A few years ago, prior to his celebrated arrival, the city, the team, the owner and the fans all coveted the player.
The feeling was most certainly mutual. The player openly reciprocated their affection.
They wanted to unite, and were determined to find a way to make it happen.
The love affair actually began nearly three decades earlier. The player was born in Brooklyn and spent his adolescent years there. That’s where he first fell in love with the city’s game.
The player eventually moved away, spending his formative years in West Baltimore. As the player matured, his game developed. His name gained prominence, and his native city and the fans back home took notice. It seemed destined that they would someone day reunite.
By the winter of 2011, they both were unwilling to wait any longer. The time had come.
However, more than 2,000 miles separated them. The player lived and worked on the opposite side of the county, in Denver, Colorado. But that was simply a speed bump in the way of their reunion. Nothing was going to keep them apart – not geographical distance, a salary cap, future draft picks or a pending lockout.
On February 22, 2011, a trade was consummated. The city was ecstatic. The owner was overjoyed. The fans sang and danced, and cheered his homecoming.
The honeymoon period was wonderful. The player was treated like prince. Interest in the team increased immediately, and exponentially. Jersey sales skyrocketed. During the 2012-13 campaign, the team reached heights it hadn’t experienced in decades. They captured the Atlantic Division crown and won more than 50 games for the first time in since 1997. The player emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate. The team finally advanced past the first round of the playoffs. The future seemed so bright. This was how both sides had dreamt it would be all those years ago.
But then, last season, the train slowly began to tumble off the tracks, eventually derailing on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. As the relationship screeched towards its nadir, discord and drama returned to the team. Losses piled up. Frustration grew. Both the player and team said all the right things in public, but the future of the marriage was now in doubt.
It is still fairly obvious that both parties still care a great deal for each other. In an ideal world (one with salary caps and luxury taxes), they’d stay together, happily ever after. They would jointly fight for a fairy tale ending, hoping to experience more signing, celebrating and eventually maybe even a parade.
But today’s NBA, and its strict salary structure, has no room for such sentimentality. And because of that harsh reality, the player and the team/city/fans may need to break up now, if they expect to find happiness and success in the future.
As we know, Carmelo Anthony has already opted out of his current contract with the New York Knicks. Beginning July 1, Anthony can meet with other teams as he attempts to determine where he will spend the remaining prime years of his career. It will be a difficult decision for Anthony. There are plenty of ‘pros and cons’ for staying in New York. However, just as importantly, there is also a case to be made for and against the Knicks offering Anthony major money to re-sign.
Let’s start with the facts: Anthony is one of the NBA’s better players. Despite the Knicks’ terribly disappointing 2013-14 season, Anthony did all he could to lift New York out of the doldrums. The all-around, individual statistics ‘Melo posted were incredibly impressive. Anthony became the first player in over a decade to average at least 27 points, eight rebounds and three assists per game throughout a full NBA season. He was also remarkably efficient on the offensive end of the floor. In fact, he became just the fourth player in NBA history to average over 27 points a night while shooting above 45 percent from the floor, 40 percent from the field and 82 percent from the free-throw stripe. The other three members of that incredibly exclusive club are Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant.
Nonetheless, one number that can’t be ignored is “37.” That’s the total number of wins the Knicks tallied last season. And “zero” is the number of postseason games they participated in. Somehow, New York managed to miss the playoffs despite playing in an embarrassingly weak Eastern Conference.
Phil Jackson has inherited the Knicks just as they are approaching a major, franchise-changing fork in the road. Within the next couple of weeks, Anthony’s future will be determined. And that decision will have an immediate and enormous impact on the short- and long-term future of the Knickerbockers organization.
If Melo re-ups with New York, Jackson and company will surely make a full effort to surround Anthony with a bevy of complementary pieces, most likely veterans, that give the Knicks the best opportunity to win right away. The plan would be to fully maximize the small window of opportunity encompassing Anthony’s prime.
