Now that the dust has settled on an unpredictable NBA Draft — what exactly have we learned? In amongst the unrelenting rumors, refused workouts and surprise reaches, there are a few key takeaways from Brooklyn. Of course, some of these are one-off instances, but others are definitely part of modern-day draft patterns. While draft night may sometimes seem like complete chaos or chance, each scenario on this rundown has been boiling over for weeks. Between passing on a talented prospect to letting an injured one slide, here are four important lessons from the 2018 NBA Draft.
Luka Dončić… Not The No. 1?
For months and months, it appeared as if Luka Dončić was poised to become the No. 1 overall pick in this draft. Even today, it’s hard to believe that somebody with Dončić’s age and resume wasn’t the top selection. In 2017-18 alone, the Slovenian took home EuroLeague MVP and Finals MVP plus ACB MVP, with championships in both leagues to boot — but here we are. Dončić averaged 14.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.1 steals over just 25 minutes per game, quickly transforming into the most well-rounded overseas prospect of all-time. But as impressive as Dončić was throughout the spring, the potential ceilings of both DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III eventually won out.
At 7-foot-1, Ayton’s 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game were undeniably worthy of a top selection too, pairing well alongside Devin Booker and Josh Jackson for the foreseeable future. While the jury is still out on Bagley III — his defense needs some major fine-tuning — he won’t take key touches away from De’Aaron Fox either. More or less, nobody wants to be the organization to miss on such a franchise-altering pick. The Suns, Kings and even the Hawks may eventually regret passing on Dončić, but when general managers’ entire careers can depend on making the right choice at the right time, it’s not difficult to understand why the top of the draft unfolded as it did.
Playing Hard To Get Doesn’t Always Work Out…
As draft boards began to take shape, there was one particularly interesting situation sitting at No. 4 overall. Jaren Jackson Jr., solidly leading the second tier of prospects, was looking like a lock at the Memphis Grizzlies’ pick — but with one major caveat: Jackson Jr. reportedly didn’t work out or give his medical information to the franchise. After he was drafted, Jackson Jr. called those rumors “a tad out of context” — but, obviously, those are some massive red flags. Either way, Memphis went with their gut and selected the talented forward anyway.
But beyond all that, Memphis absolutely made the right move by sticking to their guns. Putting a modern three-point shooting, defensive-minded athlete next to Marc Gasol should prove to be an absolute nightmare for years to come. Naturally, Jackson Jr. will get plenty of easy looks from the stellar Mike Conley Jr. too — so if the draftee was once apprehensive, surely that will pass soon. Still, it reflects on a larger NBA pattern, wherein which prospective athletes sensibly look to mold their own path out of college. With players trying to control their draft narratives more than ever, it’s reassuring to see that some franchises will take their target first and then figure out the rest.
We may never know Jackson Jr.’s full thought process behind not working out for the Grizzlies, but there’s a great chance that the former Spartan was made for Memphis’ tough brand of basketball — and we should all be glad we’ll get to see it.
…But Injuries Will Lead To A Slide
Michael Porter Jr. — what a year for him, huh?
After missing out on much of his only collegiate season due to back surgery, Porter Jr. promised that he was feeling better than ever. But over the last month, scouts and front offices were treated to canceled workouts and hazy uncertainty. And, at the end of the day, it probably scared a handful of franchises away from the talented scorer. Just this week, the Kings heavily considered Porter Jr. at No. 2 overall — but even with that sudden unlikelihood passing by, few thought he’d drop out of the top ten altogether. Outside of the guaranteed money that Porter Jr. will miss out on, redshirting his rookie year may also be on the table as well.
The inherent upside with Porter Jr. is obvious, but — similarly to the Dončić issue — it’s tough to ask franchise officials to stake their livelihood on the prospect’s health. If Porter Jr.’s lingering issues stay with him and he never reaches his mountain of potential, that’s a tough pill to swallow. The 19-year-old would fall all the way down to No. 14, where the Denver Nuggets gladly scooped him up. During the combine in May, Porter Jr. called himself the best player in the draft — but it’s now up to him to prove them all wrong.
