The Truths Of The Miami HEAT: Four straight NBA Finals appearances, four Eastern Conference championships and two NBA championships.
Let that sink in for a minute. Then ask yourself, how was this a disappointing season for the Miami HEAT?
Sure, the HEAT did not come away with championship number three, but few teams have. How many teams have looked their best in a fourth straight Finals appearance? Not many. There is a reason we’ve never seen a four-peat in the modern NBA.
To get as deep as Miami has gotten, it eats up players. Most teams in Miami’s position stock up on older veterans so this happens to everyone, eventually. The HEAT were historically worn down, playing more postseason games over the last four seasons than any other team in NBA history over a four-year span.
Yes, the HEAT got worked by the San Antonio Spurs. So did the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers. The Dallas Mavericks were the only team that really made the Spurs sweat.
So let’s give a little credit to the Spurs for playing amazing basketball and maybe dial back the doom and gloom surrounding the HEAT.
There is no doubting that there are going to be changes in Miami, but the odds are that the three guys making the most money, you know the ones who delivered the championships for the previous two seasons, are going to be back and that a new, more balanced supporting cast will be brought in. So let’s dig into what’s next in Miami:
You Come To The King, The King Doesn’t Come To You
For whatever insane reason there is this belief that HEAT star LeBron James is packed and ready to move on to another team, that he has been secretly waiting for this summer so he can land somewhere else. Maybe a dysfunctional Cleveland Cavalier team? Who is their head coach today? Maybe he’ll bolt to the Los Angeles Lakers to be with Kobe Bryant and be the future of their franchise, but how many games did Kobe play last year? What is so attractive about their roster again?
There is a truth to be told here: The teams that could lure LeBron away do not have the means to lure him away. But before you even get to lure him away, you have to get him to believe that Pat Riley and Micky Arison are not going to re-tool this team to get right back to the Finals next year.
Who is closer to another Finals run in the East than the HEAT?
James has two years and $42 million left on his contract, a contract that will pay him $20.59 million next season and $22.11 million after that if he opts in.
He has options, which gives him power, and he will surely flex his muscle a little to ensure that the HEAT as a team and an organization do whatever it takes to re-fit and get back. That’s why it’s good to have contract options.
Dwyane Wade Is Not Dead
To listen to how people talk about Wade, it’s as if they didn’t notice he scored 17.8 points a game in the postseason and shot a scorching 50 percent from the field. Wade was the difference maker in a couple of the games against Indiana, but like most of the HEAT players, he did not play well against the Spurs.
News flash, Russell Westbrook didn’t play incredibly well against the Spurs either; he shot the ball about eight more times a game than Wade did.
Might the Spurs have had a little something to do with how effective Wade was?
There is no doubting that Wade’s body is breaking down and that going forward he’ll need to play a very different kind of role, but some talk about Wade as though he must retire or that LeBron can’t win with him. This overlooks the fact that LeBron did win with Wade. They won for the last four years all the way to the NBA Finals.
What has to happen for Wade is that he can’t make $20 million a year next year, so that the HEAT have the flexibility to add more support players. Like James, Wade has the option for free agency and has two years and some $41 million left on his deal that will pay him $20.164 million and $21.655 million respectively.
The question isn’t whether Wade can contribute, he clearly can, the question is how can Miami add to what Wade may no longer be able to do for 40 minutes a game.
Everybody Hates Chris
Fifty percent shooting from the field, 16.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, one block a game and a PER of 19.11. Who wouldn’t take that from their third option?
By the way, Chris Bosh’s best season in Toronto was 24 points and 10 rebounds a game on 51.8 percent shooting as the primary option. He is really not that far off production wise considering the role he plays. And by the way, he doesn’t get to choose the role he plays.
There is an underlying truth in this equation: There are only so many touches and shots in a NBA game, and when you want LeBron to lead the way he does, that means others won’t be as productive as they can be.
Like Wade, Bosh clearly can be more for the HEAT than he showed against the Spurs – again maybe we need to credit the Spurs a little.
