After 10 consecutive seasons of reaching the playoffs, the Atlanta Hawks have hit the reset button and are at the beginning stages of what promises to be a long-term rebuilding project. In recent years the Hawks have been powered by All-Star performers Al Horford, Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap. All three players are now in more promising situations. Teague is the presumed floor general on a revamped Minnesota Timberwolves roster, the Boston Celtics are relying on Horford to help lead them into title contention and Millsap joins an emerging Denver Nuggets franchise filled with promising young talent. The Hawks usher in a new era with a new general manager, Travis Schlenk, at the helm and expecting more production than ever from starting point guard Dennis Schroder. The Hawks have put together a scrappy bunch but will enter the 2017-18 campaign with major losses from last season and even less experience. Expect the team to battle opponents tough each and every night, but the franchise has work to do before returning to the land of the playoffs.
FIVE GUYS THINK…
From a playoff team to potentially the league’s basement, the Atlanta Hawks enter this season in a complete rebuild mode.
Following the departure of Paul Millsap this summer, the Hawks officially lost the final piece of the Millsap-Al Horford-Jeff Teague-DeMarre Carroll-Kyle Korver squad that won 60 games in 2014-15. After spending the last few seasons battling for playoff position, Atlanta will be in the uncomfortable position of battling for draft lottery position instead.
With no real discernible star talent currently on the roster, it would probably behoove the Hawks to set their sights on the upcoming draft where the consensus around the league is the top half of the lottery will be plenty talented. Of course, monitoring the development of rookie John Collins and continuing to bring along Dennis Schroder is still plenty important for Atlanta. Nevertheless, this year will certainly be far from a playoff year for the Hawks.
5th place — Southeast Division
– Dennis Chambers
Sadly, the Hawks seemed to have embraced the fact that being in the middle is the very worst place to be in the NBA. After an impressive string of playoff appearances, the Hawks seem more likely set on a run through the lottery than another run through the post-season meat grinder. With new leadership in place, the Hawks look like a team with a tough season ahead of them. It’s possible their young guys blossom under great coaching, but it looks like likely that this season is going to be a tough one.
5th place — Southeast Division
— Steve Kyler
The Atlanta Hawks made the decision to restructure the front office rebuild its roster this offseason. Not returning from last season’s squad includes players like Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jose Calderon and Ryan Kelly. The Hawks are now surely focused primarily on developing its young players like Taurean Prince and DeAndre’ Bembry while maintaining financial flexibility and making opportunistic deals to acquire more future assets. Mike Budenholzer, who gave up his role as the president of basketball operations this offseason, resisted undergoing a full rebuild for arguably too long and now will have to embrace a down season for the first time as the head coach of the Hawks. Budenholzer is one of the better coaches in the league, but now we’ll get the chance to see how he responds and performs in a rebuilding environment. How he does this upcoming season could have a big impact on how quickly things turn around in Atlanta.
4th Place — Southeast Division
— Jesse Blancarte
By letting Paul Millsap walk in free agency and trading away Dwight Howard, the Hawks have loudly announced their intentions for the 2017-18 season. With only a few NBA starter-level players left on the roster in Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore and perhaps a couple others, Atlanta should be tank city this year in the East. The primary goals this year will be development of the young talent on the roster: Taurean Prince, Tyler Dorsey, John Collins and DeAndre’ Bembry. Figuring out which of these guys fit with the Schroder-Bazemore core is priority one in a season where actual wins should be very tough to come by.
5th Place — Southeast Division
— Ben Dowsett
All good things must come to an end, and the playoff streak of the Atlanta Hawks is no exception. Believe it or not, the Hawks have qualified for the playoffs for 10 consecutive seasons, second only to the San Antonio Spurs (they’ve done it for an amazing 20 years in a row).
Sadly, this season will probably mark the end of the line.
Sure, Mike Budenholzer is a great coach. He led the club to 60 wins just a few shorts years ago and won the NBA’s Coach of the Year Award after they began the 2014-15 season with minuscule expectations, but three of the team’s top six scorers from last season have moved on, including the leading scorer and All-Star in Paul Millsap.
The Hawks are somewhat reminiscent of the Indiana Pacers. Players like Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince are great pieces to complement three more gifted players, but a team built around secondary contributors probably isn’t good enough to compete for anything meaningful, not even in the Eastern Conference.