The Mysterious Men Nearly Miss Out
Let’s rewind to early April. Villanova had been just crowned NCAA champions for the second time in three years, the NBA playoffs were soundly on the horizon and mock drafts had begun to consistently pour out. Early on, there were two athletic big men that looked like shoo-ins as first-rounders: Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson. Despite their undercooked skill-sets, both players pulled out of the combine and then waited for the hype to build — except, well, it didn’t. Williams, who was typically projected in the early teens, slipped out of the lottery entirely, only to be rescued by the Boston Celtics at No. 27. Williams is a booming, powerful prospect, but he could’ve really benefited from competing against the other top prospects in May.
Although he’s now landed in an ideal situation with Brad Stevens, Al Horford and a process-driven Celtics squad, Williams likely cost himself a whole load of money over the last 30-plus days as well.
In Robinson’s case, many believed his floor was the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 25 — rumors swirling that the 7-foot-1 center even received a promise from the illustrious franchise. Instead, Robinson dropped to the New York Knicks at No. 36 overall. Robinson had originally committed to Western Kentucky in July of 2017 before dropping out to prepare for the draft. After skipping the combine last month, Robinson indeed exhibited the potential to be both a steady shot-blocker and three-point maker during his individual evaluations. But with little to go off of but high school highlight reels and small session workout tapes, he understandably fell.
Sometimes the hype is impossible to ignore, but not participating in the combine and staying as mysterious as possible hurt these ultra-talented prospects.
While the 2018 NBA Draft wasn’t quite the trade-heavy, drama-laden extravaganza much of the world expected, there are plenty of narratives to reflect upon. At the end of the day, the ink is barely dry on this year’s festivities and it’ll be some time before there’s any indication of these successes or failures. Still, there are lessons to be learned from every draft, workout or injury process and these are four conversations worth considering as the NBA quickly rolls into the summer league season.
NBA Daily: Who’s On The Move Next?
While the bulk of the NBA offseason is likely done, here are some names to watch as potential movers ahead of training camps in two months.
With NBA free agency all but closed, there are still a few names lingering waiting for deals, and a new batch of players to watch as the NBA season starts to take shape. Until training camps open in roughly 65 days, here are some of the situations we’ll be watching:
The Washington Wizards have finally wrapped up their summer-long search process for new leadership, landing on Tommy Sheppard as their new full-time general manager. After flirting publicly with Denver’s Tim Connelly, and privately with several other candidates, Sheppard won out. His first order of business is convincing Wizards’ All-Star Bradley Beal to stay on board long enough for them to build around him.
Sheppard has been very transparent that the team will offer Beal the maximum contract extension possible on July 26th — not only hoping he’ll sign it but also showing him their convictions to remold the next iteration of the team with the sharpshooter as the centerpiece.
Beal has two fully guaranteed years and some $55.7 million left on his current deal and is eligible to tack on three more years later this week.
While it is likely Beal will turn down what’s expected to be a three-year $111 million extension offer, the Wizards feel like the respect shown in making the offer at the earliest possible moment will illustrate to Beal how much the team values him.
Unfortunately for the Wizards, the way the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement works, it is in Beal’s best financial interests to wait out next season as he can earn substantially more money if he picks up where he left off last season as an All-NBA level guard. Earning an All-NBA nod next season could trigger eligibility for a Supermax extension next summer that could push him towards a $167 million deal over five years.
Turning down the offer will open the trade rumor flood gates on Beal, and that’s not lost on the Wizards. Teams that have tried to engage Sheppard and company on Beal deals have been turned away abruptly, and Sheppard has already started telling people publicly and privately that even if Beal turns down the extension offer, the Wizards will be staying the course with Beal.
While time will tell how committed Beal really is to a rebuilding situation in Washington, for now, it seems that, with or without an extension, the Wizards plan to keep building around Beal.