Like LeBron, Bosh’s contract has two more years remaining worth roughly $42 million; $20.59 million next season and $22.11 million after that.
Bosh has already said he’ll be back in Miami next year, meaning he either gets a new deal or he stays in his current one.
It’s easy to point to Bosh and say he has to go, but the truth is he has won the HEAT a lot of games, and while he’s highly paid as a third option, you got two championships out of it. That’s the cost of doing business.
Not Too Much To Deal With
Outside of the James, Wade and Bosh, the HEAT have three other contracts worth talking about.
Udonis Haslem has a player option worth $4.62 million; that’s a lot for what Haslem brings to the table. But let’s say he takes the option, does he really make any money the following year in the summer of 2015 or is he a minimum guy?
So he’ll make $4.6 million next year and maybe $1.2 million as a veteran minimum player next year. That gets him to two years and $5.8 million. Hold on to that number, we’ll come back to it.
Chris Andersen has a player option of his own worth $1.44 million. He already said he plans to opt out of that deal, so we can pull that off the books. That leaves Norris Cole’s guaranteed $2.03 million.
The HEAT have the 26th pick in next week’s NBA Draft and assuming they keep the player they draft there, that’s a $991,600 cap hold.
The HEAT are not in a tough spot salary wise, outside of the Big Three.
Time To Work The System
The solution for Miami isn’t overly difficult; in fact you may not even need a calculator to work this one out.
The Big Three have roughly two years and $42 million remaining. If all three opt-out and sign new five-year, $85 million deals, their first year salary drops from roughly $21 million to $14.04 million, and escalates up to about where they currently are today.
Not great for LeBron, but excellent for Bosh and Wade in that they get the $42 million owed to them and another $43 million for helping keep the band together.
Haslem has $4.6 million left as we covered above. He declines his option and gets a new three-year deal worth $6.2 million. His $4.6 million drops to $1.87 million, but he stays in the NBA and more importantly plays in Miami for three more seasons.
Assuming Andersen is off the books as he says, he could still be re-signed later as he is basically an NBA minimum guy anyway.
So let’s run the math: James ($14.04 million), Wade ($14.04 million), Bosh ($14.04 million), Haslem ($1.8 million), Cole ($2.03 million) and a draft pick ($992K) for a grand total of $46.94 million. Or, said another way, $16.05 million in useable cap space and the Big Three stay to together and can go shopping for teammates.
Those Last Years Are Ugly
So by this point you are saying, ‘Wait Bosh and Wade owed $43 million over three more years?’
Sure, and here is why.
Currently the salary cap is expected to be set at $63 million. Wade is expected to make $20.164 million or roughly 32 percent of the cap this year and likely 30 percent of the salary cap the following year.
The NBA is going to have a new national TV deal soon, and the salary cap is projected to continue to escalate and will likely be in the $75 to $80 million range as the Big Three get to the end of their newly minted deals.
Let’s say the cap gets to $77 million three years from now when Wade is slated to make $17 million again, that’s 22 percent of the cap. If it crosses $80 million as some suggest it may, then we’re talking 21.2 percent of the cap. He is making 32 percent now.
Sure, you back load what could be the ugliest years of Wade’s career and risk eating the last year, but is that worth it to the HEAT to keep the Big Three together and add potentially $16 million worth of new talent to the roster?
The HEAT are far from handcuffed if the Big Three want this winning train to keep rolling. Think about what $16 million could buy in free agency?
Here are the projected 2014-2015 NBA Free Agents; played the right way Miami could have as many as three.
The only guy that loses in this scenario is LeBron, because he could make $129 million this summer without breaking a sweat. He’d also tie himself to Wade and Bosh in ways he may not want to do.
But for the rest of the team, they kick the financial ball down the road a little and keep what’s clearly been working together.
The HEAT have options, especially if everyone wants to play ball. Before you write that concept off as improbable – that’s exactly what they did in 2010, not only to come together in Miami, but to create enough cap room to sign Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller.
