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Handicapping the 2016-17 NBA MVP Race

Always difficult to predict, the 2016-17 NBA MVP race may be one of the more interesting in recent memory.

Moke Hamilton

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Last season, after leading his Golden State Warriors to the most wins in an NBA regular season, Stephen Curry became the first player to ever be unanimously voted the league’s Most Valuable Player. It was the 13th time that the award was won by the same player in back-to-back years, and now, this season, he will attempt to join the likes of Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird as the only players in the history of the league to win the award three times in a row – with Bird last completing the rare trifecta in 1986.

The odds may be stacked against Curry, though. The Warriors may be title favorites, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he or his new teammate in Kevin Durant will walk away from this season with the distinction. That’s hard to believe considering Durant and Curry have combined to win the last three MVP awards, but the truth is that they will likely hurt one another’s cause.

Or will they?

Basketball Insiders handicaps the race for the 2016-17 NBA season’s Most Valuable Player Award.

The Contenders

Chris Paul (Point Guard, Los Angeles Clippers)

There are a fair amount of people who believe that Chris Paul deserved the Most Valuable Player Award over Kobe Bryant back in 2008. Paul admirably led a sparsely talented New Orleans Hornets team to 56 wins and the second seed in the Western Conference. They finished one game behind Bryant’s Lakers and Paul ended up finishing a distant second to Bryant after the votes had been tallied.

Still, the Clippers will enter the season as a favorite to finish in the top three out West, and with the distance between the contenders in the conference and the lower echelon teams seemingly becoming greater, the Clippers should have a relatively easy time eclipsing 55 wins. That is, of course, assuming they stay healthy.

In years past, there has been more and more attention given to Blake Griffin, and deservedly so, but after losing Paul during last year’s first round, the Clippers folded like a cheap suit. Subliminally, that may have the effect of Paul’s perceived value being restored. If he backs that up simply by doing what he has done for the Clippers recently (he has averaged over 19 points and 10 assists per game for each of the past three seasons), he may emerge as the front runner.

All things considered, if the Thunder don’t win 50 games and the Warriors don’t win 70, Paul (or LeBron James) could end up winning the award by default, almost.

LeBron James (Small Forward, Cleveland Cavaliers)

Stephen Curry may be in the running to become just the fourth player to win the award three consecutive times, but James is the only player aside from Bill Russell to have actually won the award four times in five years. James won the award in 2009 and 2010 as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers before yielding the award to Derrick Rose in 2011. James followed that by winning the award in 2012 and 2013, with each of those seasons ending with a Miami HEAT championship.

James is now at the age where he will pitch-count himself over the course of the long season, but with Curry and Durant having teamed up, getting the Cavaliers north of 60 wins would certainly result in James receiving at least a few first-place votes. Although last season’s 25.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists were far from his most impressive statistical season, he has a lot left in the tank and seems poised to take home the award for the fifth time. That is, of course, assuming he wants it.

Russell Westbrook (Point Guard, Oklahoma City Thunder)

The Most Valuable Player Award is typically awarded to someone whose team achieves great success. It’s difficult to imagine Westbrook win the award, but rules were meant to be broken.

In all honesty, let’s just say for argument’s sake that Westbrook is able to record 25 triple-doubles this coming season. If he does that and the Thunder win 47 games, depending on how other things shake out, many voters would consider him. Now, just imagine that the Thunder somehow win 52 games. The thought may seem overly optimistic, but Westbrook has a solid supporting cast and remember, the Thunder managed to win 45 games during the 2014-15 season. That happened with a weaker supporting cast and Kevin Durant playing in all of 27 games.

Everyone loves an underdog. And the stage has been set for Westbrook to emerge as a front runner.

Kawhi Leonard (Small Forward, San Antonio Spurs)

Tim Duncan may have decided to call it a career, but with Gregg Popovich still calling the shots in San Antonio, expect the Spurs to be in the mix in the end. At this point, nobody remembers, but last season, at 65-12, the Spurs had a legitimate shot to go for 70 wins. Popovich obviously opted not to, but suffice to say the Spurs are a really good team. Although Duncan will be missed, he played just 25 minutes per game and averaged less than nine points per contest. In all likelihood, Pau Gasol will be able to replace his production.

