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NBA Daily: MVP Watch — 11/5/2019

Despite being just two weeks into the season, the MVP race has already started to heat up. David Weissman examines some of the early candidates that have thrown their hat into the ring for the award.

David Weissman

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For most teams, the 2019-20 NBA regular season is but six or seven games old. That said, it’s never too early for a player to put their name in the ring for some end-of-the-season, non-championship hardware.

In fact, the race to Most Valuable Player has already seemed to have established itself.

Giannis Antetokounmpo started the season as the favorite at +300 odds and maintains that position with +250 odds coming from Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Stephen Curry started the season in a close second with +600 odds to win but has seen his odds for the award plummet in the past week after sustaining a hand injury that will force him to be out for at least 3 months. Despite the season being fairly young, there has been a lot of movement in the race for the regular-season award, including the rise of Paskal Siakam, now in the MVP conversation with Las Vegas odds of +5000.

Front Runners:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+250)

Notwithstanding the Milwaukee Bucks’ slow start, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s dominant play has kept him in the conversation to repeat as MVP this season.

Already averaging a career-high in assists (7.4) and rebounds (14) per game, Antetokounmpo is now shooting three-pointers more consistently. In his first game against the Raptors since their Game 6 loss last postseason, Antetokounmpo played his best game of the year. Antetokounmpo dropped 36 points and had 15 rebounds in the 115-105 Milwaukee win, saying he was “motivated” by the match up after they fell to the eventual NBA champions.

Antetokounmpo can impact the game on either side of the court, which swayed many voters to pick him over James Harden, who averaged a league-best 30.7 points per game, last season. He has shown continued commitment to defense by averaging 1.8 blocks per game, which is a trait that only two other MVP candidates can hang their hat on: Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis.

Of course, Antetokounmpo wants to be the first back-to-back MVP since Curry back in 2015-2016; who wouldn’t? Well, the continued development of his offensive game coupled with his dominant defensive play should make Antetokounmpo a strong candidate to accomplish that feat.

James Harden (+350)

James Harden, at 36.6 points per contest, has unsurprisingly led the league in scoring.

Meanwhile, as last season’s MVP, Antetokounmpo, isn’t even on the top-10 scoring leader board.

Harden is the outright isolation possession leader through seven games at 15 isolation plays per game, but he has coupled that with a three-point percentage of just 25.3 percent. At first glance, his polarizing offensive style requires him to dominate the ball and comes at the expense of integrating new teammate Russell Westbrook, though, who, despite Harden’s dominant playstyle, has posted several impressive box scores.

Harden has also capitalized the most out of any other player in those iso-situations, scoring 12 points per game in isolation. The usage rate leader of last season, Harden is one of the few players to rank above Anthony Davis in the category at 38.2 percent.

Harden’s start to this season has been very rocky, as he hit just 10 of his first 42 field goal attempts. However, he has been vintage Harden since; Harden put up 40 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder and racked up 59 in an epic duel with Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards. The main question will be if Harden can shore up the inconsistencies he dealt with to start the year, and whether his play will help the Rockets be successful during the regular season.

Anthony Davis (+600)

Anthony Davis has averaged 28.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists through his first six games of the 2019-2020 season. That’s 3 points and 1 rebound per game more than the reigning MVP, Antetokounmpo. His three blocks per game lead the NBA and he’s been excellent at the free-throw line, converting 88.3 percent of his attempts and missing just once from the stripe in his last three games.

Davis’s season has been headlined by a performance that included 40 points, 20 rebounds in 3 quarters against the Memphis Grizzlies, planting him firmly at the forefront of the early-season MVP discussion. The 26-year-old is already a 6-time All-Star and playing alongside LeBron James has helped him improve on both ends of the floor, without the added pressure of carrying the whole of his team’s burden.

With Davis having established himself as a primary scoring option and defensive leader for Los Angeles, the Lakers have started strong with a 5-1 record. He has led the Lakers to a winning streak of five games after dropping their regular-season opener 112-102 to the Los Angeles Clippers. If the Lakers end the season as one of the top teams in a competitive Western Conference, and Davis is the primary reason for that success, look for him to be a top candidate to win the MVP award.

