The postseason always shows us something new about players and their respective skillsets — some of which is accurate, and some of which is less reliable. And it’s fair to wonder whether a player can substantially change their perceived value in 28 games or less.
Despite how increasingly sophisticated NBA front offices have become over the past decade – and they have become smarter, just look back at signings like Jerome James to the New York Knicks in 2005 based after an 11-game playoff run for proof – playoff performances probably still influence free agent signings more than they should.
With that being said, let’s identify a few players primed for a raise and/or extension based on their respective play in the 2019 postseason up to this point. Disclaimer: We will not cover the best free agents in 2019, nor will we cite stars like D’Angelo Russell who will obviously get raises based on the fact that their contracts are expiring. Instead, this piece highlights players who may have altered their own narrative positively or extended their careers with strong performances.
Additionally, this piece will avoid discussing players like Bojan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez and Al-Farouq Aminu, who are each lined up for more significant contract offers this time around. Yes, they are all in line for BIG raises; but NBA front offices were already familiar with their abilities entering the 2019 NBA Playoffs and their performance, be they good or bad, arguably didn’t do much to influence the overall perception of them around the league.
Status: Unrestricted; 2018-19 Salary: $3.472; Projected contract: 3 years, $33 million
Did playing alongside the ball dominant LeBron James mitigate Hood’s impact? It sure seems like it, especially recently. Has Hood redeemed himself from a below-average 2017-18 season and a poor 2018 postseason? It also seems like it.
Hood averaged 16.8 points per game in the 39 games he played in Utah in 2017-18. He scored only 10.8 per game in the next 25 games in Cleveland. He bottomed out in the 2018 playoffs, averaging only 5.4 points on 16.7% from three with multiple DNP-CD. His struggles continued in 2018-19 for 45 games in Cleveland and 27 in Portland.
And the first-round of the playoffs this year went mostly the same way. But Hood had a breakthrough for the Trailblazers in Game 1 of the second-round against the Denver Nuggets, scoring 17 on three-for-four shooting from three. He followed that up with 15 points on two-for-six from three, and then a spectacular four overtime Game 3 win in which he scored 19 points and hit the game-winning three.
Hood has re-established himself around the league to the extent that someone may make him an offer that exceeds three years and $30 million.
Status: Unrestricted; 2018-19 Salary: $1.15 million; Projected contract: 3 years, $21 million
Back in 2011, it was assumed that Rivers was a future All-Star – and rightfully so. Rivers was ranked as high as the best overall prospect for his high school class. Fast forward to Saturday night and no one would blame you for assuming that premonition came true based solely on that night’s performance. In reality, it’s been a far bumpier ride through Rivers’ first seven seasons.
But Rivers could be righting the ship right in front of our eyes. Rivers has performed well through his first seven playoff games this year, averaging 7.6 points in just under 20 minutes per game on an effective field goal percentage of 62.5. He’s had a few very good games, including this past Saturday, when he shot 2-for-4 from three and held Steph Curry in check the entire night. Basketball Insider’s writer Matt John covered Rivers’ importance to the Rockets’ postseason run earlier this week, and many in the media have said the series could have easily been 2-1 in favor of the Rockers if Rivers hadn’t come down with the flu in late April. Regardless of your thoughts on Rivers, it’s clear that he’s due for a significant raise from his current $1.15 million salary.
Status: Unrestricted; 2018-19 Salary: $4.325 million; Projected Contract: 3 years, $15 million
Scott has been a Swiss army knife for Coach Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers since coming over from the Clippers in the Tobias Harris trade, averaging 7.8 points on 41% from three in 27 games. He has especially shown his value in the 2019 NBA Playoffs.
Scott is a tough veteran with a knack for defense and shooting. He has hit some critical shots in the playoffs thus far, none bigger than the dagger that sealed Game Four against Brooklyn in the first-round, which all but eliminated the Nets.
