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Looking At The NBA Draft: The No. 4 Picks

Drew Maresca continues Basketball Insiders’ “Looking Back” series, analyzing all of the fourth overall picks since 2009.

Drew Maresca

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We at Basketball Insiders are torn over the COVID-19 pandemic and basketball: We badly want to get back to at least watching games – if not attending them – but fully understand the need to do so as safely as possible for the sake of the players, coaches, league and team personnel, fans and us – the media.

Considering that there are no concrete updates pertaining to re-starting the 2019-20 regular season, we will continue to analyze what we know by taking a look back at various facets of the game.

Today, let’s continue gauging each pick in the past 10 NBA Drafts, turning our attention to the fourth overall pick.

The fourth pick in the NBA Draft seems to carry its share of challenges. Considering the talent taken after the fourth pick, the lack of All-Stars coming from this spot is pretty shocking. Granted, teams typically miss on the headliners of a given draft at four, but there has been real talent available after the top three picks in each of the last 10 drafts. How did each fourth pick perform? Let’s look back through 2009 to decide.

Hits

Kristaps Porzingis – New York Knicks – 2015

Sorry in advance Knicks fans, but Porzingis is probably the best and more appropriate selection of all of the fourth overall picks taken in the last 10 years. He entered the draft as 2015’s mystery man. Outside of international scouts, all we knew about him came from EuroLeague highlights and a workout tape. But that was enough. In said footage, we saw a 7-foot-3 center who could shoot it like a guard, as well as run and leap like a wing. The lanky Latvian won over many prior to draft night – and the rest shortly after.

Porzingis averaged an impressive 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting 33.3 percent on three-point attempts as a rookie. Fast forward to the 2019-20 season and he averaged an impressive 19.2 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.1 blocks on 34.9 percent shooting from deep. And remember, Porzingis was still working his way back to form following a major knee injury suffered in the 2017-18 season – which he’d seemingly done successfully, having averaged 24.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game with 36.7 percent shooting from three in the most recent two-month stretch (14 games in February and March).

Porzingis is about as good as it gets with the fourth overall pick. He should inspire hope for the Timberwolves, who will pick fourth if the NBA chooses to skip the Draft Lottery.

Jaren Jackson Jr. – Memphis Grizzlies – 2019

Jackson Jr. appeared as safe a pick as possible. He’s big, stretches the floor, defends multiple positions and seems to be a genuinely nice guy. But teams have been fooled by all of those attributes before.

Only Jackson Jr. has been everything the Grizzlies hoped he’d be – and more. He was fifth overall in scoring per game amongst rookies (14.8 ppg). He was also second in blocks, and he shot 35.9 percent on three-point attempts. And that was before he paired up with rookie phenom Ja Morant.

Alongside Morant, Jackson Jr. averaged 16.9 points and 1.6 blocks per game, and he shot 39.7 percent on three-point attempts. He’ll have to improve his rebounding, but Jackson Jr. looks like a star in the making. He and Morant should be among the best one-two punches in the NBA for years to come.

Misses

Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings – 2009

Evans was perceived far differently just a few short years ago. He looked the part of a borderline star early on in his career, and he even secured the NBA Rookie of the Year award in 2009-10. And while he’s never been able to re-capture the magic he produced in his rookie season – Evans is one of five rookies in NBA history to average 20-5-5 (Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Luka Doncic) – he still put forth a number of successful seasons, including averaging 15-plus points per game seven times.

So why is Evans headlining the misses section of this article? Namely, because he got himself suspended for two years in the spring of 2019 for violating the league’s drug policy. And while he’s put up nice numbers: he only made it to the playoffs twice, went right before Stephen Curry (No. 7) and DeMar DeRozan (9), while Jrue Holiday (17) and Ricky Rubio (5) also had better careers.

So while Evans looked like a hit in the making, his inability to develop on his phenomenal rookie season along with his poor decision-making render him the most disappointing miss.

