Grading the NBA Draft is an annual tradition that virtually every media outlet does. For years, we have taken a somewhat different approach to grading the draft, mainly because a drafted player’s results aren’t truly known for years. While it’s easy to say, ‘This guys is a surefire star,’ there is no way to really know that for several years.
With that in mind I tend to apply a bit of a different value structure to my draft grades. I base my grades on the following:
a.) Did the team draft the best possible talent on the board?
b.) Did the team solve an immediate roster need?
c.) Can the selected player contribute right away?
Let’s jump into it:
Round 1: Taurean Prince (12), DeAndre Bembry (21)
Round 2: Isaia Cordinier (44)
The biggest move for the Hawks occurred prior to the draft when they dealt away Jeff Teague for the 12th pick, which they turned into Taurean Prince.
Prince gives them a truly ready-to-play option at small forward and a fairly decent shooter as well. This was good value for the pick, it solves an immediate roster problem and he can play right away – and likely will for the Hawks.
Bembry was interesting. There may have been a few better options on the board at No. 21 worth looking at, but Bembry is an NBA-ready player. It’s unclear where he fits in the rotation, but he could add solid playing and shooting from the bench. Overall, this is a fairly decent selection.
Isaia Cordinier at No. 44 is not a factor this year. Cordinier is an athletic prospect with some upside, but he was likely a draft-and-stash. Considering what was there at No. 44, the Hawks could have done a little better. But at that point in the draft, especially with a draft-and-stash prospect, this wasn’t bad.
Round 1: Jaylen Brown (3), Guerschon Yabusele (16), Ante Zizic (23)
Round 2: Demetrius Jackson (45), Ben Bentil (51), Abdel Nader (58)
This was not the way Celtics fans had hoped the draft would play out, but when you can’t find takers for all the picks, you eventually have to use them and Boston did a good job.
Jaylen Brown was Danny Ainge’s guy from very early in this process. There was a sense the C’s were drafting Kris Dunn to hold him hostage for additional assets, but in the end the C’s went with their plan and drafted Brown. He is a super athlete with a very high basketball IQ. He’ll improve in time as a shooter, but is a very good piece for the Celtics. In terms of value, there may have been a few better options on the board so the C’s get dinged a little there, but in terms of solving roster problems, he adds depth at small forward and he can play right away.
Guerschon Yabusele is a monster. He’s big and athletic and was a rising star among NBA teams during the final weeks of the draft process. Like Terry Rozier last year, if the C’s wanted him they had to take him at No. 16 or he’d have been gone by No. 23. There is tremendous upside to his game and while there were a few better prospects on the board, the C’s did pretty well here. He may or may not play this year, so that’s to be determined. As for roster need, he does not slot into an immediate hole at this time.
Ante Zizic was also a nice get for the C’s, as he is one of the best rounders in the draft he was considered the top Euro player after Dragan Bender by most NBA teams, so that’s a ton of value for the C’s at 23. Like Yabusele, he could play abroad next season, which impacts the grade a little. As for roster need, if he plays he could slot in at center and that’s an areas the C’s need to improve on.
Demetrius Jackson took a pretty big tumble and the C’s don’t have a need for him anywhere, as they are loaded at the guard spots. It’s hard to imagine that Jackson makes the active roster and may end up spending the bulk of his rookie year in the D-League. There was value to be had in the pick, but the last thing the C’s needed was another guard.
Ben Bentil was a good get at 51. He is an electric scorer, but like Jackson there simply may not be a place for him on the C’s roster without a trade of some kind.
Abdel Nader was a good late-round draft pick; however, like the others drafted in the second round, he may end up in the D-League all year with little chance of making the C’s roster.
Give that the C’s were swinging for the fences, this draft seems like a letdown, but overall the talent the C’s selected was good and it fits in with the roster they have; it just was not a very sexy draft.
Round 1: Caris LeVert (20)
Round 2: Isaiah Whitehead (42)
The Nets traded away forward Thaddeus Young for the rights to the 20th pick, which they used on Caris LeVert. LaVert is still recovering from a foot surgery and said he likely won’t be playing in summer league, but is ahead of schedule on his rehab.
On the surface, this was terrible return for Young, but as we saw leading up to the draft veteran players were not returning nearly the value they should be. It gets compounded when you look at LaVert’s injury history and the fact he may not be ready for camp.
In the long-term, LaVert is a very interesting prospect with tremendous upside, if he can overcome the injuries. For grading purposes, this is pretty good value at 20, if LaVert overcomes the injuries, which all indications are he will. He does fill an immediate need and could end up starting for the Nets once he’s healthy. There were less risky options on the board, but LaVert does have the best upside.
Nabbing Isaiah Whitehead was great value. He can likely contribute right away, and given what’s on the roster now, he too could end up playing big minutes in Brooklyn. As for value, they did a great job and I’m not sure there was a better talent on the board. Plus, he can play a big role.
Overall, the Nets got two promising young players in the draft; the tough part is they did not get very much value out of Thad Young, especially when you look at the haul Oklahoma City got for Serge Ibaka from the Orlando Magic. That’s not a real factor in the draft grade, but it was worth noting.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: N/A
Eh, I get it. The Hornets wanted another veteran and opted to trade what ended up being Malachi Richardson for veteran shooter Marco Belinelli. To be far, while Belinelli is a known quantity, there were players on the board at 22 who could have helped the Hornets, and at a lower cost.
Trading out of the draft usually earns a team an incomplete grade, but in this case it’s hard not to ding the Hornets because they did not get better in the short-term in this deal. We’ll see what the Hornets do with the roster spot, but overall this does not look like a good move.
Round 1: Denzel Valentine (14)
Round 2: Paul Zipser (48)
The biggest part of the Bulls’ draft was trading away Derrick Rose to the New York Knicks in exchange for Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant and Jose Calderon. That’s not a factor in their draft grade, but it was the teeth of their plans around the draft.
At 14, the Bulls drafted Denzel Valentine who may be the most ready-to-play player in the draft pool. There were concerns over the long-term status of his knees, but the Bulls did not seem to care. If he ends up having knee issues or can’t stay durable this pick turns bad quickly, but if everything Valentine is saying is true, he could be a steal for the Bulls. Valentine does solve an immediate need, he likely can play right away and was tremendous value for the pick.
Paul Zipser at 48 most likely stays in Europe. He was a standout at Eurocamp in Italy and looks like a solid upside guy. Again, good value for the pick especially in a draft-and-stash situation. He likely does not help the Bulls this season and does not solve a roster problem.
The Bulls wanted to make a substantial change to the roster and they did that. The question is, will this make them a better team?
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: Kay Felder (54)
Considering the Cavaliers came into the draft with no picks top speak of, trading for Kay Felder was a nice get. Fans and teams alike rave about Felder as an athlete and a player so there is nothing but upside for the Cavs in this move.
From a grading point of view, at 54 this is solid talent. From a roster point of view, maybe he gets a chance if Matt Dellavedova exits via free agency. From a fills a role right away standpoint? Maybe. The Cavaliers like to have a young guy or two on the roster mainly for the veterans to have young guys around. LeBron James has history of taking a young guy under his wing virtually every season, ans this year it could be Felder – although roster spots are going to be hard to come by so the reality is Felder could more likely be in the D-League next year than on the Cavs’ roster.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: A.J. Hammons (46)
The Mavericks kicked around the idea of trading into the teens; in fact, at the 11th hour, there were doing as much recon work as anyone. In the end the Mavs stayed the course and landed A.J. Hammons.
Hammons has a lot of upside. He is a still big man with a solid feel for the game. Some teams had Hammons graded as a late-first rounder, so this is good value for the Mavericks at 46. It’s unlikely that Hammons makes the final Mavericks roster and he is most likely headed to the D-League. From a grading perspective, it’s good value but does not mean much to the roster this year and does not fill an immediate need.
Round 1: Jamal Murray (7), Juan Hernangomez (15), Malik Beasley (19)
Round 2: Petr Cornelie (53)
This one is a mixed bag, mainly because the Nuggets have so much duplication on the roster right now. That said, getting Jamal Murray at 7 was great value. Not sure where he fits on the roster, but he is a solid get in the talent department. He can help right away and he was best value on the board.
