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NBA Daily: An Update on 2019 Free Agency

NBA free agency begins in just over two weeks. And despite the fact that players can’t agree to contracts until June 30, aggressive changes to the free agent pool can already be seen. Drew Maresca examines the most recent news pertaining to the top free agents of 2019.

Drew Maresca

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Not long ago, Kevin Durant was assumed to be the prize of the biggest free agency extravaganza since 2010. But with less than three weeks until free agency officially opens, Durant’s status as a free agent has been cast into doubt – to say the least – as a result of the Achilles rupture he suffered in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

For those of you who have been off the grid or too busy to stay up-to-date with the 2019 NBA Playoffs, the Warriors reported that Durant suffered a calf strain in Game Five of the Western Conference Semifinals on May 8 after suffering a non-contact injury that had lots of symptoms of an Achilles injury. But Durant’s injury was officially diagnosed as a calf strain, and under the watchful eyes of the Warriors coaches and training staff, he rehabbed himself quickly enough to return for Game Five of the NBA Finals – whether or not he truly wanted to or felt pressured to by the media and his teammates and coaches is another story altogether.

Unfortunately for Durant and at least a half-dozen teams hoping to sign him to a long-term deal this summer including the Knicks, Clippers, and Nets, Durant’s return resulted in a ruptured Achilles – for which he underwent surgery on Wednesday afternoon in New York.

Achilles ruptures are viewed by NBA personnel as a very serious injury that requires approximately 12 months of recovery and rehab. For example, DeMarcus Cousins ruptured his Achilles in January 2018 and returned 357 days later.

The track record for players returning from an Achilles rupture is a mixed bag. Dominique Wilkins returned to form following a ruptured Achilles when he was 32 years old in 1992 with 1990s-era medicine and procedures. Wesley Matthews also returned to form following an Achilles rupture in 2015 at the age of 28. But there are far more cautionary tales than there are ones that inspire hope, including Brandon Jennings and Elton Brand.

Despite the injury, teams that are operating on longer timelines will still go after Durant. The Knicks are rumored to maintain interest in signing Durant to, according to Ian Begley of SNY.

But what about the rest of the league? There are still lots of Allstar free agents-to-be and teams with the requisite salary cap room to convince them to change zip codes. Who will be the most sought-after free agent? And what do teams do now, especially those who had eyes on pairing Durant and another star?

Kawhi Leonard has quickly become the most talked about free-agent-to-be – even more so than Durant prior to his rupturing his Achilles (but after his initial injury sidelined him for a month).

Leonard proved pundits wrong this season, scoring a career-high 26.6 points per game on 54% shooting in 60 games, which could have easily been more than 60 if not for “load management”. He then upped the ante by leading the Raptors to their first NBA Finals appearance, scoring 30.9 points per game through the Playoffs, including a miraculous, series-clinching, buzzer-beater to close out the 76ers in Game Seven of the Conference Semifinals.

Leonard clearly makes an average team good, and a good team great – even without the presence of another all-world talent. And he’ll turn 28 years old just prior to free agency, which makes him two years younger than Durant. Leonard was always about as good as it gets, but with Durant’s injury he’s become the biggest prize in free agency.

And then there’s Kyrie Irving, whom the Knicks, Nets and Clippers all reportedly wanted to pair with Durant, Davis or Leonard as is evidenced by the cap clearing moves each of the three teams made in the lead up to free agency: the Knicks traded Kristaps Porzingis, Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway Jr. to Dallas, the Clippers traded Tobias Harris to the 76ers and Avery Bradley to the Grizzlies, and the Nets recently sent Allen Crabbe and two first-round picks to Atlanta.

But Irving’s impending free agency was made all the more interesting just yesterday when he alerted the Celtics that he would not opt-in to the final year of his contract (not a surprise) and fired longtime agent, Jeff Wechsler, indicating that he will sign with Jay-Z’s Roc Nation Sports (big surprise) –  which has led to rampant speculation due to Jay-Z’s past relationship with the Nets as a minority owner, as well as the fact that Roc Nation’s President and Chief of Branding and Strategy (Michael Yormark) is the twin brother of Nets’ Team President (Brett Yormark).

Interestingly, Roc Nation also represents Durant and Nets’ star Caris LeVert.

But that’s not all when it comes to 2019 free agents news: Anthony Davis’s agent, Rich Paul, said on Monday that Davis’ preferred trade destinations have been narrowed to two teams: the Lakers and Knicks.

Paul warned that Davis will enter free agency in 2020 if he’s dealt to Boston – a strong message sent by Paul and Davis.

And what’s more, the New Orleans Pelicans’ Vice President David Griffin stated on Monday that the Pelicans are looking for a Davis trade to return the team an All-Star, a young player with serious upside, and a pair of first-round picks – significantly more than the Spurs received for Leonard last summer and/or the Indiana Pacers received for Paul George the summer before that.