Dion Waiters – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2012

Waiters was selected in a weird draft – one in which we saw probably the biggest bust of the decade in Anthony Bennett taken first overall. The selection of Waiters wasn’t initially seen as unfavorable – he averaged 12.6 points and shot better than 36 percent from long range during his sophomore season at Syracuse.

But the problem with the Waiters choice is his lack of development in the NBA. He averaged essentially as many points per game in his rookie season (14.7) as he did in the fifth year – which was his most successful at 15.8. And he never really committed himself to getting or staying in shape.

This season has been especially rocky for Waiters. He averaged a career-low 9.6 points per game – only the second time in his eight-year career he’s scored less than 10. And that doesn’t get into his three suspensions (for failure to adhere to team policies, violation of team rules, continued insubordination, unprofessional conduct and allegedly ingesting a marijuana edible prior to boarding a team plane) either.

To make matters worse, Waiters was selected ahead of Damian Lillard. He’s been inconsistent at best and teams expect more from a fourth overall pick than what any of his three employers received.

Dragan Bender – Phoenix Suns – 2016

Bender was unfairly compared to Porzingis in the pre-draft analysis based entirely on the fact that they were both skilled European bigs. The comparison wasn’t fair to Bender, who struggled to secure minutes in his rookie season. He averaged just 3.4 points over 13.3 minutes per game. And his production hasn’t really picked up.

There is a functional glimmer of hope – Bender played his best basketball with Golden State to close the 2019-20 season by averaging 9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 21.7 minutes per game. But function and expectations are usually not aligned, and Bender hasn’t come close to living up to the hype associated with the fourth pick in the NBA Draft.

And what’s more, lots of athletes selected after Bender have prospered: Buddy Hield (No. 6), Jamal Murray (7), Domantas Sabonis (11), Caris LeVert (20), Pascal Siakam (27) and Dejounte Murray (29). Granted, there is typically a consensus of players that’ll go as high as Bender did, but, needless to say, the Suns would have been thrilled with any of those other options. He’s a 7-foot small forward, so teams will continue being intrigued by him – but he hasn’t done enough to be classified as anything but a miss.

Josh Jackson – Phoenix Suns – 2017

Nevermind the players who Jackson was taken before – a number of whom possess far more potential than does Jackson after just two seasons. But the selection of Jackson is a bad miss because his negative attributes might have been identified if the Suns were more critical.

Jackson was seen as a versatile prospect. He put up 16.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while establishing a reputation as a hard-nosed defender. But he did not come without his share of baggage. The 6-foot-8 forward was suspended by Kansas head coach Bill Self for “duty upon striking an unattended vehicle, inattentive driving and improper backing” on campus in 2017. He was also charged with criminal property damage in 2016.

The Suns have a poor draft history in recent years, botching multiple selections (see: Dragon Bender). This seems to be a top-down, organizational issue, described in this 2019 ESPN article.

Jackson’s critics have been vindicated since draft night, three years ago. The youngster has been arrested at least twice since that occasion – once for felony escape and resisting arrest and another for allowing his child to become intoxicated. He’s also been fined $35,000 by the NBA for making a “menacing gesture” and again by the Suns for missing an autograph appearance.

Despite posting decent stats –13.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals and .5 blocks per game as a rookie – Jackson was dealt to Memphis as part of a deal that returned Kyle Korver and Jevon Carter. Phoenix was clearly just fed up with Jackson’s behavior.

He’s since turned his career around to some degree, staying out of trouble and establishing himself as an effective weapon in the G-League – so much so, that he was recalled to the Grizzlies on January 29 for the final 18 games played in 2019-20.

Still, Jackson’s among the most disappointing fourth picks in recent memory – mostly because his issue has been more about maturity than talent.