Conversely, if Carmelo signs somewhere else, the Knicks would likely look to ride out a rough 2014-15 season, keeping their eyes on the prize: The summer of 2015. New York owns their first-round pick in 2015, which would likely be a lottery pick if Anthony was not on the team. More importantly, New York will have an enormous amount of cap space to spend on free agents next summer, when some prominent players will be available on the open market. Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson, Tony Parker, Goran Dragic, Roy Hibbert and DeAndre Jordan among others may be up for grabs as unrestricted free agents in 2015. (And Kevin Durant is due to hit free agency in 2016.)
Let’s approach this dilemma from a different angle. The goal of the Knicks should be winning an NBA championship, correct?
Although it seems counter-intuitive, if the Knicks’ ultimate ambition is to win a title, then refusing to re-sign their best player to a max contract may be the most reasonable route towards that ultimate destination.
It would surely set the team back in the short-term; there is absolutely no denying that. Keeping Carmelo would probably ensure the Knicks remaining competitive next season and for a few seasons thereafter.
However, there is an old cliché in the NBA that stipulates that in order for a team to reach heaven, they have to go through hell.
Would re-signing ‘Melo to a max deal simply prolong the Knicks’ period in purgatory? Would giving Anthony max money increase the likelihood of New York consistently finishing somewhere in the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference, while simultaneously decreasing their chances of evolving into an elite, championship-level team?
Despite undeniable individual greatness throughout the entirety of his career, Anthony hasn’t found much team success in the postseason. Carmelo completed his 11th NBA season last April, and he has only won a total of three playoff series during that entire tenure. His team has won only 23 of the 66 playoff games he has competed in (a 34.8 winning percentage). That’s one the worst individual postseason records in NBA history among players that have appeared in at least 50 playoff games.
Obviously, all of those losses can’t be pinned directly on Anthony, but they are an undeniable part of the picture, and these facts have to be taken into account when determining Anthony’s ultimate worth. If we highlight the positives (scoring titles, All-NBA Team nominations, etc.) and give him credit for carrying teams into the playoffs, we have to hold his feet to the fire for failing to consistently deliver on the NBA’s biggest stage.
Anthony recently celebrated his 30th birthday. How many players perform far better in the 30s than they did in their 20s? If Anthony hasn’t been good enough to be the best player on championship team yet, does it make sense to believe he’ll start doing it now?
Anthony is talented enough to be a key contributor on a title team; however, it’s not wise for Jackson to assume a 31-year-old Anthony can be the highest-paid, best player on championship squad.
And make no mistake, if he signs for the max, he’ll be the team’s highest paid player by a wide margin. Examining exactly how much ‘Melo can be paid is a bit sobering for even the most dedicated Anthony supporters. If New York gives Carmelo the maximum allowable raises, here’s what Anthony’s annual salary would look like:
2014-15 season: $22.457 million
2015-16 season: $24.141 million
2016-17 season: $25.825 million
2017-18 season: $27.509 million
2018-19 season: $29.193 million
By the fifth and final season of a potential new max contract (after he had already celebrated his 34th birthday), Anthony would make over $29 million.
How effective and efficient will Anthony be at 33 years old? What about 34 years old?
Anthony entered the league as a teenager. He now has 11 full seasons worth of wear-and-tear on body. In addition, last year was exceedingly taxing. Former head coach Mike Woodson, desperate to save his job, rode Anthony relentlessly. Carmelo led the NBA in minutes played, averaging nearly 39 minutes a night. And it’s not solely the sheer volume of minutes that’s distressing; the Knicks leaned heavily on Anthony whenever he was on the floor. He’s always been the focal point of New York’s offensive attack, and in recent seasons he’s also been forced to guard bigger and stronger power forwards on a nightly basis.
How will Anthony’s aging body respond? This is a question Jackson has to ask himself.
Consider this: Last season Anthony became just the second player, age 29 or older, since 2010 to log over 3,000 minutes in one season. The only other player to have matched that feat is Kobe Bryant, who played over 3,000 minutes in 2012-13. (As we know, Bryant tore his Achilles in April of 2013 and managed to play a total of just six games in 2013-14 before a knee injury ended his season).
