There is hope on the horizon: as more and more teams continue to re-open their facilities, the NBA would seem that much closer to a return.
That said, there is still a very long road ahead. And, in the meantime, Basketball Insiders has done our best to help mitigate the monotony of quarantine. Recently, we’ve taken a look at the last decade of the NBA draft, breaking down each player pick by pick.
If you haven’t already, make sure to check out our analysis of the first, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth overall picks. Today, we’ll be looking at the players taken with the seventh selection. So, without further ado, let’s get into it.
Stephen Curry — Golden State Warriors — 2009
In the last 10 seasons, Curry, by far, is the best player to occupy the seventh draft slot. Arguably, he’s the best player to ever do so.
For a down-and-out franchise like the Warriors, Curry’s drop in 2009 was a franchise-altering stroke of luck. The Minnesota Timberwolves even doubled-dipped at the point guard position ahead of them, selecting Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn, yet the sharpshooter out of Davidson, the future two-time Most Valuable Player and three-time champion, fell into their lap.
Would Curry have led the Timberwolves to their first Larry O’Brien trophy? It’s hard to say. What isn’t hard to say is the major impact Curry has had on the NBA would transcend almost any alternate reality where Minnesota, or any other team for the matter, draft him ahead of Golden State.
If the first unanimous MVP in league history doesn’t convince you of that fact, his career stats might: 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.7 steals and an NBA record (among players with at least 2000 attempts) 43.5 percent three-point percentage.
You get it.
Harrison Barnes — Golden State Warriors — 2012
Barnes may not live up to his pick-mate, but he’s a solid pick in his own right.
As the Warriors third option to Curry and Klay Thompson, Barnes’ early numbers don’t impress. But the Warriors didn’t need him to do much, either — he may have been more a role player than bonafide “hit” for Golden State, but Barnes filled his role to the best of his ability and was a strong contributor on a championship roster.
And, with a move away from California, Barnes’ production took a major leap. In the four seasons post-Golden State, Barnes has averaged 17.4 points, on a 44.8 percent field goal percentage and a solid 37.4 percent from three, to go along with five rebounds per game.
Barnes averaged 14.2 shots per game, compared to the meager 8.5 he managed in his four seasons with the Warriors, and, while he may not carry an offense alone, he’d be a strong option on almost any squad.
If that’s not a hit, then I don’t know what is.
Jamal Murray — Denver Nuggets — 2016
The 2016 NBA Draft was often described as a “two-player” draft. Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were the superstars — beyond that, who cared?
Murray, as Jaylen Brown (No. 3) and Buddy Hield (No. 6) have, has seemingly proven everyone wrong just four seasons into his career.
After a promising rookie season, Murray took his game to a new level and hasn’t looked back. His scoring has improved year after year, while his percentages are strong and his penchant for success in the clutch would seem to be undeniable.
Alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray has pushed Denver into the Western Conference’s elite: Before the shutdown, Murray’s fourth season, the electric guard had averaged 18.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists per game with the Nuggets once again in position to claim one of the Western Conference’s top seeds.
As Denver’s success persists, Murray’s star should only shine brighter. He’s already flashed, but don’t be shocked if Murray, even in a packed Western Conference, plays his name into the All-Star conversation in the near future.
Ben McLemore — Sacramento Kings — 2013
It’s safe to say that any top-10 pick that’s had the career McLemore has should be categorized as a miss. He may not be a bust yet — he’s certainly redeemable, to a point, anyway — but McLemore just hasn’t lived up to his billing at this point in his career.
In seven seasons, McLemore has averaged nine points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. A career 42.1 percent shooter, he’s struggled with his shot and, more importantly, his confidence.
After four seasons in Sacramento, McLemore managed just one season with the Memphis Grizzlies, a year in which he bounced between the NBA and G League, before he was traded back to Sacramento and, later, waived.
Here’s something a bit more positive, however: Before the season had cut short, McLemore had seemingly found his footing with the Houston Rockets.
With Gerald Green and Eric Gordon injured, McLemore earned some playtime. And, alongside James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the game seemed to have been simplified for him: in 63 games, McLemore played some of his best basketball as he averaged 9.8 points, shot 39.5 percent on 6.2 three-point attempts per game and played some strong defense.
As the seventh selection, it’s not the star he was made out to be. But it’s promising nonetheless. And, while McLemore isn’t there yet, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him play his way into the role player category in the near future.