Juan Hernangomez is arguably one of my favorite guys in the middle of this draft. He could help right away, although they are still talking about whether he’ll come this year or not, so that’s still up in the air. He was very good value for the pick. There were a few others on the board there, but Hernangomez may have the best upside.
Malik Beasley at 19 is a solid get for the Nuggets, but again where he fits and finds minutes going forward remains to be seen. The Nuggets are loaded everywhere so he may not get the chance to play a big role right away, but he could if they wanted to play him that way. There were a few guys on the board at 19 that might have made more sense, but overall this is a good pick for the Nuggets.
Round 1: Henry Ellenson (18)
Round 2: Michael Gbinije (49)
The Pistons went safe at 18. Ellenson is a solid addition and him being there at 18 was a bit of a surprise. This was good value for the pick. It’s unclear what role he’ll play, as its likely going to be behind Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris but in time this is a quality addition in the talent department. I’m not sure the Pistons could have done better in terms of value for the pick.
Michael Gbinije at 49 was a steal. I think he can play right away for Stan Van Gundy, although his role may be limited. Typically the 49 pick does not yield much, so the Pistons got solid value there.
Neither guy is a starter for the Pistons so there is that, but overall for what could amount to two solid bench additions, the Pistons did well.
Golden State Warriors
Round 1: Damian Jones (30)
Round 2: Patrick McCaw (38)
Considering the Warriors don’t have many needs, getting Damian Jones at 30 was good value. He’ll give them frontcourt options if the team decides to stretch Andrew Bogut to create cap room for a free agent (or in the event of an injury). At 30, that was decent value for the pick. He brings something to the bench, and there wasn’t a ton on the board that was better for the Warriors’ roster.
Patrick McCaw at 38 might be a sneaky play for the Warriors. Among the next tier of prospects, a lot of NBA executives pegged McCaw as a super upside guy and he can bring a few things to the roster if he indeed makes the team. Overall, this was good value for both picks. Neither guy is a starter, but both could play a good role for the Warriors.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: Chinanu Onuaku (37), Zhou Qi (43)
Chinanu Onuaku was a good get at 38, but it’s not clear how much value he brings to the roster that’s already loaded with similarly skilled guys. Does Onuaku get more of a chance than say Montrezl Harrell? Aren’t they awfully similar guys? Overall, drafting size and physicality for a team likely losing Dwight Howard to free agency isn’t bad.
As for Zhou Qi, it’s more likely than not he’s back in China next year playing in the CBA. He has a great skill set, with a lot of potential and surely the Rockets’ huge following in China didn’t hurt this decision.
Overall, the Rockets did not obtain anyone who really matters to their roster next year, nor will either likely play a role. The value for where they spent those picks was good, but overall there isn’t a ton here to get excited about (at least right away).
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: Georges Niang (50)
The Pacers biggest moves were not in the form of draft picks, rather in the veterans they traded for. The Pacers shipped off George Hill in a three-team deal with Atlanta and Utah landing them Jeff Teague and then dealt away the 20 pick to the Nets for Thaddeus Young. That trade will get completed when the new cap year opens on July 7.
So this draft wasn’t about getting young guys, rather landing impact veterans.
However, landing Georges Niang at 50 wasn’t a terrible pickup. He has some upside although it might be a stretch that he actually makes the roster. Considering most picks in the 50s end up being D-League guys or draft-and-stash players, Niang is pretty skilled and could be a dark horse for a final roster spot if he does well in Summer League.
While the Pacers improved themselves dramatically, their draft grade is not reflective of that. The draft grade is about the players actually drafted and in this case, it may not be of much impact.
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1: Brice Johnson (25)
Round 2: David Michineau (39), Diamond Stone (40)
In a draft as flat as this one, it’s hard to find talent with the 25, however the Clippers did pretty well with Brice Johnson. There were a few polarizing players in this draft and Johnson was one of them, some labeled him as a tweener, while some raved about his all-around versatility. At 25 this was good value for the pick, because there wasn’t a lot of better options. Johnson likely plays a role off the bench for the Clips, which fills a need.
While Johnson was a great value at 25, David Michineau at 39 does not make a ton of sense. This may be a case of draft and stash, although the Clippers do need a point guard and Michineau could serve that role. There were better talents available at 39, but he does serve a role and could fill a need if he comes over this year.
Diamond Stone at 40 was good value. He was a first-round talent throughout the process but there were lingering questions that he could not shake in the draft process. This was good value at 40, he can play a role off the bench and he does fill an immediate need for a backup big.
Overall, this was a mixed bag for the Clippers.
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1: Brandon Ingram (2)
Round 2: Ivica Zubac (32)
Not sure the Lakers could have done better, especially considering how much of a no-brainer Brandon Ingram was. Overall, his fit with what’s in L.A. now is outstanding and given that he’ll need a little time to develop physically, the Lakers’ roster can cover for him a little while he adjusts. Don’t expect Ingram to win Rookie of the Year, but he might be the first of this draft class to get serious All-Star votes in a couple of seasons.
At 32, the Lakers got a beast of a prospect in Ivica Zubac. He could be the low-post, rebounding-machine the Lakers need. The Lakers have eyes for Hassan Whiteside in free agency so Zubac could end up being the backup, which might not be a bad thing. As for quality of the pick, Zubac is great talent at No. 32. He can fill an immediate role for the Lakers and contribute right away, assuming he comes over this year as expected.
Round 1: Wade Baldwin (17)
Round 2: Deyonta Davis (32), Rade Zagorac (35), Wang Zhelin (57)
The Grizzlies did rather well in the draft. Wade Baldwin at 17 was a quality get, especially for a team that could lose their starting point guard in Mike Conley to free agency. Baldwin was a mixed bag among executives, some loved his versatility and maturity. Some were soured by his demeanor and lack of explosiveness. Overall at 17, getting a quality combo guard that’s a hard nose defender and leader on the floor is great value. Even if Conley stays, Baldwin could be a solid backup and he’ll contribute right away. The Grizzlies had a glaring need for another guard and Baldwin solves that too.
The Grizz traded for the draft rights to Deyonta Davis, this too was another quality pickup and he should flourish under the tutelage of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen. Davis took a hefty tumble on draft night mainly because teams were concerned about his basketball IQ and his overall feel for the game, especially at the NBA level. At No. 32, Davis can be brought along slowly. Nabbing a lottery-level talent that late in the draft is a huge get for the Grizzlies.
Rade Zagorac and Wang Zhelin are both draft-and-stash players, who may not see roster time in Memphis anytime soon, so neither is a major factor for the Grizz in their draft grade.
Overall, the Grizzlies did really well in nabbing two ready to contribute, high-talent players. This was a better outcome than most predicted.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: N/A
The HEAT traded out of this draft some time ago. While there was talk that Miami might try and trade into the second round, ultimately the HEAT sat this one out.
Round 1: Thon Maker (10)
Round 2: Malcolm Brogdon (36)
The Milwaukee Bucks were said to be less than thrilled with the upside of the guys everyone was slotting to them in the Mock Draft process. They were quality bench guys, but no one who could potentially impact the franchise. So at 10, the Bucks swung for the fences with Thon Maker.
Maker is actually a very good get for the Bucks. His length, shooting, shot blocking and overall upside are huge for a team that’s defined themselves on some gambles in the draft and in trade. There were concerns that over the last few years Maker had not added much to his lanky frame and that he really was not progressing like many believed he would, but in Milwaukee he’ll enter a pretty solid development program and have the benefit of lot of similarly aged players to grow together with.
This was definitely a reach in terms of grabbing him at 10, but unless the Bucks traded down, there was a better than average chance he’d have been scooped up when the teams with multiple picks came around for their second run. Maker does solve a roster need and he may be able to contribute right away from the bench. This was a risky pick for sure, but considering what was there, this was a dare-to-be-great move by the Bucks.
Conversely Malcolm Brogdon at 36 was a safe, smart and productive pick. There were some concerns about Brogdon’s foot from some teams, but his overall upside is still very high and he fits into the roster nicely. With the Bucks likely losing O.J. Mayo to free agency, Brogdon could fill that role nicely and he can really shoot the ball.
