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Forecasting 2016-17 NBA Rookie Of The Year

Oliver Maroney projects who could win the 2016-17 Rookie of the Year award.

Oliver Maroney

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Most early award predictions carry familiar names and faces. However, predicting Rookie of the Year candidacy is much more difficult based on many variables and factors. Because these players are drafted very young, it’s difficult to forecast a player’s output on any given team. Essentially, every rookie is a free agent coming into a new team and a new system, hoping to make an impact. But hoping can only get you so far in the NBA. Players who’ve previously been stars and played entire games from elementary school to college have to deal with a limited role. Some can take the emotional and physical toll immediately, while it takes others more time to acclimate to the NBA.

That’s what makes forecasting for Rookie of the Year so difficult. The past two seasons, the number one overall pick has taken home the award. But prior to that, it hasn’t been as cut and dried. Michael Carter-Williams won the award as the 11th pick in the 2013-2014 campaign, while Damian Lillard, the sixth overall pick, won it in 2012-2013. In fact, over the past ten seasons only five Rookie of the Year recipients have also been the number one pick.

Rookie of the Year is not like the MVP, where you’re looking for a rookie who’s on a winning team. In fact, in the past 10 seasons no rookie of the year has led their team to a winning record in their first season. Needless to say, winning isn’t a factor when it comes to winning the award.

So what are the common denominators that add up to winning the award? Well, statistics show us that every recipient since Mike Miller (2000-2001) has played over 30 minutes per game. Along with that, no rookie of the year has averaged single digits in points, and for the past 14 seasons we haven’t seen anyone who averaged fewer than 15 points per game win the award.

As much as we’d think injuries would be a disqualifier from the award, they haven’t been. Two recent examples are Kyrie Irving and Brandon Roy: They only played 51 and 57 games respectively, yet still managed to win the award. We’ve seen only three players in the past 13 seasons play all 82 games.

Coming into this season, there are several legitimate candidates for the award. We’ve listed seven players that we think could win Rookie of the Year based on some of the facts listed above.

  1. Joel Embiid – Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid is someone who probably wouldn’t be on this list three weeks ago. But due to Ben Simmons’ recent foot injury and Embiid’s strong preseason performances, he is definitely in the mix. Embiid, who was injured all of last season, looks revitalized and more mobile than anticipated. The third overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft, Embiid has been through two season-ending injuries and has never played in a regular season game, so while he’s older than just about every other candidate, he’s still technically eligible for the award.

The seven-foot center has been working out all summer and it has shown in preseason. Although he’s on a minutes restriction for good reason, he’s still been impressive. Most recently, he posted a double-double against the Washington Wizards in only 14 minutes.

It’s going to be hard for people to see him as a Rookie of the Year candidate when they’ve only seen him play five preseason games, but Embiid has a ton of potential on a team that needs him. While the front court has a backlog of talent, Embiid is clearly one of the best two-way centers they have. If the team can increase his minutes to over 25 per game and Embiid can manage to stay healthy, he can seriously challenge for the crown.

  1. Buddy Hield – New Orleans Pelicans

Hield is subject to a lot of criticism. His Summer League play was sub-par and his age begs the question: how much more can he develop and grow? At 22 years old, he’s older than a lot of players drafted in the 2013 and 2014’s draft classes.

The shooting guard out of Oklahoma was one of the most efficient scorers in NCAA history, but it took him 4 years to really develop into the talent he became. It’s good to see the progressive development year over year (7.8 points his freshman year to 25 points his senior year), but his ceiling is probably lower than other top-end players selected early in this year’s draft because of his age.

The great thing about Hield is the team he went to. New Orleans desperately needed shooting and they got it with Hield.

Hield’s ability to create his own shot off the dribble isn’t amazing, but his catch-and-shoot ability can be. It’s a good thing for New Orleans, because they already have multiple players that need the ball in their hands. Hield seems to work well in Gentry’s system and he should receive a steady number of minutes. As long as he shows progression throughout the year and receives the minutes we expect, it’s hard to believe he wont be in contention for Rookie of the Year.

