As the favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals this year, the Milwaukee Bucks clearly own the Central Division. That being said, finding a potential breakout player for them proved to be difficult compared to the other four teams in the division.
There are a lot of new parts and pieces in the division, and even some familiar faces on the other side of the fence. Malcolm Brogdon, Thaddeus Young, and former MVP Derrick Rose are just a few of the names wearing different uniforms in the Central. Aside from the top spot, the pecking order of the division will largely be decided by which players make a leap forward this season.
The winner of the Most Improved Player Award is a good gauge for this exercise. Four of the last seven winners of this award all came from a team in the Central Division. Victor Oladipo (Pacers), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), Jimmy Butler (Bulls), and Paul George (Pacers) have all continued to thrive in their respective careers. Last year’s winner Pascal Siakam was arguably the second-best player on a championship-winning team.
Below are seven players from the Central Division that are destined to have a breakout year.
Markkanen is arguably the most likely breakout candidate within the Central Division. The 22-year old enters his third season with high expectations as one of the cornerstone pieces of the franchise. The Bulls have had horrible luck with injuries over the past few years, and Markkanen is no exception. The versatile big man missed 14 games in his rookie season and 32 games last year after missing the first couple of months of the season.
One major aspect of Markkanen’s game is the three-point shooting. The seven-footer shot 36 percent from deep in his rookie and sophomore seasons and is averaging 2.2 threes made per game thus far. That is the most among seven-footers by a comfortable margin (the next most is 1.5 attempts). Lauri had a strong stretch last season where he averaged at least 20 points and 9 rebounds in 11 consecutive games. If he can get on that same level, with stability from the players around him and head coach Jim Boylen, Markkanen could very well become an All-Star this season.
Wendell Carter Jr.
Should Carter have a breakout season, he will have to stay healthy. The 2018 seventh overall pick missed nearly half of his rookie campaign last year due to multiple injuries. He had surgery for a sports hernia in July and two more issues this summer. On the first day of training camp, he suffered a sprained ankle and a tailbone contusion. If the big man stays on the floor, there is no doubt he will be effective. In the 44 games he played, Carter averaged 10.3 points per game, 7 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 0.6 steals.
While 44 games is a small sample size, Carter’s per 36 minutes statistics looked promising. Scoring 15 points and grabbing 10 rebounds are reasonable expectations for the 20-year old in his sophomore season. Carter should be a double-double machine for the young Bulls, especially with Markkanen on the perimeter. With Robin Lopez no longer in the fold, Chicago lacks serious depth at the center position. They desperately need to keep Carter healthy and conditioned if they want to make a run at the playoffs this season.
The last Pistons guard to score 20 points per game was Richard Hamilton in 2005-06. While that likely won’t happen for Kennard, he should step up his scoring output from his first two seasons. Should Kennard start this season, his offensive upside could be limited playing alongside Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond and either Reggie Jackson or Derrick Rose. What if he were to take on a sixth-man role and be the offensive focal point of the second unit?
Bruce Brown could be a better fit with the starting group, utilizing his defensive skillset. During the regular season, Luke played just under 23 minutes per game. In the playoffs though, he led the team in minutes at more than 33 per game, resulting in a scoring average of 15 points per contest. Kennard has also shown that he can drive to the basket and create for others, which could raise his assist numbers and help Detroit return to the playoffs.
Brown started 56 games for Detroit as a rookie last season. That may come as a surprise until you realize how tenacious he is on the defensive end of the floor. Brown’s 1.6 Defensive Win Shares and 1.7 Defensive Box Plus-Minus ratings (per 36 minutes) from last season were impressive. Even outside of the raw numbers, you can visually notice his high defensive IQ by how he jumps the passing lanes and uses his quick hands to create loose balls. His length and strength are a lethal combination for a team that desperately needed a strong defender on the perimeter.
The determining factor for Brown breaking out this season will be what he can improve in his offensive game. He was a liability on that end of the floor last year, shooting a dreadful 25.8 percent from behind the arc. Most rookies struggle with that shot in their first season, though. They also tend to have problems finishing at the rim, which Brown did as well. His upside is very high, but it all depends on his ability to grow as an offensive player.
Turner broke out a fair amount last season, but this year figures to be the one where he really takes a big leap. The 23-year old has elite interior skills and can switch defensively on the perimeter. Couple that with his silky smooth jump shot and you have a serious weapon on your hands. Turner worked with Hall of Fame big man Kevin McHale to develop some interior post moves and fine-tune his decision making. He has had a problem with getting pushed around, so he worked on strengthening his core improving his lower body strength. If he can actually get to his spot, it will dramatically help Indiana’s offense.
