How the Draft Picture Has Changed
The earliest mock drafts are often released almost two full years before the actual draft takes place. Considering how many of each year’s top prospects are one-and-done studs, these early mocks come out when the most notable players are still seniors in high school, which obviously leads to some early speculation that looks silly 18-24 months later when real life catches up to the some of the guesswork by even the business’ most esteemed draft experts.
While we here at Basketball Insiders publish our fair share of mocks over the course of the year, the good people at DraftExpress typically are the first to publish any sort of in-depth mock draft, and their first shot at the 2016 NBA Draft hit the web for the first time in September of 2014. Steve Kyler’s mock draft on-site here came out just this past October, about a month before the NCAA regular season got underway and any of these guys had played a single game.
March Madness is just around the corner, and as we all know there’s a lot that can happen both there and at that NBA Draft Combine later this spring that can change teams’ minds. But at this point, while the NCAA regular season heads toward its conclusion, we’re starting to get a sense of how the draft picture is going to shape out within a certain margin of error.
Seeing that picture round out makes it all the more interesting to have a gander at those earlier mock drafts that, while spot-on in regard to certain prospects, completely missed the boat on some others. The following is a look at the biggest changes between what experts thought would happen with this draft class and what actually appears to be shaping up a few months away from the draft itself:
Skal Labissiere’s Draft Stock Tumbles
Leading up to the 2015-16 college basketball season, there was an expectation that top prospects Ben Simmons and Labissiere would create considerable headaches for whatever NBA GM ended up with the top pick in this upcoming draft because both were viewed as elite, can’t-miss prospects. Now, all these months later, Simmons is being compared to LeBron James and Labissiere looks like he’ll be lucky to even be selected in the lottery.
Already 7’0 and unbelievably athletic, Labissiere has been muscled around all season as a member of the Kentucky Wildcats, and his poor rebounding numbers are a testament to his inability to establish himself as a presence in the paint. His numbers are even worse against top-50 teams than they are against the worse ones, and while he’s showed more than enough promise in terms of his defensive efficiency, he looks absolutely lost on offense more often than not. His instincts on that end are, so far, not very good.
Assuming he still declares for the draft this year (and he probably will), Labissiere is still a likely first-round pick based on athleticism and potential alone, but his actual play this year has been far from elite, and that’s not just because he plays for a loaded Kentucky team.
Brandon Ingram Establishes Himself as No. 2
While Ingram has been considered a top-five pick in this upcoming draft pretty much every step of the way, he has legitimately established himself as the second-best player in this draft, and there are some experts starting to wonder whether he should actually be getting more consideration as the No. 1 overall selection ahead of Simmons.
As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton points out, Ingram actually had a higher wins above replacement player projection for part of this season, and his skill set as a huge 6’10 shooter with range makes him an invaluable asset in today’s NBA. He’s also almost a year younger than Simmons (and several other prospects in this class), potentially giving him more time to develop and more elite years in the league.
But frankly, no one is taking Ingram over Simmons, despite the flashes of top-pick potential this year, but it’s also starting to look like nobody is taking anybody over Ingram at No. 2. At this point, that looks like his floor in the 2016 NBA Draft.
Malik Newman Goes From Top-5 to Second Round
Coming out of high school, Newman was one of the top five recruits of his class, which meant that the slashing scorer entered Mississippi State with big dreams of becoming a top-five draft selection the following June. A combination of inefficiency on offense and a few nagging injuries, however, has started to drop him out of first-round consideration, making it more likely that he’ll return to college for a sophomore year than accept such an uncertain NBA fate.
Newman is a scorer, but he just hasn’t shown the ability to create at the college level. That’s the kind of thing that worries NBA scouts and pushes a draft stock downward. Currently fighting a nagging back injury, Newman hasn’t even been given much of an opportunity to turn things around for himself. One thing’s for certain: he might not even be selected in the first-round this year, let alone the top five, so an extra year of seasoning could be in the books for him.
Buddy Hield’s Meteoric Rise
One thing nobody will argue with: Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield is one of the most entertaining players in college basketball right now. As a 6’4 senior, he doesn’t offer quite the same promise as some of the other players being considered around the 10-15 pick range in the draft, but he is having one of the more notable out-of-nowhere seasons in college basketball right now and generating a lot of buzz for himself in the process.
No mock draft from a year or two ago featured Hield anywhere on it unless it was deep into the second round, but now he’s shooting threes at an elite clip, which is a perfect skill to develop ahead of entering a league where few things are valued more.