Outside Looking In:

Kawhi Leonard (+800) –

After leaving Toronto this summer, Leonard realized that he needed to focus on improving his passing ability in order to become more of a well-rounded player. Even though the Clippers have a deep bench with solid role players that can defend, they do not have a point guard that can manage the game as Toronto had with Kyle Lowery.

In response to this, Leonard has taken over the offense for the Clippers. He has doubled his assists from last year, going from 3.3 to 5.7 assists per game. Leonard, despite that extra offensive burden, has maintained his exceptional scoring efficiency as well; against another former team, the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard dropped 38 points, 12 rebounds while he shot 48 percent from the field.

Leonard has claimed to be the healthiest he has been in the past two seasons, after sustaining a serious quad injury in San Antonio that cost him an entire season and led to his eventual title run in Toronto. But, despite claiming to be in great health, Leonard will still lose games to “load management” and has already missed one game to start the season. It remains to be seen how often Leonard will be sidelined, but frequent absences certainly won’t help the 28-year-old superstar win any award, save for the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Lebron James (+1000)

Whatever you do, please do not tell LeBron James that he’s 34 years old. Nor that he’s in year 17 of his career.

Many suggested during the off-season that James was “washed” or “over the hill.” But, after back-to-back triple-doubles against the Spurs and Dallas Mavericks, James has silenced many of his critics. Of course, so far along in his career, it natural for questions to arise after last year’s groin injuries.

But, unfortunately for those critics, a 34-year old James posted an incredible 39 point, 16 assist, 12 rebound performance against a young Mavericks squad.

Of course, we’re only 6 games into the Lakers season, but, after his first offseason actually off for the first time in more than a decade, James has looked revitalized. With averages of 25.5 points, 11.2 assists, and 8 rebounds per game, proving that he is still the same, dominant James when it comes to his on-court ability.

The real question will be how James progresses through the season and whether he can continue his current level of play. He will certainly take games off during the regular season to ‘load manage,’ ala Leonard, which could hurt him in the award race. But, if he can sustain his play (and play enough), he could certainly prove another strong candidate for MVP.

Dark Horse:

Pascal Siakam (+5000) Siakam, who signed a four-year, $130 million extension with the Raptors last month, has averaged 26 points and 8.5 rebounds through six games. Given this early impact, Siakam is one of the biggest early risers. His odds have shot up to 40-1 from initial longshots odds listed at 100-1. Through his leadership, the Toronto Raptors have picked up right where they left off last season as one of the hardest-playing teams in the league starting the season with a 4-2 record.

Siakam has progressed in almost every game. But, during the Raptors’ latest loss to the Bucks, he floundered against Antetokounmpo due to foul trouble, something that has proven an issue having already fouled out of two games and having five fouls in two of Toronto’s other six. Regardless of the foul woes, Siakam ranks 12th in the NBA in scoring with 26.0 points per game, a significant improvement from his average last season of 16.9.

Without Leonard, many cast the Raptors out of the Eastern Conference elite. But, if the Raptors end up with one of the best records by the end of the season, it’ll be because of Siakam’s play and his leadership, both of which could prove a boon to his MVP chances.

Of course, take note of the small sample size qualifier; given more time, these rankings are subject to change over the course of the season. That said, these six have stood out from the crowd, and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Make sure to stay tuned for the rest of the Basketball Insiders award watches, and keep on the lookout for future updates throughout the season.

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NBA Daily: Deadline Dilemma In Toronto

After winning the 2019 NBA Championship and losing Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors have defied the odds, winning 30 of their first 44 games this season — but Drew Maresca argues that conceding this season in hopes of building an even stronger future roster is the smarter long-term move.

Drew Maresca

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The Raptors have overachieved in a ridiculous way in 2019-20. They were +700 to repeat as NBA champions prior to the 2019 free agency period, according to the Draft Kings.

