We’re just about one-quarter of the way through the NBA season, and yet the fate of the Phoenix Suns has already been decided.
At 4-20 and having suffered an embarrassing blowout loss to the now-decent Sacramento Kings on Tuesday, the Suns are entering another inevitable bottom finish.
It’s not that they are off to yet another bad start. It’s that everyone who is ahead of them at the moment is in a dogfight for a playoff spot (click here for the best basketball odds available online), and are all at minimum seven games ahead of the Suns in the standings.
There may be optimists for out there for the Suns with a relentless “Never say die!” mindset, but this tweet from Marc Stein yesterday would imply that Phoenix is waving the white flag already.
The Suns' Trevor Ariza is seen by rival teams at the top of the list of players who will be made available via trade after Dec. 15, league sources say
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) December 4, 2018
A guy like Trevor Ariza would attract pretty much every team in the NBA. Though his numbers may have taken a hit – 9.9 points a game on 37 percent from the field including 35.7 percent from three – Ariza is one of the clear-cut three-and-D wings in the NBA.
$15 million is an overpay for a guy like him, but since his contract expires after this season, it’s more than affordable. The real question is, is he going to leave Phoenix by trade or by buyout?
When Ariza’s trade restriction expires, it will make for a fascinating race to see who gets Ariza, and how. Though the Suns appear to want to trade Ariza for some value, interested suitors seem to want a different outcome.
Ariza is on a one-year, $15 million deal with Phoenix. Interested teams have been hoping the Suns would just buy Ariza out like they did with Tyson Chandler, but they are expected to pursue trades to try to get at least one asset in return
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) December 4, 2018
Once Dec. 15 arrives, it’ll be intriguing to see who is willing to part with what to get about three-fourths of a rental of the 17-year swingman, and, if that doesn’t happen, it’ll be even more curious to see where Ariza decides to go if he winds up on the buyout market.
First, let’s start with the teams that could make a realistic trade for Ariza.
The Jimmy Butler trade has so far proven to be a success in Philly, as the team has gone 9-2 since he joined the team, making them 17-8 on the year.
While their three-point shooting has been quite well (they’ve shot 37.9 percent from distance since the deal), their defense has slipped. It rates 12th in the league with a 106.9 defensive rating. That’s above average, but Philly’s defense was rated fourth last year at 105. Their top competitors – Toronto, Milwaukee, Boston – all have top-notch talent on the wing, so they will need as much defensive help as they can get around the perimeter.
At 33, Ariza’s not the shutdown defender that Robert Covington is, but he still has enough juice left that he can be of service to Philly. Getting him would give the Sixers’ fantastic depth on the wing.
Philadelphia can offer Phoenix expiring contracts like Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala, but the one asset they have that would knock Phoenix’s socks off would be Markelle Fultz. Fultz doesn’t fit in Philly’s timeline, but he would in Phoenix. The Suns are in the rebuilding phase and they need a point guard, so trading Ariza for him would be perfect for both sides.
Since Fultz is getting paid $8+ million, matching him along with other salaries with Ariza would be a sinch.
Los Angeles Lakers
Thanks to Tyson Chandler, the Lakers have really picked it up defensively in the past month, but their outside shooting is subpar at the moment. The need for Ariza stems primarily from their need for more three-point shooting.
The Lakers currently rank 20th in the NBA in three-point shooting, which has probably played a role in them being tied for the 15th highest rated offense in the league at 108 points per 100 possessions. Their best shooters from deep are Rajon Rondo (43 percent), Josh Hart (39.6 percent), LeBron James (36.6 percent) and Lance Stephenson of all people (36.7 percent). Everyone else in their rotation who regularly shoots from deep doesn’t shoot any better than 32 percent.
Both LeBron and Rondo thrive playing with guys who can spot up around the perimeter because of their elite playmaking abilities. Considering Ariza played with James Harden and Chris Paul last year, it’d be safe to assume that he would easily fit next to those two.
The Lakers aren’t trading any of their top young talents for Ariza, but Ivica Zubac could be in the mix. What the Lakers have to offer are plenty of one-year deals to trade: Stephenson, Michael Beasley and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When Rondo returns, somebody’s minutes are going down. That somebody could be used in a trade for Ariza.
There’s no doubt that the Lakers are talented, but what steadied the team was a veteran presence who knew his role like Chandler. Getting another one like Ariza, who has championship experience as a Laker, could take them even further.
As odd as it sounds, acquiring a grizzled veteran might actually be the right move for the Kings right now. Sacramento currently has a winning product, as it is in the thick of a very intense playoff race with an impressive record – for them – at 12-11.
They’re on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Lakers. They are actually the best three-point shooting team in the league right now, as their three-point percentage is 38.8 led by Buddy Hield and Nemanja Bjelica. What they would need Ariza for is defense.
