provide the HEAT with the depth necessary to compete in the new Eastern Conference. They just might, but their health is a major concern.

3rd place – Southeast Division

– Moke Hamilton

Four straight appearances in the NBA Finals. Two titles in that span. The Miami HEAT have run roughshod over the league but their reign as top dog effectively ended when four-time MVP LeBron James decided to bolt in free agency. But if you’re expecting the HEAT to drop into the draft lottery, you may have to reevaluate your position. Miami still boasts All-Stars Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, while adding former All-Star forward Luol Deng in free agency. The HEAT were also able to add forwards Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts. The HEAT are no longer the team to beat but this is still a playoff team with plenty of experience at the top of the rotation.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Lang Greene

After losing LeBron James, the HEAT could have blown up their roster and went into rebuilding mode. That was a possibility with so many of their players also testing free agency. However, Pat Riley and his staff decided to retool and bring back many of the same players, re-signing Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem and then bringing in some new additions like Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts, Danny Granger and Shabazz Napier among others. This should keep Miami in contention in the weak East, although they’ll likely be a notch below the conference’s top-tier teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls. Still, there’s a lot to like about this roster despite James’ exit and it’ll be interesting to see how far the HEAT can advance without him. Look for Bosh to step up and be the No. 1 option on offense, similar to his role with the Toronto Raptors prior to his departure.

2nd Place – Southeast Division

– Alex Kennedy

If you ask the San Antonio Spurs about their keys to success, they’ll make no secret about it: It’s the presence of Tim Duncan. LeBron James was responsible for the HEAT’s success in a similar manner, yet didn’t seem to get the same kind of praise or respect from within the organization that Duncan did with the Spurs. Maybe it was because he came as a free agent and they already had Dwyane Wade who led them to a championship before his arrival, but the HEAT are about to receive a stiff reality check over just how important he was to them. They did do a fine job reloading and still have a team that will win 50+ games, but James made them a championship contender, and those days are now gone with him back in Cleveland.

3rd Place – Southeast Division

– Yannis Koutroupis

Top of the List

Top Offensive Player: Chris Bosh. Expect to see much more of Bosh on the offensive end this year. With James no longer around to lead the team in scoring and attempts, Miami will need Bosh to step up and remind everyone that he averaged 22.3 points or better in his last five seasons with the Toronto Raptors. He had to sacrifice more than any other HEAT player in the last four years, changing positions and getting significantly less touches than he was accustomed to. However, that should change this year. Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng should also help pick up the slack on the offensive end, but both players are coming off of down years statistically in which they missed significant time with injuries. That’s why Bosh seems like the most likely go-to scorer entering the season.

Top Defensive Player: Chris Andersen. The veteran big man was brought to Miami to be a rim protector and provide energy off of the bench. Over the last two seasons, he has done exactly that and re-signing him over the summer was an important move for Miami. Even though Andersen is 36 years old, he’s still a very talented interior defender and that shouldn’t change during the 2014-15 campaign. Last season, he led Miami in defensive rating (102) and block percentage (6.1 percent). Statistically, he was the team’s best defender in the postseason as well. Losing James will certainly hurt Miami on the defensive end, but bringing back Andersen on a two-year deal was a solid move that will pay off on defense and the boards.

Top Playmaker: Dwyane Wade. It’s possible that Shabazz Napier could eventually become Miami’s best playmaker, but it’s hard to put him here since he hasn’t played a minute of NBA basketball yet. Wade will likely have the ball in his hands much more this season and should emerge as the HEAT’s best playmaker. Last season, Miami’s point guards struggled to create for their teammates, as Mario Chalmers averaged just 4.9 assists and Norris Cole averaged 3.0. In the playoffs, they were awful, with Chalmers averaging 3.6 assists and Cole averaging 1.8. James actually led Miami in assists per game in the regular season (6.3) and playoffs (4.8), and his passing was perhaps his biggest strength. Now, expect Wade to be the one creating for himself and others as Miami’s floor general (unless Napier is able to make an immediate impact and take over those duties).

Top Clutch Player: Chris Bosh. Of the remaining players on the roster, Bosh put up the best numbers in clutch situations last year. He averaged the most points and tied with Chris Andersen for most blocks. His shooting percentages in these situations were also fantastic, as he shot 53.7 percent from the field, 51.6 percent from three-point range and 91.7 percent from the field. It’s possible that Wade could return to form and become the HEAT’s go-to player in the clutch this season, but he struggled in those situations last year (shooting just 36.4 percent from the field and 65 percent from the free-throw line).