  1. Brandon Ingram

New Lakers coach Luke Walton has already confirmed that Ingram won’t be starting. The former Duke standout has tons of potential, but many see him as an extreme work in progress. Of course, Ingram could find himself starting sooner rather than later if he shows that he can produce even with the learning curve ahead. But starting or not, he’s bound to see a lot of time. With his size and shooting ability, don’t be surprised to see him get into the race.

After playing 28 minutes in his most recent preseason game, it’s apparent Ingram still has a lot of growing to do. He had seven points, two assists, and two rebounds in that game, but has yet to get into double figures in any statistical category throughout preseason. Given the amount of time he’s played, his numbers are a little underwhelming. But we should have confidence that he’ll improve game by game.

The early comparisons to Kevin Durant is a reach to say the least. No one should expect Ingram to average 20 points, 2.4 assists, and 4.4 rebounds like Durant in his rookie year. But it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see Ingram develop quickly and make significant growth as a double-digit scorer for the Lakers.

  1. Jamal Murray – Denver Nuggets

Murray, the 6’4 shooting guard out of Kentucky, is bound to get an opportunity with the Nuggets. With fellow starting shooting guard Gary Harris out with a groin injury, we may see Murray get more minutes early on.

In preseason, Murray is averaging 11.3 points on 41 percent shooting. With the ability to create shots off the dribble and rebound efficiently, he’ll be a prime candidate to win Rookie of the Year.

While Will Barton and fellow rookie Malik Beasley may take minutes from Murray, he still seems in line for a hefty workload. At only 19, Murray still has loads of potential to go along with a primary scorer’s skill set.

Remember, Murray averaged 20 points and five rebounds per game in college on a team that’s produced the most NBA talent in the country over the past 10 seasons. If he can get a hold of a starting role while playing close to 30 minutes a game, put Murray up there as a contender for the award.

  1. Kris Dunn – Minnesota Timberwolves

Dunn lit up the Summer League with 24 points per game on 54 percent shooting. Even though it was Summer League, the efficiency and ability were clearly there.

However, preseason has certainly changed that mentality for Dunn. Averaging 24 minutes in preseason, you would’ve thought Dunn’s output would be better than 4.7 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. He’s shooting 18.5 percent from the field and with Rubio on the roster, some fear Dunn may not get much playing time early on.

Even if he doesn’t start, Dunn should still ultimately average about 24 minutes a night. Currently, Rubio may be the known commodity and a safer bet. But if Dunn can regain some of his confidence and return to a more efficient game, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him starting eventually.

The other added element is that Rubio has been subject to many trade rumors. If Rubio were to be traded, Dunn would immediately see an increase in minutes.

So while Dunn isn’t a surefire ROY candidate, it’s hard to see him outside of contention because of his situation. He’s got a coach with a great reputation in Tom Thibodeau, and a team that’s got a lot of young talent. Both are extremely hard to come by when you’re a high lottery pick.

  1. Ben Simmons – Philadelphia 76ers

This should have an asterisk next to him because of his most recent injury. Simmons won’t be able to compete in an NBA game for at least the next three months. The number one overall pick and consensus pick for rookie of the year suffered a significant foot injury that will likely keep him sidelined for the majority of the season.

If he can beat the odds in his rehab, Simmons could likely make an immediate impact for the 76ers. His physical ability, vision, and size are something very few players possess. While he may not be an efficient scorer, he still has the makings of an extremely unique NBA talent.

  1. Thon Maker – Milwaukee Bucks

Maker came into the draft with so many question marks. From his true age to his raw ability, there were many “red flags.” Even so, the Bucks felt confident enough to take him with the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft. Boasting the highest no-step vertical (32″) of any player over 6’11 in NBA draft history, Maker clearly has tremendous potential.

In Summer League, Maker made opposing teams feel guilty for not putting him on their draft boards. He averaged 14.6 points and 9.6 rebounds in Summer League, becoming a standout due to his size and production.

This preseason, though, it’s been a clear learning curve for him. Maker has averaged 5.5 points and three rebounds per outing in 19.5 minutes a night. While this isn’t great, it isn’t bad either. The 19-year old Maker has tons of potential and room to grow in Milwaukee, but he’ll need to work through his mistakes and continue to be given opportunities to succeed.

