With last night’s win by the Memphis Grizzlies over a Minnesota Timberwolves team fighting for its playoff life, things got a little bit more interesting in the NBA’s race for Draft Lottery odds. In this home stretch edition of Tank Tracker, we’ll look at remaining games between teams that are eliminated from playoff contention.
While the Grizzlies may have slipped a bit in the race to the bottom, Phoenix has kept its foot on the gas. The Suns are 2-26 since a Jan. 19 win over the Nuggets and have separate five and 10-game losing streaks in addition to the current 12-game streak. The wins were against the Mavericks on Jan. 31 and Grizzlies on Feb. 28. That puts Phoenix in an excellent position to retain the best lottery odds, given how remaining strength of schedule will factor in.
Los Angeles Lakers, 32-41
The Lakers host the Mavericks Wednesday and the Kings Sunday before closing the season with four of five games against teams currently in playoff position. The Lakers’ 32 wins are by far the most on this list. There’s little chance the Lakers end up with anything other than the 10th-best odds to move up in the lottery. That would leave the 76ers with only a 1.1 percent chance to land the top overall pick. The 76ers keep the Lakers pick if it lands at the top position or at picks 6-30. If it lands at positions 2-5, it will be conveyed to the Celtics.
New York Knicks, 27-48
The Knicks host the Orlando Magic April 3 but otherwise play five of the remaining seven games against teams currently in playoff position. New York also hosts the Pistons Saturday. Detroit retains an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs and will be playing to win. If the Knicks retain the ninth-worst record at season’s end, New York would have a six percent chance to vault into the top three and a 1.7 percent shot to win the top overall pick.
Chicago Bulls, 24-49
Chicago hosts the Magic Friday and splits a pair of games home and away with the Brooklyn Nets before the season finale against Detroit. The Pistons would need to make a run at the eighth playoff seed for that final game of the season to have any meaning. Otherwise, the Bulls have four of nine games remaining against teams in playoff position. The team also hosts the Charlotte Hornets April 3, another team that — like the Pistons — is barely clinging to hope of making the playoffs. With five games remaining against teams currently out of playoff position, it would be difficult for the Bulls to improve on the current 10 percent chance to move into the top three and 2.8 percent chance to land the first overall pick.
Sacramento Kings, 24-50
The Kings host the Mavericks tonight and open a road trip with visits to the Lakers, Suns, and Grizzlies starting Sunday. With half of its remaining games against teams already eliminated from the playoffs, it appears the Kings are locked into no better than the 15 percent chance to move into the top three and 4.3 percent chance at the top pick it would have if the playoffs started today.
Brooklyn Nets, 23-51
For the Nets, Wednesday’s visit to the Orlando Magic, along with a home-and-home with the Bulls April 7 and 9, are the remaining game against teams eliminated from the playoffs. Brooklyn hosts the Pistons Saturday, and Detroit should still be mathematically alive for a playoff spot by then. It’s a pretty light remaining schedule for Brooklyn, but the Cavaliers own the team’s first-round pick. If the Nets retain the sixth-worst record at season’s end, Cleveland would have a 22 percent chance at a top-three pick and a 6.3 percent chance at first overall.
Dallas Mavericks, 22-51
It will be difficult for the Mavericks to improve its lottery odds with visits to the Kings and Lakers starting tonight, a visit to Orlando April 4 and a visit from the Suns to close the season April 10. Dallas also hosts the Pistons April 6 at a time when Detroit will likely be out of the playoff picture with nothing left to play for. That’s a super-light remaining schedule, and the Mavericks’ best hope may be to cling to the 29 percent chance at a top-three pick and 8.8 percent chance at the first overall pick the team would have if it finishes with the fifth-worst record.
