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NBA AM: Expanded 2014 NBA Mock Draft

More and more of you have asked for a deeper dive into our Mock Draft s with explanations behind each pick, so here you get – every pick in the first round; explained.

Steve Kyler

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Explaining The Latest Mock Draft:  Every week all the way up to the 2014 NBA Draft we will drop what have always called our “Consensus Mock Draft”, and while some poke fun at the idea that the four personalities powering the multi-opinion mock rarely agree or have a “consensus”, the idea is what is the “consensus of the draft” and what we often find is there really isn’t one.

Recently more and more of you have asked for a deeper dive into the mock draft with explanations behind each pick. We have built some pretty elaborate draft tools to organize the mock draft process, and those tools were not built with detailed explanation in mind. We’ll work on that going forward, but for now I’ll break this out manually for you and give you at least my thoughts on the latest mock draft version.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Every week I introduce a new variable in my process. Until we really start to get a sense of which players a team is narrowing in on. I play the wrinkle game. I ask myself, what does the draft look like if this event happens. That changes from week to week. Last week my mock reflected the idea that Creighton’s Doug McDermott could go very high in the draft. Several executives at the draft Combine raved about McDermott so I played that idea through. This week it’s UCLA’s Zach LaVine. There has been some hype around LaVine. It’s doubtful he goes in the top ten, but this week’s draft plays out as if he does.

If you wonder why I do it this way, it’s because this is how NBA teams do it. This is how teams prepare for every eventuality. Believing that one guy has to go number one and the next guy absolutely has to go number two, is how you end up unprepared on draft night. Teams play through every draft scenario possible, so I try and do the same with my mock drafts.

With that in mind, here is this week’s mock:

#1 – Cleveland Cavaliers

Andrew Wiggins Kansas SG/SF 6’8″ 197 lbs.  19 years old

There is real chance that Joel Embiid is going to go number one. Word is that his agents are going to allow the Cavs to conduct a thorough medical exam on him and if that comes back as clean as his camp is saying he could go number one overall. The problem here is I doubt that it comes back completely clear. From there I think the Cavaliers and new General manager David Griffin go with a can’t-miss athlete like Wiggins to shore up their roster and pass on the risk.

#2 – Milwaukee Bucks

Joel Embiid Kansas C 7’0″ 240 20

Where I see the Cavs passing on questions surrounding Embiid’s health, the Bucks have several bigs on the roster and they can take the chance on him. The talent level is too high and the Bucks are in a situation where they can take a risk. If it pans out they get a really good player. If it does not they get the chance to pick in the lottery next year. Unless Embiid’s back gets flagged as requiring the worst case surgery – spinal fusion – I seriously doubt that the Bucks pass on Embiid at number two. Either they pick him or they trade the No. 2 to a team that would. Two dark horse picks here are Jabari Parker from Duke and Australia’s Dante Exum. Word from Chicago is the front office would like to take Exum and build around him knowing they’d be in the lottery again next year, so it really may come down to what ownership will approve.

#3 – Philadelphia 76ers

Dante Exum Australian Institute of Sport PG/SG 6’6″ 196 18

The 76ers have been unpredictable for the last year, so I do not expect that to change in this draft. The smart money says take Jabari Parker and the 76ers very well may. But if you look at how the 76ers see the world, they have a long-term vision that is built around steady progress. The fact is that 76ers head coach Brett Brown has some history with Exum and that Exum could conceivably play with rookie of the year Michael Carter-Williams. The temptation of Exum’s ceiling may be too much for the 76ers to pass on. The pick is a little unconventional, but so was trading Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel and drafting Carter-Williams last year.

#4 – Orlando Magic

Jabari Parker Duke SF/PF 6’8″ 241 19

Assuming Exum is off the board that leaves Orlando with Jabari Parker. There is chance the pick is Marcus Smart, or there is a bigger chance that the Magic take Parker, and see if Utah wants him as bad as it seems they may. Drafting Parker might be a solid addition in Orlando, but it would create massive logjam at the three spot for the Magic, so drafting and keeping Parker likely means Mo Harkless or Tobias Harris get moved in the offseason. Point guard is absolutely the biggest need in Orlando, but playing broker with Parker might yield them multiple assets if the Exum is off the board.