Trading Up?: There has been some talk that the Philadelphia 76ers want to ensure they come away from the 2014 NBA Draft with Kansas swingman Andrew Wiggins, so much so that they have talked with the Cleveland Cavaliers about trading up to the top overall pick or at least doing a deal where the Cavs draft Wiggins and a swap occurs later in the draft.
These kind of talks happen a lot in the week leading up to the draft and while the 76ers are sitting on the third pick and the 10th pick, they seem unwilling to part with both first rounders. The 76ers do seem open to giving up the third pick and some combination of second round picks they have amassed this year in trade and possibly forward Thaddeus Young.
The Cavaliers have yet to lock in on particular player and have worked out Kansas big man Joel Embiid and are set to workout Wiggins and Jabari Parker this week.
Unlike the NFL where there is sort of defined trade up value structure on draft picks, in the NBA it’s more fluid. Usually a trade up even from the third spot would require a first this year and some sort of future first. There is a sense that Cleveland might be more open to veterans in a trade up scenario if they can get a player they like in the draft and a roster player for a playoff run.
While the 76ers do seem willing to move up, they are not alone. There has been talk that the Utah Jazz would like to move into the top three and may be willing to give up some of the assets the acquired from Golden State last year for a shot at Parker.
There was also talk that guard Alec Burks could be had if it netted the Jazz Parker.
Expect the “trading of picks” chatter to pick up over the next week as teams begin to zero in on who they like.
As we do every year, we will have a NBA Draft Day Diary that will launch on Wednesday the 25, we’ll keep you up to date on all the news and notes surrounding the NBA draft and the potential trades and deals that come with it.
Look for that to drop next Wednesday.
More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @TheRocketGuy, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible @TommyBeer, @JabariDavisNBA , @NateDuncanNBA , @MokeHamilton , @JCameratoNBA and @YannisNBA.
The X-Factors: Brooklyn
Drew Maresca continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by identifying potential difference-makers for the Brooklyn Nets when the NBA returns this July.
The NBA season appears ready to resume. It looks set to do so in Walt Disney World (Orlando, Florida), and it may or may not consist of all 30 teams.
While the details aren’t entirely ironed out, it seems to no longer be the question of if, but when for the 2019-20 season’s return. With that in mind, Basketball Insiders has set out to identify the x-factors of each team in their respective quests to qualify for and advance in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. We’ve already covered the New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers. Next up, we turn out attention to the most controversial of the whole bunch – the Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets are currently 30-34 – a significant step back from the winning season they posted in the previous season (42-40). But injuries and acclimating to new star players cost them dearly. Fortunately for the Nets, they are still either the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference or 15th in the league overall, depending on how the playoffs are to be seeded – but either way they’ll pick up where they left off or qualify for the postseason, facing off against either the Toronto Raptors or the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Nets have as much to gain from the two-month-long, COVID-19-related interruption as anyone. But they also have plenty of unanswered questions – and big ones at that. Questions include, “How effectively will Jacque Vaughn take over in Kenny Atkinson’s place?” and “Will Jarrett Allen’s relegation to the bench continue? If so, will it adversely affect team chemistry?” But somehow, those aren’t even the team’s biggest x-factors.
Their first x-factor is their biggest – almost literally. It’s also, figuratively, the NBA’s biggest x-factor—and it’s not even close. It’s Kevin Durant. When healthy, Durant is one of the three best players on the planet – even with LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. But just how good is he? Well, he’s good for 27 points and 7 rebounds per game across his entire 12-year career. He also dealt 5.9 assists per game in 2018-19 on average – a career-high. He’s long, scores in every way imaginable, defends and plays better in the clutch – to which his two-NBA Finals MVP awards speak.
But enough about Durant’s abilities, will he be ready to play? Unfortunately for Brooklyn, it’s unclear if its newest and shiniest toy is ready to be unboxed. Durant tragically ruptured his Achilles tendon in Game 5 of last year’s NBA Finals, and he hasn’t played since. Durant’s representatives did an excellent job of managing expectations, clearly stating that — regardless of circumstance — Durant was unlikely to return at all in 2019-20.
