The NBA Draft is a transformative moment for franchises as it provides them with the opportunity to jump-start a lost roster or continue building one on the rise. With the ever-increasing importance of the point guard position – which is as sought after as ever – teams are constantly on the lookout for their next, great floor general. Well, the NBA Draft is the place to find one.
Sadly, it’s not that simple: Most point guards take time to develop and there are already loads of stellar point guards in the league, meaning that rookies face an even tougher time securing a role. Further, early successes are not indicative of longevity or greatness. Just look at Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Dennis Smith Jr. – all of whom were highly touted prospects entering their respective drafts. While none are out of the league, none achieved nearly the levels of success that was expected of them.
But it’s not all bad, either. A number of young point guards have flourished in recent years including Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ja Morant, De’Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – all currently in their first, second or third year in the league. It’s those kinds of success stories that serve as the fuel in the fire that either powers teams to championships or burns them to the ground.
But wait, there more. As though the process wasn’t hard enough, 2020 upped the ante. In-person workouts are disallowed in the NBA Draft process this year, so teams will have significantly less intel to base decisions on than ever before. There will be a virtual combine held in October, but it’s unclear which – if any – of the top prospects will attend.
And while the 2020 NBA Draft’s talent pool is viewed by many as being underwhelming, it is quite deep at the point guard position. With all of that in mind, let’s review the best point guard prospects entering the 2020 NBA Draft.
LaMelo Ball, NBL (Australia) – 19 years old
Ball enters the draft season with the most buzz of all of the boom-or-bust prospects. He has so many positive attributes: he’s an incredibly creative passer, has good size (6-foot-7) and defensive instincts, plus he desires the big stage. His up-and-down style makes him a valuable commodity in the modern game and he’s incredibly comfortable working in the pick-and-roll – a major plus for any player entering the league today. Further, his 7-foot-3 wingspan is a significant positive for any defense he joins.
But Ball has negatives, too – namely, shooting. Ball shot only 25 percent on 1.7 three-point attempts per game, and he – like his brother, Lonzo – has a unique release on his shot, which is predicated on an excessive motion.
Still, Ball looks the part of a star. He’s a playmaker who can wheel-and-deal in transition and see over many opposing guards. He’s already familiar with the spotlight that goes along with being a winning player. Having turned 19 fairly recently, he possesses a significant upside. There’s not too much tape on Ball – but in this draft, he’s the clear first point guard off the board.
Killian Hayes, Germany – 19 years old
Hayes is a 19-year-old stud. He’s a 6-foot-5 point guard who is a gifted passer and an above-average shooter. He also possesses impressive footwork, displaying an array of moves including a step-back jump shot, a polished euro-step and an array of spin moves. He averaged 12.8 points and 6.2 assists in just under 27 minutes per game last season for Ratiopharm Ulm, a German club in the EuroCup.
He’s seen as an underwhelming athlete – but the notion is something that has certainly blown up in the faces of scouts before. Some point to his youth as a way of supporting a case for additional upside in terms of athleticism – but above-average athletes typically stand out, so he’s probably average at best.
Still, Hayes has an It Factor that few point guard prospects possess. He also has a 6-foot-9 wingspan that will give opposing offenses fits. Like many others on this list, he’ll require a leap of faith – but his familiarity with professional basketball could benefit him in his interviews, and his extensive resume might separate him from the pack in terms of reading defenses. Hayes should be gone by the No. 10 overall pick, but who knows.
Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State – 20 years old
While Iowa State is a major program that plays in the Big 12, it’s not necessarily a breeding ground for NBA players. It’s produced only a few dozen NBA players, with Jeff Hornacek as probably its best yet. Still, Haliburton got on our radar earlier this season and continues to make his case to be one of the highest-selected Cyclones ever.
Haliburton is an exceptional shooter, a good facilitator and a capable defender. And most importantly, he translates well to the modern game given his creativity in slipping in pocket passes in the pick-and-roll.
But he has some flaws, too – namely, shooting form. Yes, he posted good numbers (15.2 points, 6.5 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game on 41.9 percent three-point shooting), but his form is seen by scouts as awkward, restricting his ability to shoot off the dribble. What’s more, Haliburton does not project as a player who will get to the rim. He lacks burst and doesn’t manipulate the defense well when in isolation.
Still, Haliburton is a gifted scorer and distributor. It’s actually surprising that the 6-foot-5 playmaker isn’t viewed even more positively. If there were a traditional draft process, this writer imagines that Haliburton’s stock would be on the rise.