That could change if he asks out, but even if he stays silent on the subject, that’s not going to stop the speculation train from picking up steam if he does as expected and passes on the extension offer.
As teams started missing out on All-Star level free agents this summer, Cleveland Cavaliers’ forward Kevin Love’s name started to pop up in trade rumors. Most of the trade talk was speculation according to sources near the Cavaliers, who said there were never any real discussions on moving Love and his remaining four years and $120.4 million.
While interest in acquiring Love is lukewarm, to say the least, there is a belief that Love is obtainable from Cleveland, who have looked at moving most of their veteran players as they start to focus in on building around their youth.
Love, who will turn 31 in September, might be the most obtainable All-Star level guy in the NBA and does have a lot owed on his deal — but it is a contract that plateaus in value next season and then declines during the final year.
As of now, it seems unlikely that anything involving Love happens before training camp. Still, there is a sense in NBA circles that as the season progresses and the balance of power takes shape, Love could be a name on the move around the trade deadline; especially with so much perceived parity in both conferences after the most chaotic offseason the league has seen in years.
The Chicago Bulls were pretty active after Summer League wrapped trying to make deals to round out their roster. One name that continued to surface in trade talks was Bulls’ guard Kris Dunn. The belief in NBA circles is that the Bulls are looking to move on from Dunn and that the asking price is fairly low.
Dunn’s time in Chicago has been hot-and-cold, to say the least. He had a breakout redemption year after being traded to the Bulls as part of the Jimmy Butler trade in 2017 — but since then, Dunn has been up and down and has developed a spotty reputation inside the organization.
With the Bulls landing Coby White in the draft and having so much invested in Zach LaVine, the belief is the Bulls are seriously looking at moving on from Dunn.
In terms of easy-to-obtain guard options, Dunn seems like the most plausible starting level young guy, and it might not take much more than a protected draft pick to get it done if the asking price rumors are genuinely true.
Rockets’ guard Iman Shumpert is still unsigned, although it seems he may stay in Houston on a one-year deal if something else doesn’t surface. The Rockets had approached Shumpert’s camp about his willingness to be included in a sign and trade deal before they obtained Russell Westbrook, and there is still talk that Shumpert could be used to bring in another high-level player.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement requires any sign and trade deal to be three years in length, but only the first season must be guaranteed. This means that the Rockets could leverage Shumpert’s Bird Rights to balloon up his first-year salary to add a significant piece to the roster.
Among the remaining unsigned free agents, Shumpert has logged the most minutes, played a solid role for the Rockets in the postseason and might be the best defender on the market.
While there isn’t much left in terms of free-agent dollars, there is still exception money out there, so the book isn’t closed yet on Shumpert’s options.
When the Oklahoma City Thunder triggered the deal to swap Russell Westbrook for Rockets’ guard Chris Paul, it was assumed the Thunder would immediately flip Paul to another team and start their rebuild around the pieces that came back. The problem is that deal never materialized.
While there has been some criticism of the Thunders’ decision to move Westbrook for what might be the ugliest contract in the NBA. Sources close to the Thunder believed that keeping their word to Westbrook was worth it. When the multi-time All-Star signed his massive extension, one of the promises made by the organization was that if Westbrook were ever unhappy, the Thunder would work with him and his agents to find a suitable situation — something they felt they did with the Houston deal.
While Paul may not be the ideal player to re-build around, the Thunder entered into the deal knowing they could not offload enough of their veteran players to be bad enough to get into the top draft pick discussion, so they opted to add Paul and aim for a playoff spot.
While making the playoffs in the Western Conference might be a stretch, the Thunder have eyes on developing their young guys with Paul as a veteran mentor. There is also hope that Paul will play himself into being more desirable in trade, especially as the three remaining years and $124 million left on his deal ages away.
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Looking For A Few Great Voices!
From time to time we have open chairs at Basketball Insiders for writers looking to gain experience, grow their brand and to be part of an aggressive up-tempo content team.