Maker can become a double-double machine on the Bucks, but Milwaukee will need to let him play through mistakes in order to keep him confident. With Greg Monroe on the outside looking in and Jabari Parker, Miles Plumlee, and John Henson in the frontcourt, it won’t be easy for Maker to make an impact. But if he can, we may see him breakout and turn into the Rookie of the Year.

Oliver Maroney is an NBA writer for Basketball Insiders. He is based in Portland and covers the league as a whole.

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Defensive Player Of The Year Watch – 11/17/17

Spencer Davies updates the list of names to keep an eye on and who’s in contention for DPOY.

Spencer Davies

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We’re exactly one month into the season now, as the NBA standings have started to take shape headed into winter.

A couple of weeks ago, Basketball Insiders released its first Defensive Player of the Year Watch article to go in-depth on players that could compete for the prestigious award. Since then, there have been injuries keeping most of the household names out of the picture.

Guys like Rudy Gobert (knee) and Al-Farouq Aminu (ankle) have been or will be sidelined for weeks. Kawhi Leonard has yet to make his season debut recovering from a bothersome right quad.

While that isn’t the best news for fans and the league at the moment, it’s likely that those players will be just fine and return with the same impact they’ve always made. In the meantime, there are opportunities for others to throw their names in the hat as elite defenders. With new names and mainstays, here’s a look at six healthy candidates.

6) Joel Embiid

Trusting the Process in Philadelphia was worth the wait. As polished as the seven-footer is with the ball in his hands on offense, he might be even more dangerous as an interior defensive presence.

One of ten players in the NBA averaging at least a block and a steal per game, Embiid makes a world of a difference for in limiting opponents. Through 14 games, the Philadelphia 76ers are allowing just 96.4 points per 100 possessions with him playing. Furthering that, he’s the only one on the floor who dips the team’s defensive rating below 100 and has the second-highest Defensive Real Plus-Minus rating (3.03) in the NBA.

5) Kristaps Porzingis

Like Embiid, it’s been an incredible season for the one called The Unicorn. Before the season started, Porzingis stated it was a goal of his to accomplish three things—an All-Star game appearance, Most Improved Player, and Defensive Player of the Year.

So far, he’s on the right track. Outside of being the league’s third-highest scorer (28.9 points per game), the Latvian big man is hounding and deterring shot attempts nearly every time inside. According to SportVU data, Porzingis is allowing his opponents to only convert 35.1 percent of their attempts at the rim, which is the lowest by far among his peers seeing at least four tries per game. Oh, and when he’s off the floor, the Knicks have a 112.4 defensive rating, which is 9.3 more points per 100 possessions than with him on.

4) Nikola Jokic

At the beginning of the season, it looked like the same old story with the Denver Nuggets defense, but their intensity has stepped up on that end of the floor for the past couple of weeks. Playing next to new running mate Paul Millsap has taken some getting used to, but it seems like the two frontcourt partners have started to mesh well.

Though it might not have been the case a season ago, the Denver Nuggets are a net -12.4 per 100 possessions defensively without Jokic on the court as opposed to a team-best 100.1 defensive rating with him on. A huge knock on the Serbian sensation last year and before then was his inability to defend. He’s still got things to work on as a rim protector with his timing, but the progress is coming. He’s seventh in the league in total contested shots (168) and has been forcing turnovers like a madman. Averaging 1.6 steals per game, Jokic has recorded at least one takeaway in all but two games.

3) Draymond Green

In the first DPOY watch article, the Golden State Warriors had been better off defensively with Green sitting. That right there should tell you how much we can really put into data in small sample sizes. It’s changed dramatically since that point in time.

Without Green playing, the Golden State Warriors have a defensive rating of 105.4 as opposed to 98.4 on the same scale with him on the floor. His matchups are starting to grow weary of driving on him again, as he’s seen less than four attempts at the basket. Currently, in DRPM, he ranks eighth with a 2.60 rating.