Round 1: Kris Dunn (5)
Round 2: N/A
There was talk all the way up to the draft that Boston was going to scoop up Kris Dunn and hold him hostage because it was so clear Minnesota wanted him. In the end, Boston went their own way and Dunn landed where he wanted to be.
For the Wolves, this is a great pick. Dunn fits into the puzzle nicely and gives Tom Thibodeau the defensive-minded floor leader he really coveted. Combined with Ricky Rubio, the Wolves have two point guards who could be very special together. There is a chance the Wolves trade Rubio at some point, especially after Dunn gets acclimated to the NBA, but in the short term the Wolves have another quality piece on the roster that could bring a lot of what was missing together.
Great value at the pick, solves an immediate need and will contribute. Outside of trading for a veteran like Jimmy Butler, this could not have gone better for the Wolves.
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1: Buddy Hield (6)
Round 2: Cheick Diallo (33)
Much like the Wolves, Buddy Hield to the Pelicans was telegraphed for weeks. There was a sense the Pelicans might have taken Jamal Murray but the appeal, fit and impact of Hield was too much to pass on for a Pelicans team desperate for impact shooting and leadership.
The Pelicans ended up trading their two second-round picks to move up and grab Cheick Diallo. He too should be a quality fit for the Pelicans front court that’s likely losing Ryan Anderson to free agency. While Diallo isn’t anything close to the shooter Anderson was, he does offer an interchangeable frontcourt piece to play next to Anthony Davis at either the four or the five.
This was a quality draft by the Pelicans, as they addressed real needs and got great value out of both picks (who they should contribute right away).
New York Knicks
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: N/A
Landing Derrick Rose in a trade with Chicago that basically included non-core parts was a huge get for the Knicks, giving the roster a nice boost around the draft.
However, the Knicks traded away their draft picks some time ago, so missing out on this draft was somewhat planned, despite the Knicks telling a number of prospects they were going to trade into the first. Ultimately, the Knicks passed and stayed out.
Adding Rose was a quality upgrade, but the draft grade isn’t about trades.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Round 1: Domantas Sabonis (11)
Round 2: Daniel Hamilton (56)
You have to hand it to Thunder GM Sam Presti, he is great at extracting value for his assets. It was clear to the Thunder that the end was coming for forward Serge Ibaka and the Thunder flipped him to Orlando in a haul that included guard Victor Oladipo, forward Ersan Ilyasova and the 11th pick. That pick ended up being Domantas Sabonis, whom the Thunder had locked in on pretty aggressively.
Sabonis is a good get for the Thunder, who have seen both Steven Adams and Enes Kanter emerge as quality roster components who were going to continue to edge out Ibaka. In Sabonis they get a different skill set and a quality passer and scorer.
Sabonis was good value at the 11 spot. He may not play a ton as a rookie, as the Thunder tend to lean on veterans more so than rookies, but in the long-term he is a great pick up for a Thunder team that always seems to be a year ahead of their needs when drafting players.
Daniel Hamilton was acquired in trade, but may be an interesting piece for the Thunder – although it’s more likely he’s in the D-League next season. Hamilton may be something to watch if he can refine his jump shot in the D-League, but given the Thunder’s current depth it’s unlikely he plays in the NBA next season.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: Stephen Zimmerman (41)
The big move by the Magic was shipping out Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and the 11th pick to the Thunder in exchange for Serge Ibaka. This move effectively took the Magic out of the 2016 Draft. Time will tell how smart the Ibaka move will be as he can be an unrestricted free agent next July.
As for what the Magic actually came away with, Stephen Zimmerman was viewed as a first-round talent, so getting him at 41 is a lot of value for that pick. He clearly adds to the roster, but it remains to be seen how much of a role he’ll play as a rookie. There were some concerns about Zimmerman’s long-term health leading up to the draft, which may be why he fell so far.
Overall, the Magic’s draft isn’t great given that they traded away two picks and only came away with Zimmerman. The Ibaka deal might be the game changing move the Magic needed, but that’s not a factor in draft grades.
Round 1: Ben Simmons (1), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (24), Furkan Korkmaz (26)
Round 2: N/A
Given that Ben Simmons was the prohibitive top pick, the 76ers taking him first overall was sort of a no-brainer. He was the best talent and the 76ers got him.
The problem is later in the draft, the 76ers drafted Timothe Luwawu and Furkan Korkmaz. While both are interesting prospects, neither seem to address the most glaring roster need: point guard.
The 76ers may well trade for a point guard as they get into free agency, especially if they miss out on top flight free agents, but the fact there were guys there at both picks that could have added something, these picks are a little head scratching unless both opt to stay in overseas.
The Simmons pick in itself makes this a great draft for the 76ers, but the fact they were not able to address any real needs at 24 and 26, it’s hard grade them extremely high. Both Luwawu and Korkmaz are good assets, it’s just unclear where they fit in the 76ers master plan.
Round 1: Dragan Bender (4), Marquese Chriss (8)
Round 2: Tyler Ulis (34)
I loved the Suns’ draft, they got the two biggest upside guys in the class and they did it without giving up a core roster piece.
Bender is the youngest player in the draft, but already has a couple of years of professional experience. He has a tremendous skill set and could end up being one of the better players in the class in time and the Suns have a roster that should allow for him to grow at his pace.
The Suns ended up flipping a lot of their extra picks to the Kings for the rights to Marquese Chriss. Again, huge upside on Chriss. He too will benefit from a loaded roster that affords him time to learn and grow.
Nabbing Tyler Ulis was another quality talent grab. There were concerns that Ulis may require a procedure on his hips, so the Suns have the luxury of depth to wait that out. In the end, Ulis may not end up playing a ton this season, which works out fine considering the depth the Suns have at the position.
Overall, this was a really good draft for the Suns who are now loaded virtually everywhere with a promising young player.
Portland Trail Blazers
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: Jake Layman (47)
The Trail Blazers basically bought the draft rights to Jake Layman from the Orlando Magic – there was a 2019 draft pick involved in the deal, but it may not get conveyed.
Overall, this is a quality get for the Blazers late in the draft. Layman may actually get a chance to play for the Blazers and he’ll bolster their bench as things stand.
Considering this was a “buy a player” situation, the Blazers got pretty good return on the investment.
Round 1: Georgios Papagiannis (13), Malachi Richardson (22), Skal Labissiere (28)
Round 2: Isaiah Cousins (59)
Let’s start here. The Kings traded for a lot of picks. The problem is virtually every player they obtained with them is a head scratcher with huge upside.
Georgios Papagiannis is a solid get for the Kings, but the problem is he is a center. Where does he fit on a roster with DeMarcus Cousins, Willie Cauley-Stein and Kostas Koufos? Papagiannis was likely gone at 16, so if the Kings wanted him they had to take him at 13. He’s a great upside talent, but I’m not sure he has a role. There is a chance he is back in Europe next season, although he was pretty clear on draft night that he wants to play in the NBA this year.
Malachi Richardson at 22 was a good pick up, and he may have a role on the roster. The problem is he never met with the Kings or worked out for them and had a very mixed reaction to his new situation. Some of that may be due to him failing to 22 after many believed he was going to go in the top 15.
Skal Labissiere at 28 was the biggest tumble of the night, but again where does he find minutes? Clearly there is upside to Labissiere, but given the roster construction it’s hard to imagine he’ll see floor time anywhere other than the D-League.
Isaiah Cousins at 59 might actually be the best player selected by the Kings, in terms of immediate impact on the roster and solving a real need.
The Kings got great talent in this draft, the problem is most of them are bigs who don’t have a roster spot. It was a puzzling draft to say the least.
San Antonio Spurs
Round 1: Dejounte Murray (29)
Round 2: N/A
Talk about the rich getting richer. Dejounte Murray was supposed to have been a late lottery guy, but the way the draft played out he just kept falling. The Spurs had been talking about trading into the late lottery to scoop a real talent and they ended up without having to part with an asset.
In terms of value for the pick, this is tremendous for the Spurs. Murray should be able to contribute right away and for a team needing punch and defense from the bench this is a great get.
Murray to the Spurs might be the best pick of this draft.
Round 1: Jakob Poeltl (9)
Round 2: Pascal Siakam (27)
The Raptors for a while had been one of the riskier drafting teams in the NBA. This year, the Raptors could not have played that draft any safer.