Nonetheless, let’s take an optimistic approach and a assume Anthony does not slow down and maintains his elite level of production. It’s probably safe to assume the Knicks will bounce back into the playoffs next season. Trading away Tyson Chandler cost them their best defensive player, but they got back a massive upgrade at the point guard position in Jose Calderon, which was a necessity. And based on the talent level on the Knicks’ current roster, they should certainly win more than 37 games. But what is their ultimate upside. Even if they snag a very good player with their mid-level exception (rumors of Pau Gasol taking a huge discount have been floated recently), how good could this Knicks team be? What is the best-case scenario?
With LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade opting out of their contracts this past weekend, it appears Miami is re-tooling for another few years of Eastern Conference dominance. Not to mention the bevy of stacked teams in the West. Would even the biggest Knick fan argue that the 2014-15 Knicks will be a serious contender for the crown?
When taking the fiscal reality of today’s NBA and the big picture into account, the Knicks’ best course of action is swallowing some unpleasant medicine, tanking in 2014-15 and focusing on the future.
Anthony previously declared he would be willing to take less than the max to stay with the Knicks, and Jackson has wisely alluded to Anthony’s pronouncement. But exactly how much money is ‘Melo willing to leave on the table? The only significant advantage New York has over Anthony’s other’s suitors (Chicago, Houston, etc.) is their ability to pay him $33 million more. The other teams have far better supporting casts, better players with proven playoff experience. In addition, the Knicks’ rebuilding effort would receive a major boost if both the Bulls and Rockets were dueling for Anthony’s services, and offering competing sign-and-trade packages in hopes of sealing a deal with Carmelo.
Even if Anthony gives the Knicks a moderate discount, the savings likely won’t be enough to offset the potential pitfalls.
The most prudent plan would likely be sacrificing short-term success to reap long-term rewards.
If Anthony is not taking up $22+ million, New York could be looking at upwards of $40 million in cap space, which would allow them to go on quite the shopping spree next summer. Of course, they won’t have to spend it all in one place (or on one player). Smart organizations understand the true value of cap space is that it presents opportunities to trade for high-priced players, as well as sign top free-agents outright.
And, as has been noted before in this space, this is where the presence of Jackson makes things that much more interesting. Prior to Jackson’s arrival, extreme trepidation toward trusting the Knicks’ front office to successfully navigate free agent waters was understandable. However, with Jackson calling the shots (as opposed to owner Jim Dolan or CAA, etc.), the chances of the Knicks completely striking out in free agency are greatly decreased. NYC is a far more desirable location for prospective players now that Jackson is the new face of the franchise.
A common counterargument from the “keep Carmelo at all costs” camp is that free agency is too much of a crapshoot and it’s unlikely that New York would be able to reel in a player on par with Anthony no matter how far below the cap they get.
Well, the fact of the matter is that the Knicks would not necessarily have to sign a player better than Anthony in order for them to improve their overall roster. With mountains of cap space, the Knicks could construct a “team” that was far more balanced and not reliant on a single scorer.
If the free agent class of 2015 is star-studded, and the Knicks had more cap space than any team in the NBA, what kind of team could Jackson put together? Furthermore, Jackson is already off to fine start, reeling in a 2013 first round pick with enticing upside (Shane Larkin) and receiving the good fortune having another player with first-round talent (Cleanthony Early) fall into his lap with the 34th overall pick in the 2014 draft.
Clearing and preserving cap space by letting Anthony walk is an inherently risky proposition, but if you have a competent front office in place (not a maverick owner masquerading as a GM), the risk is minimized.
Even if Anthony signed for “only” $115 million (roughly $15 million less the max), would that be the most efficient allocation of New York’s funds? For argument’s sake, which would be the better investment: The possibility of committing to pay a player such as Kevin Love $18 million per season in his mid-20s or paying Anthony $23 million at age 32?
Or what about a spending the money earmarked for Anthony on some combination of Goran Dragic, Marc Gasol and Danny Green?
Many max contracts are celebrated on signing day, but then viewed with remorseful regret a few years down the road.
These are the issues Jackson has surely been mulling over since moving to New York. It will be fascinating to watch how Anthony and the Knicks interact over the next 10 days. The final chapters have yet to be written. How will this story end? Will this be their last dance?
The player and the team/city/fans have had a fun, enjoyable run. Like any relationship, there were highs and lows, but it was ultimately satisfying and beneficial for both parties. Studies show that financial troubles, and the resulting disputes, are one of the primary causes of divorces in the United States. Nonetheless, it’s never easy to say goodbye.