Emmanuel Mudiay — Denver Nuggets — 2015
Mudiay, rather than joining the NCAA ranks, chose to play in China after graduating high school. His success there — 17.7 points, six rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.6 steals — saw his hype explode in the lead up to the 2015 NBA Draft.
But, in hindsight, it really shouldn’t have.
There was a lot to like about Mudiay as a prospect. At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, he certainly has the size and the athletic profile necessary to succeed in the NBA. But, unfortunately for the Nuggets, that’s about as good as it got.
From the jump, Mudiay struggled. And, while there were some games he would flash, those were few and far between. While his 12.8 points and 5.5 assists per game looked strong, the 36.4 field goal percentage and suspect defense that accompanied them did not.
Handed the starting job as a rookie, Mudiay would cede the role to Jameer Nelson in his second season. Later, on Denver’s guard-rich roster, he eventually lost the backup job, too. In his third year, the Nuggets traded Mudiay to the New York Knicks, where he was once again given the starter role and averaged 11.8 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 82 games spread across two seasons. Now, in a reserve role with the Utah Jazz, he’s managed 7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists.
His game has certainly improved since his time in Denver. Most notably, his field goal percentage had jumped to 47.1 percent before the league’s shutdown, albeit on only six shots per game. Still, Mudiay hasn’t lived up to his draft slot and, at this point, it’s hard to imagine he ever will.
The Middle of the Road
Julius Randle — Los Angeles Lakers — 2014
Early on, Randle looked destined to serve as a role player. But, in recent seasons, he’s shown to be capable of far more.
Of course, as with most lottery prospects, there was the occasional flash. But, with the Lakers, Randle didn’t “wow” anybody on a consistent basis. The 13.5 points and 8.9 rebounds he averaged in his first four seasons didn’t exactly scream superstar, either.
Then, Randle made his way to the New Orleans Pelicans, and everything just seemed to click.
It’s just a two-season sample, but Randle has played near (if not at) an All-Star level in his post-Lakers career. In his lone season with the Pelicans, Randle blew up as he averaged 21.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists and shot 52.4 percent from the field. He was one of only seven that season to average at least 21 points and 8 rebounds while playing in at least 60 games.
The other six? Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Karl Anthony-Towns, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joel Embiid and Russell Westbrook.
Randle’s surge had continued into the 2019-20 regular season with the New York Knicks. Before the NBA’s hiatus, the forward managed an impressive 19.5 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists, and did so in arguably the most dysfunctional environment in the NBA, an achievement in and of itself.
After only two seasons of high-level play, it’s hard to justify Randle as a surefire “hit.” That said, he’s close, and that could change very quickly if he can continue to build on the progress he’s made in the last two seasons.
Lauri Markkanen — Chicago Bulls — 2017
Markkanen’s career trajectory would appear to be at a crossroads. And it’s not looking good.
The forward out of Arizona shined as a rookie, serving as Chicago fans’ light in the post-Jimmy Butler darkness. He averaged 15.2 points and 7.5 rebounds across 68 games. As a sophomore, Markkanen raised the bar despite the fact that he was limited due to injury — he averaged 18.7 and nine per game, respectively, in 52 contests.
No doubt, he had the look of a rising star.
But, in his third season, Markkanen has faced some significant regression. His output has either stagnated or worsened across the board — including career low scoring (14.7), rebounding (6.5) field goal (42.5) and three-point percentage (34.4) averages — and, having played 50 games, it’s unlikely he’ll see a marked improvement should the season resume.
Going forward, a change of scenery may do him some good. If not, or if he can’t get right some other way, Markkanen might slide further and further away from that “hit” moniker and toward that of a role player (or worse), an idea that would have been laughed at after such a promising start to his career.
Wendell Carter Jr. — Chicago Bulls — 2018
For Carter Jr., it’s just too early to call.
He’s certainly shown promise. In 84 games across his first two seasons, Carter has looked the part as he’s averaged 10.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, shot 50.8 percent from the floor while consistently playing hard on the defensive end.
But it’s that number: 84. With so few games played, it’s hard to say one way or the other what Carter’s future could look like. Could this be his best? Unlikely. But is it a possibility? Certainly. We just don’t know.
