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NBA AM: Will They Keep The Restricted Free Agents?

The Bulls, Magic and Thunder have some potential free agents that may be hard to keep.

Steve Kyler



The Future Restricted:  NBA teams have a window that opens in July and runs through the end of October to reach contract extensions with their rookie scale players entering their fourth season. For the most part, a small handful of deals get done every year and this year was no exception. Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving was the first to ink a deal, and several others followed.

There were, however, three players in very different situations that tried to reach a deal and ultimately did not, making them free agents in July. All three players are likely to receive the necessary qualifying offer sheets to make them restricted free agents. Here is where things stand today:

Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls, $3.013 Million Qualifying Offer

The Bulls and Butler negotiated off and on all summer, ultimately arriving at an 11th hour offer in the $11 million range per season on a four-year deal. The contract talks were cordial and respectful; both sides genuinely tried to make a deal. Ultimately, Butler saw that the Bulls’ valuation was based more on his performance last year than what his potential going forward could be. Between having confidence in himself and what others in the marketplace started to receive in contracts, Butler decided to leave some $44 million in guaranteed money on the table and bet on himself.

So far, with his play this season, that bet is looking pretty good.

Butler is averaging 21.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists on 48.8 percent shooting from the field and 30.8 percent shooting from three-point range.

So what does that mean for the Bulls going forward?

Both sides still very much want to continue the relationship, so there is not a sense that Butler is going to try and find a deal Chicago won’t match. However, not reaching a deal does motivate Butler’s representation to find a significant offer.

While Butler likely gets issued the $3.013 million qualifying offer, he does carry a cap hold of $5.021 million. The Bulls are sitting on $60.16 million in guaranteed salaries, and will likely be a lot closer to $66-67 million in cap commits when they open free agency, meaning they will likely not have cap space.

This is important because not having cap space means the Bulls will get their two salary cap exceptions, which is important to their stance on Butler’s free agency.

If the Bulls opt not to match an offer sheet to Butler for whatever reason, the best they can do in finding a replacement player is the mid-level salary cap exception, set to be worth a bit more than the $5.3 million it is valued at today.

So, it will not be a case of giving the money to Butler or choosing to spend that kind of money on another player. They can either spend on Butler or try and replace him on the cheap if they cannot construct a sign-and-trade deal.

The Bulls as a franchise have been luxury tax adverse; however, matching a major offer to Butler does not mean the Bulls have to be a tax payer. They can, and likely would, look to reduce their tax exposure at some point in trade.

It’s pretty clear Butler made a good decision betting on himself. He is likely going to draw a serious $55-$65 million offer sheet in July. It’s very likely the Bulls will match such an offer sheet, but it’s far from a given.

The Bulls will have to decide if Butler is really worth the long-term salary he’ll command in free agency or if they want to try and replace him in free agency with an exception.

The good news for Bulls fans is there really is nothing stopping Chicago from matching an offer on Butler, even one all the way to the NBA’s max contract amount of $16.57 million in the first year.

The question is will they? That’s unclear at this point.

Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic, $$3.394 Million Qualifying Offer

Unlike Butler, Harris and the Magic never really negotiated. There was a single conversation that ended with the notion of talking again, and that never happened.

To be fair to the Magic, they really didn’t need to talk again as they have mountains of cap flexibility and a roster loaded with young players, many of which play the same position. They could afford to let Harris play out the season and see what he really means to them.

So far on the season Harris is posting career-best numbers across the board including 18.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game on 47.6 percent field goal shooting and 43.4 percent three-point shooting.

Harris would have liked to have signed an extension to ensure he remained in Orlando. The Magic could have gotten something done with Harris in $12-$13 million per season range, but the Magic opted to wait and make sure that Harris is indeed that kind of player, not only in the marketplace but to them as a team.

The Magic will likely issue Harris the $3.39 million qualifying offer sheet to restrict his free agency. They have indicated as much to him.

Harris’ salary cap hold is worth $5.95 million. The Magic look to have $38.8 million in firm salary guarantees, and should enter free agency with a cap sitting at about $50-$52 million.