Immediately after Kawhi Leonard fled West, the Raptors’ odds grew to +2200 to repeat – tied with the Celtics, who just lost Kyrie Irving, and the Nets, whose best player was set to miss the entire year. And yet through 44 games, the Raptors are third in the Eastern Conference with a 31-14 record and only one-and-a-half games behind last year’s pace (32-12).

But what’s in a record? There’s more to unpack than just wins and losses, especially when success has almost certainly been redefined in a city that just experienced its first NBA championship ever. So a logical test is how well you’re playing against the crème de la crème. And in that regard, the Raptors haven’t fared too well. Including their home win against Philadelphia on Wednesday night, the Raptors are still only 7-12 against winning teams with a net rating of minus-37 in those 19 games.

Very few teams would be terribly upset to be in a similar situation as the Raptors. In fact, most teams would be thrilled to be third overall in their conference. But the Raptors are barreling toward an interesting decision: embrace the opportunity to continue to gain playoff experience (and additional playoff revenue) or expedite a miniature rebuild. This writer’s thoughts on the matter are well documented in our 2019-20 Toronto Raptors Season Preview and our recent Atlantic Division – buyers or sellers piece. But let’s officially build a case supporting the Raptors trading some of their veterans in an attempt to add assets prior to the Feb. 6 trade deadline.

The Raptors’ most valuable trade chip is also their longest-tenured player – starting point guard, Kyle Lowry. Lowry is 33 years old and experiencing a career resurgence after taking a back seat to Leonard last year. Lowry is averaging a near career-high 37.1 minutes per game, in which time he’s scoring 20 points per game – more than he’s scored since 2016-17 — and dishing out 7.5 assists.

But Lowry is probably the last guy the team wants to move. He’s a fan favorite and has been with the team for eight consecutive seasons; Lowry is currently third overall for games played in franchise history. But if they chose to dangle Lowry on the trade market, they would certainly get a good amount of interest from teams like the Lakers, HEAT, 76ers and maybe even the Jazz and Nuggets. What interested parties would offer is an entirely different story, but it would have to be pretty aggressive to get the Raptors to part with their franchise player.

But there are other guys who make more sense in a trade.

There’s Marc Gasol, their soon-to-be 35-year-old center. Unlike Lowry, Gasol is not experiencing a career renaissance. He’s missed 12 of their 44 games, with down years in scoring (7.8 points per game compared to his 14.7 career average), two-point shooting (44% compared to his from 49.7% career average) and rebounds (6.4 rebounds compared to his 7.6. career average). But he still has a good amount of utility in him. After all, he leads the Raptors in defensive plus/minus, per Basketball Reference – something that he’s prided himself on throughout his career and an attribute that would be a welcomed addition to most contenders.

There’s also Serge Ibaka, their 30-year-old sometimes-starting, sometimes-backup big man. Ibaka is actually outpacing career averages in scoring (14.9), rebounds (8.4) and assists (1.3). Ibaka is still widely viewed as an above-average and versatile defender, and the fact that he’s shooting 37% on three-pointers makes him all the more valuable to teams like the Boston Celtics – who lack a true big man who can stretch the floor.

Gasol and Ibaka’s standing in Toronto is especially vulnerable since both will enter free agency this summer — whereas Lowry signed an extension last year that runs through 2020-21, when he’ll make $30.5 million. The Raptors could choose to keep Gasol and/or Ibaka, but either or both could walk without returning any assets as soon as this July. Further, the team is unlikely to break the bank for either considering they’ll have to make a generous offer to retain soon-to-be free agent guard Fred VanVleet – who is having a breakout season, averaging 18.7 points and 6.7 assists per game while shooting 38.8% on a career-high 6.9 three-point attempts per game. VanVleet is only 25 years old and fits alongside Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and the team’s young role players like Norman Powell far better than Ibaka or Gasol.