Hield works his butt off and has proven his maturity and leadership over the course of this season in Oklahoma. That, combined with his actual numbers, have made him an intriguing player for middle-to-late lottery teams in need of a shooter. Nobody has risen more in the last six months than Hield.
Buying Into the Luwawu Hype
Outside of Dragan Bender, who generally has been labeled the top Euro player in this draft class, French prospect Timothe Luwawu has come into his own as one of the most intriguing international kids available this year. Currently playing for Mega Leks in Serbia, the same team that brought up Nikola Jokic, Luwawu has transformed into the sort of two-way wing that NBA teams salivate over. He’s tall (6’7) with a massive wingspan (6’11) and he offers both athleticism and shooting ability, according to DX’s Jonathan Givony. Defensively, he can guard four positions well and has the sort of quick hands that help make the Mega Leks defense so formidable.
He’s 20 years old and didn’t gain much traction with scouts a year ago when he first entered his name for draft consideration. His move to the Adriatic League this season has massively improved his stock, though, which is why it looks like he could be a first-round pick (and maybe even a lottery selection).
Calming Down on Diallo
Because of some questions about his high school transcript, Kansas freshman Cheick Diallo was forced to sit out the first five games of this season, which turned out to be a huge problem for a really talented kid that just hasn’t been able to carve out a role for himself on Bill Self’s loaded Jayhawks roster since.
Diallo, the former No. 7 overall prospect in the country, is long, quick and talented, especially defensively. But he hasn’t gotten the playing time at Kansas to help him stand out as a potential lottery pick, playing more than 20 minutes just once this season. Early mock drafts had him as a borderline lottery pick or better, but now he’s fallen into the late first round or early second round, with his seemingly limitless potential still serving as his strongest selling point.
Perry Ellis (29+ MPG) graduates this year, so minutes are in theory opening up for the Kansas frontcourt moving forward. Another year at school might be the best bet for Diallo at this point, because he still has a ton to prove before teams consider him as a sure-thing first-round selection, let alone a lottery possibility.
Kentucky Proves Fatal for Isaiah Briscoe
When Isaiah Briscoe, a former McDonald’s All-American with charisma for days, made the decision to attend the University of Kentucky, he did so with the understanding that UK would be the machine that catapulted him into the first-round of the NBA draft after just one season in the NCAA.
He probably thought at the time of declaring that he’d prove valuable enough in a crowded point guard rotation to get the minutes he needed to make his point, but thanks to massive years from Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray, that just hasn’t been the case. Scouts can forgive a lot in terms of playing time and production when it comes to Kentucky players, but Briscoe will have a big decision to make this spring. Should he declare despite a less-than-stellar freshman year or come back next season when those point guard minutes should be all his?
Once a sure-thing mid-first rounder, Briscoe now looks like a second-round pick with a tough decision to make about his future.
By no means does any of this mean that the draft picture is settled. A strong tournament or impressive combine showing could turn things around for a few of these bubble guys, but the point is that from the time we all start looking at mock drafts to the time that the mock drafts actually start carrying some credence, a lot can happen. Plenty of things change even after these guys are ranked appropriately and drafted onto NBA teams. Nothing is a given in this league, obviously, but it never stops being interesting watching how expectations shift and players respond.
NBA Daily: Clippers Looking Forward to Teodosic Return
Clippers hanging on and looking forward to Teodosic return, writes James Blancarte.
The Los Angeles Clippers have had a season of twists and turns. While the season is still young, they’ve dealt with setbacks, mostly in the form of a multitude of injures. In fact, the team’s misfortunes began almost immediately. On Oct 21 (the NBA season started earlier this year), Clippers guard Milos Teodosic went down with a plantar fascia injury. This stands as the first bump in the road for the Clippers, who have seen a number of key players go down.
Following the loss of Chris Paul this past offseason, the Clippers appeared to have salvaged their immediate future through a number of offseason transactions. Under the direction of the front office, which includes Lawrence Frank, VP of Basketball Operations, and Jerry West, a Clippers consultant, the Clippers traded Paul, which helped to remake the roster. West spoke of his approval of the Paul trade before the season started.
“The Clippers feel comfortable that we made out really well. We could have lost him for nothing,” West stated of the Paul trade. “I think it was kind of a win myself.”
The Paul trade brought in Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker and helped to eventually bring in Danilo Gallinari. A big part of the offseason makeover was the acquisition of European star Teodosic. Losing Paul meant that the Clippers were going to be without a highly talented, pass-first point guard for the first time since Paul’s acquisition during the 2011-2012 season.