The 6-foot-8 Scott is about as versatile as they come. He has a 6-foot-11 wingspan and can guard four positions, including some centers. He hasn’t shot too well this post-season, but his defense has been on full display. He’s had tough matchups with Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam when he’s been on the floor, but that only speaks to Coach Brown’s confidence in the 30-year old forward.
After signing a one-year deal prior to this season, look for Scott to either sign on for a longer-term deal or seek out a higher annual salary on a short-term contract.
Status: Unrestricted; 2018-19 Salary: $2.795 million; Projected Contract: 2 years, $10 million
While confidence hasn’t been an issue for Curry since entering the NBA in 2013, his belief in himself and his understanding of what’s expected of him seems to have developed a bit since landing in Portland. This postseason, Curry is averaging 6.1 points in 18.8 minutes per game on 48% from three – highlighted by a 16-point Game 4 against the Nuggets in which he shot 4-for-6 from three.
If nothing else, the six-year veteran has proven that he’s not afraid of the moment and can be reliable in clutch situations – which was never a foregone conclusion in years’ past. Curry has caught the league’s attention and should net himself a nice contract this offseason.
Status: Player Option; 2018-19 Salary: $1.6 million; Projected Contract: 3 years, $9 million
The 76ers are probably more than a little worried about the potential for turnover on their roster considering that nine of their 14 potential rotation guys will be unrestricted free agents or possess a player option. James Ennis is a part of the latter group. Ennis is seen as a similar, albeit less developed player to Mike Scott. He is a strong defender who can stretch the floor with his three-point shot. Lucky for him, Ennis has come up big at the perfect time. He scored 11 points and shot 4-for-5 from three in Game 1 against the Raptors. He followed that up with 11 points in Game 2 and 10 points and five rebounds (two offensive) in Game 3. At 6-foot-7, Ennis can guard three positions effectively. And Ennis is a career 36% three-point shooter. Ennis will be 29 in July, meaning he is arguably in his physical prime. It would be wise for a team to lock him up through his prime before he continues his ascent and increases his value.
Status: Unrestricted; 2018-19 Salary: $9.5 million; Projected Contract: 2 years, $18 million
Dudley demonstrated that he brings more to the table than just veteran leadership in 2018-19. He proved that he is still an above average defender who makes good decisions offensively. Dudley’s play in the playoffs was certainly noteworthy. He made Ben Simmons work his tail off and also spent a fair amount of time guarding Joel Embiid. In Game 1, Dudley guarded Simmons on 22 possessions and Embiid on three possessions, allowing only a combined two points. That kind of versatility is hard to find. And when it comes along with a positive locker room influence and a reliable jumper, that sort of value cannot be understated. Dudley won’t get a long-term deal given that he’ll turn 34 shortly after free agency begins, but he proved enough to warrant a generous, fully-guaranteed two-year deal.
Hopefully for the teams that ink the above-mentioned players, the playoffs was less a flash in the pan and more an indication of things to come. It’s impossible to know who of the bunch will boom and who will bust, but it’s likely some will continue their upward trajectory while others fall short of expectations. With teams making better decisions now than ever before, we’ll see if they can correctly differentiate between flashy performances and tangible skill. Only time will tell.
NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong
Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.
It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.
Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.
Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.
1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.
A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.
Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part. Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.
Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.
Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.
Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.
Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.
Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.
The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.
The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.
To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.
For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.
To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.
Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.
On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.
Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?
Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.
Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.
In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.
For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.
Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.
We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.
With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.
The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old
Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.
He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.
Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.
Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old
Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.
He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.
Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.
Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old
Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.
He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.
One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old
Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards
Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.
It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.
Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.
The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.
But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.
Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old
Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.
But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.
Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.
Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old
Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.
And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.
While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.
If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.
Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old
Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).
Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.
Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.
Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old
Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.
Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.
But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.
Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.
Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old
Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old
Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old
With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.