For most of the NBA’s history, talented centers have frequently been crucial centerpieces for championship teams. Having a top-tier center was all but essential for sustained success. This was especially true during the NBA’s formative years. For instance, from 1957 through 1980, 22 of the 23 players named MVP were centers. Yes, only once over the course of that 23-year period did a non-center (Oscar Robertson in 1964) take home MVP honors. And in the 1990s, big men were again front and center. For instance, in 1993-94 (following Michael Jordan’s first retirement) four centers finished in the top-five in MVP voting (Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal and Patrick Ewing).
However, today’s NBA is far different in many ways. Traditionally dominant back-to-the-basket centers are all but extinct. Guards and wings dominate the league. A center hasn’t taken home MVP honors since the early 2000s. In fact, over the last 10 years, only once has a center even cracked the top three in MVP voting.
Nonetheless, many bigs still play an undeniably important role on many great teams throughout the league. As Pat Riley was famously fond of saying: “No rebounds, no rings.” That old adage still holds true today. Furthermore, the best teams in the NBA consistently rank in the top-10 in defensive efficiency. Rim protectors and big men that patrol the paint are often the last line of defense.
Thus, centers and power forwards still hold plenty of value, especially for teams that have plenty of complimentary pieces but are missing a burly big man to help anchor the offense and defense.
Fortunately, for teams such as the Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors who may need such a player to help push them over the top, there are number of quality centers that will likely be available (for the right price) on the open market in the coming months. The NBA’s trade deadline is now less than two months away and many offseason signings become eligible to be traded on December 15th, which increases the chances of deals being discussed and, eventually, consummated.
Here is a list of the most valued and desired big men that may potentially be on the block:
DeMarcus Cousins – Sacramento Kings:
It’s extremely rare that a player as talented as Cousins is available via trade. However, the clock is ticking on the Kings, who have some very difficult decisions to make in the very near future. DMC’s current contract expires at the end of next season, which means he will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2018 unless the Kings sign him to an extension prior to that date.
The relationship between Sacramento and Cousins has been rocky at times, to say the least. He has failed to co-exist with a number of different head coaches. Cousins’ inability to control his temper has also resulted in a league-leading nine technical fouls already this season. And looking at the big picture, the Kings have yet to qualify for the postseason even once in the six seasons he has spent in Sacramento.
On the flip side of the coin, it could easily be argued that Cousins has been a victim of the dysfunction in the Kings organization. More importantly, Cousins may be the most physically gifted center in the NBA today. There simply isn’t anything he can’t do on a basketball court. He is on pace to become the first player since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000-01 to average at least 28 points, 10 rebounds and three assists per game over the course of a full season. In fact, dating back to 1975, there have been only five players to average 28/10/3: Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, David Robinson, Karl Malone and Shaq.
For obvious reasons, Cousins will be extremely costly for any team willing to engage the Kings in trade talks. Still, Sacramento is in a tough position. If they don’t trade him and then fail to re-sign him in 2018, it would be a crippling blow for the franchise, one from which it would extremely difficult to recover. If they are going to move him, it would behoove them to do so sooner rather than later. If they attempted to trade him in 2018, he would be viewed only as a rental. They would be able to ask for far more in return if they would be willing to trade him this season.
Greg Monroe – Milwaukee Bucks:
It has been a disappointing season for Monroe in Milwaukee. He hasn’t started a single game and was banished to coach Jason Kidd’s doghouse last month. For a while, he was the odd man out in the middle (behind John Henson and Miles Plumlee) and seeing very limited playing time. He was even surprisingly slapped with a DNP-CD on November 17th.
He has played a bit better of late and has earned more consistent playing time. Still, his numbers are well below his career averages. Over his last 15 games, Monroe is averaging just 8.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 0.3 blocks.
Monroe has a player option in his contract that will allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in July of 2017. Considering his reduced role in Milwaukee and the incredible contracts secured by even mediocre players this past summer as the salary cap continues to rise, it would be surprising if Monroe did not opt out in July. As a result, it is safe to assume the Bucks will be very motivated sellers at the deadline, hoping to move Monroe in exchange for assets that could advance their rebuilding efforts. Still just 26 years old, Monroe averaged over 15 points and nine rebounds per game in each of his final four seasons in Detroit. There will likely be plenty of interested suitors if the Bucks’ asking price is reasonable.
Nerlens Noel / Jahlil Okafor – Philadelphia 76ers:
The Sixers have four young centers on their roster: Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Richaun Holmes. Three of them (Noel, Okafor and Embiid) were drafted in the top half of the lottery. Now that all three are (almost) finally healthy, coach Brett Brown is tasked with the very difficult job of figuring out how to distribute minutes in an attempt to keep them all happy. Noel let his feeling be known on the eve of training camp back in October.