Unlike the Bulls, the Magic do have the cap space to decide if they want to spend what could be $13-$14 million on Harris on a different player. That is clearly an option for the Magic to weigh.

Harris’ camp is motivated to find an offer sheet in free agency and as one source pointed out, they are motivated to find an unfavorable offer sheet, as that would be the only way a team would issue one, knowing that Orlando might not match.

There is a sense that Orlando may play Harris’ restricted free agency in much the same way Phoenix and Detroit played the restricted free agency of Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe – by being extremely vocal that they would match anything offered.

Bledsoe and Monroe both struggled to get workable offer sheets because the other teams knew their home teams would match. Bledsoe ultimately reached a deal with Phoenix, while Monroe accepted the qualifying offer and is heading into unrestricted free agency, likely costing him $10-$12 million this season.

Harris and the Magic are saying all the right things. They both want the relationship to continue, but given how well Harris is playing, it’s pretty clear he’s going to land an offer sheet, likely in the $13-$14 million range. The question becomes will Orlando match something like that, or are they better served letting Harris walk and using their cap space later on down the road?

If that option is a serious possibility, then trading Harris before the February deadline has to be considered as well.

Reggie Jackson, Oklahoma City Thunder, $3.222 Million Qualifying Offer

Jackson and the Thunder talked about a contract extension; however, they were unable to reach an agreement. Jackson’s camp wanted to see him compensated at the level of a starting point guard and based on the pacts that have gotten done, that’s a deal in the $10-$12 million per range. The Thunder opted to pass, not so much because they don’t believe Jackson is worth or worthy of being paid like a starter, but because they have their own cap constraints and believed the season was going to play out much differently than it has.

Jackson is posting career-best numbers across the board including 13 starts, 17.9 points, 6.8 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game.

The problem for Jackson is as good as he has been as a starter, he is showing some weaknesses, especially in the shooting department – logging 41.4 percent from the field and 24.3 percent from the three-point line.

Jackson has likely done well enough for himself to garner a serious offer in free agency; however, it’s unlikely that Jackson gets an offer on the high end of his positional range.

That could bode well for the Thunder, who do very much want to keep Jackson in the fold.

It’s highly likely that the Thunder issue Jackson the $3.22 million qualifying offer. Jackson carries a cap hold worth $5.51 million.

Much like the Bulls with Butler, the Thunder are very much a capped out team, so they will face the choice of matching an offer sheet in July or trying to replace Jackson with an existing roster player or with one of their salary cap exceptions.

There is an x-factor in this equation and that’s the uncertain future of Thunder star Kevin Durant. The Thunder already shipped off Durant’s good friend James Harden over a contract dispute. Jackson and Durant have become close; can the Thunder afford to ship off another friend the year before Durant can explore free agency?

The flip side to that, is do the Thunder want to be tied up with Jackson if Durant does the unthinkable and walks away?

This one likely comes down to what does Jackson get offered? If he gets the $8-$10 million kind of deal his play likely lands him, then that’s a deal the Thunder likely match.

If the offer becomes more significant, then there isn’t as much certainty on what Oklahoma City will do.

There is a sense that they want to keep him long-term, but given their cap position and where they are going forward tying themselves into Jackson on the wrong kind of deal might not make sense.

»In Related: Who Still Has Cap Salary Space? How About Cap Exceptions?

More Twitter:  Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible @TommyBeer, @JabariDavisNBA , @NateDuncanNBA , @MokeHamilton , @JCameratoNBA and @YannisNBA.

Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.




NBA Daily: Checking In With Terrance Ferguson

Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Terrance Ferguson talks to Basketball Insiders about learning from his teammates, earning minutes and being mentally tough.

Ben Nadeau



Before he reached the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Terrance Ferguson was once often referred to as a man of mystery. After changing course on two different programs in a two-month span, Ferguson ditched the typical one-and-done collegiate season for an adventure on the other side of the planet. But even after the Thunder selected Ferguson with the No. 21 overall pick in last year’s draft — the questions still lingered. How would a teenager with one season overseas adjust to the world’s most physical basketball league?