Middle Of The Road

Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic – 2012

Aaron Gordon is a strange case. He was definitely viewed as the best remaining player at No. 4. And he’s mostly lived up to the billing. He’s arguably the best player taken in the entire draft not named Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic – and, of course, the latter was drafted in the second and wasn’t getting serious first-round consideration.

If he had he taken another step forward in 2019-20, Gordon may have made the hits list. Instead, his output took a hit as his scoring average dropped to 14.4 points per game, with his three-point and overall field goal percentages falling along with it.

But he’s still viewed positively around the league as both a versatile defender and a unique offensive talent who can bang down low and help initiate the offense. He’s probably due for a change of scenery, but he’s still viewed as a unique talent with untapped upside.

De’Andre Hunter – Atlanta Hawks – 2019

Hunter is the most recent fourth overall pick, so it’s tough to impart too much judgment. He came in with relatively high expectations, with the Hawks sending the eighth, 17th and 35th overall picks to the Pelicans (via the Lakers) for the rights to Hunter. All of those picks turned into Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Didi Louzada (did not play in NBA in 2019-20).

While Hunter’s 3-and-D skill set was badly needed by Atlanta, this writer can’t help but think that he might have been better served to land on a team with fewer wings. He’ll never maximize his potential in Atlanta splitting time with Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter.

But he didn’t even get to finish his rookie year due to a now-shortened NBA season. In 63 games, he averaged a respectable12.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists, posting a below-average PER (8.6). Hunter’s biggest let down was probably his three-ball; he shot 41.9 percent on 2.8 attempts during his sophomore season at Virginia, compared to the 35.5 percent on 2.7 attempts with the Hawks.

Hunter’s story is still mostly unwritten. He seems to have the right attitude and skillset to succeed – but he’ll probably struggle to gain any real traction in the near future. It’s unlikely that he’ll go down as a miss, but his path to a hit is a tough one, too.

The Role Players

Wesley Johnson – Minnesota Timberwolves – 2010

Johnson is best known for getting crossed out of his shoes by James Harden. But he was selected over DeMarcus Cousins, Gordon Hayward and Paul George. He was also taken ahead of Eric Bledsoe, Al-Farouq Aminu and Avery Bradley. A recent Bleacher Report article that re-drafted the 2010 NBA Draft slotted Johnson at No. 19 overall.

Prior to leaving the NBA for the EuroLeague in 2019, Johnson was good for 7.0 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He never broached the 30 minute per game mark across an entire season, and he never cemented himself as a full-time starter. Calling Johnson a role player might seem a tad generous, but he played a consistent role for four of his six teams – which can’t be said for all of the guys on this list.

Tristan Thompson – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2011

Thompson is the hardest fourth pick to classify. By some measures, he’s a hit – e.g., he averaged a double-double in each of the last two seasons. By others, he’s… less of one as he failed to break double-digit points per game in five of his nine NBA seasons, four of which were played alongside LeBron James.

Ultimately, he’s probably an upper-echelon role player. He’s been around for long enough to know what you’ll get from him. He’ll work his butt off rebounding the ball and defending. But he’s not a versatile enough defender to stay with faster stretch-fours (e.g., Jayson Tatum), and his shooting – while adequate – leaves something to be desired.

What makes this pick truly hard to classify is the fact that the Cavaliers passed on Klay Thomson, Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard to select Thompson – but he was also an integral part of the franchise’s first NBA championship.

Maybe he belongs in multiple categories.

Cody Zeller – Charlotte Hornets – 2013

No one saw Zeller as a franchise-saver. Still, he probably could’ve been more successful had he been drafted into a better-run organization. Instead, he was selected by Charlotte, who really only had a young Kemba Walker to build around. They needed a savior. Instead, they got a role player.

Zeller was – and remains – an athletic big man who can run the floor extremely well. He registered career highs in point (11.1) and rebounds (7.1) in 2019-20 – so it’s great that he’s still getting better. But after seven seasons in the league, we probably can’t expect much more. Further, the 2013 NBA Draft saw the Hornets pass on CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dennis Schroder – so it’d be really hard to pass Zeller off as a hit. But he is still playing for Charlotte, so at least there’s that.