Given Davis’ willingness to go on the record with his preferred destinations – something most free agents in years’ past have been reticent to do – this might not be the year for other teams not listed by Davis to try to woo him because it could end up being the season that gamble doesn’t pay off – unless Leonard leaves Toronto and beats Davis to the punch.

Meanwhile, while Jimmy Butler’s name has been surprisingly absent from free agent rumors, his teammate – Tobias Harris – has failed to maintain an equally low profile. Harris has been linked to the Brooklyn Nets for some time due to his Long Island-upbringing. And those rumors have heated up in recent weeks. The Athletic recently reported that Harris and the Nets have mutual interest in one another, and that Nets’ coach Kenny Atkinson’s brother, Steve Atkinson, was Harris’ high school coach. And if the Nets ultimately draft Harris’ younger brother, Terry Harris, in the 2019 NBA Draft, you can assume they’re planning on adding a second Harris to their roster. Terry Harris worked out for the Nets on Wednesday and the Knicks on Thursday.

And then there are stars like Kemba Walker, Nikola Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins, all of whom have either kept their plans close to the vest and/or voiced their desire to remain with their current organizations.

Having said that, Vucevic is reportedly a player that the Dallas Mavericks would like to add. And Mark Cuban has never been one to sit idly by. So it’s plausible that Cuban’s Mavericks could target Vucevic early in free agency so if a deal does not come to fruition, he can turn his attention elsewhere and still have options.

Free agents can officially begin negotiating with teams on June 30 at 6 pm EST. This year’s free agency period just might alter the destinies of a number of franchises. And it could easily go down as the most prolific free agency period ever. But with the pace at which changes to the free agent pool have been made as far as their health, agents, etc. is concerned, who knows what we’ll learn prior to June 30.

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NBA Daily: Is Stephen Curry the MVP?

Given the prolific season Stephen Curry is having, despite the Golden State Warriors being ninth in the Western Conference, does his impact make him the Most Valuable Player in the NBA this season?

Bobby Krivitsky

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In the aftermath of Klay Thompson suffering an Achilles tear that ended his season before it began, no one would have blamed Stephen Curry for prioritizing his preservation through the 2020-21 campaign.

Instead, despite the Golden State Warriors lacking the necessary talent to become a title contender, Curry’s doing everything in his power to get them into the playoffs.

The two-time league MVP is on pace to win the scoring title for the second time in his career. In a recent road loss against the Boston Celtics, Curry put up 47 points, becoming the second player in Warriors history to score 30 or more points in 10-straight games, joining Wilt Chamberlain. 

In his last 11 contests, Curry’s averaging 40 points on shooting splits that aren’t supposed to be possible at the game’s highest level. Even though he’s hoisting 14.3 attempts from beyond the arc per game, he’s making them at a 49.7 percent clip. He’s taking 23.4 shots from the field but still seeing the ball go through the hoop 54.1 percent of the time.

The context of how Curry’s producing those prodigious numbers makes them even more impressive. He is the only scoring threat on Golden State who defenses need to concern themselves with — stop Curry, win the game; it’s that simple, at least in theory it is.

 

Another layer of what makes Curry’s prolific scoring so impressive is the energy he’s exerting to do so. According to NBA.com’s tracking data, Curry’s running 1.43 miles per game on offense, which is the sixth-most league-wide. And what that figure doesn’t fully capture is that while Curry has a lightning-quick release and is masterful at creating the sliver of daylight he needs to get his shot off, it takes a significant amount of energy to do that once, let alone throughout a game.

Even though Curry’s already the greatest shooter of all time, he’s taken the most lethal part of his game to new heights. From 2015 when the Warriors won their first NBA championship to 2019, a stretch in which they reached the finals every year, step-back threes accounted for just eight percent of Curry’s shooting profile from beyond the arc. But this season, Curry knew it would be more challenging to create shots for himself, which is why he’s doubled that figure to 16 percent and he’s knocking down 51.5 percent of his step-back threes, per NBA.com.

Curry’s also putting more pressure on opponents from further away from the hoop than he has in years past. According to NBA.com, from 2015 through 2019, five percent of his threes came from 30 to 40 feet. This season, shots from that distance account for 10 percent of his three-point attempts. Just like when defenses double team him out of a pick-and-roll, Curry forcing teams to defend him from further out is another way for him to create 4-3 opportunities for his teammates.

 

After that loss against the Celtics, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said Curry’s “at the peak of his powers.” Though he’s not just putting his talents towards individual production, he is the primary reason Golden State’s firmly in the play-in tournament. The Warriors currently reside ninth in the Western Conference. They’re one game behind the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies and two back of the seventh-ranked Dallas Mavericks. 