After leading the league in blocks last season, Turner said he is still not content with his defensive skill set. Myles frequently fell for pump fakes and was often a half-a-step late on rotations. Being in the right spot at the right time is something that comes with experience. As he begins his fifth season, all eyes will be on Turner and fellow big man Domantas Sabonis. The two bigs nearly took home the Sixth Man and Defensive Player of the Year awards last season. If the duo can play well together, they could anchor the Pacers while Oladipo continues to rehab.
Four of Milwaukee’s starters are set in stone, but the question is who will start alongside Eric Bledsoe. It may very well be the 2017-18 Final Four Most Outstanding Player, but there is a lot of competition for the spot. Donte’s rookie campaign was cut short due to injury, so 27 games is a small sample size, but he did have the fifth-highest defensive rating among players with at least 20 games played.
Like most rookies, Donte struggled with his outside shot, shooting just 27 percent from beyond the arc and just 40 percent overall. While at Villanova, DiVincenzo shot 38 percent from three. He scored 31 points off the bench in the NCAA Championship game and could play a similar role this year if the starting job goes to Wes Matthews, George Hill, Kyle Korver, Pat Connaughton or Sterling Brown. It is a crowded backcourt in Milwaukee, but Donte could separate himself from the pack if he finds his three-point shot.
Sexton’s rookie season essentially felt like two different ones. The young point guard struggled for the first half of the season, but definitely found himself in the final few months. In his final 29 games, he averaged more than 21 points per game on 47 percent shooting. He also improved his long-range shooting, as he hit 42 percent of his shots from behind the arc. That was with Kevin Love on and off the floor, but the five-time All-Star is healthy and ready (for now) to lead this rebuilding effort. That should bode well for Sexton and rookie Darius Garland, giving them more space to operate and a reliable knock-down shooter they can pass to.
Cleveland surprised a lot of people when they decided to hire 66-year old John Beilein as their new head coach. This actually will be beneficial to Sexton and Garland, as they learn to share the ball and run the offense. If anyone understands how the ball screen offense works, it is the former Michigan coach. The role players will take turns in the spotlight throughout the season, but Sexton should be primed for a breakout season as long as Love can stay healthy – and he and Garland can learn how to play off of each other.
There are a handful of guys that are less likely to have a breakout season this year, but should show significant signs of improvement. Cleveland has a lot of young players, but one guy that has experience and some serious upside is Larry Nance Jr. In Detroit, Svi Mykhailiuk and Christian Wood are two young players to watch as the Pistons aim to take that next step.
The Pacers likely won’t sneak up on anyone this year, but one name you should familiarize yourself with is Edmond Sumner. Aaron Holiday is another guard in Indiana that could fill in quite nicely during Oladipo’s absence. Chicago’s new starting point guard Tomas Satoransky is likely to have a career-best season after three years as the backup in Washington.
That is how things might shake out in the Central Division. Make sure to get the full rundown on the Southwest Division tomorrow.
Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.
We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.
With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.
The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old
Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.
He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.
Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.
Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old
Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.
He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.
Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.
Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old
Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.
He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.
One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old
Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards
Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.
It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.
Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.
The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.
But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.
Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old
Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.
But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.
Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.
Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old
Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.
And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.
While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.
If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.
Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old
Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).
Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.
Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.
Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old
Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.
Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.
But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.
Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.
Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old
Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old
Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old
With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.
NBA Daily: Opposite Plotlines for Today’s Matchups
With the two matchups going on today, Matt John examines the two teams who could be in the most trouble because of one of their individual stars for opposite reasons.
The second round of the NBA playoffs was hyped up to be one of the most entertaining we’ve had in years. So far, they haven’t fallen short of expectations. We knew that Houston and Los Angeles’ battle of opposite philosophies would make for some twists and turns. We knew that Boston and Toronto would duke it out in an Atlantic Division showdown. We knew that Miami would push Milwaukee to new heights. We didn’t really know if the Nuggets would give the Clippers a good series, but the fact that they have so far has made an intense postseason all the more gripping.
Anyway, today we’re getting two games from two series in completely opposite places. The Lakers and the Rockets will face off for the series lead, while the HEAT will try to finish off the Bucks once and for all. Below, we’re going to focus on two teams who have an individual star that either may be more flawed than we thought or one that may not be as flawed as we thought.
