There have been a million ideas to reform the draft lottery in hopes of solving the NBA’s tanking issue, but each seems to create as many problems as it solves. Basketball Insiders publisher Steve Kyler illustrated this problem in relation to a separate issue — the idea of seeding playoff teams one through 16 and eliminating seeding by conference — in another NBA AM piece last month. Today we will present a concept to replace the NBA Draft Lottery system with an NBA Consolation Tournament to determine draft order that avoids some of the problems created by other proposals.
Before we start, below is a tweet from Kyler from last month that illustrates how serious the issue of tanking has become for the NBA.
Heard this alot from agent community this may be the biggest year of teams opting for "tank" route than try for 8th seed than ever before
— Steve Kyler (@stevekylerNBA) July 2, 2017
If player agents think more teams are deliberately setting out to lose games to maximize draft position than ever before, then the time has come to find a solution. The idea of a tournament for NBA teams that miss the playoffs isn’t new. For years, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons has proposed what he calls the “Entertaining As Hell Tournament.” However, his idea is to seed the top 14 playoff teams by record without regard to conference, then have the remaining teams play a single-elimination tournament with the finalists receiving the final two playoff seeds.
While Simmons’ tournament would undoubtedly be entertaining, it would push back the start of the playoffs and add days to the NBA calendar, one of the key issues Kyler mentioned in his piece. HEAT President Pat Riley also proposed a tournament for non-playoff teams in which the tournament winner would claim the top overall pick. Again, Riley’s proposal would be incredibly entertaining, but as we’ll show below, NBA owners have already rejected the idea of increasing the odds of a borderline playoff team winning a high lottery pick.
For purposes of this proposal, we’re going to take Kyler’s seeding arguments as definitive and say that it must remain as is. The 2014 Suns won 48 games but missed the playoffs in the stacked West while the 38-win Hawks made the playoffs in the East. In our proposal, nothing would change about the current seeding system and a similar 48-win team that missed the playoffs would participate in the Consolation Tournament described below.
In October of 2014, the NBA failed to get the 23 votes needed to implement proposed changes to the lottery system. One seemingly-counterintuitive feature would have increased the odds for the lottery team with the most wins to move into the top three of the draft by around 400 percent. This was odd since lottery reform is generally aimed at eliminating incentives to lose games deliberately. Under the league’s proposal, a team like the 48-win Suns of 2014 might miss the playoffs on purpose, given the massive bump in odds to receive a top three draft pick.
“I think we all recognize we need to find the right balance between creating the appropriate incentives on one hand for teams to, of course, win, and on the other hand allowing for appropriate rebuilding and the draft to work as it should in which the worst performing teams get the highest picks in the draft,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver told ESPN after the lottery reform proposal was voted down by the league’s owners.
And yet, as Grantland reported at the time, increasing the likelihood that a team that barely missed the playoffs would luck into a top three pick was a stated goal of the league’s proposal. It was reportedly defeated in part because a number of owners didn’t like it when the Cavaliers won the top overall pick in three out of four drafts. Upping the odds for a borderline playoff team to win a top pick could have made similar “insta-rebuilds” a more frequent feature of the NBA landscape.
This should never happen. The owners have spoken. So now we’ll introduce our draft reform proposal that eliminates nearly every incentive for teams to deliberately lose games.
In this system, teams that miss the playoffs would be seeded by conference for a Consolation Tournament in a manner similar to playoff seeding. Since there are only 14 teams that miss the playoffs versus 16 that make the playoffs, the top seeds get a bye in the first round. Rather than awarding the tournament winner with the top overall pick — a system that would undoubtedly lead to a team like the aforementioned 48-win Suns receiving a potential superstar — teams would move up one spot in the draft order for each round of the tournament the team wins.
