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First Quarter Grades: Central Division

Spencer Davies breaks down the group of five in the Central Division and gives a grade to each team at this point in the season.

Spencer Davies

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We’re over 20 games into the NBA year, meaning that the standings are starting to take shape and teams are starting to create their identities.

This week on Basketball Insiders, we’ll be taking a division-by-division glance at how everyone is doing and will hand out grades for each squad at the quarter-season mark. Let’s get things started with the Central Division.

Chicago Bulls 3-18

As most expected after the trade of Jimmy Butler and other veterans skipping town, the Bulls are in a world of hurt. The season started out with an altercation between teammates that sent Nikola Mirotic to the hospital and left promising second-year forward Bobby Portis suspended for the first eight games. That alone tells you enough about where the organization is right now.

Things have been somewhat better as of late, but the bottom line is Chicago has lost a lot of games, and many of those have been complete blowouts. Four of their final deficits have been by at least 30 points, including one near 50-point loss to the Golden State Warriors on the road. It’s ugly, but this is what a full-scale rebuild looks like in every sense of the word.

Bright Spot: Lauri Markkanen displays plenty of promise as a rookie on both ends of the floor. Second-year guard Kris Dunn has shown upside over the last couple of weeks. Both of these two are heavily depended on. Recovering from an ACL injury, Zach LaVine is inching closer and closer to returning as well.

Biggest Area To Improve: Just about everything. First and foremost, play faster and improve the shooting. Per Cleaning The Glass, the Bulls are dead last in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage. Pace of play is essential in today’s NBA. Maybe LaVine can be the spark this team needs, but everyone needs to pick it up if this team doesn’t want to finish last.

First Quarter Grade: D-

Indiana Pacers 12-11

The Pacers are yet another team that went into the stages of a rebuild by moving their franchise star Paul George, but this one is going far different than most predicted. These guys are competing every night and believe they can make some noise. Nate McMillan deserves a lot of credit for rallying the troops after taking a big blow this summer.

Through about a quarter of the season, Indiana is averaging 109.3 points per 100 possessions and has the third-lowest turnover percentage in the league. This is thanks to a lack of stagnancy on offense and crisp ball movement. Sharing the basketball has resulted in trust and led to made shots, which explains why they are the second-best team in the league in three-point percentage (39.7) to only the Warriors.

Bright Spot: Before the season started, all of the talks surrounded Myles Turner being the franchise darling, but the story so far has been the re-emergence of Victor Oladipo. After a less than ideal stint with the Oklahoma City Thunder, he is thriving in a new environment with the Pacers and has to be a front-running candidate for Most Improved Player. Bojan Bogdanovic was an excellent under-the-radar addition to bolster perimeter shooting. Let’s not slight Domantas Sabonis and his crucial contributions in the absence of Turner, either.

Biggest Area To Improve: Indiana’s got to start defending. CTG statistics cite that their net rating is basically zero, meaning they’re allowing the same amount of points that they’re scoring. The Pacers also need to start crashing the boards better off of misses, as opponents are averaging over 13 second-chance points per game. Furthermore, they’ve allowed the third-highest amount of points in the paint per game (49.3) in the NBA.

First Quarter Grade: B

Milwaukee Bucks 12-9

It’s only been two months and it’s already a roller coaster season for Jason Kidd and company. The superstardom of Giannis Antetokounmpo has placed a metaphorical microscope on every little thing the team does. Ranging from personnel to his supporting cast, all eyes are on Milwaukee as a team looking to make a leap to that next-level tier.

Greek Freak has done everything in his power to this point to make sure that happens, so it’s on his teammates to return the favor. Khris Middleton has excelled at doing his job, while Malcolm Brogdon has picked up where he left off in his rookie campaign and added a reliable jump shot to his repertoire. Even as a team, the Bucks are tied for third in field goal percentage (48).

Bright Spot: Aside from the previous names mentioned, Eric Bledsoe’s impact defensively has been brilliant. Previously detailed here on Basketball Insiders, he is taking individual challenges and stifling the competition, which has proved to be contagious to Milwaukee’s defense as a whole. Largely thanks to Antetokounmpo, they rank in the top seven in both blocks and steals per game.

