The NBA trade deadline is nearing. Teams have until 3:00 p.m. EST on February 19 to submit their deals to the league.
The trade market has been hot for most of the season, with a number of players already changing places including Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Timofey Mozgov, Brandan Wright, J.R. Smith, Dion Waiters and Corey Brewer.
The following is a list of each NBA franchise, their roster count, cap position and some interesting trade pieces that could move over the next couple of weeks:
$60 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players, $3 million in cap room and hard-capped.
Interesting trade piece(s): Hawks have the right to swap picks with the Brooklyn Nets (20-28).
Note: Why would the best team in the Eastern Conference want to mess with the chemistry?
$64.4 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap, but armed with multiple trade exceptions including one for $12.9 million (Rondo).
Interesting trade piece(s): Celtics are owed a gang of first-rounders over the next few years (Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies and Nets). Boston also has a number of player with expiring contracts: Brandon Bass, Tayshaun Prince and Marcus Thornton.
Note: The Celtics have been open for business all season. That probably won’t change until the deadline finally elapses.
$90.7 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Deep into luxury tax.
Interesting trade piece(s): Brook Lopez, Jarrett Jack, a $3.3 million trade exception (Andrei Kirilenko).
Note: The Nets appear to be in dumping mode to shed big-dollar salaries. Deron Williams and Joe Johnson can be had, but the market may be difficult to work with.
$64.1 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Lance Stephenson.
Note: The demand for Stephenson hasn’t been great to date, but that may change before the deadline.
$67.4 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Taj Gibson. The Bulls have the Sacramento Kings’ 2015 first-rounder, with top-10 protection through the next three drafts.
Note: The Bulls haven’t lived up to expectations. Gibson is a valuable member of the rotation, but he may be the most attractive player the Bulls can shop in trade.
$81.1 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Over the cap and tax threshold.
Interesting trade piece(s): Tristan Thompson.
Note: The Cavaliers made their play, acquiring Mozgov and Smith. The results have been very positive — there may not be much more for Cleveland to do by the trade deadline.
$74.4 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Not a lot.
Note: Like the Cavaliers, the Mavericks have already struck big on the trade market, landing Rondo — who has since suffered a facial injury and has an unknown return date.
$69.7 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Over the cap, with a $4.65 million trade exception (Mozgov).
Interesting trade piece(s): Arron Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Darrell Arthur, JaVale McGee, J.J. Hickson and Randy Foye.
Note: The struggling Nuggets are likely sellers, if they can get a quality return from some of their veteran players.
$63.1 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Greg Monroe, Jonas Jerebko and Joel Anthony.
Note: Earlier in the season, when the team was awful, Monroe seemed like an obvious player for Detroit to move. His play, along with the team’s, in the absence of the waived Josh Smith, may inspire the Pistons to gamble with Monroe in free agency.
Golden State Warriors
$72.4 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap and hard-capped.
Interesting trade piece(s): David Lee.
Note: The Warriors are the best in the West, so chemistry may trump future concerns. At some point Lee may have to go (in favor of Draymond Green on a new contract this summer) — a taker for his $15.5 million for 2015-16 may not be readily available. Likely an issue for another day.
$76.0 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap and hard-capped.
Interesting trade piece(s): Jason Terry.
Note: The Rockets need health more than they need to make a trade, but general manager Daryl Morey is always looking aggressively to improve (possibly at point guard).
$74.8 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap and hard-capped. The Pacers have a disabled player exception for Paul George ($5.3 million) and a $4.3 million trade exception (Danny Granger).
Interesting trade piece(s): Roy Hibbert and Luis Scola.
Note: The Pacers may just hold on until George is healthy with the current core, which may actually happen in March (after a brutal broken leg).
Los Angeles Clippers
$79.6 million payroll with 13 guaranteed players. Over the cap, tax threshold and hard-capped.
Interesting trade piece(s): Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes.
Note: The Clippers have been hampered by the hard cap all season. Instead of another trade (after acquiring Austin Rivers), the Clippers may need to improve via free agency.