Part of the strategy called for replacing Paul with both Beverley, who could match Paul’s defensive tenacity, and Teodosic, who could match Paul’s vision and passing. While neither player could match Paul’s overall brilliance (and Paul has been brilliant this season for the Rockets), the team hoped to create a winning environment around these two players.
Unfortunately, Teodosic went down quickly. Then Beverley experienced issues with his knee, culminating with season-ending microfracture surgery on his knee in late November. Combine this with Gallinari missing nearly a month with injuries and Blake Griffin going down for the next few months with an MCL sprain of his left knee recently, and the Clippers have struggled to stay competitive with lineups that have often included only one of the team’s opening day starters (center DeAndre Jordan). The franchise shouldn’t be completely surprised by the rash of injuries, as their offseason plan banked on players with questionable injury histories such as Griffin and Gallinari.
To fill in, the Clippers have also made use of a number of young, inexperienced players (not at all common in the Doc Rivers era), including playing 2017 second round pick, guard Sindarius Thornwell. Thornwell has benefited from the opportunity as is averaging 16.2 minutes a game and has even started in seven games (of 24 played). Thornwell confirmed the obvious regarding injuries.
“We’ve been playing without a lot of our core guys,” Thornwell stated.
Clippers head coach Doc Rivers also made it clear that injuries have affected the team.
“It’s not just Blake [Griffin]. If it was just Blake, we’d be OK,” Rivers stated recently. “But you miss [Danillo] `Gallo,’ Milos [Teodosic], Patrick Beverley.”
Currently, the team is well below .500 with a 9-15 record, good enough for 11th in the Western Conference. And while the team is ahead of a number of teams destined for the NBA lottery such as the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings, they aren’t too far removed from the eighth seed, currently held by the Utah Jazz, who are below .500 (13-14 record). It’s not reasonable for a team that has already suffered a nine-game losing streak and is only 4-6 in the last 10 games to expect another playoff berth, and the team has not yet signaled they have given up on the season.
The Clippers have stayed afloat by being extremely reliant on the individual offensive output of guards Austin Rivers and Lou Williams. Give Williams credit, as he has been brilliant recently including a game winning shot against the Washington Wizards on Saturday. Over the last 10 games, he is averaging 23.2 points on 62.7 true shooting percentage and 6.2 assists in 34.5 minutes per game, per nba.com. For reference, Williams has a career true shooting percentage average of 53.3 percent, per basketball-reference.com. However, this doesn’t scream long-term winning formula, nor should it — the team hasn’t recently had reliable offensive output outside of these guards who were originally expected to come off the bench for the Clippers.
Gallinari has since returned and played well in his second game back, an overtime win against the Wizards. Now the team has upgraded Teodosic’s condition to questionable and are hopeful that Teodosic makes his return Monday night against the Raptors.
“He’s ready. He’s close,” Rivers stated, speaking of Teodosic at a recent Clippers practice. “And that will help. In a big way.”
In addition to possibly helping their increasingly remote chances at making the playoffs, the Clippers have other goals. Teodosic is signed to a two-year deal, but the second-year is a player option allowing the European guard to leave after the season. Should Teodosic find that the Clippers are somehow not a good fit or a place where he can find success, he may opt out of the second year. If the team wants to ensure that the 30-year-old guard sees a bright future with the Clippers, they should hope that his return leads to the Clippers playing winning basketball.
Q&A With Cavaliers Rookie Cedi Osman
Basketball Insiders caught up with Cavaliers rookie Turkish swingman Cedi Osman to discuss a number of topics.
Monday afternoon, Basketball Insiders caught up with rookie Turkish swingman Cedi Osman to discuss a number of topics.
Basketball Insiders: Your first experience in the NBA, making the transition from international play and Euroleague—has it been what you’ve expected?
Cedi Osman: I mean of course it’s different rules and stuff and a different type of basketball. In international, it’s like more slow, but here it’s like always up and down, a lot of fast breaks.
Actually that’s the kind of basketball that I like. When I was playing overseas, I was also running a lot, up and down. I was that guy who was bringing the energy, so it was not hard for me to adjust to this basketball.
BI: With Euros in this league, it’s a growing amount. What does that tell you about the talent pool over there?
Osman: There’s a lot of talented players overseas—like really, a lot. Like you said, when you look around the NBA there’s a lot of European players. Starting with Dirk Nowitzki, he’s a big legend. He was the one who chose to do Europe [to show] what he can do. I can give you the example of two Turkish basketball players—Hedo Turkoglu and Mehmet Okur, he won one championship. I mean, there’s a lot of European players.
BI: Definitely. So how well do you know Hedo and Mehmet?
