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NBA AM: The History of Trading #1 Picks

The number one overall pick doesn’t often get traded around the draft, but we can learn a little from the times it has happened.

Joel Brigham

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While Father’s Day Weekend was absolutely loaded with insane NBA hullaballoo regarding potential Paul George trades and slightly less prominent Jimmy Butler trades, one draft trade actually happened, the first swap between teams since February 23, and it was a doozy.

The Boston Celtics agreed to trade the number one overall selection in Thursday’s NBA Draft to the Philadelphia 76ers for the third selection this year and another first round pick to be redeemed in the next year or two. Philadelphia will take Markelle Fultz with the pick, and nobody has any solid idea what Boston will do with the third pick, or even if they’ll still have that pick by Thursday.

What is interesting is that this is only one of a handful of times in league history that a team has traded the first overall selection between the time that the draft order was announced and the actual start of the NBA season. “The Markelle Fultz Trade,” as this probably will be called in perpetuity, is one of only seven instances that a team has traded either the top pick or the player selected with the first overall pick before he ever was able to play a single game for his own new team.

Per USA Today’s Adi Joseph:

That’s a list with some huge names on it, which isn’t surprising considering the first overall pick typically involves a transcendent, possibly generational player. Considering the dejection of Boston Celtics fans immediately following the Markelle Fultz trade on Saturday, this feels like a perfectly appropriate time to explore whether or not the teams trading away the top pick ended up with seller’s remorse at any point down the road.

2014: Cleveland Cavaliers’ first overall pick Andrew Wiggins is traded as part of a package to the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Kevin Love. Only three years later, we’re talking about Cleveland dangling Love again to possibly rein in Paul George on a one-year rental in hopes of having a better chance at winning another title with LeBron James. Still, there’s no question this deal worked out pretty well for the Cavaliers. With Love in tow, the Cavs have made three straight NBA Finals and have a Larry O’Brien trophy to show for it. Wiggins has been really good, but he wouldn’t have given the Cavs a better shot at winning a ring—not this soon, anyway.

1993: Orlando Magic’s first overall pick Chris Webber is traded to the Golden State Warriors for Penny Hardaway and three future first-round picks. In a lot of ways, this trade looks a lot like the one that Boston and Philadelphia just executed. Golden State, who had the third pick that year, really wanted consensus Chris Webber and made a massive gamble in offering the third pick and three future first rounders to get him.

Hardaway really impressed the Orlando front office, going so far as to call those execs multiple times ahead of the draft to beg for the opportunity to play for them. He knew they were leaning toward drafting Webber, but Hardaway flat-out told them that was a mistake. He did a full-court scrimmage with other college players the week before the draft and convinced Orlando to make the deal to pair Penny with Shaquille O’Neal. The later first-round picks did okay, too. In 2001, for example, one of those picks became Rookie of the Year Mike Miller.

But Hardaway obviously didn’t make it long in the league before experiencing a series of devastating injuries. There were four great seasons with Penny and Shaq, but after that, it was pretty clear that Webber was the better long-term pro, even if that didn’t wind up being with Golden State. Frankly, this trade probably worked out better for Orlando long-term, even if Webber ended up being the better player. It’s hard to say that, equipped with the information they had at the time, they made a mistake. They really didn’t. Three extra first-rounders is a ton of value to drop two spots to take the player you liked better anyway.

1986: Philadelphia 76ers first overall pick Brad Daugherty is traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for forward Roy Hinson. Coming off a 54-win season, the Sixers looked primed to get even better by adding the top overall selection in that year’s draft. Charles Barkley was the team’s cornerstone at the time, and with Julius Erving and Moses Malone not getting any younger, the idea of adding the top overall pick would have helped solidify the team’s future considerably. Instead, Philadelphia shipped off Malone and that top pick in the same day, with the draft selection getting swapped for Hinson and $800,000 cash—a ton of money for the NBA in 1986.

To be fair, Philly GM Pat Williams (who coincidentally ended up in Orlando and also would ship off the top overall pick in the Penny Hardaway trade seven years later) admitted it was hard to get a grasp on that infamous draft class, which featured several players who struggled with drugs. Daugherty wasn’t one of those guys, however, and he’d go on to make five All-Star teams in his eight-year career with the Cavaliers. Hinson played only a single season for the Sixers.