2) Al Horford

The Boston Celtics are still the number one team in the NBA in defensive rating. Horford is still the straw that stirs the drink for Brad Stevens. If you didn’t see that watching that knockdown, drag-it-out game against the Warriors on Thursday, go back and watch it.

He has the highest net rating on the team among starters and is leading the team by altering shots and grabbing rebounds with aggressiveness we haven’t seen since he played for the Atlanta Hawks. Ranking fourth in Defensive Box Plus-Minus and in DRPM, Horford is continuing to make his presence felt.

1) DeMarcus Cousins

Dominance is the word to describe Cousins’ game. With a month-long absence of Gobert, he has a real chance to show fans and voters that his defensive side of him is no façade.

Next to his partner Anthony Davis, Boogie has kept up the physicality and technique of locking up assignments. The third and final member of this list averaging at least a block and steal per game, Cousins is at the top of the mountain in DRPM with a 3.13 rating.

The New Orleans Pelicans significantly benefit with him on the hardwood (102.3 DRTG) as opposed to him on the bench (112.7 DTRG). He’s one of six players in the league seeing more than six attempts at the rim, and he’s allowed the lowest success percentage among that group. He’s also contested 193 shots, which is the second-most in the NBA.

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Gregg Popovich Continues To Be The Gold Standard For Leadership

There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes and Gregg Popovich.

Moke Hamilton

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There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes and the San Antonio Spurs.

Okay, let’s be honest, it’s probably not the first time that you’ve heard that one, but it also won’t be the last.

Behind the genius of Gregg Popovich, the Spurs have qualified for the NBA Playoffs 20 consecutive years. In hindsight, they appear to have been the only team to legitimately frighten the Golden State Warriors during their 16-1 playoff run last year, and this season, well, they’ve been the same old Spurs.

That’s been especially amazing considering the fact that the team has been without Kawhi Leonard. Although Popovich recently said that Leonard would return “sooner rather than later,” he himself admitted to not being certain as to what that meant.

Best guess from here is that Leonard will return within the next few weeks, but at this point, it’s entirely fair to wonder whether or not it even matters.

Of course, the Spurs don’t stand much of a chance to win the Western Conference without Leonard thriving at or near 100 percent, but even without him, the Spurs look every bit like a playoff team, and in the Western Conference, that’s fairly remarkable.

“A team just has to play in a sense like he doesn’t exist,” Popovich was quoted as saying by Tom Osborn of the San Antonio Express-News.

“Nobody cares if you lost a good player, right? Everybody wants to whip you. So it doesn’t do much good to do the poor me thing or to keep wondering when he is going to be back or what are we going to do. We have to play now, and other people have to take up those minutes and we have to figure out who to go to when in a different way, and you just move on.”

In a nutshell, that’s Popovich.

What most people don’t understand about Popovich is what makes him a truly great coach is his humility. He is never afraid to second-guess himself and reconsider the way that he’s accustomed to doing things. Since he’s been the head coach of the Spurs, he’s built and rebuilt offenses around not only different players, but also different philosophies.

From the inside-out attack that was his bread and butter with David Robinson and Tim Duncan to the motion and movement system that he built around Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the latest incarnation of Popovich’s genius isn’t only the fact that he has survived without Kawhi Leonard, it’s what could fairly be considered the major catalyst of it.

There are many head coaches around the league that take their roles as authority figures quite seriously, and that’s why a fair number would have been threatened by one of their star players requesting that things be rebuilt in a way to maximize his potential.

So when LaMarcus Aldridge proactively sat down with his coach to discuss the ways that he felt he was being misused in the team’s schemes, it wouldn’t have come as a shock for Popovich to meet him with resistance.

Instead, he did the opposite.

“We have talked about what we can do to make him more comfortable, and to make our team better,” Popovich acknowledged during Spurs training camp.

“But having said that, I think we are mostly talking about offense. Defense, he was fantastic for us. Now, we have got to help him a little bit more so that he is comfortable in his own space offensively, and I haven’t done a very good job of that.”

Just 11 days after those comments were printed, the Spurs announced that they had signed Aldridge to a three-year, $72 million extension.

