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NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Indiana Pacers

The “Grading The Offseason” series at Basketball Insiders moves along as Spencer Davies details the summer of a restructured and improved Indiana Pacers team.

Spencer Davies

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Happy NBA Schedule Release Week, everyone! With the 82-game set released on Monday afternoon, we now know what marquee matchups are on the docket for the 2019-20 campaign.

While FIBA World Cup is officially underway and training camp is right around the corner, Basketball Insiders has kicked off another week of its Grading The Offseason series. We’ll move right along next with the Indiana Pacers.

Overview

After taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink of elimination in the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs, it was evident that the Indiana Pacers were destined for greatness. Victor Oladipo took a leap into superstardom, guided a team that was predicted to flounder following the departure of Paul George and put them on the map at a national scale.

This past season, that momentum continued with the maturation of the group as a whole. Indiana’s offense was fluid and the defense was physical. While there were ups and downs to start the first couple of months, a torrid December left them at 25-12 entering the New Year.

The staggered one-two punch of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis provided different looks between units with improved play on both ends. Bojan Bogdanovic played a pivotal role as a supplemental scorer. And, of course, Thaddeus Young did his damage on the block and assumed responsibility for guarding the opposition’s best night-in and night-out.

The Pacers rode that wave into late January and then the unthinkable happened. On a fastbreak opportunity against the Toronto Raptors, Oladipo abruptly fell to the ground and clutched at his knee as the team was gaining momentum. A hush fell over Bankers Life Fieldhouse as the All-Star guard was taken off the floor on a stretcher.

Everyone’s fears were confirmed the next day: Oladipo had ruptured the quadriceps tendon in his right knee. He would go on to have season-ending surgery soon thereafter, and head coach Nate McMillan was faced with yet another tall task to rally the locker room going forward.

Once again, there weren’t many believers. How could a group like Indiana, who fed off Oladipo’s energy and enthusiasm, possibly be taken seriously?

We had that question answered with emphasis—heart and resiliency. The very same attitude that had taken the Pacers to the playoffs the year before didn’t go away. The selfless, collective team effort McMillan helped establish proved to be more than enough to galvanize a mentally tough and battle-tested bunch.

Bogdanovic went on a scoring rampage as the Pacers’ number one option. Between February and March, the Bosnian swingman averaged over 22 points, four rebounds and two assists. Darren Collison stepped up as a floor general and consistent presence on the offensive end of the floor. Turner and Sabonis never waned outside of a few minor injuries.

In order to add another weapon, team president Kevin Pritchard went out and signed Wesley Matthews following a buyout with the New York Knicks. Unfortunately still, Indiana closed the season by losing 12 of its last 19 games heading into the playoffs—and the slide to end the campaign carried over.

Despite a closely contested four games with the Boston Celtics, the Pacers were swept out of the first round. Still, the results were not at all indicative of what they had accomplished and overcome that year. However, the scoreboard read 4-0 and the 2018-19 version of that scrappy squad had to look toward the summer.

Offseason

Aside from anticipating the progress of Oladipo’s rehab, the Pacers had plenty of decisions to make with ample cap space. There were impending free agency decisions of eight different players on their roster, including three key members of the core that pushed them past adversity. There was a focus on the NBA Draft as well that preceded the moratorium period.

Right off the bat, Pritchard traded for Phoenix Suns forward T.J. Warren and the No. 32 pick, which was sent to the Miami HEAT later that night for three future selections in the second round.

With the 18th pick in the draft, Indiana selected Georgian big man Goga Bitadze, a highly-regarded international prospect whom Pritchard admitted he had top 10 on the team’s draft board. The organization took Jarrell Brantley with Miami’s No. 50 pick and flipped the rookie forward to the Utah Jazz for a 2021 second-rounder and cash considerations.

On June 28, Collison surprisingly announced his retirement. Free agency approached quickly thereafter and the action followed suit. Bogdanovic swiftly agreed to a long-term contract with the Jazz. Young came to terms on a three-year deal with the Chicago Bulls. Just like that, that all-so-important veteran trio was gone.

In return, Pritchard wasted no time in response. The Pacers agreed to a sign-and-trade with the Milwaukee Bucks to acquire Malcolm Brogdon, sending future draft picks in exchange for the talented guard. Immediately after that news dropped, Jeremy Lamb and the team struck a deal to bring the former Hornets wing to Indianapolis.