Jakob Poeltl at 9 was as safe and smart of a draft pick as there was outside of the top two. He gives them a play-right-away skill set that can augment or eventually replace Jonas Valanciunas. He certainly gives them a viable replacement to Bismack Biyombo, who is likely leaving via free agency.
At 27, Pascal Siakam is a solid addition too, not as proven as say Poeltl but he is a high energy guy who could replace some of the effort plays the Raptors lose from Biyombo.
The value for both players was very good. Both can contribute right away and both could have day one roles.
This was a really good and low-risk draft for the Raptors.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: Joel Bolomboy (52), Marcus Paige (55), Tyrone Wallace (60)
The big move for the Jazz was trading away the No. 12 pick in a three-team deal with Atlanta and Indiana, which returned a high-caliber starting point guard in George Hill. That, in essence, took the Jazz out of the draft in a meaningful way, but they were able to scoop up some interesting pieces in the second round.
Joel Bolomboy at 52 is very interesting. He could be someone on the roster next season, especially if he plays well in Summer League. The smart money says it’s more likely that he’s in the D-League next season and stays on the Jazz radar.
The same is likely true of Marcus Paige and Tyrone Wallace. The odds that either get further than training camp is pretty low.
Overall, the Jazz basically traded out of the draft, which impacted their grade. The players they scooped up in the second round are interesting but it’s Joel Bolomboy doubtful any of them make the roster let alone play a role.
Trading for a starting guard was a great move, but that’s not what the grades are about.
Round 1: N/A
Round 2: N/A
The Wizards traded out of the draft this year to obtain Markieff Morris. They sniffed around for trades in the second round, but ultimately sat this one out.
Houston Rockets 2017-18 Season Preview
With Chris Paul joining James Harden and Mike D’Antoni, how high can the Rockets soar? Basketball Insiders takes a look.
After overachieving last season, the Houston Rockets pulled off one of the more surprising moves of the summer. With Chris Paul now joining James Harden, the Rockets have one of the league’s best backcourts. The question now, however, is whether or not they have enough to help them become one of the top two teams in the Western Conference.
With a roster that isn’t as deep as it was last season, the 2017-18 Houston Rockets will be counting on their supremely gifted backcourt to help them surpass last season’s 55 wins.
Whether or not they can may ultimately depend on how general manager Daryl Money fleshes out his roster around his two superstars—and also whether the team is able to eventually pull off a long-discussed trade for Carmelo Anthony.
Basketball Insiders takes a look at the 2017-18 Houston Rockets.
FIVE GUYS THINK
For the first time during his Houston Rockets tenure, James Harden has a true superstar companion (no, I’m not counting Dwight Howard in that category).
Chris Paul joins Harden in H-Town after a season that saw Harden switch to point guard in Mike D’Antoni’s offense and lead the league in assists per game. While that may seem odd at first glance, Paul’s ability to command the floor, shoot and score effectively, and play elite defense gives Houston a backcourt that can rival any in the league — even those dudes in the Bay Area.
With role players like Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, PJ Tucker, and Trevor Ariza on board, Harden and Paul should have enough artillery to overtake their division and actually give Golden State a run for their money.
1st place — Southwest Division
— Dennis Chambers
Oh, there will be three-pointers. So many three-pointers. A year ago, the Houston Rockets broke the single-season record for most deep attempts in a season, having shot over 40 of them per game, and it doesn’t look like this year is going to be any different, especially with Chris Paul helping to break down defenses and create potentially even more open looks for those Houston shooters. Nabbing Paul was a huge boon, and somehow finagling Carmelo Anthony would only add to the haul basketball gods willing. Even without Anthony, though, Paul and last year’s MVP runner-up James Harden is enough to make this team a powerhouse. The role guys here fit Mike D’Antoni’s system beautifully, and the star power obviously is there. Pencil the Rockets in for a very deep playoff run this summer. Nobody is going to give Golden State more trouble than these guys, health pending.
1st place — Southwest Division
— Joel Brigham
Houston is hoping that the backcourt duo of James Harden and Chris Paul can bridge the gap between the Rockets and the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are still the favorites, but Houston now has arguably the league’s best backcourt, versatile wing defenders that theoretically match up well with Golden State and enough overall talent to have a chance to upset the Warriors on any given night. P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah Moute help to bolster the team’s defensive versatility, while Paul is still one of the league’s best defensive point guards. However, the loss of players like Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell could sting a bit more than most predict. The wildcard right now is the stalemate regarding Carmelo Anthony. If Anthony ends up in Houston, the Rockets would have a very impressive arsenal of offensive talent. Whether the skill sets of Paul, Harden and Anthony could effectively mesh together is unclear, but it sure would be fun to see what they could achieve together.
1st place — Southwest Division
— Jesse Blancarte
What an offseason for Rockets GM Daryl Morey, who should easily be in pole position for Executive of the Year at this point. The Chris Paul trade is the obvious feather in the cap, but Morey also got fantastic deals on guys like P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute – both exactly the kind of wing stoppers this team has been in dire need of for some time. The Rockets now have more of the kind of switchable bodies needed to throw at a behemoth like Golden State, plus two of the league’s best ball-handlers in Paul and James Harden. They’re all-in on making a charge at the champs this year; we’ll see if they have enough to do it.
1st place — Southwest Division
— Ben Dowsett
The Rockets enter the season very similarly to the Celtics.
Each team surpassed expectations last season, but ended up trading away a few rotation pieces to consolidate and bring in a superstar. I think the partnership between Paul and James Harden will work so long as Harden continues to play with his head up. The propensity for many people in Harden’s shoes would be to revert to being a shoot-first guard, but I think the Rockets will only maximize their potential if both Paul and Harden make it their duty to make their teammates better.
Although these guys may struggle to get defensive stops at times, they are just one more piece away from potentially winning the Western Conference. The Rockets would be best-served by encouraging Carmelo Anthony to work out a contract buyout with the Knicks and join them after potentially clearing waivers. Until they find a way to add him (or a player with similar caliber), they will still be looking up at the Spurs in the Southwest and at at least two other teams in the conference.
2nd place — Southwest Division
— Moke Hamilton
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: James Harden
Although Chris Paul is a supremely gifted offensive player, James Harden is absolutely extraordinary. Russell Westbrook’s record-breaking 42 triple doubles overshadowed the fact that Harden himself turned in an amazing 22 over the course of the season. Always having been a dynamic scorer, Harden took his game to the next level last season after being installed as the primary point guard for Mike D’Antoni and his club. Harden reverted to his prior days as a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder and proved that he still had the ability to create plays for his teammates and be an effective “finder” in pick-and-roll situations.
Last season, the Rockets finished second in points per game and second in offensive efficiency, and they did so because of Harden. The bearded point guard averaged career-highs across the board with 29.1 points per game, 8.1 rebounds per game and 11.2 assists per game.
He’s not only the top offensive player on the Rockets; it could be argued that he’s the top offensive player in the entire league.
Top Defensive Player: Clint Capela
Again, Chris Paul gets snubbed, but barely. The same can be said for the newly signed Luc Mbah a Moute, who is entering his 10th NBA season. Both Mbah a Moute and Paul were members of the most effective defensive lineups deployed by Doc Rivers last season, but Clint Capela is a true game-changer on the defensive end of the floor.
Although he had the benefit of being protected on the perimeter by Patrick Beverly and Trevor Ariza, Capela is a prototype of what today’s defensive NBA should be. He is wiry and rangy—his long arms make him a good shot blocker and pass lane defender, while his athleticism and light-footedness make him nimble enough to defend opposing perimeter players after being switched out on pick-and-roll plays. The numbers might not necessarily back up the claim (Capela averaged just 1.2 blocks and 0.5 steals per game during the regular season), but he was the anchor and final line of defense for a team that finished a respectable 18th in defensive efficiency last season. Most importantly, though, was Capela’s defense during the playoffs. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game and helped the Rockets hold their playoff opponents to 105.8 points per 100 possessions, the third-best mark in the playoffs.
As it relates to defensive presence, the Swiss-born center is special.
Top Playmaker: Chris Paul
James Harden may have led the league in assists per game last season, but Chris Paul is the best playmaker on the roster. Whether or not he can be more effective with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson—the three of whom all shared the floor with Harden last year—remains to be seen, though.
