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NBA AM: Contract-Year Player Watch – Revisited

Today we revisit 15 contract-year players and how they’re faring down the stretch. Did they maintain, improve or decline?

Lang Greene

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Contract-Year Performers to Watch

Back in November, we took a look at 15 players who were on the verge of free agency this summer. Some guys were struggling on the floor to start the season with free agency looming in the near future, while others were putting together some of their best work under the pressure.

Today we take a look at these same guys and how they’re faring headed down the stretch. Did they maintain, improve or decline?

Hassan Whiteside, Center, Miami HEAT
2015-16 Salary: 
$981k
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
15 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.9 blocks, 64% FG, 8 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 13.2 points, 11.7 rebounds, 3.9 blocks, 61% FG, 54 GP 

The summer of 2016 will be loaded with talented big men and Whiteside’s name will undoubtedly be among the top mentioned. Whiteside has battled numerous injuries throughout the season and is currently coming off the bench for the HEAT, but the center has consistently produced upper tier results for a team leading the Southeast Division.

 

Al Jefferson, Center, Charlotte Hornets
2015-16 Salary: 
$13.5 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats:
14.9 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block, 54% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 12.1 points, 6 rebounds, 1 block, 49% FG, 27 GP

Jefferson entered the season after shedding significant weight to improve his conditioning. However, the veteran has appeared in just 27 contests and is currently working his way back into form while coming off the bench behind Cody Zeller. It is safe to say Jefferson is no longer the franchise changer the Hornets invested in when he first arrived to town, but if healthy he can still be a difference maker on the low block in an ever changing game.

 

Kevin Durant, Forward, Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16 Salary: 
$20.1 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
28.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3 assists, 50% FG, 8 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 28.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 51% FG, 56 GP

Durant will be this summer’s marquee free agent available. The veteran entered the campaign attempting to shake off the injury woes from a season ago and has delivered the goods, getting better as the season has progressed. The Thunder appear to be a step behind the league leading Golden State Warriors, but potentially facing Durant in a seven-game series is a difficult task for any team.

 

Rajon Rondo, Guard, Sacramento Kings
2015-16 Salary: 
$10 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 42% FG, 8 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 12 assists, 45% FG, 58 GP

Rondo was a huge question mark entering the season based on his tumultuous ending in Dallas. But the veteran has put together a stellar campaign running the show in Sacramento. There were questions on how Rondo would fit in the changing league, being a guard without a consistent three-point shot, but the guard has proven to still be one of the best playmakers in the game today.

 

Andre Drummond, Center, Detroit Pistons
2015-16 Salary: 
$3.2 million
Summer Status: 
Restricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
19.4 points, 19.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 53% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 16.7 points, 15.1 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 52% FG, 63 GP

Detroit cannot seem to fully get over the hump as a team, but Drummond snagged his first All-Star appearance and appears poised to earn his first rebounding crown at season’s end. The future is bright for the big man who has maintained a high level of play throughout the campaign.

 

Joakim Noah, Center, Chicago Bulls
2015-16 Salary: 
$13.4 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
2.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 32% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 4.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 38% FG, 29 GP

Noah is out for the season after suffering a shoulder injury. But before then, the veteran appeared in just 29 contests and averaged only 22 minutes per game, which is a far cry from his All-Star days. It remains to be seen if Noah is part of the Bulls’ long-term plans, but with the injuries piling up, a move to a bench role and his expected asking price this summer, it’s more than fair to wonder if he’ll return to Chicago.

 

Mike Conley, Guard, Memphis Grizzlies
2015-16 Salary: 
$9.6 million 
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6 assists, 39% FG, 8 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 15.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 42% FG, 56 GP

After a slow start to the campaign, the Grizzlies are once again in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase. With center Marc Gasol out for the rest of the season, Conley takes over the primary scoring role for Memphis down the stretch.

 

Zaza Pachulia, Center, Dallas Mavericks
2015-16 Salary: 
$5.2 million 
Summer Status:
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
9.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 39% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 9.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 47% FG, 58 GP

Tough. Hard-nosed. Unselfish. These attributes still apply for the veteran center. Pachulia spent the majority of the campaign averaging a double-double for the Mavericks who were desperately needing an inside presence to emerge.