At July’s end, Indiana signed point guard T.J. McConnell and inked a contract with Justin Holiday to reunite him with his brother Aaron. The organization converted Edmond Sumner’s two-way contract into a standard one as well.

Brian Bowen II and Naz Mitrou-Long agreed to separate deals as the new two-way players in the building. Exhibit 10 contracts were also extended to JaKennan Gant and 28-year-old comeback hopeful C.J. Wilcox.

Their most recent move was bringing in veteran journeyman JaKarr Sampson for one year at the veteran minimum after backing out of his deal with a team in China.

So, as you can see, the Pacers have restructured over half of their roster.

PLAYERS IN: T.J. Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell, Justin Holiday, JaKarr Sampson, Goga Bitadze, Edmond Sumner (converted), Brian Bowen II (two-way), Naz Mitrou-Long (two-way), C.J. Wilcox (Exhibit 10), JaKeenan Gant (Exhibit 10)

PLAYERS OUT: Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young, Tyreke Evans, Wesley Matthews, Kyle O’Quinn, Davon Reed

What’s Next

Despite lacking the immediate chemistry we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons, Indiana improved significantly.

Once Oladipo returns—which Pritchard surmises will be around December or January—they should be a top-four team in the Eastern Conference on paper. The only thing that could be a hindrance is finding cohesion and the right rotations to ensure those goals are reached.

Envision the matchup issues the Pacers are going to run out there when they’re back to full health. A five-man unit consisting of Brogdon, Oladipo, Warren, Sabonis and Turner would give opponents fits on the defensive end. They won’t be as imposing as past iterations of the team, but they will have plenty of length to gets stops and create turnovers.

Depth is a huge player in all of this as well. That bench is going to be a force to be reckoned with. We, naturally, have to see how the rotations play out for McMillan and company, first and foremost. But Aaron Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday would be a fine trio to pack a powerful punch while the starters catch their breath.

If you’re unaware of the most popular topic with Indiana, it’s the debate of who has a future in Indiana between the rising big men—Turner or Sabonis? The former has been on the fast track to improving his body and established himself as a top defender in the NBA with a consistent jump shot. The latter is coming off his best season as a pro where he essentially put up a double-double nightly off the bench as a presence on the block and the boards.

We’re going to find out whether or not pairing those two will work, as McMillan told reporters last month that both will be featured in the 2019-20 starting lineup. The coach said that Sabonis’ play has forced his hand to find more minutes for the up-and-coming Lithuanian.

It should be of note that Sabonis is eligible for a rookie extension going into his fourth year as a professional. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the deadline for the Pacers to offer him one is Oct. 21 at 6 p.m.

Turner is already secured for the long term following the signing of his extension before the beginning of last season. Will Sabonis receive the same offer? And if he does, would he accept it?

These are the storylines that are going to garner the most attention as Indiana looks to make some noise in the NBA world with its fresh-faced group.

Other than that, the table is set with plenty of talent and many team-friendly contracts for multiple years. Expect this version of the Pacers to be faster and more versatile than they’ve been in quite some time.

OFFSEASON GRADE: A-

Spencer Davies is a Deputy Editor and a Senior NBA Writer based in Cleveland in his third year with Basketball Insiders. Covering the league and the Cavaliers for the past five seasons, his bylines have appeared on Bleacher Report, FOX Sports and HoopsHype.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards

Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.

Drew Maresca

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It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.

Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.

The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.

But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.

Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old

Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.

But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.

Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.

Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old

Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.

And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.

While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.

If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.

Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old

Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).

Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.

Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.

Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old

Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.

Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.

But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.

Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old

Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old

Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old

With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.

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NBA Daily: Opposite Plotlines for Today’s Matchups

With the two matchups going on today, Matt John examines the two teams who could be in the most trouble because of one of their individual stars for opposite reasons.

Matt John

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The second round of the NBA playoffs was hyped up to be one of the most entertaining we’ve had in years. So far, they haven’t fallen short of expectations. We knew that Houston and Los Angeles’ battle of opposite philosophies would make for some twists and turns. We knew that Boston and Toronto would duke it out in an Atlantic Division showdown. We knew that Miami would push Milwaukee to new heights. We didn’t really know if the Nuggets would give the Clippers a good series, but the fact that they have so far has made an intense postseason all the more gripping.

Anyway, today we’re getting two games from two series in completely opposite places. The Lakers and the Rockets will face off for the series lead, while the HEAT will try to finish off the Bucks once and for all. Below, we’re going to focus on two teams who have an individual star that either may be more flawed than we thought or one that may not be as flawed as we thought.