Still, Paul has averaged at least nine assists per game for each of the past 10 seasons and has never drawn criticism for a lack of creating opportunities for his teammates. In fact, it will be especially interesting to see how effective Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will be on the offensive side of the basketball without him.
As it currently stands, Paul enters his 13th season averaging 9.89 assists per game—the third-highest per-game average in NBA history. Magic Johnson (11.19) and John Stockton (10.51) are the only ones who have averaged more per game. Paul is also just one of two active players to rank in the Top 10 for total career assists. Andre Miller, who has recorded 8,524 career assists, ranks ninth. That leaves him just 273 assists ahead of Paul’s 8,251.
In all likelihood, Paul, one of the top playmakers in the history of the league, will become ninth this season.
Top Clutch Player: James Harden
While Chris Paul has certainly made his fair share of big shots, James Harden gets the nod. Truth be told, however, an inspection of the numbers yields the conclusion that both Paul and Harden leave a bit to be desired in clutch moments of games. Last season, in the final five minutes of a game that was within five points in the fourth quarter and overtime, Harden shot 33-for-93. Converting on just 35.5 percent of shots in those situations is a mediocre showing, but it is better than the 13-for-41 shot by Paul in those moments. Paul’s 31.7 percent shooting in those situations is not as good as we would expect it to be, but he should also point out that his lack of attempts in those situations is probably due to the fact that he has more of a propensity to pass the basketball in the first place.
Still, Harden gets the nod.
The Unheralded Player: Eric Gordon
In an interesting twist, in December 2011, Chris Paul was traded to the Los Angeles Clippers for a package of players that most prominently featured Eric Gordon. The two will now share the floor as members of the Houston Rockets.
After averaging 22.3 points per game in his third season, Gordon seemed destined for greatness as the NBA level. The Hornets thought they were getting an All-Star caliber player in exchange for Paul, but Gordon’s very first season in New Orleans was an indicator of what would become of his career. Gordon was limited to just nine games in 2011-12 and would play just 42, 64, 61 and 45 games over the following four years, respectively.
Last season, though, things turned. After being relegated to the bench, Gordon appeared in 75 games and scored 16.2 points per game off the bench. As a result, Gordon managed to edge out Andre Iguodala for the 2016-17 Sixth Man of the Year Award and play an integral role in the Rockets and their overachieving last season. He hasn’t necessarily gotten his due from the masses, though, which is why he deserves some love here.
Best New Addition: Chris Paul
Obviously, when you add a player like Chris Paul to a team with the firepower of the Rockets, he is the best new addition. At 32 years old, Paul is probably past his physical prime, but his game has never been about athleticism. If there is a concern, it would be that he managed to appear in just 61 games last season, but in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, he suited up for 82 and 74 games, respectively.
It will be interesting to see how Mike D’Antoni managed Paul’s minutes, and the extent to which he has James Harden and Paul share the floor for long spurts or whether he uses them to spell one another. However, if Paul can remain relatively healthy, the Rockets may be one or two more pieces away from winning the Western Conference, and that’s the case because they managed to add Paul.
Luc Mbah a Moute gets an honorable mention here, as well.
— Moke Hamilton
WHO WE LIKE
1. Mike D’Antoni
Say what you want about Mike D’Antoni, but the Rockets were a respectable defensive team last season. At the very least, that shows that when D’Antoni has the personnel, he can pull some good defense out of his club.
What D’Antoni deserves respect for, however, is demanding greatness of his team and remaining true to his principles. Since his departure from the Phoenix Suns, he has failed to find the type of success that many expected after leading the Suns to contention. The winner of the 2016-17 NBA Coach of the Year Award, D’Antoni joins Gregg Popovich, Hubie Brown, Pat Riley, Don Nelson, Gene Shue, Bill Fitch and Cotton Fitzsimmons as the only coaches in history to win the award multiple times.
As great as James Harden has been, it could certainly be argued that he wouldn’t have been able to unleash his offensive potential without having a system that could take advantage of his gifts and a coach that could reach him.
It’s easy to argue that the 2016-17 season with the Houston Rockets represents the finest coaching job in D’Antoni’s career.
2. Daryl Morey
One of the leaders of the contemporary NBA’s love affair with advanced statistics and analytics, Morey is one of the more renowned general managers in the NBA. Whether it was making an aggressive run at Chris Bosh or signing Jeremy Lin or Dwight Howard, Morey has traditionally been a general manager who often looks for and usually finds ways to improve his team. An autopsy of the moves that he has made would show a few failures and a few contracts that were richer than they should have been, but the same can be said of most executives across the NBA. Long ago, Morey earned the monicker of “the Wizard” for seemingly being able to come away from trades with more than he gave up. The test of the monicker will be this season, though. With Chris Paul’s advancing age, Morey will have limited time to build a contender around he and James Harden. However, over the course of his 10 years in Houston, we admire his zeal and give him the benefit of the doubt.
3. Trevor Ariza
Though lacking the hardware, one could make the case that Trevor Ariza is a lite version of the modern day Bruce Bowen. Since being drafted with the 43rd pick of the 2004 NBA Draft, Ariza has been a plus contributor for each one of his 13 years in the NBA. He has earned a reputation for being a true professional, an excellent teammate and a hard worker.
Defensively, although Ariza has lost a step or two, he is still pesky on the perimeter. He shot 34.4 percent from the three-point line last season and is a career 35 percent shooter from deep. Although that percentage doesn’t necessarily put him among the league leaders, it allows him to blend in nicely with Chris Paul and James Harden. He will contribute positively on the defensive end while helping to keep the floor spaced and the game open.
Having just turned 35 years old, there was some doubt that Nene would return for his 16th NBA season after his 2016-17 campaign ended prematurely. Nene tore a muscle in his left thigh during the Rockets’ playoff battle against the San Antonio Spurs, and any chance that the team had of competing with Gregg Popovich and Kawhi Leonard went up in smoke.
Nene is still an effective defender and still has magnificent footwork. He’s nimble and should still be able to give the Rockets an effective 15 minutes per game. It’s also reasonable to expect him to be the team’s best post option and, in a best case scenario, someone who can help some of the younger big men on the Rockets develop their own skills.
5. Ryan Anderson
Ryan Anderson’s name has been mentioned a lot this past summer, but mostly because the New York Knicks have let it be known that they refuse to take him back in any would-be trade for Carmelo Anthony.
Truth is, when it was learned that the Rockets would sign Anderson to a four-year, $80 million contract last summer, most people questioned the wisdom behind the deal. Certainly a hefty commitment, Anderson could be argued as being overpaid, but his effectiveness with last season’s Rockets can’t be questioned.
In 29.4 minutes per game last season, Anderson scored 13.6 points per game. More importantly, though, he led the team in three-point percentage, connecting on 40.3 percent of his looks from long distance.
What made Anderson’s proficiency and durability especially noteworthy last season was the fact that he missed 97 total games over the precious three seasons. He appeared in 72 total contests last season, and appears to be trending in the right direction. Although he owns a rich contract that the Knicks rightfully want no part of, he fits nicely with the Rockets, who they are and what they do.
— Moke Hamilton
SALARY CAP 101
The Rockets had an interesting summer, dipping below the salary cap in June to acquire multiple contracts to immediately turn around in trade for Chris Paul. The team has been over the cap since the start of July, using almost their Mid-Level Exception on P.J. Tucker and Zhou Qi. Houston also spent its Bi-Annual Exception on Tarik Black. With $114.7 million in guaranteed salary, the Rockets have some wiggle room under their hard cap of $125.3 million – potentially staying completely under the league’s $119.3 million luxury tax threshold.
Next summer, the team could get to almost $20 million in cap room but only if Paul leaves as an unrestricted free agent. Houston is far more likely to stay over next year’s projected $102 million cap, locking down Paul on a new, long-term deal. Before the start of the coming season, Houston can work an extension with Clint Capela, otherwise he’ll hit restricted free agency in July.