The tournament would consist of a two-game home-and-home series with the winner determined by point aggregation. In other words, it doesn’t matter if each team wins one game. The team that scores the most points combined in the two games will move on to the next round. The top seeds for each conference can only win a total of three rounds by winning the tournament since they receive a bye in the first round. Below is the draft order for non-playoff teams as determined by record with the lottery system eliminated. By way of illustration, let’s say the higher-seeded team wins every round of the tournament, with the HEAT winning three rounds to emerge as champions. Next to the teams is the total number of draft slots they can potentially move up based on the number of rounds the team won.
14. HEAT (+3)
13. Nuggets (+2)
12. Pistons (+2)
11. Hornets (+1)
10. Pelicans (+2)
9. Mavericks (+1)
8. Kings (+1)
7. Knicks (+1)
In this example, there’s very little movement since the higher-seeded team won every game. By winning the tournament, the HEAT could potentially move from the 14th pick to the 11th pick since the team won three rounds. However, the Nuggets also won two rounds. In our final order below, the HEAT moves ahead of the Nuggets since we’re also awarding all tie-breaks to the higher-seeded team. As a rule, tie-breaks would go to the team that had the highest point differential for the tournament, with a second tie-break being total points scored.
Final lottery order after tie breaks:
The only way for the HEAT to jump all the way up to the 11th pick would be if the Nuggets, Hornets, and Pistons all lost in the first round. In our example, the Hornets and Pistons were still able to pick ahead of the HEAT since each won at least one round. Where the concept gets more interesting is when you consider a less-predictable scenario. Let’s say the consensus first pick was set to enter the league with hype on the level of LeBron James. The Nets, Suns, Lakers, and 76ers would all be supremely motivated to field the most competitive teams possible since an upset of a higher-seeded team in the first round could allow that team to move up in the draft order. For example, if the Suns — the seventh seed in the West — upset the second-seeded Pelicans in the first round while the Nets lost, Phoenix would move ahead of the Nets in the draft order.
This system would create two types of teams that end up in the lottery — those that miss the playoffs despite their best efforts and those that are rebuilding but never deliberately bottoming out. Those rebuilding teams will always get higher draft picks than teams on the fringes of the playoffs. But a deliberate tank job like the 76ers’ “process” would result in rebuilding teams having little chance to win rounds in the Consolation Tournament, which could cost those teams a chance at a once-in-a-generation player.
Finally, some of the rebuttals to proposals to eliminate conference seeding from Kyler’s piece apply here and must be addressed. Kyler wrote that a tournament would add days to the NBA calendar for lottery teams for which the offseason normally ends sooner. He also argued that pending free agents wouldn’t want to risk injury in a relatively-meaningless tournament to help a team potentially draft a replacement player. And finally, Kyler questioned if television networks and ticket buyers would pay for games that run concurrently with the playoffs.
The answer is that yes, fans and networks would be phenomenally engaged with a tournament built to decide who gets the top picks in the upcoming NBA drafts. In a scenario where a LeBron-level talent was set to enter the league, these games could potentially overshadow the first round of the NBA playoffs. The revenue thus produced would be the league’s primary incentive to implement the Consolation Tournament. Players would get paid out of the additional revenue just as they would from a playoff bonus.
And as for pending free agents fearing injury and being reticent to help a team draft a replacement player, there are two sides to that coin. NBA players pay as much attention to the draft and free agency as anyone. Players such as Magic Johnson have admitted timing their entry to the league to maximize their chance of playing on a preferred team with ideal personnel. Teams could certainly sit players with too much to lose, but most players would relish the opportunity to help their current team improve. If a pending free agent helps a team secure a generational talent with a spectacular run in the Consolation Tournament, that player will have increased their value in free agency and made a strong argument for the current team to keep them.
The NBA needs to end the era of tanking and a postseason tournament for teams that miss the playoffs is the right idea to create new revenue streams for the league and greater engagement for NBA fans. This proposal checks nearly every conceivable box. Teams will still rebuild by necessity, but never again will we see a team deliberately assemble the worst possible product. A postseason for 30 teams rather than the current 16 might seem like overkill, but when the revenue and ratings start pouring in, the NBA will wonder why it didn’t implement the tournament sooner.