Not many rookies can contribute to a 40-plus win squad out in the cutthroat Western Conference so quickly — but down the stretch, here Ferguson is doing just that. With the Thunder locked in a tight playoff battle with six others teams, the 19-year-old’s hard-working personality has fit alongside the roster’s three perennial All-Stars — Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. And although his rookie season has come with some growing pains, Ferguson is earning meaningful minutes and making the most of them.

“I think it’s my work ethic, I come in every day with the same mentality,” Ferguson said. “I work my butt off — inside the game, being physical. Even though I’m a skinny guy, as everyone can see, I’m still everywhere on the floor being physical. I think [the coaching staff] really likes that, especially on the defensive end.”

Skinny or not, Ferguson is one of the league’s youngest players, so the 6-foot-7 guard has plenty of room to grow — literally. But for now, he’s playing an integral role on an Oklahoma City team looking to protect its high postseason seed. Late January brought the unfortunate season-ending injury to Andre Roberson — an All-Defensive Second Team honoree in 2016-17 — so the Thunder have needed both new and old players to step up in bigger roles.

While those candidates included the three-point shooting Alex Abrines, veteran Raymond Felton and the newly-acquired Corey Brewer, Ferguson’s recent rise in the rotation has arguably been the most interesting development. Since the calendar flipped to January, Ferguson has featured in almost all of the Thunder’s games, tallying just two DNP-CDs and one missed contest following a concussion. This steady diet of opportunity comes as a stark contrast to the 15 games in which he received no playing time, spanning from the season’s opening tip to the new year.

Of course, playing time is not always indicative of success, but Ferguson himself isn’t surprised that he’s carved out a crucial role ahead of the playoffs.

“Not really, it’s all up to coach’s decision,” Ferguson told Basketball Insiders. “I’m just here playing my part, staying ready at all times and some minutes came, so I’mma take them and play to the best of my ability.”

Back in October, Basketball Insiders’ own Joel Brigham spoke to Ferguson about his unconventional path to NBA and the choice to spend a year grinding with the Adelaide 36ers, an Australian outfit. In the land down under, Ferguson averaged just 15 minutes a night, considerably less than he would’ve likely received as a highly-recruited prospect here in America. Some five months later, Ferguson’s early-season stance on the move still stands out.

“I’m living the dream now, right? I must have done the right thing,” Ferguson said.

Today, it’s hard to disagree with Ferguson’s decisions considering that they’re currently paying off. In 2009, Brandon Jennings became the first to skip college and play in Europe before being drafted, with Emmanuel Mudiay most notably following in his footsteps six years later. While those two point guards both were selected in the top ten of their draft classes — at No. 10 and No. 7, respectively — it still remains the road far less traveled.

Considered raw by most pre-draft evaluations, an early expectation was that Ferguson would spend much of the season with the Oklahoma City Blue, the Thunder’s G-League affiliate. Instead, Ferguson has played in only three games with the Blue, where he has averaged a commendable 14.7 points, four rebounds and 1.3 steals per game.

But as of late, the Thunder have found somebody that’ll always work hard, learn from others and do the little things that don’t show up in the box score.

“I’ve learned a lot more from when I first started,” Ferguson told Basketball Insiders. “I got great teammates — I got Nick Collison, I got Russ, PG, Melo, so just picking their brains. I got Corey now, so just the work ethic they put in, just picking their brains each and every day about what I can do better, watching game film, it’s a lot of things.”

When he was drafted, Ferguson had a reputation as a skyscraping leaper with the athleticism to become an elite perimeter defender. Although his current averages with the Thunder understate his innate potential, Ferguson knows he can contribute without scoring — even noting that he can make up for it “on the other side of the court.” Playing defense and competing hard every night, he has slowly made a name for himself.

And while Ferguson has tallied far more single-digit scoring outings than his 24-point breakout performance in early January, he’s earned the trust of head coach Billy Donovan and his veteran teammates, which is something the rookie will never take for granted.

“Coach believes in me and that means a lot to me,” Ferguson said. “But my teammates believe in me, so I’m not gonna let them down. I’m gonna go out every day and play my hardest, compete and try to get the win each and every night.”

One might assume that his year abroad in Australia helped to mentally mold him into the high-flying, hard-nosed rookie we see today. Ferguson, however, contends that he’s had that edge from the very beginning.

