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NBA AM: The Problem With Dwight Howard

Trading Dwight Howard would not be about any one thing, it would be about multiple issues converging at once… The Miami HEAT face a tough choice with Hassan Whiteside.

Steve Kyler

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The Problem with Dwight Howard: By now you have likely heard at least some incarnation of the trade rumors involving Houston’s Dwight Howard. There have been reports that he’s unhappy, that the Rockets have explored trading him and that at some point he’ll be dealt.

All of that my very well turn out to be true. However, the problem with those notions is that it’s based on a fundamental problem: NBA free agency.

Before we dig too far into the point, let’s clear a few things up. No one in Houston is happy. To lay all of the unrest on Howard radically marginalizes the severity of the discord around the team.

Howard has not asked for a trade, has not expressed an interest in a trade and, for the time being, is focused solely on righting his own game and trying to help his team get out of the rut they are in.

Howard does have a $23.282 million player option in his contract that he is likely going to pass on accepting, making him an unrestricted free agent in July. This is not at all a surprise to the Rockets; it was clearly articulated that Dwight would enter free agency in 2016 – that was part of the deal that got him to Houston and everyone has known from his first day with the Rockets that on July 1, Howard would be seeking a new deal. The option year was injury insurance and assuming Howard finishes the season healthy, he’ll be a free agent.

The problem teams in the NBA face with pending free agents, especially unrestricted ones, is the current NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement does not offer much of an incentive for players to stay in their current deals by way of an extension, so teams have a risk of losing a player for nothing in return.

Extensions are additional years added on to the current deal, and those new year values are based on the current year. In Howard’s case, if he hits unrestricted free agency he becomes eligible for 35 percent of the salary cap, which could be a starting salary as much as $30 million in the first year depending on where the actual 2016 salary cap is set. That’s roughly $6.8 million more than his option year.

This is where things get compelling. If you are the Houston Rockets, do you want to invest what could be four years and more than $120 million into a 30-year-old Howard, who is posting some of the worst numbers of his career?

The Rockets don’t have to bring Howard up to other teams when they call about trades. The other teams know exactly what Houston is facing, hence the rumors.

One of the things that gets lost in the trade rumors that make it to the media is that both sides of a conversation are savvy deal makers. It’s pretty rare that one team is shopping a singular player. The conversation is usually more vague and exploratory in a ‘what are you guys looking to do’ kind of way.

In Houston’s case, teams smell blood in the water so when the Rockets come calling – as they have done with virtually every team in the league – the other side tends to swing for the fences, knowing that Houston has to do something to salvage their season. Here is where Howard’s name comes up.

Houston is looking for a change. They have called on the likes of New Orleans’ Ryan Anderson and Phoenix’s Markieff Morris, but both teams want a lot more than the roster parts Houston would be willing to part with.

As the Rockets work the system to find a deal, those around the league understand what’s playing out.

There is a sense that for Houston to really make a major transaction they’ll have to move something of real value and Howard still carries tremendous value. Factor in his pending free agency and that’s where the stories come from. If Houston is middling in the Western Conference come the trade deadline, will they really stay committed to Howard?

Today that answer is absolutely, however tomorrow could yield a very different answer.

Given where the Rockets are in the standings, they would be foolish not to at least listen to incoming offers on everyone on the roster, but listening to an offer is a very different thing than having a willingness to deal on that offer.

The Rockets are not trying to trade Howard, that’s not where they are starting conversations, but there is a sense that eventually the Rockets will have to make a decision and that’s where the belief that Howard will ultimately be traded stems from.

It’s not because he’s unhappy. It’s not because no one in Houston is happy with where the team is at or how the team is playing. It’s not because of his contract option. It’s not because Howard isn’t playing at the top of his game. The Rockets may have no choice on Howard for all of those reasons combined and, for the biggest reason of all, he could return the most real value to a Rockets team that’s clearly going backwards.

If the Rockets had a clear cut advantage in free agency, trading Howard might not be a factor at all. But when you seriously survey the situation the ability to lose Howard for nothing, it puts him at the top of other teams wish lists – especially if there is a sense Howard would sign a new deal wherever he may land.

The Rockets are not trying to trade Howard; the harsh reality is they may have very little choice given all of the factors combined, especially if they want to turn things around.