To say that the NBA Draft is an inexact science is a huge understatement. Some franchise cornerstones never pan out, while unknown prospects become stars. The fourth pick clearly presents its own unique challenges, mixing pressure with fewer prospects. Ultimately, teams understand the risks associated with picking so high. But there is still no way of guaranteeing a successful pick – it’s what makes the NBA Draft the event that it is.

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The X-Factors: Portland

Spencer Davies continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by looking at potential game-changers for the Portland Trail Blazers when the NBA returns.

Spencer Davies

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Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

That’s probably an appropriate way to characterize the steam that’s been picking up over the last week regarding the eventual return of the NBA. What the plan exactly will be is yet to be determined, but there are potential scenarios surfacing left and right. And with the NHL officially having a resumption blueprint set in stone, we’re probably not too far away from learning The Association’s fate.

In an effort to prepare ourselves for that day, Basketball Insiders has begun an x-factor series for each team around the current playoff picture. Basically, “if this happens…” or “what if this player is healthy?” type of scenarios are what we’re looking at. Ben Nadeau kicked us off Tuesday with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, we’re going to look at the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a similar situation out in the Western Conference.

Scratching and clawing for that final seed to make the postseason for the seventh straight season, the Blazers have work to do at 29-37. They’re going to need help in the standings race with several other squads surrounding them chasing after the same thing. Along with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, Portland is 3.5 games back of the West’s eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Even the San Antonio Spurs are hanging by a thread with their playoff streak in jeopardy with a four-game hole in the standings.

We can technically call this our first dependent situation. There is going to be a ton of schedule watching around these five teams. It’s all contingent on the NBA’s decision about how to go about a return — a 72-game benchmark, a play-in tournament, straight to the postseason, etc. Who’s going to have an easier schedule? Who’s going to have more games to play and increase their chances?

For example, the Blazers could have six games left to play to make up that gap on the Grizzlies, a team that was next up on their list in a pivotal head-to-head scenario. The Spurs, however, would have nine games to try and right the ship — by far the highest amount of contests in comparison to the four others they’re fighting against. None of this is concrete because we don’t know what solution the league is going to agree upon; that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t come to mind as a hypothetical.

Then, there’s that Damian Lillard guy. You know, the dude that is Portland’s franchise. The man that went on a mid-January to early February eight-game run where he absurdly averaged over 45 points, 9.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds, while nailing 53 percent of both his field goals and three-balls. He averaged 40 minutes in this stretch, quite literally putting the team on his back to keep pace with the surging Grizzlies.

Lillard’s publicly come out and said flat-out that if the league elects to go with the benchmark idea, he wouldn’t participate. He’d gladly support his teammates and join them, just not on the court for games. Speaking with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, the All-Star point guard expressed his desire for a tournament-style setup where there are playoff implications on the line. Suiting up to satisfy certain criteria with no incentive isn’t his preferred method of return. He wants to compete and, considering the effect of rustiness and other unknowns that could play a factor in these hypothetical matchups, Lillard would love for Portland to be the group that knocks others out unexpectedly.

Let’s not forget that the Blazers could have two starting-caliber players back that would’ve made their return from injury at some point this past March, either. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins have their own specific capabilities that can dramatically improve what the team’s been missing since the beginning of the year.

Nurkic is an outstanding interior presence that brings physicality and finishing ability, as well as a big body to secure rebounds and dare opponents to come into the paint. This is no knock on Hassan Whiteside, who has arguably had the best season of his career as a blocking and boarding machine. It’s more about the lack of depth behind him, which is where Nurkic can step right in without Portland losing its reliability at the five. It’s been a revolving door at backup center for the Blazers, which has allowed the opposition to attack at will and get easy buckets. Nurkic’s return will shut that right off, as well as give the second unit a reliable scoring option.