Still, sometimes it’s best to realize and acknowledge that a relationship has run its course. It’s not the fairy tale ending either side was hoping for, but it’s time for the player and the team to go their separate ways.
The Curious Case Of Andrew Wiggins
The path to becoming a superstar took a wrong turn two years ago for top pick Andrew Wiggins. With stability and a new regime in Minnesota, it will be up to him to get the train back on the tracks this season. Chad Smith writes.
Being a number one overall draft pick in the NBA instantly puts a target on your back. Expectations come with that as well, fair or not. Andrew Wiggins has had a roller coaster ride since being taken with the top pick in the 2014 draft. After three years of promise, he has tapered off in each of the last two seasons. The make or break cliché is used too often, but this will definitely be a defining season for the Canadian.
Wiggins has played exactly 400 games in his NBA career. He has played all of them with the Timberwolves, who traded the face of their franchise to acquire the promising young talent. Wiggins has managed to stay healthy throughout his career. Through his first four seasons, he only missed one game. Last year he played 73 for Minnesota, who failed to reach the playoffs after a disastrous season that included trading Jimmy Butler.
Butler left a lot of money on the table to leave Minnesota – largely due to the lack of improvement from Wiggins.
For all of his physical tools and salivating upside, Wiggins has failed to significantly improve as a player. His scoring averages did improve in his first three seasons, going from 16.9 to 20.7 to 23.6 points per game. The following year it dipped to 17.7 and 18.1 per contest. His per-game averages in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks have all plateaued.
From the foul line, Wiggins shot 76 percent in each of his first three seasons, but dropped to 64.3 and 69.9 percent in the last two years. His shooting efficiency numbers across the board have been declining as well. The progression clearly has not been there, and you don’t even need the actual numbers to see it.
If you do need the numbers, they are not flattering. His 0.6 win shares last season ranked him 350th among 530 eligible players. Per 48 numbers were even worse as his 0.005 win shares were the third-worst in the league (minimum 2,000 minutes played). The Wolves finished 11th in the conference last season. Improving upon that will prove to be difficult given the stiff competition in the Western Conference.
The five-year, $147 million maximum extension that Wiggins signed two years ago was questionable at the time and appears even more detrimental now. Gersson Rosas is the new president of basketball operations in Minnesota, and it is not clear what his intentions with Wiggins are. Trading the former Rookie of the Year is one option, but it will not be an easy one. If he can show some true progression in his game, Wiggins could fit nicely alongside superstar Karl-Anthony Towns.
Under former coach Tom Thibodeau, the Wolves appeared to underutilize the services of Towns. He also tended to play his starters heavy minutes. Wiggins averaged nearly 37 minutes per game under his system. Those numbers came down dramatically towards the tail end of last season under new head coach Ryan Saunders. His career average still sits at 36 minutes per contest. The only other active players with a higher minute per game average are LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard.
During Media Day, Andrew said that he felt as though he was on the rise three years into his career, before “some changes were made” that seemed to derail his trajectory. Wiggins went on to talk about Thib’s coaching style, and how the yelling didn’t change anything for him. He stated that he prefers a player’s coach that is “real” with him, like Saunders, the youngest coach in the league.
With Saunders cemented in place, the Wolves could find new and better ways to get the most out of Towns and Wiggins. Using more screening action, it could allow smaller defenders to switch onto Karl, or get a bigger defender on Andrew, allowing him to drive to the basket. That could open up opportunities on the wing for their solid group of role players.
A healthy Robert Covington and Josh Okogie will provide Minnesota with hope from the outside, an area where they have struggled heavily. New additions such as Jake Layman, Jordan Bell and Noah Vonleh should fit right in as well. All eyes will be on rookie Jarrett Culver, whom the Wolves gave up assets (Dario Saric and the 11th pick) to acquire with the sixth pick in the draft.
Saunders will likely want to push the pace and score in transition this season. Minnesota was 14th in pace last season and had the 13th-ranked scoring offense. They have the players needed for that style of play and will now be able to play both small-ball and match up against bigger lineups.
Versatility will be a strength for them this season, but they must improve on their biggest weakness – defense.