And all was well in Brooklyn. The Nets still had to work Kyrie Irving into their rotation, and they were clearly on board with Durant’s rehab plan. The media’s expectations have been tempered, leading to a more seamless rehabilitation schedule, and it was widely known that Durant would not return before the start of 2020-21.
But expectations change quickly in New York. First, we saw leaked videos featuring Durant working out painlessly on the basketball court, in which he was running and jumping. And then, COVID-19 turned our worlds upside down. It put the entire NBA season and just about everything else on hold. As we approached the light at the end of the tunnel that is the NBA season, the NBA universe began considering what finishing the season would mean to players and staff. Paramount in that series of questions is one that greatly affects the Nets – does the late-July start date for the return of the NBA season give Durant enough extra time rehabbing his Achilles to come back this season?
Unfortunately for Brooklyn – as well as the broader basketball community – the answer is probably “no.” The risk is too great. As unique and talented as Durant is, he’s also bound to be out of basketball shape. The speed of the game would be a challenging adjustment, even if he is fully healed. After all, healthy and ready are worlds apart. But nothing’s been decided yet, and that means there’s still a chance. And it’s ultimately, entirely up to Durant – who’s been unsurprisingly tight-lipped.
If Durant does return, he would headline a pretty deep and very talented roster. But Durant along doesn’t make the 30-34 Nets a contender all by himself. He needs at least one other piece to do so, which leads us to Brooklyn’s other major x-factor – Kyrie Irving.
Like Durant, Irving alone doesn’t make the Nets a contender – we actually have more evidence of this given that the Nets were only 4-7 through Irving’s first 11 games before he suffered an injury. But Irving played incredibly in that time, averaging 28.5 points, 7.2 assists and 5.4 rebounds. Maybe the problem was less Irving and more the team’s ability to fit around him? Then again, maybe not. Either way, Irving is an obviously special player who can steal away an opponent’s momentum in the blink of an eye. And like Durant, Irving thrives on clutch situations, sporting a few highlight-worthy crunch-time moments and one legendary game-winner in the 2016 NBA Finals.
So how is Irving an x-factor? After starting out the season on fire, Irving missed 26 consecutive games with a shoulder injury. He returned to play in nine games in early 2020 before opting for surgery to repair his injured shoulder on March 3. The New York Daily News reported in April that Irving would be sidelined for approximately six months, which means Irving shouldn’t be ready to return until September.
Still, it’s within the realm of possibilities that Irving opts to speed up his rehab schedule. After all, allowing an entire season to go to waste with the core and role players that Brooklyn has under contract is unwise. Championship windows aren’t open forever. Granted, this season was always seen as a throwaway for Brooklyn. But making a run this season is kind of like betting with house money. Ultimately, if one of Durant and Irving want to return, expect the other to follow.
So assuming they’re healthy enough to do so, what would the Nets chances be with them both back in the fold? The less-likely scenario is unfortunately the more interesting one. And it’s against the Lakers.
The Lakers are clearly the favorites – even with Durant and Irving dressing for the other side. They have the league’s best player and its most dominant big man, respectively. And while Irving and Durant would be healthy, the time off would have likely aided James more than anyone. So if the NBA decides to re-seed all 16 playoff teams and Durant and Irving can return, the Nets face a very tough decision.
But the other possibility is more likely, and it provides an easier first-round matchup with the Raptors. This writer was down on the Raptors all season, and they made sure to prove me wrong at just about every possible juncture to do so. But the fact remains – they’re not as good as their record indicates. They’re 46-18 this season, good for the second-best record in the East and third-best in the entire league. They’re quite good – but they just don’t have the horsepower to play with the elite teams in the league (e.g., Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, against whom they are a collect 1-4). When Leonard left, so too did any hopes of winning another championship with this particular unit. The thought of facing off against Durant and Irving has probably haunted Masai Ujiri and Nick Nurse since the idea first entered their brains a month or so ago.