Cole Anthony, UNC – 20 years old
Anthony is another high ceiling, low floor prospect. He comes in with a reputation as a three-level scorer with a shot that should translate well to the NBA. Anthony successfully gets to the rim and is a capable defender – albeit an inconsistent one. And while North Carolina suffered its first losing season in years, Anthony led the Tar Heels to a 6-3 start before being sidelined for 11 games due to a knee injury.
On the whole, he averaged 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game, but his efficiency was an issue. Anthony shot 40 percent on two-point attempts and 35 on threes, and he committed 3.5 turnovers per game.
Initially, Anthony was viewed as being injury-prone after suffering his setback, but the recent success of Michael Porter Jr. (back) has quieted the chatter around that. Still, his overall profile has fallen a bit. He’s seen as a lesser distributor than most guys listed above and he’s the smallest with the slightest wingspan, which hurts his defensive projections; but Anthony’s upside could outweigh all of that – and in this draft, that could make the difference between going No. 6 and 16.
Kira Lewis Jr., Alabama – 19 years old
Lewis is very possibly the fastest player in this draft class. He played two seasons at Alabama, where he followed another point guard lottery pick – Collin Sexton.
Lewis exhibited an ability to take over games in college, where his athleticism, ball-handling, ability to get to the rim and create his own shots set him apart. He plays with a tremendous motor and won’t be accused of playing with a lack of desire.
But Lewis must overcome two major hurdles. First, he’s too small. He’s not exactly undersized – Lewis is 6-foot-3, 165 lbs – but he’s certainly not big. Lewis will have to add considerable bulk, but adding size will come with time. And considering that college kids don’t spend nearly as much time and energy on eating right and working out as do their professional counterparts, it’s not a huge issue – and it’s not terribly uncommon, either.
The second challenge that Lewis must overcome is one of perception. As noted above, Lewis played at Alabama, a major program. And while he shined in his Sophomore season (18.5 points, 5.2 assists and 4.8 rebounds, he took scouts by surprise in doing so. He had a significantly less impactful Freshmen season (13.5 points, 2.9 assists and 2.6 rebounds) after entered Alabama as the No. 47th ranked prospect in his high school class, according to ESPN.
While 47th is impressive, it’s not indicative of a future lottery pick– and that’s exactly what Lewis has morphed into. Lewis must impress teams in his individual interviews to set himself apart from his higher-profile competition, but he’s already proven himself to be worthy of this moment.
Tre Jones, Duke – 20 years old
Theo Maledon, France – 19 years old
Nico Mannion, Arizona – 19 years old
Yam Madar, Israel – 19 years old
This year’s crop of prospects might not feature the elite talent of recent years, but there sure are a good deal of point guards. For those in the market for a lead guard, there are tough decisions ahead – and with less tangible information on this year’s prospects than ever before. Good luck and godspeed to the scouts and league executives tasked with choosing between the above players!
NBA Standout Player Watch – Jan. 26
Basketball Insiders releases its first standout player watch of the year for the Eastern Conference. Tristan Tucker highlights some of the players that have shown out but are still vastly underrated.
This season, the All-Star game will not be played, though players will still be able to receive the honor and go down in the record books all the same. While players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and many more are surefire All-Stars, Basketball Insiders wants to give credit to some of the players that are being overlooked around the league.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at Basketball Insiders’ first edition of its standout player watch from the Eastern Conference, in no particular order.
When the Detroit Pistons signed Grant, someone that averages 9.8 points across his career, to a three year, $60 million deal in the offseason, everyone around the NBA raised their eyebrows. It was then reported that the Denver Nuggets offered the same deal to try and keep Grant, but he took on a role that would see him be the feature offensive piece in Detroit.
That move has completely paid off and Grant is having a year that almost no one, other than himself, could have expected. The 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 24.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and .9 steals per game, all career highs.
Grant is also having his most efficient season beyond the arc, shooting 38.2 percent from deep on 6.9 attempts per game, a fairly high number.
The Pistons are bad, there’s no way to sugarcoat that, but Grant alongside other pleasant surprises in Josh Jackson, Wayne Ellington and Saddiq Bey have made the team enjoyable to watch. Grant is playing like a legitimate superstar and should be named to the All-Star team this year, in whatever form that may take.
Over the last three seasons, LaVine has continued to improve and this season is no different. Despite averaging 23.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 45.3 percent shooting from the floor and 37.4 percent from deep across his Chicago Bulls career, LaVine has yet to make an All-Star team.
Perhaps that will all change this season, as LaVine is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists and blocks, plus close to a 50/40/90 split. The Bulls are decent this season, currently at 7-9, but for LaVine to be an All-Star lock, they’ll likely need to be in playoff position at the time of All-Star selections.