The Wolves ranked 23rd in scoring defense last year, and 24th in overall defensive rating. Having Covington back will help in that area, but it needs to start with Towns and Wiggins. As leaders, both must show improvement on that end of the floor in order for the other guys to buy-in.
With a year of continuity and a more stable environment, Minnesota should still be an improved team from last season. Whether or not they are able to challenge for a playoff spot will likely be determined by the play of Wiggins. Andrew has the skillset to become a very good player, even if his ceiling is not as high as Karl’s. That being said, Andrew will turn 25 in February. The time is now for him to show improvement.
Aside from Jeff Teague’s 10 years of experience, only Covington and Gorgui Dieng have more experience than Wiggins. They each have just one more year than he does. So where exactly does he need to improve his game?
Shot selection and defense should be at the top of the list. Despite the decent scoring average, the more minutes he plays, the more shots he misses. In theory that makes sense, but there are a number of players (even his own teammates) that played more minutes and missed fewer shots. In all five seasons, Wiggins has ranked inside the top 20 in the league in missed field goals.
The defense is fairly straight forward. He has the ability to defend on the perimeter and even inside, but his desire and effort are not always there. Playing passing lanes more aggressively and being able to anticipate what comes next on a given play are two key areas to focus on.
Rebounding is another area that would really benefit the team if he is able to improve. His size and athleticism afford him great opportunities to crash the boards, especially when Towns is not on the floor. Obviously, everyone can improve their shooting, and while his three-point shot isn’t horrid, there is no excuse for him to shoot below 70 percent from the foul line. These are things that should have progressed much better entering your sixth year in the league.
Rosas has stated publicly that continuity and playing style under Saunders should make Wiggins one of the biggest beneficiaries this season.
For their sake and his own, here is to hoping he is right.
NBA Daily: Mavericks Reacclimating Kristaps Porzingis From The Outside In
Kristaps Porzingis has been away from the game for nearly two years. In his first exhibition games with his new team, the Mavericks are reacclimating him from the outside in. Jack Winter writes.
Any doubt surrounding the Dallas Mavericks’ blockbuster trade for Kristaps Porzingis had nothing to do with his play.
The No. 4 overall pick in 2015 proved draft-night boos foolish during an eye-popping rookie season that seemed to establish him as the New York Knicks’ long-awaited, homegrown franchise player. Porzingis made subtle strides as a sophomore, adjusting his shot chart to include more three-pointers and attempts at the rim, before accelerating his developmental timeline and suddenly living up to his All-NBA potential over the first half of the 2017-18 season. He couldn’t sustain a blistering start that was so good it prompted early-season MVP talk, but averages of 22.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game nevertheless made it clear Porzingis was bound for true stardom – if he wasn’t there already.
All that progress came to a crushing halt on Feb. 6, 2018, when Porzingis cut backdoor for a powerful dunk on a trailing Giannis Antetokounmpo that caused him to land awkwardly and clutch his left knee as he writhed in pain on the Madison Square Garden floor. The worst fears of the Knicks and their success-starved fan base were confirmed shortly thereafter, when it was announced that Porzingis had suffered a torn ACL, ending his season and putting his future in jeopardy.
Porzingis’ injury would have been considered a blip for almost any young player. A torn ACL isn’t anything close to the career-threatening injury it was even just a decade ago. Most players return to the floor well within a year of suffering the injury, and all are expected to eventually regain their initial level of athleticism.
Porzingis was the exception to those updated rules. Especially tall players have a long history of reacting poorly to serious lower-body injuries, and Porzingis is a physical anomaly at 7-foot-3 with rare mobility and overall coordination. If his all-around athleticism was even marginally affected by invasive knee surgery, just how good could Porzingis be?
The height of Porzingis’ readjusted ceiling remains a question mark two exhibition games into his playing career with the Mavericks. He’s struggled to shoot the ball from deep after 20 months removed from the NBA game, and it stands to reason he’s more likely to re-injure his knee after going under the knife. But concerns that Porzingis has lost explosiveness as a result of his torn ACL are almost long gone, and more importantly, those about his ability to hold up physically have been lessened by how Dallas has used him.