Los Angeles Lakers
$70.2 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap. The Lakers have $4.8 million (Steve Nash) and $1.5 million (Julius Randle) disabled player exceptions.
Interesting trade piece(s): Jordan Hill, Jeremy Lin, Steve Nash and Ed Davis.
Note: Hill can block a trade, unless the Lakers opt him into the second year of his deal. Lin’s $14.9 million salary is on the books for $8.4 million, but an acquiring team would take on that financial burden. Nash is an expiring contract. The Lakers seem to like Davis enough to risk losing him in free agency.
$74.6 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap and hard-capped. Memphis has a $3.1 million trade exception (Quincy Pondexter).
Interesting trade piece(s): Kosta Koufos.
Note: The Grizzlies already landed Green and are one of the best teams in the league nearing the deadline.
$72.1 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Norris Cole.
Note: With investments in Mario Chalmers and Shabazz Napier, Cole may be expendable if Miami can find value.
$56.3 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Under the cap by $6.7 million.
Interesting trade piece(s): John Henson and cap space.
Note: Larry Sanders’ drug suspension ends soon, which means the Bucks will have to get back down to 15 players. With Sanders struggling most of the year, Henson may be too valuable of a rotation player to move.
$64 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Over the cap and hard-capped. The Timberwolves have two sizable trade exceptions: $6.3 million for Kevin Love and $4.7 million for Brewer.
Interesting trade piece(s): Mo Williams and Thaddeus Young.
Note: Young may not be on the trade block but a veteran like Williams might land the Wolves some future considerations.
New Orleans Pelicans
$68.8 million payroll with 13 guaranteed and one 10-day contract. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Ryan Anderson, John Salmons and Eric Gordon.
Note: Salmons only makes $2 million while Gordon may make too much to deal ($14.9 million with a player option next season at $15.5 million). The Pelicans haven’t seemed interested in moving Anderson.
New York Knicks
$81.4 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap and the tax threshold. New York has a $6 million trade exception for Smith.
Interesting trade piece(s): Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin and Pablo Prigioni.
Note: The Knicks are sellers. While they would love to be rid of Calderon’s contract, they don’t have much else to offer with the veteran’s $22.2 million three-year salary.
Oklahoma City Thunder
$79.1 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Anthony Morrow and Kendrick Perkins.
Note: Will the Thunder pay the tax? That’s their fate unless they trim roughly $2.4 million in payroll. General Manager Sam Presti always seems to cash out a player before they leave for nothing — which may have bearing on restricted-free-agent-to-be Jackson.
$56 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Under the cap by $7 million.
Interesting trade piece(s): Luke Ridnour, Moe Harkless, Andrew Nicholson and cap room.
Note: Could Harkless and Nicholson take on bigger roles now that Jacque Vaughn is out as head coach? The Magic have cap room to make a deal, but no roster space to add a player without making room.
$43.6 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Under the cap by $19.4 million.
Interesting trade piece(s): Andrei Kirilenko, cap room and plenty of future draft considerations.
Note: The Sixers have been using their cap room to add other’s unwanted salary and picks — that’s likely to continue until the deadline. Philadelphia is at 16 players with Kirilenko on suspension.
$61.8 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Under the cap by $1.2 million.
Interesting trade piece(s): Goran Dragic, Miles Plumlee and Gerald Green.
Note: The Suns probably keep Dragic, who can become a free agent this summer. Plumlee has been on the block, but that may depend on Alex Len’s status after a sprained ankle. Green’s expiring contract would have a number of suitors but any with enough value to entice the Suns?
Portland Trail Blazers
$69.4 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap and hard-capped.
Interesting trade piece(s): Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright and C.J. McCollum.
Note: There haven’t been too many signs the Blazers are looking to make a move aggressively. They’ve survived injuries to Robin Lopez and LaMarcus Aldridge and are a top-four team in the West.
$71.5 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap and hard-capped. The Kings have a $5.9 million trade exception for Terry.
Interesting trade piece(s): Nik Stauskas, Ramon Sessions and Derrick Williams.