1980: Boston Celtics top overall pick Joe Barry Carroll is traded along with Rickey Brown, the 13th pick, to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for third overall pick Kevin McHale and Warriors center Robert Parrish. Let this serve as evidence that maybe Boston knows what it’s doing in trading down. Danny Ainge obviously isn’t Red Auerbach, but this is a trade where the team acquiring the top overall pick is the one struggling with the decision rather than the team sending it away. Not only did the Celtics win the NBA title that very season (they won only 29 games the year prior in Larry Bird’s rookie season), but they also put together a Hall of Fame frontcourt for the next decade.

***

The other two instances of teams trading away the top overall pick were both in the 1950s, long before anything we’d consider the “Modern NBA,” so they don’t really have much impact in terms of historical analysis as to whether or not moving that pick tends to be regretful.

Based on the rest of the sample size, though, we have an instance in which trading the top pick was a huge mistake, one where it proved a masterstroke of genius, and two where both teams got exactly what they wanted out of the deal with no real definitive “winner” or “loser” of the trade.

Since the last two instances of top overall picks are the ones that turned out so evenly, it’s easy to see how this deal could end up similarly, but it obviously is too easy to call it either way. Ainge either will be seen as the guy who traded away a superstar in Fultz, or he will be viewed as the guy who somehow ended up with seven first-round picks in two drafts, more than enough to use those assets to assemble an elite superteam in Boston.

It will be years before we get an answer, but the historical odds seem to suggest that, at the very least, he won’t really, really regret it.

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NBA Daily: With No Regrets, Hamidou Diallo Is Primed For Next Step

Hamidou Diallo spoke at the NBA Draft Combine about his decision to return to school, what he learned and the advice he’s given to his teammates.

Ben Nadeau

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When potential first-rounders return to collegiate basketball, it’s typically about raising their stock. Every year, somebody goes back to school and, more often than not, that player goes higher in the draft the following year. It’s a nice story, sure, but it doesn’t always end up that way. Not everybody goes back to school and dominates. Not everybody goes from a fringe first-rounder to a no-brainer lottery pick.

In some instances — even despite receiving real, tangible on-court experience — they fall even lower.

For Hamidou Diallo, that’s exactly what happened — still, he’s not sweating it at all.

“Everybody’s different — let me just start off by saying that,” Diallo said at the NBA Draft Combine last week. “Everybody’s a different player, everybody has different needs. Everybody has a different family base. Everybody’s put in different situations. I’m just happy I was put in a situation I could make either or decision — go back to school or come out.

“I feel like I made the right decision and if I had to do it again, I’m doing the same thing — I’m going back to school and playing a year at Kentucky and trying to make it work.”

Coming out of high school, Diallo was ranked as the No. 11 prospect back in the class of 2017, a five-star athlete sought after by not just Kentucky, but many of Division-I’s annual royalty — Connecticut, Syracuse, Kansas, Arizona and Indiana — as well. During his senior season at Putnam Science Academy, Diallo averaged 19 points, six rebounds and three assists per game and his ability to play above the rim rightfully anointed him as a can’t-miss teenager.

Shortly after enrolling early at Kentucky in January, Diallo redshirted that spring semester in order to practice and lift with the Wildcats without sacrificing potential NBA stock or losing a year of eligibility. The plan was to learn the playbook, adjust to life at the collegiate level and prepare for the 2017-18 season. Of course, that decision did leave an interesting wrinkle in the mix. If he wanted to, Diallo could’ve gone pro without ever playing a game for Kentucky — and he almost did.

Diallo could only watch as De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo took Kentucky all the way to the Elite Eight — but that didn’t stop the high-flyer from joining the three future lottery picks at the NBA Draft Combine last spring. Among other impressive physical measurements, Diallo took down a combine-best 44.5-inch vertical leap and left many franchises wondering if the then-18-year-old could be an intriguing first-round option..