Considering that Aldridge’s first two years as a member of the Spurs yielded some poor efforts and relatively low output, the extension seemed curious and was met with ridicule.

Yet, one month later and 15 games into the season, the Spurs sit at 9-6. They’ve survived the absence of Kawhi Leonard and the loss of Jonathon Simmons.

Behind an offensive system tweaked to take advantage of his gifts, in the early goings, Aldridge is averaging 22 points per game, a far cry above the 17.7 points per game he averaged during his first two years in San Antonio.

Coincidence?

I think not.

Death, taxes and the Spurs.

So long as Gregg Popovich is at the helm, exhibiting strong leadership while remaining amazingly humble, the Spurs will be the Spurs.

Sure, Kawhi Leonard will be back—at some point.

But until then, the Spurs will be just fine.

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NBA AM: Atlanta’s Dewayne Dedmon Is Letting Shots — And Jokes — Fly

Dewayne Dedmon’s emergence has been an unexpected positive for the rebuilding Atlanta Hawks.

Buddy Grizzard

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It’s been a brutal season for the Atlanta Hawks, they’re just already 3-12 with the worst record in the Eastern Conference.

Wednesday’s franchise-record 46-point win over the visiting Sacramento Kings was a rare chance for Atlanta to have a laugh in the postgame locker room and reflect on things that have gone well, including hot shooting for the team and a potential breakout season for center Dewayne Dedmon.

The Hawks trail only the Golden State Warriors in three-point shooting at just over 40 percent. Prior to joining the Hawks, Dedmon had attempted only one three-pointer in 224 career games. As a Hawk, though, Dedmon is shooting 42 percent on 19 attempts. Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer explained after Wednesday’s game how his staff decided to encourage Dedmon to extend his range.

“You do your research and you talk to friends around the league, you talk to people who have worked with him and you watch him during warmups,” said Budenholzer. “We had a belief, an idea, that he could shoot, he could make shots. We’re kind of always pushing that envelope with the three-point line. He’s embraced it.”

Dedmon is currently averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, blocks and minutes, and set season-highs in points (20), rebounds (14) and assists (five) against the Kings. He’s also brought an offbeat sense of humor that has helped keep the locker room loose despite the struggles. It became apparent early on that Dedmon was a different type of dude.

At Media Day, when nobody approached Dedmon’s table and reporters instead flocked to interview rookie John Collins at the next table, Dedmon joined the scrum, holding his phone out as if to capture a few quotes.

“This guy’s going to be a character,” said a passing Hawks staffer.

Those words proved prophetic, as Coach Bud confirmed after Wednesday’s win.

“He brings a lot of personality to our team, really from almost the day he got here,” said Budenholzer. “I think he’s getting more and more comfortable and can help the young guys and help everybody.”

Dedmon took an unconventional path to the NBA. Growing up, his mother — a Jehovah’s Witness — forbade him to play organized sports. Once he turned 18, Dedmon began making his own decisions. He walked on to the team at Antelope Valley College, a two-year school in Lancaster, Ca., before transferring to USC and eventually making it to the league.

His personality, which formed while Dedmon forged his own path, shone through in the locker room after the Sacramento win. Asked about conversations he’s had with Budenholzer about shot selection, Dedmon turned to teammate Kent Bazemore at the adjacent locker.

“What’s the phrase, Baze? LTMF?”

“Yep,” Bazemore replied.

“Yeah, LTMF,” Dedmon continued. “Let it fly. So he told me to shoot … let it go. I’m not going to say what the M means.”

Amidst laughter from the assembled media, he explained that ‘LTMF’ is Budenholzer’s philosophy for the whole team, not just part of an effort to expand Dedmon’s game.

“Everybody has the same freedom,” said Dedmon. “So it definitely gives everybody confidence to shoot their shots when they’re open and just play basketball.”

With the injury bug thus far robbing Atlanta of its stated ambition to overachieve this season, Dedmon’s career year and team success from three-point range are two big positives.

Rebuilding or retooling can be a painful process. But with a unique personality like Dedmon helping keep things light in the locker room, Atlanta should make it through.

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