That’s the real problem with Dwight Howard.

The Problem with Hassan Whiteside: While we are on the subject of trade rumors involving starting centers, Miami’s Hassan Whiteside has found his name in the mix as it relates to rumors involving Houston’s Dwight Howard and Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins.

Both Houston and Sacramento have done their very best to squash the idea that either of their big men are available in trade, and the HEAT have done the same with Whiteside.

Denying trade rumors is a big part of December and just like the rumors themselves, denials should be taken with a grain of salt, because what else would a team say?

For Miami, they face an interesting predicament with Whiteside since they do not hold Bird Rights on his free agency, meaning to retain him beyond this season the HEAT would have to use their cap space to re-sign him.

Whiteside was drafted in 2010 by the Sacramento Kings and was ultimately waived. He’s had a few stops in the NBA, mostly as a camp invite until he landed in Miami last year and exploded into one of the better centers in the NBA. As a result of his journey, Whiteside will not be a restricted free agent in July, he will be unrestricted and looking for the largest contract he can receive.

The HEAT could have the money for Whiteside depending on how they manage their cap holds and pending free agents, but with a starting salary expected to be north of $20 million on a multi-year deal, the HEAT have a tough choice to make. Do they look to lock up Whiteside and call it an offseason, or do they look to let Whiteside walk and spend that free agent money on another higher profile player?

The HEAT have eyes for Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant, and while that may be a pipe dream, they won’t have cap space to make an offer to Durant and keep Whiteside without a sign and trade or someone taking radically less than market value, which in Whiteside’s case is not going to happen.

As things stand right now the HEAT have what looks to be $48 million in guaranteed contracts. Assuming the salary cap comes in at the rumored $92 million, the HEAT would reasonably have about $44 million to play with. On the surface that seems like more than enough room to go after another player and pay Whiteside, but Dwyane Wade will carry a cap hold worth $30 million while Luol Deng will carry a $13.19 million hold. Assuming the HEAT renounce Deng, they still have to get Wade signed or renounced before they’d have cap cash to spent on Whiteside.

If the HEAT hang on to Wade, his new number eats into the $44 million in space, then the HEAT would have to ink Whiteside, leaving Miami with what could be less than $10 million to flesh out what could be six to seven roster spots.

The good news for Miami is that they have a level playing field on re-signing Whiteside. The bad news is they may not have the ability to do a lot more than sign Whiteside this summer (if they go that route) given the lack of Bird Rights.

The other problem for the HEAT is if they have decide that Whiteside isn’t going to be worth the money next summer, his $981,348 contract this year won’t return much value in trade all by itself.

Miami is saying all the right things about Whiteside, but given his situation, the HEAT might be better suited exploring other options in free agency, unless Wade is willing to give the HEAT a massive discount in July, which did not play out well last summer.

Unless Miami is willing to pack in a ton of other roster pieces, finding a trade that really returns value for the HEAT might be harder than you’d think for a player of Whiteside’s caliber because any team that acquires him would face the same Bird Right problems and would need cap space to sign him, which then bring up the notion of why give up assets for a player you have no advantage in re-signing in July?

That is the problem with Hassan Whiteside, as favorable as his contract seems today, it’s going to be a challenge to re-sign him and improve the roster.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @JCameratoNBA, @iamdpick, @jblancartenba, @eric_saar and @CodyTaylorNBA .

Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.

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Reviewing the Nurkic Trade: Denver’s Perspective

The Denver Nuggets have been on a miraculous run this postseason, but that doesn’t mean that they’re infallible. Drew Maresca reviews the 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland.

Drew Maresca

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The Denver Nuggets are fresh off of a 114-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, pulling within three wins of the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals. But what if I told you that the Nuggets’ roster could be even more talented by acting more deliberately in a trade from three years ago?

While Denver won on Tuesday night, they lost a nail bitter on Sunday – for which most of the blame has been pointed at a defensive breakdown by Nuggets’ center Mason Plumlee, who was procured in the aforementioned 2017 trade. What did it cost Denver, you ask? Just Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.