#5 – Utah Jazz

Julius Randle Kentucky PF 6’9″ 250 19

It seems likely that the Jazz are trading down with this pick, mainly because there is nothing there for the Jazz that makes sense at number five. If the Jazz can swing a deal for Jabari Parker the belief is they would, but assuming they don’t move the pick Julius Randle may be the best talent for their roster. There are some that would suggest that sliding Derrick Favors over to the five spot and playing a frontcourt of Favors and Randle could yield bigger dividends than a the current Enes Kanter-Favors front court. There is a chance that Marcus Smart goes here as well, it would give the Jazz a very small backcourt, but Smart is a relentless defender and could bring some leadership and maturity to the process. Drafting Smart would be a best talent available scenario, although Randle may make more sense in the long run.

#6 – Boston Celtics

Aaron Gordon Arizona PF 6’9″ 220 18

If Randle is here, he is likely the Celtics guy but with him off the board the Celtics likely turn to Noah Vonleh or Aaron Gordon. There is a sense in NBA circles that the Celtics are smitten with Gordon and view him as a possible star, especially paired with Rajon Rondo. Gordon at number six might be a bit high, but we have seen the Celtics do this before, where they zone in on a guy and simply take him when they can get him and there is a sense that Gordon is the Celtics’ guy if Randle is off the board. Vonleh could be an interesting pick here as well as would Dario Saric. The Celtics are said to be high on Saric and Saric seems to be high on the Celtics.

#7 – LA Lakers

Marcus Smart Oklahoma State PG 6’3″ 227 20

There are a couple of interesting options here for the Lakers, including Noah Vonleh and Dario Saric. However, Smart offers a ready to play point guard that could thrive playing with Kobe Bryant. Smart’s shot is not nearly as bad as its made out to be but with a season of Bryant in his ear Smart likely improves in every facet of his game and that fact that he is a ‘get-after-it’ defender likely makes the pick a solid one for the Lakers.

#8 – Sacramento Kings

Noah Vonleh Indiana PF/C 6’9″ 247 18

The Kings want to trade this pick, so there is a real chance that the number eight belongs to someone else after the draft is done. Vonleh is likely the pick; the question is where does he end up? If the Kings have to keep the pick Vonleh doesn’t necessarily fit the roster, but he is the best talent on the board. Saric could be an option here as he fills a more immediate need, but it’s unclear if Saric would come to the NBA this year is he drops to number eight, so there is some risk.

#9 – Charlotte Hornets

Zach LaVine UCLA SG 6’6″ 181 19

This is likely really high for LaVine, but if there is a team that might take the gamble on the best athlete in the draft it’s likely the Hornets. There is a real chance this pick ends up with someone else. The Hornets have eyes for Orlando’s Arron Afflalo and if some combination of the ninth pick and a roster player gets the Magic off the dime the Hornets would do it. In this week’s draft, LaVine needed to go top ten for the variable to work, and the Hornets would be the fit if he is indeed the top-ten talent some have tried to paint him as. For the record, I think James Young, Rodney Hood or Adrien Payne could end up here as well.

#10 – Philadelphia 76ers

Dario Saric Cibona Zagreb SF/PF 6’10” 223 20

At this point Philly is playing with house money. There is a chance they draft a player that comes to camp with the tenth pick or they may very well go with Saric as a ‘draft-and-stash’. Given how many second round picks the 76ers hold, there is always a fear of bringing in too many rookies into training camp, and in this case with Noel in effect being a rookie, the third pick and at least one of the second round picks; bringing in a mature player like Saric or allowing him to stay abroad makes more sense for Philly given how many young guys they may have the rights to. If the 76ers spend this pick on a player for this upcoming season, Adrien Payne, James Young and Nik Stauskas all become interesting options.

#11 – Denver Nuggets

James Young Kentucky SG/SF 6’7″ 213 18

This is where the picks start to become more about talent than fit. Young is an explosive talent that could fit in nicely in Denver. This could also be were Nik Stauskas or international big man Jusuf Nurkic lands. A dark horse here might be Doug McDermott, mainly because he can contribute right away for a Nuggets team that wants to be in the postseason next year.

#12 – Orlando Magic

Tyler Ennis Syracuse PG 6’2″ 182 19

Assuming the Magic have not traded their way into a higher pick, this is where they get their point guard. Ennis presents a ready to play type of guard that can run a team. Paired with last year’s second overall pick Victor Oladipo, the Magic get a solid backcourt tandem. If the Magic are able to pull off a deal and land Smart in trade, this could be where guys like Rodney Hood, K.J. McDaniels and P.J. Hairston get a long look.