NBA Daily: Kawhi Leonard Would Look Good In a Knicks Uniform… In 2019
The Knicks need to take a page out of the Sixers’ book… and trust the process.
Don’t get me wrong, Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving would both look great in New York Knick uniforms. Just not now.
Hey, let’s be frank—only a fool does the same thing over and over and expects different results.
Seven years ago, the Knicks the made mistake of trading their farm for a superstar caliber small forward. His name is Carmelo Anthony, and we all know how that story ended.
If you want to make the argument that Leonard is a better player than Anthony was at 27 years old, that’s your right. I won’t argue with you. But one thing that not even Max Kellerman could find a way to argue is that smart teams simply don’t trade assets for players they could ultimately end up getting for free. That’s why Paul George spent last season flanking Russell Westbrook instead of arguing with LaVar Ball.
Sure, Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka haven’t been on the job very long, but if there’s one thing they’ve already shown us is that they’re no newbies. That’s exactly why LeBron James is going to take his talents to Los Angeles in July. But we’ll save that discussion for next week.
As it stands, the Knicks have little aside from Kristaps Porzinigis going for them. With the Latvian unicorn expected to miss the majority of next season, they’ll probably have another lottery pick in the 2019 NBA Draft.
In other words, one year from now, the Knicks will have four of their own lottery picks under contract—Porzingis, Frank Ntilikina, and whichever players they will have selected in 2018 and 2019. Between now and then, the team would be best served scouring the G-League and overseas markets to find cheap help that can contribute at the NBA level.
That type of prudent management will not only help the Knicks in the long run, it will go a long way toward convincing soon-to-be free agents and player agents that Scott Perry and his staff actually know what they’re doing.
Know who will be free agents in July 2019?
If you answered Kawhi Leonard, you’re correct, but you only get partial credit.
The full answer is Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving, the latter of whom has been consistently rumored as having real interest in signing with the Knicks when he’s able to test the market next July. Depending on who you ask, there does seem to be a genuine level of concern that Irving could opt to take his talents elsewhere and if Irving is truly in search of building a legacy, one could fairly conclude that there has to be some level of intrigue.
Irving grew up in the shadows of Madison Square Garden and knows better than most what winning in New York City would do for his legacy. At the end of the day, would one championship in New York make Irving a legendary figure among the likes of Kobe Bryant or LeBron James?
Maybe not, but one thing we can call agree on is that winning in a single championship in New York would do much more for Irving than winning a single championship in Cleveland or even a single title in Boston.
As it stands, fair or not, history will always look at Irving as the “other” player on James’ championship Cavaliers team even though he was the one who made the biggest shot of James’ career.
And with the success of the Celtics this past season, truth be told, Irving helping lead the Celtics to a championship with the team’s current core in place wouldn’t necessarily cement his legacy in the way it would have had we not seen Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown show signs of being franchise-caliber players.
Because Irving is a shoot-first guard, he’s (rather unfairly) earned a reputation of someone who doesn’t make his teammates better. Because of the circumstances, he’s now in a bit of a catch-22. He’ll get less of the credit than he’ll deserve if the Celtics manage to win an NBA title and more of the blame than he’ll deserve if they fail to.
Kemba Walker—the only “true” All-Star caliber New Yorker in the NBA—and Long Island product Tobias Harris will also each be free come July 2019. Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Kevin Love and Nikola Vucevic, also.
It’d be one thing if the Knicks were one piece away from potentially winning the Eastern Conference, but with or without Kawhi Leonard, they’re light years away.
What makes most sense for the Knicks is to continue to stay the course, manage their cap intelligently, hit home runs with each of their next two lottery picks and try to find a way to trade Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah.
Depending on what happens with Kristaps Porzingis, it’s very possible that the Knicks could find themselves with enough cap room to sign two maximum-salaried free agents. Between now and then, they’d also have the opportunity to add a free attractive young pieces that would likely go a long way toward convincing players of Leonard’s ilk to entrust his legacy to the capable hands of the front office.