In the end, I do expect the Hawks to overachieve, but for this bunch, that probably means winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 games, and I don’t think that’ll be enough to escape the cellar of the Southeast Division. It almost certainly won’t be enough to qualify for the playoffs.
5th place — Southeast Division
— Moke Hamilton
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: Dennis Schroder
As talented as Schroder is, most would agree that he would be best suited to be a second or third option on a playoff bound team. However, for the 2017-18 Hawks, the team’s offense will begin and end with him. The fifth-year guard averaged 17.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists last season on 45 percent shooting from the floor, showing tremendous growth while being entrusted with a larger role.
There’s a lot to like about Schroder. The guard has proved to be extremely durable since entering the league, missing only missed 10 games over the past three seasons. Schroder has also increased his scoring, rebounding and assist production in every campaign since his rookie season. He is primed to increase productivity in all of these categories this season without the presence of Millsap and former All-Star center Dwight Howard in the fold.
Top Defensive Player: Taurean Prince
The Hawks had four players ranked in the top 40 of ESPN’s real plus-minus defensive ratings last season. Three of the four – Howard, Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha – are now playing elsewhere. The fourth, Taurean Prince, remains on the roster and should make an even bigger leap next season.
Prince has the size and athleticism to guard at least three positions effectively. Playing acceptable defense at the NBA level is one of the toughest aspects of the pro game for younger players to grasp and Prince made an immediate impact as a rookie – despite limited playing time early on.
The Hawks will likely expect Prince to guard opposing teams’ top perimeter player next season. Prince finished fifth in the league among small forwards in the plus-minus rankings ahead of more prominent players such as LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard. Obviously, Prince doesn’t have the offensive responsibilities the aforementioned three players have but he is positioned strongly to make improvements with a year under his belt.
Top Playmaker: Dennis Schroder
Schroder is unquestionably the Hawks’ floor general and top playmaker as the roster is currently constructed. While there are valid concerns about Schroder’s penchant for erratic ball control and turnovers (3.3 per game in 2017), the fifth-year guard managed to average 7.2 assists per game on a per 36 minute basis last season.
Schroder will be asked to score more this season and will enter the campaign without proven scorers such as Howard, Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. as options for the assist, but the Hawks’ offense is predicated on spacing and ball movement while exploiting defensive holes. Schroder finished second in the league in drives into the lane last season and is one of the elite penetrators in the game today. The ability to get into the paint and create havoc will continue to open up passing windows and create easy scoring opportunities for teammates. With the Hawks lacking many players on this roster that can create their own offense off the bounce, Schroder will be under even more pressure to deliver and keep the offense flowing.
Top Clutch Player: Kent Bazemore
For clarity, we’re defining clutch as the game point differential being five points or less with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter — whether the team is ahead or behind.
The Hawks had multiple players perform above average in the clutch last season. Departed shooting guard Hardaway Jr. was one of the league’s best two guards in late game clutch situations in 2017 and most of the Hawks’ offense in these situations flowed through Millsap. Both are gone.
Logically, we could easily assign this to Schroder, but the fifth-year guard will likely be the focal point of opposing defenses this season and double-teamed at every opportunity. The Hawks will need someone else to step up and hit late game shots.
Incoming shooting guard Marco Belinelli sank 50 percent of his three-point shots in clutch situations last season, so he’s a sneaky option in the Hawks’ offense which is based on spacing. However, Kent Bazemore may be the man for the job. To be clear, Bazemore was abysmal last season in these situations. Bazemore shot just 38 percent from the field and 31 percent from three-point range last season in similar situations. To make matters worse, Bazemore only connected on 46 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe.
But let’s assume the 2016-17 season was an outlier. In 2015-16, Bazemore shot 46 percent from the floor and 46 percent from three-point range while connecting on 92 percent of his attempts from the free throw line.
Will the real Bazemore please stand up? We believe a return to late game form, for Bazemore, is on the horizon.
The Unheralded Player: Ersan Ilyasova
Ilyasova won’t win any popularity contests, but he has proven to be a very consistent performer throughout his career. Think about this: Ilyasova has averaged at least 10 points per game in seven out of nine pro seasons, including the past six years despite never averaging more than 28 minutes in any campaign.