This isn’t predicting an upset, but let’s put it like this: if Durant returns, I would advise bettors to steer clear of this matchup. And if Durant and Irving lead a first-round upset, they’ll enter the Eastern Conference semifinals (or the equivalent of them) with serious momentum and nothing to lose – and that’s a dangerous combination.
One way or the other, the NBA season will be back this summer. As much as this season will always carry an asterisk, it will still end with an NBA champion being crowned.
And that matters to the players — asterisk or not.
The X-Factors: Portland
Spencer Davies continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by looking at potential game-changers for the Portland Trail Blazers when the NBA returns.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
That’s probably an appropriate way to characterize the steam that’s been picking up over the last week regarding the eventual return of the NBA. What the plan exactly will be is yet to be determined, but there are potential scenarios surfacing left and right. And with the NHL officially having a resumption blueprint set in stone, we’re probably not too far away from learning The Association’s fate.
In an effort to prepare ourselves for that day, Basketball Insiders has begun an x-factor series for each team around the current playoff picture. Basically, “if this happens…” or “what if this player is healthy?” type of scenarios are what we’re looking at. Ben Nadeau kicked us off Tuesday with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, we’re going to look at the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a similar situation out in the Western Conference.
Scratching and clawing for that final seed to make the postseason for the seventh straight season, the Blazers have work to do at 29-37. They’re going to need help in the standings race with several other squads surrounding them chasing after the same thing. Along with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, Portland is 3.5 games back of the West’s eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Even the San Antonio Spurs are hanging by a thread with their playoff streak in jeopardy with a four-game hole in the standings.
We can technically call this our first dependent situation. There is going to be a ton of schedule watching around these five teams. It’s all contingent on the NBA’s decision about how to go about a return — a 72-game benchmark, a play-in tournament, straight to the postseason, etc. Who’s going to have an easier schedule? Who’s going to have more games to play and increase their chances?
For example, the Blazers could have six games left to play to make up that gap on the Grizzlies, a team that was next up on their list in a pivotal head-to-head scenario. The Spurs, however, would have nine games to try and right the ship — by far the highest amount of contests in comparison to the four others they’re fighting against. None of this is concrete because we don’t know what solution the league is going to agree upon; that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t come to mind as a hypothetical.
Then, there’s that Damian Lillard guy. You know, the dude that is Portland’s franchise. The man that went on a mid-January to early February eight-game run where he absurdly averaged over 45 points, 9.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds, while nailing 53 percent of both his field goals and three-balls. He averaged 40 minutes in this stretch, quite literally putting the team on his back to keep pace with the surging Grizzlies.
Lillard’s publicly come out and said flat-out that if the league elects to go with the benchmark idea, he wouldn’t participate. He’d gladly support his teammates and join them, just not on the court for games. Speaking with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, the All-Star point guard expressed his desire for a tournament-style setup where there are playoff implications on the line. Suiting up to satisfy certain criteria with no incentive isn’t his preferred method of return. He wants to compete and, considering the effect of rustiness and other unknowns that could play a factor in these hypothetical matchups, Lillard would love for Portland to be the group that knocks others out unexpectedly.
Let’s not forget that the Blazers could have two starting-caliber players back that would’ve made their return from injury at some point this past March, either. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins have their own specific capabilities that can dramatically improve what the team’s been missing since the beginning of the year.
Nurkic is an outstanding interior presence that brings physicality and finishing ability, as well as a big body to secure rebounds and dare opponents to come into the paint. This is no knock on Hassan Whiteside, who has arguably had the best season of his career as a blocking and boarding machine. It’s more about the lack of depth behind him, which is where Nurkic can step right in without Portland losing its reliability at the five. It’s been a revolving door at backup center for the Blazers, which has allowed the opposition to attack at will and get easy buckets. Nurkic’s return will shut that right off, as well as give the second unit a reliable scoring option.
Collins, his frontcourt partner, was supposed to have a breakout campaign in store for the league. Instead, the athletic third-year big man suffered a dislocated left shoulder just three games into the season. While it has sidelined him since then, he was targeting March as a return target. Obviously, with the league suspending operations, that didn’t happen as planned. But with the calendar turning to June in less than a week, and with his optimism shining through his rehab, it’s probably OK to assume Collins is close to being in the clear for a comeback.