If the Spurs get anywhere near 65 wins this season, don’t be surprised to see Leonard getting a lot of MVP love. That is, of course, assuming he improves upon last season’s 21.2 points per game.

Stephen Curry (Point Guard, Golden State Warriors)

The bar has been set incredibly high for the Warriors, it’s almost not even fair. If this team is capable of winning 73 games without Kevin Durant, what would it take for them to exceed expectations this season?

The answer there? It’s a trick question. It’s probably not possible for the Warriors to exceed expectations this season, but that doesn’t mean that it’s impossible for Curry to actually score what many would consider an upset by winning the Most Valuable Player Award for the third consecutive year. If he comes close to last season’s 30.1 points per game and gets the Warriors to 70 wins, then the voters, out of principle, will likely crown Curry the MVP again.

The problem in it all is that nothing will give you more perspective than winning the MVP award and winning a record-setting 73 games, only to come up short when it matters most. In all likelihood, the Warriors will lose their first game of the season during its first week and head into the All-Star break with more than a few losses. Still, where there’s a Curry, there’s a way, so we wouldn’t discount his chances completely.

The Second Tier

James Harden (Point Guard, Houston Rockets): The move to point guard will probably help Harden’s numbers, and that’s scary considering last season’s 29 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.5 assists were already out of this world. The concern with Harden will be corralling enough votes if his team doesn’t win enough games. Do you think the Rockets have enough talent to win 50 games out West? If not, it would take a perfect storm for Harden to walk away as MVP.

Kevin Durant (Small Forward, Golden State Warriors): Without question, a trans-generational talent. The only concern is that he is overlooked in Oakland. In all likelihood, his efficiency will skyrocket, but unless he does something tremendous, he will likely be penalized the same way that LeBron James was in his first season with the Miami HEAT. A fair number of voters didn’t vote for James simply because of the help he had. What would it take for Durant to overcome that type of bias?

Paul George (Small Forward, Indiana Pacers): Once a defensive-first team, the Indiana Pacers have a new head coach and, frankly, a new identity. What Paul George has working in his favor, though, is the fact that he has talent flanking him and he is coming off of what is arguably his finest statistical season. It’s hard to see the Pacers doing enough damage for George to beat out the likes of Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and Stephen Curry, but respect is due.

Anthony Davis (Power Forward, New Orleans Pelicans): Agreed, Anthony Davis hasn’t done much for us lately, but he did finish fifth in MVP voting for the 2014-15 season. The Pelicans have a lot of work to do, but there are few players in the game who are capable of making an impact on both ends quite like Davis. Fear the brow; if he’s healthy, he will likely be an MVP-caliber performer. But are the Pelicans even a playoff team?

Damian Lillard: (Point Guard, Portland Trail Blazers): The Trail Blazers certainly won’t be sneaking up on anyone this coming season, especially not after spending truckloads to build out the talent base surrounding Lillard and C.J. McCollum. There are quite a few that don’t even expect the Blazers to win the Northwest Division this year, so if they manage to overachieve again, don’t be surprised for Lillard to accomplish the rare feat of going from All-Star snub to MVP contender.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving (Point Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers): Never say never, but it’s difficult to see Irving finding a way to overshadow LeBron James.

Carmelo Anthony (Small Forward, New York Knicks): Call it a catch-22, but for the Knicks to approach the win total required for Carmelo to get consideration, they would need the supporting cast to play out of their mind, which would diminish ‘Melo’s credit.

Blake Griffin (Power Forward, Los Angeles Clippers): If he is the team’s alpha-male and takes playmaking pressure off of Chris Paul, watch out!

DeMarcus Cousins (Center, Sacramento Kings): When you’re giving us 26.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks per game, we care less about your team’s win total. We got love for you.

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NBA Daily: Kevin Knox and Kristaps Porzingis Already Have One Thing In Common

Kevin Knox’s experience on draft night was eerily similar to that of Kristaps Porzingis.

Moke Hamilton

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Michael Porter, Jr. might be the next Kevin Durant, but he could just as easily be the next Greg Oden.