Brown appeared on Basketball Insiders’ week one MVP ladder, and that was no mistake. There’s a reason Brown was never included in any potential James Harden trade chatter, no matter how much the Houston Rockets may have wanted him – and that’s because he’s the real deal.
This season, Brown is the seventh-leading scorer in the league and is putting up an astounding 27.3 points, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 43 percent from deep on nearly seven attempts per game.
The Boston Celtics haven’t been at full strength for much of the season, without Jayson Tatum as he deals with a case of COVID-19, but Brown has his franchise among the frontrunners in the Eastern Conference nonetheless.
Randle had a season to forget last year after signing with the New York Knicks on a three-year, $62 million contract in the summer of 2019, as he took a dip in scoring and efficiency across the board from his breakout season the year before with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Something changed in the 6-foot-8 power forward over the offseason, as he is having a career year with the Knicks and has the team firmly in the playoff picture with an 8-10 record. The main difference in Randle’s game has been his shift in playstyle, transitioning to a playmaking big instead of someone that’s primarily an undersized low post threat.
Randle is averaging career highs in multiple statistical categories, up to 22.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game.
Vucevic is criminally underrated year after year and this season is more of the same. One of the only reasons the Orlando Magic is able to remain competitive in the face of huge injuries to key players like Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu is the play of Vucevic.
Vucevic has been giving it his all this season, putting up a career-high in points per game with 23.2 and has put in the work necessary to improve his long-range game. He’s shooting 42.6 percent from three on 6.4 attempts per game, by far and away the best deep shooting performance of his career.
While Vucevic has been named to an All-Star team before, his name is rarely mentioned when discussing the best bigs in the league, a narrative that he’s doing his all to change.
Domantas Sabonis/Malcolm Brogdon/Myles Turner
So many players have been playing stellar ball for the Indiana Pacers that it was impossible to narrow this selection down to just one.
Sabonis has downright played his way into the MVP conversation, notching a double-double in every single game he’s appeared in this season. Sabonis was an All-Star last year, and his play has continued to improve as he’s averaging 20.9 points, 12.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game.
Brogdon has also played his way into the MVP race, having been included in Basketball Reference’s ladder in the first month alongside Sabonis. It’s not hard to see why as he’s averaging what is by far a career-high 21.9 points with 7.1 assists on 39.5 percent shooting from deep on 7.1 attempts per game. Brogdon has also improved his on-ball defense, averaging 1.6 steals per game, a career-high.
Meanwhile, Turner may just be the most overlooked of them all, as he’s the heart and soul of this Indiana defense. Turner should be firmly in the lead for the Defensive Player of the Year award, as he’s holding opponents to shoot below league average and has averaged a whopping 4.1 blocks per game.
Honorable mentions: De’Andre Hunter, Gordon Hayward
It was hard to narrow this list down in the first place, with so many notable performances coming out of the Eastern Conference on a nightly basis. OG Anunoby and Chris Boucher are showing out for the Toronto Raptors and are helping that team back into the playoff picture, Shake Milton looks like one of the best guards in the conference while Tobias Harris is revitalizing his career under Philadelphia 76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers.
However, our honorable mentions this week are De’Andre Hunter and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are playing at a near All-Star level.
Hunter made the jump into a lead wing for the Atlanta Hawks after a promising first season and is up to 17.4 points per game, upping his efficiency across the board and fresh off a 33-point performance versus the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Charlotte Hornets’ signing of Hayward to a huge deal was widely panned across the league but the Hornets were always going to have to empty their pockets to get a player of his caliber. Hayward is averaging 24.1 points per game and is eerily close to a 50/40/90 shooting split. Hayward, alongside teammate Terry Rozier, have the Hornets in contention for a playoff spot, with both players playing at extremely high levels.
With so many outstanding players in the league, this list will be sure to change on a weekly basis. Be sure to check back at Basketball Insiders to see which players continue to shine!
What We Learned: Eastern Conference Week 4
What did we learn about the Eastern Conference this week? Jonathon Gryniewicz takes a look in the most recent edition of Basketball Insiders’ “What We Learned” series.
It’s not even a month into the NBA season, but the 2020-21 Eastern Conference has already looked super competitive, with 14 teams within six games of each other. There’s bound to be some separation in the coming weeks, don’t expect any team to go down easy.
But which have paced the East? Who’s flopped? Let’s take a look.