Osman: With Mehmet Okur, I was talking a couple times. I saw him one time in summer league this year. I talk to Hedo also because he’s president of Turkish Basketball Federation, so I was talking to him also.
BI: You’ve gotten some crucial minutes with the bench in the last couple of games. The same thing can be said when you played in New York and against the Hawks, too. What’s allowed you and that group to click together?
Osman: I always try to think positive. When I’m getting there on the court with the second unit, I’m trying to bring the energy because I’m the youngest one with Big Z [Ante Zizic] together.
Whenever I get on the court I’m trying to bring the energy on both sides of the court—on defense and offense—and I’m trying to run the floor the fastest that I can. Trying to guard players that are really good. And that also just improves my basketball [skills] a lot. I’m really happy that I am a part of this team and it’s also really important for me that I’m getting these crucial minutes.
BI: In a recent interview, you said that you don’t have a reason to be scared. You’re “cold-blooded.” Why do you feel that way?
Osman: I was playing overseas professionally since I was 16 years old…actually, I started getting paid when I was 12. [I’ve been] playing professionally for a long time. I played with a lot of good players. I’ve played also [with] former NBA players like Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic who was on the same team.
I know, yeah this is the best league in the world, but I don’t have a reason why to be scared because I was working for this—to come here, to give my best and to be stable to stay for long, long years. That’s why I said I don’t have a reason to be scared, because I know that I can play here.
BI: When you’re on the floor, what do you expect out of yourself? You said you want to get up and down the floor and give it to both ends, but is there anything outside of that, maybe mentality wise?
Osman: Of course. Not just as a rookie, but every time I get on the court like I said, I want to be always that guy who brings the energy. Also like, when we’re going bad or when we have a bad game, I want to change the momentum of the game. That’s what I’m working for a lot. We have great players and I have a lot of things to learn from them.
That’s why I said I’m really happy to be a part of this team, because we’re one of the best teams in the world. I hope that we’re going to win a championship in my first year. That would be a big thing for me.
BI: What kind of things have the coaching staff tried to help you improve in practice?
Osman: There’s a couple defensive plays that’ll be different. There’s also defensive three seconds. That was a bit of adjusting for me because in Europe you can always stay in the paint no matter what. There’s no defensive three seconds. Here it’s different, so it was a little bit hard for me to adjust in the beginning, but now I don’t have any problems and coaches are really helping me a lot.
BI: This team isn’t fully healthy yet, obviously with Isaiah Thomas coming back, Tristan Thompson coming back and Iman Shumpert down the road. That might affect playing time for some. You’ve gone to the G-League and played with the Canton Charge once before. You had a lot of minutes in that one game and did a really good job there. Is that something that you’re prepared for? Would you mind playing there again if that’s the case for you?
Osman: I was the one who asked for Canton, to go there, because before Shump got injured I didn’t have a lot of playing time. I said that I want to play whenever we have an off day, whenever I can go to play there, to run a lot, to try to do my thing. See that I’m working here before practices. That’s why I asked to go there. I talked to [Cavaliers general manager] Koby [Altman] and he said he supported me about that and that would be good for me.
BI: You have your own hashtag—#TheFirstCedi—can you explain the inspiration behind that and what it means?
Osman: So I’m working with one agency in Turkey and they’re doing a really good job about myself, my profile, my brand (laughs). They’re doing a really good job. “The First Cedi” is because my first name is Cedi and a lot of people are calling me Jedi, so that’s from Star Wars. The First Cedi—because in Turkey, ‘C’ reads as a ‘J’ so Jedi. First Jedi, that’s why.
BI: That’s pretty funny. Are you a Star Wars fan?
Osman: Yeah. I watch. But because it’s like old movies and that kind of stuff, but now new movies are better.
BI: It’s a locker room full of veterans here in Cleveland. Do you feel comfortable with everyone?
Osman: Definitely. I feel really comfortable. We have—I don’t want to say veteran players—but they are so good and they are big, big professionals. I have a lot of fun with them—locker room, when we go on the road, team dinners and that kind of stuff. It’s pretty cool.
The thing is, like it’s my first appearance. Overseas I’m coming to America and I was thinking the adjustment would be a little bit hard for me, but it was actually the opposite. From the first day that I met those guys, they helped me a lot.
BI: Is there anyone that you’ve gotten especially close to? You mentioned Big Z earlier.
Osman: Me and Z are pretty close. We’re speaking the same language. We played in the same league in Turkey. But like, I’m close with everybody. With Channing [Frye], we are always talking about the games and that stuff.
BI: Playing with LeBron—can you put that into words?