#13 – Minnesota Timberwolves

Adreian Payne Michigan State PF 6’10” 239 23

At some point he Timberwolves are trading Kevin Love, so they are going to need a four man. Payne isn’t nearly the All-Star caliber four that Love is, but he could play off the bench behind Love, bring some physicality and toughness. He is ready to play as one of the older guys in the draft. For the Wolves, they want to be in the postseason next year and Payne would be a solid addition to the frontcourt. This could also be where Hood, McDaniels or Stauskas land as well, especially if the plan is to pack Kevin Martin into whatever Love deal the Wolves decide to do.

#14 – Phoenix Suns

Doug McDermott Creighton PF 6’8″ 218 22

This is absolutely about the best offensive talent on the board. McDermott can play from the bench for the Suns and he is polished enough to get minutes under Jeff Hornacek. There are a lot of options Phoenix could consider including “draft-and-stash” with Jusuf Nurkic. Rodney Hood would be an excellent fit as would K.J. McDaniels. A real dark horse here might be Nik Stauskas, although they may not have a lot of minutes at the off-guard spot.

#15 – Atlanta Hawks

Rodney Hood Duke SF 6’8″ 208 21

Hood is a knock down shooter and he’d fit in nicely with what the Hawks have going. If you think about Hood on one side and Kyle Korver on the other, the floor is going to open way up for guys like Paul Millsap and Al Horford. There are too many reasons why this pick works for the Hawks; the only problem is if he is gone. If he is there at 15 that would be hard to pass on unless they opted for Nik Stauskas, who is more of a two guard.

#16 – Chicago Bulls

Elfrid Payton La Lafayette PG 6’4″ 185 20

Sixteen may be a little high for Payton, but the Bulls need a backup point guard and Payton has enough promise to work, but needs enough development time that playing smaller minutes behind Derrick Rose won’t be a problem. The Bulls could look for perimeter scoring here, but in terms of best talent that solves the biggest need Payton could be that guy. Rodney Hood would likely be the pick here if Atlanta passes. Stauskas could also been an option here as well.

#17 – Boston Celtics

Nik Stauskas Michigan SG 6’6″ 207 20

If Stauskas is still here at 17, there is too much that works for this not to be the pick. He is knock down shooter and would fit in perfectly with Brad Stevens and how the Celtics want to play. This pick also gives them options if Avery Bradley’s free agency gets silly. P.J. Hairston likely gets a look here as does Clint Capela.

#18 – Phoenix Suns

Jusuf Nurkic Cedevita C 6’11” 280 19

This is likely a “draft-and-stash” move as Nurkic just signed a new extension. Unless he went really high in the draft he likely is playing abroad next season. The Suns would have some other options, but considering the log jams they already have deferring this pick into next season or beyond with a big like Jusuf might be the smart play. Some names to look at here that could make sense are Clint Capela, Walter Tavares or Kristaps Porzingis. Nurkic might be the best of the bunch. This is also a pick that could get traded.

#19 – Chicago Bulls

Gary Harris Michigan State SG 6’4″ 205 19

It is very likely this pick is traded. However, the best talent on the board will be Gary Harris. The word on Harris is very hot and cold. Some teams like him a lot, some teams are not interested at all. If the Bulls have to keep this pick Harris might fit, but this would again be drafting the best talent on the board. There are a couple of other options that might get play here and that is Kristaps Porzingis and Clint Capela. Two dark horses here might be T.J. Warren and Jarnell Stokes, especially if the Bulls are planning to move on from Carlos Boozer either by trade or Amnesty cut. Warren and Stokes would be interesting if Nikola Mirotic is staying aboard for another year.

#20 – Toronto Raptors

Clint Capela Chalon PF 6’11” 222 20

It is easy to say put the Euro in Toronto, but this really would be best talent on the board and he does fill a roster need too. Its unclear if Capela comes over if drafted at 20, but he would be a solid fit with the Raptors, especially developing off the bench. The Raptors could also play the “draft-and-stash” game and look at Kristaps Porzingis or Walter Tavares. A couple of dark horse picks could be Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels and Cleanthony Early.

#21 – Oklahoma City Thunder

Kyle Anderson UCLA SF 6’8″ 230 20

This is a project pick. There is a lot to like about Anderson, but he is not an elite level athlete and he is not someone you could lean on right away. The Thunder are pretty good about having vision on their draft picks and this might be the best talent on the board. A couple of other options here are T.J. Warren, P.J. Hairston, K.J. McDaniels and Glenn Robinson III.