“I don’t see a way of it working. It’s just a logjam,” Noel said. “You’ve got three talented centers that can play 30-plus minutes a night and three centers can’t play 30 minutes a night. That’s that. Things need to be situated. Obviously, somebody’s got to be moved around. It’s a tough situation, but I can only say so much because I have no say and no power.”
Noel said this before Embiid started playing incredibly well once the regular season commenced. Embiid is the run-away favorite to take home the NBA’s Rookie of the Year Award. His per-36 minute averages are mind-boggling: 27.8 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.9 blocks. It is safe to assume that Embiid is now untouchable. Consequently, the Sixers will likely focus on attempting to move Noel or Okafor. Okafor is under team control on his rookie contract for at least two more seasons, whereas Noel will be a restricted free agent this summer.
Okafor had a roller-coaster rookie campaign. He had a number of issues off the court and struggled mightily on the defensive end of the floor. However, Okafor was arguably even better than advertised offensively. In fact, Okafor became just the sixth player in NBA history to average at least 17 points and seven rebounds while shooting above 50 percent from the floor, all before turning 21. Per Basketball-reference.com, the other five members of that exclusive club are Magic Johnson, Adrian Dantley, Chris Weber, Shaquille O’Neal and Karl-Anthony Towns. This season, Okafor has been hampered by his own injury issues and has struggled as a sophomore. However, he still possesses the potential to develop into one of the NBA’s truly elite low-post scorers.
When healthy, Noel is one of the more versatile and athletic defensive-minded big men in the NBA. In 2014-15, he became the first rookie in NBA history to average at least 1.7 blocks and 1.7 steals per game. Noel was back at it again last season, patrolling the paint in Philadelphia, leading the 76ers in defensive rebounds and steals and was second on the team in blocks. His offensive game is limited, but he could flourish in the right situation.
Kenneth Faried – Denver Nuggets:
Like the Sixers, the Nuggets simply have too many bigs crowded in their frontcourt. Faried, Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic are all averaging between 21 and 24 minutes per game. They also have Danilo Gallinari playing 35 minutes a night and Wilson Chandler at 30.8, in addition to Darrell Arthur and Juan Hernangomez seeing 12-plus minutes per game off the bench.
Faried is the player most likely to be dealt in order to alleviate the logjam. Both Jokic and Nurkic on are making less than $3 million this season and next. Faried is set to make $12.9 million in 2017-18 and $13.8 million in 2018-19. He’s averaging career-lows in points (nine) and minutes (22.4), while also averaging fewer than five defensive rebounds per game for the first time since his rookie campaign. Nonetheless, he has shown intermittent flashes of excellence, specifically the energy and tenacity that earned him his large contract. He’s played over 22 minutes in 15 games this season and posted a double-double in five of those contests.
Brook Lopez – Brooklyn Nets:
It seems as though Lopez’s name has been bandied about in the rumor mill going on three years straight. In some respects, it seems logical for the Nets to trade away their best player for a package that facilitates their ongoing rebuild. However, the Celtics own Brooklyn’s first-round pick each of the next two years, so the Nets don’t have the same motivation to strip down their roster and bottom out as do many of the other teams near the bottom of the NBA barrel.
Lopez was already one the most dangerous offensive centers in the league, and this season he has added the three-point shot to his arsenal. Coming into this year, Lopez had made a total of three three-pointers over the first eight seasons of his career (487 games). This season, through just 21 games, Lopez has knocked down 42 triples. He is one of just four players with at least 40 three-pointers and 30 blocks this season, joining DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant and Kristaps Porzingis.
Tyson Chandler – Phoenix Suns:
Chandler has been a rebounding machine this season, especially of late. He averaged 11.3 rebounds per game in October, then 12 in November. For December, he’s up to 13 boards per contest. In fact, Chandler has pulled down 44 rebounds in the Suns’ last two games alone. His contract isn’t appealing (he’ll make an average of $13 million per year over the next two seasons) but that is a bit easier to swallow with the cap increasing.
Andrew Bogut – Dallas Mavericks:
Bogut is on the shelf at the moment, dealing with a bone bruise in his right knee which could keep him sidelined through the end of the month. Staying healthy is obviously a major issue, but he is a force, especially on the defensive end, whenever he is even remotely close to 100 percent. He’s playing out the last year of his contract, so if he is back on the court and playing well in February, he could be intriguing to a team that is looking to rent an elite rim protector for the final few months of the regular season and into the playoffs.