The Unheralded Player: Josh McRoberts. The HEAT will be McRoberts’ sixth NBA team in eight seasons and most casual fans couldn’t pick him out of a lineup. However, even though McRoberts had his struggles earlier in his career, he played very well with Charlotte over the last two seasons. He filled the stat sheet and contributed on both ends of the floor, which is why the HEAT rewarded him with a four-year, $23 million contract. The question is, will McRoberts be able to pick up right where he left off in Miami or will he regress to the mediocre player he seemed to be earlier in his career? That’s something worth watching throughout this season.

Best New Addition: Luol Deng. It’s hard to replace someone like LeBron James, because he’s the best player on the planet and brings so much to a team. But Miami deserves credit for being able to sign Deng to fill the void at small forward shortly after losing James. At his best, Deng is an All-Star who is able to contribute on both ends of the court. He’s also a terrific person, who will provide veteran leadership and a strong locker room presence in Miami. Last season was pretty brutal for Deng, as he was traded for the first time in his career and landed on a Cleveland Cavaliers team that (at the time) had a lot of issues on and off the court. Deng’s numbers slipped significantly, which likely hurt him in free agency, but Miami signed him to a reasonable two-year, $20 million deal and is hoping that he can return to form this year with a more positive change of scenery.

– Alex Kennedy

Who We Like

1. Erik Spoelstra: Spoelstra doesn’t get enough credit for the job he has done in Miami. Some fans act like anyone could have won with the rosters that Spoelstra has had, but that’s simply not true. Spoelstra is just the third head coach in NBA history to lead his team to four straight Finals, and he’s the eighth coach in history to lead his team to two straight championships. He got the most out of his players and helped them evolve. Before landing in Miami, James wasn’t a power forward and Bosh wasn’t a center, but Spoelstra changed that and was very successful with his “positionless basketball.” He also did a good job managing the team’s egos in recent years, and utilizing the many weapons on his roster. This year, if Spoelstra can keep Miami near the top of the Eastern Conference standings without James, perhaps his excellent coaching will get more recognition, which he certainly deserves.

2. Dwyane Wade: Last season was obviously a rough year for Wade, as he played in just 54 games and was basically a part-time player since the HEAT wanted to ensure he was healthy for the postseason. With that said, when Wade was able to get on the court, he was still pretty impressive. He averaged 19 points, 4.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals. Not to mention, he shot a career-high 54.5 percent from the field. Wade’s efficiency rating was 22.06, which ranked 18th in the NBA. For most players, that would be a career-year, but Wade is so talented that it was actually considered a down year. Wade’s health is certainly a big question entering this season, because he needs to be on the court to be effective. But it’s very possible that Wade could have an increased role and post even better numbers this season to fill the void left by James. At 32 years old, he may not be the highflyer who filled highlight reels and once averaged over 30 points per game, but he’s still one of the most productive two-guards in the game when he’s at full strength.

3. Danny Granger: One of the first moves that Miami made this summer was signing Granger to a two-year, $4.25 million contract. It’s going to be strange to see Granger in a HEAT jersey after his many battles with Miami earlier in his career as a member of the Indiana Pacers, but this could turn out to be a good move for the HEAT. Injuries have derailed Granger’s career and he was relegated to a reserve role last year, with the Pacers and then the L.A. Clippers, but he could have a bigger role in Miami. In Los Angeles, he played just 16.2 minutes per game since the Clippers were loaded with talented veterans, but his per-36 numbers from last year were actually pretty good (17.8 points and 5.2 rebounds). Nobody is expecting Granger to be an All-Star again (hence the $2.1 million salary), but he could be a significant contributor once again.

4. James Ennis: Last year, one of Miami’s biggest issues was that they had a ton of relatively old veterans who were on the decline. They really didn’t have many young players who could provide some much-needed energy. That’s exactly what Ennis could do for Miami this year. He was terrific last season during his stint with the Perth Wildcats of the Australian Basketball League, averaging 21.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.42 steals while leading the team to the championship. Then, Ennis turned heads during the Orlando Summer League, averaging 15.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.33 steals while shooting 51.7 percent from the field, 48.1 percent from three-point range and 80 percent from the foul line. In one game, he had 29 points in 25 minutes, hitting 10-of-12 from the field, 7-of-8 from three-point range and 2-of-2 from the free-throw line. Keep an eye on the 24-year-old this season.

– Alex Kennedy


Even without James, Miami still has star power with Bosh, Wade and Deng as well as one of the best head coaches in the NBA in Spoelstra. Last year’s stats may no longer be as relevant since James is gone, but it’s worth noting that the HEAT were one of the best teams on both ends of the court last season. On offense, they averaged 102.2 points per game (12th in the NBA) and shot 50.1 percent from the field (first in the NBA). On defense, they allowed just 97.4 points per game (fifth in the NBA) and forced 15.6 turnovers per game (third in the NBA). Losing James will hurt on both ends, but this is still a talented team with top-notch coaching, so don’t expect a huge drop off like we’ve from some teams that lost their best player.