#22 – Memphis Grizzlies

P.J. Hairston Tex Legends SG 6’5″ 229 21

Hairston fits the Grizzlies culture in so many ways and with Chris Wallace likely making the pick, this is exactly the kind of player the Grizzlies covet. This would create a bit of a long-jam with Courtney Lee and last year’s second rounder Jamal Franklin, but Hairston might be the best talent on the board. There is a chance K.J. McDaniels and Glenn Robinson III could land here too. The Grizz want perimeter scoring.

#23 – Utah Jazz

K.J. McDaniels Clemson SF 6’6″ 196 21

If the Jazz keep this pick (they may very well use this to move up), McDaniels solves a lot of problems. He is a decent outside shooter. He is a solid athlete and he is a great defender that blocks shots and rebounds. As far as best talent on the board McDaniels might be the guy if he is still here. Other options here include Mitch McGary, Cleanthony Early and Walter Tavares.

#24 – Charlotte Hornets

Jerami Grant Syracuse SF 6’8″ 214 20

This is where Charlotte might defer their pick by drafting an international player or trade out of this spot in favor of something in the second round to avoid the guaranteed contract. If the Hornets keep the pick, Grant likely fill a need and would be a “best on the board” type selection. This could also be where Mitch McGary, Cleanthony Early or Jarnell Stokes lands.

#25 – Houston Rockets

T.J. Warren N.C. State SF/PF 6’8″ 220 20

This might not be the ideal pick for the Rockets, but they have a long track record of drafting 6’8 guys and figuring out where they fit. Warren might be a good addition to the roster, but this one is really about best talent available. DeAndre Daniels, Jarnell Stokes, Dwight Powell and Johnny O’Bryant could get long looks here too.

#26 – Miami HEAT

Shabazz Napier Connecticut PG 6’1″ 175 22

The HEAT are likely losing Mario Chalmers to free agency and while Norris Cole is likely taking over the starting spot, the HEAT need a reserve guard and Napier may be too good to pass on. The HEAT very rarely draft for need and in most cases they defer their first round picks into the second round as much as possible. Because they need the talent and Napier solves the problem, he might be the best option. Word is the HEAT are also very high on Mitch McGary, Cleanthony Early and Patric Young; all three could land here if still available.

#27 – Phoenix Suns

Kristaps Porzingis Sevilla PF 7’0″ 220 18

If the Suns do not trade this pick, this is a draft-and-stash. The Suns are highly unlikely to bring more than two rookies into camp this year, so at some point they have to either defer picks by drafting international guys or they have to trade out of them. Assuming they are stuck with the pick, Porzingis is the best talent on the board. Other options here include Bogdan Bogdanovic, Walter Tavares and Nikola Jokic.

#28 – LA Clippers

Cleanthony Early Wichita State SF 6’7″ 209 23

The Clips have been searching for help at the small forward spot all year and Early could be the best talent and best option at small forward on the board. There are a few other options that likely get some play here and those include Glenn Robinson III, Dwight Powell, Mitch McGary and Jordan Adams. Early may present the best solution to the problem and he should be able to contribute right away.

#29 – Oklahoma City Thunder

Jarnell Stokes Tennessee PF 6’8″ 263 20

If Stokes is still here, this represents the best talent that solves the biggest need. The Thunder needs someone behind Serge Ibaka and as much as the team hoped it would be Perry Jones III, they have been reluctant to go to him even when the situation might call for it. Stokes is a beast physically, a decent shooter out to the three point line and would solve an immediate need. Other options here in the best talent available department include Glenn Robinson III, Dwight Powell, Mitch McGary and Jordan Adams. There are also a couple of solid “draft and stash” candidates in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Walter Tavares and Nikola Jokic

#30 – San Antonio Spurs

Walter Tavares Gran Canaria C 7’3″ 265 22

The Spurs are the hardest team in the NBA to project picks for and with them sitting dead last in the first round they could go any number of direction. Historically the Spurs have drafted young international guys and stashed them aboard. They did it last year with Livio Jean-Charles and Tavares has San Antonio Spurs written all over him. There are a few others that make sense here including Bogdan Bogdanovic, Mitch McGary and Jordan Adams, but if history holds true expect the Spurs to “draft and stash” a super upside talent and Tavares may be the best on the board.

So there you have it, the logic behind all of my picks this week. The next Consensus Mock Draft will drop next Wednesday and we’ll do this thing all over again.

If you don’t agree, want to argue my thought process or just want to log your picks or protest, drop your thought in the comment box below.