For his career, Ilyasova has averaged 16.2 points per 36 minutes on the floor. The biggest drawback to Ilyasova is his defense, which is a liability. But to end things on a positive, Ilyasova has shot at least 36 percent from three-point range in five of the past six seasons, a trend that should continue in 2018.
Best New Addition: Dewayne Dedmon
Rookie John Collins received plenty of consideration here (and we’ll get to him in a minute), but Dedmon also has a decent amount of upside. Dedmon averaged 5.1 points and 6.5 rebounds last season in San Antonio. Those numbers look pedestrian until you consider he only received 18 minutes of action per night. On a per-36-minute basis, his numbers jump to double-double territory over the past two seasons with the Spurs and Orlando Magic (sample size: 134 games).
Dedmon has played behind Nikola Vucevic and Pau Gasol the past two seasons so there’s a legitimate reason why the minutes have been scarce. The Hawks signed Dedmon to a two-year $12.3 million deal this summer with a player option for the 2018-19 campaign. With Howard traded to the Charlotte Hornets, Dedmon should enter training camp with the starting center position his to lose.
— Lang Greene
WHO WE LIKE
1. Travis Schlenk
The Hawks announced the hiring of Schlenk as their new general manager and head of basketball operations in May. Schlenk spent the past 12 seasons in the Golden State Warriors’ front office, with the last five serving as assistant general manager. This means Schlenk was a valuable part of the Warriors brain trust that constructed one of the best rosters in the game today.
That’s intriguing for sure, but the reason Schlenk makes this list has been his ability from day one to make the tough call. The first decision was to completely revamp the team’s roster. Then the club drafted rookie John Collins. In free agency, the team could have opted to give Millsap, a four-time All-Star, a maximum contract extension worth over $100 million. Schlenk didn’t. The Hawks could have matched the New York Knicks four-year $71 million deal for Hardaway Jr., a restricted free agent. Schlenk allowed him to walk. The franchise could have attempted another year with Howard manning the interior, but Schlenk dealt the former Defensive Player of the Year to Charlotte.
This will be a long rebuilding process, but Schlenk appears to have a clear direction in mind. Keep cap space flexibility, evaluate young talent and protect draft picks.
2. John Collins
The former Wake Forest University product was selected by the Hawks with the No. 19 overall pick in the 2017 draft. Collins quickly turned heads in Las Vegas this summer and was named to the NBA Summer League first-team after averaging 15.4 points and 9.2 rebounds on 59 percent shooting from the field.
Collins was Schlenk’s first draft pick at the helm of the franchise and the big man produced more than a few flashes of explosiveness. Collins’ defense and passing are two question marks heading into his rookie season, but those two traits plague many a young player entering the association.
3. Mike Budenholzer
Budenholzer has compiled a 189-139 (.576) record in four seasons pacing the sidelines in Atlanta. All four of those campaigns resulted in a trip to the postseason. The 2017-18 season will undoubtedly be Budenholzer’s stiffest test as a head coach. The Hawks have a proven system but no longer feature All-Star level talent at key positions. It’s hard to imagine a Budenholzer team not playing with grit and determination, so effort won’t be the problem.
One area where Budenholzer has excelled since joining the franchise is talent development. DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Korver, Bazemore, Hardaway Jr., Millsap and Schroder all took their games to the next level under Budenholzer. Who will be the next player that benefits from Budenholzer?
— Lang Greene
SALARY CAP 101
The Hawks are still under the NBA’s $99.1 million salary cap, with up to $5.0 million to spend. Quinn Cook’s salary guarantee will increase from $100,000 to $500,000 if he’s still on the roster by opening night. Luke Babbitt has an even healthier promise with $987,080 of his $1.5 million locked in. Atlanta also has its $4.3 million Room Exception still available.
The team needs to decide on 2018-19 options for Taurean Prince and DeAndre’ Bembry before November. Looking ahead to next summer, the Hawks can get under the cap by roughly $36 million – assuming both Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala opt out of their respective options of $6.3 million and $5.0 million. Currently, Kent Bazemore is Atlanta’s highest-paid player at $16.9 million for the coming season.
