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NBA Chat With Tommy Beer 6/19/17


Join Basketball Insiders Senior NBA Analyst Tommy Beer for a chat session on Monday at 2:00 p.m. EST.

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  1. JimInCyberspace

    Tommy,

    The draft is always an unpredictable animal. Sometimes Draymond Green is drafted in the second round, and other times Greg Oden is drafted #1 or Michael Beasley #2.

    Who do you see as the most overrated and underrated “prospects” in this year’s edition?

    • Tommy Beer

      Hey Jim

      As far as underrated players, I love Nigel Hayes out of Wisconsin. I think he’s a steal in the second round

      Anzejs Pasecniks out of Latvia has the potential to be a stud. Yes, he has some flaws, but it’s very rare that a player his size can put the ball on the floor and attack the cup the way he does. Check out that dude’s youtube highlights

      The game is moving away from traditional bigs, but Caleb Swanigan is a beast.

      I’m surprised to see Sindarius Thornwell drop as far as he has in most mocks. He can flat-out score.

      Whatever teams drafts Jordan Bell will be very happy they did.

      And although De’Arron Fox is going to go in the top half of the lottery, I still think he might be underrated b/c I think he has a chance to be a superstar. I’d take him ahead of Lonzo Ball.

      Speaking of Ball, I’d list him in the overrated camp. His jumper worries me a bunch.
      I also think Malik Monk is a bit overrated. I certainly respect his ability to score, but what’s the upside of 6’3 shooting guard? Defensively that’s an issue. He has a relatively high floor because shooters have a ton of value in today’s NBA, but his ceiling is limited as an undersized SG. His upside is probably Lou Williams. While Williams has had a fine NBA career, that’s not all that enticing in a draft that’s had a bunch of studs up top.

      I’m also not as high on Luke Kennard as many others seem to be…

  2. Virgil

    TB please tell me that the Knicks have zeroed in on Frank N. the more i look at what he brings to the table the more i think he can help defensively. Now do you think they go in another direction and then resign Rose? I know no one knows what they will do probably not even them But i sure hope Frank is the pick.

    • Tommy Beer

      If I had to guess right now, I’d say that Ntilikina is the odds-on favorite to go to New York at No. 8.
      Either way, Frank’s floor is #9, as the Mavs are in love with him.
      But assuming the boards shakes out as we expect in #1 thru #6 (some order of Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Fox, Tatum, Issac). The Wolves at 7 is a wildcard, but they don’t need a guard. If they go Lauri MARKKANEN at 7, then the Knicks will have to choose between Monk, Frank and Dennis Smith Jr.

      I think Frank would be the pick. He’s a big guard, which you know Phil loves as a Triangle Fit. And with a 7’0″ wingspan, he projects as a plus defender.

      As far as Rose, I assume they would consider bringing him back on a one-year deal at the right. However, the only way I think he stays in NY if he gets no interest elsewhere.

  3. Virgil

    I also forgot to ask has there been anymore rumblings about NY picking up a second First round pick

    • Tommy Beer

      Phil has definitely been exploring options, but trading into the first round is difficult.
      One rumored option is trading Courtney Lee to the Pistons for their pick (#12 overall). Hard to see Stan Van Gundy signing off on that, as he has the security of a long-term deal as both coach and GM. He’s not facing “win now” pressure.

      If the Knicks got #12 – Donovon Mitchell would likely be the target.

  4. Tyler

    Is there a chance the Celtics take J. Isaac with the 3rd pick? Being a Celtics fan I like Josh Jackson but I know Isaac has a ton of potential. Do you think they would take Isaac? He could play the 4 and the Celtics could have Horford play the 5. All in all, being a Celtics fan I would rather have Jackson but Isaac has a ton of potential so I’m not sure how I would feel if we took Isaac. What do you think? Thanks Tommy.

    • Tommy Beer

      Hey Tyler,

      My sense is that the Celtics will choose between Jackson and Jayson Tatum. I think taking Issac at #3 would be a reach.
      Many ppl have pegged Jackson as a lock, but I think Tatum is has a good chance to go at 3.

  5. chicken adobo

    whats your take on julius randle and jordan clarkson? in my opinion josh jackson has the highest potential in the draft but d aaron fox is the smartest top 10 player. who are your favorites?

    • Tommy Beer

      I think Randle has let to live up to his potential, but his upside is definitely promising. If the Lakers were willing to move him, plenty of teams would be willing to trade for him.