And if you’re searching for comfort in the wake of the decision of the Knicks to pass on the opportunity to draft the young man who was widely regarded as being the top prospect in the class of 2018, it is pretty easy to find in the fact that of all people, Jerry West decided that Porter wasn’t worth the risk, either.

While Porter might end up being a Hall of Famer, when it comes to drafting prospects, we might as well be shooting in the dark. We all knew that Markelle Fultz was the best option for the Sixers in last year’s draft, and 12 other teams clearly had no idea what Donovan Mitchell had in store for the league.

Heck, four years ago, as I was recently reminded by someone on Twitter, I predicted that the Knicks would select Emmanuel Mudiay with their fourth pick. Instead, they walked away with Kristaps Porzingis.

If I were the man making the call back then, with the information I had, I certainly would have drafted Mudiay. And you know what? That decision probably would have gotten me fired, and rightfully so.

The true moral of the story is that we simply can’t see into the future and all the analytics in the world won’t able to measure things like guts and heart. So as the Knicks pin their hopes on Kevin Knox, it truly will be interesting to see how the career arcs of he and Porter compare.

As for why we would single out the Knicks and make the franchise’s decision to draft Knox over him a personal one, quite a few people in the know relayed the same information on the Knicks and Porter going back to their date at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago in May—they loved each other.

Thereafter, there were reports that the Knicks were looking to move up in the draft, and Porter was on their minds. On Thursday night in Barclays Center, with the Knicks on the clock, their fans in attendance cheered for Porter, as they were hopeful that he would be selected to be the franchise’s next stud.

They were disappointed, and now, they’ll hope that Scott Perry’s decision to go with Knox ends up being the right one. It might be, just like Porzingis was the right pick over Mudiay, and it might not be, just like selecting Frank Ntilikina over Mitchell wasn’t.

Like it or not, though, the two young men will forever be linked, both in my mind and in the minds of plenty of other Knicks fans.

“That’s just motivation,” Knox said of the Knicks fans in attendance chanting Porter’s name.

“A lot of people want him to get to the Knicks, but I mean, it’s all good with me. I’m ready to get to work. I’m ready to get to work and ready to prove people in Summer League and prove people in the NBA.”

Knox’s experience on draft night was remarkably similar to that of Porzingis, and now, if you even so much as suggest trading the Latvian unicorn for a player such as Kyrie Irving, Knicks fans just might call for your head.

It’s strange how quickly things can change for you in New York City. At the end of the day, it comes down to working hard and earning the adoration of the faithful in Gotham City. Porzingis succeeded there, and there’s every reason to believe that Knox will, as well.

“They booed Porzingis (on draft night) and look where he is now,” the rookie remarked.

“They can chant Michael Porter all they want, but they got Kevin Knox, and I’m willing to work and I’m willing to get better.”

When asked, Knox would tell you that he and Jayson Tatum happen to have something in common. According to him, neither of the two really got an opportunity to show what they could do at the collegiate level.

With more opportunities and more repetitions, the sky truly is the limit for the 18-year-old.

“I think I can pretty much play all around the floor,” Knox said.

“I can handle the ball, pick-and-roll situations, make plays, make passes. I can stretch the floor, shoot the ball, get rebounds, push it coast to coast. So I think that versatility in the league is something that a lot of teams really need, and I think that’s something I can bring to the Knicks right now.”

Privately, to members of the Knicks organization, Knox has spoken highly of the spotlight that he’s bound to face in New York and believes that playing at Kentucky helped to prepare him for the type of demanding environment that he’ll be introduced to once the season gets underway in New York. And even without a bad back, the crushing expectations and heavy burden could cause a weaker minded player to crumble.

A FaceTime call with Porzingis on draft night went a long way toward giving the rookie the confidence that he’ll need to thrive in New York.

That the franchise’s pride and joy immediately reached out to his new running mate to congratulate him, welcome him to the team and give him some insight is a good sign. At the very least, it shows that Porzingis takes his responsibility as being the team’s lead man seriously.

At most, it could signal K.P.’s being pleased with the selection.

We’re about to embark upon the story of Kevin Knox. We’ve only seen the preamble.