– Alex Kennedy


In recent years, Miami played a number of veterans who were clearly in the twilight of their career such as Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Chris Andersen, Rashard Lewis, Mike Miller and James Jones among others. This year, a number of those players are gone, but Miami is still a pretty old team. Some of their key players – Wade (32), Bosh (30), Deng (29), Granger (31), Andersen (36), Udonis Haslem (34) – are getting up there and have already started to show signs of decline. With so many veterans, health is also a concern for Miami. On paper, this team looks pretty good. But Wade, Bosh, Deng and Granger have all had some injuries, which could keep this team from playing at full strength. On the court, Miami’s defense and three-point shooting could regress this season due to roster changes.

– Alex Kennedy

The Salary Cap

After the HEAT fell below the cap this summer, losing LeBron James to free agency (Cleveland Cavaliers), they’ve looked to fill the void with a number of quality signings.  In addition to re-signing Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Chris Andersen, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem, the team also added Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts, Danny Granger and Shawne Williams.  Haslem was brought back via the team’s $2.7 million Room Exception.  McRoberts agreed to a deal worth the $5.3 million Mid-Level Exception, and Granger did the same at the $2.1 Bi-Annual Exception amount – but with Miami going under the cap, those exceptions were renounced.  Instead, the pair signed at similar amounts via Miami’s cap space.  The HEAT are fully invested in 11 players.  Half of Justin Hamilton’s $816k contract is guaranteed while James Ennis will make at least $200k of his rookie salary.  Tyler Johnson has a $75k guarantee while Shannon Brown and Reggie Williams have nothing promised.  Norris Cole is eligible for a contract extension until Halloween, otherwise he’ll become a restricted free agent next summer.

– Eric Pincus

The Burning Question

Is Miami still a contender without LeBron James?

Entering the 2014-15 season, this is the big question that HEAT fans are asking. James is one of the most talented players we’ve seen in years and he was a huge part of this team’s success in recent years, but can they continue to be an elite squad in the East without him? Bringing back fellow unrestricted free agents Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Chris Andersen, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem was huge because it means most of their core will be back and they’ll have some chemistry entering the year. The Luol Deng signing was big as well since it prevents them from having a hole at the small forward position in the starting lineup. Adding players like Josh McRoberts, Shabazz Napier and Danny Granger among others should help the team’s depth and give them some more weapons. Not to mention, Miami still has Erik Spoelstra, who is one of the better coaches in the league. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls seem like the top-tier teams in the Eastern Conference and then there is a significant drop off. Miami is in that next group along with teams like the Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards among others. The HEAT have the talent to remain a contender in the East, but getting past the Cavaliers or Bulls will be tough if they reach their full potential and remain healthy.

– Alex Kennedy


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NBA PM: Frank Kaminsky’s Massive Opportunity

The potential frontcourt pairing of Frank Kaminsky and Dwight Howard should make for an exciting season in Charlotte.

Benny Nadeau



With both highs and lows to account for, it’s been an incredibly eventful offseason for the Charlotte Hornets. From trading for Dwight Howard and drafting Malik Monk to the news that defensive stalwart Nicolas Batum would be out for the foreseeable future, the Hornets will start the 2017-18 season off looking considerably different. Still, it’s difficult to see Charlotte stepping into the conference’s upper echelon alongside the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers, among others, without some major internal growth.

Down those lines, there may be no better candidate for a breakout season than Frank Kaminsky, the team’s modernly-molded stretch big man. Heading into his third NBA season, Kaminsky struggles at times but has generally affirmed why the Hornets passed on the Celtics’ huge offer and selected the former collegiate stud with the No. 9 overall pick back in 2015. Combined with the more defensive-steady force of Cody Zeller, the Hornets quickly found themselves with a solid, if not spectacular 1-2 punch at the center position.

Unsurprisingly, Kaminsky’s best nights statistically last season came when he hit multiple three-pointers. There were games like his 5-for-9 barrage from deep en route to 23-point, 13-rebound effort against the Sacramento Kings in late February, but his inconsistencies often got in the way just as much. In 2016-17 alone, Kaminsky tallied 41 games in which he converted on one or less of his three-point attempts — and the Hornets’ record? 13-28. Perhaps a tad coincidental for a franchise that finished at 36-46, but the Hornets ranked 11th in three-pointers with an even 10 per contest, so when Marvin Williams (1.6) Marco Belinelli (1.4), Kaminsky (1.5) and Batum (1.8) weren’t hitting, it was often lights out for an ultimately disappointing Charlotte side.