 

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
2015-16 Salary: 
$12 million
Summer Status:
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
16.7 points, 8 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 49% FG, 9 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 blocks, 51% FG, 63 GP

Another All-Star campaign for one of the game’s most consistent and steady players.

 

Bradley Beal, Guard, Washington Wizards
2015-16 Salary: 
$5.7 million
Summer Status: 
Restricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
22.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 49% FG, 6 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 17.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 45% FG, 41 GP

Beal is oozing with All-Star potential and was off to a breakout campaign before injuries arose – again. So heading into the offseason, the question that continues to hover over Beal is whether the guard can stay healthy. His minutes are currently being managed by the franchise very tightly to keep the young guard healthy.

 

Marvin Williams, Forward, Charlotte Hornets
2015-16 Salary: 
$7 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
10.7 points, 9 rebounds, 1 block, 46% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 10.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1 block, 44% FG, 61 GP

Williams will always be known as the guy selected before All-Star guard Chris Paul back in 2005, but the veteran has carved out a solid career. The veteran has also been one of Charlotte’s most consistent performers this season while anchoring the club’s power forward position, averaging nearly 30 minutes per night.

 

Joe Johnson, Guard, Miami HEAT
2015-16 Salary: 
$24.9 million (bought out by Brooklyn, league minimum rest of season with Miami)
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
10.3 points, 5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 33% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Miami Only Stats: 14 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 60% FG, 5 GP

Johnson is no longer an elite player capable of carrying a team to the playoffs on his shoulders, but he figures to be an important member of Miami’s rotation once the playoffs begin.

 

Nicolas Batum, Forward, Charlotte Hornets
2015-16 Salary: 
$13.1 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
13.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 39% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 42% FG, 52 GP

Batum was hobbled by a variety of injuries last season in Portland, which impacted his production and stock. The veteran also battled injuries earlier this season but heading down the stretch, Batum is clearly showing why the Hornets believe he should be a building block for their future.

 

Eric Gordon, Guard, New Orleans Pelicans
2015-16 Salary: 
$15.5 million
Summer Status: 
Unrestricted Free Agent
(As of November 10, 2015) Stats: 
17.7 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 39% FG, 7 GP
(As of March 7, 2016) Stats: 15.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 42% FG, 45 GP

Another year, another season filled with injuries. Gordon is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a finger injury. No doubt Gordon has game, but his next team will have to assume the injury risk for the veteran.


End of the road in New Orleans for Eric Gordon?

Speaking of Gordon, it seems fitting that his tenure in New Orleans may end with the veteran guard watching from the sidelines – in a tailored suit. Gordon is in the final year of his current deal and will enter the summer as an unrestricted free agent for the first time of his career.

The guard was traded to the Pelicans prior to the 2012 campaign, in the Chris Paul blockbuster, after spending his first three seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers where he was emerging as a potential star. But his run in Pelicans has been filled with ups, downs, flashes of potential and injuries. At one point, he even signed an offer sheet with the Phoenix Suns as a restricted free agent and asked New Orleans to let him leave, but the Pelicans matched anyway.

New Orleans officially announced Gordon would miss the remainder of this season after undergoing successful surgery to repair his fractured right ring finger. During Gordon’s five seasons with the Pelicans, the veteran never appeared in more than 64 contests in any campaign and played in just 221 out of a possible 394 games since arriving to town.

While Gordon and the Pelicans’ brass have maintained a public vow to explore a long-term relationship this summer, it is widely expected that the guard will fully explore all of his options.

In 221 contests (five seasons) with the Pelicans, Gordon has averaged 15.3 points, 3.3 assists and 2.4 rebounds. In 196 contests (three seasons) with the Clippers, Gordon averaged 18.1 points, 3.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds.

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NBA Daily: Surging HEAT Must Overcome Adversity

The Miami HEAT have been hit with a number of injuries at shooting guard. Can they stay hot?

Buddy Grizzard

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The Miami HEAT have surged to fourth in the Eastern Conference on the back of a 14-5 stretch since Dec. 9, including a seven-game win streak that ended with Monday’s 119-111 loss to the Bulls in Chicago. In the loss, shooting guard Tyler Johnson got his legs tangled with Robin Lopez and appeared to suffer a serious injury.