As he gets more games under his belt, that future should come further into focus. He certainly has the tools to put it together, it’s just a matter of whether or not Carter can effectively make use of them.
Coby White — Chicago Bulls — 2019
Yes, another Bull.
Like Carter, there just isn’t enough to go on to make a solid declaration on White. Yes, the talent would seem to be there — White averaged 13.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists in 65 games — but the North Carolina product struggled in a number of categories, namely field goal percentage (39.4 percent).
He certainly has the potential to blossom. But the NBA has seen far too many promising rookie seasons followed up by sub-par careers. For White, at this point, it’s just a wait-and-see.
The Role Players
Greg Monroe — Detroit Pistons — 2010
Over the course of his career, Monroe was atrocious on defense. But, and despite the fact that he’s not currently under contract, his offensive game has saved him from “miss” status.
Monroe made an instant impact as a rookie, as he posted 9.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Over the next four seasons, Monroe averaged a strong 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game on 49.9 percent shooting. It was more of the same in the first of a three-year, $50 million deal he signed with the Milwaukee Bucks: 15.3 points and 8.8 rebounds on 52.2 percent from the field.
But, after that? It’s not pretty.
It’d be hard for any team to keep a center that doesn’t block many shots on the floor for extended stretches. Monroe, being such a center (with a career average of .6 blocks per game), saw a dip in minutes, from 29.3 to 22.5 per game. His scoring and rebounding averages, 11.7 and 6.6, respectively, suffered.
In the final year of his deal, Milwaukee traded Monroe to the Phoenix Suns, who later released him.
Despite that ugly turn, Monroe proved a desired commodity as a potential offensive sparkplug off the bench. He finished the 2018-19 season with the Boston Celtics before splitting last season between the Toronto Raptors, Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.
Bismack Biyombo — Charlotte Bobcats — 2011
Were it not for his defensive acumen, Biyombo would have certainly gone down as a miss.
The 6-foot-8 center, over the course of his career, has brought almost nothing on offense. For his career, the center has managed a, to say the least, underwhelming 5.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. The 52.1 percent two-point field goal percentage he’s sported over nine seasons is 67th in the NBA in that span — not great when the majority of your shots come within three feet of the basket.
And yet, in one season with the Toronto Raptors, Biyombo parlayed his biggest strength, his defense, into a four-year, $72 million deal with the Orlando Magic in 2016.
The merit of that deal could certainly be argued, but that’s neither here nor there. In reality, Biyombo earned that deal as a defensive specialist and, despite inconsistent minutes, has continued to play much of the same role since.
The draft, ultimately, is a crapshoot. You can only analyze so much tape, run so many workouts before giving way to blind luck. That said, over the last 10 seasons, the NBA, collectively, has made great use of the seventh selection. Who could be the pick’s next success story?
Again, if you haven’t already, make sure to check out our analysis of the first six picks. And stay tuned for the rest of our draft lookback series.
The X-Factors: Portland
Spencer Davies continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by looking at potential game-changers for the Portland Trail Blazers when the NBA returns.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
That’s probably an appropriate way to characterize the steam that’s been picking up over the last week regarding the eventual return of the NBA. What the plan exactly will be is yet to be determined, but there are potential scenarios surfacing left and right. And with the NHL officially having a resumption blueprint set in stone, we’re probably not too far away from learning The Association’s fate.
In an effort to prepare ourselves for that day, Basketball Insiders has begun an x-factor series for each team around the current playoff picture. Basically, “if this happens…” or “what if this player is healthy?” type of scenarios are what we’re looking at. Ben Nadeau kicked us off Tuesday with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, we’re going to look at the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a similar situation out in the Western Conference.
Scratching and clawing for that final seed to make the postseason for the seventh straight season, the Blazers have work to do at 29-37. They’re going to need help in the standings race with several other squads surrounding them chasing after the same thing. Along with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, Portland is 3.5 games back of the West’s eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Even the San Antonio Spurs are hanging by a thread with their playoff streak in jeopardy with a four-game hole in the standings.
We can technically call this our first dependent situation. There is going to be a ton of schedule watching around these five teams. It’s all contingent on the NBA’s decision about how to go about a return — a 72-game benchmark, a play-in tournament, straight to the postseason, etc. Who’s going to have an easier schedule? Who’s going to have more games to play and increase their chances?