In other words, if the Knicks have truly learned anything from the futility of their recent past, it’s that they should try to be more like Magic Johnson’s Lakers than like the Knicks we’ve come to know.
Believe it or not, if the Knicks play their card rights and decide to stay the course and patiently rebuild as opposed to splurging for minimal gains, the unthinkable could happen…
They may actually prove themselves worthy of the attention of a marquee free agent.
Or, in this case, two of them.
Ranking the Free Agents – Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues to evaluate the top free agents at each position. David Yapkowitz breaks down the power forwards.
This week at Basketball Insiders, we’re taking a look at the top free agents set to the open market in just a few weeks. We’ve already covered the point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards. Now we check in with the power forwards.
There may only be a few power forwards who can probably expect a max or near max deal this summer, but there are quite a few guys that, for the right price, can end up being difference makers on a team next season.
Before getting into the actual free agents, here’s a look at what the salary cap numbers project to be. The NBA’s salary cap is expected to jump to $101 million this offseason. Based on that, here are the projected numbers for max contracts:
$25,250,000 for players with 0-6 years of experience
$30,300,000 for players with 7-9 years of experience
$35,350,000 for players with 10+ years of experience
Max/Near Max Guys
Julius Randle* – Los Angeles Lakers – Last Year’s Salary: $4,149,242
Julius Randle is definitely in line for a bigger payday this summer. The fourth-year forward turned in his best NBA season yet and was arguably the Lakers best player for most of the year. He played in all 82 games with 49 starts.
He put up career-high numbers across the board with 16.1 points per game on 55.8 percent shooting from the field. Most of Randle’s scoring comes in the paint where his “bully” ball type game has proven quite effective. He has an improving jump shot and at 23 years old, he still has his best years ahead of him.
He will be a restricted free agent, giving the Lakers the ability to match any offer he receives, but doing so could come at the expense of signing two max-level free agents as has been the team’s plan. It’s going to be an interesting dilemma for the Lakers as Randle most likely will attract interest right away from potential suitors thus forcing the Lakers hand early on in free agency.
Aaron Gordon* – Orlando Magic – Last Year’s Salary: $5,504,420
Aaron Gordon will also most likely receive a max or near max contract his summer. Early in the season when the Orlando Magic started out hot, Gordon was playing like an All-Star and even a borderline MVP candidate.
The Magic’s play then went rapidly south, but Gordon finished the season averaging 17.6 points per game, 7.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists, all career-highs. At the beginning of the season, he displayed a much improved three-point shot. The Magic have tried him at small forward before, but he’s a natural at power forward.
Gordon is also a restricted free agent allowing the Magic to match any offer. At age 22, he should also have his best years ahead of him. For a team like the Magic, in need of talent and quality young players, re-signing Gordon is probably ideal. But it’s also important to note that the Magic have a newer front office in place, one that did not draft Gordon. It’s also possible that John Hammond and Jeff Weltman might want to shape the roster in their vision.
Above Mid-Level Guys
Jabari Parker* – Milwaukee Bucks – Last Season’s Salary: $6,782,392
Jabari Parker is perhaps one of the most interesting and intriguing names on the free agent market. A former No. 2 overall pick, as a rookie Parker looked like he was definitely part of the Bucks growing young core. Unfortunately for him, injuries struck him hard as he suffered two ACL tears during a three-year period.
This season, he struggled a bit to find a role with the Bucks. There’s no question that if he’s healthy, he’d be quite an asset to any team. He represents the new breed of power forward with a perimeter game. Prior to his injuries, he’d almost assuredly be a max contract guy. It’s a bit difficult to imagine any team willing to pay him anywhere close to that now.
The Bucks have the option to match any contract offer he gets as he is a restricted free agent. It’s conceivable that they would do so as it will probably take a massive offer to pry Parker away from the Bucks. It’s unlikely that any team is willing to go that high.
Thaddeus Young** – Indiana Pacers – Last Season’s Salary: $14,796,348
Thaddeus Young could be another intriguing power forward on the free agent market. The thing with Young is he has a player option he could choose to exercise and become a free agent. Never an All-Star, Young has been a steady and dependable player his entire career.
