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NBA Daily: Most Improved Watch — 11/9/2019

The season is still young, but a number of players have already shown that they are significantly improved from a year ago. Quinn Davis analyzes five players that have stood out among the rest in the early race for Most Improved.

Quinn Davis

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It may be just a few weeks into the season, but a myriad of storylines have already made their social media and television rounds, chief among them players that seem to have taken a leap on the court and are emerging as game-changers or even potential stars.

Many of these spots could be taken by younger players — whether they surprise breakouts or guys that were just expected to improve as they take that next step in their respective careers. That said, they aren’t the only players that will take their game to the next level this season. Case-and-point, don’t always expect to see the same names here.

That said, here are five players who have jumped into the Most Improved Player race to start the season.

Honorable Mention: Luka Doncic, Wendell Carter Jr., Luke Kennard, Lonzo Ball, Aron Baynes, OG Anunoby, Donovan Mitchell, DeAndre Bembry

5. Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac was expected to take a leap by many in 2019-20. And, thus far, the third-year forward has done little other than impress.

Isaac has taken strides in his offensive efficiency; he’s bumped his effective field goal percentage to 52 percent as he’s knocked down 37 percent of his three-point field goals and shot 53 percent from the midrange, per Cleaning the Glass.

Isaac has also boosted his assist percentage to the middle of the forward pack, per Cleaning the Glass, up from near the bottom of the position last season.

His improvements aren’t limited to the offensive end, however; while those are nice, Isaac’s true candidacy may come from his play on the defensive end. Thus far, Isaac has averaged three blocks per game, tied with Anthony Davis for the most in the NBA.

Meanwhile, Isaac’s versatility has also been on full display. Not only does the forward have the size and length to battle other bigs on the block, but the foot speed to stick with smaller wings on the perimeter.

Issac’s elastic arms have made him in a menace in the passing lanes.

If he can continue to make a major impact on the defensive end, and keep up the offensive proficiency, Isaac should garner some major consideration for Most Improved come award season.

4. Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

I know what you’re thinking: yes, Pascal Siakam has already taken home some Most Improved hardware.

And, yes, it would be unprecedented for Siakam to take home the award two years in a row; since the award’s first year, the 1985-86 season, no player has won it twice, let alone in back-to-back seasons.

That said, Siakam has been that good to start the 2019-20 regular season as he has led the Toronto Raptors to their 6-2 start.

With Kawhi Leonard gone, Siakam’s usage percentage season has jumped nearly 10 percent. While the uptick may have been expected, what’s impressive is that Siakam has maintained efficient numbers despite the extra, star-level touches every game.

Siakam’s three-point percentage, at the time of this writing, sits at 41.3 percent, up from 36.9 percent last season and on 5.8 attempts per game, up from 2.7. Also, unlike last season, Siakam has been deadly from around the arc rather than just in the corners; Siakam has drilled 44 percent of his non-corner threes, per Cleaning the Glass.

Per NBA.com, Siakam has hit on 36.4 percent of his pull-up threes, up from a measly 12.5 percent last year, also on significantly more attempts.

Something Siakam was unable to do last season was make defenders pay when they went underneath screens in the pick-and-roll. But, this season, it’s been a complete reversal, as he has attacked in these scenarios, launching threes and making defenders pay for not respecting his shot.

Siakam has averaged 27.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists through eight games. He’s the best player, on offense and defense, on a strong Eastern Conference contender. The Raptors, when Siakam has been on the court, have outscored opponents by 13.1 points per 100 possessions while they have been outscored by 10.4 points per 100 possessions when he sits, per Cleaning the Glass.

And, if all that doesn’t at least put him in the conversation for Most Improved, the NBA might as well get rid of the award.

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should fall squarely in the “De’Aaron Fox” category of the second-year player that has exploded onto the scene.

The disparity in his counting stats almost immediately make his case. Last season, the Kentucky product averaged 10.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while he shot 36.7 percent from deep and 47.6 percent from the floor. In 2019-20? Gilgeous-Alexander has posted 22 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists through eight contests.

The sophomore also bumped his shooting numbers to 40 percent from behind the arc and 48.5 percent from the floor.

It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player for the Oklahoma City Thunder thus far. With his length and solid instincts, he has proven a solid defender, while he has also led the team in scoring, ranked second in offensive rating (109.8) and fifth in net rating (4.2).

Gilgeous-Alexander’s best weapon is his right-handed running layup. He can use his length to skirt to the rim, extend and toss a layup off of the top of the backboard. Here, the guard breaks out to get the bucket over the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s assist rate is down from last season, but much of that can be attributed to the presence of Chris Paul and more time for Gilgeous-Alexander without the ball. Likewise, some of his increased production could prove due to the small sample size of the early season.

