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Basketball Insiders Week in Review 5/22

Basketball Insiders looks at some articles from last week in case you missed any the first time around.

Kyle Cape-Lindelin

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Can the Cavaliers Win It All?

By Moke Hamilton

After speaking for 11 minutes, the candid LeBron James exhaled, put on his sunglasses and exited stage right.

For 11 minutes, he answered all kinds of questions: some about his return to Cleveland, some about Andre Iguodala and some about the losses of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving.

What all of those questions had in common was that they came in the aftermath of the Cleveland Cavaliers faltering due to a talent deficiency and succumbing to the Golden State Warriors in the 2015 NBA Finals.

Collectively, they have been waiting for an opportunity at redemption.

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Utah Jazz Should Restructure Derrick Favors’ Contract

By Eric Pincus

With the salary cap jumping to a projected $92 million in July, a historic rise from this season’s $70 million, teams may struggle to spend enough to reach a salary floor of roughly $82.8 million.

In April, the NBA sent out a memo anticipating teams will collectively fall short of their minimum obligation, based on the agreed-upon split of Basketball Related Income, by $375 million — an average of $12.5 million per squad.  Any franchise still under the floor by the end of the 2016-17 season will be required to cut a check to their rostered players for the difference.

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50 Predictions Revisited (Part 1)

By Joel Brigham

On the one hand, the month of May means all of the NBA’s most fun things. It means Conference Finals and NBA Draft Combine and annual awards, but on the other hand it also means that it’s time for me to take my medicine and revisit the 50 NBA predictions I made in the fall.

Every year, I begin this project with extremely high hopes. I tell myself that this year will be different, that this is the time where I finally break through and get the overwhelming majority of my predictions correct. But these predictions are hard. In fact, I purposefully make them that way because if they were too easy, I’d get just as much flak in going 50-for-50 on “no duh” predictions as I do for going 25-for-50 on ones that take a little bit of gumption.

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Big Summer Ahead for the Miami HEAT

By Alex Kennedy

The Miami HEAT’s season came to an end on Sunday when they were eliminated by the Toronto Raptors in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

All things considered, it was a successful campaign for the HEAT, who were without Chris Bosh (blood clot) for the second half of the season and Hassan Whiteside (knee) for the end of their second-round series. Miami finished the regular season with 48 wins and secured the third seed in the East. They had the NBA’s seventh-ranked defense (allowing just 101.6 points per 100 possessions) and 12th-ranked offense (scoring 104.2 points per 100 possessions).

Now, Miami’s focus will shift to one of the most important offseasons in franchise history. Depending on what happens this summer, the HEAT could have a drastically different roster when next season begins.

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Free Agents Who Increased Value in Playoffs

By Cody Taylor

Each year during the playoffs, we see players step up and elevate their game when the spotlight is brightest. With their season on the line, players will do whatever it takes to help their team achieve the ultimate goal of winning a championship.

We expect the top players in the league, like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook among others, to rise to the occasion and lead their teams. While it’s important for those players to turn the intensity up, it’s also extremely important for role players to step up as well.

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Controlling The NBA Draft Process

By Steve Kyler

The 2016 NBA Draft Lottery will take place tonight in New York, and the exact order for June’s NBA draft will be decided.

From there, the game of who will get access to top overall prospects Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram will begin.

A recurring theme from this year’s NBA Draft Combine was that the agents for the top-tier players are being hyper aggressive and there are many who are not hiding the fact they intend to control the process for their guys even if it means a player ends up going a few spots lower than maybe the player would like – if only to ensure the player’s lands in an ideal situation.

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Taurean Prince’s Versatility is an Asset

By Jesse Blancarte

With the way the NBA has evolved over the last few seasons, general managers are constantly looking for versatile players. This includes 3-and-D players who can spread the court with their shooting, lock down an opposing wing player on defense and play multiple positions. This also includes well-rounded players who may not thrive at any single thing, but whose collective skill set helps a team significantly, such as through setting effective screens, grabbing rebounds, defending the rim, guarding opposing players and knocking down open shots – think of, say, Draymond Green.

The Golden State Warriors assembled a collection of versatile players and have utilized that dynamic over the last few seasons with great success. Green, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes are the type of versatile players who can play multiple positions, have multifaceted skill sets and can switch seamlessly on defense whether it’s against bigger or smaller players. The rest of the league is trying to emulate this, as we saw with players like Khris Middleton and DeMarre Carroll receiving large paydays in free agency last offseason.

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Free Agents Hitting The Market Injured

By Lang Greene

Free agency is an exciting time for fans, but also for most players since it is a time to fully cash in on years and years of hard work in the gym. However, every year there are more than a few free agents who will head into the summer months injured and facing the prospect of toiling long hours in rehab attempting to regain their form.