Sactown currently has the 20th-rated defense in the league. That isn’t terrible, but with how things are going with the Kings, improving their defensive personnel is a must since they’ve proven so far that they have what it takes to compete. Getting a player like Ariza could take them even further.
Troy Williams and Justin Jackson haven’t done a bad job as the backup wings, but Ariza brings experience that this team needs. The Kings’ vets in the rotation – Bjelica and Iman Shumpert – have done a solid job, so there’d be no hurt in adding another one.
The Kings have players out of the rotation who are expiring – Zach Randolph, Kosta Koufos, Ben McLemore – as well as young players who could use a fresh start like Skal Labissiere or Frank Mason III. The Kings aren’t a contender, but getting a guy like Ariza can help break their reputation as a joke franchise in the league.
It wouldn’t surprise this writer in the slightest if somebody else traded for Ariza. It’s just that these three teams have the most sensible packages on paper.
In the unlikely event that Ariza gets bought out, expect these teams to pursue him.
Houston – They have the 24th-rated defense at 111.7. They have the seventh lowest three-point percentage at 34.2. The Rockets were much better in both categories last season with much of it having to do with Ariza. They didn’t want to the guy to leave but they couldn’t top Phoenix’s offer. They’ll grab Ariza at the first opportunity he’s on the market.
Oklahoma City – Ariza would fit in like a glove since they have the highest-rated defense in the league at 100.5. What stops the Thunder from being a contender is their dreadful spacing, as they shoot just 31.1 percent from the field. Getting a trusted floor spacer like Trevor could do so much good for OKC.
New Orleans – They are in a very similar spot to Houston. They have the 26th-rated defense at 111.8, while ranking No. 19 in three-point percentage at 34.5. Ariza helps in both departments as well as helps them play more small-ball, which they could definitely use.
This season, we’ve seen teams who have made quick fixes with their severe issues. First, the Lakers added Chandler to improve their defense. Then, the Jazz added Kyle Korver to improve their three-point shooting.
With Trevor Ariza going on the market soon – which team will he be a quick fix for?
NBA Daily: The Young, Western Conference Bubble
The race for the West’s final playoff spot may seem crowded, but the last two months make it clear that two teams are already ahead of the pack.
We all jump to conclusions too quickly, this space and this scribe most certainly included. Three months ago, five weeks into the NBA season, the Western Conference playoff bubble looked like it would be a race between the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves. That has assuredly not become the reality.
While the Kings and Suns can claim to still be in the playoff race, they would have to not only make up five-game deficits, but they would also each have to jump over four other teams to reach the postseason. The Timberwolves would delight at such challenges as they initiate a not-so-subtle tank with franchise cornerstone Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined for at least a few weeks with a fractured wrist.
Instead, the race to be swept by the Los Angeles Lakers has come down to a pair of up-and-comers, a perpetual deep threat and the NBA’s most consistent organization. Of all of them, it is the youngsters who are both currently playing the best and have the most control of their playoff hopes relative to their competition.
Between the current No. 8-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers (3 games back), New Orleans Pelicans (3.5) and San Antonio Spurs (4), the next six weeks will feature eight key games. Five of those will include either the Grizzlies or the Pelicans or, in two instances, both.
That pair of matchups is still a month out, but they warrant circling already, nonetheless. Memphis and New Orleans have been playing at a high level for two-plus months now, and by the time they play two games within four nights in late March — when the basketball world is largely distracted by the NCAA Tournament — the two inexperienced teams may have completely separated from Portland and San Antonio.
After starting 1-5, 5-13 and then 10-19, the Grizzlies have gone 18-9 since Dec. 21. The Pelicans have matched that record exactly, down to the date, since starting even worse than Memphis did, bottoming out at 7-23 before finding an uptick long before Zion Williamson found the court. Winning two-thirds of your games for two months is a stretch with a sample size large enough to make it clear: Neither Memphis nor New Orleans should be dismissed in this playoff chase.
Their early-season profiles were examples of young teams sliding right back into the lottery — and there was absolutely no indication a surge was coming.
|Offensive Rating||106.4 – No. 23||106.8 – No. 21|
|Defensive Rating||111.7 – No. 23||113.5 – No. 27|
Through Dec. 20; via nba.com.
Then, for whatever reason, things changed. They changed in every way and in ways so drastically that one cannot help but wonder what could come next for the teams led by the top-two picks from last summer’s draft.
|Offensive Rating||111.9 – No. 15||115.1 – No. 4|
|Defensive Rating||109.3 – No. 11||110.3 – No. 13|
Since Dec. 21, through Feb. 23; via nba.com.