With his 33.1 percent career rate from deep, there’s certainly room to improve for Kaminsky, but his 116 made three-pointers still put him in a special group last season. Of all players at 7-foot or taller, only Brook Lopez made more three-pointers (134) than Kaminsky did — even ranking four ahead of Kristaps Porzingis, one of the league’s most talented unicorns. Once that category is expanded to include those at 6-foot-10 or taller, the list gets far more crowded ahead of Kaminsky, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.

On that lengthier list of three-point shooting big men is Ryan Anderson, one of the strongest like-for-like comparisons that Kaminsky has today. Drafted in 2008, Anderson has been an elite three-point shooter for quite some time and his 204 makes last season ranked him ninth in the entire NBA. In fact, Anderson’s 2012-13 tally of 213 ranked only behind Stephen Curry; the year before that, his 166 total topped the rest of the field for a first-place finish. Coming out the University of California, Anderson was solid late first-round pickup by the New Jersey Nets and he knocked down one of his 2.9 attempts per game as a rookie.

Then, Anderson was traded to the Orlando Magic in the summer of 2009 and found out that true basketballing nirvana is playing on the same team as prime Dwight Howard. For three seasons, they were a near-perfect fit for each other as Howard averaged 13.9 rebounds and Anderson hit two three-pointers per game over that stretch. Howard deftly made up for Anderson’s defensive shortcomings while the latter stretched the floor effortlessly on the other end.

Although Howard is now considerably older, he’s never recorded a season with an average of 10 rebounds or less over his 13-year career. Howard’s impressive rebounding rate of 20.8 percent — the third-highest mark in NBA history behind Dennis Rodman (23.44) and Reggie Evans (21.87) — has made it easy for his partners to stay at the perimeter or bust out in transition. Other power forwards that have flourished next to Howard also include Rashard Lewis (2.8 three-pointers per game from 2007-09) and Chandler Parsons (1.8 in 2013-14), so there’s some precedent here as well.

Simply put, Howard still demands attention in the post, and Kaminsky is the Hornets’ best possible fit next to him. As Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Williams will likely slide up a position at times to help navigate Batum’s injury, throwing Kaminsky into the fire seems almost too logical.

An improved sophomore season for Kaminsky saw rises in every major statistical category outside of his percentages due to an increase in volume. However, that 32.8 percent mark from three-point range is considerably lower than the league average and it’ll need to improve for somebody that spends much of the offensive possession ready to fire away. Regardless, Kaminsky’s 11.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game in 2016-17 are a bright sign moving forward, but with Howard, he’s about to be gifted his best opportunity yet.

Whether he’s operating in transition, out of pick-and-pops or catch-and-shoots, Kaminsky has the tools to join the elite stretch forwards in the near future and stay there permanently. Kaminsky’s growing chemistry with All-Star point guard Kemba Walker has made the pair difficult to defend out on the perimeter. From the aforementioned pick-and-pops to a slightly more complicated dribble hand-off, trying to guard the two three-point shooting threats is enough to make your head spin. When he’s not firing from behind the arc, Kaminsky has also exhibited a soft touch and an ability to score among the trees as well.

As he continues to grow and expand his skill set, Kaminsky just needs to find some much-needed consistency as a shooter. If Kaminsky can raise his three-point percentage up closer to the league average this season, he’ll be an invaluable asset for the Hornets as they push for a playoff berth. Over his two full NBA seasons thus far, the Hornets have never had somebody like Howard to pair with Kaminsky and past results for those shooters playing with the future Hall of Famer are promising. Of course, head coach Steve Clifford is a defensive-minded leader — Charlotte’s defensive rating ranked 14th in 2016-17 at 106.1 — so Kaminsky will need to improve there to take full advantage of the available minutes. Fortunately, Howard’s savvy rim protection should make it a palatable experience on both sides of the ball.

When the Hornets rebuffed the Celtics’ massive draft day offer in order to select Kaminsky two years ago, it would’ve been impossible to predict Howard falling right into their lap as well. Between his expanding game and the new frontcourt combination, there’s potential here for Kaminsky to take the next big step in 2017-18.

If and when they do indeed pair him with Howard, the Hornets will be both maximizing his talents as a perimeter threat and minimizing his weaknesses as a defender. While Clifford leaned on Zeller in the past, Howard’s decorated history surrounded by court-stretching shooters should make the decision even easier. Kaminsky’s got all the workings of a modern offensive big man, the faith of the front office and the perfect paint-clogging partner — now it’s up to him to put it all together and become one of Charlotte’s most indispensable players.

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Where Do the Celtics Go From Here?

