As we creep closer and closer to the end of the regular season, more teams will continue to be eliminated from the playoffs. Those teams then become part of Basketball Insider’s annual “Fixing” series. In continuing with the narrative, we will now take a look at the ever-interesting Dallas Mavericks and what they need to do to get back into the playoffs.
From a front office perspective, the Mavericks’ year has been spectacular. They’ve gotten off of contracts that most would consider negative. They struck gold in the 2018 NBA draft. And they traded for the Unicorn himself – Kristaps Porzingis – posturing themselves for a strong 2019-20 campaign. There is still plenty that the franchise needs to improve upon if they want to have a prayer at the postseason next year, so without further ado let’s dive into Mark Cuban’s pièce de résistance and see what needs to occur.
What Is Working
If it isn’t obvious who should be mentioned here first, then you just haven’t watched any basketball this season. The NBA has been taken by storm this season by a rookie so dominant, we haven’t seen the likes of his gameday numbers since one LeBron James. The rookie phenom being mentioned here – in case you have lived under a rock or something – is Luka Doncic.
The only rookie to match his per game statistics of 21.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists was Oscar Robertson clear back in 1960. In the three-point era, those numbers have never been posted by a rookie. Even LeBron’s rookie season couldn’t match those numbers. Keep in mind that Luka is doing this while being the leader of the team. He’s the central focus of every opposing team’s defensive scheme.
Most people who saw what Luka did in Europe dominating as a teen shouldn’t be too surprised with these results, yet here we are almost a full season after he was drafted and the numbers still seem absolutely mind-boggling. Luka has incredible court vision, elite size and length, and impressive athleticism for his age. He has quite possibly the second best step-back three-pointer in the league behind James Harden. This has allowed him to create his own shot on multiple occasions in the clutch when defenses seem to be playing him incredibly tight.
Speaking of clutch, his numbers in such situations are practically otherworldly for a rookie. With under one minute in the fourth quarter or overtime, when shooting to either tie the game or take the lead, Doncic is tied for first (!) for effective field goal percentage at 68.2 percent. Only 22 players qualify for the list – minimum of 10 field goals attempted – and he leads all but one of them. He’s tied with the current – and potential for this season – MVP James Harden.
Moving away from the dubbed “Wonder Boy,” we see a product that certainly has potential. Having Luka as your main building block is certainly a treat, but bringing in Porzingis via trade was absolutely a cherry on top. They had to part ways with Dennis Smith, Jr. – their lottery pick from last season – as well as two future first-round draft picks. Smith, Jr. has potential, he’s extremely athletic and seems competent as a point guard, but his fit never really worked for Dallas.
Porzingis and Doncic seem to be the duo that Dallas is banking their future on. While it is unclear how they’ll fit on the court, due to the fact that Porzingis will have missed the entire season recovering from a knee injury, it is hard to believe that it will be anything other than perfect. Still, there’s no telling until they step on the court together for the first time next season.
What Needs To Change
While there appears to be plenty to like with the young, European duo, there is a lot left to ponder outside of that relationship. Who else can the Mavericks rely on for scoring? Who will be the main rim protector? Will Dirk Nowitzki return and, if so, how will his minutes be allocated?
Dallas will have the likes of Tim Hardaway, Jr., Courtney Lee, Justin Jackson, Jalen Brunson and Dwight Powell – if he’s smart enough to opt into his final year – returning for the 2019-20 season. That’s not necessarily a group of guys that gets you excited. A quick scan of their upcoming free agents shows that perhaps J.J. Barea is the only player they’d actually want to take back – and even then he may not be ready to go until the middle of the season due in part to his Achilles injury.
To simply conclude what was just discussed above, the Mavericks may very well need a roster overhaul. So far this season, Dallas has the 20th best offense and the 19th best defense. They are 26th in three-point shooting and 25th in free throw percentage. We bring this up because – outside of personal development for a few of their younger players – not much will change next season with their current roster. What’s worse, is that we haven’t even seen KP and Luka play together yet. It’s assumed that they’ll coexist just fine, but there will certainly be hiccups along the way.
No one is expecting the Mavericks to take off next season, but Luka was very used to winning in Europe. Not just winning games, but winning awards and championships. How long will he be willing to lose in order to build a winning team? Culture is a huge part of basketball, and Dallas can’t afford to lose this way two seasons in a row. Heck, their now-second-best-player Porzingis has only ever known losing. He’d likely appreciate a winning season more than his teammate.