Collins, his frontcourt partner, was supposed to have a breakout campaign in store for the league. Instead, the athletic third-year big man suffered a dislocated left shoulder just three games into the season. While it has sidelined him since then, he was targeting March as a return target. Obviously, with the league suspending operations, that didn’t happen as planned. But with the calendar turning to June in less than a week, and with his optimism shining through his rehab, it’s probably OK to assume Collins is close to being in the clear for a comeback.

Collins brings things to the table that neither Nurkic nor Whiteside does — an ability to stretch the floor being the most obvious skill that stands out. He can knock down triples at a decent rate and, more importantly, create space for Lillard and CJ McCollum to operate. The 6-foot-11 power forward has quicker foot speed than the other bigs Portland has, too.

Though the Blazers should be plenty excited about Nurkic and Collins’ impending return, they also have to be realistic about how much those two will play. We already mentioned Collins’ shoulder dislocation, but Nurkic hasn’t been on the floor since Mar. 25 of last year. Terry Stotts and his coaching staff will have to pay close attention to each of their minutes. How that whole situation is handled will be crucial to ensure there’s no long-term damage done for any party.

Just like the rest of their competition, the Blazers will have to also monitor how their older veterans handle ramping things back up again. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are both in their mid-30s and have taken on a heavy minute load. They are starters who average over 30 minutes per game that just abruptly stopped playing for months. It isn’t going to be easy on anybody, but the younger players can probably recover and restart easier than those seasoned vets.

Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons are likely to come out of this hiatus with the most energy out of anybody simply because they’re the youngest guys on the team. We all know how hungry the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum is going to be. It’s exciting to think about.

All we can do now is wait to find out what the next steps are toward a restart.

Luckily for us, that news might not be too far away.

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The X-Factors: New Orleans

Ben Nadeau kicks off a new Basketball Insiders series by examining potential game-changers for when the NBA resumes play.

Ben Nadeau

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Basketball is back, baby.

Well, sorta. OK, actually, not really. But they’re talking about it. Finally.

Beyond that, they’re apparently making true, meaningful progress. And although the NBA is circling through potential scenarios — bubble games, re-seeding, ignoring conferences, etc. — there’s a very real chance that this shindig gets underway by mid-July.

To celebrate the re-arrival of actual talk and analysis, Basketball Insiders is kicking off its newest series — this time, one that focuses on a real-life hypothetical. The idea of an x-factor is inherently goofy, typically leading to sentences like: “Well, if Player Z hits 43 percent of his three-pointers, they’ll be tough to beat.” And, yeah, duh.

Given the sport-wide break, there are some perfectly valid questions to be asked. For example, with an extra two months off, where does Victor Oladipo’s health stand? If he’s fully healthy, the Indiana Pacers are going to be a whirlwind of a problem for their higher-seeded first-round matchup. Could the return of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic ensure their postseason place? And, finally, Kevin Durant – a decision that looms large over every other potential proceeding.

But that’s not why we’ve gathered at this particular URL right now – that would be to discuss the New Orleans Pelicans, a franchise that currently finds itself 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Naturally, any chance for success depends on the NBA ratifying a plan that behooves the Pelicans’ hopes. Whether that’s a return to the regular season or a totally-invented play-in series, it doesn’t matter as New Orleans needs some help outside of their own good fortunes.

Should they get the opportunity to control their own fate, there’d be plenty to research and anoint as a Holier Than Thou X-Factor. We could talk about J.J. Redick’s 45.2 percent mark from three-point range or how his 110 postseason games are 28 more than the rest of the roster combined.

Maybe there’d be a paragraph or two on Brandon Ingram’s steady ascent to stardom. Ingram’s post-Los Angeles quest to become a sure-fire No. 1 option has been a compelling narrative, but can he do it when the games matter most? Lonzo Ball, the playmaking point guard, knocked down 21 of his 36 attempts from deep over the final four Pelicans games — if that were a permanent level of consistency for the pass-first general, then that would change everything, too.