The Boston Celtics face an uphill climb after the loss of Gordon Hayward, writes Shane Rhodes.

Shane Rhodes



The Boston Celtics suffered a crushing blow Tuesday night after losing marquee free agent acquisition Gordon Hayward to a gruesome leg injury in the early goings of the season’s opening contest. Unfortunately for Boston, the NBA will continue to march on and Brad Stevens and his squad will have to adapt, adjust and learn on the fly. With 81 games still to play, all might not be lost for the Celtics, but where can the team go from here?

A lineup shuffle is almost certainly in the cards. Marcus Smart, projected to be Stevens’ first man off the bench, will likely slot into the starting lineup as the shooting guard next to Kyrie Irving, sliding Jaylen Brown to the small forward position. From there, a larger rotation and a minutes bump for other bench guys like Terry Rozier, Shane Larkin, Semi Ojeleye, etc., would make the most sense as Stevens attempts to ensure his key guys — Irving, Brown and Al Horford — have fresh legs down the stretch. Nineteen-year-old Jayson Tatum, who impressed in his debut with a double-double of 14 points and 10 rebounds, should also get an extended look, even after presumed starter Marcus Morris is back and healthy enough to play. Irving and Horford’s veteran presence in the locker room cannot be understated as well.

Brown, who should move into Hayward’s spot in the lineup, had already been pegged for a major role on the team this season. Now, the second-year wing will bear an even heavier burden and will seemingly have to produce all over the floor for the Celtics. Without Hayward, Brown now joins a defensive group of Smart, Horford and Morris that will have their work cut out. Brown will also be expected to produce more on the offensive end as well and do so efficiently. While he poured in 25 points last night, Brown did so on an inefficient 11 of 23 shooting while going just 2-of-9 from three-point range. Still rough around the edges as expected, Brown will need to quickly smooth out his game if Boston wants to remain competitive during the season.

Danny Ainge will certainly survey the remaining free agent and trade market as well. If a low-cost, low-risk opportunity were to present itself, don’t expect the thrifty general manager to just sit back. While low-cost and low-risk doesn’t fit Ainge’s usual MO, he knows better than to make a knee-jerk reaction to a freak injury like the one Hayward sustained; he isn’t going to break the bank and mortgage the future he painstakingly built over the past several seasons to bring Anthony Davis to Boston, but a grab at JaMychal Green or a similar player certainly isn’t out of the question.

The real key to the team’s success going forward will be the play of Irving. Formerly the 1A to Hayward’s 1B, Irving will now be the sole No. 1 option and will be relied on by Stevens and the rest of the team as such, which is what Irving has really wanted all along. The whole reason he wanted out of Cleveland, out of LeBron James’ massive shadow, was to show that he could be “the guy” and now Irving has a prime opportunity to prove that he can be. The Celtics from here on will go as he goes; if Irving falters, the team will as well. While the initial showings were positive — Irving posted a double-double of his own with 22 points and 10 assists — there is a lot of basketball left to be played.

All is not lost for Boston and the 2017 season can certainly be salvaged. While Hayward’s injury is devastating and certainly sucked the enjoyment out of what many expected to be a very exciting season, the Celtics are more than capable of weathering this storm and coming out stronger on the other side with Ainge and Stevens at the helm and Irving, Brown and others leading the team on the floor.

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Changing Circumstance: On Utah’s Foundational Frontcourt

Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are ready for a big season as a duo, writes Ben Dowsett.

Ben Dowsett



In many ways, the partnership that now forms the starting frontcourt in Utah is characterized by circumstance. The Jazz basically stumbled upon the duo of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert during a mostly lost 2014-15 season, allowing it to blossom after trading Enes Kanter at the deadline. Many in the organization loved Gobert, but few expected to force his way into such a large role as early as he did.

Even with the league beginning to move firmly in the direction of smaller, spaced-out lineups, the Jazz quickly realized they had something here. Favors and Gobert picked up chemistry in a hurry – the ability to “communicate telepathically,” as Favors jokingly puts it. They quickly formed a formidable defensive duo, nicknamed “The Wasatch Front” by certain clever folks in Jazzland. (Jazz fans: Rudy is fine with this nickname, but is open to better suggestions. Get those Twitter fingers typing.)

After the Kanter trade really opened things up for the pair to start games following the All-Star break, the Jazz posted a frighteningly low 92.5 per-100-possession defensive figure – over 10 full points better than their third-ranked defense in 2016-17, and nearly nine better than the league-best Spurs posted last year.

Over the next couple years, circumstance would strike in other ways. Both guys would miss significant time with injuries in 2015-16, including overlapping periods that made it tough to find rhythm. Gobert admitted he was never really himself after an MCL sprain he likely rushed back from just a bit. Even many casual fans could pick up on how physically limited Favors was last year, even when he was ostensibly healthy.