The New Look Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets big three of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and the newly acquired James Harden recently played their first game together against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The back-and-forth game ended in a double-overtime, 147-135 Nets loss. The three of them had plenty of time on the court together and divvied up the scoring; Durant scored 38 points on 25 shots in 50 minutes; Irving 37 points on 28 shots in 37 minutes; and Harden 21 points on 14 shots in 51 minutes.
But, outside of the box score, what did we learn about this team from their first performance?
You never want to jump to conclusions, but it’s easy to see that their offense could be dominant. When those three were on the court together, Harden served as the de facto point guard while Irving and Durant took their turns in isolation situations. Of course, in such an iso-based offense, there wasn’t much player movement beyond the trio, but they are so good at taking their own man off the dribble they can always get a good shot. What should make them even harder to guard is the fact that they’re all prolific three-point shooters; two can space at the three point line, while the other can use that extra space to either score themselves or collapse the defense and kick it outside.
Of course, there’s some work to be done. Harden and Irving combined for nine of the team’s 16 turnovers, while each of the three took their fair share of shots maybe just a bit too early in the shot clock. Defensively, Brooklyn is a major work-in-progress. Their closing lineup of Harden, Durant, Irving, Jeff Green and Joe Harris would appear to be solid but doesn’t offer much in terms of switchability and consistent rim protection. Beyond that, there isn’t much to be excited about.
Depth could also be an issue. They recently added Norvel Pelle to compete with two-way rookie Reggie Perry for backup center minutes. The team may have to look into an addition on the wing, too; while they currently roster Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, the three are young and, so far this season, have proven inconsistent at best. A veteran that could provide some bench stability should be the priority.
Kendrick Nunn is Emerging for the Miami HEAT
In recent days, Kendrick Nunn has played his best basketball in nearly a year.
The 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up, Nunn struggled in the Orlando Bubble last season as he saw a continually diminished role in Miami’s run to the NBA Finals. He started this season on a similar note, as he averaged only 5.5 points and played in just six of the HEAT’s first 12 games.
But, with Jimmy Butler and other key players dealing with injury, Nunn has seen a resurgence. In Miami’s last six games, not only has he played heavy minutes, but Nunn has flourished to the tune of 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He’s also shot 37.8 percent from three and 50 percent from the floor.
Of course, there’s the question of the competition. Nunn’s success has come against the Nets aforementioned suspect defense, as well as the Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors, two teams that have struggled mightily to start the year. Still, the spark he’s shown should help him maintain a role going forward, even after Butler and the rest return to the court.
If he can maintain hold down a role, or at least a bit of that spark, Nunn could prove a massive boon for Miami, whose offense has been pretty mediocre in the early going.
The Indiana Pacers Injury Woes
Under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, the Pacers’ 2020-21 season has seen a terrific start. Through 12 games, Indiana is 8-4 and have played a fun, up-tempo brand of basketball.
That said, they’ve had to deal with a lot on the injury front. After they netted Caris LeVert in the four-team blockbuster that sent Harden to Brooklyn, a mass was found on one of LeVert’s kidneys and he has since been ruled out indefinitely.
Myles Turner, meanwhile, just returned from a two-game absence due to an avulsion fracture in his right hand. In his absence, the Pacers’ defense just didn’t look the same, giving up 129 and 124 points to the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, respectively. The team started the season without Jeremy Lamb and has since lost T.J. Warren to a foot injury that is expected to hold him out for most of the season as well.
No team can lose two starters and expect to continue playing at the same level. If they can’t get healthy, expect it to play a major role in their standing and playoff position at the end of the season.
It will be interesting to watch the East over the next month to see which teams can separate themselves. Be sure to check back for the next part of our “What We Learned” series as we continue to keep an eye on the NBA all season long.
Miami’s Struggles About More than One Player
Drew Maresca assesses the Miami HEAT’s early-season struggles and their statistical slide from the 2019-20 campaign.
The Miami HEAT appeared to successfully turn the corner on a quick rebuild, having advanced to the bubble’s 2020 NBA Finals. It looked as though Miami took a short cut even, rebounding from the LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh era incredibly quickly. Ultimately, they did so through smart drafting – including the selections of Bam Adebayo, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro – plus, a little luck, like the signing of Jimmy Butler and smartly sticking with Duncan Robinson.
But despite the fact that they should have improved from last season, the tide may have turned again in South Beach.
Through 15 games, the HEAT are an underwhelming 6-9 with losses in each of their last two games. Miami is also scoring fewer points per game than last season – 109.3 versus 112 – while giving up more – 113.1 against 109.1.