You can’t judge a book by its cover, and you certainly can’t know how the final chapter will end based on what you’ve read in the first chapter. So no, the Knicks fans that wanted Michael Porter on their squad didn’t get their wish, but in the long run, they may end up being better for it.

Just like Kristaps Porzingis, Knox wasn’t received warmly by Knicks fans on draft night.

Hopefully, for the rookie, it’s not the last thing he and the beloved Porzingis will have in common.

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NBA Daily: Lessons From The 2018 NBA Draft

After a wild 2018 NBA Draft, here are four lessons and storylines worth watching over the next few years.

Ben Nadeau

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Now that the dust has settled on an unpredictable NBA Draft — what exactly have we learned? In amongst the unrelenting rumors, refused workouts and surprise reaches, there are a few key takeaways from Brooklyn. Of course, some of these are one-off instances, but others are definitely part of modern-day draft patterns. While draft night may sometimes seem like complete chaos or chance, each scenario on this rundown has been boiling over for weeks. Between passing on a talented prospect to letting an injured one slide, here are four important lessons from the 2018 NBA Draft.

Luka Dončić… Not The No. 1?

For months and months, it appeared as if Luka Dončić was poised to become the No. 1 overall pick in this draft. Even today, it’s hard to believe that somebody with Dončić’s age and resume wasn’t the top selection. In 2017-18 alone, the Slovenian took home EuroLeague MVP and Finals MVP plus ACB MVP, with championships in both leagues to boot — but here we are. Dončić averaged 14.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.1 steals over just 25 minutes per game, quickly transforming into the most well-rounded overseas prospect of all-time. But as impressive as Dončić was throughout the spring, the potential ceilings of both DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III eventually won out.

At 7-foot-1, Ayton’s 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game were undeniably worthy of a top selection too, pairing well alongside Devin Booker and Josh Jackson for the foreseeable future. While the jury is still out on Bagley III — his defense needs some major fine-tuning — he won’t take key touches away from De’Aaron Fox either. More or less, nobody wants to be the organization to miss on such a franchise-altering pick. The Suns, Kings and even the Hawks may eventually regret passing on Dončić, but when general managers’ entire careers can depend on making the right choice at the right time, it’s not difficult to understand why the top of the draft unfolded as it did.

Playing Hard To Get Doesn’t Always Work Out…

As draft boards began to take shape, there was one particularly interesting situation sitting at No. 4 overall. Jaren Jackson Jr., solidly leading the second tier of prospects, was looking like a lock at the Memphis Grizzlies’ pick — but with one major caveat: Jackson Jr. reportedly didn’t work out or give his medical information to the franchise. After he was drafted, Jackson Jr. called those rumors “a tad out of context” — but, obviously, those are some massive red flags. Either way, Memphis went with their gut and selected the talented forward anyway.

But beyond all that, Memphis absolutely made the right move by sticking to their guns. Putting a modern three-point shooting, defensive-minded athlete next to Marc Gasol should prove to be an absolute nightmare for years to come. Naturally, Jackson Jr. will get plenty of easy looks from the stellar Mike Conley Jr. too — so if the draftee was once apprehensive, surely that will pass soon. Still, it reflects on a larger NBA pattern, wherein which prospective athletes sensibly look to mold their own path out of college. With players trying to control their draft narratives more than ever, it’s reassuring to see that some franchises will take their target first and then figure out the rest.

We may never know Jackson Jr.’s full thought process behind not working out for the Grizzlies, but there’s a great chance that the former Spartan was made for Memphis’ tough brand of basketball — and we should all be glad we’ll get to see it.

…But Injuries Will Lead To A Slide

Michael Porter Jr. — what a year for him, huh?

After missing out on much of his only collegiate season due to back surgery, Porter Jr. promised that he was feeling better than ever. But over the last month, scouts and front offices were treated to canceled workouts and hazy uncertainty. And, at the end of the day, it probably scared a handful of franchises away from the talented scorer. Just this week, the Kings heavily considered Porter Jr. at No. 2 overall — but even with that sudden unlikelihood passing by, few thought he’d drop out of the top ten altogether. Outside of the guaranteed money that Porter Jr. will miss out on, redshirting his rookie year may also be on the table as well.