— Eric Pincus
The Hawks are entering into uncharted territory they haven’t experienced in over a decade. On most nights the team will enter an arena as an underdog. One of the strengths this unit has is their athleticism and youth. While youth laden teams don’t typically rack up wins, the Hawks current situation will provide the organization with an opportunity to evaluate the future. Collins, Prince and DeAndre’ Bembry could be potential building blocks. Prince could develop into a fine two-way player, while Collins should be in the nightly rotation playing bigger minutes near the All-Star break (if not sooner). Throw in Schroder, who hasn’t reached his ceiling, and Dedmon with an opportunity to finally earn big minutes, the Hawks have a lot of young and motivated guys with something to prove.
— Lang Greene
The team’s frontcourt depth, specifically at power forward and center, is extremely thin. The collection of Ilyasova, Mike Muscala, Collins, Dedmon and Miles Plumlee have never been entrusted to play major minutes at any time in their respective pro careers. Outside of Ilyasova, none of these guys have put together a season averaging at least 10 points per game. That’s just looking at scoring. None of these players have averaged more than seven rebounds in any of the past three seasons. Of course this trickles down to rim protection, where the team will struggle on a nightly basis. For all of Howard’s issues (and steady decline), he always demanded some respect in the paint from opposing teams. This year’s unit will have to earn theirs.
— Lang Greene
THE BURNING QUESTION
How will Dennis Schroder handle the increased workload, scrutiny and pressure?
Schroder successfully transitioned from top reserve to full-time starter last season in a pretty seamless manner. But now the fifth-year guard will be the team’s focal point and unquestionable best player. Previous security blankets such as Horford, Millsap and Teague are gone. This is Schroder’s show, Schroder’s time to shine. But how will he handle the increased pressure? Many a man has been humbled by moving from the co-pilot to the pilot’s seat. All eyes will be on Schroder until Schlenk and the front office bring in the cavalry.
— Lang Greene
NBA Daily: Potential Free Agent Bargains
With the NBA’s free agency right around the corner, David Yapkowitz identifies some valuable players that could be had for a nice price.
The NBA Draft is in the rearview now which means free agency is right around the corner—this coming weekend, to be exact.
With seemingly few teams having money to spend, it might not shape up to be as crazy a free agency period as some believe.
Already, several players such as the Los Angeles Clippers’ Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic, the Denver Nuggets’ Wilson Chandler and the Atlanta Hawks’ Mike Muscala have chosen to exercise their player options rather than test the open market. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Carmelo Anthony will do the same.
With little money to go around, some free agents are going to have to settle for whatever is left. There might be a few guys who end up signing bargain contracts, and here’s a look at some players who could end up on that list.
Mike Scott – Atlanta Hawks – $1,471,382
One year ago, Mike Scott was recovering from multiple injuries and was seemingly on the borderline between being in and out of the NBA. He signed a one-year contract with the Washington Wizards last offseason and ended up having a resurgent year. He emerged as a key contributor for a Wizards bench that has been one of their weaknesses for some time.
He’s a stretch-four, a perfect fit for today’s NBA game. He put up career-high shooting numbers with 52.7 percent shooting from the field and 40.5 percent from the three-point line. He played well against the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. He’ll fetch more than the minimum contract he signed last summer, but again, it’s a question about how much. Plenty of teams could use a versatile shooting big man with solid defense.
Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors – $1,471,382
Seemingly buried on the Golden State Warriors bench his first two years in the league, Kevon Looney broke out this season and proved he could be a valuable option in the rotation. To begin this season, he was even behind rookie Jordan Bell in the lineup. It wasn’t until Bell went down with a brief injury that Looney got his chance.
With today’s game increasingly moving away from positions and big men needed more of an all-around skill set to thrive, Looney is perfect. He’s shown an ability to guard multiple positions. He can finish well around the rim and he’s active on the glass. One area he could improve on is developing a consistent jump shot, but that’s something that can come with time. Depending on what the Warriors decide to do with JaVale McGee and David West, Looney might be squeezed out from the team. He’s sure to attract interest though around the league.
Jerami Grant – Oklahoma City Thunder – $1,524,305
When he was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers four years ago, Jerami Grant immediately became a solid rotation player. He continued his strong play after coming over to the Thunder in a trade about two years ago. His numbers may not jump off the stat sheet (8.4 points and 3.9 rebounds), but he does a lot of little things that bring value to a team.
In today’s NBA, he’s able to play multiple positions both offensively and defensively. He didn’t shoot so well from beyond the arc this season (29.1 percent), but the year before he connected on 37.1 percent of this three-point attempts. He has that ability to spread the floor. He made $1,524,305 this past season and he most definitely is in line for a bigger payday. How much bigger though is the question. His versatility would be a boost to any team.