— Eric Pincus
The Backcourt and the Coach
Chris Paul and James Harden, in terms of talent, can argue for mention as the top backcourt in the league. At the very least, they are on the same plane as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Whatever the Rockets hope to be this season will begin and end with how Paul and Harden galvanize their troops. For the most part, though, the two have each proven themselves to be effective leaders and winners. Paul has always maximized the talent around him, and last season Harden proved that he is just as capable of doing the same. If the Rockets can collectively take the next step and keep the ball moving as opposed to standing by idly and waiting for Paul and Harden to create, they’ll be in business.
As it relates to Mike D’Antoni, he will only be effective if his players are buying into what he is preaching. With Paul and Harden, D’Antoni will have the most gifted tandem he’s ever coached, and it should be interesting to see what kind of return he is able to get. If there is one coach that should be entrusted with finding a way to make Paul and Harden work together, it’s D’Antoni.
— Moke Hamilton
Depth and Chemistry
Jumping on the opportunity to acquire a player like Chris Paul was the right move, but the Rockets don’t have the depth required of a championship contender. Both the Warriors and Cavaliers have 10 players who can be counted on to have an impact on any given night. The same probably can’t be said of the Rockets. At best, the Rockets have eight players who have proven that they are everyday NBA contributors, but Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are only threats on offense, while Clint Capela and Luc Mbah a Moute are most effective on the defensive side of the ball. Nene probably can’t play much more than 15 minutes per game and at least one of Demetrius Jackson, Tim Quarterman or Isaiah Taylor will be depended upon to play impactful minutes at the lead guard position, especially if either Paul or Harden goes down.
Aside from that, the Rockets have a lot of new faces. For a team that won 55 games last season and found success with what it was running, incorporating so many new faces will pose a challenge.
— Moke Hamilton
THE BURNING QUESTION
Can Daryl Morey find a way to land Carmelo Anthony?
Acquiring Chris Paul came at a great cost. In exchange for the future Hall-of-Famer, the Rockets traded away some key members of last seasons team in Patrick Beverly and Lou Williams, as well as a few youngsters in Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell. The Rockets also sent a top-three protected 2018 first round pick to the Clippers. The club also sent cash to the Clippers.
The only problem for the Rockets now, though, is depth. While they still have some very good contributors, the team has consolidated a few of its important pieces (including a top-flight defender in Beverly) for the right to acquire Paul. It makes perfect sense that the team is interested in Carmelo Anthony, but the cupboard seems fairly bare. What remains to be seen with the Rockets now is whether and how they will find creative ways to add two or three more rotation-ready pieces to their roster. If Anthony holds out until December, the trade winds will begin swirling, as players who signed contracts this past summer will become trade-eligible. In other instances, players who seek buyouts (such as Dwyane Wade) may eventually wiggle free and may circle Houston as a preferred destination.
The question at the end of the day thus becomes whether Morey can continue to be the Wizard we have come to know and put some more meaningful pieces around his dynamic backcourt—whether it be Carmelo Anthony or someone else.
— Moke Hamilton
The Atlanta Hawks Seek To Meld Championship Cultures
The Hawks are seeking to build a new but familiar culture, writes Buddy Grizzard.
Atlanta Hawks GM Travis Schlenk made no secret of his intention to borrow cultural and organizational elements from the Golden State Warriors — his former employer — while speaking to media at Philips Arena Friday morning. The spirit of collaboration he brings from Golden State shares similarities with the San Antonio-inspired spirit of his immediate front office predecessors. Another similarity is to specifically target high-character players who will always strive to reach their full potential, and Schlenk said he’s not concerned if his group overachieves and sacrifices draft position.
“We drafted Draymond Green while I was in Golden State at 35,” said Schlenk. “You can get franchise-type players and very solid players all over the draft. We’re going to be competitive. When you look at the guys we signed this year in free agency, those are guys that show up and play hard every single night. So we’re laying the foundation for the future of the Atlanta Hawks.”
Character is a recurring theme for Schlenk, who noted the Warriors as a team that was able to assemble a high-character roster without sacrificing talent.
“All the guys that we sign or look to acquire moving forward, they’re going to be high character guys as we start to build a culture here,” said Schlenk. “When you look back when I was involved with Golden State, that’s a conscious decision we made. You look at the guys that are on that roster now and they are all high-character guys, and that’s what we’re going to mimic here in Atlanta as well.”
Another element Schlenk brings from Golden State is a spirit of collaboration among members of the front office and coaching staff to develop consensus on important decisions. While Schlenk has made some additions to the basketball operations staff, it hasn’t been a complete overhaul. Some of the key voices remain from coach Mike Budenholzer’s previous front office regime, providing Atlanta with some continuity.
“I’m very fortunate [that] when I got here, there was a great staff already in place,” said Schlenk. “Those guys are still with us and — going through the draft process with them — their organization was really, really strong. Going through free agency we were extremely prepared. That group is Jeff Peterson, who is our assistant GM; John Treloar, our director of player personnel; obviously coach Budenholzer; and Mike McNeive, our director of basketball operations. Those are kind of our senior management crew and then we have younger guys that are also involved in the process.”
One of the additions Schlenk made was to bring on Rod Higgins, who was the GM in Golden State early in his career and later GM of the Hornets, as a college scout.
“He was the GM there when I was a back-row assistant coach,” said Schlenk. “I’m very comfortable with the staff we have here but I thought bringing in somebody with a little more experience could be useful for us. It’s important to have a group and it’s important that you get everyone’s opinions and they’re different opinions. You don’t want a group of people that are all going to give you the same mind unless it’s the right decision.”
While some have wondered how enthusiastic Budenholzer is to oversee a developing roster since he hasn’t missed the playoffs since his first season as an assistant in San Antonio (the season before the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan), Schlenk was very comfortable with his buy-in.
“Coach Bud, when I first got here we spent a ton of time together, getting to know each other [and] getting to know each other’s philosophies,” said Schlenk. “He’s completely on board with what our plan was this summer. He’s excited about the upcoming season. He and his staff have proven that the one thing they have done very well since he’s been here is develop young talent. And so they’re excited about this venture that we have where they’re going to have a great opportunity to develop a lot of — hopefully — great players that we’re going to draft over the next few years.”
Schlenk provided some insight on one of the moves that set the Hawks up to have additional draft assets in the future, the trade that sent Dwight Howard to the Charlotte Hornets and returned Miles Plumlee and Marco Belinelli. Although the trade cost Atlanta 10 spots in the second round, Schlenk insisted that it set the team up for flexibility in the future.
“The way the process goes when you start having conversations with other teams, you start building out all the other things that would be involved with making the trade,” said Schlenk. “When it got down with Charlotte, there were other players that were going to be in the deal that both teams decided wouldn’t be in there. Obviously, the 31st pick was important to them.
“When we look at our roster moving forward, with the nine draft picks we have in the next few years, it wasn’t as important to us to be able to add that young player this year because we have so many opportunities with three first-round draft picks next year. And we really only slid back ten spots to 41. Obviously, we would have loved to have the 31st pick, but to be able to get that financial flexibility that we wanted for the future, it made it worth it to slide back 10 spots in the second round.”
Schlenk added that not nearly enough time has passed to evaluate the trade’s impact on Atlanta.
“Well, we haven’t played a game yet so it’s hard to say,” said Schlenk. “We did that trade for the financial flexibility. We were able to use that flexibility this summer to acquire a first-round draft pick in next year’s draft from the Clippers in the Jamal Crawford trade. So it played out well for us.”
While the Hawks will be building the product on the court from the ground up, Schlenk appears to have made the transition to new leadership in the front office as seamless as possible. While Schlenk is the final decision maker on front office matters, he strives to build consensus. In that way, the collaborative spirit he brings from Golden State is similar to the Spurs-inspired culture that already existed in Atlanta. However, with the Hawks looking at a lengthy development project, it will be a long time before we see if the melding of championship cultures can produce results similar to those achieved by the organizations of origin.
NBA AM: Boston Celtics 2017-18 Season Preview
The Boston Celtics will have a very different look this season. The question is will it be enough to topple the Cavaliers? We look at the Celtics in this season preview.
When a franchise returns just four players from the prior season, that’s typically a sign of a rebuild, a strategy not often embraced by teams that were just three wins shy of reaching the NBA Finals. Of course, this massive roster overhaul comes after the Boston Celtics clawed their way to the Eastern Conference’s top seed with a 53-29 record, only for the Cleveland Cavaliers to demoralize them in five games.