Note: The Kings would like to add on a power forward to better complement DeMarcus Cousins, preferably one who can both shoot and defend. The team could also use a backup point guard, if Sessions is out.
San Antonio Spurs
$70 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. Over the cap.
Interesting trade piece(s): Corey Joseph.
Note: With Tony Parker and Patty Mills locked in long-term, Joseph may be expendable as a restricted free agent this summer.
$76.1 million payroll with 15 guaranteed players. Over the cap. The Raptors have a $3.4 million trade exception (Steve Novak).
Interesting trade pieces(s): Amir Johnson, Terrence Ross, Landry Fields, Chuck Hayes and Lou Williams.
Note: The Raptors have the expiring contracts, but do they have the inclination to make a deal? Toronto may have peaked early, but they’re still the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Whatever they do or don’t do, the team is right on the cusp of the luxury tax threshold.
$58.6 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players and one 10-day contract. $4.5 million in cap space.
Interesting trade piece(s): Enes Kanter, Jeremy Evans and cap room.
Note: Will the Jazz invest in Kanter, who will be restricted this summer, with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert both under contract for some time? The Jazz may be willing to take on a player with their cap room for future considerations.
$75.8 million payroll with 14 guaranteed players. Over the cap and hard-capped. The Wizards have a $4.3 million trade exception for Trevor Ariza.
Interesting trade piece(s): Andre Miller and the Ariza trade exception.
Note: The Wizards are near the tax threshold with a solid roster in the top-four of the East. The team they have now may be the team they have on February 20.
Teams can always offer protected (or unprotected) draft picks, but unless they have cap room or a trade exception, they still need to match salary. Expiring contracts hold some value, but it’s difficult for a franchise to bring in a game-changing player without giving up something of merit.
Finally, once the deadline passes, a number of veterans may receive buy-outs and the chance to hook up with contenders for a playoff run.
NBA Daily: Ivica Zubac Rounding Into Form For Clippers
David Yapkowitz writes about Ivica Zubac and his strong bubble performances for the Los Angeles Clippers – is he the key for a deep postseason run?
The Los Angeles Clippers have no shortage of star power. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form one of the most dangerous duos in the NBA, and both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are averaging close to 20 points a game each while coming off the bench.
But there is one player on the roster who might be the team’s X-Factor, one player who could hold the key to being able to withstand the imposing frontline of the Los Angeles Lakers – and that’s Ivica Zubac.
Zubac was once a Laker before he was casually tossed aside to the Clippers at last season’s trade deadline. He had shown flashes of his capabilities with the Lakers but spent most of his first couple of seasons in the league with the Lakers’ G League affiliate. Upon his arrival to the Clippers, he immediately became a key player and has since settled into the starting center role.
His arrival to the NBA’s restart bubble in Orlando was initially held up as he had tested positive for COVID-19. He has since joined the team after a mandatory quarantine period and is looking ready to help the team as they gear up for a playoff run.
He admitted that although he only experienced mild symptoms from the virus, he still felt winded and not quite up to speed as he tried to ease himself back into regular game flow.
“It’s much better, it’s much better than when I got here. I can feel it getting better with each practice, each game,” Zubac said on a recent conference call with media.
“After I first started getting back in shape, after I was cleared, I felt like I was out of shape. My chest was a little tighter when I would do some stuff. But I feel great right now. I don’t feel anything. I’m getting back into shape, I’m almost there. It’s going to take some more time.”
Zubac feeling like his old self again has been evident with each passing game. He started slow, only finishing with two points and three rebounds against the Lakers while being outworked by Anthony Davis. Against the New Orleans Pelicans, he looked a bit better, especially with his effort on the glass.
In the Clippers’ third game of the restart against the Phoenix Suns, Zubac put up 18 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 77 percent from the field. He followed that up with his best bubble game to date with 21 points on a perfect 10-for-10 shooting and 15 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks.
Zubac equated his increased production with gradually regaining his conditioning and mobility and getting the feel again for regular game speed.