For example, the Blazers could have six games left to play to make up that gap on the Grizzlies, a team that was next up on their list in a pivotal head-to-head scenario. The Spurs, however, would have nine games to try and right the ship — by far the highest amount of contests in comparison to the four others they’re fighting against. None of this is concrete because we don’t know what solution the league is going to agree upon; that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t come to mind as a hypothetical.
Then, there’s that Damian Lillard guy. You know, the dude that is Portland’s franchise. The man that went on a mid-January to early February eight-game run where he absurdly averaged over 45 points, 9.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds, while nailing 53 percent of both his field goals and three-balls. He averaged 40 minutes in this stretch, quite literally putting the team on his back to keep pace with the surging Grizzlies.
Lillard’s publicly come out and said flat-out that if the league elects to go with the benchmark idea, he wouldn’t participate. He’d gladly support his teammates and join them, just not on the court for games. Speaking with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, the All-Star point guard expressed his desire for a tournament-style setup where there are playoff implications on the line. Suiting up to satisfy certain criteria with no incentive isn’t his preferred method of return. He wants to compete and, considering the effect of rustiness and other unknowns that could play a factor in these hypothetical matchups, Lillard would love for Portland to be the group that knocks others out unexpectedly.
Let’s not forget that the Blazers could have two starting-caliber players back that would’ve made their return from injury at some point this past March, either. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins have their own specific capabilities that can dramatically improve what the team’s been missing since the beginning of the year.
Nurkic is an outstanding interior presence that brings physicality and finishing ability, as well as a big body to secure rebounds and dare opponents to come into the paint. This is no knock on Hassan Whiteside, who has arguably had the best season of his career as a blocking and boarding machine. It’s more about the lack of depth behind him, which is where Nurkic can step right in without Portland losing its reliability at the five. It’s been a revolving door at backup center for the Blazers, which has allowed the opposition to attack at will and get easy buckets. Nurkic’s return will shut that right off, as well as give the second unit a reliable scoring option.
Collins, his frontcourt partner, was supposed to have a breakout campaign in store for the league. Instead, the athletic third-year big man suffered a dislocated left shoulder just three games into the season. While it has sidelined him since then, he was targeting March as a return target. Obviously, with the league suspending operations, that didn’t happen as planned. But with the calendar turning to June in less than a week, and with his optimism shining through his rehab, it’s probably OK to assume Collins is close to being in the clear for a comeback.
Collins brings things to the table that neither Nurkic nor Whiteside does — an ability to stretch the floor being the most obvious skill that stands out. He can knock down triples at a decent rate and, more importantly, create space for Lillard and CJ McCollum to operate. The 6-foot-11 power forward has quicker foot speed than the other bigs Portland has, too.
Though the Blazers should be plenty excited about Nurkic and Collins’ impending return, they also have to be realistic about how much those two will play. We already mentioned Collins’ shoulder dislocation, but Nurkic hasn’t been on the floor since Mar. 25 of last year. Terry Stotts and his coaching staff will have to pay close attention to each of their minutes. How that whole situation is handled will be crucial to ensure there’s no long-term damage done for any party.
Just like the rest of their competition, the Blazers will have to also monitor how their older veterans handle ramping things back up again. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are both in their mid-30s and have taken on a heavy minute load. They are starters who average over 30 minutes per game that just abruptly stopped playing for months. It isn’t going to be easy on anybody, but the younger players can probably recover and restart easier than those seasoned vets.
Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons are likely to come out of this hiatus with the most energy out of anybody simply because they’re the youngest guys on the team. We all know how hungry the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum is going to be. It’s exciting to think about.
All we can do now is wait to find out what the next steps are toward a restart.
Luckily for us, that news might not be too far away.
The X-Factors: New Orleans
Ben Nadeau kicks off a new Basketball Insiders series by examining potential game-changers for when the NBA resumes play.
Basketball is back, baby.
Well, sorta. OK, actually, not really. But they’re talking about it. Finally.
Beyond that, they’re apparently making true, meaningful progress. And although the NBA is circling through potential scenarios — bubble games, re-seeding, ignoring conferences, etc. — there’s a very real chance that this shindig gets underway by mid-July.
To celebrate the re-arrival of actual talk and analysis, Basketball Insiders is kicking off its newest series — this time, one that focuses on a real-life hypothetical. The idea of an x-factor is inherently goofy, typically leading to sentences like: “Well, if Player Z hits 43 percent of his three-pointers, they’ll be tough to beat.” And, yeah, duh.
