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NBA Daily: Is It Time To Cash Out On Kemba Walker?

Should the Hornets get serious about trading Kemba Walker or risk losing him in 2019 for next to nothing?

Steve Kyler

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Is It Time To Sell?

Every professional sports team at some point has to decide when its time to cash out, especially if they have a star player heading towards free agency. The Charlotte Hornets are a team teetering on this decision with star guard Kemba Walker.

Now, let’s be honest for a moment. The Hornets are getting nothing of meaningful value in a trade for Walker if they decided to put him on the trade market—that’s something that will drive part of the decision. Check out these UK sports books with free bets!

The other part of the decision is evaluating the marketplace. This is where Charlotte may have an advantage that’s easy to overlook, which is the ability to massively overpay.

Looking ahead to the cap situations for the NBA in the summer of 2019, there doesn’t appear to be a lot worth getting excited over. While it’s possible someone unexpected goes into cap clearing mode to get space, the teams that project to have space in 2019 also project to have space in 2018, meaning some of that 2019 money could get spent in July and change the landscape even more.

But for the sake of discussion, let’s assume most of the 2019 cap space teams swing and miss on anything meaningful this summer and have flexibility the following summer. Not only will Walker be a name to watch, but guys like Boston’s Kyrie Irving, Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler, Golden State’s Klay Thompson, Dallas’ Harrison Barnes, Detroit’s Tobias Harris, San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard and Cleveland’s Kevin Love can all hit unrestricted free agency.

That’s a pretty respectable free agent class.

While most of those names will likely stay where they are, especially if their teams shower them with full max contracts as most would expect, there are a few names that might make the market interesting.

The wrinkle in all of it is the teams projected to have space. Based on what’s guaranteed today, the top of the 2019 cap space board starts with the LA Clippers.

The Clippers currently have just Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari under contract going into 2019. They will have qualifying offers on Milos Teodosic and Sam Dekker, but that’s about it. If the Clippers play their cards right, they could be looking at what could be close to $48 million in usable cap space, making them the biggest threat to poach a player because of the LA marketplace. It should be noted, though, that DeAndre Jordan’s situation will have an impact here.

The Chicago Bulls come in second on the 2019 cap space list with just $35.77 million in cap commitments. The problem for the Bulls is they are going to have to start paying their young guys, most notably Zach LaVine. That’s won’t stop the Bulls from getting to cap space, it’s simply a variable the Bulls have to address this summer that could get expensive.

The Philadelphia 76ers could come in third on the 2019 cap space list, although it seems the 76ers may go all in this summer on re-signing guard J.J. Redick and a swing at a big fish or two. If the 76ers miss, they still have an extension for Ben Simmons to consider, but that shouldn’t impact the ability to get to meaningful space.

For the Hornets, those three situations have to be a little scary, as all of themff something Charlotte can’t offer – big markets and rosters (save maybe the Clippers) with potentially higher upside.

The next group of cap space markets might get to real salary cap room, but its more likely they spend this summer like say the Houston Rockets or are equal to less desirable situations like Sacramento (similar), Dallas (has Dennis Smith Jr), Atlanta (similar) or Phoenix (likely drafts a point guard).

That brings us back to the Hornets decision making process.

If the Hornets put Walker on the market, historically, teams get pennies on the dollar for high-level players headed to free agency. If traded, its more likely than not that Walker hits free agency and goes shopping. That’s the scary part of trading for an expiring contract unless you get the player early enough for him to grow attached to the situation, most players explore options. That tends to drive down the potential return.

The Hornets can also start extension discussions with Walker and his camp this summer and it seems more likely than not the Hornets will pay Walker the full max allowed under the collective bargaining agreement, which could be a deal north of $150 million and he could ink that in July.

It’s possible that someone offers the Hornets the moon for Walker. That has happened in the past. The Celtics gave the Cavaliers a pretty solid return for Irving, a player the Cavaliers had to trade. So it’s not out of the question real offers come in, especially with the NBA trade deadline approaching, but what’s far more likely is the Hornets wait out this season and try to extend Walker this summer.