“I’ve been mentally tough, it wasn’t overseas that did that,” Ferguson told Basketball Insiders. “I had to be mentally tough just to go over there — so I’ve always had that mentality, the [desire] to just dominate, play to the best of my ability and compete.”

And now he’s doing just that in the NBA.

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Is Kyrie Irving’s Second Opinion a Cause for Concern?

Shane Rhodes breaks down the tough situation the Celtics are in with Kyrie Irving.

Shane Rhodes



The Boston Celtics are in one awful predicament.

With a third of the roster out due to injury, Brad Stevens has been forced into the impossible task of maintaining Boston’s championship aspirations with some subpar talent; while they have performed admirably, the likes of Abdel Nader and Semi Ojeleye wouldn’t see the same run they are currently on with most contenders. Gordon Hayward has missed the entire season, save a few minutes on opening night. Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis are all currently out, some for the year and others not. Key contributors Al Horford, Marcus Morris and others have missed time as well.

It couldn’t get worse, could it?

Well, it may just have. Reports surfaced Tuesday that Irving, who had missed time this season — including the last four games — with left knee soreness, is seeking a second opinion after a lack of progress in his recovery.

In the wake of the Isaiah Thomas fiasco and his ailing hip last Summer, an injury that lingered deep into this season, the Celtics will likely be more than cautious with Irving, whom they gave up a haul (the rights to the 2018 Brooklyn Nets first round pick, most notably), to acquire. But one can only wonder if these persistent issues — Irving’s left knee was surgically repaired after he sustained a fractured kneecap in 2015, and he reportedly threatened the Cleveland Cavaliers with surgery this offseason before his trade to Boston — are a cause for concern for general manager Danny Ainge and the Celtics.

The situation presents the Celtics with a quandary, to say the least.

Knee injuries aren’t exactly a death-knell, but fans need not look far for to see the devastating effect they can have on NBA players (e.g. Derrick Rose). They can snowball and, over time, even the best players will break down. Regardless of the severity, Irving’s knee issue presents problems both now and in the future.

The problems now are obvious: the Celtics, already down Gordon Hayward, cannot afford to lose Irving if they are at all interested in making a Finals run this season. Boston struggles mightily on the offensive end when Irving and his 24.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists aren’t on the court. In a playoff atmosphere, especially, the team would sorely miss his scoring prowess.

Looking ahead, if Irving is dealing with these problems at the age of 25, what could the future hold for the All-Star guard? Knee issues, most lower body issues in general, are often of the chronic variety, and constant maintenance can wear on people, both mentally and physically.

Just a season separated from a likely super-max payday, will the Celtics want to commit big-money long-term to potentially damaged goods?

If there is a silver lining in it all, it is the fact that 20-year-old rookie Jayson Tatum must now shoulder the scoring load, something that should go a long way in building on the potential that made him the No. 3 overall pick last June. And, should Irving miss the remainder of this season, exposure to the fires of the playoffs should only temper the Celtics’ young roster. In the event that Irving’s absence isn’t prolonged, time like this could only serve to strengthen the roster around him.

Still, Ainge brought Irving to Boston for a reason: he was meant to lead the Celtics into battle, alongside Gordon Hayward and Al Horford, in their quest for a title. Obviously, he can’t do that from the bench. Without Irving at 100 percent, the Celtics are not a championship caliber squad, healthy Gordon Hayward or not. That fact alone will make Irving’s situation one to monitor going forward and for the foreseeable future.

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NBA Daily: Houston Has It All

Deciphering whether Houston is a contender or pretender is tough, but they’re making it easy.

Lang Greene



It is very easy to get caught up in the NBA regular-season hyperbole. The past is littered with a plethora of NBA teams that looked like world-beaters in the regular season only to pull up lame in the playoffs and emerge as a bunch of pretenders.

So when it comes to the Houston Rockets, it’s no surprise many pundits and fans of the game fall heavily on one side or the other. The 2017-18 Rockets are a polarizing squad in that respect. On one side of the fence, you have the folks that are struggling to get behind Houston until they see how the franchise performs in the playoffs under the brightest of lights and on the biggest of stages. On the other, folks that place a great deal of weight on the 82-game regular season and the ability to sustain consistency throughout the marathon.