“I was scared,” said HEAT small forward Josh Richardson, who joined his teammates in racing down the court to check on Johnson. “You never want to see a guy, whether it’s on your team or the other team, down like that. I talked to him when he was in here [the locker room] and he said he didn’t know what was up.”

Coach Erik Spoelstra told pool reporters after the game that X-rays were negative. It was initially feared to be a knee injury, but Spoelstra said the knee is okay and the ankle is the area of concern. Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel tweeted that an MRI was not deemed necessary and Johnson will be listed as doubtful for Wednesday’s game in Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, the HEAT is facing a serious shortage at shooting guard, having lost Dion Waiters to season-ending knee surgery, Rodney McGruder to a left tibia stress fracture that will likely keep him out until February, and now Johnson. Miami has applied for a $5.5 million disabled player exception after losing Waiters, according to the Sun-Sentinel. HEAT power forward James Johnson said the team will be looking for other players to step up.

“I think it’s the next guy’s gonna step up like we always do,” said Johnson. “As we have guys going down we also have guys getting back and getting back in their groove [like] Justise Winslow. Hopefully, it’s going to give another guy a chance to emerge on this team or in this league.”

Johnson added that the loss to Chicago came against a hot team and the HEAT didn’t have the right mental approach or defensive communication to slow them down.

“Our communication was lacking tonight,” said Johnson. “I think our brains rested tonight and that’s not like us. Tilt your hat to Chicago. They’re shooting the hell out the ball. They didn’t let us come back.”

Richardson echoed the theme of communication and the inability to counter a hot-shooting team.

“We weren’t communicating very well and we were not giving them enough static on the three-point line,” said Richardson. “They’ve been the number one three-point shooting team in the league for like 20 games now. They ran some good actions that we were not reacting right to.”

Spoelstra referred to a turnover-riddled close to the first half as “disgusting” basketball and agreed that the defense let his team down.

“I don’t know what our record is in HEAT franchise history when we give up 120-plus,” said Spoelstra. “I would guess that it’s probably not pretty good.”

The good news for Miami is that it can try a combination of Richardson and Winslow at the wings, while Wayne Ellington has been shooting the leather off the ball from three this season (40.5 percent on over seven attempts per game). The HEAT is the latest team to attempt to defy history by making a serious run without a superstar player. To make that a reality and remain in the upper half of the East’s playoff bracket, Miami will have to personify the “next man up” credo.

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NBA Daily: Is It Time To Cash Out On Kemba Walker?

Should the Hornets get serious about trading Kemba Walker or risk losing him in 2019 for next to nothing?

Steve Kyler

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Is It Time To Sell?

Every professional sports team at some point has to decide when its time to cash out, especially if they have a star player heading towards free agency. The Charlotte Hornets are a team teetering on this decision with star guard Kemba Walker.

Check out these UK sports books with free bets!

Now, let’s be honest for a moment. The Hornets are getting nothing of meaningful value in a trade for Walker if they decided to put him on the trade market—that’s something that will drive part of the decision.

The other part of the decision is evaluating the marketplace. This is where Charlotte may have an advantage that’s easy to overlook, which is the ability to massively overpay.

Looking ahead to the cap situations for the NBA in the summer of 2019, there doesn’t appear to be a lot worth getting excited over. While it’s possible someone unexpected goes into cap clearing mode to get space, the teams that project to have space in 2019 also project to have space in 2018, meaning some of that 2019 money could get spent in July and change the landscape even more.

But for the sake of discussion, let’s assume most of the 2019 cap space teams swing and miss on anything meaningful this summer and have flexibility the following summer. Not only will Walker be a name to watch, but guys like Boston’s Kyrie Irving, Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler, Golden State’s Klay Thompson, Dallas’ Harrison Barnes, Detroit’s Tobias Harris, San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard and Cleveland’s Kevin Love can all hit unrestricted free agency.

That’s a pretty respectable free agent class.

While most of those names will likely stay where they are, especially if their teams shower them with full max contracts as most would expect, there are a few names that might make the market interesting.