Just minutes before the pre-set midnight deadline for collegiate returners, Diallo took his name out of the draft pool. While Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reported that Diallo didn’t receive a guarantee high enough to keep him in the draft — it still ultimately made sense to stick his original plan.

So, he went back to Kentucky.

Diallo would start all 37 games for the Wildcats this season, averaging 10 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 24.8 minutes per game. Admittedly, it was not the breakout year most had anticipated from Diallo, but he played an important role for a Kentucky squad that won 26 contests before reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed. But according to Diallo — now one year stronger, wiser and better prepared — his on-court action wasn’t the only big step he’s taken in this extensive process.

“I learned how to face adversity — I was put in points throughout the whole year where I had to face adversity, where I had to see what type of person I am,” Diallo said. “So I learned how to fight myself, and the biggest thing Coach Cal told me was how to fight myself. How to conquer yourself — that was the quote we heard a lot, each and every day.

“Conquer yourself — that’s one thing I learned how to do pretty well. When things aren’t going my way, I learned how to play through it and I learned how to play for the team — it was a great year for me.”

Still, presumably, Diallo will be drafted at a lower position than he would have a year ago — for better or for worse. In the grand scheme of things, Diallo looks like he has no regrets about trading a little money for a full season of collegiate basketball, gaining experiences and routines that will ideally shape a long, successful professional career. Currently, Diallo is projected all over the map — from No. 42 in Basketball Insiders’ 60-pick mock draft to No. 55 in NBADraft.net’s most recent edition.

Even with his draft fate soundly undecided at this time, Diallo still offered support for fellow prospective draftee Anfernee Simons, a 6-foot-3 guard that spent the year training at IMG Academy instead of in Division-I.

“100%, I support him, I’m all for him,” Diallo said. “Coming out, some guys are just not into college as much. Some guys want to go on to be a pro, it’s been his dream ever since he was young. He sees himself as one of the best players in the draft and for him to make the jump.

“I’m happy for him, maybe it becomes a trend, maybe it doesn’t — but for a guy to be chasing a dream, I can’t be nothing but happy for him.”

Diallo himself signed with an agent in April, which means he can’t return to Kentucky for another season — there’s no turning back now. Once again, Diallo measured well at the NBA Draft Combine, but he still declined to participate in the 5-on-5 portion, opting to leave some mystery in the tank ahead of his private workouts. Although Diallo could’ve certainly used the boost from a stellar scrimmage performance in Chicago, he’s always stuck to his plan — no reason to change his mind now.

Wherever Diallo ends up being selected in June, he’ll know that it’s just the next step in a particularly unusual road to the NBA. And whoever drafts Diallo will gain a hyper-athletic 19-year-old with all the physical tools to become a tenacious defender and a talented scorer. Detractors may point to his below average rate from three-point range last season (33.8 percent), but he also notched plenty of impressive individual outings along the way — like his 22-point, eight-rebound, one-steal and two-block effort in the NCAA Tournament’s second round.

For those that continue to sleep on Diallo, he’ll be as ready as ever to prove them wrong for the indefinite future — now, he just needs his chance. But when Diallo was asked about any advice he had imparted on P.J. Washington and Jarred Vanderbilt, two of Kentucky’s water-testing youngsters, he offered up something that’s clearly driven him since he went back to school.

“For P.J. and Jarred, I went through the process last year, I mean, just make the right decision for you and your family,” Diallo said. “Nobody can tell you what’s right, you’re going to be the one that’s gonna have to live it. So, if you feel like it’s right for you to leave, then so be it. If you feel like it’s right for you to go back to school, then go back to school.

“But don’t let anyone dictate that decision for you, just have you and your family sit down and make the right decision.”

At long last, that career-changing decision is about to finally pay off for Hamidou Diallo.

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NBA Daily: Troy Brown Poised To Bring Versatility To The Next Level

Coming into the NBA Draft with just one season of experience at the collegiate level, Troy Brown feels that his wide range of skills makes him a player who has a lot to offer.

Spencer Davies

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Coming into the NBA Draft with just one season of experience at the collegiate level, Troy Brown feels that his wide range of skills makes him a player who has a lot to offer.