It would be remiss to submit that Porzingis is all the way back athletically, even though he insisted on Media Day he’s “110 percent.” The Mavericks are planning to load manage Porzingis in 2019-20, perhaps sitting him for either end of all back-to-backs, for a reason.
Still, it’s wildly encouraging to see Porzingis, in his exhibition debut against the Detroit Pistons, throwing down the type of from-nowhere tip dunk he made seem routine during his ill-fated time in New York. A few minutes later, he withstood a reckless shove to finish a lob from Luka Doncic, even landing hard on his left leg no worse for wear.
But just because Porzingis avoided re-injury on that dangerous play hardly means Dallas should be more comfortable putting him at risk. In fact, it provides further justification for Rick Carlisle’s apparent plan of easing him back into NBA action from the outside in.
Comparing young players to all-time greats is an exercise in disappointment. Porzingis isn’t Dirk Nowitzki, and never will be. The Mavericks would be absolutely thrilled if he enjoyed half the extent of individual success that propelled Nowitzki to 12 All-NBA selections and 14 All-Star Games. But just because Porzingis isn’t Nowitzki hardly means Carlisle won’t use him in much the same way he did the greatest player in team history.
For now, that means taking advantage of Porzingis’ deep shooting range from the frontcourt by spacing the floor across four and sometimes five positions. Porzingis has spent most of his time beyond the arc through his first two exhibition games, running high and side ball screens with Doncic, popping back on off-ball screens he sets for catch-and-shoot chances and lagging behind in transition for trail threes.
The numbers, as could be expected from a player who last played competitive NBA basketball nearly two years ago, aren’t great. In 43 total minutes so far, Porzingis has scored only 29 points on 31 shots, including 4-of-16 shooting from deep. But the result doesn’t matter nearly as much as the process for Porzingis, a reality that should extend into the regular season, and there’s ample reason to believe he’ll thrive offensively once he re-acclimates to basketball being played at its highest level.
It’s not Porzingis’ physical tools nor package of offensive skills that makes him special, but the layered scoring opportunities that blend of attributes presents. Leave him free, and Porzingis is the type of shooter who can get hot from three in a hurry. Close-out too aggressively, and he’ll put the ball on the floor to create a cleaner look.
Porzingis started at center on Friday against the Milwaukee Bucks, and opened next to Maxi Kleber up front two days earlier versus the Pistons. Regardless of what position he’s played, Dallas has mostly used Porzingis as a screener and weak-side spacer, letting him finish plays rather than start them.
Putting a player like Porzingis in a box, though, ignores the versatility that led Kevin Durant to famously dub him “Unicorn.” When he’s been on the floor with another big, the Mavericks have occasionally treated Porzingis like a wing or guard, running him off screens away from the ball.
Purists need not worry: Porzingis hasn’t completely abandoned the post. His touches on the block have been few and far between through his first two exhibition games, and have shrewdly come after he sets screens on the perimeter, allowing him to roll into post position instead of fighting hard to establish it. Porzingis’ right-shoulder turnaround jumper is nearly as unblockable as Nowitzki’s iconic one-footed fadeaway. It’s not going anywhere.
But Dallas clearly plans to utilize Porzingis from the perimeter first and foremost, a development that doesn’t just mitigate the physical toll he’s bound to take, but also leverages his unique abilities as a shooter and driver to make the game easier for Doncic and his teammates. No team in the league will benefit more from pitch-perfect spacing this season than the Mavericks. Porzingis, obviously, is much more than a floor-stretcher, but he can get his own playing mostly from the outside while teammates – including likely starter Dwight Powell, one of the best roll men in basketball – reap the rewards of him being on the court.
In time, Dallas will ask more of Porzingis offensively. He’s too gifted an individual scorer for that not to happen. But as he gets his feet under him in the season’s early going and perhaps for its duration, Porzingis will offer more than enough by his presence alone to make the Mavericks dangerous. And if he grows comfortable quickly, don’t be surprised if Carlisle affords Porzingis more responsibility, perhaps lifting his team to legitimate playoff contention in the process.
NBA MIP Watch 2019-20: Preseason Edition
While the Most Improved Player Award is the hardest to forecast, there are certain signs that a player may be poised for a season worthy of this honor. Quinn Davis names five that could be in the running come season’s end.