And Jrue Holiday, the remaining cornerstone following the departure of Anthony Davis, would get his first chance to anoint himself as a hero in the football-heavy city. Surely, if the Pelicans are to sneak into the altered postseason — and, dare we say it, make some noise — those would be important conditions to quantify.

Still, for all the positives, negatives and worthy storylines out there for New Orleans, not a single one matters as much as Zion Williamson does.

Since the 19-year-old phenom debuted on Jan. 22, the Pelicans went 11-9. It’s not a spectacular showing, but one dragged down by losses to the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers twice. Generally speaking, however, Williamson wasted no time acclimating to the NBA and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56.9 percent shooting.

The highlights include the 35 points he hung on the Lakers and six other occasions of 25 or more in just 19 games. Moreover, Williamson has only scored under 20 points on three occasions and shot worse than 50 percent twice — once 8-for-18 (44) in the other showing versus Los Angeles and a tough 5-for-19 effort (26.3) against the league-leading Bucks. Of course, if they hobbled into the postseason, they’d have to play those very same Lakers over and over again.

Alas, the so-called chosen one will have his fair share of questions when the season resumes. Remember that 4-for-4 explosion against the San Antonio Spurs in his career debut? Well, he’s just 2-for-9 otherwise, often going entire games without even hoisting from long range. Williamson wasn’t supposed to enter professional basketball as a three-point marksman, but that epic – and believe us, we don’t use that word lightly – introduction might have skewed the outlook.

At Duke, Williamson went just 24-for-71 (33.8 percent) from deep and it’ll be a weak link that follows him – just as it does Ben Simmons – for the time being. Free throws weren’t expected to be a major, glaring issue either as he hit on 64 percent in college and, well, he’s right around the same mark currently. If you ignore 1-for-6 and 3-for-8 showings during a couple of double-digit victories versus the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, that number looks even better too.

But enough about the few cons – of which Williamson has certainly made a focus during his quarantine workouts – what’s the ceiling? And how much should we be pulling for a postseason debut here? In a crazy campaign like this, the added bonus of Williamson-made magic might be a thread worth pulling for – even at the rejection of a Ja Morant-led foray instead.

Needless to say, if the resumed regular scenario arrives and the Pelicans have just five or so attempts to make up a 3.5 game deficit in the standings, Williamson probably wouldn’t play at all. It’s also certainly possible that the rookie was just shaking off the rust before — just ask the aforementioned Oladipo. After taking an entire year to recover from a brutal ruptured tendon, the former All-Star only averaged 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 39.1 percent shooting, all would-be career-lows.

Bet your bottom dollar, however, that with an extra 60 days of training at full speed under his belt, Oladipo will be closer to 100 percent than ever – a much-needed boost to an already well-rounded Pacers side. Could a trained-up Williamson provide the same type of edge? Upon his debut, one of the few worries that lingered – aside from re-injury – was about his perceived stamina and fatigue. Getting dropped into high-intensity workouts against adults twice your age is no joke, but try it after three months of rehab following a preseason meniscus tear.

With that context, the fact that Williams averaged 20-plus points on nearly 30 minutes per game is a superhero-level accomplishment.

At 37.2 percent, the Pelicans are the NBA’s fourth-best three-point shooting franchise – so even if Williamson doesn’t come back ready to unleash from deep, his team will be. On top of that, New Orleans’ 116.2 points per game are tied for fourth-best, too. Between Williamson, Holiday, Ball, Ingram and Redick, scoring appears to be the least of their issues headed into a restarted season.

But the defensive rating of 111.6 is a cause for concern, the second-worst standing of any team still within arm’s reach of the postseason (Portland, 113.6). Williamson has posted an encouraging mark of 103.1 on that end through 19 games, which also happens to be the highest mark of anybody employed by New Orleans right now.