Another bit of circumstance arose last season: With Joe Johnson in town, the Jazz found their own versions of the league’s small trend. Lineups featuring Gobert at center and Johnson playing the power forward spot were easily Utah’s best for the season, quickly becoming coach Quin Snyder’s go-to look in crunch time. Even when Favors was in the lineup, he’d regularly lose big minutes.

Circumstance was once again present over the summer, with star Gordon Hayward and point guard George Hill departing. Where Favors may have once looked like a forgotten man, he’s back at full health for the first time in over a year and is right back in the picture as a foundational piece. Where Gobert may have been part of a two-headed monster hoping to challenge for contender status in the West, he’s now the singular face of a franchise that fully expects to avoid another rebuild.

Individually, it’s a big season ahead. As a duo, it might be even bigger – not only for the pair, but for the Jazz and even for the league as a whole.


Most of the concerns you hear regarding the Favors-Gobert duo come on the offensive side of the ball. There were some struggles in that first year together, where they posted an anemic on-court figure (they were still a net plus, but only because they also strangled opponents in those minutes). That’s also about how long it took for that almost supernatural connection to kick in, as Favors tells it – it was in full swing by the 2015-16 season.

“That whole type of thing normally comes with a point guard, because they’ve got the ball all the time and they see stuff,” Favors told Basketball Insiders. “We just see each other, just communicate telepathically.”

Favors describes the connection as one of the most unique of his career, and it was visible on both sides of the ball. The two developed an uncanny knack for covering each other at the rim. Offensively, they quickly picked up a big-to-big passing game that helped with some of their spacing concerns.

“I think we both learned that we need to space for each other, we need to be precise with our spacing,” Gobert told Basketball Insiders. “I got better at passing, I got better at finishing, he got better at passing too. I know that when I’m rolling, if his guy comes, he’s going to be open – so I dump it off to him or the corner.”

“These things don’t come just like that, but once we figure it out, it’s very hard to guard,” Gobert continued. “People see that as a weakness – I see it as a strength. When teams play small, there’s going to be small guy on either one of us.”

A smaller guy on Favors means a better passing lane for Gobert, or an opportunity to seal for deep post position. A smaller guy on Gobert – something teams used to do often but have moved away from more and more as he’s developed his rolling skills – invites high lobs and dunks, or compromising help from elsewhere in the defense.

Both guys have gotten much better with their angles, as well. That smaller defender is often trying to mitigate his size advantage by fronting or some other exploitable technique, and both Favors and Gobert have learned how to attack these strategies.

Gobert has taken huge strides in his ability to finish from both sides of the hoop, and through contact. He shot one of the highest percentages in the league among centers near the rim last year, at over 68 percent, and was up at a ludicrous 81.5 percent during the preseason.

Put it together, and it’s possible the duo’s offensive concerns have been a tad bit overstated in the past. The per-possession net rating the Jazz posted while Favors and Gobert played together in 2015-16 would have ranked seventh in the league for the full season, and it actually rose last year (the corresponding rank dropped, however, as the league improved overall). The Jazz’s slightly above average offense saw virtually no drop-off last year from when the duo played together to when they didn’t, and that’s before considering Favors’ health woes.

The savvy reader will note that their surroundings are an important part of this, and they’d be right. A big chunk of their minutes together last year came with Hill running the point and spacing the floor, and over 90 percent of them came with Hayward on the court – they did okay in a tiny sample last year, but historically have struggled to score at even league average rates without Utah’s former All-Star sharing the court.

Ricky Rubio’s acquisition will likely make them even more lethal defensively, but it also presents some additional theoretical concerns. Snyder appears likely to start each of Rubio, Favors and Gobert, meaning Utah will open the game with three non-threats from deep.

Rubio’s history, though, offers a glimpse of how they might get around these issues. With the exception of last season, when Karl-Anthony Towns’ development as a shooter and playmaker opened things up a bit more, Rubio never exactly played in spacing-charged lineups in Minnesota in the past. Look at the three-point percentages of his most common jump-shooting floor-mates from the 2015-16 season:

Andrew Wiggins (played during 95 percent of Rubio’s minutes): 30.0 percent

Karl-Anthony Towns (89 percent of Rubio’s minutes): 34.1 percent

Gorgui Dieng (54 percent of Rubio’s minutes): 30.0 percent

Zach LaVine (45 percent of Rubio’s minutes): 38.9 percent

Tayshaun Prince (39 percent of Rubio’s minutes): 17.4 percent

Shabazz Muhammad (18 percent of Rubio’s minutes): 28.9 percent

Only Towns and LaVine were passable three-point shooters among that group, and LaVine played well under half of Rubio’s minutes. Virtually every lineup Rubio played in contained at least two other total non-threats (often three), and not a single one ever contained a marksman like Jazzman Joe Ingles, who nearly led the league in three-point percentage last year. Things were like this for the vast majority of Rubio’s time in Minnesota.