Miami has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the NBA, and there are some embarrassing and noteworthy loses thus far. They lost by a resounding 47 points to the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this season, with extra harsh defeats of 20 points to the lowly Detroit Pistons and the mediocre Toronto Raptors.
What’s to blame for Miami’s woes? Unfortunately for the HEAT, it’s a number of things.
First of all, they need more from a few of their stars – and it starts at the very top. Jimmy Butler was Miami’s leading scorer in 2019-20, posting 19.9 points per game. But this season, Butler is scoring just 15.8 points per game on a sub-par 44.2 percent shooting. While Butler shot poorly from three-point range last season, too (24.4 percent), he hasn’t connected on a single three-pointer yet in 2020-21. This, coming from a guy who shot 34.7 percent from deep in 2018-19 and 35 percent in 2017-18.
But it’s not just his lack of scoring that’s hurting. Butler is also collecting fewer assists and rebounds as well. He’s averaging only 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, down from 6.7 ad 6.0 last season.
However, Butler’s main struggle this season has nothing to do with any statistic or slump. Butler has missed seven straight games due to COVID-19 protocols. Although to go-scorer wasn’t playing particularly well prior to isolating from the team – scoring in single digits twice – the HEAT are always in better shape if their leader takes the floor with them.
It’s not just Butler either. Tyler Herro also needs to regain his bubble form, at least as far as shooting is concerned. After connecting on 38.9 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts in 2019-20, he’s sinking only 30.2 percent of his 5.3 three-point attempts per game this season.
While Herro is scoring more – 17.2 points per game this season – and doing so more efficiently, he’s doesn’t pose the same threat from deep this season. So while he’s sure to pick it up sooner than later, he must do so to put more pressure on opposing defense.
It’s fair to assume Herro will solve his long-distance shooting woes, but the fact that he’s also struggling from the free throw line is concerning because it speaks more to his form. Herro is still well above the league average, connecting on 76.5 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe, but he shot a scorching 87 percent on free throw attempts last season.
So what’s behind the slump? More importantly, which Herro can the HEAT count on for the remainder of 2020-21? As much as Herro is on track to grow into an incredible player, Miami needs his efficiency to return to last season’s form if they expect to compete. But like Butler, a major part of Herro’s struggles are off the court.
Herro is currently dealing with an injury, having missed the last five games with neck spasms. Coach Erik Spoelstra noted that giving the injured Herro so many minutes before his big layoff likely exacerbated his injuries.
“There’s no telling for sure if this is why Tyler missed these games,” Spoelstra told the South Florida SunSentinel. “But it definitely didn’t help that he had to play and play that many minutes. We didn’t have anybody else at that point. If he didn’t play, then we would have had seven.”
But the HEAT’s struggles are about more than any one player – and that’s a big part of what makes Miami, Miami.
Still, their team stats are equally puzzling, like that the Miami HEAT currently ranks 20th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. In 2019-20, they were 7th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Obviously, something isn’t translating from last year, but what is it that’s missing?
Firstly, the HEAT are only the 18th best three-point shooting in terms of percentage. Last season, Miami was 2nd by shooting 37.9 percent. Herro returning to his old self should help quite a bit, and Butler making at least a few threes should improve spacing, too.
But it’s not just three-point shooting as the HEAT ranked last in field goal attempts last season, tallying just 84.4 attempts per game. And while they’re last again this season, they’ve managed to average even fewer attempts per game (81.7) despite maintaining nearly all of their roster.
The HEAT are also last in offensive rebounding, which translates to fewer field goal attempts and fewer points. And while Miami was 29th in offensive rebounds last season, they’re corralling 2.1 fewer rebounds this season (6.4) than in 2019-20 (8.5). What’s more, Miami is now last in total rebounds with only 40.9 per game. A number that also represents a fairly significant change as the HEAT were 17th a season ago with 44.4 per game – whew!
Lastly, Miami is turning the ball over more often than nearly any other team – sorry, Chicago – in 2020-21. During the prior campaign, the HEAT were barely middle of the pack, turning the ball over 14.9 times per game, a mark that left them 18th-best in the league. This season, they’re 29th and turning the ball over 17.7 times per game – dead last in terms of turnovers per 100 possessions.
It’s not all bad news for the HEAT, though. Bam Adebayo looks great so far, posting 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Second-year stud Kendrick Nunn is averaging 21.5 points on 56 percent shooting through the past four games; while Duncan Robinson is still a flame thrower, shooting 44.4 percent on 8.4 three-point attempts per game.
The HEAT’s upside is still considerable, but it’s easy to wonder if they captured magic in a bottle last season.