Will Barton – Denver Nuggets – $3,533,333
Heading into free agency, Will Barton had the best season of his career. He put up 15.6 points per game on 45.2 percent shooting from the field, 37 percent from the three-point line and 4.1 assists, all career-highs. He was a contender for the Sixth Man of the Year award but he also proved that he could start as well. Known for being a scorer most of his career, he really developed into more of a playmaker this season.
Barton would be an asset to any team looking to add some wing firepower and playmaking to their rotation. Close to the end of the season with the Nuggets making a playoff push, Barton was thrust into the starting lineup for the final 13 games. During that stretch, he put up 19.2 points while shooting 40 percent from three-point range. He’s proved himself worthy of getting paid, it just remains to be seen what those offers might look like.
Isaiah Thomas – Los Angeles Lakers – $6,261,395
A little over a year ago, Isaiah Thomas was the face of the Boston Celtics and a legit MVP candidate. The Celtics were then swept out of the playoffs by the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it was revealed that Thomas had an injury that required surgery. After being dealt to the Cavaliers last offseason, he never really was able to fit in with the team and they jettisoned him off to the Los Angeles Lakers at the trade deadline.
He looked a bit more comfortable with the Lakers but ended up having to shut it down in late March due to lingering injury issues. He once was on the threshold of receiving a max contract, but that doesn’t appear to be so anymore. There’s no question about his value to a team if healthy. He did average 15.6 points and 5.0 assists in 17 games with the Lakers. It’s possible he opts for a one year deal to prove he’s healthy and then test free agency again next summer. In any case, provided his injuries are behind him, he could be a free agent steal.
It will be interesting to see how the free agent landscape unfolds money wise. The players on the list can all be capable contributors to a playoff contender. It just seems like most of the teams with cap room this summer are teams in the midst of rebuilding. These guys could wind up being contract bargains for a contender off the bench.
NBA Daily: Kevin Knox and Kristaps Porzingis Already Have One Thing In Common
Kevin Knox’s experience on draft night was eerily similar to that of Kristaps Porzingis.
Michael Porter, Jr. might be the next Kevin Durant, but he could just as easily be the next Greg Oden.
And if you’re searching for comfort in the wake of the decision of the Knicks to pass on the opportunity to draft the young man who was widely regarded as being the top prospect in the class of 2018, it is pretty easy to find in the fact that of all people, Jerry West decided that Porter wasn’t worth the risk, either.
While Porter might end up being a Hall of Famer, when it comes to drafting prospects, we might as well be shooting in the dark. We all knew that Markelle Fultz was the best option for the Sixers in last year’s draft, and 12 other teams clearly had no idea what Donovan Mitchell had in store for the league.
Heck, two years ago, as I was recently reminded by someone on Twitter, I predicted that the Knicks would select Emmanuel Mudiay with their fourth pick. Instead, they walked away with Kristaps Porzingis.
If I were the man making the call back then, with the information I had, I certainly would have drafted Mudiay. And you know what? That decision probably would have gotten me fired, and rightfully so.
The true moral of the story is that we simply can’t see into the future and all the analytics in the world won’t able to measure things like guts and heart. So as the Knicks pin their hopes on Kevin Knox, it truly will be interesting to see how the career arcs of he and Porter compare.
As for why we would single out the Knicks and make the franchise’s decision to draft Knox over him a personal one, quite a few people in the know relayed the same information on the Knicks and Porter going back to their date at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago in May—they loved each other.
Thereafter, there were reports that the Knicks were looking to move up in the draft, and Porter was on their minds. On Thursday night in Barclays Center, with the Knicks on the clock, their fans in attendance cheered for Porter, as they were hopeful that he would be selected to be the franchise’s next stud.
They were disappointed, and now, they’ll hope that Scott Perry’s decision to go with Knox ends up being the right one. It might be, just like Porzingis was the right pick over Mudiay, and it might not be, just like selecting Frank Ntilikina over Mitchell wasn’t.
Like it or not, though, the two young men will forever be linked, both in my mind and in the minds of plenty of other Knicks fans.
“That’s just motivation,” Knox said of the Knicks fans in attendance chanting Porter’s name.