Forecasting the Most Improved Player award is not an easy undertaking. Unlike other awards, the field for Most Improved cannot be narrowed down to a select few that usually are in consideration. Theoretically, any player in the NBA could make a significant enough improvement to win this award.
Rookies heading into their second year could be an easy choice, as a year of NBA experience usually translates to improvement on the court. The issue here is that the voters think it’s too easy, and second-year players who were high draft picks are rarely considered for this award.
De’Aaron Fox bucked this trend last year, finishing third in voting. Using that as a guide, it would be fair to say that it will take a Fox-like improvement for a second-year lottery pick to be considered for Most Improved.
The task becomes much more fun, and much more difficult, when looking beyond that batch of players. There are certain things to look for, such as an increased role or a player who has received praise for their work over the summer. In the end, it may just come down to a gut feeling.
Here are five players that check one or multiple of those boxes.
The third-year big man enters this season primed for improvement after a summer spent training with the USA Select team. Isaac has particularly shown flashes of defensive ability in his two seasons and could blossom into a disruptor on that end in this upcoming campaign.
Isaac’s coach, Steve Clifford, made it clear that he has high hopes for the Flordia State product this season in an interview he gave before training camp.
“He’s had a terrific summer. He looks good physically. He’s worked really hard with (assistant coach) Bruce (Kreutzer) and with (assistant coach) Pat (Delany) on his shooting, his range, his mechanics, his ISOs, his post-ups, his shot-making,” Clifford told Josh Robbins of The Athletic. “I think he’s in a really good place. Last year from Game 1 to Game 82 he made great strides. He was a big reason why our team improved so much. I think people will see he put a lot of hard work in. I think it’ll pay off.”
Clifford mentioned the improvements across last season, which were particularly seen in Isaac’s shooting. The versatile forward shot a dreadful 28.7 percent from deep prior to the All-Star break last season, but improved to 38.2 percent following that time off, per Basketball Reference.
Isaac is armed with a 7-foot-1 wingspan on a 6-foot-10 frame, giving him the ability to contest shots and take away passing lanes. One of his biggest weaknesses on the defensive end has been his skinny build, which makes it difficult for him to body up against some of the league’s brutes.
Isaac is reportedly up to 230 pounds, after ending last season at 209. This weight could not only help him guard in the post, but also score in the post on the other end. Isaac will likely be guarded by opposing fours starting next to Vucevic, and his length could give him a significant advantage over opponents at that position.
Last season, Isaac averaged 9.6 points and 5.5 rebounds. If those numbers jump up to 15 points and eight rebounds with strong defense for a playoff-bound Magic team, he could be in the running for the league’s Most Improved Player.
Another third-year big who teems with potential resides in Portland. Collins, who will likely start at power forward this season for the Trail Blazers, should see a large minute increase and has many excited for the possible leap he could take this season.
A lot of this excitement was brought about by Collins’ performance in the playoffs last season when he played a pivotal role in Portland’s series win over the Nuggets. Collins flashed his defensive potential late in that series, recording five blocks in Game 6 and four blocks in Game 7 – both Blazers wins.
Portland will ask Collins to stretch the floor this season next to the paint-bound Hassan Whiteside. Collins has shot 30 percent from deep in each of the last two regular seasons and will need to climb towards league average to give his team’s star backcourt requisite room to operate.
If Collins can better space the floor while being an impactful defender, he may emerge as Portland’s third-best player this season. With increased minutes and a more defined role, the stage is set for Collins to build on his playoff performance and put himself into contention for Most Improved.
As mentioned, it is very hard for second-year players to make a case for this award. Since the expectation for these players is to improve, they need to make a very significant leap to stand out for the voters. De’Aaron Fox did this last season, going from lost rookie to stud point guard that helped the Kings chase a playoff seed. Shai will need to do something similar on his new team in Oklahoma City if he is to make an impression.
Last season, the Kentucky product showed an ability to get into the paint and finish around the rim. He attempted 39 percent of his shots at the rim and finished 61 percent of those attempts. Those numbers ranked in the 78th and 72nd percentiles for his position, respectively, per Cleaning the Glass.