His numbers were a bit under his career averages this season. He put up 11.8 points per game on 48.7 percent shooting from the field and he pulled down 6.3 rebounds. Nevertheless, he remained an important part of the Pacers rotation, especially on the defensive end.
Should he hit the open market, there likely wouldn’t be any shortage of suitors.
Derrick Favors – Utah Jazz – Last Season’s Salary: $12,000,000
Ed Davis – Portland Trail Blazers – Last Season’s Salary: $6,352,531
Montrezl Harrell* – Los Angeles Clippers – Last Season’s Salary: $1,471,382
Mid-Level Or Below Guys
Mike Scott – Washington Wizards – Last Season’s Salary: $1,471,382
Ersan Ilyasova – Philadelphia 76ers – Last Season’s Salary: $357,454
Trevor Booker – Indiana Pacers – Last Season’s Salary: $332,516
David West – Golden State Warriors – Last Season’s Salary: $1,471,382
Nemanja Bjelica* – Minnesota Timberwolves – Last Season’s Salary: $3,949,999
Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors – Last Season’s Salary: $1,471,382
Mike Muscala** – Atlanta Hawks – Last Season’s Salary: $5,000,000
Amir Johnson – Philadelphia 76ers – Last Season’s Salary: $11,000,000
Channing Frye – Los Angeles Lakers – Last Season’s Salary: $7,420,912
Quincy Acy – Brooklyn Nets – Last Season’s Salary: $1,709,538
*Qualifying Offer (If made, the player becomes a restricted free agent.)
**Player Option (The player has the choice of whether to opt-in for another year with his current team or opt-out to become an unrestricted free agent.)
NBA Daily: Four International Prospects Worth Stashing
While much of the international buzz has fallen on Luka Dončić, there are four other overseas prospects worth keeping your eye on.
Without fail, mock drafts come and go all spring with little mention of potential international draftees. It makes perfect sense. Not every overseas athlete can get the buzz of Real Madrid’s Luka Dončić — or, in most cases, even that of Élie Okobo and Džanan Musa, two international prospects with decent chances of going in the first round next week. Still, would it surprise you to know that seven international draftees were taken in the second round in 2017? Or that 2016 went one better and reached eight? In fact, 2015 saw 10 foreign-born prospects get selected after pick No. 30 — so this is a trend, not an aberration.
Granted, a handful of those draftees haven’t and will not ever play meaningful NBA minutes — but the point still very much stands. However, outside of those aforementioned three — Dončić, Okobo and Musa — even the most-educated of fans would be hard-pressed to rattle off four more transatlantic options. Luckily, Basketball Insiders has your back. Memorize these easily-digestible profiles to impress your friends and family during the NBA Draft — you can thank us later.
Isaac Bonga, Germany — Fraport Skyliners
Age: 18 — Height: 6-foot-9 — Position: SG/SF
Last Mock Rank: No. 39 to Philadelphia
By most accounts, Bonga will be drafted next week — so, admittedly, he’s not the deepest cut on this list. But if the German isn’t on many casual radars just yet, he should be soon enough. His statistics are hardly remarkable — Bonga averaged just six points, three rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in 2017-18 — but his physical measurements project him as a difference-maker. Standing at 6-foot-9, the 18-year-old talent has some legitimate playmaking abilities already. Of course, overseas highlight reels have proven to be misleading time and time again — but watch this timestamped move from last summer’s FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup and try not to get too excited.
Comparing Bonga to other size-aided court generals is weak at best, but he also boasts a seven-foot wingspan, shoots 92.1 percent from the free throw line and his on-court vision is noteworthy for a teenager. Bonga’s best individual performance of the season came against Eisbären Bremerhaven, where he notched 16 points, five rebounds, two assists, two steals and two blocks on 2-for-2 from three-point range. Given his current stature, he won’t be limited to just defending one or two positions if he bulks up over the next couple years either. There’s no guarantee that Bonga will make it professionally in America, but there are some compelling reasons to take a wait-and-see approach with this capable youngster.