Franchises face a huge risk opening up their wallet for an injured player. In past years, these teams would be insulated by market forces and a salary cap that increased a slight percentage. But this summer, the salary cap is expected rise in the neighborhood of $90 million and nearly half of the league is projected to have significant cap space to potentially become free agency players. Put simply, there will be plenty of money flowing and with a salary cap floor of $82 million, these injured guys may still get paid.

Let’s take a look at some free agents who will head into the market this summer recovering from an injury:

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Pros and Cons of Knicks Hiring Jeff Hornacek

By Tommy Beer

Phil Jackson’s strange, rambling journey to name the New York Knicks’ new head coach seems to be nearing its completion.

According to Howard Beck of Bleacher Report, the Knicks are closing in on naming Jeff Hornacek their new coach. “It’s ‘as close as humanly possible,’ per source, [though] not official. Deal is expected soon, barring any unforeseen snags.” Beck tweeted on Wednesday evening.

The are plenty of potential pros and cons to this decision from a Knicks perspective. Let’s take a quick look at a few of each.

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LeBron James’ Workload Has Never Been So Light

By Ben Dowsett

Most of us wouldn’t get out of bed in the morning if it involved burning the raw energy necessary to play one minute of basketball in LeBron James’ body. Every step in his 6’8, 250-pound frame is that much heavier and burns that many more calories. Fueling this human fighter jet is just a different operation altogether than the typical recovery process for virtually any other athlete in the world, much less the average person.

It hasn’t been easy during King James’ run of five straight NBA Finals appearances, and a few instances where the tank has come dangerously close to empty have been notable. Dehydration cramps have been a recurring issue on the game’s biggest stage, from his one-legged heroics against the Thunder during his first title win in Miami to a Game 1 in San Antonio marred by a malfunctioning AC and the resulting cramps that kept him out of a pivotal fourth-quarter collapse.

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Los Angeles Lakers Finally On The Upswing?

By Jabari Davis

The Los Angeles Lakers continued their upswing in terms of positive organizational momentum by landing the No. 2 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft (June 23), but that hasn’t stopped some from still questioning the direction of the franchise. Following the most brutal stretch of the team’s history – three consecutive “worst seasons ever”- the Lakers finally appear to have things headed in the right direction, but that still doesn’t seem to have eased the minds of analysts like ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith and even some of the less optimistic fans that still express distrust with the front office.

We can rehash and debate the steps and/or missteps that led to the team’s current situation to no end, but the fact remains they have an intriguing young core of players, as much as $68.3 million to work with on the market this summer and a pick that will land them either Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. While there have admittedly been some questionable coaching hires from a timing standpoint, and failed free agency strategies and moves along the way, you cannot deny these Lakers are in a pretty good spot as first-year head coach Luke Walton gets set to take over the reigns once his season is complete with Golden State.

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Kyle Cape-Lindelin is based out of Portland, OR covering the NBA while being one of the newsline editors and contributor to "Out of Bounds."

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NBA

Rookie of The Year Watch – 12/13/17

Shane Rhodes checks back in on what’s become a relatively consistent Rookie of the Year race.

Shane Rhodes

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It has been a pretty ho-hum Rookie of The Year race so far in the 2017-18 season, with the top rookies staking their claims to this list at the beginning of the season and, for the most part, staying there. While there has been some movement up and down over the season and since our last installment, for the large part those who were on the list remain on the list.

Those players have earned their spots on this list with their play, however. This rookie class is one of the better, more exciting classes in recent memory. These players have just managed to remain at the top of the hill.

Let’s take a look at this week’s rankings.

stockup456. Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls (Last Week: Unranked)

By virtue of John Collins missing time due to injury, Markkanen jumps back onto this list. However, that’s not to say Markkanen has played poorly this season. On the contrary, the former Arizona Wildcat and current Chicago Bull has played very well; it’s just hard to get recognized when you are on the worst team in the league.

Markkanen is averaging 14.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, third and second among rookies, respectively, while adding 1.3 assists per game as well. Athletic enough to get his own shot and big enough to be a mismatch when he’s on the floor, Markkanen is probably the best (healthy) offensively player the Bulls have. While his defensive game isn’t great, his defensive rating of 106.4 still ranks ninth amongst rookies.

Perhaps most importantly, Markkanen inspires hope for a brighter future in Bulls fans that have watched the team plummet from the 50-win team it was just three seasons ago.

stockup455. Dennis Smith, Jr., Dallas Mavericks (Last Week: 6)

His shooting percentages continue to underwhelm and the Dallas Mavericks still have one of the worst records in the NBA, but Dennis Smith Jr. has been one of the Mavs’ bright spots this season while averaging 14.4 points, four rebounds and four assists per game.

While he hasn’t been a great shooter overall, Smith Jr. has managed to be a big contributor on offense for the Mavs, with an offensive rating of 101.4, ninth among rookies, and an assist percentage of 25.2 percent, fourth among rookies. He is second on the team in scoring behind Harrison Barnes’ 18.4 points per game as well. He is still a work in progress, but Dallas has found a keeper in Smith Jr.

stockdown454. Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers (Last Week: 3)

While the Lakers have stumbled over the past few weeks, Kuzma continues to play well when he is on the floor. He still paces the Los Angeles Lakers in scoring with an average of 16.1 points per game, third among rookies, while also dishing in 6.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game.