In a further coincidence of records and timing, the Blazers and Spurs have both gone 13-16 since Dec. 21.
If all four teams in the thick of things out west continue at these two-month winning rates for another month, then Portland and San Antonio will have drifted out of the playoff conversation before Williamson and Ja Morant meet for a second time. Of course, those rates would keep New Orleans a few games back of Memphis; the latter has 14 games, compared to 12, before March 21, so the gap in the standings would actually expand to an even four games.
If the Pelicans can just pick up a game or two before then, though, they have already beaten the Grizzlies twice this season. Doing so twice more that week would just about send New Orleans into the playoffs – at which point, perhaps Williamson could steal a game from LeBron James to put a finishing coda on his rookie season.
NBA Daily: The Stretch Run — Southwest Division
David Yapkowitz finishes Basketball Insiders’ Stretch Run series with an overview of the Southwest Division.
We’ve hit that point in the NBA season approaching the final stretch of games before the playoffs roll around in April. The trade deadline has come and gone, the buyout market is wearing thin and most teams have loaded up and made their final roster moves in anticipation of the postseason.
Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re taking a look at each team — division by division– at what they need to do to get ready for the playoffs, or lack thereof. Looking at the Southwest Division, this was a division that used to be one of the toughest in the league.
It still is for the most part. The Texas triangle of the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs was no joke and hell for opposing teams on a road trip. Those are still a couple of formidable teams, but with the exception of the Rockets, it’s not quite near the level of yesteryear.
The Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans are a pair of young, up-and-coming teams that will give you 100 percent every night. While Memphis sits firmly in the eighth spot in the Western Conference, the Pelicans are on the outside looking in. Here’s a look at how each team might fare in the stretch run.
The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the Southwest all season long, and all that remains for them is playoff positioning. They currently sit in fourth place in the West, giving them home-court advantage in the first round, but they could just as easily slip a bit with the Utah Jazz essentially tied with them record-wise in the standings and the Oklahoma City Thunder a mere two games back.
The Dallas Mavericks have taken a huge leap this season behind Luka Doncic, who is rapidly becoming one of the best players in the league. They currently sit in seventh place in the West and a return to the postseason is in the cards for the Mavericks.
The rest of the teams in the Southwest is where things get a little interesting. The Grizzlies have been one of the surprises of the season, as they’ve defied expectations and are firmly entrenched in the playoff race out West. They have a three-game lead on the Portland Trail Blazers and a four-game lead on the San Antonio Spurs.
Out of the Grizzlies’ final 26 games, 15 of them come against teams over .500, more than either the Blazers or the Spurs. 14 of those final 26 are also on the road, again, more than the Blazers or the Spurs. They also play both the Spurs and Blazers one more time this season. If the Grizzlies end up making the playoffs, it will be very well earned.
The Spurs are knocking on the door, and they have one more game against the Grizzlies which could prove to be very meaningful. This is a team that has been one of the standard-bearers in the league for success over the past decade. Their streak of playoff appearances is in serious jeopardy.
They’ve won two of their last three games, however, and out of their final 26 games, 15 of those are at home, where they are 14-12. Based on how the Grizzlies are playing though, a close to .500 record at home probably isn’t going to cut it. They’re going to need to pick it up a bit over the next month if they want to keep their playoff streak intact. A lot can happen between now and then, and the Grizzlies do have a tough remaining schedule, but it looks as if San Antonio will miss the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.
The final team in the Southwest is the Pelicans, boosted by the return of prized rookie and No.1 draft pick Zion Williamson. Prior to the start of the season, the Pelicans were looked at as a team that could possibly contend for the eighth seed in the West. Then Williamson got hurt and things changed.
But the team managed to stay afloat in his absence, and as it stands, they’re only three-and-a-half games back of the Grizzlies with 26 games left to play. Out of the bottom three teams in the division, it’s the Pelicans who have the easiest schedule.
Out of those 25 games, only seven of them come against teams over .500. They are, however, just about split with home and away games. New Orleans is 8-2 over their past 10 games, better than the Grizzlies and Spurs. If Memphis falters down the stretch due to its tough schedule, and the Pelicans start gaining a little bit of steam, things could get interesting in the final few weeks.
In all likelihood, the Pelicans probably won’t make the playoffs as not only do they have to catch up to the Grizzlies, but the Spurs and Blazers as well. But it certainly will be fun to watch them try.
There are some big storylines in the Southwest Division worth following as we begin the final run to the postseason. Can the young Grizzlies defy expectations and make a surprise return to the playoffs? Will the Spurs get their playoff streak snapped and finally look to hit the reset button after nearly two decades of excellence? Can the Pelicans, buoyed by Williamson’s return, make a strong final push?