Rodions Kurucs, Latvia — FC Barcelona
Age: 20 — Height: 6-foot-9 — Position: SF
Last Mock Rank: No. 37 to Sacramento
Originally, Kurucs had considered coming over last season after scoring 9.5 points per game for FC Barcelona II. Although raw, the then-19-year-old was a projected late first-rounder for much of the workout process — but he ultimately opted to head back to Spain for another year. In 2017-18, his counting statistics improved nominally, but he finally spent time with FC Barcelona, one of Europe’s top clubs. Unfortunately, that’s also where things begin to get a bit tricky.
Between his allegedly expensive buyout and Barcelona freely swapping Kurucs between their two clubs to keep him away from visiting scouts, the Latvian is now widely seen as a second-round pick across the board. He had until June 11 to withdraw his name, but — perhaps knowing that things will forever remain difficult in Spain — is just going to make the most of a bad situation. Even with his up-and-downs, Kurucs is often a crafty scorer that can go both inside and outside with the ball.
Although Kurucs has two-way potential, make no mistake, the offense is the prospect’s bread and butter. As we’ve learned in recent years, the NBA will always find room for deadeye shooters and that’s what Kurucs may eventually bring to the table. The talent is here for Kurucs but his long-term NBA future likely depends on which franchise he lands with.
Issuf Sanon, Ukraine — Petrol Olimpija
Age: 18 — Height: 6-foot-3 — Position: G
Last Mock Rank: No. 57 to Oklahoma City
Qualifying as one of the more under the radar options, Sanon is a Ukrainian baller currently playing for Petrol Olimpija in Slovenia. In 2017-18, Sanon averaged six points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.1 steals over 20.2 minutes per game and presently projects as a combo guard. Although his professional moments have offered glimpses of an NBA-worthy path, Sanon made his biggest mark last summer at the FIBA U18 European Championship. In what would become his breakout tournament, Sanon averaged 19.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists over seven games.
During a slim two-point defeat to Turkey in the Round of 16, Sanon tallied 27 points, five rebounds, four assists, three steals and made three of his five attempts from deep. He’ll need to continue developing at the three-point line — he shot just 29.3 percent this season — but Sanon looks like he could be a viable 3-and-D candidate down the road. That said, like many international second-rounders, it’s unlikely that Sanon will come over for a few years at least. But if he keeps developing at this rate, drafting and stashing Sanon would be a shrewd move for any franchise.
Arnoldas Kulboka, Lithuania — Capo d’Orlando
Age: 20 — Height: 6-foot-9 — Position: F
Last Mock Rank: Unranked
Last but not least, there’s Arnoldas Kulboka — a long-ranged assassin with the numbers to back it up. In 2017-18, Kulboka went on loan to Capo d’Orlando of Serie A, a club with which he quickly found success. He was even named Best Young Player in the Basketball Champions League, a new, FIBA-led, European-wide competition. At the 2017 U19 Basketball World Cup, Kulboka averaged 13.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and two assists over seven games. As an athletic, microwavable shooter, Kulboka naturally goes through bouts of inconsistency — but when he’s on, the Lithuanian appears like a tremendous prospect. In the tournament opener against Germany, Kulboka dropped 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists on 5-for-8 from downtown. What else could you want?
On the flip side, during Lithuania’s quarterfinal defeat at the hands of Italy, Kulboka scored just five points on 1-for-15 shooting — so there’s certainly still room to improve. Given his NBA-ready range and his perfect fit in a modern offensive system, those facets alone make Kulboka worth considering. Regardless, success at the international level from an early age is not always an indicator of future achievements, that much should be obvious. But for a mid-to-late second rounder, franchises could do far worse than stashing Kulboka.
While there’s no promise that everybody on this list will even join the NBA someday, they’ve all proved that their names should be known heading into draft week. From former FIBA standouts to those with positionless potential, these four overseas standouts could be difference-makers in the forthcoming years.