League sources at the G-League Showcase last week, doubted that any traction could be had on Walker while admitting he’s a name to watch, despite however unlikely a trade seemed today.

The challenge for the Hornets isn’t as simple as cashing out of Walker, not just because the return will be low, but also because where would the franchise go from here?

It’s easy to say re-build through the draft, but glance around the NBA today – how many of those rebuild through the draft situations are yielding competitive teams? How many of them have been rebuilding for five years or more?

Rebuilding through the draft is a painfully slow and frustrating process that usually costs you a coach or two and typically a new front office. Rebuilding through the draft is time consuming and usually very expensive.

It’s easier to rebuild around a star already in place and the fact that Walker himself laughs off the notion of him being anywhere but Charlotte is at least a good sign and the Hornets have some time before they have to really make a decision.

At some point, Charlotte has to decide when to cash out. For the Hornets, the time to make that decision on Walker might be the February 8 trade deadline. It might also be July 1, when they’ll know whether Walker would sign a max contract extension.

If he won’t commit then, the Hornets have their answer and can use the summer to try an extract a package similar to what the Cavaliers got for Irving.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.

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NBA Daily: The NCAA’s Recent Policy Changes are Problematic

The NCAA made unilateral changes to its rules that may look good on paper but more likely make a difficult situation even more complicated.

James Blancarte

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Going into 1995 NBA Draft, the NBA still allowed high school players to enter straight into the NBA but few had actually done so over the years. That year, Kevin Garnett, an extremely talented high school prospect, went straight into the draft from high school and went on to have a Hall of Fame career. Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, like Garnett, also went straight to the NBA from high school and each have also had Hall of Fame careers. Many other similarly situated players such as Rashard Lewis, Jermaine O’Neal and Tracy McGrady succeeded on the same path. Yet concerns remained that although there were individual success stories, perhaps it would be best overall to have kids mature a bit more before entering the NBA. Eventually, through collective bargaining, new rules were put in place that prohibited high school players from entering the league.

As time has gone on there has been some frustration with the fact that perhaps these young men, legally adults at 18 years of age, have been unfairly prevented from earning at least one year of significant income as an NBA rookie. There is also frustration, mentioned below, at how the NCAA and college programs have policed themselves (or failed to do so) over the years. There is rampant abuse and under the table dealing that has largely benefitted the people around these young athletes and the schools, while often times harming the players or not benefitting them in any tangible way. The FBI has been conducting an investigation into these practices, which has shed new light and more focus onto the situation. Accordingly, now there is widespread discussion and speculation that the NBA again intends to reverse course and allow players to bypass the collegiate game.

With accusations of impropriety, constant attacks against the amateur model and an ongoing federal investigation, the NCAA took drastic action last Wednesday to counter the negativity around the college game — at least in appearance.

First the good part; players will be allowed to enter the draft and should they be not be chosen, the player may return to school under certain circumstances. Back at his collegiate program, a player can return to a place where he can continue to mature as a basketball player and as a college student. This is a nice option for many players and should have been available years ago.

For NBA teams, they now face the prospect of a first wave of high school seniors going straight to the NBA in addition to the other collegiate and international prospects. If it turns out that these high school prospects are collectively more prepared than expected and demonstrate they can contribute at a high level shortly after entering the league, there could be a sizable shift in how teams value first-round draft picks. Teams are already extremely hesitant to trade first-round picks, which means there would be some additional stagnation in the trade market. There are many complexities to this prospective new system that could have consequences that aren’t even foreseeable at this juncture.

Additionally, while this may be an appealing option for some players who are on the fence about going pro, it may not have as much widespread appeal. Some prospects may not realistically expect to be drafted. Once skipped over, a player is likely to seek compensation in the G-League or by playing international basketball. That’s the rub overall, the college game is sticking to the amateur model and the insistence that players not be compensated beyond the education they receive. Even worse, a player may have declared for the draft knowing that he might be leaving behind academic or conduct violations behind. Should that player attempt to go back, he would have to deal with any situation that joining the professional ranks would have avoided. The point here is that while this new rule may look good for the NCAA from a PR perspective, the truth is it may have little benefit to the college players overall.