Looking For A Few Great Voices!
From time to time we have open chairs at Basketball Insiders for writers looking to gain experience, grow their brand and to be part of an aggressive up-tempo content team.
We are considering adding up to four new voices in 2019, and what we are looking for is very specific.
Here are the criteria:
– A body of professional work that reflects an understanding of the NBA and basketball.
– Must live within 30 minutes of an NBA team other than in New York & LA; we are full in those markets.
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NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – New Orleans Pelicans
Spencer Davies recaps a busy summer for the New Orleans Pelicans that turned out to be a huge success going into their first year without Anthony Davis.
With the NBA Summer League concluded and the brunt of free agency completed, the doldrums of the offseason are here. The FIBA World Cup, Drew League, BIG 3 and The Basketball Tournament and other events are currently taking over the scene until the association fires back up in late September.
Last week, Basketball Insiders started a “Grading The Offseason” series by breaking down six teams and the type of summer each has had. To kick off this next round of reviews, we’ll take a look at the brand new version of the New Orleans Pelicans.
Entering the year, the Pelicans had high hopes. While they did lose key contributors with Rajon Rondo and a rehabbing DeMarcus Cousins electing to sign elsewhere, the organization was able to bring in a motivated Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton to ease the roster hit. The core of Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic and those two seemed to be a solid group on paper.
Of course, as the season progressed, that changed. Playing the up-and-down pace that Alvin Gentry loves, the Pelicans were getting it done on the offensive end. Davis had been putting up the ridiculous numbers as usual, while Holiday was scoring and dishing with the best of them. Randle fit like a glove with his new team and was a force on the inside, as well as an improved shooter on the outside. Mirotic stretched the floor and, before getting hurt, Payton looked as comfortable as ever.
Then, chaos ensued. Shortly after the new year, Davis made his intentions clear that he wanted out of New Orleans. As the team was hovering around the postseason hunt, the turmoil caused a noticeable distraction and an awkward predicament that left many with a sour taste in their mouths. Up to the trade deadline, the rumors ran rampant regarding Davis’ desire to land with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
General manager Dell Demps refused to give in to those demands though, asking for the steepest of prices to even field a call from LA’s front office duo of Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka. The Lakers offered a majority of the franchise’s young core and a package of picks in an attempt to entice Demps, but he didn’t budge. Pelicans owner Gayle Benson reportedly wanted nothing to do with moving Davis, and she got her wish … at least for the remainder of the season.
New Orleans did trade away Nikola Mirotic and in return received Stanley Johnson and Jason Smith in a three-team deal. Still, it wasn’t enough to bolster a middling, banged-up squad. One week following the deadline, Benson fired Demps and replaced him with Danny Ferry in the interim.
Sure enough, the playoffs became an afterthought quickly. Gentry began playing guys to get a glimpse at what they could bring to the table. On the positive side, Jahlil Okafor made the most of an opportunity, as did upstart rookies Kenrich Williams and Frank Jackson.
However, finishing with a 33-49 record and facing an imminent rebuild, the Pelicans had work to do to straighten out the organization’s direction—with or without Davis.
New Orleans wasted no time in finding a mastermind to fix one of the most difficult situations in the league. Less than a week after the conclusion of the regular season, the franchise hired David Griffin as its new executive vice president of basketball operations.
Lady luck shined on the Bayou at the NBA Draft Lottery a short month after, as the Pelicans scored the No. 1 pick with only a six percent chance to do so. Griffin chose Trajan Langdon, a fast-rising front office assistant in the Brooklyn Nets system, as his general manager. Ahead of the NBA Draft, former WNBA legend Swin Cash joined the fray as vice president of basketball operations and team development.
It wasn’t long before Griffin and his team addressed the turmoil surrounding Davis. In mid-June, the Pelicans struck a blockbuster trade to send the disgruntled superstar to the Lakers as he had desired. In return, they received a king’s ransom as a part of a three-team agreement including the Washington Wizards.