The wrinkle in all of it is the teams projected to have space. Based on what’s guaranteed today, the top of the 2019 cap space board starts with the LA Clippers.

The Clippers currently have just Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari under contract going into 2019. They will have qualifying offers on Milos Teodosic and Sam Dekker, but that’s about it. If the Clippers play their cards right, they could be looking at what could be close to $48 million in usable cap space, making them the biggest threat to poach a player because of the LA marketplace. It should be noted, though, that DeAndre Jordan’s situation will have an impact here.

The Chicago Bulls come in second on the 2019 cap space list with just $35.77 million in cap commitments. The problem for the Bulls is they are going to have to start paying their young guys, most notably Zach LaVine. That’s won’t stop the Bulls from getting to cap space, it’s simply a variable the Bulls have to address this summer that could get expensive.

The Philadelphia 76ers could come in third on the 2019 cap space list, although it seems the 76ers may go all in this summer on re-signing guard J.J. Redick and a swing at a big fish or two. If the 76ers miss, they still have an extension for Ben Simmons to consider, but that shouldn’t impact the ability to get to meaningful space.

For the Hornets, those three situations have to be a little scary, as all of themff something Charlotte can’t offer – big markets and rosters (save maybe the Clippers) with potentially higher upside.

The next group of cap space markets might get to real salary cap room, but its more likely they spend this summer like say the Houston Rockets or are equal to less desirable situations like Sacramento (similar), Dallas (has Dennis Smith Jr), Atlanta (similar) or Phoenix (likely drafts a point guard).

That brings us back to the Hornets decision making process.

If the Hornets put Walker on the market, historically, teams get pennies on the dollar for high-level players headed to free agency. If traded, its more likely than not that Walker hits free agency and goes shopping. That’s the scary part of trading for an expiring contract unless you get the player early enough for him to grow attached to the situation, most players explore options. That tends to drive down the potential return.

The Hornets can also start extension discussions with Walker and his camp this summer and it seems more likely than not the Hornets will pay Walker the full max allowed under the collective bargaining agreement, which could be a deal north of $150 million and he could ink that in July.

It’s possible that someone offers the Hornets the moon for Walker. That has happened in the past. The Celtics gave the Cavaliers a pretty solid return for Irving, a player the Cavaliers had to trade. So it’s not out of the question real offers come in, especially with the NBA trade deadline approaching, but what’s far more likely is the Hornets wait out this season and try to extend Walker this summer.

League sources at the G-League Showcase last week, doubted that any traction could be had on Walker while admitting he’s a name to watch, despite however unlikely a trade seemed today.

The challenge for the Hornets isn’t as simple as cashing out of Walker, not just because the return will be low, but also because where would the franchise go from here?

It’s easy to say re-build through the draft, but glance around the NBA today – how many of those rebuild through the draft situations are yielding competitive teams? How many of them have been rebuilding for five years or more?

Rebuilding through the draft is a painfully slow and frustrating process that usually costs you a coach or two and typically a new front office. Rebuilding through the draft is time consuming and usually very expensive.

It’s easier to rebuild around a star already in place and the fact that Walker himself laughs off the notion of him being anywhere but Charlotte is at least a good sign and the Hornets have some time before they have to really make a decision.

At some point, Charlotte has to decide when to cash out. For the Hornets, the time to make that decision on Walker might be the February 8 trade deadline. It might also be July 1, when they’ll know whether Walker would sign a max contract extension.

If he won’t commit then, the Hornets have their answer and can use the summer to try an extract a package similar to what the Cavaliers got for Irving.

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Cavs Woes Reason For Concern, But Not Dismissal

Spencer Davies takes a look at the Cavs’ issues and why we shouldn’t count them out just yet.

Spencer Davies

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The Cleveland Cavaliers are the classic case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

When they’re on, they look like the defending three-time Eastern Conference Champions. When they’re off, they look like an old team that’s worn down and, at times, disinterested—and it gets ugly.

Take this past three weeks for example. After going on a tear of 18 wins in 19 games, the Cavs have dropped eight of 11 and are falling fast. Two of those three victories in that stretch were decided by four points or less against bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the East.

So what happened? For one, the schedule got significantly tougher. Beyond just the level of competition, Cleveland has been on the road for a long while. Nine of the games in this recent down period have been away games. The only time they’ve been home was for a quick second in mid-December and a short stay for New Years.