Biggest Area To Improve: For years, the Bucks have not been able to get on the boards and it still remains the case. They rank dead last in rebounds per game and continue to get crushed on the glass. A lot of it has to do with the lack of a reliable big man, but that’s got to change if they want to compete with the elite teams in this league. Offensively, the pace has to be faster as well. Getting out in transition and capitalizing on turnovers is when Milwaukee is at its best.

First Quarter Grade: C+

Detroit Pistons 14-8

From the revival of the deadly Reggie Jackson-Andre Drummond pick-and-roll combination to the tremendous consistency out of Tobias Harris, it’s clear that these Pistons are not messing around. Stan Van Gundy is coaching up a group of guys who are determined to prove that last year was a farce. So far, they’re living up to their end of the bargain.

What’s remarkable about this Detroit bunch is what plagued them a season ago is now arguably their greatest strength. They’ve flipped the script as a three-point shooting team, tying for fifth in the NBA with a 38.2 percentage clip from the perimeter, and 89 percent of those made threes are assisted, per NBA.com.

Bright Spot: The Pistons’ bench is the one of the best in the league. Defensively, they are tough and provide a heck of a boost when those starters are sitting. To say Langston Galloway was worth every penny of his contract is an understatement. According to CTG, Detroit is a net 18.2 points per 100 possessions better with the fourth-year guard on the floor. The team’s defensive rating is a 93.8 when he’s playing, a difference that is in the 99th percentile among the rest in the league. Couple that with Anthony Tolliver’s +8.4 net rating and that’s a heck of a duo.

Biggest Area To Improve: Believe it or not, the Pistons have got to rebound better. They average the fifth-fewest number of boards per game despite Andre Drummond’s presence down low. Getting to the line needs to happen more often, as they only attempt 18.9 free throws per game. With a combined 107.7 defensive rating, the starting five needs to defend better together as well.

First Quarter Grade: A

Cleveland Cavaliers 16-7

Contrary to the popular belief a few weeks ago, the sky is not falling in Cleveland. A 5-7 start obviously wasn’t what they had hoped for, but an 11-game winning streak has pretty much cured the angst and tension of the team. Look at it this way: The season started two weeks earlier than it ever has. The preseason was shorter, as was training camp. It’s an older team with seven new pieces and one colossal loss. Was it really all that surprising?

Questioning effort is fair, but the conditioning of this group was not up to par. A little bit of time and patience has the Cavaliers back in the driver’s seat once again. LeBron James is playing the best basketball of his career at 32 years old, and that should frighten everybody. Collectively, the defense is a concern, but not nearly what it was to start the season. On the other hand, the team’s 113.8 offensive rating is the third best in the NBA.

Bright Spot: Similar to the Pistons, who knows where Cleveland would be without its second unit. Tyronn Lue found a go-to lineup that is giving him consistency and it’s paid dividends for about a month now. As specified by NBA.com, the foursome of Dwyane Wade, Kyle Korver, Jeff Green and Channing Frye has provided a much-needed boost to the defensive end of the floor. In 160 minutes together, it’s a grouping that has a +11.8 net rating and allows just 97.3 points per 100 possessions.

Biggest Area To Improve: The biggest surprise of the slow start was the inconsistency from two mainstays of the Cavaliers—Kevin Love and J.R. Smith. These two have started to pick it up—especially Love with Tristan Thompson out—but they’re going to need to give it their all every night. In addition, Jae Crowder needs to be more aggressive out there. When the 27-year-old forward scores in double figures, Cleveland is a perfect 10-0.

First Quarter Grade: B-

Spencer Davies is a Deputy Editor and a Senior NBA Writer based in Cleveland in his third year with Basketball Insiders. Covering the league and the Cavaliers for the past five seasons, his bylines have appeared on Bleacher Report, FOX Sports and HoopsHype.

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Reviewing the Nurkic Trade: Denver’s Perspective

The Denver Nuggets have been on a miraculous run this postseason, but that doesn’t mean that they’re infallible. Drew Maresca reviews the 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland.

Drew Maresca

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The Denver Nuggets are fresh off of a 114-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, pulling within three wins of the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals. But what if I told you that the Nuggets’ roster could be even more talented by acting more deliberately in a trade from three years ago?

While Denver won on Tuesday night, they lost a nail bitter on Sunday – for which most of the blame has been pointed at a defensive breakdown by Nuggets’ center Mason Plumlee, who was procured in the aforementioned 2017 trade. What did it cost Denver, you ask? Just Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.