As always, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

At the top of Houston’s lineup are two future Hall of Famers in James Harden and Chris Paul. The latter was a perennial star in his heyday and is still a top-tier talent in the league. Harden, on the other hand, is closing in on his first MVP award and had serious cases for winning the honors in prior seasons, as well. Both Harden and Paul are criticized for their past playoff failures.

Paul entered the league during the 2006 season and has been dogged by the ever looming fact that he’s never reached a Conference Finals. Harden has been to the NBA Finals but has been dogged for multiple playoff missteps and shaky performances that remain etched in everyone’s memory. But something about this season’s Rockets team (57-14) seems different as the duo closes in on 60 wins.

One way to measure the true greatness of a NBA team is evaluating how many ways the roster can win playing a variety of styles. From the eyeball test, Houston checks the boxes in this category. The team sustains leads during blowouts. They have an offense built to erase large deficits quickly. The team possesses the talent to employ an array of versatile lineups to withstand top heat from opposing teams. Head coach Mike D’Antoni has shown the ability to adjust on the fly during certain situations. Houston is seemingly comprised of a bunch of guys that are selfless and ready to sacrifice at this stage of their respective careers.

Time will tell on all of those aforementioned aspects, but the Rockets are built to compete and win now. On paper at least, the team fits the criteria.

Floor Generalship

Paul has a chance to go down as a top five point guard in NBA history .His court vision is unquestioned and his big men always seem to end up being in the top five of field goal percentage each season (i.e. Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan and now Clint Capela). In years past, the Rockets faltered down the stretch of games because the entire system ran through Harden. But this year’s club has the luxury of taking some of the on-ball expectation away from Harden and by giving the rock to Paul who naturally thrives in this role the squad doesn’t take a step back on the floor.

This is going to be big for Houston which has seen Harden gassed late in playoff games from carrying the entire load.

Small Ball Ready

Presumably standing between the Rockets and an appearance in the NBA Finals are the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors turned the NBA upside down with their free-flowing offense, long range accuracy and the successful ability to push the pace while playing small ball.

At the height of Golden State’s success they employed the “death lineup” which places All-Star forward Draymond Green at center. In different variations this gives the Warriors five guys on the court who can dribble, drive, pass and shoot. Versatility is important and if you look at this year’s Rockets team they have the ability to match the death lineup with their own version. Veteran forward P.J. Tucker would be able to guard Green in this scenario at center or Houston could just rely on the athleticism of Capela.


When it comes to defense, the Rockets will never be confused for the bad boy Detroit Pistons of yesteryear, however, the team has an assortment of individually capable defenders on the roster. Paul has all defensive team honors hanging on his mantle during his time in the league. Small forward Trevor Ariza made his bones in the league by placing an emphasis on defense. Before Capela emerged as a double-digit scorer, he was relied on as a defensive spark off the bench. Luc Mbah a Moute has a reputation and consistent track record of being a very willing defender.

Shooting, Versatility and Experience

All of this success, leads to the variation D’Antoni can put out onto the floor. The versatility to go with a small ball lineup or a lineup heavily skewed toward defenders is a luxury amenity. Houston also features five guys with 125 or more three-pointers made this season with Harden, Eric Gordon, Ariza, Paul and Ryan Anderson leading the way. A sixth, Tucker, should join the +100 club before season’s end. Veteran Gerald Green has only played 30 games with the franchise but has already knocked down 76 attempts from distance.

Experience is key as well. This year’s Rockets team features only one player under 25, receiving 25 or more minutes per night in the rotation. Look at NBA history, title winning teams are full of veterans not second or third year players.


Again, the Rockets will never be confused with the late 80s or early 90s Pistons but the team has more than a few guys that don’t shy away from contact or physical play. The collection of Nene, Tucker, Green and Ariza have had more than their share of shoving matches when things get heated on the floor.

With the start of the NBA playoffs (April 14) under a month away, the Rockets continue to build momentum toward a title run. Will Harden and Paul’s playoff demons from the past emerge or is their first true shot at greatness with a complete team? These questions will soon be answered.

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