As it stands, the Raptors have about $85 million in salary commitments for 2020-21 with $3.8 million in a player option (Stanley Johnson) and another $1.5 million in a team option (Terence Davis). The cap is projected at $116 million with the luxury tax kicking in at $141 million. They can (and should) invest between $20 and $25 million per year in VanVleet, which brings them up to about $110 million. If negotiations begin creeping north of $25 million per year, the Raptors will have to make concessions elsewhere if they hope to retain VanVleet – Ibaka would theoretically be among those concessions since he’ll probably be looking for at least one more generous payday. It’s unclear what Gasol would seek in a new contract.

All three of the aforementioned Raptors have at least one thing in common – they are the only three Raptors born before 1990. So whether they like it or not, the Raptors have turned their roster over quickly and effectively to the extent that they have a talented young core with the framework of a contender in the making.

All three veteran players can definitely continue contributing for at least the remainder of this season – and to varying degrees, well beyond it. But their impact will be more profound on a contender looking to add quality veterans. And despite what their record tells us, that’s just not the Raptors right now.

Instead, the Raptors are a team in the very fortunate position of being able to reload relatively quickly around a blossoming young core. Yes, they’re significantly better than average, but which would you prefer: a team that qualifies for the conference semifinals in 2019-20 or a team that loses in the first round of the 2019-20 playoffs, but adds additional assets — some of whom help the team remain competitive for years to come?

Granted, dislodging Lowry from Toronto requires a monster offer and would result in at least some backlash; but neglecting to trade Gasol and/or Ibaka is likely to result in one or both leaving to pursue more money and/or additional championships – neither of which can the Raptors offer. The Raptors and team president Masai Ujiri have made bold moves time and again. There is no reason to hold off on moving either Gasol and/or Ibaka before Feb. 6 – and if a sweetheart offer comes in for Lowry, then him, too.

Regardless, the Raptors are fairly well set up for the future, so it is unlikely that this move (or lack of it) is analyzed too aggressively in the future. And also, there is certainly a fine line between being opportunist and greedy. But trading one, both or all veterans allows the team to add additional assets to a cupboard that already looks pretty well stocked.

And it’s probably one of the final opportunities to add talent before their core takes its final form — and if that form results in future championships is partially dependent on how the Raptors proceed before the 2020 trade deadline.

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NBA Daily: Raptors’ Thomas Patiently Perseveres

It took a tight family, two years in Spain and a broken finger, but Matt Thomas’ chance to showcase his shooting on the biggest stage might be finally just around the corner.

Douglas Farmer

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Matt Thomas’ long-awaited break was disrupted by a more literal break. After the shooting guard spent two years impressing in the Liga ACB in Spain, Thomas’ first season with the Toronto Raptors was supposed to be his chance to prove himself NBA-ready.

And as the Raptors suffered injury after injury in November, that chance looked like it could grow into a full-blown role, if only on a temporary basis.

“He’s shown he can play at this level, where we can come out there and run stuff for him and he can do work,” Toronto head coach Nick Nurse said. “He’s a really good team defender; he’s much better defensively than maybe people give him credit for.”

Instead, Thomas joined the walking wounded with a broken finger, the first injury to force him to miss extended time in his professional career.

“Anytime you’re injured, it’s hard,” Thomas said. “As a competitor, I want to be on the court, especially we had so many injuries. There was a big opportunity on the table for a first-year guy like myself.”

Thomas had hit 14-of-26 threes at that point, 53.8 percent, already arguably the best shooter on the Raptors’ roster, albeit in limited minutes. The Iowa State product was making the most of his break until his break.

He had waited for it since finishing his four-year career in Ames and Thomas seemed on the verge of reaching the NBA right away in 2017. He spent that Summer League with the Los Angeles Lakers, knowing the Raptors were keeping a close eye. In time, though, Valencia beckoned, a tough decision for someone exceptionally close with his family. Up until that point, the closeness had been as literal as figurative, with Iowa State a four-hour drive from Thomas’ hometown of Onalaska, Wisconsin.

“I wanted to spread my wings and get out of my comfort zone a little bit,” Thomas said of his two years in Spain where he averaged 13.3 points and shot 47.2 percent from deep. “The distance is tough. The time change is the other thing. It’s a 7-to-8 hour time difference, so you really have to coordinate when you’re going to talk to people.”