Focus Area: The Draft
The Mavericks currently hold the sixth worst record in the NBA. This is highly unfortunate for them, as their first-round draft pick this year – the pick they traded to Atlanta in order to get Luka Doncic – is top-five protected. The team with the fifth-worst record? The Hawks.
In order for Dallas to convey their pick this upcoming draft, they’d need to finish in the bottom five. With a handful of games still remaining, that is certainly a possibility. But it is far from a guarantee.
Dallas has lost eight of their last 10 games, so they are doing what they can to hypothetically tank their season. But the five teams below them are trying equally as hard – if not harder – to lose games, too. If Dallas cannot secure a first-round pick, they better hope they can secure a high-caliber player in the second round.
It is hard to say just what position Dallas needs. After trading DeAndre Jordan, they could definitely use some rim protection. While Doncic appears to be the team’s point guard moving forward, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to pair him with another PG/SG hybrid to ease his ball-handling burden.
Whatever happens for Dallas in the draft, it is crucial that they surround Porzingis and Doncic with whatever players will allow them to be successful. They can’t rely on Porzingis to be big on defense as they’d likely prefer his talents be used on the offensive end of the court. The same goes for Doncic. Adding size during the draft could definitely be used as a plus. Whether that is size under the rim or length on the wing, either would be a significant positive.
If Dallas lucks out and conveys their pick in the top-5, this draft is loaded with top-heavy talent. The front office should then be salivating at the opportunity to draft an RJ Barrett, De’Andre Hunter or Cam Reddish (assuming they can’t get Zion Williamson). These players would give them a solid mix of size and slightly developed offensive abilities.
Focus Area: Free Agency
This would be the Mavericks’ preferred method to acquire players. Not only does it allow them to “win now,” but it also allows them to take less focus on individual player development and put more focus on team basketball. Luka is clearly mature beyond his years and Kristaps has enough years in the league to no longer be considered a project. By adding solid veterans to their core, the front office won’t need to waste any resources on developing young, raw talent.
By sending off various contracts that were eating up too much cap space, primarily Harrison Barnes, Dallas has allowed themselves to go after a max to near-max level player. Whether or not budding free agents view Dallas as a premier location is unknown, but it is hard to imagine a world where someone wouldn’t want to be teammates with two young, incredibly gifted talents like Luka and KP.
There will definitely be a crop of available, max players at the end of the season, so Dallas should be incredibly aggressive in trying to sign one of them. They cleared up space to specifically do so.
If they are unable to land a marquee free agent, they should not be discouraged, however. Barnes was very much not a major part of their future plans, and most would consider his contract a tad-bit large for his overall skill set, so losing him to free up space wouldn’t be detrimental if they aren’t able to fill it with a max-level talent.
Still, if they can’t find max-guy, they should definitely hit the market to find multiple role players to help amplify the wide-range of skills that both Luka and KP employ.
Dallas has a history of winning seasons as well as a championship banner in their rafters. They are a team that has employed various Hall of Famers such as Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, and eventually, Nowitzki. They have one of the most active and prolific owners in the NBA in Mark Cuban. Building a winning roster is the most important things on the FO’s list.
Rick Carlisle has been with the organization for quite some time and they don’t appear ready to let him go anytime soon. If they can continue to build their roster around the budding Euro duo, there is no denying that they will have many successful years to come.
Reviewing the Nurkic Trade: Denver’s Perspective
The Denver Nuggets have been on a miraculous run this postseason, but that doesn’t mean that they’re infallible. Drew Maresca reviews the 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland.
The Denver Nuggets are fresh off of a 114-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, pulling within three wins of the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals. But what if I told you that the Nuggets’ roster could be even more talented by acting more deliberately in a trade from three years ago?
While Denver won on Tuesday night, they lost a nail bitter on Sunday – for which most of the blame has been pointed at a defensive breakdown by Nuggets’ center Mason Plumlee, who was procured in the aforementioned 2017 trade. What did it cost Denver, you ask? Just Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.
Nurkic was a 2014-15 All-Rookie second team member. He played 139 games over 2.5 seasons in Denver, averaging 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game. He showed serious promise, but Denver had numerous reasons to pursue a trade: he’d suffered a few relatively serious injuries early in his career (and he’s continued to be injury-prone in Portland), butted heads with head coach Michael Malone and – most importantly – the Nuggets stumbled on to Nikola Jokic.