As impressive an individual season as Curry’s having and as vital as he’s been to his team’s success this season, the reality is the Warriors haven’t won at a high enough level for him to win Most Valuable Player honors for the third time in his career. Currently, Nikola Jokic is the leading MVP candidate. While it’s fair to point out the Denver Nuggets aren’t even in the top three in the Western Conference, Jokic ranks first in player efficiency rating, win shares, box plus/minus and value over replacement player. He’s averaging 26.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game. 

If Jokic misses enough of Denver’s remaining games, someone could usurp him for the right to win MVP. In that scenario, Curry would have a chance to become the NBA’s Most Valuable Player for a third time, but he’d have to sway voters from giving it to Joel Embiid. Embiid’s in the midst of a career season, ranking second in player efficiency rating, eighth in win shares and fourth in box plus/minus. He’s averaging 29.9 points, 11.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game while leading the Philadelphia 76ers to the best record in the Eastern Conference.

Curry ranks sixth in player efficiency rating, seventh in win shares and is second in both box plus/minus and value over replacement player. He has a case for MVP, but Jokic and Embiid are capping off career seasons while leading their respective teams to a higher level of success. Yes, their teams are more talented and there probably isn’t enough weight put on how valuable an individual is to his team, but the reality is the MVP typically goes to the best player on a top team. Furthermore, that argument also applies to Jokic, who’s the lone All-Star on a team with a better record.

Not naming Curry this season’s Most Valuable Player doesn’t mean his prolific production isn’t appreciated. Nor should it get taken as a sign elevating his team, somehow finding ways to become a more dangerous shooter and investing as much energy as he has into a season that won’t end with a championship isn’t garnering respect from the NBA community. That includes fans whose favorite team doesn’t reside in the Bay Area.

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NBA Daily: The Lakers’ Path Back to the NBA Finals

In the wake of Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Bobby Krivitsky examines the Los Angeles Lakers’ path back to the NBA Finals.

Bobby Krivitsky

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It’s been 15 games since a high ankle sprain sidelined LeBron James. 

With the Western Conference standings congested and Anthony Davis already out due to a right calf strain and a re-aggravation of his right Achilles tendinosis, the Los Angeles Lakers faced the threat of a fall that would require their participation in the play-in tournament.

However, the Lakers have fought admirably in the absence of their two stars, going seven and eight. As a result, their fall in the standings has been painless, going from third at the time of James’ injury to now occupying fifth place in the West.

The primary reason the Lakers have been able to tread water without their two stars is they’ve remained stingy on defense. Since James’ injury, they have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. That’s despite facing four teams who rank in the top five in offensive rating and six of the categories’ top-10 members.

Right now, the Lakers are 2.5 games ahead of the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers, with a 4.5-game cushion between them and the Dallas Mavericks, who are seventh in the conference. That should be a large enough gap to keep Los Angeles out of the play-in tournament, but the two teams are going to converge for a two-game series starting Thursday. For the Lakers, getting swept would re-open the possibility of having to compete in the play-in tournament.

Fortunately for them, even splitting that series would make it unlikely the Mavericks finish ahead of the Lakers in the standings. And help might be on the way for the Lakers: Davis may soon rejoin the lineup, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, meaning there’s a distinct possibility he’s active for at least one of those two matchups. As for James, he’s on track to return in three weeks.

While Los Angeles’ stars are getting closer to making their returns, the Denver Nuggets got dealt a more severe blow when Jamal Murray tore his ACL in a recent game against the Golden State Warriors. Denver is 10-2 since acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline and looked the part of a legitimate title contender prior to Murray’s injury. 

Denver is fourth in the West, 1.5 games ahead of Los Angeles. But even if the Nuggets have home-court advantage, they’re the preferable opening-round opponent, not just for Los Angeles, but any team with a legitimate chance at the fourth or fifth seed.

Fortunately for the Lakers, that’s the place in the Western Conference pecking order where they’re most likely to finish this season. So long as the Nuggets don’t freefall in Murray’s absence, Los Angeles will likely start the playoffs against an opponent that’s gone from having the potential to present the greatest challenge to the defending champions’ quest to get back to the Finals to becoming a desirable first-round matchup.

After that, the Lakers may have to get past the Utah Jazz and or the Los Angeles Clippers to make a return trip to the NBA Finals. The former has the best record in the league this season, but locking horns with the defending champions in a best of seven series is a far more challenging and potentially rewarding proving ground.

The Jazz have a deep, reliable rotation, they have the best net rating in the NBA, they’re in the top five in points for and against per 100 possessions, and they’re attempting the most threes per game, but also rank in the top five in three-point shooting percentage. However, the Lakers would have the two best players in a series against Utah. Usually, an opponent doesn’t overcome that disadvantage.  