Nikola Vucevic – Orlando Magic:
Over the past two seasons (2014-15 and 2015-16), Vucevic averaged 18.8 points, 10 rebounds and 2.3 assists. It certainly seemed he was viewed as a franchise cornerstone and the Magic’s center of the present and the future. Then, on draft day this past summer, the Magic traded for Serge Ibaka. But Ibaka can play power forward, so that wasn’t a huge deal, right?
Well, in July, Orlando signed Bismack Biyombo to a four-year, $72 million contract.
Vucevic has now been coming off the bench consistently for the first time since his rookie season. As a result, his scoring average has plummeted (12.2 points per game) and he hasn’t been able to find his groove this season. He’s locked into a relatively cap-friendly contract, making less than $13 million per year through 2018-19. If the Magic would be willing to listen to offers, there would be plenty of teams willing to take Vooch off their hands.
Timofey Mozgov – Los Angeles Lakers:
Many pundits panned L.A.’s signing of Mozgov as soon as it was announced and, unfortunately for the Lakers, the early returns have not been overly encouraging. Mozgov, at 4.7 rebounds per game, is currently fifth on the Lakers in rebounding, behind Julius Randle, Larry Nance, Tarik Black and Luol Deng.
Joakim Noah / Willy Hernangomez / Kyle O’Quinn – New York Knicks:
Depth is a good problem to have, but it’s an issue nonetheless. Noah is signed to a massive contract and it was assumed he would handle the bulk of minutes at the five and do most of the heavy lifting down low. However, Kyle O’Quinn is playing some of the best basketball of his career and has earned the right to increased playing time. Over his last six games, O’Quinn’s per-36 minute averages are undeniably impressive: 16.3 points, 16 rebounds and 2.6 blocks, while shooting 64.8 percent from the floor. In addition, he now leads the team in PER (21.5) this season.
Hernangomez has been also been a pleasant surprise for the Knicks. He currently leads the team in both True Shooting percentage (60.6) and Effective Field Goal percentage (57.9) and ranks first on the Knicks in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions (11.6).
Add to the equation that the team’s best player, Kristaps Porzingis, is at his best when playing at the five, and the situation only gets murkier.
If Derrick Rose’s injury is in any way serious, might the Knicks consider trading from their surplus of bigs to add depth in the backcourt?
NBA DAILY: Free Agent Watch – Point Guards
Shane Rhodes starts off Basketball Insiders’ new “Free Agent Watch” series, looking at the best free agent point guards set to hit the market this summer.
We’re in the home stretch!
It’s July, and the NBA is set to reconvene in just 26 days — of course, those may be the longest 26 days in recorded history, but the wait is sure to be worth it. Soon enough, and Adam Silver will have crowned the next NBA champions.
Of course, the postseason should come-and-go in an instant, with an infinitely condensed offseason set to follow — and unfortunately, just as the season has, the draft, training camp and, free agency are sure to feel the restrictions of COVID-19. With that in mind, we here at Basketball Insiders are taking another look at the coming offseason, specifically at the soon-to-be free agent class position-by-position.
Today, our first entry in our Free Agent Watch, we’ll look at the point guards. Let’s jump in.
Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors — Unrestricted — $9,000,000
Even with the salary cap expected to dip next season, don’t expect it to keep VanVleet to get anything less than his due.
Just 26, VanVleet is cruising into his prime and has already proven himself an essential fixture on a championship-caliber roster — don’t expect his services to come cheap, and don’t expect him to sit on the open market for long. With VanVleet, however, it isn’t so much about how much he may earn, but where he may earn it. The former undrafted free agent has seemingly made a home in Toronto, but the Raptors face a number of other pressing financial issues in addition to VanVleet’s upcoming free agency.
Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, vital in their own right to Toronto’s championship run a season ago, are also set to hit the market. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam’s contract extension, worth more than $30,000,000 per year through the 2023-24 season, is set to start next season as well. Do Masai Ujiri and Co. see VanVleet as a star to pair with Siakam in the long term, or would the Raptors opt instead to re-sign Gasol and Ibaka (or at least attempt to) in order to maintain a more balanced roster?
Only time will tell. Either way, and in spite of the current global financial downturn, expect VanVleet to get paid rather handsomely — certainly more so than any other point guard expected to hit the market — come free agency.
Goran Dragic, Miami HEAT — Unrestricted — $17,000,450
Relative to the other guards in the free agent crop, Dragic is old. But, even at 34, Dragic, who has transitioned to a reserve role in Miami, should continue to contribute at a high level over the next few seasons.
Dragic started just one game during the regular season, his fewest since his rookie year. That said, the reduced workload had proven a boon for his health; after a (mostly) lost 2018-19 season, in which Dragic played just 36 regular season games, he had rebounded mightily before the league was shut down. In 54 games, he averaged 16.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists and shot 37.7 percent from three.