More Twitter:  Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @TheRocketGuy, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible @TommyBeer, @JabariDavisNBA , @NateDuncanNBA , @MokeHamilton , @JCameratoNBA and @YannisNBA.

Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.

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Mock Drafts

2019 NBA Consensus Mock Draft – Ver 4.0

Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ experts take a look at the draft class and weigh in on what they are seeing and hearing in the march up to the 2019 NBA Draft.

Basketball Insiders

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Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers will break down the latest news and notes surrounding the 2019 NBA Draft. With every new version, you’ll see an updated mock draft that reflects how each writer sees the draft landscape based on the latest news, workouts, and information from the pre-draft process as well as a notebook, outlining each writers’ thoughts, observations and reporting on the draft.

Keep in mind; we are trying to find commonalities, which is why it is called the Consensus. The writers involved do not see each other’s selections until these are posted. It is done deliberately to make sure each writer is not influencing the others.

As this process plays out, the mocks will evolve, so look for a new Consensus each Wednesday, all the way up to draft day on June 20th.

Here is this week’s Consensus Mock:

Version: 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0

Spencer’s Notebook: With the NBA Draft Lottery set and the 2019 NBA Combine in the books from Chicago, there are some significant changes to my mock draft.

Brandon Clarke tested out at the top of his position with a 34-inch standing vertical, a 40.5-inch max vertical and a 3.15-second three-quarter court sprint. He was already a lock to go anywhere from the lottery to the early 20s before the event, so it’s clear that this performance should vault the Gonzaga forward leaped into the top 10.

Outside of the physical portion of the Combine, the rumor mill was churning. We learned of multiple promises for players going to teams, including one about Darius Garland being rumored as the Los Angeles Lakers guy once he left the combine. However, it is the Phoenix Suns that many also believe are interested in the Vanderbilt product with the sixth pick.

Another situation to monitor is the New York Knicks and the third overall pick. Everything seems to be hinging on what happens with the Anthony Davis situation in New Orleans. The Pelicans’ new vice president of basketball operations, David Griffin, would prefer the All-Star big man to stick around once they bolster the team’s core of Jrue Holiday and himself with rookie sensation Zion Williamson.

An ultimatum will be extended to Davis—if he changes his mind about wanting out, they’ll bury the hatchet. If he sticks to his original request, Griffin will begin looking for trade partners.

The Knicks would like to choose the second scenario. Their main focus is on adding marquee free agents to usher in a new era of basketball at Madison Square Garden. If the rumors are true and Kevin Durant and/or Kyrie Irving come to town, they probably won’t want to play with a rookie in the chase for a title. Offering the third pick along with a combination of their young talents—Dennis Smith Jr., Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, Allonzo Trier—could be a package worthwhile for New Orleans in the Davis talks.

If Davis is moved elsewhere—Boston is a destination often mentioned with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and picks or if the Pels persuade him to stick around for one more year before his free agency period hits in the summer of 2020, New York could be stuck in a predicament. RJ Barrett should be the pick at three, yet there are members of the team’s coaching staff who are enamored by another highly touted Duke prospect—Cameron Reddish.

The Cleveland Cavaliers met with Reddish last Friday, but at the same time, their front office is a big fan of Barrett’s. Should the Davis scenario not go the way the Knicks would hope, maybe the two could work out a deal to swap picks? Cleveland does have two first-round picks (five and 26) and quite a few assets to offer. New York is reportedly interested in moving Frank Ntilikina as well.

The trade idea is purely that, but it almost sets up perfect, doesn’t it?

Jesse’s Notebook: The NBA Lottery certainly shook things up last week with the New Orleans Pelicans winning the Zion Williamson sweepstakes and the Los Angeles Lakers landing the fourth overall pick. With the Lottery and Combine behind us, there is a bit more consistency in most mock draft boards.

The player I am keeping an eye on right now is Cam Reddish. Reddish didn’t have a standout freshman season at Duke, but his combination of athleticism, skill, and upside make him an intriguing prospect. I would not be surprised if a team with a top pick takes the risk that his game is well-tailored for the NBA and his lone season at Duke is not indicative of the player he will become. There is also a risk that Reddish slips a bit on draft night, but that is a less likely scenario in my opinion. For more on Reddish, take a few minutes to read this insightful article from Basketball Insiders writer Shane Rhodes:.