That was frustrating for a brother intent on keeping up on his sister’s college career, now a senior at the University of Dubuque. Moreover, it was an even bigger change for a family that had been tight-knit since Thomas lost his father in fifth grade.

Thomas’s mother, brother and sister did manage to visit him in Spain, but watching games stateside is obviously much easier. At least, in theory. When the Midwestern winter dumped five inches of snow on the highways between the Target Center and his hometown about 2.5 hours away, that recent trek to see him became that much tougher.

Nonetheless, about four dozen Thomas supporters filled a section above the Raptors’ bench. They were most noticeable when Nurse subbed in the sharpshooter with just a minute left in the first half.

“It’s special because I have a really good support system,” Thomas said. “I’ve had that my entire life . . . It’s just really special to have so many people make the trip, especially given the weather conditions. I was talking to one of my cousins from Iowa; he was driving 30 on the highway. He got here in six hours, it would normally take maybe three.”

If anyone could understand that Midwestern stubbornness, it would be Nurse, himself from just four hours south of the Twin Cities. When asked why his fan club was not as vocal as Thomas’, Nurse joked his was stuck “in a snowdrift somewhere in Carroll County, Iowa.”

It might not have been a joke.

Nurse did not insert Thomas just to appease his loyal cheering section. The end of half situation called for a shooter — he had gone 7-of-18 in his four games after returning from the broken finger. Of players averaging at least two attempts from beyond the arc per game, Thomas leads Toronto with a 46.7 percentage.

“It’s too bad that he was one of the guys out when we had everybody out because he could have logged some serious minutes,” Nurse said. “Now he gets back and everybody’s back and he kind of gets filtered in.”

That close family, that time in Spain, that broken finger and now that filtering in have all been a part of Thomas getting a chance to prove himself in the NBA.

If he has to wait a bit longer before seeing serious minutes, so be it.

The Raptors did, after all, give him a three-year contract. He has time on his side.

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Who The NBA’s Top Road Warriors?

Jordan Hicks takes a look at the teams boasting the top-five road records in the league and breaks down what makes them so good away from home.

Jordan Hicks

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Winning in the NBA is not easy by any means — but a victory on the road is almost more valuable than one at home. Maybe not as far as standings are concerned, but road wins are harder to come by in the league. Being able to get victories away from home can shoot your team up the standings faster than anything else.

Each year there are new teams that impress. Whether it’s expected franchises such as those led by LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard — superstars with historically great track records, rosters that must do so to meet lofty expectations. But there are always surprise newcomers such as the Miami HEAT or the Dallas Mavericks, too. Either way, a large chunk of those aforementioned team’s success relies heavily upon their ability to get wins on the road.

Who are the best road warriors this year? What teams are posting the highest records away from their home cities at the halfway point? Basketball Insiders takes a look at the top five teams in that realm, plus points to certain reasons they may be finding success.

No. 1: Los Angeles Lakers (19-4)

This first one should come as no surprise. For one, they are led by LeBron James. Secondly, they are co-led by Anthony Davis. Do you even need a third reason?

Listen, everyone thought the Lakers would be good. But did anyone think they’d be this dominant and click this fast? Honestly, high-five if so. But it’s not just those two that are doing all the work. Players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are thriving, Dwight Howard is having a mini-resurgence, Kyle Kuzma is playing for his roster spot and Rajon Rondo is still dishing dimes at a high rate – though not as high as King James.

LeBron is averaging 26 points, 10.9 assists and 8.4 rebounds on the road, almost a triple-double. Davis is just behind scoring-wise at 25.9 points and almost a double-double with 9.2 rebounds. Kuzma is shooting 47.2 percent from the field and scoring just over 15 a game and, most surprisingly, leading the team in plus-minus at a plus-7.1.

With multiple road-wins against the Mavericks — and one each over the Miami HEAT, the Utah Jazz, and the Denver Nuggets — what’s not to appreciate? The Lakers appear to be the clear front runner in the Western Conference and their impressive road record is a large reason why.