And yet, his teams consistently have succeeded offensively.

Since he became the full-time starter, no Wolves offense helmed by Rubio finished lower than 11th in the league during a year he was healthy – in his only non-healthy year, 2014-15, they were 26th. His teams consistently got way worse offensively when he left the floor, and consistently strong offensive Real Plus-Minus ratings (17th among point guards in 2016-17, 12th in 15-16 and 14-15, 22nd in 13-14) indicate that this was more than just a case of bad backups.

“He’s been like that his whole career, and I think he’s been pretty good [despite] it,” Gobert said of his new teammate. “There’s a lot of ways to score. He’s very quick. Even if you’re backing up, he can still attack you and find the open man. I’m not really worried about spacing.”


Rubio also comes with a few strong points that should help improve areas the Jazz were lacking on in recent years, namely their transition game. Play type figures from Synergy Sports on seem to indicate that the Jazz were elite on the break last year – they had the highest per-possession efficiency – but this is an example of where those numbers can lead you astray. The Jazz had one of the lowest frequencies of such plays in the league; their efficiency was only so high because they only attempted sure-thing shots while avoiding other transition chances like the plague.

That’s not an optimal approach offensively. Even some of those iffier transition chances still hold an expected point value that’s far higher than anything you’ll find in the halfcourt, and backing out of them for fear of an imperfect shot leaves easy points on the table.

Snyder recognizes it, and he’s looking to transition (pun maybe intended) the Jazz away from their state as one of the league’s slowest teams on the break. It starts with Rubio, long known for his ability to jitterbug up the court after defensive possessions and wreak havoc. Snyder is placing more emphasis on the ball in Rubio’s hands after misses – he wants his wings sprinting up the floor to space out to the corners whenever possible. Guys like Favors and Gobert play a big role as well.

“It’s important, especially the big that doesn’t get the rebound,” Gobert told Basketball Insiders. “Coach [Snyder] put an emphasis on [that] this year – the big who didn’t get the rebound has to run, has to sprint and try to beat his guy up the floor.”

Favors is ready for more of that now that he’s back at full health. Gobert has always loved beating guys down the floor; look how far behind DeAndre Jordan he is when he’s pushed out of the frame, and how much faster he is getting up the court for an easy bucket.

Snyder has talked about upping the tempo in preseason before, notably in his first year in Utah, only to see it fall flat when the games count. It feels different this time, though: The Jazz finished eighth in per-possession fast break points for the preseason, per, way up from a 29th-place finish last season. Rubio is easily the cleanest fit they’ve had at the point in this area, and it feels like we should expect a few extra freebies every night in transition to goose the offense.

The other area that should see a big spike, especially when the two behemoths play together, is offensive rebounding. The Jazz were a dominant team here in 2015-16, generating the third-most per-possession second chance points in the league largely on the back of the Favors-Gobert duo, which rebounded nearly 30 percent of the team’s own misses and put up over 10 second-chance points for every 36 minutes on the court.

Last year, though, things fell way off. Some of that was drop-off and health concerns from the tandem itself, and some was more stylistic.

“We’ve emphasized transition defense, and sometimes there’s an opportunity cost at the offensive glass,” Snyder said. “Sometimes when you’re spaced a certain way, it’s harder to get to the glass.

“A couple years ago our spacing was a little different – we just had guys around the rim all the time. We didn’t design our team that way or our offense that way in order to offensive rebound, we designed it that way because we had players that were effective around the rim and didn’t necessarily have three-point range. So when you look at Joe Johnson, offensive rebounding is not going to be as much of a premium for him. But Ekpe [Udoh], Derrick and Rudy, certainly.”

With Favors back healthy and starting, plus the addition of Udoh as mostly a big lineup four-man (at least in preseason), expect the Jazz to revert back to their bullying ways on the offensive glass. They lost nearly three second-chance points per night between the 15-16 season and the 16-17 one – if they can get those back or even add to them slightly, it’s another piece that can help fill in the gaps offensively. Utah was back to fourth in second-chance points for the preseason, another positive sign.

“If you’re a three and you’re playing at the four, and you’re guarding Derrick or myself, it’s not going to be a fun night for you,” Gobert told Basketball Insiders.

And if Favors and Gobert can maintain or even improve offensively together, watch out.