Now the thornier part. As reported, the NCAA will allow “elite” high school prospects to obtain an agent. Previously this would have been a violation of NCAA rules that prevent amateur students from doing so. Should a player instead decide to go to college, he would have to break off his relationship with the agent. This adds more complications and issues to a system that is already plagued with questionable rules and policies.

In addition, it appears that USA Basketball was not initially thrilled to be put in a position to determine which players are considered “elite,” which could cause some more logistical issues.

There is much more to dive into on this issue unfortunately. The NCAA has seemingly taken a strategy to fixing issues that are symptoms of a bigger problem – that is the NCAA’s insistence on treating its players as students who should not be compensated rather than actual athletes. There are no easy solutions to this situation and adding more layers of complexity with unilateral changes such are likely to make matters worse.

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NBA Daily: It Still Isn’t Time To Expand The NBA

As much as we talk about expanding the NBA, has anything really changed to suggest it’s any more viable now? Basketball Insiders’ Publisher Steve Kyler digs into the barriers that have to be overcome.

Steve Kyler

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Expanding The NBA?

In what has become an annual off-season obsession, the topic of expanding the NBA beyond its current 30 teams has surfaced, again.

There is little doubt that the top-level concept of more NBA teams is fun to contemplate, mainly because there are major cities without teams. There is almost no one that wouldn’t want to see the Seattle market get their Sonics back, or Las Vegas complete their pro sports team trifecta by adding an NBA team to their exploding local sports market. Kansas City has long been talked about as an appealing basketball market, along with Louisville. There is a growing swell of renewed support in Vancouver for another run through the NBA, and Mexico City continues to host massive crowds during the now annual regular season NBA games held there.

So why not pull the trigger on one or two of them if local ownership groups can pony up the expected $1 billion or more expansion fees?

There are a number of issues with expanding the NBA. Here are a few of them:

Revenue Sharing

The biggest hurdle facing NBA expansion is revenue sharing. Currently, the biggest NBA cash markets are contributing serious dollars to the lesser markets to create a more balanced playing field for the league as a whole. While that’s evened out some things economically, there are still more than a handful of NBA teams that would be money losers if revenue sharing were backed out of the equation.

Equally, the NBA salary cap system is based on total revenue generated by the league, which does not take into account local market inequities. For example, the teams in LA have local television deals worth almost three times that of say Milwaukee or New Orleans. Those teams still have to pay out salaries and compete in a salary and expense landscape of teams sometimes generating twice their local revenue. Revenue sharing helps make that work, but adding new teams, that may or may not compete economically is a tough sell, especially to ownership groups that are already sharing dollars with other teams.

Proponents of expansion point to an easy fix, by not allowing new teams to participate in Revenue Sharing for a fixed amount of time but is that really a reasonable long-term answer? Adding a new team or teams and then immediately handicapping them economically for the first years of their existence?

Some would say that problem would simply have to be factored into an expansion agreement, and new owners would have to shoulder that risk as part of gaining entry into such an exclusive ownership club, but is that really good for competitive balance and solidarity of the business?

The TV Deal Isn’t Forever

Currently, the NBA is swimming in a record-setting media rights deal that has ballooned franchise valuations and NBA payrolls dramatically.

The problem with the current rights deal is the shifting and changing landscape of broadcasting. With traditional cable services dying out, and new “Over The Top” media players coming into the sports rights market, there is a sense that maybe the next round of rights negotiations could see the NBA eclipsing the current deal, and that would be a second windfall of dollars current NBA owners would have to share with new owners.

There is also the risk that with subscribers defecting the NBA current partners in droves, that broadcast rights could become less valuable by the end of the current agreements or far more complicated than the current two-partner model that’s in place now.

There was talk the last time around that Google and Facebook, the titans of the digital world, wanted in on NBA rights. That could be a good thing for preserving the value of rights related revenue streams, but its far from a given that NBA games will be consumed the same way they are being consumed today inside the next five years. That is a variable that has a huge impact on the appeal of expansion.