Drew’s Notebook: The NBA Draft combine is complete, and we’ve walked away with a few key learnings:

First of all, it appears that some promises were made to a select few prospects including Darius Garland and Rui Hachimura. This sets a floor for them and their camp. While it’s not entirely clear which teams made them promises, in some instances, it’s pretty intuitive (e.g., PG-desperate Suns probably ensured Garland’s camp that they’d nab him at six).

The guy who I’m most enamored with based on the combine is Luka Samanic. Samanic is a 6-foot-10, 227-pound forward with a 6-foot-10.5 inch wingspan. He demonstrated a nice shooting stroke last week at the combine and proved he can stay in front of quicker guards for periods via the 5-on-5 scrimmage. While he’s incredibly unlikely to break into the lottery, I see Samanic climbing into the late first-round.

Bol Bol continues to be an enigma. His wingspan is impressive, and we know he can stroke. But at 7-foot-3 and 209 pounds, will he be able to impact that gain enough from a physicality standpoint and/or stay healthy? Those are huge questions for whichever team selects him – which will likely be team with a relatively high lottery selection.

I was discouraged by Naz Reid registering a 14% body fat percentage (highest of all prospects) –especially since he was someone I pegged as a sleeper in the draft. Now his position as a first-round draft pick may be in question. However, I still feel that Reid’s ability to shoot threes mixed with his 7-foot-3 wingspan spells huge potential. This should be viewed as an opportunity to snatch up a strong prospect at a lower spot considering NBA training regimens.

Tyler Herro represents another challenge for front offices. His 6-foot-3 wingspan was a bit of a surprise, and it presents a slight problem for whoever ultimately selects him – albeit one that can worked around given the right personnel. Fortunately for Herro, it was assumed by many that his floor is a three-point shooting specialist. So while his wingspan presents a physical limitation, he wasn’t assumed to be an above average athlete/attacker/defender anyway. He’ll still probably be a top-20 pick given the perpetual need for shooters.

Finally, the big news (pun intended) out of the combine was Tacko Fall. Fall is 7-foot-7, 289 pounds with an 8-foot-2 wingspan and a 10-foot-2 standing reach. Fall is definitely on the raw side of all serious prospects, but his mobility and skill set are fairly impressive considering his size. He is not a serious consideration for any team in the first round; however, it will be interesting to see who roles the dice on Fall in the mid-to-late-second round. While Fall and Mitchell Robinson are ENTIRELY indifferent players, teams may look back at passing on Robinson and think twice before passing up another unique big man.

With the draft less than a month away, teams have already begun ramping up their workout schedules. We will learn a lot more in the next few weeks. And we’ll probably be fooled by a number of smoke screens, too. Stay tuned!

Steve’s Notebook: With NBA teams now past the Combine and well into Pro Days, there has been a tremendous amount of chatter on where some players may have early draft commitments, and how teams may really feel about some of the notable names.

It’s important to clarify the role commitments have in the draft process. There are two kinds of commitments teams will offer a prospect, one is the hard fast promise. The promise is exactly what you think it would be, a team zeros in the player they want and offers to select that player with their pick removing the pressure and uncertainty of the draft process in exchange for the player shutting down workouts and access for other teams. Players and their agents take a little risk in trusting the team will keep their word, which is why teams typically shy away from promises unless its exactly the player they covet.

The other type of commitment teams make is what’s commonly referred to as the floor – the lowest level a player will likely fall. Teams tend to make these kinds of commitments to players they like, but understand that they may go higher, but in the event the player falls, they know they have a landing spot.

Why does either side care about all this? For teams it is hard to plan around uncertainty, there are so many things that can happen around the draft and knowing they can secure a player they want, means they can move on the seeing what else can be done to improve the roster or gain assets. For players, it allows them to lighten the workout load and possibility for an injury, and start focusing on their NBA careers. It’s always possible a team can grab a player earlier than expected, but for the most part teams and agents work fairly hard to make sure promises are kept.

With all of that in mind here is what’s being talked about in NBA circles:

Word is Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland received a promise in the top ten, with most believing is was the Phoenix Suns that made the promise with their sixth overall pick. League sources said it’s possible that the Lakers still consider Garland with the fourth pick, but the prevailing thought is Garland will not workout or meet with anyone below the sixth pick.

Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura is also believed to have received a draft promise in the top 12, with the Minnesota Timberwolves believed to have been the team to make the promise with their 11th overall pick. The problem with promises outside of the top five or six picks is the domino effect of players falling out of the expected range, but at this point, it seems Hachimura is headed towards being a lottery pick.