They’re fearsome defensively, and will only be more so if Favors’ improved mobility remains. Utah’s entire defensive scheme is built around them.

“My job really, not to give away a scouting report, but is to take guys off the three-point line and really just send them in there,” Jazz guard Rodney Hood said. “They take pride in defending the basket, they take pride in defense.”

The Jazz are looking to take a few more risks defensively this year to up their steals, which Snyder hopes will feed into increased transition opportunities. Rubio’s presence as one of the league’s premier ballhawks helps, but having those rocks behind them makes this emphasis easier to follow.

“It gives you a lot more confidence – not even to gamble, I guess, but just to be more aggressive,” swingman Joe Ingles said. “I know that if I do get beat being aggressive, that they’re going to be there and they’re going to come over and help.”

How Snyder chooses to use his big duo is yet to be seen. If preseason is any indicator, their usage will resemble much of last season, particularly toward the end: Favors and Gobert both start the game, but outside those minutes and the ones to open the third quarter, they rarely play together once Favors exits. At this point, Favors is mostly relegated to backup center during the minutes Gobert sits while Gobert plays either in small lineups or alongside Udoh.

Can they do enough to force Snyder’s hand into more minutes? It’s tough to say. Gobert is one of the few bigs in the league who can keep an interior defense afloat completely by himself – there was virtually no drop-off to Utah’s field goal percentage allowed at the rim when Gobert played around a small lineup compared with when he played next to Favors last year.

A good chunk of that could have been Favors’ health, and the Jazz will hope it’s a big chunk; if Favors’ presence doesn’t actually swing the interior defense all that much compared to when the Jazz play small, it’ll be hard to really maximize his value. Even for all the offensive improvements they’ve made as a pair, the Favors-Gobert combination still can’t touch the kind of efficiency the Jazz put up with Johnson playing power forward next to Gobert. Why play Favors-Gobert at all if there isn’t a value to the trade-off?


A healthy Favors could make that last question sound silly, and he’s out to do that to plenty of folks. Derrick doesn’t have the same kind of outward bravado Gobert boasts, but he’s quietly fierce. He heard all the noise about his declining game over the last 18 months.

He’s also prideful, and it’s tough to sit on the bench during crunch time when you’re a player of his stature. For Favors, this was an intersection of personal frustration and collective acceptance.

“Of course I want to be out there, but at the same time you’ve got to do what’s best for the team,” Favors told Basketball Insiders. He also knew who was replacing him: “If it was anybody else you’d be mad – but it’s Joe Johnson, so it’s like, ‘Hey, Joe Johnson can close games, man.’”

It was a sacrifice for Favors, and not the first one he’s made to help foster optimal usage for a teammate. As a young player, he was one of the league’s up-and-coming talents as a roll man in pick-and-roll; he’s still great there, but Gobert’s emergence as one of the game’s most dangerous lob threats here has changed the way Favors is used.

He expanded his game, working to find ways to complement Gobert when the played together. His timing has grown leaps and bounds as the “dunker” in pick-and-roll action, waiting for a dump-off from Gobert. He’s developed a great chemistry with Gobert on the “short roll” for when teams blitz ball-handlers.

All this has essentially forced him to become more versatile.

“I know when I came into the league, my calling card was rolling to the rim,” Favors said to Basketball Insiders. “[Now] I can roll to the rim, I can pop, I can play in the half roll, I can space out. I think that’s something I wanted to show everybody I can do.”

With a contract year set to begin Wednesday night, it’s a vital time for Favors. Comments from agent Wallace Prather last spring indicated that a Hayward departure was likely the only realistic avenue to Favors remaining in Salt Lake City long term; with Hayward indeed gone, Favors now has to show Jazz brass he’s worth that investment.

Gobert isn’t going anywhere, and that means Favors’ stock could rise and fall depending on how the two fare together. If the combo can’t succeed, or if small lineups end up far more effective, it would be virtually impossible to justify Utah investing the amount Favors is worth into his future.

More than that, the Favors-Gobert combo could represent a last stand of sorts for these kinds of big lineups across the league. An optimized Favors, or a similar type, is virtually a must if you’re going to try big ball against the Golden States and Houstons of the world: A guy big enough to punish wings guarding him on one end, but stick with those guys laterally on the other.

Only the fully healthy version of Favors is capable of this in big minutes. Even then, it might be a struggle against the league’s best teams – every possession in these lineups is an uphill climb against the simple math that’s made small-ball so popular in the first place. Elite opponents will choke away space and demand that Favors and Gobert beat them while outside their comfort zone.

They’re out to prove they’re ready, though. A duo marked by unexpected circumstance ever since they first came together is now looking to write their own narrative, and they’ll start it off on Wednesday night.

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