Orlando Magic, 22-51
The Magic host Brooklyn Wednesday and Chicago Friday, then open a road trip with visits to the Hawks and Knicks Sunday. After that, Orlando returns home to host the Mavericks April 4 and the Hornets April 6. Charlotte will almost certainly be eliminated from playoff contention by that point, meaning the next six games could come against teams with no motivation to move up in the standings. The Magic have the third-easiest remaining schedule according to Tankathon.com. That leaves Orlando with possibly a best-case scenario of retaining the 38 percent chance to move into the top three and 11.9 percent chance at the top pick the team would have if it finishes with the fourth-worst record.
Atlanta Hawks, 21-53
In contrast to the Magic, only the Suns have a tougher remaining schedule among teams on this list than the Hawks. Sunday’s visit by Orlando is Atlanta’s only remaining game against a team currently eliminated from the playoffs. The other seven games on Atlanta’s schedule all come against teams currently in playoff position. The remaining opponents’ win percentage of .542 is seventh-highest per Tankathon. While we previously speculated that the Hawks could tumble out of position for a top-three pick, Atlanta is now in prime position to have no worse than a 47 percent chance to stay in the top three and a 15.6 percent shot at the top overall selection.
Memphis Grizzlies, 20-54
After a 19-game losing streak, the longest in Memphis history, the Grizzlies made things interesting with a 101-94 win over the Nuggets March 17 and last night’s 101-93 win in Minnesota over the Timberwolves. That brings Memphis within one game of Atlanta in the win column. The Grizzlies will host the Kings April 6 followed by the Pistons April 8. Detroit will likely be out of playoff contention by that point. Still, Memphis faces six remaining games against teams in playoff position. The win percentage for remaining opponents is nearly identical to that of the Hawks. With the second-worst record, Memphis would have a 56 percent chance of picking in the top three and a 19.9 percent chance to land the top pick.
Phoenix Suns, 19-56
Only the Nuggets and Thunder face a tougher remaining schedule than the Suns, per Tankathon. Phoenix hosts a Clippers team clinging to its playoff life Wednesday before visits to Houston and Golden State. Afterward, the Suns will host the Kings April 3 before hosting the Pelicans and Warriors. The season finale is an April 10 visit to the Mavericks in what could be a tanktastic match-up for the ages. Should the Suns manage not to slip in the tank standings, Phoenix would retain a 64 percent chance at a top-three pick and a 25 percent chance to select first overall.
With Atlanta, Memphis and Phoenix all facing brutal remaining schedules, it will be difficult for teams higher on this list to move past them to increase their lottery odds. The remaining match-ups among teams on this list will present the greatest opportunity for movement in the final NBA Draft Lottery order. We’re in the home stretch now with lottery reform taking effect next season, so enjoy the tankapalooza while it lasts.
NBA Draft Watch: Should You Expect a Flurry Of Trades?
Should you expect a flurry of trades during tonight’s NBA Draft? History says yes!
Draft Day. The event that rebuilding teams have been planning months for is finally upon us. The next wave of NBA stars await their opportunity to play under the brightest of all lights on the biggest of stages. But outside of the rising and falling status of the prospects, each year draft week is filled with a flurry of trade activity and there’s no reason to believe things will be different in 2018.
On Wednesday, the trade market kicked off with the Charlotte Hornets shipping former Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for veteran center Timofey Mozgov. The move isn’t all that surprising considering one of the biggest advocates for the Hornets in acquiring Howard from Atlanta last year, Steve Clifford, was fired back in April. In addition to a new head coach, James Borrego, Charlotte also hired a new president of basketball operations and general manager in Mitch Kupchak.
In the deal, Charlotte was able to avoid paying the luxury tax while also creating immediate salary cap flexibility to be players in this year’s market should they choose. For Brooklyn, the team acquires a veteran presence for their youth movement and a consistent double-double anchor on the interior.
The trade also marks consecutive years that Brooklyn was active on the trade front during draft time. Last year, the team acquired former lottery pick D’Angelo Russell from the Los Angeles Lakers. Since the Nets haven’t had the luxury of prime draft assets in recent years, the team has had to resort to trades (Russell, Howard) and free agency (Allan Crabbe) to reshape the roster.