You’ve got to think about how that affects a psyche, not only from an on-court standpoint but also in regard to spending time with loved ones and family. LeBron James brought attention to his own homesickness on Christmas Day while he was in the Bay Area instead of in Northeast Ohio to celebrate the holidays. If it gets to him, you know it’s got to get to the other players as well. These guys are human beings with lives, and the rigors of travel can wear differently on people. Luckily for them, seven of their next nine games will be at Quicken Loans Arena.

With that being said, everybody in the NBA goes through it, so it’s no excuse for how flat the Cavs have been. Anybody on the team will tell you that, too. However, when you’re figuring out rotations and re-implementing players who had injuries, it’s not easy. This is exactly why nobody should envy Tyronn Lue.

He’s being asked to make room in his rotations and adjust on the fly as Cleveland gets guys back. When they went on that month-long run, the reason they had success was that the second unit really clicked. Dwyane Wade found his niche as the maestro of the bench bunch along with any mixture of Kyle Korver, Jeff Green, Cedi Osman, Channing Frye, and Jae Crowder. Lue had found the perfect group to spell LeBron James and company.

But then, Tristan Thompson came back and, with all due respect, it messed with their flow. The spacing is no longer there for Wade or Green to penetrate because the paint is clogged. It makes it easier on opposing defenses to just stick to Korver because there aren’t any other threatening shooters on the floor (besides Osman, maybe). Worst of all, the change basically kicked Frye—who has a plus-14 net rating, according to Cleaning The Glass—out of the rotation completely.

Deciding who plays and when is a tough job. Derrick Rose is set to come back soon. Iman Shumpert is coming along as well. Lue likes a 10-man rotation, but there are at least 12 players who deserve to be on that court. We already know Rose is expected to commandeer the second unit in Wade’s absence on back-to-backs. As for if Shumpert remains in Cleveland, who knows? It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on how this situation is managed moving forward.

Isaiah Thomas, on the other hand, is somebody the Cavs have been waiting on to return since the season started. Despite LeBron being LeBron and Kevin Love having as great of an offensive year as he’s ever had on the team, the starting unit lacks an extra punch. Thomas can be that shot in the arm, and he proved that in his debut at home against Portland and on the road in Orlando. There are two snags that both he and the team are going to hit before the 29-year-old returns to his All-Star form: 1) He’s got to get his legs under him to regain the consistency in his game and 2) His teammates are going to have to adjust to playing with him.

These are not easy things to do. Remember, aside from Jae Crowder, there is nobody on Cleveland’s roster that has played with Thomas before. Add in that he’s trying to re-discover his own game and that makes for a pretty bumpy road, at least out of the gate.

Start here—put Thompson in the starting lineup. As poor of a fit he’s been on the bench, he has shown promising signs of a developing chemistry with Thomas. It’s only been four games, but he loves having a partner in the pick-and-roll game. That’s clearly where you’ll get the most production out of him and how he can thrive. He’ll provide hustle, second chance opportunities, and a semi-decent big that can at least bother some of the competition’s drives to the basket. Sliding Love over to the four might change his game a little bit, but you can still get him going in the post before giving him chances as a shooter to work him outside-in.

The resulting effect helps the second unit as well. They’ll get one of either J.R. Smith or Crowder, depending on who would be relegated there. Both of those guys can use a spark to get them going. Because of Crowder’s familiarity with Thomas, let’s say Smith gets kicked out. Maybe that gets him out of the funk he’s in? It also allows for Frye, who hasn’t seen more than 20 minutes in a game since December 4, to get re-acclimated to a group he truly helped on both ends of the floor earlier in the year.

Outside of the need to make a move at the deadline, the Cavs can figure this out. It’s understood that they’re the fourth-worst defensive team in the NBA, but they’ve gone through these kinds of ruts at this time of year, specifically since LeBron came back. There might not be statistical evidence backing up the claim of any improvement, but the track record speaks for itself.

The panic button is being hit, but pump the brakes a bit. This isn’t anything new. The pieces are a little different and things look as bad as they ever have, but in the end, the result will likely be the same.

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