Given he’s made just three postseason appearances in his career, it wouldn’t shock anyone to see the 14-year veteran Dragic re-up with the HEAT — with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in the fold, Miami should find themselves in the thick of the postseason hunt over the life of Dragic’s next deal. Any other roster — and most would be more than happy to work him in — with a legitimate title shot in the next few seasons wouldn’t be much of a surprise, either.
Would an opportunity to start for around the same (or even higher) contract value persuade Dragic to join an up-and-coming roster or non-contender? It would seem unlikely, again citing his lack of postseason appearances, but it’s something to keep in mind.
Kris Dunn, Chicago Bulls — Restricted — $4,372,072
It would seem as if Dunn’s time in Chicago is over.
Coby White and Tomas Satoransky have displaced Dunn on the Bulls’ depth chart, while their presence would also preclude Chicago from matching any deal worth more than Dunn’s potential $7,091,457 qualifying offer. Meanwhile, the Bulls have a guaranteed lottery pick in a draft loaded with talent at the guard position.
So, what exactly would push Chicago to retain Dunn, or interest any team in adding him as a free agent? Elite defense.
Yes, Dunn has proven a bit limited on offense — he’s not exactly a score-first guard, and his ability as a passer isn’t spectacular, either. But Dunn is a defensive menace, a kind of player any roster looking to make noise in the postseason could take advantage of.
He may not garner the proper respect given the Bulls’ position near the bottom of the league, but Dunn made a legitimate case for an All-Defense nod in 2019; he was second to Ben Simmons in steals per game while he led all qualified players with 2.9 steals per 36 minutes.
Dunn is also more than capable of defending another team’s top offensive option and, given that he may not earn much next season, should prove a steal for any team looking to either shore up their defense or boost it to the next level.
Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers — Unrestricted — $734,025
Jackson may have the most to gain of nearly any player from the NBA’s restart.
Bought out by the Detroit Pistons back in February, Jackson was afforded the opportunity to aid the Clippers in their quest toward the NBA Finals. In doing so, he also has the perfect opportunity to recoup major value he had lost in recent seasons with Detroit.
In recent years, poor play, injury and a bad Pistons roster had relegated Jackson to the scrap heap, knocking him down from a once-promising (or breakout, even) player to an overpaid stat stuffer that didn’t necessarily help the team win games. Yes, on paper, Jackson’s Detroit tenure looked strong — 16.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 35.4 percent three-point percentage in his four full seasons with the team.
But, when you take into account that the Pistons managed to finish with a winning percentage above .500 just once in those four seasons and never finished higher than eighth in the Eastern Conference, those stats start to feel empty.
If nothing else, Jackson needed a change of scenery, and looked strong in his few games with Los Angeles prior to the shutdown. In nine games with the Clippers, Jackson averaged 9.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists and shot a blistering 52.5 percent from the field and 45.2 percent from three in 19.4 minutes per game.
He certainly wasn’t going to earn anything close to the 5-year, $80,000,000 deal he signed back in 2015. That said, Jackson, 30, is young enough that, if he can turn that mini-resurgence into an even stronger postseason performance, he shouldn’t have any trouble finding a long(ish)-term deal next season (and could maybe even play himself back into a prominent role).
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks — Unrestricted — $19,000,000
Teague isn’t the “flashy” move. He certainly won’t swing a series or push a team into title contention.
That said, he’s still capable of solid production. Split between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Atlanta Hawks this season, Teague averaged 10.9 points, 5.2 assists and shot 43.6 percent from the field — not great, but good enough in spot duty and limited minutes off the bench.
Teague also shot 36.8 percent from three, making him a solid addition for any team that has struggled with their shot from the outside.
That said, most interest in Teague may come in his veteran presence. A quality leader, Teague also has plenty of playoff experience, having made the postseason in nine of his 12 seasons. With Vince Carter now retired, the Hawks may opt to bring him back to serve in a similar role, albeit at a massively reduced salary.
These five may prove the best of the bunch, but the point guard group set to hit the market is deep. Expect more than a few to prove solid additions capable of some serious impact. And with that, make sure to keep on the lookout for the rest of our positional Free Agent Watch series later this week.
NBA Daily: The Return – 6 Situations – Pacific Division
David Yapkowitz continues Basketball Insiders’ “6 Situations” series by examining the most timely and pressing issues in the Pacific Division.
In less than a month, the NBA is set to resume the 2019-20 season in Orlando, Florida. And, in just a few short days, teams are set to report for an abbreviated training camp. With that in mind, we started a new series here at Basketball Insiders.
With basketball seemingly at our doorstep, we’re taking a look at some of the more pressing issues each team are set to face as they either make the trek down to Florida or wait at home for an abbreviated offseason. We’ve already covered the Atlantic, Central, Northwest and Southwest divisions and, today, we’ll go over the Pacific.