Given the sport-wide break, there are some perfectly valid questions to be asked. For example, with an extra two months off, where does Victor Oladipo’s health stand? If he’s fully healthy, the Indiana Pacers are going to be a whirlwind of a problem for their higher-seeded first-round matchup. Could the return of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic ensure their postseason place? And, finally, Kevin Durant – a decision that looms large over every other potential proceeding.
But that’s not why we’ve gathered at this particular URL right now – that would be to discuss the New Orleans Pelicans, a franchise that currently finds itself 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Naturally, any chance for success depends on the NBA ratifying a plan that behooves the Pelicans’ hopes. Whether that’s a return to the regular season or a totally-invented play-in series, it doesn’t matter as New Orleans needs some help outside of their own good fortunes.
Should they get the opportunity to control their own fate, there’d be plenty to research and anoint as a Holier Than Thou X-Factor. We could talk about J.J. Redick’s 45.2 percent mark from three-point range or how his 110 postseason games are 28 more than the rest of the roster combined.
Maybe there’d be a paragraph or two on Brandon Ingram’s steady ascent to stardom. Ingram’s post-Los Angeles quest to become a sure-fire No. 1 option has been a compelling narrative, but can he do it when the games matter most? Lonzo Ball, the playmaking point guard, knocked down 21 of his 36 attempts from deep over the final four Pelicans games — if that were a permanent level of consistency for the pass-first general, then that would change everything, too.
And Jrue Holiday, the remaining cornerstone following the departure of Anthony Davis, would get his first chance to anoint himself as a hero in the football-heavy city. Surely, if the Pelicans are to sneak into the altered postseason — and, dare we say it, make some noise — those would be important conditions to quantify.
Still, for all the positives, negatives and worthy storylines out there for New Orleans, not a single one matters as much as Zion Williamson does.
Since the 19-year-old phenom debuted on Jan. 22, the Pelicans went 11-9. It’s not a spectacular showing, but one dragged down by losses to the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers twice. Generally speaking, however, Williamson wasted no time acclimating to the NBA and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56.9 percent shooting.
The highlights include the 35 points he hung on the Lakers and six other occasions of 25 or more in just 19 games. Moreover, Williamson has only scored under 20 points on three occasions and shot worse than 50 percent twice — once 8-for-18 (44) in the other showing versus Los Angeles and a tough 5-for-19 effort (26.3) against the league-leading Bucks. Of course, if they hobbled into the postseason, they’d have to play those very same Lakers over and over again.
Alas, the so-called chosen one will have his fair share of questions when the season resumes. Remember that 4-for-4 explosion against the San Antonio Spurs in his career debut? Well, he’s just 2-for-9 otherwise, often going entire games without even hoisting from long range. Williamson wasn’t supposed to enter professional basketball as a three-point marksman, but that epic – and believe us, we don’t use that word lightly – introduction might have skewed the outlook.
At Duke, Williamson went just 24-for-71 (33.8 percent) from deep and it’ll be a weak link that follows him – just as it does Ben Simmons – for the time being. Free throws weren’t expected to be a major, glaring issue either as he hit on 64 percent in college and, well, he’s right around the same mark currently. If you ignore 1-for-6 and 3-for-8 showings during a couple of double-digit victories versus the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, that number looks even better too.
But enough about the few cons – of which Williamson has certainly made a focus during his quarantine workouts – what’s the ceiling? And how much should we be pulling for a postseason debut here? In a crazy campaign like this, the added bonus of Williamson-made magic might be a thread worth pulling for – even at the rejection of a Ja Morant-led foray instead.
Needless to say, if the resumed regular scenario arrives and the Pelicans have just five or so attempts to make up a 3.5 game deficit in the standings, Williamson probably wouldn’t play at all. It’s also certainly possible that the rookie was just shaking off the rust before — just ask the aforementioned Oladipo. After taking an entire year to recover from a brutal ruptured tendon, the former All-Star only averaged 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 39.1 percent shooting, all would-be career-lows.