Osman: Look, it’s…(pauses), it’s something crazy. Because I was playing a game—obviously 2K—before when I was younger, I was playing with him and that stuff. Of course, it was my dream to be an NBA player, to play in the NBA. But when you’re playing on the same team with [Derrick] Rose, LeBron James, [Dwyane] Wade, Kevin Love, [Isaiah Thomas], it’s crazy.
I didn’t imagine that I would play with those players. And then, I just realize when I’m playing with them, the only thing that I can do is just work a lot and learn from them.
BI: When you hear these guys talk about you in a good light and coach Lue gives you praise, how does that make you feel?
Osman: That’s something really incredible. I mean… from the first day, from the media day when LeBron was in a press conference, he talked about everybody. But he talked also about me and he knew about Euroleague and that kind of stuff, so I was really happy. I was really proud and I was really happy about it. From the first day, he was so close to me. Not just him, but everybody.
BI: What do you think people need to know about your personality? Is there anything that hasn’t been said?
Osman: Actually, nothing special (laughs). I’m the guy who always smiles and with a lot of energy, always being positive talking to everybody, making a lot of jokes, trying to be friendly with everyone and the most important—I’m trying to be a good character.
BI: Last one—based off of this conversation alone, you’ve picked up the English language so easily. Who’s helped you on that side of things?
Osman: I actually had a lot of American players overseas on my previous team—it was Jordan Farmar, Jamon Gordon, Derrick Brown, he also played here, there was Bryant Dunston, Jayson Granger. I played a lot with Dario Saric, too, Furkan Korkmaz. Those were guys that were always talking English.
Just talking to them all the time. When they talked, I would just listen to them. I wasn’t listening to what they talked [about], but just for what kind of words they were using and what kind of sentences, the way they were talking. That’s how I learned English.
James Johnson: The Latest Product of Miami’s Culture
James Johnson speaks to Michael Scotto about his success within Miami’s culture.
James Johnson went from an NBA nomad to financially set for life.
“It really meant everything to me,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “To be in a situation in my life to overcome so much, and to finally get something like that where it’s long-term, where it’s somewhere I really want to be too, it was just all-in-all the best scenario.”
Johnson was drafted No. 16 overall in 2009 and spent time with four different teams, including two stints in Toronto, before his career year in Miami last season. During that span, Johnson also spent time in the G-League for the Iowa Energy (2011) and the Rio Grande Valley Vipers (2013).
Despite being nomadic through the first eight years of his career, Johnson never doubted his talent nor the hope that he’d find the right organizational fit.
“No, I never doubted myself,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “I never doubted the Lord neither. I’m a big firm believer of that. Every team I was on I always enjoyed my teammate’s success. I always was a real part of practice players and being a scout guy. My whole journey is just to figure out and experience all the other aspects of this game that we play. It says a lot where I can start helping other guys out like the rookies now and guys that are not getting any minutes right now, things like that. I’m a big testament to just staying ready, so you don’t have to get ready.”
After playing for the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, Sacramento Kings, and Memphis Grizzlies, what set Miami’s culture apart?
“Just their want-to, they’re no excuses, act like a champion on and off the court, and just that mental stability of always teaching you, not just drills, not just coaching just because they’re called coaches,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “They really inspire, they really help out, and it makes you want to be in that work environment.”
Johnson credits his relationship with President Pat Riley and coach Erik Spoelstra for helping him fulfill his potential.
“It’s great, its nothing like I’ve ever experienced before,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “It’s a little new still, but the freedom to be able to go into their office and just talk about normal things, you know, is one of the big reasons why I never want to leave this place.”
While playing on a one-year, $4 million deal, Johnson averaged a career-high 12.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in 27.4 minutes per game. Johnson also shot a career-high 34 percent from beyond the arc.
Looking ahead, can Johnson continue to improve at age 30 and beyond coming off his best year as a pro?
“I got paid, so there’s no pressure of playing for the money,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “It’s really playing for the wins, playing for your teammates, and playing with a pure heart, not going out there with any agendas, not going out there looking to live up to something that everybody else wants you to live up to. For me, it’s just gelling with our team and making sure our locker room is great like I was mentioning. Go out there and compete and trust each other.”
Johnson has put up nearly identical numbers through the first quarter of this season, averaging 11.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in 27.6 minutes per game. Johnson is also shooting a career-high 36 percent from beyond the arc.
“It’s my ninth year, and I’m just happy to be able to be part of the NBA for that long,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders.
Looking ahead, Johnson hopes to maximize years 10-12 in Miami during the rest of his contract and the remaining prime of his career.