      Clarkson contract is a bit onerous, but the kid cn play. His counting stats took a bit of dip last season, but that’s b/c his playing time dropped and he was bounced all around fro bench to starter to playing with different rotations. However, he still posted the highest eFG% of his career (.503) and averaged a career-high 18.1 points per-36 minutes.

      The Lakers may have to trade one of those two in order to find a team willing to absorb the terrible contracts of Deng or Mozgov.
      I could see one of the teams with cap space (such as Nets) taking on one of those bad contracts, if the Lakers were willing to attach a pick or player like Randle

      Re: Fox, as I wrote earlier, he’s one of my favorite players in the entire draft

  6. chicken adobo

    melo traded this summer?

    • Tommy Beer

      Yeah, I think the two side finally break up in July.
      It’s best for both Melo and the Knicks at this point…

  7. Rabbi Mordechai Abraham

    Hi Tom
    I am fascinated by the redundancy in New Orleans.
    Do you think that New Orleans might be interested in trading Anthony Davis for two lottery picks ,ie the 2 picks that Boston is getting from Philadelphia and someone like Avery Bradley or even Isaiah Thomas?
    And then perhaps trading next year’s Net’s pick, plus either Avery Bradley or Isaiah Thomas for Jimmy Butler.
    I understand to do these deals they would have to let go Johnson and Zeller and Olynick.
    Furthermore it would preclude them from acquiring Gordon Hayward but rather they would be getting two 2 way superstars.
    So they’re starting lineup would look something like Horford ,Davis ,Crowder, Marcus Smart or Rozier and Butler.
    Which would be extremely sound defensively and pretty good offensively.
    I imagine with Bradley Stevens coaching and Danny Ainge’s managing they should be able to put together a sound backup rotation.
    I think they could compete with Cleveland and even give the Warriors a go.
    Comments?

    • Tommy Beer

      getting both Anthony Davis and Butler???
      c’mon bro

      Pels won’t trade Davis.

  8. omar

    Hi Tommy. What trades will the Lakers make to get another pick in the first round of the draft?

    • Tommy Beer

      I think the Lakers will save up their assets to make a run at Paul George.
      I think when the Pacers get close to a deal, the Lakers will get nervous about waiting a year for PG to sign via free agency and made a solid offer centered around D’Angelo Russell and picks

  9. George

    What do the Kings do with 5 and 10? Will Fox still be there at 5?

    • Tommy Beer

      I’m sure the Kings are hoping that Fox is there at 5
      I’ll make a HOT TAKE prediction right now… If the Kings draft Fox at #5, he’ll average nearly 30 minutes per game and win the 2018 Rookie of the Year.

      Assuming they get Fox at 5, I think they take a big man at 10. Zach Collins out of Gonzaga would be a good fit

  10. Craig

    Wanna give us a % chance Butler or PG13 are each moved by the draft (most likely to Cs and Lakers)? Think Lakers come out of this offseason w/ Ball and PG13?

    • Tommy Beer

      I’d say less than a 10% chance Butler gets dealt.
      I’ll go with 60% chance that PG13 gets traded

      I think the Lakers get Ball, but don’t think they end up with PG13

  11. Craig

    If you were the Lakers, would you give up any assets now to assure PG13 was on the team (and have his rights)? Would you deal other assets to shed deng/moz if you could to have enough room for PG and another max in 2018 (cousins, james, westbrook, etc)?

    • Tommy Beer

      That’s an important point Craig – clearing cap space for 2018 doesn’t mean you strike out of if you don’t land PG13. There is also a chance to get Russ or DMC or LeBron.

      On the one hand, you want to secure Paul George so you have a shot at LeBron, but if you give up too many assets, then you decrease the chances of LeBron coming to L.A.

      In addition, if you trade for George, there is not a guarantee you sign in 2018. So many things can happen before July of 2018 – injuries or he doesn’t get along with his teammates or coaches etc –
      Thus, unless he is willing to sign an extension (which is unlikely b/c he’d have to leave a lot of money on the table) there is a still plenty of risk in trading assets for what may end up as only a year rental.

      Personally, it would all come down to the price tag. If it was a reasonable asking price, I’d want the sure thing and trade the assets required. If not, I hold on and wait for July of 2018

      ****

      Thanks so much for stopping by everybody. Have a great week and enjoy the craziness of this NBA offseason!!

      Thanks,
      T