The Golden State Warriors are the lone team that isn’t set to take the trip to Orlando. That said, they have plenty on their plate, as do the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns. Let’s get into it.
Golden State’s Draft Decisions and Andrew Wiggins Future
If the season does in fact resume without any COVID-19 interruptions, the 2019-20 playoffs are going to feel different without the Warriors. The team that has represented the Western Conference in the past five NBA Finals was dealt a major blow with injuries to both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. They spent much of the season trotting out young players and funky lineups, winding up in a good position to take home the No. 1 overall pick for their trouble.
Of course, what to do with that potential pick is the issue they must address. Both Curry and Thompson are expected to return to the court next season and the two of them, paired with a motivated Draymond Green, should find themselves in the midst of postseason contention. So, do the Warriors draft a player who they’ll potentially have to wait on to develop, or do they trade the pick, perhaps a veteran that could contribute right away?
The incoming rookie class is looking relatively top-heavy draft, with the potential to nab a possible star with a pick in the top five. Make the right pick, and Golden State could set themselves up for seasons to come. And, considering the franchise’s success with the draft (Curry, Thompson and Green were all drafted by the team), it’s easy to envision them making the right pick. That said, would they sacrifice that long-term success for a more immediate impact?
Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins is another matter the Warriors may have to address. In somewhat of a shocking move, the Warriors traded away D’Angelo Russell after only half a season and got Wiggins in return. Wiggins is a talented player, albeit one that hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations as a former top pick and has seen continued criticisms of consistency.
That said, Wiggins is perhaps one of the keys that could accelerate the Warriors’ path back to contention. He’s a talented scorer and should prove a better fit with the team than Russell had and, with Curry and Thompson set to shoulder the offense, they won’t need him to do too much to return to prominence. But, his contract could become cumbersome — how long are the Warriors going to pay Wiggins’ salary for production that may prove no better than Harrison Barnes’ during his time with the team?
Kelly Oubre’s Future in Phoenix
When the Suns make the trip to Florida this month, they’ll be without one of their key players in Kelly Oubre Jr. Oubre, who went down with a torn right meniscus just before the NBA’s pause in March, will spend his time at home, recovering from said injury.
The 2020-21 season is going to be a big one for him, however.
Set for the final year of his contract and based on his play, Oubre would appear to be in line for a nice payday. Prior to the injury, Oubre was in the midst of a career year: 18.7 points per game, 45.2 percent shooting from the field and 35.2 percent shooting from the three-point line. It would seem to be a no-brainer to keep Oubre, who is only 24, as part of this young core.
The only thing that may complicate that a bit is the emergence of Mikal Bridges. In his second year in the NBA, Bridges impressed as he moved into the starting lineup and is poised to take advantage of Oubre’s absence from Orlando. And, next summer, just as Oubre is set to hit the market, Bridges will be eligible for an extension.
With Bridges in line for a rise, would Phoenix also pay Oubre to play much of the same role? The team re-signed him last summer to just a two-year deal, rather than something more long term and, next summer, they could risk losing him if they offer significantly less than some other teams are willing to pay.
Sacramento’s Push Forward
The Kings have been synonymous with futility for nearly a decade — lottery finish after lottery finish and they have almost nothing to show for it. They’ve been hampered by poor decision roster management. Their decision to draft Marvin Bagley III over say Luka Doncic is still up in the air, although many would tell you that it was a horrible choice.
What the team and fans can, and should, take to comfort however is that they are one of the teams being selected for the Orlando restart. When the NBA season was put on temporary hiatus, they were only a mere 3.5 games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. They have a potential franchise cornerstone in De’Aaron Fox. They must do everything in their power to ensure that he stays a King. They ran DeMarcus Cousins out of town, they cannot afford to do that with Fox.
Whatever happens in Orlando, they need to continue their push forward, to maintain an upward trajectory. If they lose Fox, they may never recover as a franchise. They need to ensure that the franchise has nowhere to go but up, or they may risk losing the team to somewhere else entirely.
Lakers Championship Window and Anthony Davis Free Agency
When the Lakers signed LeBron James two years ago, there was little question that they were looking to get back on track as a championship contender. After a few years of lottery-bound teams and high draft picks, they managed to package those assets and bring in Anthony Davis to pair alongside James last offseason.
And, while James has shown no signs of slowing down, at 35 years old and with two more years left on his current contract, there are questions as to how open the Lakers’ potential championship window is. Had this season been scrapped altogether, that would’ve been another year lost for the Lakers and James.