The Nuggets eventually attempted a twin-tower strategy with both in the starting line-up, but that experiment was short-lived — with Jokic ultimately asking to move to the team’s second unit.
The Nuggets traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2017 (along with a first-round pick) in exchange for Plumlee, a second-round pick and cash considerations. Ironically, the first-round pick included in the deal became Justin Jackson, who was used to procure another center, Zach Collins – but more on that in a bit.
As of February 2017, Plumlee was considered the better player of the two. He was averaging a career-high 11 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists through 54 games – but it was clear that at 27, he’d already maximized his talent.
Conversely, Nurkic was only 23 at the time of the trade with significant, untapped upside. In his first few seasons with Portland, Nurkic averaged 15 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while establishing himself as a rising star. As noted above, injuries have continued to be a problem. Nurkic suffered a compound fracture in his tibia and fibula in March 2019, forcing him to miss a majority of this current campaign. The COVID-19-related play stoppage in March gave Nurkic extra time to get his body right, and he returned to action in July inside the bubble.
And he did so with a vengeance. Nurkic demonstrated superior strength and footwork, and he flashed the dominance that Portland hoped he would develop, posting eight double-doubles in 18 contests. He averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and while his play dipped a bit in the playoffs – partially due to a matchup with first-team All-NBA star Anthony Davis – he still managed 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds in the five-game series. So it’s fair to say that Nurkic is still on his way toward stardom.
But the Nuggets are in the conference finals – so all’s well that ends well, right? Not so fast. To his credit, Plumlee is exactly who Denver expected him to be. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in three seasons with Denver since 2017 – but to be fair, Plumlee is asked to do less in Denver than he had in Portland. Still, it’s fairly obvious that they’re just not that comparable.
Plumlee is a good passer and an above-average defender that’ll compete hard and isn’t afraid to get dirty – but he has limitations. He doesn’t stretch the floor and he is a sub-par free throw shooter (53.5 percent in 2019-20). More importantly, he’s simply not a major offensive threat and his repertoire of moves is limited.
High-level takeaway: Defenses tend to game plan for opponents they view as major threats – Nurkic falls into this category. Other guys pack the stat sheet through putback attempts, open looks and single coverage alongside the guys for whom opposing defenses game plan – that’s a more appropriate description of Plumlee.
On to the wrench thrown in by Zach Collins’ involvement. Statistically, Collins is about as effective as Plumlee – he averaged 7 points and 6.3 rebounds through only 11 games in 2019-20 due to various injuries – and he possesses more upside. The 22-year-old is not as reliable as Plumlee but given his age and skill set, he’s a far better option as a support player playing off the bench. He stretches the floor (36.8 percent on three-point attempts in 2019-20), is an above-average free throw shooter (75 percent this season) and is a good defender. Looking past Nurkic for a moment, would the Nuggets prefer a 22-year-old center that stretches the floor and defends or a 30-year-old energy guy?
Regardless of your answer to that question, it’s hard to argue that Nurkic should have returned more than Plumlee, definitely so when you factor in the first-round pick Denver included. There is obviously more at play: Denver was probably considering trading Nurkic for some time before they acted – did they feel that they could increase his trade value prior to the trade deadline in 2016-17? Maybe. Further, Nurkic and his agent could have influenced the Nuggets’ decision at the 2017 deadline, threatening to stonewall Denver in negotiations.
Had Nurkic been more patient or the Nuggets acted sooner before it became abundantly clear that he was on the move, Denver’s roster could be even more stacked than it is now. Ultimately, the Nuggets have a plethora of talent and will be fine – while it appears that Nurkic found a long-term home in Portland, where he owns the paint offensively. Denver can’t be thrilled about assisting a division rival, but they’re still in an enviable position today and should be for years to come.
But despite that, this deal should go down as a cautionary tale – it’s not only the bottom feeders of the league who make missteps. Even the savviest of front offices overthink deals. Sometimes that works in their favor, and other times it does not.
NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong
Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.
It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.
Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.
Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.
1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.
A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.
Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part. Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.
Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.
Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.
Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.
Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.
Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.
The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.
The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.
To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.
For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.
To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.
Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.
On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.
Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?
Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.
Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.
In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.
For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.
Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.
We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.
With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.
The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old
Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.
He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.
Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.
Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old
Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.
He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.
Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.
Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old
Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.
He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.
One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old