Bucks vs. HEAT: Giannis is great and all, but…
We all pretty much knew this was going to be a good series. We did not expect this.
The buzz surrounding Bucks v. HEAT was that Miami was going to make Milwaukee earn every win they got in this series. If that was the plan, then Miami has failed miserably, because until Khris Middleton went supernova on them on Sunday, Milwaukee had come up terribly short.
Let’s first give Miami the credit that they are due and more. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler alone, Miami was going to be a tough matchup for Milwaukee – but to see the Bucks all but roll over in this series is an unpleasant sight. Acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala has paid huge dividends and it’s showing. There are other factors involved, but Miami’s defensive efforts have limited Giannis to 21.8 points a game and that’s played a role in the HEAT being in the driver’s seat of this series.
Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, this series has not been a good look for the Defensive Player of the Year. Especially since it looks like his second consecutive MVP (presumably) is right around the corner. So, to see both him and Milwaukee, once an unstoppable force without an immovable object in sight, get stopped by a sturdy but not immovable squad is saddening.
Nearly a year ago, Basketball Insiders compared these current Bucks to the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic from the late-2000’s/early 2010’s. To oversimplify things, both were contenders led by a superstar with a rare physique that made them tough to stop. To put the superstar in the best position, they surrounded them with playmakers and three-point shooters.
While the teams’ roster constructions weren’t exactly the same, their strengths as a team certainly were. Now we’re seeing the Bucks’ flaws just as we did the Magic 10 years ago. If you have the personnel to make the lone superstar uncomfortable, the team doesn’t function as well.
Giannis is near impossible to stop, but the one major flaw is that if you take away his ability to drive and force him into a jumper, he loses his rhythm. Even if his shot is on – never a guarantee – his opponents will let him beat them that way until he makes them pay. Hardly any team can pick on this, but the HEAT are one of them, and now they’re one win away from their first Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James took his talents out of South Beach.
This ultimately is what puts Antetokounmpo below the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard for now. Those guys are rare physical specimens like him, but their elite games don’t revolve entirely around their natural gifts as he does or Dwight did. At 25 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to change that and, for all we know, he will, but to see him struggle at a time when the conference was supposed to run through him has ignited tons of questions.
Milwaukee’s technically not out yet, but they’ve shown their mortality against Miami. If this really is it for them, then they’ve got to find a quick fix for this problem because if they don’t, then the unspeakable may happen.
Lakers vs. Rockets: Westbrook has been bad and all but…
Shaking off the rust and recovering from a balky knee would be tough for anyone. For Russell Westbrook, it’s killing his productivity and, in turn, the Rockets’ playoff chances. He’s averaging 15.6 points on 39/16/47 splits with a most recent 10-point, 4-of-15 effort from the field which included seven turnovers and air balling wide-open threes sticking out like a sore thumb.
It also doesn’t help that he’s playing the Lakers of all teams. When Westbrook has been in, the Lakers have taken advantage of his shortcomings offensively and it shows both on the court and the stat line.
Most of Westbrook’s damage is hurting Houston on the offensive end. With the All-Star guard in the game, Houston is minus-13.7 with him on the court, the worst offensive rating on the team. The 12 turnovers he’s coughed up in this series probably have something to do with that.
With Westbrook’s struggles and his predecessor Chris Paul coming off of his best individual season since 2016, this, of course, has led to many second-guessing the swap last summer. Or let’s rephrase that: People have been second-guessing that trade since the moment it was announced and, in light of recent events, they’re piling on now more than ever.
Maybe they’re right. Even after playing in the NBA for over a decade now, Westbrook still hasn’t proven that he can control himself enough to reach his potential as a team player. We’ve seen glimpses. On the other hand, Paul showed that he can still pick apart defenses while holding his own on that end.
But replacing Paul with Westbrook was Harden’s idea. He didn’t want to play with Paul anymore and chose to play with one of his closest friends. You may think that the better fit is what’s best for the team, but we’ve seen the damage that can happen when your team’s best players have friction with one another. It hurt Utah this season. It hurt Boston last season. It destroyed the Lakers back in 2013. There’s no telling what it could have done to Houston this season.
Besides, we know that as bad as Westbrook has been, he’s capable of being better. Not a knockdown shooter, not even an efficient scorer, but he has done better in the past when the focus was on him. The more days he takes to shake off the rust from his knee, the more optimistic the Rockets ought to be.
The Rockets have to take the glass-half-full on this one because they don’t really have a choice otherwise.
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