In fact, Williamson’s multi-position defense and overall athleticism have already left quite the footprint. Since his debut in January, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating of 109.2 – good enough for the No. 8 spot across the entire league. The Williamson Effect is here to stay and it’ll only improve as the roster meshes and the rookie acclimates even further – that seems to be a foregone conclusion.

If you thought Williamson was impressive coming off a serious injury with no stamina, his elevated play – whether in assumed individual efficiencies or overall team impact – could push the Pelicans into new territory. Elsewhere, there are aspects of New Orleans that deserve attention but none are as postseason-transforming as the second return of Williamson – let us just hope that the NBA provides a stage for the show.

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Looking Back At The Draft: The No. 12 Picks

David Yapkowitz assesses the 12th picks made in recent NBA Drafts and identifies the hits, misses and everything in-between.

David Yapkowitz

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The further you get into the NBA draft, the harder it is to categorize hits and misses. There aren’t many expectations with later draft picks, especially in the second round. If a player ends up panning out, then great. If they don’t, it’s no big financial loss for the team and they can easily cut ties. When you’re still in the lottery, however, you probably expect a little more than just an average player. Superstars are never guaranteed, especially with late lottery selections. But you probably would expect to have a quality rotation player if not probable starter with a late lottery pick.

Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re continuing our look back at the draft, pick by pick, with each of the No. 12 picks going back the last 10 drafts. Let’s see how those picks have panned out.

The Hits

Steven Adams – Oklahoma City Thunder – 2013

The OKC Thunder didn’t have a lottery pick in the 2013 draft, but they acquired it from the Houston Rockets as part of the James Harden trade. With Adams, the Thunder certainly hit the mark. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo (who 13 other teams in addition to the Thunder passed on) and Rudy Gobert are players picked after Adams who have fared better.

Adams has become one of the best defensive players and rebounders in the league as well as a great screen setter and roll man in the pick and roll. He plays his role to perfection and is a starting-caliber center. He may not have hit All-Star status, but he is a legit starter and with a lottery pick, that’s probably what you would expect.

Gerald Henderson – Charlotte Bobcats – 2009

I’m going with a hit on this one. Henderson played nearly all of his eight-year career with the Bobcats with the exception of his final two years with the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers respectively. He was unfortunately forced into early retirement due to nagging injury issues.

But for the eight years he was in the NBA, he was a capable scorer and mostly a starting-caliber wing player. As mentioned, with a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you should expect. Henderson averaged double-digits in scoring for most of his career and he shot in the mid-’40s from the field. If not for injuries, he probably would have played in the NBA for a few more years.

The Misses

Xavier Henry – Memphis Grizzlies – 2010

Going back to the last ten drafts, Henry is the only player picked No. 12 that I would consider to be a miss thus far. He had some hype coming out of Kansas and was expected to be a first-round pick and NBA contributor. He didn’t play much as a rookie with the Grizzlies and was traded to the New Orleans Hornets.

He showed some brief flashes with the Hornets but never really was able to sustain any sort of consistent success. He got hurt during his stint with the Los Angeles Lakers and that pretty much ended his NBA career after five years. He’s had a couple of G League appearances since then but didn’t really show that he was ready for an NBA return.

The Middle of the Road

Taurean Prince – Atlanta Hawks – 2016

Again, for a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you expect your selection to develop into. Prince is here under the middle of the road rather than hits because it’s still too early in his career to determine if he is truly a full-time starter.

With the Hawks, he certainly looked the part. After a so-so rookie year, he stepped up in a big way, becoming a scorer and deadly three-point shooter with solid defensive capabilities. When he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he was considered to be a big pick up. This season, although he started in 61 of the 64 games he suited up in Brooklyn, his shooting suffered and he wasn’t as effective as he had been in Atlanta. There is still time for him to be considered a hit though.