“A lot of people want him to get to the Knicks, but I mean, it’s all good with me. I’m ready to get to work. I’m ready to get to work and ready to prove people in Summer League and prove people in the NBA.”
Knox’s experience on draft night was remarkably similar to that of Porzingis, and now, if you even so much as suggest trading the Latvian unicorn for a player such as Kyrie Irving, Knicks fans just might call for your head.
It’s strange how quickly things can change for you in New York City. At the end of the day, it comes down to working hard and earning the adoration of the faithful in Gotham City. Porzingis succeeded there, and there’s every reason to believe that Knox will, as well.
“They booed Porzingis (on draft night) and look where he is now,” the rookie remarked.
“They can chant Michael Porter all they want, but they got Kevin Knox, and I’m willing to work and I’m willing to get better.”
When asked, Knox would tell you that he and Jayson Tatum happen to have something in common. According to him, neither of the two really got an opportunity to show what they could do at the collegiate level.
With more opportunities and more repetitions, the sky truly is the limit for the 18-year-old.
“I think I can pretty much play all around the floor,” Knox said.
“I can handle the ball, pick-and-roll situations, make plays, make passes. I can stretch the floor, shoot the ball, get rebounds, push it coast to coast. So I think that versatility in the league is something that a lot of teams really need, and I think that’s something I can bring to the Knicks right now.”
Privately, to members of the Knicks organization, Knox has spoken highly of the spotlight that he’s bound to face in New York and believes that playing at Kentucky helped to prepare him for the type of demanding environment that he’ll be introduced to once the season gets underway in New York. And even without a bad back, the crushing expectations and heavy burden could cause a weaker minded player to crumble.
A FaceTime call with Porzingis on draft night went a long way toward giving the rookie the confidence that he’ll need to thrive in New York.
That the franchise’s pride and joy immediately reached out to his new running mate to congratulate him, welcome him to the team and give him some insight is a good sign. At the very least, it shows that Porzingis takes his responsibility as being the team’s lead man seriously.
At most, it could signal K.P.’s being pleased with the selection.
We’re about to embark upon the story of Kevin Knox. We’ve only seen the preamble.
You can’t judge a book by its cover, and you certainly can’t know how the final chapter will end based on what you’ve read in the first chapter. So no, the Knicks fans that wanted Michael Porter on their squad didn’t get their wish, but in the long run, they may end up being better for it.
Just like Kristaps Porzingis, Knox wasn’t received warmly by Knicks fans on draft night.
Hopefully, for the rookie, it’s not the last thing he and the beloved Porzingis will have in common.
NBA Daily: Lessons From The 2018 NBA Draft
After a wild 2018 NBA Draft, here are four lessons and storylines worth watching over the next few years.
Now that the dust has settled on an unpredictable NBA Draft — what exactly have we learned? In amongst the unrelenting rumors, refused workouts and surprise reaches, there are a few key takeaways from Brooklyn. Of course, some of these are one-off instances, but others are definitely part of modern-day draft patterns. While draft night may sometimes seem like complete chaos or chance, each scenario on this rundown has been boiling over for weeks. Between passing on a talented prospect to letting an injured one slide, here are four important lessons from the 2018 NBA Draft.
Luka Dončić… Not The No. 1?
For months and months, it appeared as if Luka Dončić was poised to become the No. 1 overall pick in this draft. Even today, it’s hard to believe that somebody with Dončić’s age and resume wasn’t the top selection. In 2017-18 alone, the Slovenian took home EuroLeague MVP and Finals MVP plus ACB MVP, with championships in both leagues to boot — but here we are. Dončić averaged 14.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.1 steals over just 25 minutes per game, quickly transforming into the most well-rounded overseas prospect of all-time. But as impressive as Dončić was throughout the spring, the potential ceilings of both DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III eventually won out.
At 7-foot-1, Ayton’s 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game were undeniably worthy of a top selection too, pairing well alongside Devin Booker and Josh Jackson for the foreseeable future. While the jury is still out on Bagley III — his defense needs some major fine-tuning — he won’t take key touches away from De’Aaron Fox either. More or less, nobody wants to be the organization to miss on such a franchise-altering pick. The Suns, Kings and even the Hawks may eventually regret passing on Dončić, but when general managers’ entire careers can depend on making the right choice at the right time, it’s not difficult to understand why the top of the draft unfolded as it did.