Kuzma is now second among rookies in double-doubles with eight on the season and three in his last five games. With a diverse offensive game, the power forward should continue to impress as the season goes along.

stockup453. Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz (Last Week: 4)

Donovan Mitchell has been electrifying in recent weeks. Second in scoring among rookies, Mitchell is averaging 17.3 points per game to go along with three rebounds and 3.2 assists. As his confidence has grown, so to have his field goal percentage and three-point percentages. Mitchell has led the Utah Jazz in scoring in 11 of their 27 games, and is second on the Jazz in scoring too, behind Rodney Hood’s 17.7 points per game.

Mitchell became the second rookie ever, first since Blake Griffin in 2011, to score more than 40 points in a single game after going for 41 against the New Orleans Pelicans. Coupling that with his high-flying athleticism, Mitchell has been one of the best rookies to watch this season.

stocknochanges452. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (Last Week: 2)

Jayson Tatum is on pace to be only the second rookie ever to lead the league in three-point percentage. In over 38 years, the only other player to do it was Anthony Morrow, who shot 46.7 percent on 2.7 attempts per game during the 2008-09 regular season. Tatum is currently shooting 50 percent on over three attempts per game.

The 19-year-old forward has also made a near seamless transition from the isolation-dominated basketball that he played at Duke, and has flourished as the third, fourth and sometimes even fifth option on offense, having scored in double digits in 25 of 29 games and averaging 13.8 points per game on the season. His defense continues to be better than advertised as well.

Tatum has been Mr. Clutch among rookies as well. In the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime, Tatum has 14 field goals on 21 attempts, seventh in the entire NBA and tops among rookies. In fact, Tatum is the only other rookie in the top 15 in clutch field goals.

While Mitchell has been on fire recently, Tatum has performed well enough to this point where he is still in control of the number two spot among rookies. But the race for this second spot is close and will continue to be close throughout the season. The race for the number one spot on the other hand? Not so much.

stocknochanges451. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers (Last Week: 1)

It would make for a very boring race if Ben Simmons remained at the top of this list for the entire season. And it looks increasingly likely that that is going to be the case.

Try as they might, the other rookies just can’t hang with Simmons; none of them have the right combination of production and physicality to keep pace with the point-forward. Tatum has been better than advertised while Mitchell and Kuzma have exceeded all predraft expectations, but none of them can produce what Simmons has. With averages of 17.5 points, 8.9 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game, Simmons would be just the second rookie in NBA history, the first since Oscar Robertson during the 1960-61 season, to finish the season with that stat line.

So, unless they combine their powers to become a being with superhuman basketball skills, the other rookies don’t stand a chance against Simmons in the race for Rookie of the Year.

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Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: Another 2018 NBA Mock Draft – 12/13/17

Basketball Insiders’ publisher Steve Kyler drops his latest 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Steve Kyler

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A little less than a month ago we dropped the first 2018 NBA Mock Draft, which was met with a lot of disdain. Which is often a good thing because it sparks the discussion in NBA circles.

Since that Mock dropped, we’ve seen a bit more play out of some of the top prospects and many of the assumptions made almost a month ago are starting to settle into place a little more clearly.

The prevailing thought from NBA scouts and executives is that the possible 2018 NBA Draft class has a lot more questions than answers. The common view is that outside of the top 3 or 4 players there could be a very wide range on who the next 10-12 players will be; so expect for the second tier to evolve a lot over the course of the college basketball season.

A couple of things have started to surface among NBA scouts and executives, there seem to be three camps emerging around the top overall player – Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and international phenom Luka Dončić, seem to be the leading names mentioned most, with Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton making a strong push into the discussion. We can safely call this a three-horse race at this point.

The prevailing belief is that none of the three is far and away better than the other as a professional prospect, making it more likely than not that the top player selected will have a lot more to do with which team ultimately lands the pick, more so than the player themselves.

This class also seems to be brimming with promising athletic point guards, which unlike last year’s draft, could provide a lot of options for teams still trying to find that impact point guard.

There also looks to be 27 players in the projected top 100 that are 6’10 or bigger, eight of which project in the top 30. To put that into perspective, there were 11 players 6’10 or bigger drafted in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft, and 17 total in the 60 2017 NBA Draft selections.

As we get into the 2018 calendar year, we’ll start to do deeper dives into the tiers of players and their possible NBA strengths and weakness.

So, with all of that in mind, here is the second 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would not convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

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Insiders Podcast

PODCAST: How to Keep LeBron in Cleveland

Basketball Insiders

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The media seems to think LeBron is as good as gone this offseason, but Joel Brigham and Spencer Davies discuss why that may not be the case. That, and conversation about whether NCAA or Euroleague success is more valuable in evaluating draft talent.

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