Nurkic was a 2014-15 All-Rookie second team member. He played 139 games over 2.5 seasons in Denver, averaging 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game. He showed serious promise, but Denver had numerous reasons to pursue a trade: he’d suffered a few relatively serious injuries early in his career (and he’s continued to be injury-prone in Portland), butted heads with head coach Michael Malone and – most importantly – the Nuggets stumbled on to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets eventually attempted a twin-tower strategy with both in the starting line-up, but that experiment was short-lived — with Jokic ultimately asking to move to the team’s second unit.

The Nuggets traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2017 (along with a first-round pick) in exchange for Plumlee, a second-round pick and cash considerations. Ironically, the first-round pick included in the deal became Justin Jackson, who was used to procure another center, Zach Collins – but more on that in a bit.

As of February 2017, Plumlee was considered the better player of the two. He was averaging a career-high 11 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists through 54 games – but it was clear that at 27, he’d already maximized his talent.

Conversely, Nurkic was only 23 at the time of the trade with significant, untapped upside. In his first few seasons with Portland, Nurkic averaged 15 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while establishing himself as a rising star. As noted above, injuries have continued to be a problem. Nurkic suffered a compound fracture in his tibia and fibula in March 2019, forcing him to miss a majority of this current campaign. The COVID-19-related play stoppage in March gave Nurkic extra time to get his body right, and he returned to action in July inside the bubble.

And he did so with a vengeance. Nurkic demonstrated superior strength and footwork, and he flashed the dominance that Portland hoped he would develop, posting eight double-doubles in 18 contests. He averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and while his play dipped a bit in the playoffs – partially due to a matchup with first-team All-NBA star Anthony Davis – he still managed 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds in the five-game series. So it’s fair to say that Nurkic is still on his way toward stardom.

But the Nuggets are in the conference finals – so all’s well that ends well, right? Not so fast. To his credit, Plumlee is exactly who Denver expected him to be. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in three seasons with Denver since 2017 – but to be fair, Plumlee is asked to do less in Denver than he had in Portland. Still, it’s fairly obvious that they’re just not that comparable.

Plumlee is a good passer and an above-average defender that’ll compete hard and isn’t afraid to get dirty – but he has limitations. He doesn’t stretch the floor and he is a sub-par free throw shooter (53.5 percent in 2019-20). More importantly, he’s simply not a major offensive threat and his repertoire of moves is limited.

High-level takeaway: Defenses tend to game plan for opponents they view as major threats – Nurkic falls into this category. Other guys pack the stat sheet through putback attempts, open looks and single coverage alongside the guys for whom opposing defenses game plan – that’s a more appropriate description of Plumlee.

On to the wrench thrown in by Zach Collins’ involvement. Statistically, Collins is about as effective as Plumlee – he averaged 7 points and 6.3 rebounds through only 11 games in 2019-20 due to various injuries – and he possesses more upside. The 22-year-old is not as reliable as Plumlee but given his age and skill set, he’s a far better option as a support player playing off the bench. He stretches the floor (36.8 percent on three-point attempts in 2019-20), is an above-average free throw shooter (75 percent this season) and is a good defender. Looking past Nurkic for a moment, would the Nuggets prefer a 22-year-old center that stretches the floor and defends or a 30-year-old energy guy?

Regardless of your answer to that question, it’s hard to argue that Nurkic should have returned more than Plumlee, definitely so when you factor in the first-round pick Denver included. There is obviously more at play: Denver was probably considering trading Nurkic for some time before they acted – did they feel that they could increase his trade value prior to the trade deadline in 2016-17? Maybe. Further, Nurkic and his agent could have influenced the Nuggets’ decision at the 2017 deadline, threatening to stonewall Denver in negotiations.

Had Nurkic been more patient or the Nuggets acted sooner before it became abundantly clear that he was on the move, Denver’s roster could be even more stacked than it is now. Ultimately, the Nuggets have a plethora of talent and will be fine – while it appears that Nurkic found a long-term home in Portland, where he owns the paint offensively. Denver can’t be thrilled about assisting a division rival, but they’re still in an enviable position today and should be for years to come.

But despite that, this deal should go down as a cautionary tale – it’s not only the bottom feeders of the league who make missteps. Even the savviest of front offices overthink deals. Sometimes that works in their favor, and other times it does not.

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NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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