Bucks vs. HEAT: Giannis is great and all, but…

We all pretty much knew this was going to be a good series. We did not expect this.

The buzz surrounding Bucks v. HEAT was that Miami was going to make Milwaukee earn every win they got in this series. If that was the plan, then Miami has failed miserably, because until Khris Middleton went supernova on them on Sunday, Milwaukee had come up terribly short.

Let’s first give Miami the credit that they are due and more. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler alone, Miami was going to be a tough matchup for Milwaukee – but to see the Bucks all but roll over in this series is an unpleasant sight. Acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala has paid huge dividends and it’s showing. There are other factors involved, but Miami’s defensive efforts have limited Giannis to 21.8 points a game and that’s played a role in the HEAT being in the driver’s seat of this series.

Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, this series has not been a good look for the Defensive Player of the Year. Especially since it looks like his second consecutive MVP (presumably) is right around the corner. So, to see both him and Milwaukee, once an unstoppable force without an immovable object in sight, get stopped by a sturdy but not immovable squad is saddening.

Nearly a year ago, Basketball Insiders compared these current Bucks to the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic from the late-2000’s/early 2010’s. To oversimplify things, both were contenders led by a superstar with a rare physique that made them tough to stop. To put the superstar in the best position, they surrounded them with playmakers and three-point shooters.

While the teams’ roster constructions weren’t exactly the same, their strengths as a team certainly were. Now we’re seeing the Bucks’ flaws just as we did the Magic 10 years ago. If you have the personnel to make the lone superstar uncomfortable, the team doesn’t function as well.

Giannis is near impossible to stop, but the one major flaw is that if you take away his ability to drive and force him into a jumper, he loses his rhythm. Even if his shot is on – never a guarantee – his opponents will let him beat them that way until he makes them pay. Hardly any team can pick on this, but the HEAT are one of them, and now they’re one win away from their first Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James took his talents out of South Beach.

This ultimately is what puts Antetokounmpo below the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard for now. Those guys are rare physical specimens like him, but their elite games don’t revolve entirely around their natural gifts as he does or Dwight did. At 25 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to change that and, for all we know, he will, but to see him struggle at a time when the conference was supposed to run through him has ignited tons of questions.

Milwaukee’s technically not out yet, but they’ve shown their mortality against Miami. If this really is it for them, then they’ve got to find a quick fix for this problem because if they don’t, then the unspeakable may happen.

Lakers vs. Rockets: Westbrook has been bad and all but…

Shaking off the rust and recovering from a balky knee would be tough for anyone. For Russell Westbrook, it’s killing his productivity and, in turn, the Rockets’ playoff chances. He’s averaging 15.6 points on 39/16/47 splits with a most recent 10-point, 4-of-15 effort from the field which included seven turnovers and air balling wide-open threes sticking out like a sore thumb.

It also doesn’t help that he’s playing the Lakers of all teams. When Westbrook has been in, the Lakers have taken advantage of his shortcomings offensively and it shows both on the court and the stat line.

Most of Westbrook’s damage is hurting Houston on the offensive end. With the All-Star guard in the game, Houston is minus-13.7 with him on the court, the worst offensive rating on the team. The 12 turnovers he’s coughed up in this series probably have something to do with that.

With Westbrook’s struggles and his predecessor Chris Paul coming off of his best individual season since 2016, this, of course, has led to many second-guessing the swap last summer. Or let’s rephrase that: People have been second-guessing that trade since the moment it was announced and, in light of recent events, they’re piling on now more than ever.

Maybe they’re right. Even after playing in the NBA for over a decade now, Westbrook still hasn’t proven that he can control himself enough to reach his potential as a team player. We’ve seen glimpses. On the other hand, Paul showed that he can still pick apart defenses while holding his own on that end.

But replacing Paul with Westbrook was Harden’s idea. He didn’t want to play with Paul anymore and chose to play with one of his closest friends. You may think that the better fit is what’s best for the team, but we’ve seen the damage that can happen when your team’s best players have friction with one another. It hurt Utah this season. It hurt Boston last season. It destroyed the Lakers back in 2013. There’s no telling what it could have done to Houston this season.

Besides, we know that as bad as Westbrook has been, he’s capable of being better. Not a knockdown shooter, not even an efficient scorer, but he has done better in the past when the focus was on him. The more days he takes to shake off the rust from his knee, the more optimistic the Rockets ought to be.

The Rockets have to take the glass-half-full on this one because they don’t really have a choice otherwise.

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