Originally recruited as a point guard by Dana Altman at the University of Oregon, the 19-year-old naturally fell into the wing position as his body matured, but he wasn’t your average one trick pony.

“It wasn’t really an option,” Brown said of the transition at the Draft Combine in Chicago. “It was more so because I grew, just a lot of size and stuff like that and playing with a lot of smaller guards. It hasn’t really been a problem for me.”

In his freshman year with the Ducks, Brown filled the stat sheet. He averaged 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists in over 31 minutes per game and finished third in the Pac-12 with 55 total steals.

Among his class across the NCAA, Brown was one of four players to put forth those averages in scoring, crashing the boards and dishing out passes. If you can’t tell, there’s more than one strong suit in his game and he feels the same way.

“I would just say being able to rebound at my size,” Brown said of what he best brings to the floor. “I feel like being able to push it and not having to kick it up to a guard. Being able to create fast breaks for my teammates and stuff like that and get guys open really helps a lot.”

Brown measured in close to 6-foot-7 and 208 pounds on the dot with over a 6-foot-10 wingspan, which ideally will make slot him as a three at the professional ranks. He’s a solid defender as well, though he’ll definitely need to put on more weight to match up with the bigger wings in the league.

That being said, he is absolutely capable of playing point forward and already has modeled his game after a mix of different guys in the NBA, including veterans and rookies who impact their teams on a nightly basis.

“I definitely grew up and watched Penny Hardaway a lot,” Brown said. “Ben Simmons is a really big guard—triple-double type of player, that’s how I feel like I am.

“Even the role players like Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston. Just big guards. Jayson Tatum, even though he played at the wing a little more, just a great mid-range game and post game.”

Most of those talents he mentioned have the all-around game, including a reliable perimeter presence. That’s where the biggest knock on him comes into play.

On over three attempts per game beyond the arc, Brown shot just a hair over 29 percent from three. As the game has become more and more driven on stretching the floor, that won’t cut it in the constantly evolving pro environment.

The numbers aren’t in his favor, but Brown believes his performance wasn’t indicative of his true ability with his jumper.

“I never felt like I couldn’t shoot before and I still don’t feel that way now,” Brown said. “I’m still very confident in my jump shot. Right now it’s just getting adjusted to the new three-point line, the NBA line. Once I get that locked down, I feel like I’ll be really good.”

If you’re familiar with the Oregon basketball tree and the league itself, there were a number of players who made the most of their opportunities this past year.

Jordan Bell is a fast up-and-coming forward for the Golden State Warriors. The Memphis Grizzlies got a gem in Dillon Brooks. Even Tyler Dorsey got a shot at significant minutes late in the season with the Atlanta Hawks.

Brown didn’t play with any of them, but admits he’s had conversations with Brooks about the entire pre-draft process, receiving “words of wisdom” whenever they’ve gotten the chance to talk.

As for his own expectations for year one in the NBA, Brown agreed that those types of roles are a good starting point and hopes to follow that path before bigger things come his way.

“Of course I want to be the best I can,” Brown said when asked about his goals. “I want to be the best player, but coming in as a rookie you have to really stick with yourself and know what teams you’re coming in and playing with and your role on the team.

“I feel like the more you perfect your role, the more minutes you’ll have. By doing that, I feel like I can climb up the board and become a starter.”

In order to do that, he’ll have to improve his consistency from game-to-game.

But make no mistake about it—Brown has the tools, the work ethic and the personality to become a potential first-round steal outside of the lottery.

And with a toolbox as deep as his, there’s no reason to believe Brown won’t achieve his aspirations.

“Ultimately I feel like because of my versatility on the court, I can do a lot of different things,” Brown said.

“It’s just playing with the ball in my hands I feel a lot more comfortable making plays for my teammates and making the right plays and playing the right way.”

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NBA Daily: The Restricted Free Agency Crapshoot

With free agency money scarce, restricted free agents may be impacted the most this summer, writes Lange Greene.

Lang Greene

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The NBA playoffs are heating up as we approach the Finals, but there are other topics in the league simmering beneath the surface. The 2018 NBA Draft is less than a month away and the annual free agency period begins on July 1.