The inherent upside with Porter Jr. is obvious, but — similarly to the Dončić issue — it’s tough to ask franchise officials to stake their livelihood on the prospect’s health. If Porter Jr.’s lingering issues stay with him and he never reaches his mountain of potential, that’s a tough pill to swallow. The 19-year-old would fall all the way down to No. 14, where the Denver Nuggets gladly scooped him up. During the combine in May, Porter Jr. called himself the best player in the draft — but it’s now up to him to prove them all wrong.

The Mysterious Men Nearly Miss Out

Let’s rewind to early April. Villanova had been just crowned NCAA champions for the second time in three years, the NBA playoffs were soundly on the horizon and mock drafts had begun to consistently pour out. Early on, there were two athletic big men that looked like shoo-ins as first-rounders: Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson. Despite their undercooked skill-sets, both players pulled out of the combine and then waited for the hype to build — except, well, it didn’t. Williams, who was typically projected in the early teens, slipped out of the lottery entirely, only to be rescued by the Boston Celtics at No. 27. Williams is a booming, powerful prospect, but he could’ve really benefited from competing against the other top prospects in May.

Although he’s now landed in an ideal situation with Brad Stevens, Al Horford and a process-driven Celtics squad, Williams likely cost himself a whole load of money over the last 30-plus days as well.

In Robinson’s case, many believed his floor was the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 25 — rumors swirling that the 7-foot-1 center even received a promise from the illustrious franchise. Instead, Robinson dropped to the New York Knicks at No. 36 overall. Robinson had originally committed to Western Kentucky in July of 2017 before dropping out to prepare for the draft. After skipping the combine last month, Robinson indeed exhibited the potential to be both a steady shot-blocker and three-point maker during his individual evaluations. But with little to go off of but high school highlight reels and small session workout tapes, he understandably fell.

Sometimes the hype is impossible to ignore, but not participating in the combine and staying as mysterious as possible hurt these ultra-talented prospects.

While the 2018 NBA Draft wasn’t quite the trade-heavy, drama-laden extravaganza much of the world expected, there are plenty of narratives to reflect upon. At the end of the day, the ink is barely dry on this year’s festivities and it’ll be some time before there’s any indication of these successes or failures. Still, there are lessons to be learned from every draft, workout or injury process and these are four conversations worth considering as the NBA quickly rolls into the summer league season.

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2018 NBA Draft Diary

NBA Daily: The Losers of the NBA Draft

Shane Rhodes breaks down the losers of the 2018 NBA Draft.

Shane Rhodes

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The 2018 NBA Draft season has come to a close. And, while the actual draft wasn’t the fireworks show that it could have been, there was still plenty of surprises, both good and bad.

While Basketball Insiders’ Simon Hannig discussed the winners of the draft, not everyone was so fortunate. And, while the draft can come down to chance, some teams were worse off than others.

Let’s take a look at some of the bigger losers from draft night

Mikal Bridges

Talk about heartbreak.

Mikal Bridges was going home. The Philadelphia 76ers selected the Villanova standout with the No. 10 pick. Bridges did an entire press conference, talking about what it was like to be staying in Philadelphia. His mother, Tyneeha Rivers, is even the Global VP of Human Resources for Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment, the company that owns the team. It was perfect.

And then it wasn’t.

It’s hard to not feel bad for Bridges, who was dropped into a dream scenario and then had it all ripped away. Going to the Phoenix Suns, an organization heading in a new direction, to play alongside plenty of young, high upside talent, including No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton as well as former lottery picks Josh Jackson and Devin Booker, isn’t the worst thing in the world for the rookie forward. Bridges could even flourish in Phoenix.

But it certainly won’t compare to playing under the bright lights in Philadelphia alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid come next April and for years to come.

Michael Porter Jr.

One year ago, Michael Porter Jr. was a top three draft prospect projected to go as high as No. 1 overall. However, with rumors of questionable medicals swirling throughout the draft process, he dropped all the way to the Denver Nuggets at No. 14 overall.