After moving down from the No. 1 overall pick (via Brooklyn) in the 2017 NBA Draft to take talented rookie Jayson Tatum, the Celtics then added Gordon Hayward in free agency and executed a blockbuster trade for Kyrie Irving. While the Celtics are still soundly one of the conference’s elite contenders, general manager Danny Ainge has effectively gone all-in for 2017-18 without sacrificing much of the franchise’s long-term potential.
The Celtics’ revamped roster has set their collective sights on a championship, but here’s how Basketball Insiders envision this season shaking out.
FIVE GUYS THINK…
Incredibly, the team that finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference last season added two star caliber players and a top-three pick in the draft during this offseason.
Talk about a productive summer.
The Boston Celtics are officially a legitimate threat to the Cavaliers Eastern Conference throne after signing Gordon Hayward, adding Jayson Tatum to the mix, and ultimately parting with the Brooklyn pick and their own point guard to bring Kyrie Irving behind enemy lines.
However, this season won’t be the season they finally usurp the King in Cleveland. But, Boston fans should be overjoyed with how the immediate and long term future of their team looks now with the likes of Irving and Hayward on board alongside a bevy of young talent and assets. The return to the glory days of Celtics basketball seems to be right around the corner.
1st place– Atlantic Division
– Dennis Chambers
It is my opinion that adding Kyrie Irving was good for the Celtics. Also, that signing Gordon Hayward was good. Also, that drafting Jayson Tatum was good. Together, all of these good things added to the good things Boston already had on the roster, including last year’s big additions, Al Horford and Jaylen Brown, makes for a good team. The coach is good, too. Everything here is good. Big things are on the horizon for the Celtics this season.
1st Place – Atlantic Division
– Joel Brigham
After scores of people ridiculed Danny Ainge for failing to land either Jimmy Butler or Paul George, he absolutely got the last laugh by signing Gordon Hayward and executing a trade for Kyrie Irving. As a result of a fairly busy summer, the Celtics have a ton of new faces and have lost their defensive stalwarts in Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder. With Hayward and Irving joining Al Horford, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, though, the Celtics probably have enough firepower to win the Atlantic Division.
The reasonable expectation for this team is to give the Cavaliers a good fight in the Eastern Conference Finals. My main concern with them is that they simply lack the depth that made them who they were last season. Sure, consolidation is generally a good thing when you’re adding superstars, but the Celtics probably need two more solid rotation players before I consider them to be a legitimate threat to the Cavs atop the East. That, of course, assumes that everyone remains relatively healthy.
Still, Ainge deserves an A+ for what he pulled off this summer, and the Celtics’ next reign atop the Atlantic will likely begin this season.
1st place – Atlantic Division
– Moke Hamilton
The summer’s most active team, the Celtics will suddenly be without three of the five guys they sent out to start Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year. They landed the offseason’s biggest free agency fish in Gordon Hayward, then engineered a massive blockbuster for Kyrie Irving. These moves also forced them to move on from each of Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley, though they also picked up Marcus Morris for Bradley. The Celtics undeniably got more talented this summer, but how will potential fit and chemistry issues clash with that improvement? It’s tough to say, though coach Brad Stevens is among the best bets in the league to work things out quickly.
1st Place – Atlantic Division
– Ben Dowsett
Adding Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving and a top-three draft pick in Jayson Tatum is a big deal. However, we can’t simply forget that guys like Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are no longer with the team. The Thomas hip injury is problematic and he was about to become very expensive, so replacing him with Irving, even at a high price, was probably the right thing to do. Bradley is also about to become very expensive, but his elite perimeter defense and shooting will be missed. Also, I think the loss of Crowder is going to hurt more than most people predict. Having said all of that, the Celtics are primed to compete now and for the foreseeable future. Boston has a nice mix of versatile veteran and young talent to mix and match and I’m confident that Brad Stevens is going to figure out how to best utilize it. I don’t know if Boston has enough to take down LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I think the potential to do so is there.
1st Place – Atlantic Division
– Jesse Blancarte
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: Kyrie Irving
Simply put, Irving is one of basketball’s best offensive players without a doubt. Whether Irving is looking to create his own shot or wants to feed off of his teammates as a spot-up assassin, the 25-year-old can do it all. Although Cleveland ultimately came up short against the Golden State Warriors, Irving managed to improved in the playoffs once again, this time tallying 25.9 points to go along with 5.3 assists and 2.4 three-pointers per game. With the ball, Irving is immensely talented and creative in both pick-and-roll or isolation situations, particularly so when the game hangs in the balance.
His trade demand exhibited the desire to be a franchise’s top option offensively, a role Irving hasn’t held since LeBron James re-signed with Cleveland in 2014. The future dynamic between the Celtics’ new 1-2 scoring punch hasn’t been defined, but Irving may be headed toward his most fruitful season yet.
Top Defensive Player: Marcus Smart
Nearly by default, Marcus Smart is the clear leader in this category. With the departure of Avery Bradley this summer, Stevens will badly need a defensive bulldog to play a large role in the backcourt. Smart’s slower offensive development has kept him from becoming a star, but there’s no denying his hawk-like instincts and ruthless intangibles. Using his hulking 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame, Smart hounds opposing players and aggressively takes advantage of their mistakes.
In 2016-17 alone, Smart totaled 14 games with three or more steals, even reaching an absurd tally of eight in a win against the Philadelphia 76ers just before the All-Star break. Today, Smart is an extremely versatile defender, often capable of guarding every position on the floor despite the difference in height. It’s been said every year since Smart was drafted in 2014 – he owns a career three-point mark of 29.1 percent – but if he develops a more consistent jumper, the sky’s the limit for the enigmatic guard.
Unless the Celtics and Smart agree on an extension before the regular season begins, he’ll be a restricted free agent next July. With a huge role on the table and plenty of money up for grabs, expect Smart to run with the opportunity and become one of the Celtics’ big-time glue guys, even if he’s not a starter.
Top Playmaker: Gordon Hayward
Hayward has long been on the shortlist for the NBA’s most underrated, but that will likely change in Boston this season. Since the Utah Jazz drafted Hayward in 2010, the 6-foot-8 small forward has improved in every consecutive season and posted career-highs in points (21.9), rebounds (5.4) and field goal percentage (47.1)* during his final campaign in Utah. Despite his low usage for a star (27.6), Hayward was the key linchpin behind a Jazz team that reached the playoffs’ second round for the first time since 2009-10.
As a versatile offensive wing, Hayward has blossomed into a reliable shooter from nearly every spot on the court. Defensively, Hayward was a difficult assignment in 2016-17 and he was more than happy to launch from long range (39.8 percent) or penetrate (5.9 FTA) depending on the situation. In 2013-14, Hayward averaged 5.2 assists per game and the Celtics will tap into his efficient playmaking abilities in Stevens’ fluid offense.
* If you don’t count his rookie season percentage of 48.5, in which Hayward only attempted 4.1 shots per game
Top Clutch Player: Kyrie Irving
No matter what situation, moment or deficit is at hand, nothing is impossible or too big for Irving. Even on a team that often deferred to James in the waning moments, Irving’s fourth quarter explosions were always an incredible joy to watch in Cleveland. Armed with an arsenal of ankle-breaking crossovers and an uncanny ability to finish around the rim, there’s no defender that enjoys guarding Irving as the clock ticks toward the final buzzer.
The Boston faithful fell in love with Thomas’ volume shooting late in games and his average of 9.8 fourth quarter points trailed only Russell Westbrook in 2016-17, so Irving undoubtedly has huge shoes to fill. But if Irving’s stellar track record – see Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals – is any indication, the Celtics will adore their new franchise point guard all the same.
The Unheralded Player: Al Horford
Al Horford was the Celtics’ big-time free agent coup in 2016, a precursor to this summer’s onslaught of roster changes. And yet, the four-time All-Star took plenty of criticism, even as Boston battled their way to the conference’s No. 1 seed. For $26.5 million, fans argued, Horford should be contributing more than 14 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. However, Horford’s influence on both sides of the ball extends beyond the box score.