Bet your bottom dollar, however, that with an extra 60 days of training at full speed under his belt, Oladipo will be closer to 100 percent than ever – a much-needed boost to an already well-rounded Pacers side. Could a trained-up Williamson provide the same type of edge? Upon his debut, one of the few worries that lingered – aside from re-injury – was about his perceived stamina and fatigue. Getting dropped into high-intensity workouts against adults twice your age is no joke, but try it after three months of rehab following a preseason meniscus tear.
With that context, the fact that Williams averaged 20-plus points on nearly 30 minutes per game is a superhero-level accomplishment.
At 37.2 percent, the Pelicans are the NBA’s fourth-best three-point shooting franchise – so even if Williamson doesn’t come back ready to unleash from deep, his team will be. On top of that, New Orleans’ 116.2 points per game are tied for fourth-best, too. Between Williamson, Holiday, Ball, Ingram and Redick, scoring appears to be the least of their issues headed into a restarted season.
But the defensive rating of 111.6 is a cause for concern, the second-worst standing of any team still within arm’s reach of the postseason (Portland, 113.6). Williamson has posted an encouraging mark of 103.1 on that end through 19 games, which also happens to be the highest mark of anybody employed by New Orleans right now.
In fact, Williamson’s multi-position defense and overall athleticism have already left quite the footprint. Since his debut in January, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating of 109.2 – good enough for the No. 8 spot across the entire league. The Williamson Effect is here to stay and it’ll only improve as the roster meshes and the rookie acclimates even further – that seems to be a foregone conclusion.
If you thought Williamson was impressive coming off a serious injury with no stamina, his elevated play – whether in assumed individual efficiencies or overall team impact – could push the Pelicans into new territory. Elsewhere, there are aspects of New Orleans that deserve attention but none are as postseason-transforming as the second return of Williamson – let us just hope that the NBA provides a stage for the show.
Looking Back At The Draft: The No. 12 Picks
David Yapkowitz assesses the 12th picks made in recent NBA Drafts and identifies the hits, misses and everything in-between.
The further you get into the NBA draft, the harder it is to categorize hits and misses. There aren’t many expectations with later draft picks, especially in the second round. If a player ends up panning out, then great. If they don’t, it’s no big financial loss for the team and they can easily cut ties. When you’re still in the lottery, however, you probably expect a little more than just an average player. Superstars are never guaranteed, especially with late lottery selections. But you probably would expect to have a quality rotation player if not probable starter with a late lottery pick.
Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re continuing our look back at the draft, pick by pick, with each of the No. 12 picks going back the last 10 drafts. Let’s see how those picks have panned out.
Steven Adams – Oklahoma City Thunder – 2013
The OKC Thunder didn’t have a lottery pick in the 2013 draft, but they acquired it from the Houston Rockets as part of the James Harden trade. With Adams, the Thunder certainly hit the mark. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo (who 13 other teams in addition to the Thunder passed on) and Rudy Gobert are players picked after Adams who have fared better.
Adams has become one of the best defensive players and rebounders in the league as well as a great screen setter and roll man in the pick and roll. He plays his role to perfection and is a starting-caliber center. He may not have hit All-Star status, but he is a legit starter and with a lottery pick, that’s probably what you would expect.
Gerald Henderson – Charlotte Bobcats – 2009
I’m going with a hit on this one. Henderson played nearly all of his eight-year career with the Bobcats with the exception of his final two years with the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers respectively. He was unfortunately forced into early retirement due to nagging injury issues.
But for the eight years he was in the NBA, he was a capable scorer and mostly a starting-caliber wing player. As mentioned, with a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you should expect. Henderson averaged double-digits in scoring for most of his career and he shot in the mid-’40s from the field. If not for injuries, he probably would have played in the NBA for a few more years.
Xavier Henry – Memphis Grizzlies – 2010
Going back to the last ten drafts, Henry is the only player picked No. 12 that I would consider to be a miss thus far. He had some hype coming out of Kansas and was expected to be a first-round pick and NBA contributor. He didn’t play much as a rookie with the Grizzlies and was traded to the New Orleans Hornets.
He showed some brief flashes with the Hornets but never really was able to sustain any sort of consistent success. He got hurt during his stint with the Los Angeles Lakers and that pretty much ended his NBA career after five years. He’s had a couple of G League appearances since then but didn’t really show that he was ready for an NBA return.
The Middle of the Road
Taurean Prince – Atlanta Hawks – 2016
Again, for a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you expect your selection to develop into. Prince is here under the middle of the road rather than hits because it’s still too early in his career to determine if he is truly a full-time starter.