After all of the re-routing was done, New Orleans had brought in Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram and the fourth pick in the draft, plus a pair of future first-round draft picks and the ability to swap another first with the Lakers in 2023.
It would’ve been foolish to believe the Pelicans were done there. The week of the draft, Griffin struck a deal with the Atlanta Hawks to offload Solomon Hill’s large contract by using the No. 4 selection acquired in the Davis trade. The No. 8, No. 17 and No. 35 picks, along with a conditional 2019 first-rounder via Cleveland, were sent to NOLA in exchange.
At the end of it all, New Orleans wound up with three highly-touted rookies: Zion Williamson, Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The franchise also took intriguing 20-year-old Brazilian prospect Marcos “Didi” Louzada Silva in the second round as a draft-and-stash.
That was one portion of a busy summer. The other was making a couple of striking moves to add experience to the locker room. Longtime sharpshooter J.J. Redick quickly came to terms on a multi-year contract with the Pelicans during free agency moratorium. Darius Miller returned on a separate multi-year deal. Italian forward Nicolo Melli decided to make the journey over from Euroleague and signed with the team for two seasons in addition.
More recently, New Orleans decided to go after Derrick Favors and were successful in doing so with another trade with the Utah Jazz. All it took to get the job done was a pair of future second-rounders that the franchise had previously acquired from Golden State. Zylan Cheatham and Josh Gray were also inked to a couple of two-way contracts.
The theme of the Pelicans’ summer has been roster turnover. With a completely revamped and re-tooled group, Griffin did yeoman’s work regarding the task he had been assigned.
PLAYERS IN: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Nicolo Melli, Darius Miller, J.J. Redick, Derrick Favors, Zion Williamson, Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Didi Louzada (draft-and-stash), Zylan Cheatham (two-way), Josh Gray (two-way)
PLAYERS OUT: Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, Solomon Hill, Cheick Diallo, Ian Clark, Stanley Johnson, Dairis Bertans, Christian Wood, Trevon Bluiett
A new era of Pelicans basketball is on tap next year. There is a palpable excitement within the franchise, as there should be. The phrase “fresh start” applies almost all around. Ball, Ingram and Hart haven’t been in the league for long, but they’ve seen enough floor time to be considered young and experienced. We’ve seen plenty of glimpses of how talented they are. Now, it’s time to see whether or not they can carry those past learnings and turn into leaders collectively.
As those three figure out how to mature in that respect, New Orleans will have the organization’s rock in charge—Jrue Holiday. Coming off what probably should have been an All-Star season, the veteran 29-year-old will be depended on as the new number one option. More importantly, he’ll be the top voice in the locker room to guide this up-and-coming contingent of youngsters. Far too long has Holiday’s consistency and improvement gone unnoticed, and you can bank on seeing a sensational year from him.
Holiday will have help from Redick and Favors, two guys with over a decade of experience in the NBA, in that leadership aspect. E’Twaun Moore is still around and an underrated contributor. They’ll have quite the cast of first-year talent as well, namely that guy Zion who everybody is frothing at the mouth to see play—and no, one short stint at summer league was not nearly enough.
Hayes and Alexander-Walker displayed instant chemistry in Las Vegas, and they could make up a significant piece of an exciting second unit. Granted, Hayes will likely be developed slowly behind Okafor and Favors, so we might not see too much of the promising big man in year one.
With the kind of roster this team has, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Pelicans make an immediate return to the postseason. Yes, there’s a heck of a lot of competition in the Western Conference, but they’ve reset the temperature in that building. There is confidence that a weight has been lifted off their shoulders.
New Orleans is going to come out of the gate fast and furious, sticking to Gentry’s style of play. Living in transition and embracing ball movement, it’s going to be a blast to watch this particular group—a mixed bags with loads of potential, plus proven talent—mesh over the course of its first season without Davis.
As difficult as losing a franchise player is, this is by no means your typical rebuild.
It’s a reload.