No. 2: Milwaukee Bucks (18-4)

On top of the road-win totem with the Lakers sits the Milwaukee Bucks. They’ve been every bit as dominating as the Lakers, which is helped, in part, to the much-weaker bottom of the Eastern Conference. But this by no means is a knock on their talent level. Just like the Lakers are the current kings of the West, the Bucks are dominating the East.

Giannis Antetokounmpo appears ready to secure his second consecutive MVP award. He’s even more dominant than he was last year and he’s finally shooting the three at a respectable clip.

While Antetokounmpo’s numbers seem to be pretty steady overall when compared to his road numbers, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton both see a bump in production when playing away from their home arena. Although the Bucks have an insanely-impressive point differential of plus-13.8 at home, it dips to just plus-11.4 when they play on the road. This is a true testament to their consistency as they travel.

The Bucks appear to lack the road-win resume that the Lakers bolster, but with solid wins against the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets, they can clearly take care of business against evenly-matched opponents.

No. 3: Dallas Mavericks (14-5)

By far and large the biggest surprise this NBA season has been the Mavericks. A few smart people probably had them penciled in as a surprise eighth-seed, but it’s almost a guarantee no one had them in as a playoff lock as early as December.

The reason they’re playing so well? Luka Doncic. He’s only half an assist away from averaging a triple-double on the road and he’s scoring more to boot. In fact, the Mavericks are averaging just 115.1 points at home compared to a whopping 118.6 on the road.

What’s even crazier is the fact that Dallas’ offensive rating while on the road not only leads the NBA — it’s over four full points greater than the Lakers at No. 2. The gap between them and second place is as big as the space between Los Angeles and the eleventh-ranked team.

The Mavericks boast quite the slate of road wins including the Nuggets, Lakers, Bucks, Rockets and Philadelphia 76ers. Yes, you read all those names right. One thing is for certain, the Mavericks will be a nightmare for whoever has to play them in the playoffs – regardless of seeding.

No. 4: Toronto Raptors (14-7)

You would think that after Kawhi Leonard’s departure that the Raptors would have slightly folded, but they’ve almost picked up right where they left off. Sure, Leonard’s absence was going to leave some sort of void, but it’s amazing just how well Toronto has fared this season.

They boast the second-best road defense with a rating of 102.7, just behind the Bucks. They also have the fourth-best net rating away from home.

The three-headed monster of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry has been as effective on the road as it has been at home. Thanks to the ever-improving play of Siakam, Toronto should comfortably find themselves with home-court advantage come playoff time. They might not have what it takes to repeat as champions, but they’re absolutely going to make life tough for whomever they end up facing.

Solid road wins against the Boston Celtics and Lakers certainly look impressive on the resume, but they’ll need to continue to improve as a unit if they want to make any noise in the playoffs.

No. 5: Denver Nuggets (13-7)

The Nuggets are having an interesting season. Gary Harris hasn’t been playing well at all, Jamal Murray hasn’t been turning heads either, but Nikola Jokic is still feasting on any opposing center thrown his way.

The biggest surprise so far? The stellar play of second-year rookie Michael Porter Jr. He’s only averaging about 15 minutes per game but, on the road, he’s scoring 8.3 points per game on 56 percent from the field and 51.6 percent from three. His NBA sample sizes aren’t quite big enough yet, but it’s becoming more and more clear just how good he’ll become.

Despite no one else on the roster improving much from last season, the Nuggets still find themselves in the upper-echelon of the Western Conference — and their stellar road play is a major reason. With solid road-wins against the Lakers, Mavericks and Indiana Pacers, the Nuggets are primed to finish the second half of the season strong. If Porter Jr. continues to improve and see expanded minutes, Denver could turn into a real threat out west.

All the teams on this list have been pretty impressive up to this point in the season, but there is still a long way to go. Will the Bucks or Lakers get dethroned as the road warriors of their respective conferences? Only time will tell.

But if one thing is certain in the NBA, road wins are no “gimmes,” regardless of opponent. The above teams all deserve their rightful spot on this midseason list. How many will remain come April?

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