Jeremy Lamb – Houston Rockets – 2012

Lamb is another player who had some high expectations coming out of college but got off to a rocky start in the NBA. He showed some flashes in Oklahoma City but was wildly inconsistent. But like many players, a change of scenery seemed to be all he needed.
He broke out when he arrived in Charlotte, becoming a solid bench scoring threat and becoming more of a regular in the starting lineup as the years went on.

He rightfully earned himself a solid payday from the Indiana Pacers and he started 42 of the 46 games he played in. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a season-ending injury in February. The Pacers are hoping he can bounce back from that.

Luke Kennard – Detroit Pistons – 2017

Another player that is still a little early to categorize. For now, he appears to be a middle of the ground type player. This is only his third year in the NBA, and he’s shown improvement each year. This season was a breakout year for him.

Since coming to the league, he’s been a very good three-point shooter. This season he was knocking down 39.9 percent of his attempts. His scoring has gone up every season and this year he had broken through to double-digits. He has some injury concerns, and he was actually out when the NBA suspended the season. But if he can bounce back healthy, then he certainly looks like a solid pick at No. 12.

The Role Players

Trey Lyles – Utah Jazz – 2015

In a league where the game is changing and traditional big men aren’t as common as they used to be, Lyles fits right in. Lyles seemingly was another case of a player who needed a change of scenery to find his niche. He wasn’t able to stick in either Utah or Denver, and it wasn’t until this season, his first in San Antonio, that he looked like a capable role player.

Lyles became a regular starter for the Spurs, and again, that’s what you want from a lottery pick. He isn’t included in the hits yet because this is the first season out of his five that he’s shown this. He doesn’t have a big enough sample size. He shot a career-best 38.7 percent from three and if he keeps this up, he’ll be a good pick albeit a late bloomer.

Alec Burks – Utah Jazz – 2011

Burks once looked like he was going to become more than just a solid NBA player. He might have had borderline All-Star potential. At least a starting-caliber shooting guard. But unfortunately for him, his career was seemingly derailed by early injuries.

He has since bounced back though. He’s reinvented himself as a scoring threat off the bench. He put up a career-high 16.1 points per game with the Golden State Warriors in the first half of the season. On a playoff team though, he’s a second unit player and that’s exactly what the 76ers were hoping for when they traded for him. He only had 11 games in Philly before the season was halted, but he’s done well to change his game and be effective despite major injuries.

Too Early to Tell

Dario Saric – Orlando Magic – 2014

I’m introducing a new category here, the too early to tell group. These players either don’t have a big enough sample size, or they have had circumstances that may have hindered their abilities. Saric falls into the latter part of that. He’s been a solid starting stretch-four when he’s gotten consistent playing time. But he struggled to adapt to being thrown around in different roles and inconsistent minutes with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns. He’s a pending restricted free agent who might not figure to be in the Suns future plans. Quite a few teams should consider throwing an offer his way.

Miles Bridges – Charlotte Bobcats – 2018

It’s a bit too early to make any major assessments on Bridges. This is only his second year in the NBA, a season that has been cut short. He mostly came off the bench as a rookie and had a pretty solid year with some aspects he could certainly improve upon. He looked much improved this season albeit some areas he could still work on.

He became a regular starting small forward for the Bobcats this season. He upped his scoring and rebounding and he’s often asked to guard multiple positions. He’s young and has a lot of room to improve. I don’t quite feel comfortable yet placing him in one of the above categories so that’s why he’s too early to tell. The future does look good for him though.

The later you go in the draft, the fewer expectations you put on the player you drafted. Franchise level players are not common, there are only a handful in the league. But at least with first-rounders, and especially a lottery pick, you’d expect to get at least a quality rotation player.
Judging by the production of the all the No. 12 picks for the past ten years, it’s safe to say that they all have, or look like they will pan out in some capacity. Only one of them is a sure-fire miss.

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