But, early on, his confidence and impressive play in a significantly larger role have given Gilgeous-Alexander the look like a star-in-the-making. That said, the opportunity to make an impact, and, more importantly, the touches, should be there for him; if he can maintain his current level of play, he should be in the thick of the award race come April.

2. Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers

After he expertly filled a secondary role in Milwaukee last season, Brogdon jumped ship to the Indiana Pacers and earned a leading role for his trouble.

And, through the first three weeks, the former Rookie of the Year has made the four-year, $85 million deal he signed looked like a bargain. In the Pacers’ nine games thus far in 2019-20, Brogdon, as their offensive fulcrum, has averaged 21 points, 5.1 rebounds and 9 assists per game, all improved from a season ago.

With the uptick in usage, Brogdon has seen a dip in his efficiency: his 45.8 and 31 percent shooting from the floor and three, respectively, are both down from last season (50.5, 42.6). However, that drop is due, at least in part, to an early-season slump, and should regress closer to Brogdon’s career averages (48.2, 40.5) as the season goes on.

Brogdon’s passing has been crucial to the Pacers, as he ranks third in the NBA in assists behind only Lebron James and Luka Doncic. When Brogdon’s on the floor, the Pacers’ offense is also nine points better per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

Brogdon’s game isn’t particularly flashy. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as he plays at his own pace and, more often than not, makes the right play. Despite an increased usage rate, Brogdon’s turnover percentage has remained low.

Here, running the pick-and-roll with Myles Turner, Brogdon doesn’t press. Instead, he takes what the defense gives him and makes his way into the paint. Then, holding DeAndre Jordan in his path, Brogdon fakes the layup before whipping a pinpoint pass to a wide-open Domantas Sabonis in the corner.

That’s a sub-par defensive effort by Jordan, but taking advantage of poor defense is a necessary trait for a starting point guard.

Brogdon isn’t Stephen Curry or Kyrie Irving; he doesn’t particularly stand out on any given play. That said, should he continue to prove himself one of the league’s best assist-men, voters would be hard-pressed to pass on him once his shooting percentages climb back to normal levels.

1. Devonte’ Graham, Charlotte Hornets

The best candidates for Most Improved are often the surprise ones. And Devonte’ Graham, a second-round pick in 2018, has been one of the biggest surprises in the season’s early going.

Behind Terry Rozier, Graham has solidified himself as the Charlotte Hornets’ top backup guard and first player off the bench. Through eight games, Graham has averaged 17 points, 7 assists and 3.9 rebounds in 31 minutes per game, a far cry from the 5 points and 3 assists he managed in 46 appearances last season.

Graham’s three-point shooting has proven his most effective weapon. 52 percent of his total shot attempts have come from deep, per Cleaning the Glass. Meanwhile, the sophomore guard has knocked down 41.8 percent of those shots.

Graham has punished defenders that would dare give him space with a deadly pull-up jumper. These shots haven’t exactly been easy, either; per NBA.com, the majority of his three-point attempts are pull-ups and he is converting on an otherworldy 50 percent of those attempts.

Graham often sprints down the court in semi-transition, hoping his opponent backs off a tad to prevent a drive. That one step has proven all he’s needed, as he launches without hesitation at the first sign of daylight.

Of course, it would seem as if this could prove unsustainable for Graham. For reference, in his record-breaking 2015-16 MVP season, Curry hit on just 44 percent of those same shots.

That said, even if he comes back to earth, Graham has improved across the board. He has increased his shooting fouls drawn rate to 12.5 percent, up from 7.3 percent last season, per Cleaning the Glass. Meanwhile, Graham’s assist percentage has jumped by nearly 10 percent.

Beyond that, his impact for Charlotte has been easy to see. When Graham’s on the floor, the Hornets have operated at a near-even net rating. But, when he hits the bench, that number plummets to -20.3, per Cleaning the Glass.

Right now, Graham should be considered the leader in award race. And, while it’s still early, his gargantuan leap has been fun to watch; should he maintain any semblance of it throughout the season, Graham could prove a runaway winner.

There is a lot of basketball left to play but, thus far, these five have stood out from the crowd of Most Improved candidates.  The NBA season is a long one, and anything — slumps, injuries, etc. — could happen. Another, relatively unknown candidate could even break onto the scene and steal the show.

And, because of that uncertainty, make sure to follow along with Basketball Insiders’ award watches as we track them throughout the season.

Quinn Davis is a contributor for Basketball Insiders. He is a former collegiate track runner who currently resides in Philadelphia.

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Reviewing the Nurkic Trade: Denver’s Perspective

The Denver Nuggets have been on a miraculous run this postseason, but that doesn’t mean that they’re infallible. Drew Maresca reviews the 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland.