Tune in to what should be fun final stretch in the Southwest.
NBA Daily: The Stretch Run — Southeast Division
With the All-Star Break behind us, the final stretch of NBA games has commenced. Quinn Davis takes a look at a few teams in the Southeast Division that have a chance at making the dance.
Well, that was fast.
With the NBA All-Star break in the rearview, there are now fewer than 30 games to play for all 30 NBA teams. In other words, time is running out for certain teams to improve their seeding in the conference.
Here at Basketball Insiders, we will be looking at a certain subset of teams that are right on the border of making or missing the playoffs. In this edition, the focus will be on the Southeast Division.
The Southeast features three teams — the Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards — operating in the lower-middle-class of the NBA. These three will be slugging it out over the next month-and-a-half for the right to meet the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs.
The two remaining teams are the Miami HEAT and Atlanta Hawks. As this is being written, the former is comfortably in the playoffs at 35-20, while the latter is comfortably gathering more ping pong balls at 16-41.
In this space, the focus will be on the three bubble teams. The Magic are currently frontrunners for the eighth seed, but the Wizards and Hornets are within striking distance if things were to go awry.
Led by head coach Steve Clifford, the Magic have ground their way to the eighth seed behind an eighth-ranked defense. Lanky wing Aaron Gordon is the standout, helping the Magic execute their scheme of walling off the paint. The Magic only allow 31.3 percent of opponent shots to come at the rim, putting them in 89th percentile in the league, per Cleaning The Glass.
Following a post-break loss to Dallas Mavericks, the Magic sit at 24-32 and three games up on the ninth-seeded Wizards. While a three-game margin doesn’t sound like much, that is a sizable cushion with only 26 games to play. Basketball-Reference gives the Magic a 97.4 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The Magic have the third-easiest remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams. They have very winnable games coming against the Bulls, Hornets, Cavaliers, Knicks and Pistons. They also have multiple games coming against the Brooklyn Nets, the team they trail by only 1.5 games for the seventh seed.
The Magic are prone, however, to dropping games against the league’s bottom-feeders. It can be difficult to string together wins with an offense this sluggish. The Markelle Fultz experiment has added some spark in that department, but his lack of an outside shot still leaves the floor cramped.
After a quick analysis of the schedule, the most likely scenario appears to be a 12-14 record over the last 26 games, putting the Magic at 36-46 come season’s end. A record like that should not be allowed anywhere near playoff basketball, but it would probably be enough to meet the Bucks in round one.
If the Magic go 12-14, that would leave the Wizards, fresh off a loss to J.B. Bickerstaff and the Cleveland Cavaliers, needing to go 17-11 over their last 28 games. They will need to finish one game ahead as the Magic hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Wizards finishing that strong becomes even more farfetched when you consider their remaining schedule. They have the second-toughest slate from here on out, per Basketball-Reference.
The Wizards do have a trump card in Bradley Beal, who is the best player among the bubble teams in the East. He has now scored 25 points or more in 13 straight games and has been the driving force behind the Wizards staying in the race.
He has also picked up his defense a bit following his All-Star snub in an effort to silence his critics. The increased focus on that end is nice, but it would’ve been a little nicer if it had been a part of his game earlier in this season when the Wizards were by far the worst defense in the league.
Even if Beal goes bonkers, it is hard to see a path for this Wizards team to sneak in outside of a monumental collapse in Orlando. Looking at their schedule, it would take some big upsets to even get to 10 wins over their last 28. Their most likely record to finish the season is 8-20 if all games go to the likely favorites.
The Wizards’ offense has been impressive all season, but injuries and a porous defense have been too much to overcome.
The Hornets, meanwhile, trail the Wizards by 1.5 games and the Magic by 4.5 games. They have won their last three in a row to put themselves back in this race, but they still have an uphill climb.
The Hornets also may have raised the proverbial white flag by waiving two veterans in Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The goal coming into this season was never to make the playoffs, so they are likely more interested in developing young talent over these last 27 games.
If the Magic do play up to their usual levels and go 12-14, it would require the Hornets to go 18-9 to finish the season against the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the East.
Devonte’ Graham and his three-point shooting have been a bright spot for the Hornets, but it would take some otherworldly performances from him and Terry Rozier down the stretch to put together a record like that. Basketball-Reference gives this a 0.02 percent chance of happening (cue the Jim Carrey GIF).
Barring a miracle, the eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are locked in place. The only questions remaining are how seeds 2-6 will play out, and whether the Magic can catch the Nets for the seventh spot.
The Wizards will fight to the end, but it is unlikely they make up any ground given the level of opponents they will see over the next six weeks. The Hornets, meanwhile, are more likely to fight for lottery odds.
At least the playoffs should be exciting.