Playing Hard To Get Doesn’t Always Work Out…
As draft boards began to take shape, there was one particularly interesting situation sitting at No. 4 overall. Jaren Jackson Jr., solidly leading the second tier of prospects, was looking like a lock at the Memphis Grizzlies’ pick — but with one major caveat: Jackson Jr. reportedly didn’t work out or give his medical information to the franchise. After he was drafted, Jackson Jr. called those rumors “a tad out of context” — but, obviously, those are some massive red flags. Either way, Memphis went with their gut and selected the talented forward anyway.
But beyond all that, Memphis absolutely made the right move by sticking to their guns. Putting a modern three-point shooting, defensive-minded athlete next to Marc Gasol should prove to be an absolute nightmare for years to come. Naturally, Jackson Jr. will get plenty of easy looks from the stellar Mike Conley Jr. too — so if the draftee was once apprehensive, surely that will pass soon. Still, it reflects on a larger NBA pattern, wherein which prospective athletes sensibly look to mold their own path out of college. With players trying to control their draft narratives more than ever, it’s reassuring to see that some franchises will take their target first and then figure out the rest.
We may never know Jackson Jr.’s full thought process behind not working out for the Grizzlies, but there’s a great chance that the former Spartan was made for Memphis’ tough brand of basketball — and we should all be glad we’ll get to see it.
…But Injuries Will Lead To A Slide
Michael Porter Jr. — what a year for him, huh?
After missing out on much of his only collegiate season due to back surgery, Porter Jr. promised that he was feeling better than ever. But over the last month, scouts and front offices were treated to canceled workouts and hazy uncertainty. And, at the end of the day, it probably scared a handful of franchises away from the talented scorer. Just this week, the Kings heavily considered Porter Jr. at No. 2 overall — but even with that sudden unlikelihood passing by, few thought he’d drop out of the top ten altogether. Outside of the guaranteed money that Porter Jr. will miss out on, redshirting his rookie year may also be on the table as well.
The inherent upside with Porter Jr. is obvious, but — similarly to the Dončić issue — it’s tough to ask franchise officials to stake their livelihood on the prospect’s health. If Porter Jr.’s lingering issues stay with him and he never reaches his mountain of potential, that’s a tough pill to swallow. The 19-year-old would fall all the way down to No. 14, where the Denver Nuggets gladly scooped him up. During the combine in May, Porter Jr. called himself the best player in the draft — but it’s now up to him to prove them all wrong.
The Mysterious Men Nearly Miss Out
Let’s rewind to early April. Villanova had been just crowned NCAA champions for the second time in three years, the NBA playoffs were soundly on the horizon and mock drafts had begun to consistently pour out. Early on, there were two athletic big men that looked like shoo-ins as first-rounders: Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson. Despite their undercooked skill-sets, both players pulled out of the combine and then waited for the hype to build — except, well, it didn’t. Williams, who was typically projected in the early teens, slipped out of the lottery entirely, only to be rescued by the Boston Celtics at No. 27. Williams is a booming, powerful prospect, but he could’ve really benefited from competing against the other top prospects in May.
Although he’s now landed in an ideal situation with Brad Stevens, Al Horford and a process-driven Celtics squad, Williams likely cost himself a whole load of money over the last 30-plus days as well.
In Robinson’s case, many believed his floor was the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 25 — rumors swirling that the 7-foot-1 center even received a promise from the illustrious franchise. Instead, Robinson dropped to the New York Knicks at No. 36 overall. Robinson had originally committed to Western Kentucky in July of 2017 before dropping out to prepare for the draft. After skipping the combine last month, Robinson indeed exhibited the potential to be both a steady shot-blocker and three-point maker during his individual evaluations. But with little to go off of but high school highlight reels and small session workout tapes, he understandably fell.
Sometimes the hype is impossible to ignore, but not participating in the combine and staying as mysterious as possible hurt these ultra-talented prospects.
While the 2018 NBA Draft wasn’t quite the trade-heavy, drama-laden extravaganza much of the world expected, there are plenty of narratives to reflect upon. At the end of the day, the ink is barely dry on this year’s festivities and it’ll be some time before there’s any indication of these successes or failures. Still, there are lessons to be learned from every draft, workout or injury process and these are four conversations worth considering as the NBA quickly rolls into the summer league season.