Is There Enough High-Level Talent?

The biggest on-court hurdle for expansion is the lack of star talent. Ask any NBA fan to name the top 20 NBA players, and you’ll find the talent pool flattens out pretty fast outside the top ten or 15 players.

Current NBA teams are struggling to find franchise cornerstones now. Would adding more teams really help competitive balance, especially with current stars opting to play together when they reach unrestricted free agency?

There is little doubt new expansion teams could field rosters, there are plenty of talented players that could populate a team. But the last time the NBA allowed expansion, the new teams were restricted from landing the top overall picks in the draft. How do those new teams compete?

Pay Once Eat Forever

The idea of a $1 billion expansion fee on the surface seems enticing. Especially given that the bulk of that fee would go to existing owners. Let’s assume that the NBA allowed two new teams, that’s $2 billion in expansion fees, divided by at least 30 teams (the NBA historically has taken a piece of those fees to cover operating costs), but for the sake of discussion, let’s say $2 billion paid out to 30 ownership groups, or roughly $66.66 million per owner.

Is a $66.6 million per team worth a slice of the NBA pie in perpetuity?

Let’s take the current $24 billion TV deal that breaks out to roughly $800 million per team over the life of the deal. Let’s say the next deal is $28 billion, that’s $933.3 million per team. If two more mouths are added to the table, that reduces the per team share down to $875 million, or $58 million less per team.

So, is getting paid a one-time team fee of $66.6 million now worth $58 million less in a new rights deal later?

Sure, there are caps and limitations that could be imposed on new ownership groups as part of expansion agreement, which lessens that impact on the current individual teams, but the biggest argument against expansion is that new teams don’t raise the revenue waterline enough to justify the slice of the revenue pie they get forever.

From a fan perspective, more teams sound like a great idea, especially in markets with rabid fan interest, but the reason expansion hasn’t been actively explored is because of many of the items listed above. That’s not to say those obstacles can’t be overcome, but when you hear NBA commissioner Adam Silver really downplay expansion, there are a lot of reasons for that, and most of them are simply that the current owners don’t want to see their golden goose diluted any more than necessary.

Expanding the NBA isn’t a dead issue, it’s simply not one the NBA seems overly eager to start chasing.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @TommyBeer, @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @JamesB_NBA, @MattJohnNBA, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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NBA Daily: Memphis Poised for Comeback

After one of the franchise’s worst seasons, “Grit-and-Grind” should be back with the vengeance after the moves the Grizzlies made.

Matt John

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There are a few teams that should bounce back after their disappointing output from last season.

Washington certainly comes to mind with John Wall coming back healthy and after what they added this summer. Detroit does too, since they never really played with their current roster fully healthy after the Blake Griffin trade. However, the team with the safest bet to make the strongest comeback this season is the Memphis Grizzlies.

It’s a shame what happened to Memphis last season, and after such a promising start too.

The Grizzlies started off as hot as could be, as they won five of their first six games against some stiff competition, namely, the Warriors, the Rockets (twice), and the Pelicans. Teams are always bound to cool off after a hot streak, but shortly after the Grizzlies came back to earth, Mike Conley Jr. went down for the season with a heel injury.

It all went downhill from there.

Besides the Celtics, there wasn’t a team bitten as badly by the injury bug as the Grizzlies were in 2018. Just about everyone on the roster besides Marc Gasol missed a good chunk of time with some kind of ailment. It may have helped that the injuries led to a high lottery pick, but who enjoys watching their team lose 19 games in a row?

A season in hell usually triggers a rebuild for a team like Memphis. Conley and Gasol aren’t getting any younger, and the Western Conference remains as tough as ever. But as evidenced by the moves they made this summer, the upcoming challenge this season didn’t phase them for a second.

Hence, NBA audiences should expect Grit-and-Grind to return for the following reasons.

A Savvy Off-Season

Because of their tight salary cap situation, the Grizzlies only had so much cap room to work with this summer. Despite the cap limits, they made the most of what they had at their arsenal.