The 11-year veteran is now on the wrong side of 30, but Horford is a Swiss Army Knife of versatility for Boston. Defensively, his ability to effortlessly switch on screens and stay with driving opponents makes him an invaluable piece to Boston’s puzzle. Rebounding is still a team-wide weakness, but Horford was Boston’s best rebounding big man last season – Bradley grabbed more than anybody else and ranked No. 2 with 6.1 per game.
Like it or not, the Celtics will need Horford’s reliable numbers after shuffling Bradley, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko out the door this offseason.
Best New Addition: Marcus Morris
Yes, Irving and Hayward are Boston’s best new additions, but in the interest of sharing the spotlight, there’s another arrival that deserves attention as well. This summer saw the departure of both Crowder and Olynyk, but Marcus Morris should be an excellent replacement for the Celtics. Morris started 79 games for the Detroit Pistons last season and averaged 14 points and 4.6 rebounds as the team’s small forward. While he’ll be asked to fill a slightly different role with the Celtics, Morris should fit in nicely on the roster and in Stevens’ offensive and defensive systems.
Although he only converted on 33.1 percent of his three-point attempts last season, Morris has developed into a reliable 3-and-D player nonetheless. For almost two years, Morris has been hailed as one of the league’s top LeBron-stoppers as James averaged just 22 points against the Detroist Pistons in 2016-17, according to Boston.com. Another tidbit worth noting: Morris has played in 399 of 410 possible games over the last five NBA seasons, a near-perfect bill of health for the hard-nosed forward.
– Benny Nadeau
WHO WE LIKE
1. Danny Ainge
Gifted a treasure trove of high-level assets by the Brooklyn Nets in 2013, Ainge quickly changed the fortunes of a franchise headed for an inevitable rebuild. The combination of hungry youngsters and the eventual emergence of Thomas jumpstarted the Celtics’ latest revival, a streak often attributed to the general manager’s overall savviness in trades and drafts. Unpredictable in nature, Ainge has been calculated in his moves thus far, looking to contend and build for the future at the same time.
When Ainge needed cap space to sign Hayward, he made the difficult decision to move Bradley instead of Crowder or Smart. While Bradley was beloved by fans and essential to the roster’s core DNA, the forward-thinking Ainge traded the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent instead of Crowder’s team-friendly deal or Smart, who will be restricted in 2018. After selecting Jaylen Brown in 2016 and moving down for Tatum this June, Ainge was comfortable enough to move Thomas, Crowder and the Nets’ unprotected 2018 first-rounder to acquire Irving.
The Celtics haven’t conquered their James-sized problem quite yet, but Ainge deserves credit for the bold direction he’s taken the franchise this summer alone.
2. Brad Stevens
Year after year, Stevens continues to build his case as one of the NBA’s brightest coaches. Stevens is lauded as a tactical mastermind and his approach to the Xs and Os helped Boston to a 108.6 offensive rating last season, the eighth-best mark in the league. Out of timeouts, the Celtics are deadly and Stevens excels at utilizing screens and deceptive movements to create easy shot opportunities. Unanimously liked in the locker room as well, Stevens is able to squeeze every ounce of talent from his roster each season.
Reuniting with Hayward is not only a fantastic storyline for the 2017-18 season, but he’s another uber-efficient talent for Stevens to weaponize as he sees fit. Truly historic results from both Steve Kerr and Mike D’Antoni have stolen the coaching spotlight away from Stevens during recent award seasons, but it shouldn’t be long before the well-received leader earns a trophy of his own.
3. Jaylen Brown
At this point, there’s no stopping Brown’s hype train and his expectations as a hooper have never been higher. After encouraging stints at both the Utah and Las Vegas summer leagues, many have tipped Brown as the favorite to supplant Bradley as a starter. Brown is an energetic, enthusiastic defender and his athleticism should make him a highlight machine alongside Irving.
Stevens hasn’t chosen between Brown and Smart quite yet, but the sophomore will see a major boost in minutes this season either way. As Basketball Insiders wrote last month, nobody benefitted more from the Irving-Thomas deal than Brown – now it’s time to prove it.
4. Jayson Tatum
Leading up to June’s NBA Draft, Markelle Fultz was the unanimous choice for the No. 1 overall pick. When Ainge eventually traded down for Tatum, some onlookers were initially confused. With Thomas set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2018 and openly searching for an expensive deal, Fultz would have been an appropriate replacement. But after the Irving trade in late August, Ainge’s master plan became much clearer: Brown and Tatum are the future of the franchise.
For what it’s worth, Tatum’s first summer league entry was an undeniable success and the rookie immediately exhibited an ability to score at the NBA level. His role will certainly be limited this season, but Tatum’s positional fluidity should earn him opportunities to contribute, albeit small ones. However, if an injury strikes, it’ll be interesting to see if Tatum can thrive in a high-intensity role.
– Benny Nadeau
SALARY CAP 101
The Celtics made their big move in acquiring Kyrie Irving from the Cleveland Cavaliers. The team started the summer under the NBA’s $99.1 million salary cap, landing Gordon Hayward in free agency. Now over, Boston used their $4.3 million Room Exception on Aron Baynes. Outside of additional trades, the team can only bring on additional players on minimum contracts.
Next summer, the Celtics will be over the league’s projected cap of $102 million. They’ll need to decide on the 2018-19 options for Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier before November. Marcus Smart is eligible for an extension until the start of the coming season.
– Eric Pincus
With just Horford, Smart, Rozier and Brown returning from last year’s team, it’s tough to pinpoint what exactly the Celtics will excel at this upcoming season. The onus here falls on Stevens to put together a cohesive unit as quickly as possible, but many of their strongest traits could return this winter. In 2016-17, the Celtics made 12 three-pointers per game, third-most in the league and equal to the supercharged Warriors’ total.
Thomas, Crowder and Bradley accounted for 7.4 of those 12 aforementioned three-pointers last season, but the arrivals of Irving (2.5), Hayward (2.0) and Morris (1.5) should make the Celtics one of the league’s best shooting teams in 2017-18. Despite their reliance on young talent, the Celtics should continue on as a solid defensive unit – their 105.5 defensive rating was twelfth-best in 2016-17 – even without Crowder and Bradley in tow. Hayward and Morris are underrated defenders and if the youngsters (Brown, Smart and Rozier) are able to provide quality minutes in their increased roles, they’ll frustrate opposing teams for at least another year.
– Benny Nadeau
Despite the Celtics’ intense makeover, they’re still lagging behind in the rebounding department. In 2016-17, Boston grabbed just 42 rebounds a game, the NBA’s fourth-lowest mark. It bears repeating that the 6-foot-3 Bradley was Boston’s second-best rebounder last year as well. To shore up that front, the Celtics added both Ante Žižić and Daniel Theis to the roster this summer, but the former was included in the Irving-Thomas trade. At 25 years-old, Theis is a three-time German League champion and could be a valuable pickup behind Horford.
Additionally, the Celtics signed Aron Baynes as well, a 6-foot-10 center that spent the last two seasons with Detroit and averaged 4.4 rebounds last year. Still, the two new centers are unlikely to reverse Boston’s rebounding misfortunes alone. Although Boston has taken steps to address their biggest weakness from 2016-17, they’ll likely struggle on the boards for most of the season once again.
– Benny Nadeau
THE BURNING QUESTION
Following the Irving-Thomas trade, can Boston finally topple Cleveland?
This is undoubtedly a difficult question, but we won’t have a better idea until Thomas returns from that long-term hip injury, whenever that may be. The Cavaliers coasted through the regular season in 2016-17 and ceded the No. 1 position to Boston in the process, all before annihilating them in the conference finals. Ultimately, as long as Thomas is healthy come playoff time, Cleveland remains the odds-on favorite to reach the championship for the fourth straight season.
Derrick Rose is not an equal-level replacement for Thomas, but he’ll get the job done on most nights. Crowder, on the other hand, instantly becomes Cleveland’s third-best forward behind Kevin Love and James. Even if the Celtics can’t overcome the Cavaliers this season, this won’t be the last time this burning question is asked, particularly so if James leaves in 2018.
Although Hayward, Irving and Horford will form a fearsome trio in 2017-18, the future is still incredibly bright as well. Anchored by Stevens and guided by the internal development of Smart, Brown and Tatum, the Celtics’ franchise is looking quite strong these days.
– Benny Nadeau