While Porter will certainly welcome the chip on his shoulder, the lost earnings will definitely hurt him and his pocket. Porter is missing out on millions on his first NBA contract. Plus, the sheer amount of teams that balked at his medicals doesn’t bode well for his long-term future in the NBA.

It isn’t all bad for Porter; Denver has a young, talented roster and was one win away from a postseason birth last year. They can afford to be patient with Porter’s back, should he need to miss some time, as well. Standing 6-foot-11, 211 pounds and with a smooth jumper, Porter still has a great chance to be a star in this league.

Still, it was an inauspicious beginning to what, hopefully, is a long NBA career.

Sacramento Kings

This could apply to the Sacramento Kings roster as well as their fanbase.

The Kings got “their guy” in No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III. And, while Bagley is still an amazing talent, the pick just seems like more of the same for the Kings, who have a glut of bigs — Willie-Cauley Stein, Harry Giles III, Skal Labissiere, Kostas Koufos — on the roster and a distinct lack of high-quality guard or wing depth.

In steps Luka Dončić, the 19-year-old Slovenian phenom. With the Suns taking Ayton with the top pick, the Kings had their chance to shore up their backcourt for the foreseeable future alongside De’Aaron Fox and move another step closer to relevancy.

And they whiffed.

Dončić could very well end up as the best player in the class. While he isn’t the most athletic, Dončić is exactly where the NBA is going; he is a multipositional defender and playmaker that can shoot the three. Meanwhile, Bagley, who is a questionable fit in the modern game, will be hardpressed to find playing time early on in his Kings tenure. Even worse, with their hearts set on Bagley, the Kings likely could have traded down a la the Atlanta Hawks and picked up another asset for their troubles.

While it’s much too early to call it either way, this is a pick that could come back to haunt Sacramento down the line.

Cleveland Cavaliers

It was not a great night for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers missed out on one point-guard prospect, Trae Young, and another, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, flat out said he didn’t want to play for the franchise. And, even though they got a guard they liked in Alabama’s Collin Sexton, the Cavaliers are still in the unenviable position of dealing with LeBron James’ third iteration of The Decision.

Sexton’s selection doesn’t exactly help them retain James’ services either.

Since acquiring the pick from the Boston Celtics in the Kyrie Irving trade last summer, it had been speculated as to whether Cleveland would use the pick or trade it to get James help. With the team opting for the former, it’s difficult to imagine the Cavaliers getting any significant help for James, in free agency or otherwise, which could push him closer to leaving than he already may be. Meanwhile, Sexton, who dominated the ball during his time at Alabama, isn’t exactly the best fit alongside James in the event that he stays.

Either way, there appears to be a bumpy road ahead for the Cavaliers.

Washington Wizards

Troy Brown Jr. is a great pickup for the Washington Wizards. That still doesn’t mean he wasn’t a reach.

Brown is a twitchy wing that can defend multiple positions. But there were multiple wings that Washington could have taken ahead of Brown (e.g., Lonnie Walker II) that would have made this a better pick. Brown struggled as a shooter during his lone season at Oregon — he shot just 29.1 percent from three and has some iffy mechanics — and is a strange fit on the Wizards roster that already has a surplus of wing depth in John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Kelly Oubre.

With the team looking to move Marcin Gortat, a big would have been a better fit for Washington at 15. Or, if management was deadset on Brown, dropping back a few spots would have made more sense.

Brown certainly has the talent to make an impact, but it’s hard to like a pick that may not crack the rotation in year one, according to the Wizards own General Manager.

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors took a big step earlier this offseason, moving on from Dwane Casey and placing Nick Nurse at the helm in early June.

But, with zero picks in a loaded draft, the Raptors have to be considered losers.

There were plenty of difference makers available up-and-down the draft board, but the Raptors didn’t end up with any of them. While management could improve the team via trade or free agency come July, they still feature the same roster that got manhandled in the Eastern Conference Semifinals by James and the Cavaliers and that isn’t good.

Not everyone can come out a winner in a crapshoot like the NBA Draft. Still, some teams found themselves worse off than others when all was said and done. Luckily, those teams still have a chance to improve themselves with free agency right around the corner.

 

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