First, they made use of their expendable assets. The Grizzlies probably regret trading the 2019 Clippers pick for Deyonta Davis, but at least he was traded for something valuable. Davis, along with Ben McLemore, was traded to Sacramento for the criminally underrated Garrett Temple. Though he is a late-bloomer, Garrett Temple should give Memphis a veteran sharpshooter who can also play solid defense. In other words, think of him as the new Courtney Lee in Memphis.

Next, with the available cap room that they had, they gave Spurs alum Kyle Anderson a 4 year, $37 million contract. That may have been a slight overpay, but Anderson fits the style that Memphis loves to play. While not a floor stretcher, what Anderson brings defensively — his Defensive Real Plus-Minus of 3.2 was second among small forwards — should improve the Grizzlies’ defense, which was ranked no. 25 in defensive rating last season (111).

They also made under-the-radar acquisitions such as signing Shelvin Mack, a productive backup point guard who has played under brilliant coaches such as Quin Snyder and Brad Stevens, and Omri Casspi, who was a rotation player for the Warriors before injuries ended his season prematurely.

Though not the sexiest group of names, Temple, Anderson, Mack, and Casspi is a fantastic haul for a team that was looking for depth this summer.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Grizzlies picked wisely at the 2018 draft. With the fourth overall pick, they snagged the hotshot big from Michigan State, and boy, was he the talk of the town this summer.

Jackson was a perfect fit for the Grizzlies because what he brings to the table should make him NBA-ready from the start. Jackson was one of the most obvious stand-outs at the summer league, as his agility and floor spacing abilities wowed audiences everywhere. Best of all, though he already has proven to hit the three-pointer, he showed that his all-around offensive game is raw but malleable.

What makes Jackson the perfect player for Memphis is that he fits the team’s timeline no matter where Memphis goes from here on out. What he brings to the court should fit well with the Grizzlies’ hopes of going on a playoff run this season. At the same time, should they decide to rebuild, Jackson is a perfect building block to start with.

Regardless of how he fares compared to his peers in his draft, Jackson was the right choice for the Grizzlies because of what he can offer both now and later.

Their Best Players’ Health

Injuries ruined the Grizzlies last season, so it’s imperative that their guys will be ready to go once the season begins. That all starts with Mike Conley. Conley waited until mid-season to have surgery on his heel. It’s sad to see one of the game’s underrated floor generals go down like that, so it’s encouraging to see that he should be fine coming into the season.

Conley runs the Grizzlies, so having him healthy for the season opener should be very encouraging for Grind City’s fans.

Then there’s Gasol. Foot problems are not easy to deal with for bigs, especially as they approach their mid-30’s. So far, Marc Gasol has been an exception to that. Gasol has been pretty healthy over the last two seasons since his foot surgery in 2016 and was one of the few Grizzlies who stayed on the court through most of the season.

Gasol is not out of the woods yet, but Grizzlies fans should be relieved to see that their franchise player has not slowed down a bit in the face of adversity.

Conley and Gasol carry this stable, so having them at 100 percent should do wonders for the Grizzlies this season. Nothing is set in stone, but having the two faces of the franchise fully functional is always a good thing.

Other Future Moves

Since the Grizzlies fetched back decent value out of McLemore and Davis, who’s to say they can’t do the same with other dead weight on the roster? I wrote last week about how the moves the Grizzlies made this summer indicate that Chandler Parsons will probably spend the majority of his season on the bench. Since the Grizzlies’ transactions have demonstrated that they are going all in, trading Parsons may be in play.

Trading Parsons for a player on a fair contract is probably out of the question, so the Grizzlies may look to trade him for another player who is overpaid but at least more productive than him. That’s only in theory, though. If everything goes Memphis’ way this year, expect Parsons to be in some trade rumors.

At the end of the day, you have to tip your hat to Memphis. They have steadfastly refused to pull the plug on Grit-and-Grind even though they haven’t done much since pushing the Warriors to six games in the conference semifinals three years ago. With what they’ve added to their roster, it’s clear that they’re going for as much success as they can possibly attain.

A title is probably not on the horizon, but the Grizzlies should be admired for milking Grit-and-Grind to the very last drop.

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