After rampant league wide spending the past two summers, free agency money won’t be as plentiful in 2018. The biggest group impacted will be players entering the land of restricted free agency. Extending an offer sheet to a restricted free agent is always tricky – especially at the beginning of the free agency period. In short, the offering team gives up their cap space while the player’s current team has time to decide whether or not to match the contract. If the current team does so, the offering team not only misses out on the player but also other free agents who are likely to come off the board during the waiting period.

For this reason most league executives are hesitant to dip their toes into the restricted free agency pond, especially if their cap space is limited in nature.

This summer there will be multiple players entering restricted free agency looking for significant pay bumps with an uncertain market for their respective skill set. The biggest question will be whether these guys ultimately find a deal to their liking or gamble on themselves and take the qualifying offer.

Taking the qualifying offer is a risky alternative. But it gives players an opportunity to showcase their skills in a contract year and enter unrestricted free agency the following summer.

Dallas Mavericks center Nerlens Noel is the most recent example. The former lottery pick reportedly turned down a four-year, $70 million deal last summer and signed a one-year contract worth $4.2 million. Fast forward, Noel played in just 30 games this season, was suspended for five games for a positive drug test and also tore a ligament in his left thumb. Noel is far from done as he is under 25 years of age, but the one year gamble did not work in his favor and he will enter free agency this summer looking for another prove it type of contract as a consequence.

Today we’ll take a look at some players who may face the same decision as Noel did last summer. With limited cap space, will these players take the one-year qualifying offer or be able to secure a mega deal in free agency? Please note, we are excluding guys almost guaranteed to receive substantial deals this summer (i.e. Zach LaVine, Clint Capela, Jusuf Nurkic, etc.)

Marcus Smart, Guard, Boston Celtics

After signing All-Stars Al Horford and Gordon Hayward in free agency the past two summers, the Celtics aren’t projected to have cap space. But the team can match any offer for Smart. The question is whether president of basketball operations Danny Ainge will proactively retain arguably the team’s toughest defender or allow the market to set itself. Smart is a tough as nails competitor, but the Celtics will have decisions coming up in the next couple of years on Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier. Not to mention Horford, who has a player option for the 2020 season, can also elect to enter free agency next summer. What exactly is the market for a sub 40 percent shooter from the field (sub 30 percent from three-point range) and a player who has only played more than 70 regular season games once in four years?

Rodney Hood, Guard-Forward, Cleveland Cavaliers

Hood was likely on his way to an eight figure per year salary, until he arrived in Cleveland. While with the Utah Jazz, Hood established himself as a double-digit scorer with high upside. However in 13 playoff games with the Cavaliers he is averaging 4.9 points on 42 percent shooting and 16 percent from three-point range. Hood has also been in and out of the rotation with an unfavorable plus-minus. Hood has upside but his market value has likely taken a hit entering free agency this summer.

Julius Randle, Forward, Los Angeles Lakers

Randle has increased his scoring and field goal percentage every season since entering the league. He is a traditional power forward and doesn’t shoot the three ball consistently, which limits his value in some circles. Randle is also seemingly the odd man out in Los Angeles if the team is able to secure two max level guys this summer with their cap space. This puts Randle in a holding pattern. But the second half of the regular season was very promisinmg as Randle put up 19.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per game after the All-Star break.

Jabari Parker, Forward, Milwaukee Bucks

Parker was once considered the Bucks’ foundational building block. Yes, even more so than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Funny how a span of less than five years can change career trajectories. Parker has played in just 183 out of 328 regular season games since entering the league. 56 percent availability. He has displayed a knack for scoring, when healthy, but his role during the team’s playoff run this season was wildly inconsistent. Parker’s injury history is a red flag for potential suitors and the Bucks may opt to let Parker’s market value play out before issuing a mega deal this summer.

Dante Exum, Guard, Utah Jazz

Exum flashes potential, but he has also missed plenty of time due to injuries. Exum has appeared in just 162 out of a possible 328 regular season games since entering the league. Young guys can only get better when playing and Exum just hasn’t had the court time to warrant a significant pay increase without leveraging the risk associated with his injury history.

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