Drew Maresca

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The Denver Nuggets are fresh off of a 114-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, pulling within three wins of the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals. But what if I told you that the Nuggets’ roster could be even more talented by acting more deliberately in a trade from three years ago?

While Denver won on Tuesday night, they lost a nail bitter on Sunday – for which most of the blame has been pointed at a defensive breakdown by Nuggets’ center Mason Plumlee, who was procured in the aforementioned 2017 trade. What did it cost Denver, you ask? Just Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick.

Nurkic was a 2014-15 All-Rookie second team member. He played 139 games over 2.5 seasons in Denver, averaging 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game. He showed serious promise, but Denver had numerous reasons to pursue a trade: he’d suffered a few relatively serious injuries early in his career (and he’s continued to be injury-prone in Portland), butted heads with head coach Michael Malone and – most importantly – the Nuggets stumbled on to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets eventually attempted a twin-tower strategy with both in the starting line-up, but that experiment was short-lived — with Jokic ultimately asking to move to the team’s second unit.

The Nuggets traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers in February 2017 (along with a first-round pick) in exchange for Plumlee, a second-round pick and cash considerations. Ironically, the first-round pick included in the deal became Justin Jackson, who was used to procure another center, Zach Collins – but more on that in a bit.

As of February 2017, Plumlee was considered the better player of the two. He was averaging a career-high 11 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists through 54 games – but it was clear that at 27, he’d already maximized his talent.

Conversely, Nurkic was only 23 at the time of the trade with significant, untapped upside. In his first few seasons with Portland, Nurkic averaged 15 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while establishing himself as a rising star. As noted above, injuries have continued to be a problem. Nurkic suffered a compound fracture in his tibia and fibula in March 2019, forcing him to miss a majority of this current campaign. The COVID-19-related play stoppage in March gave Nurkic extra time to get his body right, and he returned to action in July inside the bubble.

And he did so with a vengeance. Nurkic demonstrated superior strength and footwork, and he flashed the dominance that Portland hoped he would develop, posting eight double-doubles in 18 contests. He averaged 17.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game and while his play dipped a bit in the playoffs – partially due to a matchup with first-team All-NBA star Anthony Davis – he still managed 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds in the five-game series. So it’s fair to say that Nurkic is still on his way toward stardom.

But the Nuggets are in the conference finals – so all’s well that ends well, right? Not so fast. To his credit, Plumlee is exactly who Denver expected him to be. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in three seasons with Denver since 2017 – but to be fair, Plumlee is asked to do less in Denver than he had in Portland. Still, it’s fairly obvious that they’re just not that comparable.

Plumlee is a good passer and an above-average defender that’ll compete hard and isn’t afraid to get dirty – but he has limitations. He doesn’t stretch the floor and he is a sub-par free throw shooter (53.5 percent in 2019-20). More importantly, he’s simply not a major offensive threat and his repertoire of moves is limited.

High-level takeaway: Defenses tend to game plan for opponents they view as major threats – Nurkic falls into this category. Other guys pack the stat sheet through putback attempts, open looks and single coverage alongside the guys for whom opposing defenses game plan – that’s a more appropriate description of Plumlee.

On to the wrench thrown in by Zach Collins’ involvement. Statistically, Collins is about as effective as Plumlee – he averaged 7 points and 6.3 rebounds through only 11 games in 2019-20 due to various injuries – and he possesses more upside. The 22-year-old is not as reliable as Plumlee but given his age and skill set, he’s a far better option as a support player playing off the bench. He stretches the floor (36.8 percent on three-point attempts in 2019-20), is an above-average free throw shooter (75 percent this season) and is a good defender. Looking past Nurkic for a moment, would the Nuggets prefer a 22-year-old center that stretches the floor and defends or a 30-year-old energy guy?

Regardless of your answer to that question, it’s hard to argue that Nurkic should have returned more than Plumlee, definitely so when you factor in the first-round pick Denver included. There is obviously more at play: Denver was probably considering trading Nurkic for some time before they acted – did they feel that they could increase his trade value prior to the trade deadline in 2016-17? Maybe. Further, Nurkic and his agent could have influenced the Nuggets’ decision at the 2017 deadline, threatening to stonewall Denver in negotiations.

Had Nurkic been more patient or the Nuggets acted sooner before it became abundantly clear that he was on the move, Denver’s roster could be even more stacked than it is now. Ultimately, the Nuggets have a plethora of talent and will be fine – while it appears that Nurkic found a long-term home in Portland, where he owns the paint offensively. Denver can’t be thrilled about assisting a division rival, but they’re still in an enviable position today and should be for years to come.

But despite that, this deal should go down as a cautionary tale – it’s not only the bottom feeders of the league who make missteps. Even the savviest of front offices overthink deals. Sometimes that works in their favor, and other times it does not.

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NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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