Nurkic was a 2014-15 All-Rookie second team member. He played 139 games over 2.5 seasons in Denver, averaging 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game. He showed serious promise, but Denver had numerous reasons to pursue a trade: he’d suffered a few relatively serious injuries early in his career (and he’s continued to be injury-prone in Portland), butted heads with head coach Michael Malone and – most importantly – the Nuggets stumbled on to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets eventually attempted a twin-tower strategy with both in the starting line-up, but that experiment was short-lived — with Jokic ultimately asking to move to the team’s second unit.

The Nuggets traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2017 (along with a first-round pick) in exchange for Plumlee, a second-round pick and cash considerations. Ironically, the first-round pick included in the deal became Justin Jackson, who was used to procure another center, Zach Collins – but more on that in a bit.

As of February 2017, Plumlee was considered the better player of the two. He was averaging a career-high 11 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists through 54 games – but it was clear that at 27, he’d already maximized his talent.

Conversely, Nurkic was only 23 at the time of the trade with significant, untapped upside. In his first few seasons with Portland, Nurkic averaged 15 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while establishing himself as a rising star. As noted above, injuries have continued to be a problem. Nurkic suffered a compound fracture in his tibia and fibula in March 2019, forcing him to miss a majority of this current campaign. The COVID-19-related play stoppage in March gave Nurkic extra time to get his body right, and he returned to action in July inside the bubble.

And he did so with a vengeance. Nurkic demonstrated superior strength and footwork, and he flashed the dominance that Portland hoped he would develop, posting eight double-doubles in 18 contests. He averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and while his play dipped a bit in the playoffs – partially due to a matchup with first-team All-NBA star Anthony Davis – he still managed 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds in the five-game series. So it’s fair to say that Nurkic is still on his way toward stardom.

But the Nuggets are in the conference finals – so all’s well that ends well, right? Not so fast. To his credit, Plumlee is exactly who Denver expected him to be. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in three seasons with Denver since 2017 – but to be fair, Plumlee is asked to do less in Denver than he had in Portland. Still, it’s fairly obvious that they’re just not that comparable.

Plumlee is a good passer and an above-average defender that’ll compete hard and isn’t afraid to get dirty – but he has limitations. He doesn’t stretch the floor and he is a sub-par free throw shooter (53.5 percent in 2019-20). More importantly, he’s simply not a major offensive threat and his repertoire of moves is limited.

High-level takeaway: Defenses tend to game plan for opponents they view as major threats – Nurkic falls into this category. Other guys pack the stat sheet through putback attempts, open looks and single coverage alongside the guys for whom opposing defenses game plan – that’s a more appropriate description of Plumlee.

On to the wrench thrown in by Zach Collins’ involvement. Statistically, Collins is about as effective as Plumlee – he averaged 7 points and 6.3 rebounds through only 11 games in 2019-20 due to various injuries – and he possesses more upside. The 22-year-old is not as reliable as Plumlee but given his age and skill set, he’s a far better option as a support player playing off the bench. He stretches the floor (36.8 percent on three-point attempts in 2019-20), is an above-average free throw shooter (75 percent this season) and is a good defender. Looking past Nurkic for a moment, would the Nuggets prefer a 22-year-old center that stretches the floor and defends or a 30-year-old energy guy?

Regardless of your answer to that question, it’s hard to argue that Nurkic should have returned more than Plumlee, definitely so when you factor in the first-round pick Denver included. There is obviously more at play: Denver was probably considering trading Nurkic for some time before they acted – did they feel that they could increase his trade value prior to the trade deadline in 2016-17? Maybe. Further, Nurkic and his agent could have influenced the Nuggets’ decision at the 2017 deadline, threatening to stonewall Denver in negotiations.

Had Nurkic been more patient or the Nuggets acted sooner before it became abundantly clear that he was on the move, Denver’s roster could be even more stacked than it is now. Ultimately, the Nuggets have a plethora of talent and will be fine – while it appears that Nurkic found a long-term home in Portland, where he owns the paint offensively. Denver can’t be thrilled about assisting a division rival, but they’re still in an enviable position today and should be for years to come.

But despite that, this deal should go down as a cautionary tale – it’s not only the bottom feeders of the league who make missteps. Even the savviest of front offices overthink deals. Sometimes that works in their favor, and other times it does not.

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NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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