What complicates matters further is the fact that Davis is set to hit free agency this offseason. When he arrived in Los Angeles, he was adamant about his decision not to sign a contract extension and allow himself to become a free agent. From a purely financial standpoint, it makes sense for him to do so — he can re-sign with the Lakers and earn even more money in the long term. But, if the Lakers fail to take home the title, could Davis turn into a potential flight risk?
Logic would say no, as the teams that stand to court Davis can’t offer nearly as much as the Lakers. But, if Davis doesn’t believe the roster can support him and his championship aspirations in the long term, anything is possible.
It may be unlikely, extremely so, even. But stranger things have happened, and it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Clippers Championship Window
Who would’ve thought we’d ever say this, but the most pressing issue facing the Clippers is the exact same one as their across the hallway rivals, how big is their potential championship window? Injuries have been a bit of a concern for the Clippers this season, with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George missing time for various reasons. Both have dealt with major injuries in the past and the “load management” the two may require going forward should be at least mildly concerning.
They also face the same scenario as the Lakers in that, were the season to be scrapped, 2020 would be another year down the drain, a year of health (something that is never a given in the NBA) wasted. And, aside from the injury possibility, both Leonard and George can enter free agency next offseason.
Both players have options on their contract, so the Clippers would probably like to take advantage of this restart and push for a title as quickly as possible. If they fail to win either this season or next, then the possibility of Leonard and George reevaluating their options could become a likely scenario.
If for some reason, the NBA is forced to scrap their plans for the season resumption, each of these teams will be affected. Perhaps none more than the Clippers and Lakers who, due to roster makeup, have to push for a title run as soon as possible.
NBA Daily: The Return – 6 Situations – Atlantic Division
Drew Maresca continues Basketball Insiders’ “6 Situations” series by examining the most timely and pressing issues in the Atlantic Division.
The NBA’s return grows nearer, but new doubts bubble up each day thanks numerous players testing positive for COVID-19 tests and surging virus numbers in numerous states — including Florida, where games will be hosted. Regardless as to whether or not we all agree with its return, we are fewer than 30 days away from NBA basketball. With that in mind, we at Basketball Insiders are going through each division and identifying “6 Situations” we feel are worth keeping an eye on. We’ve wrapped up work on the Northwest, Southwest and Central. Today, we get to the Atlantic Division.
The Atlantic Division is unique in that it’s the only division with four teams currently seeded in the NBA Playoffs (and one of three divisions with four teams returning for the final eight games). Still, many of the Atlantic Division’s major plotlines are rooted in the future and not the remaining eight games or the playoffs. There’s a lot of questions surrounding roster composition, coaching staffs and draft picks. So without further adieu, let’s explore the most compelling situations the Atlantic Division has to offer.
Knicks face another pressure-filled draft
The Knicks really, really need to make the right pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. They don’t necessarily need to win the draft lottery, but they must add another cornerstone player. They missed out on the opportunity to land a guaranteed star last year when they fell to the third overall pick in 2019 despite owning the worst record in the entire league — and that draft featured really only two sure things. They had almost as bad luck in 2018, when they won only 29 games (in 2017-18) and finished with only the ninth-worst record in a relatively star-studded draft. And so on and so forth.
But it’s not as if the Knicks are starting from scratch. There’s Mitchell Robinson, the 36th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, who has exceeded any and all expectations set for him. There’s also RJ Barrett, who looks the part of at least a legitimate NBA starter – and maybe even, dare I say, a star. But that’s about all they can count on. Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox and Dennis Smith Jr. are promising, but possess red flags that hurt their standings with New York and their trade value around the league.
Much of the Knicks’ 2020 draft will be luck. They have the sixth-worst record in the league, so they possess only a 9% chance of winning the lottery and a 27.6% chance of landing a top-three pick. As much as “best player available” is an overused cliché (to the extent that it actually describes a bad strategy almost as often as it’s good), the Knicks should adhere to it. After all, they have so many needs and there’s really only one guy they’d prefer over everyone else (LaMelo Ball). Assuming they aren’t lucky enough to draft him, there’s still Killian Hayes, Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro and Obi Toppin — of whom plug into the Knicks lineup nicely. Even James Wiseman or Anthony Edwards would be nice additions, although their fit is redundant with Robinson and Barrett already in two, respectively.
Long story short, there are lots of options for the Knicks. New York must: A) not slide down in the lottery, which is out of their hands; and B) avoid making a bad selection. Ultimately, a number of teams will consider trading away lottery picks, and the Knicks have a number of other first-round picks they can pair with their 2020 pick to move up. There are lots of options they can consider. They just can’t mess this one up.