Collins brings things to the table that neither Nurkic nor Whiteside does — an ability to stretch the floor being the most obvious skill that stands out. He can knock down triples at a decent rate and, more importantly, create space for Lillard and CJ McCollum to operate. The 6-foot-11 power forward has quicker foot speed than the other bigs Portland has, too.
Though the Blazers should be plenty excited about Nurkic and Collins’ impending return, they also have to be realistic about how much those two will play. We already mentioned Collins’ shoulder dislocation, but Nurkic hasn’t been on the floor since Mar. 25 of last year. Terry Stotts and his coaching staff will have to pay close attention to each of their minutes. How that whole situation is handled will be crucial to ensure there’s no long-term damage done for any party.
Just like the rest of their competition, the Blazers will have to also monitor how their older veterans handle ramping things back up again. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are both in their mid-30s and have taken on a heavy minute load. They are starters who average over 30 minutes per game that just abruptly stopped playing for months. It isn’t going to be easy on anybody, but the younger players can probably recover and restart easier than those seasoned vets.
Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons are likely to come out of this hiatus with the most energy out of anybody simply because they’re the youngest guys on the team. We all know how hungry the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum is going to be. It’s exciting to think about.
All we can do now is wait to find out what the next steps are toward a restart.
Luckily for us, that news might not be too far away.
The X-Factors: New Orleans
Ben Nadeau kicks off a new Basketball Insiders series by examining potential game-changers for when the NBA resumes play.
Basketball is back, baby.
Well, sorta. OK, actually, not really. But they’re talking about it. Finally.
Beyond that, they’re apparently making true, meaningful progress. And although the NBA is circling through potential scenarios — bubble games, re-seeding, ignoring conferences, etc. — there’s a very real chance that this shindig gets underway by mid-July.
To celebrate the re-arrival of actual talk and analysis, Basketball Insiders is kicking off its newest series — this time, one that focuses on a real-life hypothetical. The idea of an x-factor is inherently goofy, typically leading to sentences like: “Well, if Player Z hits 43 percent of his three-pointers, they’ll be tough to beat.” And, yeah, duh.
Given the sport-wide break, there are some perfectly valid questions to be asked. For example, with an extra two months off, where does Victor Oladipo’s health stand? If he’s fully healthy, the Indiana Pacers are going to be a whirlwind of a problem for their higher-seeded first-round matchup. Could the return of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic ensure their postseason place? And, finally, Kevin Durant – a decision that looms large over every other potential proceeding.
But that’s not why we’ve gathered at this particular URL right now – that would be to discuss the New Orleans Pelicans, a franchise that currently finds itself 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Naturally, any chance for success depends on the NBA ratifying a plan that behooves the Pelicans’ hopes. Whether that’s a return to the regular season or a totally-invented play-in series, it doesn’t matter as New Orleans needs some help outside of their own good fortunes.
Should they get the opportunity to control their own fate, there’d be plenty to research and anoint as a Holier Than Thou X-Factor. We could talk about J.J. Redick’s 45.2 percent mark from three-point range or how his 110 postseason games are 28 more than the rest of the roster combined.
Maybe there’d be a paragraph or two on Brandon Ingram’s steady ascent to stardom. Ingram’s post-Los Angeles quest to become a sure-fire No. 1 option has been a compelling narrative, but can he do it when the games matter most? Lonzo Ball, the playmaking point guard, knocked down 21 of his 36 attempts from deep over the final four Pelicans games — if that were a permanent level of consistency for the pass-first general, then that would change everything, too.
And Jrue Holiday, the remaining cornerstone following the departure of Anthony Davis, would get his first chance to anoint himself as a hero in the football-heavy city. Surely, if the Pelicans are to sneak into the altered postseason — and, dare we say it, make some noise — those would be important conditions to quantify.
Still, for all the positives, negatives and worthy storylines out there for New Orleans, not a single one matters as much as Zion Williamson does.