Oregon’s Bol Bol is something of a draft enigma. According to a team drafting in the mid-teens, they do not expect he’ll be on the board when they drafted, and there was a belief that he was the first name on the board for the Atlanta Hawks with their eighth overall pick. The Hawks hold two picks in the top 10, so they have the luxury of taking a gamble on Bol. While Bol doesn’t seem to have a promise, there is a belief one of the teams with two first round picks would grab him, simply because his upside is off the charts.

Washington’s Matisse Thybulle was believed to have a promise from the Oklahoma City Thunder at 21, however, a few days after the Combine wrapped, the tone on that promise changed. The current chatter has the Celtics making that promise with their 20th overall selection. One league source said that Thybulle checked all of the advanced analytic boxes that the Thunder covet in a player, so it will be interesting to see if the Thunder try and jump in front of the Celtics to nab a player they are believed to be very high on.

There are a couple of other players to watch as the workout process continues:

Boston College’s Ky Bowman has been doing very well in individual workouts, and there is talk that he may have played his way in the solid second round situation, if not a late first. Bowman has had some solid workouts and seems to be a name to watch as the process plays out.

Duke’s Cam Reddish had his pro day in Phoenix yesterday, and while he only did one on zero work, there are many in NBA circles that believe he’ll be a Paul George-type NBA player, and that he is firmly in the hunt in the top 10.

Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter skipped the annual NBA Draft combine, but there is a belief that he is high on the board for the LA Lakers with the fourth overall pick and the Cavaliers with the fifth overall pick. Hunter seems to be a player whose draft stock is improving simply be being absent.

Things on the team front will heat up the first week of June, that’s when teams are expected to start seeing lottery level players in their gyms, and that’s when will really lock in on players.

Who are these guys anyway? Steve Kyler is the Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last 21 years. Jesse Blancarte is a Senior NBA Writer and Deputy Editor for Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last five years. Spencer Davies is also a Senior NBA Writer and Deputy Editor for Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last three years. Drew Maresca is an NBA Writer for Basketball Insiders and is finishing his first season covering the NBA.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @TommyBeer, @jblancartenba, @SpinDavies, @JamesB_NBA, @MattJohnNBA, @DrewMaresca, @JordanHicksNBA, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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Mock Drafts

2019 NBA Consensus Mock Draft – Ver 3.0

Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ experts take a look at the draft class and weigh in on what they are seeing and hearing in the march up to the 2019 NBA Draft.

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The 2019 NBA Draft lottery produced some unexpected results. Here are the results:

Version: 1.0 | 2.0

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @TommyBeer, @jblancartenba, @SpinDavies, @JamesB_NBA, @MattJohnNBA, @DrewMaresca, @JordanHicksNBA, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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Mock Drafts

2019 NBA Consensus Mock Draft – Ver 2.0

Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ experts take a look at the draft class and weigh in on what they are seeing and hearing in the march up to the 2019 NBA Draft.

Basketball Insiders

Published

on

Each week, four of Basketball Insiders’ top writers will break down the latest news and notes surrounding the 2019 NBA Draft. Each week you’ll see an updated mock draft that reflects how each writer sees the draft landscape based on the latest news, workouts, and information from the pre-draft process as well as a notebook, outlining each writers’ thoughts, observations and reporting on the draft.

Keep in mind; we are trying to find commonalities, which is why it is called the Consensus. The writers involved do not see each other’s selections until these are posted. It is done deliberately to make sure each writer is not influencing the others.

As this process plays out, the mocks will evolve, so look for a new Consensus each Wednesday, all the way up to draft day on June 20th.

Here is this week’s Consensus Mock:



Version: 1.0

Jesse’s Notebook: The NBA Combine is set to take place next week with 66 players expected to attend. Many of these players are going to scrimmage, take measurements, go through a variety of drills, and interview with teams. The Combine should provide a good amount of intel on these prospects that either isn’t available yet or has thus far been overlooked. This is also the time when teams will start giving more clues about their thoughts on certain prospects, what their respective teams are looking for and who is catching the attention of several teams. Oftentimes prospects start setting themselves apart and climbing team draft boards based on their performance at the Combine. On the flip side, some prospects are likely to start falling down team boards as new information is discovered. However, this is also a time where some players may get too much hype based on their measurements and other data points (let’s not forget the hype surrounding Luke Babbit after the 2010 Combine).

Mock draft boards are already all over the place and are sure to start shuffling even more as we move towards the Combine. However, the overall picture should start to become a bit clearer as prospects interview with teams, receive feedback, and as front office executives start making soft commitments to players and leaking out information about the players they have an eye on.