SGA also shot a serviceable 37 percent from beyond the arc and a very impressive 48 percent on long mid-range attempts, per Cleaning the Glass.
Now under the tutelage of Chris Paul, Shai may be able to take his all-around efficiency to the next level and learn how to get to his spots out of the pick-and-roll. The future Hall-of-Famer could also school SGA on the art of the pass, which is an area the second-year guard may have the most room to improve on.
While Shai had a very low assist rate for a point guard, he did show the ability to scan defenses and make the right play. With further experience and more teaching from Paul, he could make great strides in that department.
The second-year guard also has defensive potential thanks to a 6-foot-6 frame and 6-foot-11 wingspan. He already showed an ability to block shots and swipe passes as a guard last season and could immediately become a strong defender if he reduces his foul rate and stays focused off of the ball.
While he is poised to build off a strong rookie year, Shai’s candidacy may come down to the construction of the Thunder roster as the season goes along. It may be difficult to stand out while playing next to a ball-dominant point guard like Chris Paul.
If Paul is traded, SGA may have the opportunity he needs to control the offense and make a large enough leap to vault into the Most Improved conversation.
There have been few players that have had as tumultuous first two seasons as Ball. Coming out of UCLA with his father as a hype man, Lonzo was drafted by the Lakers and asked to turn the franchise around.
After two seasons that featured a LeBron free-agent signing sandwiched between them, Ball was sent to New Orleans this summer as part of the Anthony Davis trade. He will now have the luxury of being away from the spotlight and could put more focus on his game. The early returns on this focus have been encouraging.
Multiple videos have come out of the Pelicans training camp showing an improved jump shot form from Ball, and he’s looked confident putting it up in the preseason. If the confidence translates to the real games, Ball could truly take his game to the next level. Already a brilliant passer and strong defender, Ball could go from an internet punching bag to an above-average NBA player this season with improved scoring ability.
The threat to shoot off the dribble would instantly improve his pick-and-roll game, which has been a weakness thus far in his career. This improvement could be amplified with the presence of Zion Williamson, who could make for a great partner in those plays.
Maybe more important than his on the court improvements are his lack off the court distractions. Without the constant attention of the Los Angeles media, Ball could quietly make a case for Most Improved if his jumper is indeed improved this season.
Yes, it would be quite an achievement for a player to win Most Improved after already being an All-Star the year before; but Ben Simmons has the room to improve, specifically in one area, and could take a leap this season that warrants consideration for the award.
Simmons authored maybe the biggest moment in a preseason game thus far when he drilled a 27-foot three-pointer off the dribble in a game against the Guangzhou Loong Lions. The shot sent the crowd into a frenzy and gave many Sixers fans hope for a new Ben this season, one that isn’t afraid to launch from deep.
While it is unclear whether this newfound brashness from beyond the arc will translate to games against actual NBA teams, the fact that he took the shot in any game is encouraging. If the shot attempts keep coming and a few makes come along with them, Simmons could go from All-Star to All-NBA this season.
The best comparison for Simmons’ Most Improved campaign would be Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2016-2017 season. In 2015-16 Giannis averaged about 17 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists on 50 percent shooting. The next season, he averaged about 23 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists on 52 percent shooting on his way to being named Most Improved Player.
Last season, Simmons averaged about 17 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists, on 56 percent shooting. It’s plausible that an improved jumper and increased confidence could give Simmons the push he needs to make a similar jump that Giannis did.
Both players have proven to be impactful defenders. Giannis has longer arms and is a better rim protector, but Simmons can lock down perimeter players when he needs to, as seen in his total erasing of D’Angelo Russell in the Sixers’ playoff series against the Nets. If Simmons further engages on that end he could make himself an even more viable candidate.
Simmons making this leap would be a surprise and a fun story, but it would not be unprecedented. If the jump shot proves viable, he will certainly garner some consideration for Most Improved.
All of these players share the ability and the opportunity to make a run at Most Improved this season, but that is not to say that they will be the only candidates. It is likely that multiple players will surprise us with a breakout season and throw their hat into the ring for this award.
Be sure to stay up to date and check out Basketball Insiders’ postseason award watch, for all of the awards, this season.