With the Hawks, he certainly looked the part. After a so-so rookie year, he stepped up in a big way, becoming a scorer and deadly three-point shooter with solid defensive capabilities. When he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he was considered to be a big pick up. This season, although he started in 61 of the 64 games he suited up in Brooklyn, his shooting suffered and he wasn’t as effective as he had been in Atlanta. There is still time for him to be considered a hit though.
Jeremy Lamb – Houston Rockets – 2012
Lamb is another player who had some high expectations coming out of college but got off to a rocky start in the NBA. He showed some flashes in Oklahoma City but was wildly inconsistent. But like many players, a change of scenery seemed to be all he needed.
He broke out when he arrived in Charlotte, becoming a solid bench scoring threat and becoming more of a regular in the starting lineup as the years went on.
He rightfully earned himself a solid payday from the Indiana Pacers and he started 42 of the 46 games he played in. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a season-ending injury in February. The Pacers are hoping he can bounce back from that.
Luke Kennard – Detroit Pistons – 2017
Another player that is still a little early to categorize. For now, he appears to be a middle of the ground type player. This is only his third year in the NBA, and he’s shown improvement each year. This season was a breakout year for him.
Since coming to the league, he’s been a very good three-point shooter. This season he was knocking down 39.9 percent of his attempts. His scoring has gone up every season and this year he had broken through to double-digits. He has some injury concerns, and he was actually out when the NBA suspended the season. But if he can bounce back healthy, then he certainly looks like a solid pick at No. 12.
The Role Players
Trey Lyles – Utah Jazz – 2015
In a league where the game is changing and traditional big men aren’t as common as they used to be, Lyles fits right in. Lyles seemingly was another case of a player who needed a change of scenery to find his niche. He wasn’t able to stick in either Utah or Denver, and it wasn’t until this season, his first in San Antonio, that he looked like a capable role player.
Lyles became a regular starter for the Spurs, and again, that’s what you want from a lottery pick. He isn’t included in the hits yet because this is the first season out of his five that he’s shown this. He doesn’t have a big enough sample size. He shot a career-best 38.7 percent from three and if he keeps this up, he’ll be a good pick albeit a late bloomer.
Alec Burks – Utah Jazz – 2011
Burks once looked like he was going to become more than just a solid NBA player. He might have had borderline All-Star potential. At least a starting-caliber shooting guard. But unfortunately for him, his career was seemingly derailed by early injuries.
He has since bounced back though. He’s reinvented himself as a scoring threat off the bench. He put up a career-high 16.1 points per game with the Golden State Warriors in the first half of the season. On a playoff team though, he’s a second unit player and that’s exactly what the 76ers were hoping for when they traded for him. He only had 11 games in Philly before the season was halted, but he’s done well to change his game and be effective despite major injuries.
Too Early to Tell
Dario Saric – Orlando Magic – 2014
I’m introducing a new category here, the too early to tell group. These players either don’t have a big enough sample size, or they have had circumstances that may have hindered their abilities. Saric falls into the latter part of that. He’s been a solid starting stretch-four when he’s gotten consistent playing time. But he struggled to adapt to being thrown around in different roles and inconsistent minutes with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns. He’s a pending restricted free agent who might not figure to be in the Suns future plans. Quite a few teams should consider throwing an offer his way.
Miles Bridges – Charlotte Bobcats – 2018
It’s a bit too early to make any major assessments on Bridges. This is only his second year in the NBA, a season that has been cut short. He mostly came off the bench as a rookie and had a pretty solid year with some aspects he could certainly improve upon. He looked much improved this season albeit some areas he could still work on.
He became a regular starting small forward for the Bobcats this season. He upped his scoring and rebounding and he’s often asked to guard multiple positions. He’s young and has a lot of room to improve. I don’t quite feel comfortable yet placing him in one of the above categories so that’s why he’s too early to tell. The future does look good for him though.
The later you go in the draft, the fewer expectations you put on the player you drafted. Franchise level players are not common, there are only a handful in the league. But at least with first-rounders, and especially a lottery pick, you’d expect to get at least a quality rotation player.
Judging by the production of the all the No. 12 picks for the past ten years, it’s safe to say that they all have, or look like they will pan out in some capacity. Only one of them is a sure-fire miss.