Spencer’s Notebook: In version two of our consensus mock draft, my top nine draft picks stayed the same as they were last week, but there was some slight tweaking otherwise.

As Steve said in the inaugural mock, predicting selections outside of the top slots is difficult. A good amount of teams could be picking for their need first and foremost rather than having a simple “best player available” approach. The picture will be a little clearer next week when we learn the results of the NBA Draft Lottery on May 14.

My most notable observation—there is an abundance of talented wings, raw and polished, in this 2019 NBA Draft class. Younger players such as RJ Barrett, Jarrett Culver, Cameron Reddish and De’Andre Hunter have the tools to succeed. However, finding the right organization to put those respective skill sets to use in the correct manner will be imperative to every one of them to reach their full potential.

Playoff teams are going to be able to add the more pro-ready prospects at that position, with multiple upperclassmen forwards who may be able to help right away – regardless of what team they end up with. Rui Hachimura, Cameron Johnson, Brandon Clarke, Matisse Thybulle and Grant Williams all fit the bill in that sense. While collegiate experience hardly compares to that of the NBA, the maturation of playing the game longer puts these guys ahead of the curve if you were to ask me.

Drew’s Notebook:Not much has changed since last week. The most noise we’ve heard in the last seven days is around accepted invitations to the NBA Draft Combine, as well as workouts. But fear not NBA fans, the Draft Lottery takes place this Tuesday with the Combine beginning the very next day. Things will definitely heat up soon!

With that being said, I spent a lot of time looking at the top teams in terms of draft order and thought a lot about their needs: the Bulls, Suns and Wizards could all be interested in adding a lead guard. This is, of course, an exercise in futility because we have not yet landed on a final draft order. Never the less, this led me bump Darius Garland up a few spots. I think he is extremely NBA-ready. And while a little undersized, he has an IT factor that most prospects at his level do not possess (excluding Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and RJ Barrett). Garland could develop into Kyrie Irving-type of player, or he could end up closer to D.J. Augustin. But I really like his confidence and how he moves with the ball. And until the Draft Lottery dictates the final order on 5/14, I’ve got to arrange prospects by my feelings on overall talent.

Another guy I plan to plan to study more closely is Sekou Doumbouya. I was compelled to drop him a few spots after watching more film of him over the weekend, but his youth (18 years old) and perceived versatility indicate that he’ll grow into an effective NBA player, assuming he’s given the proper time and resources to develop. And potential is just as important (if not more) as refined skill. I’m excited to see what, if anything, we can learn about Doumbouya at the Combine.

Tuesday, May 14 can’t get here soon enough.

Steve’s Notebook: The invite list of the 2019 NBA Draft Combine is out, and 66 players accepted the NBA’s invite to take part in the NBA’s annual draft showcase event. It’s important to note that there are three types of invitations; the first is extended to those players expected to go in the top 20, which does not require participation in the on-court portion of the Combine. Those players will undergo medical testing and face to face interviews with teams. The next group will do the same medical and interviews but are also expected to participate in the on-court portion as well. The third tier are those players willing to be last minute alternates in the event players pull out.

This year the NBA is holding a G-League event for draft-eligible players, just prior to next week’s Combine, the NBA has pledged the possibility of a full Combine invite to players that stand out among those additional 40 plus players that were invited to participate.

Why is a Combine invite important? In a typical year, more than 70 percent of players invited to the Combine end up being drafted, making the Combine list a pretty solid barometer on who is legitimately in the draft discussion.

There are two notable players that declined the NBA’s invitations, the first being Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura and Washington’s Matisse Thybulle.

While it is not uncommon for players to bypass the Combine, especially if the players is all but assured to be drafted, it also usually signifies a player may have a draft commitment they are comfortable with making the dog and pony show of the Combine less desirable.

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for Tuesday, May 14th, with the Combine itself getting underway on Wednesday with face to face team interviews.

Who are these guys anyway? Steve Kyler is the Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last 21 years. Jesse Blancarte is a Senior NBA Writer and Deputy Editor for Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last five years. Spencer Davies is also a Senior NBA Writer and Deputy Editor for Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA for the last three years. Drew Maresca is an NBA Writer for Basketball Insiders and is finishing his first season covering the NBA.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @TommyBeer, @jblancartenba, @SpinDavies, @JamesB_NBA, @MattJohnNBA, @DrewMaresca, @JordanHicksNBA, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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