While the draft is only partially in their control, the Knicks must also select the right coach
The Knicks have had five head coaches since Phil Jackson hired Derek Fisher in 2014, and they’ve had three team presidents. New team president Leon Rose appears to be fully invested in this coaching search though, lining up a number of interviews with some candidates, some of whom could also be auditioning for assistant roles. There are presently at least eight candidates, but there are clear front runners — and then ones who should remove themselves from consideration fairly quickly. The Knicks should almost certainly avoid chasing gimmicky candidates in hopes of them attracting additional talent — Jason Kidd is a good example. Luring Giannis Antetokounmpo sounds great, but the Knicks have been burned chasing star free agents before — and it’s definitely not a reason to hire a head coach. Another candidate the Knicks should probably avoid is Mike Woodson. Woodson is a brilliant defensive strategist, but he’s already led the Knicks. Granted, he led them farther than any other head coach since Jeff Van Gundy; but the Knicks need a coach to come in and motivate and teach their young roster — and while Woodson is seen as being player-friendly, he’s not thought of as a developer of talent.
Kenny Atkinson should get a long look. He was an assistant coach with the Knicks from 2008-2012, and he’s familiar with the pressure that goes along with being a head coach in New York (Brooklyn). More importantly, Atkinson is thought to be excellent at player development, which bodes well for his candidacy. Tom Thibodeau is another candidate thought under serious consideration. His relationship with Rose, his former agent, should make for a warmer interview. The young Knicks are probably not entirely ready for Thibodeau’s intensity, but he would improve team defense, (probably) mold Frank Ntilikina into a DPOY candidate and bring unparalleled professionalism to the locker room.
There are other candidates who deserve a fair look, too – including interim coach Mike Miller, Mike Brown, Ime Udoka, Jamahl Mosley and Becky Hammon. There are almost too many candidates, but that’s a good problem to have. Now, all the Knicks have to do is pick correctly.
Can Jacque Vaughn solidify his future in Brooklyn?
The Nets were riding incredibly high this time last year (although we all were, relatively speaking). Now, not so much.
The Nets will return to action as the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference. There was essentially no chance of them leapfrogging Philadelphia, but they’re only a half-game up on Orlando. As much as we in the media built up the idea that Kevin Durant might return, that was always a very long shot. Even Kyrie Irving was unlikely to return given that he underwent shoulder surgery in early March. But still, Brooklyn’s young core could benefit from the opportunity to jell under coach Jacque Vaughn.
But much of what Brooklyn (and Vaughn) hoped to accomplish was predicated on the notion that the team was able to learn its recently appointed interim coach (and vice versa). Instead, they learned about Spencer Dinwiddie’s positive COVID-19 test, which will likely result in him missing the NBA’s return. Their (relatively) newly-appointed starting center DeAndre Jordan also announced that he was diagnosed with COVID-19 and that he’ll sit out the remaining games. They also received the unwelcome news that Wilson Chandler was opting out of the remainder of the season. Oh, and rookie Nic Claxton will also miss the rest of the year due to shoulder surgery. So can Coach Vaughn still make a case to return as the Nets head coach next season?
Ultimately, the Nets were never going to advance without Durant and Irving. Will it be even harder for Vaughn to prove his worth now? Maybe. Without Irving and Durant, the Nets were never going to advance beyond the first round, regardless of if they draw the Toronto Raptors or the Milwaukee Bucks. But the Nets front office, led by general manager Sean Marks, has been particularly adept at reading between the lines. They traded for D’Angelo Russell when his value was at its lowest, drafted Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert and picked coach Kenny Atkinson. While it’s unclear if Vaughn is the best man for the job, he’ll certainly get an opportunity to make his case for it.
Will the 76ers’ “Process” come to fruition?
After taking the eventual 2019 NBA Champions to the last second of regulation in a game seven, the Philadelphia 76ers were identified as one of a select few teams to compete for the Eastern Conference crown. After a strong start that was solidified with an exclamation point in a Christmas Day win over the Milwaukee Bucks, they lost their way — going 16-16 after the holiday.
Their struggles resulted in (or from) injuries to their two best players — Ben Simons and Joel Embiid, who missed 11 and 21 games, respectively. It got so bad that rumors surfaced about the 76ers potentially moving one or the other as soon as this offseason.
But the play stoppage may result in some positives for Philadelphia. Both Simmons and Embiid had time to heal from their ailments. And while they are in the unfortunate position of being tied with the Indiana Pacers for the fifth seed, with Indiana holding the tiebreaker. Fortunately, Philadelphia has a pretty easy schedule with games against San Antonio, Washington, Orlando, Portland and Phoenix. They also play Indiana on Aug. 1. So the 76ers control their own destiny, at least as far as securing the fifth seed.