“I’m getting the feel, I’m starting to remember what guys like, what are the best spots on the court for me. My conditioning is getting better each practice, each game,” Zubac told media after the Mavericks game. “I’m feeling like I can stay on the floor for a while, I can run the floor, I can fight in the post with guys, I can rebound. Everything with my conditioning getting back, I can get on another level in every aspect of my game.”
Before his performance against the Mavericks, Zubac had a pretty solid game against the Suns – but the center was obviously still readjusting to his teammates and being able to make the right reads and be in the correct spots on the floor. He played solid defense on Deandre Ayton, but he also ended up having a costly turnover late in the game that set up Devin Booker’s eventual game-winner.
Following the Suns game, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers had mentioned there were a few areas that Zubac could use improvement in, and he was much more effusive in his praise after his performance against the Mavericks.
“He was phenomenal. We talked about it, he did all the things we needed, he really ran the floor, that didn’t show up statistically, but what it did, it created space, it created mismatches,” Rivers told media after the game.
“I loved that our guys were looking for him. I thought his rebounding was fantastic. Really coming off the way we ended the game the other day with Zu, then coming back, playing like that, that was fantastic for his confidence.”
Throughout the season, Zubac has been a player that doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. He does have a soft touch around the rim and can establish a strong position in the post, but he does a lot of damage when he’s rolling to the rim, cutting and moving without the ball and catching lobs from his teammates.
He’s also a good rebounder who gets points off of offensive putbacks, and he’s a solid defender who acts as the team’s interior defensive anchor. He’s also usually on the bench at the end of games when Harrell is in with the starters. But depending on potential matchups, perhaps against the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, or even the Lakers and Davis, Zubac could find himself finishing some games.
What is certain though, is he’s proving his importance to the team and he’s showing that come playoff time, he could end up being the X-factor. He knows that his teammates are going to look for him and he’s ready for that.
“It’s just communication on the floor, knowing what Kawhi and P.G like, knowing how to get a better angle on a screen, just the plays we run, got to have a better understanding what’s good at the time. It’s mostly communication on the floor,” Zubac said. “It feels great to get rewarded by my teammates after doing all the hard work.”
Free Agency Update: Changes In The Bubble
Drew Maresca explores the free agency implications of the first week of play in the bubble as the NBA continues its return to post COVID-19 play.
Free agency is always a fun time for the NBA and its fans, but particularly so in 2020. Most free agents have usually earned their next deal by the 65th game of any given season – but this year is far from typical. Instead, the NBA has returned, sans its eight worst teams, meaning that competition is consistently better. And with limited competition for our attention, every game is a major event that draws more eyes and has a greater effect on the paydays of to-be free agents.
We’re still only three or four games into the official return of the NBA, but there have already been some changes to how we perceive some players. Take T.J. Warren, for example, who’s averaging over 39.7 points per game through three contests. Or Michael Porter Jr., who looks more like the focal point of a team than a player in his first year of professional action.
This article will focus explicitly on the changes in perception of free agents to-be as a result of their play in the bubble in Orlando. We understand that the players listed below can still hurt their standings and that teams rate free agents differently. While the sample size is small, we’ve seen deals made based on an equally small body of work (e.g., Jerome James to the New York Knicks).
One caveat to keep in mind is the unprecedented fiscal challenges facing the NBA and its club in 2020. Not only will the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably hurt the 2020-21 salary cap, but there’s also still a conclusion to be had with the preseason China situation.
With all of that in mind, let’s explore the players that have made the loudest cases for a payday come this offseason.
Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz – Player Option
Conley Jr. has a player option for 2020-21 – but he played poorly enough through March, relative to what we’ve come to expect from him, that it was more than reasonable to assume he would opt-in at $34.5 million.
But wait, there’s a chance that Conley does us all a favor and makes free agency 2020 more interesting. Conley’s averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, way, way up from 13.8 points and 4.3 assists per game prior to the stoppage in March. If Conley keeps this going – and especially if he performs well in the playoffs – he might want to test the market considering the lack of elite talent that’s anticipated to hit it – assuming he’s unhappy in Utah, that is.
Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans – RFA
Ingram’s looked similar to the guy we saw in 2019-20 before the play stoppage – he’s averaging 23.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game when playing 30 or more minutes. While he was less effective in a loss against the Clippers (14 points and two rebounds in 24 minutes), he’s demonstrated growth in how decisively he makes his move and how seamlessly he then scores on the move.
Ingram was probably going to get max offer as of the All-Star break – especially after reaching his first All-Star team at 22 – but COVID-19 probably altered the ability for teams to dole out lucrative deals. But then play resumed and Ingram picked up right where he left off – and with a confidence to use it liberally. Ingram is nearly a lock for a max deal now.
Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors – UFA
VanVleet started off his time in the bubble with a solid performance (13 points and 11 assists), but he really showed out in his second game against the Miami HEAT. VanVleet led the Raptors to a win against Miami with a career-high 36 points. And then he got right back to being Mr. Consistent for Toronto by posting 21 points and 10 assists in a win against Orlando.
So ultimately, VanVleet has led the Raptors to a 3-0 (re)start, and he’s either scored a career-high or dropped 10-plus assists. James Dolan and Leon Rose are somewhere together – albeit socially distanced, we’re sure – drooling – as are all of the teams in need of a lead guard, like Detroit. VanVleet can only increase his value from here. He’s not assumed to be a max-level player, but if he plays well enough through the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see just how high he can reach.
DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs – Player Option
It’s hard to imagine DeRozan’s value increasing much at this point in his career. After all, he’s an 11-year veteran that has been named to the All-Star Game four times and an All-NBA team twice.
But still, there’s always been presumed limitations to his game, namely his inability to shoot three-pointers. Since being traded to San Antonio, he’s fallen out of the national spotlight a bit. As a 31-year-old capable of reaching unrestricted free agency, DeRozan is at a major inflection point in his career. He could attempt to a final big deal or snag a smaller one if the market for his services doesn’t meet expectations. Or he could just opt-in.
But DeRozan has done his part to remind everyone that he has loads of high-quality basketball left in him. He tallied 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting on Tuesday in a close loss to the 76ers and he’s averaged 22.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game since the Spurs resumed play last Friday. While those averaged mostly coincide with what he did this season, it also represents a decent boost in assists. But more importantly, it solidifies that DeRozan should still receive a serious look as a lead star. And he’ll probably get interest from a number of teams.
The Known Commodities
Marcus Morris Sr., Los Angeles Clippers – UFA
While Morris Sr. is a known commodity, teams could use additional poor performances against him in negotiations. He’ll probably still have the option to sign for a veterans minimum or mid-level exception with a contender like the Clippers or Lakers. But if he’s eyeing another payday that pays him an annual salary equal to what he made in 2019-20, it would behoove him to make his mark on the stat book.
Making A Case
Trey Burke, Dallas Mavericks – UFA
Burke hasn’t been overly consistent since NBA play resumed last week. But he did have a huge breakout game against the Rockets, scoring 31 points on 8-for-10 for three-pointers in only 30 minutes, while also dishing six assists.
Yes, Burke is averaging just 5.5 points in 18 minutes in the two games since, but the fact that he scored 31 in an NBA game will be enough to get looks as an off-the-bench scorer. And it’s a narrative that can be supported by his past work, too. Remember, Burke is still just 27-years-old and he has a 42-point career-high. He’s also exploded for 30 four times and eclipsed the 20-point mark on 38 occasions in his 389 career games. So even if it’s just a reminder, it’s good to know that Burke can still get it done offensively – and teams are always looking for ways to manufacture offense.
Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz – UFA
Clarkson’s shot only 40 percent from the field since play resumed last Thursday, with an even worse 20 percent from three-point range. Still, scorers are as valuable as ever. It’s what made J.R. Smith so much money in this league, as well as Lou Williams and countless others – and rightfully so. Ultimately, it’s about putting the ball in the hoop. And with that being said, a franchise is going to pay Clarkson and they’ll end up paying more than they would have as of March.
Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers – UFA
Jackson has less to prove than most guys in this part of this list – but given his injury history, he does have to make a statement.
On the whole, Jackson has looked good – but not necessarily great. He averaged 12.5 points, seven rebounds and two assists in his first two contests, but he regressed in the Clippers’ most recent game against the Suns. But on a positive note, Jackson received only 23 minutes on Tuesday versus Phoenix and his 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals accumulated in just 20 minutes.
If Jackson continues to be a contributor to the contending Clippers, someone will overspend on him. After all, good point guards are few and far between.
Harry Giles III, Sacramento Kings – UFA
Giles III only played four minutes in the Kings’ first game back against the Spurs and he didn’t fare much better over 12:55 versus the Mavericks on Tuesday. But when you’re a fringe player that had injury concerns throughout your young career, any positive outings are good – especially those that come in a contract year. Giles tallied 23 points and eight rebounds in only 20 minutes against the Orlando Magic – a significant jump from his 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds averages this season. And that’s probably enough to generate interest amongst a number of teams.
The Kings curiously declined Giles’ fourth-year option, making him an unrestricted free agent as of the end of this season. That’s an interesting decision because the option was relatively cheap given that he was only the No. 20 overall pick (2017). Further confusing matters is the idea that by passing on the fourth-year option, they also lost matching rights – so Giles won’t even be restricted.
To make matters worse, the Kings can’t even bid more than $3.9 million to retain his services. So the Kings ultimately wasted a first-round draft pick on Giles for a grand total of 14.5 minutes per game across 99 games – and he’ll walk before they even know what they had in him.
But this all works out nicely for Giles, who will absolutely get an opportunity elsewhere – and he’ll be paid more than he would have received in Sacramento for it. How good is still an unknown, but he’s shown enough for a team to take a flyer on considering his size, skill set and versatility. He was the No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school according to ESPN just four short years ago.
Free agency is going to be different than ever before and, up until very recently, that was assumed to be a bad thing. But with some of the above players changing the narratives around them, it could become even more exciting than it’s been in the recent past. Add in the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Davis Bertans, Christian Wood – and we’re looking at an under-appreciated free-agent class.
NBA Daily: Breaking Down The Bubble’s Race For 8th
Ben Nadeau analyzes the race for the No. 8 and 9 spots in the Western Conference – who will make the cut?
As the NBA inched toward its inevitable rebirth, the instant drama surrounding the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed became a conversation wildfire.
Was the league rolling out the red carpet in hopes of a Zion Williamson-LeBron James showdown in the first round? Could the healthier Portland Trail Blazers make another historic run toward history? De’Aaron Fox, the Sacramento franchise cornerstone, took umbrage over a lack of Kings-related faith, while the Memphis Grizzlies had more than enough ground to protect their standing in the current hierarchy.
Three or so games in to our bubbled adventure, everything has changed – and fast.
The Pelicans, still worrisome over Williamson’s health and conditioning, played him about 15 minutes in each of their first two contests – coincidently, New Orleans went 0-2. With their backs against the wall and slowly losing traction in a muddied race, the Pelicans played the future superstar for 25 minutes, where he racked up 23 points, seven rebounds and used a personal 6-0 run to clinch a much-needed win. Not only did the victory signify an important swing in momentum for the veteran-laden squad, but it was another crushing defeat for Grizzlies, who fell to 0-3 and further loosened their once-gridlocked hold on the final playoff seed.
Long perceived to be a five-team fight for the right to face Memphis in the play-in game(s), the Grizzlies’ early struggles have now nearly opened both spots up. All the more interesting, the San Antonio Spurs have begun 2-1, alongside the Phoenix Suns’ 2-0 effort. Although invited without much media afterthought, both the Spurs and Suns – who boast two of the most reliable constants of the bunch, Gregg Popovich and Devin Booker, respectively – are within the four-game window needed to force a play-in too.
So then: Thanks to the Grizzlies’ scuffles, who’ll be the two franchises to reach that play-in showdown?