Since the 19-year-old phenom debuted on Jan. 22, the Pelicans went 11-9. It’s not a spectacular showing, but one dragged down by losses to the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers twice. Generally speaking, however, Williamson wasted no time acclimating to the NBA and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56.9 percent shooting.
The highlights include the 35 points he hung on the Lakers and six other occasions of 25 or more in just 19 games. Moreover, Williamson has only scored under 20 points on three occasions and shot worse than 50 percent twice — once 8-for-18 (44) in the other showing versus Los Angeles and a tough 5-for-19 effort (26.3) against the league-leading Bucks. Of course, if they hobbled into the postseason, they’d have to play those very same Lakers over and over again.
Alas, the so-called chosen one will have his fair share of questions when the season resumes. Remember that 4-for-4 explosion against the San Antonio Spurs in his career debut? Well, he’s just 2-for-9 otherwise, often going entire games without even hoisting from long range. Williamson wasn’t supposed to enter professional basketball as a three-point marksman, but that epic – and believe us, we don’t use that word lightly – introduction might have skewed the outlook.
At Duke, Williamson went just 24-for-71 (33.8 percent) from deep and it’ll be a weak link that follows him – just as it does Ben Simmons – for the time being. Free throws weren’t expected to be a major, glaring issue either as he hit on 64 percent in college and, well, he’s right around the same mark currently. If you ignore 1-for-6 and 3-for-8 showings during a couple of double-digit victories versus the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, that number looks even better too.
But enough about the few cons – of which Williamson has certainly made a focus during his quarantine workouts – what’s the ceiling? And how much should we be pulling for a postseason debut here? In a crazy campaign like this, the added bonus of Williamson-made magic might be a thread worth pulling for – even at the rejection of a Ja Morant-led foray instead.
Needless to say, if the resumed regular scenario arrives and the Pelicans have just five or so attempts to make up a 3.5 game deficit in the standings, Williamson probably wouldn’t play at all. It’s also certainly possible that the rookie was just shaking off the rust before — just ask the aforementioned Oladipo. After taking an entire year to recover from a brutal ruptured tendon, the former All-Star only averaged 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 39.1 percent shooting, all would-be career-lows.
Bet your bottom dollar, however, that with an extra 60 days of training at full speed under his belt, Oladipo will be closer to 100 percent than ever – a much-needed boost to an already well-rounded Pacers side. Could a trained-up Williamson provide the same type of edge? Upon his debut, one of the few worries that lingered – aside from re-injury – was about his perceived stamina and fatigue. Getting dropped into high-intensity workouts against adults twice your age is no joke, but try it after three months of rehab following a preseason meniscus tear.
With that context, the fact that Williams averaged 20-plus points on nearly 30 minutes per game is a superhero-level accomplishment.
At 37.2 percent, the Pelicans are the NBA’s fourth-best three-point shooting franchise – so even if Williamson doesn’t come back ready to unleash from deep, his team will be. On top of that, New Orleans’ 116.2 points per game are tied for fourth-best, too. Between Williamson, Holiday, Ball, Ingram and Redick, scoring appears to be the least of their issues headed into a restarted season.
But the defensive rating of 111.6 is a cause for concern, the second-worst standing of any team still within arm’s reach of the postseason (Portland, 113.6). Williamson has posted an encouraging mark of 103.1 on that end through 19 games, which also happens to be the highest mark of anybody employed by New Orleans right now.
In fact, Williamson’s multi-position defense and overall athleticism have already left quite the footprint. Since his debut in January, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating of 109.2 – good enough for the No. 8 spot across the entire league. The Williamson Effect is here to stay and it’ll only improve as the roster meshes and the rookie acclimates even further – that seems to be a foregone conclusion.
If you thought Williamson was impressive coming off a serious injury with no stamina, his elevated play – whether in assumed individual efficiencies or overall team impact – could push the Pelicans into new territory. Elsewhere, there are aspects of New Orleans that deserve attention but none are as postseason-transforming as the second return of Williamson – let us just hope that the NBA provides a stage for the show.