Unfortunately, their consolation prize would be a first-round matchup against Miami. While that’s a tall task for any team outside of the greater-LA area, Philadelphia needs to demonstrate progress. Organizationally, they’ve invested a lot of time in this rebuild. They’d like to see progress. In fact, the fate of this iteration of the 76ers might depend on at least advancing beyond the first round. If they don’t, Embiid and/or Simmons, coach Brett Brown and general manager Elton Brand could all be elsewhere as of next season.
Does a deep run mandate that the Raptors bring back their core, again?
The Raptors have been the biggest thorn in the side of this writer – pretty much all season. I saw a golden opportunity for them to rebuild on the fly. Masai Ujiri knew better. He brought back most of the 2018-19 lineup and, sure enough, Toronto is entering the final eight games as the second seed in the Eastern Conference.
That alone is far from a major victory, especially for the defending champions. Expectations traditionally remain high after winning. Even with Kawhi Leonard leaving town, the Raptors were clearly confident they could make a run. Further, there is the financial side of the business that probably factored in – remember, playoff games bring in significantly more revenue than the regular season. While that is in question now with games being hosted exclusively in Disney World, no one could have predicted the arrival of a pandemic when decisions were being made in the summer of 2019. And next year’s finances will present complications, too. Will the Raptors agree to continue spending without the guarantee of revenue? You can bet that the Knicks and Lakers will. Beyond them, nothing is certain in terms of spending.
But regardless if you believe in the direction taken by the Raptors for 2019-20 or not, they’ve out-performed expectations. If they fail to advance past even the Eastern Conference semifinals, there’s a strong case to be made for a quick rebuild. But if they advance the to the Conference Finals or beyond, can Ujiri convince ownership to get on board with dismantling a team that would have played in at least two straight conference finals and secured its first NBA Championship? In total, the team is only on the hook for about $85 million next year, but Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol will all enter unrestricted free agency. The Raptors will have to open up their wallets to retain even two out of those three, which would be a necessity if they hope to compete again next season — and that could make their 2020-21 salary untenable.
Another interesting aspect – will Ujiri even return? Rumors circulated – as they always do when New York is involved – that the Knicks were preparing Ujiri a monster offer. But they’ve since moved forward with new team president, Leon Rose. However, there are other high-profile teams that could use his help. Our very own Matt John wrote about a few in his The Hot Seat – Eastern Conference this past March. Philadelphia would be a great fit given how much talent they’re sitting on and their (likely) desire to improve if they don’t at least qualify for the conference finals. The Chicago Bulls are another team that could entice Ujiri to jump ship. Regardless, Toronto faces tough decisions following the 2020 NBA Playoffs.
Boston’s present looks great. But what’s next?
Like Toronto, the Boston Celtics are looking down the barrel at some interesting salary cap implications. Boston’s roster looks well-structured considering its relative youth and versatility. But the challenge lies in its future — can Boston add to its core to the extent that it builds a serious contender?
As mentioned above, freeing up the cap space needed to sign another star will be made more complicated by the restrictions that a smaller cap will introduce. Gordon Hayward has a $34 million player option for 2020-21. Prior to the monumental financial challenges presented by COVID-19, this writer expected him to opt-out and sign a long-term deal. But the salary cap will take a significant hit, and the days of teams handing out $30 million per year are probably over for now, at least for players who aren’t major difference makers. So, expect to see Hayward on Boston’s roster next season, as well as on their payroll. Ultimately, the Celtics will have approximately $100 million in guaranteed salary next season, which includes Enes Kanter’s player option and Tatum’s $9.89 cap hit, but not counting any other team options like Daniel Theis ($5 million), Robert Williams ($2 million) or Semi Ojeleye ($1.75 million).
Looking past next season, Tatum will almost certainly sign a long-term extension (this offseason, but his 2020-21 cap hit will be unaffected) that cannibalizes much of Boston’s future cap space. There’s also the new CBA, which will be hurt by COVID-19, and the NBA and Daryl Morey’s dust-up with China, which originated last summer, to factor in.
So that leads us to an interesting question: Are the Celtics good enough to win a championship as is? If they decide the answer is no, they’ll be severely restricted in what moved they can make. Long-term implications are difficult to anticipate; but in the short-term, Ainge and the Celtics should look to add veterans willing to sign lucrative, short-term deals, looking to chase championships. Players like Danilo Gallinari – although many in the know believe Gallinari will sign with Miami – or Derrick Favors would be good additions to the already talented Celtics. They’d add much-needed talent and (hopefully) accept slightly smaller roles for the opportunity to contend. And getting Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to help with recruiting would go a long way.
Like all divisions, the Atlantic Division’s teams possess their share of issues to sort out. No Atlantic Division team is poised to win now, but many are on the right track. If these six situations are handled correctly, all five teams will be in better places in the near future.