Let’s start with the Pelicans, a team that’ll be better the more Williamson is allowed on the floor, obviously. While that variable remains up in the air, New Orleans’ remaining schedule is not. They’ll finish with the Kings twice, plus winnable matchups against the Spurs, Wizards and Magic. Although that opening day loss versus Utah stings, there’s no shame in falling to the Clippers, so the opportunity is certainly still there for the Pelicans to reach Nos. 8 or 9 in the coming days.
The Spurs, following a hard-fought effort against Philadelphia on Monday, unfortunately, have a much harder path forward: Denver, Utah, New Orleans, Houston and Utah. No Magic, no Nets, no Kings, even. Just New Orleans and three teams currently fighting for ‘home court’ advantage in the first round. Of course, betting against Gregg Popovich is beyond stupid and that is a lesson some select few must re-learn every spring – but they still seem like the least likely of six to leapfrog into a spot.
Likewise, it isn’t much better for Phoenix. They’ll conclude with the Clippers, Indiana Pacers and T.J. Warren’s supernova act, Miami HEAT, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. Thankfully, Mikal Bridges’ efforts in Orlando and Ricky Rubio’s trusty playmaking have served as great foils for Deandre Ayton and the aforementioned Booker. Overall, their offensive rating just cracks the top half (15th, 110.4) and their defense remains in the lower half – but stars win games and Booker fits the bill.
Even the Kings, losers to the Spurs and Magic to open their bubble campaign, get the Pelicans twice but also a downright bad Brooklyn Nets squad and a potentially-resting Los Angeles Lakers team in four of their final five games – so don’t count them out either. With their destiny firmly in hand, expect the Kings to make a run of their own. Fox put up 39 points against San Antonio before tallying just 13 versus Orlando – and, in the latter, Sacramento’s only scorer above 15 went to Harry Giles’ 23. Given the context and a very winnable schedule, the next week or so bodes well for the Kings’ hopes.
As for Portland, the squad with the most bankable 1-2 punch of the collection, have an impossibly-tough Rockets-Nuggets-Clippers-76ers run-in before ending with the Mavericks and Nets. Worse, that stretch of difficult opposition will come fast and furious – a classic three games in four days slog. But above all, their defense leaves too much to be desired, even with the return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Before the shutdown, Portland’s defense was only better than the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards at 113.6 in the ratings department.
In the two games back, well, it’s actually been even worse and their putrid 132.0 defensive rating is a whopping 7 points behind the Kings’ 29th-rated unit. It’s early and the sample size is certainly small – but with only six games left, they’ll need to figure it out in the against some of the league’s best. Still, Damian Lillard is a big-moment killer – he did, after all, break up the Thunder core on his own last April – and he’s capable of hot streaks that few others are.
Lillard and Nurkic put up 30 points apiece against Boston – plus 17 from CJ McCollum and 21 notched by Gary Trent Jr. – and totaled 124 as a team… yet it still wasn’t enough. The heroics of Portland’s stars will be relentless, but if they can’t stop the opposition – they’ll come up short.
In the end, even guessing at Nos. 8 and 9 is a fool’s errand. The Bubble has provided shock after shock already – and the added hurdle of rested players for locked-in seeds are soon to come – but six teams will be whittled down to two before long. Despite the slow start, Memphis remains in the driver’s seat – if they can pick up a win on Wednesday versus a seriously-slumping Jazz side, it’ll go a long way toward clinching their place.
And they’d better hope so: If they don’t, they’ll need to hope for some load management with the Thunder, Raptors, Celtics and Bucks to end the mini-campaign. It’s one of the tougher schedules left in the Western Conference, but their cushion, no matter how rapidly it is shrinking, is still reason to believe they’ll limp into the do-or-die scenario.
As for the second spot, it still feels like the Pelicans’ to lose. Between Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, JJ Redick, Brandon Ingram and, duh, Williamson, there’s too much firepower here to completely struggle through an easier-than-most schedule.
But, sure, bet against Gregg Popovich, Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Booker at your own risk – conventional wisdom suggests that at least one of them will crash the party, no matter how unlikely it seems today.