As for the Clippers, Rajon Rondo has quickly proven to be an impactful acquisition. Los Angeles is seven and one with him in the lineup, generating the highest net rating in the league during that span. Last season, the Lakers saw first-hand how impactful playoff Rondo can be. Now, the Clippers are hoping he can bring structure to their offense, something they sorely lacked last postseason and was at the forefront of them blowing a 3-1 series lead over the Nuggets. Doing so would go a long way towards maximizing the production of a team that has the talent to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

If this is the year the battle of LA takes place in the postseason, it figures to be a slugfest. Still, the Clippers have their doubters after last year’s meltdown in the playoffs. There’s also a large contingency who are skeptical about how far the Jazz can go in the postseason, given their lack of a top-tier superstar. Despite the validity of those concerns, both teams can beat the Lakers in a best of seven series. That no longer appears to be the case for the Nuggets, which is a shame for them and people who want to see the best possible matchups in the playoffs. But Murray’s injury, as unfortunate an occurrence as it is, makes it easier for the Lakers to get through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference and have a chance to claim an 18th championship, which would break their tie with the Boston Celtics for the most titles in NBA history.

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NBA AM: The Play-In Game – West

With the season winding down, Ariel Pacheco takes a look at how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Western Conference.

Ariel Pacheco

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With the regular season’s end in sight, teams are making their last push to make the playoffs in what has been a condensed season. But the new play-in tournament is providing more teams than ever a chance at a coveted playoff spot.

Here is what the new play-in tournament will look like: Teams that finish with the Nos 7 and 8 seeds will face off against each other. The winner of this game will be No. 7. The Nos. 9 and 10 seeds will also play and the winner will play the loser of the first game. The winner of this game will be the No. 8 seed. 

The play-in tournament provides intrigue and adds pressure on teams in both conferences to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in altogether. The Western Conference, in particular, is shaping up to have a rather exciting finish. There are a number of teams who could find themselves fighting for their playoff lives in this year’s tournament – all below in tiers.

Teams Likely To Avoid Play-In

Portland Trail Blazers (32-24)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 11

The Trail Blazers are currently the sixth seed in the West meaning, for now, they are safe from the play-in tournament. However, they are just two games above the Mavericks from possibly dropping down a place. They’re the team most likely to secure that sixth seed because they have more talent than the teams below them – hello, Dame – and they also have an elite offense. However, the defensive concerns are very real and if they were to slip, it would likely be because of their struggles on that side of the ball.

Likely Play-In Teams

Dallas Mavericks

Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 5
Games Against West: 8

On paper, the Mavs have a really easy schedule as the season winds down. They have just five games against teams over .500 and two against the Los Angeles Lakers, who may be without their two stars for those games. However, they are just 10-12 this season against sub .500 teams and are coming off a disappointing loss to the Sacramento Kings. There’s still a pretty good chance they get the sixth seed and avoid the play-in, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them in it as well.

Memphis Grizzlies
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 7
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 12

The Grizzlies are often overlooked, but they are about as well-coached as any other team in the NBA. It is likely they will be in the play-in game, but don’t be surprised if they are able to sneak into the sixth seed. They lost last year’s play-in game in the Bubble to the Blazers, so they do have experience in this type of setting. They may be getting Jaren Jackson Jr. back soon which should help. 

Golden State Warriors
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 6
Games Against West: 13

The Warriors are getting just other-worldly performances from Stephen Curry on an almost nightly basis at this point. However, they continue to struggle to win games, in large part due to the struggles when he sits on the bench. Their schedule is pretty light to close the season, which bolsters their chances. The talent on this team isn’t great, but Curry’s play should be enough to get them in the play-in tournament. 

San Antonio Spurs
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 7

The Spurs have struggled of late, especially after the All-Star break. Their defense has dropped off badly, but if there’s any reason to be positive, it’s that they are still coached by Gregg Popovich and their young guys continue to show improvement. They have been really good on the road this season and a majority of their games are on the road. It won’t be easy, but the Spurs should find themselves in the play-in tournament.

Outside Looking In

New Orleans Pelicans
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 9
Games Against West: 11

The Pelicans have been hit with the injury bug of late, but their inconsistent play this season continues to be a huge problem. Their defense continues to bleed three-pointers and while point Zion Williamson has worked, there just isn’t enough shooting to maximize him just yet. It seems unlikely the Pelicans make a late-season run to the play-in game.

Sacramento Kings

Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 14

The Kings are the least likely team to make the play-in tournament. Their defense is still problematic and they just recently ended their 9-game losing streak. It’ll take a huge late-season push and the Kings just haven’t shown that they are capable of putting it all together for a long enough stretch. 

The play-in tournament adds a new layer of competition that will bring excitement at the end of the season. Be sure to check out how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Eastern Conference.

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