Transitioning to the defending champion Golden State Warriors, the question can be asked whether this will be the third straight year involving a draft day trade. At the top of the Warriors’ lineup max players reside which means the team has had to find talented gems in the back half of the draft to contribute to their success.
In 2016, the Warriors acquired the rights to the No. 38 overall pick, Patrick McCaw, from the Milwaukee Bucks for cash considerations. In 2017, Golden State acquired the rights to another No. 38 overall pick, Jordan Bell, from the Chicago Bulls for cash considerations.
Notice a trend?
With the Warriors needing to lock NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant into a long term deal this summer and future free agency looming for All-Stars Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, the franchise will need to continue finding young role players to complement their collection of stars.
There could also be a deal involving All-Star level talent.
The Oklahoma City Thunder traded for Victor Oladipo back in 2016 in a draft week deal with the Orlando Magic. While Oladipo didn’t emerge as an All-Star caliber until the following season (after being dealt to Indiana), there are usually a couple of big names in play come draft night.
Consider the 2017 draft day deal that saw the Chicago Bulls send Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for talented two guard Zach LaVine.
This year, the most prominent name potentially on the market is San Antonio Spurs All-Star forward Kawhi Leonard. The rumor mill reports Leonard is frustrated and wants a trade to the Lakers. The Spurs are, of course, attempting to keep their franchise player with a series of meetings. Leonard could become an unrestricted free agent next summer and his public trade demand limits what San Antonio could demand in return. Teams will be hesitant to give up prime assets for a player that won’t commit to their franchise long term. While San Antonio doesn’t have to make an immediate deal their leverage hasn’t been compromised with Leonard’s specific trade destination request.
The NBA Draft can best be described as a crapshoot with prospects being hit or miss. There are teams that make their bones via draft day acquisitions, or working between the lines, which is a storyline to watch during the draft tonight.
NBA Draft Watch: Storylines Heading into Thursday’s Draft
With the NBA Draft just one day away, there is plenty of uncertainty on how things will play out, writes Dennis Chambers.
From now until the conclusion of Thursday night’s NBA draft the landscape is subject to shift and evolve at a moment’s notice.
As of right now, the only thing that we can be most certain about is DeAndre Ayton going first overall to the Phoenix Suns. After that, it’s basically a crapshoot in regards to what might go down.
With media day commencing in New York City on Wednesday, the players that will be present during the draft’s greenroom got the chance to address the droves of media from all over the land about where they might end up, how they might fit in those places, and a few off-the-cuff questions thrown in here and there.
Because of the uncertainty surrounding the league and their selection extravaganza on Thursday night, many people who are usually in the know this time of year seem to be approaching the event erring on the side of caution, more so than in years past.
Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer echoed that feeling Wednesday afternoon.
The sense I get from chatting with executives and agents is there's far more uncertainty entering the NBA Draft than usual. So many teams are open to moving up, down or out. No consensus outside the lottery. It's gonna be absolute chaos. I'm pumped and jacked for it.
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) June 20, 2018
One of the large looming clouds heading into draft night is the Kawhi Leonard situation. As it stands, Leonard appears to want out of his relationship with the San Antonio Spurs and would prefer to wind up in Los Angeles, with an emphasis on the Lakers being his new employer.
According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Leonard met with Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich on Tuesday night in order to discuss the situation between San Antonio and their franchise player.
While Wojnarowski has also reported that the Spurs are in no rush to move Leonard, draft night could potentially serve as a motivator in the opposite direction should Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford receive a tempting offer that involves some draft capital. With the likes of the Philadelphia 76ers reportedly interested in acquiring Leonard, on the clock with the 10th overall pick, perhaps they can entice the Spurs into sending their star forward packing.
Regardless of if Leonard is traded Thursday night or not, there were certainly be many eyes on his situation over the next 24-plus hours.
Up until about the time a player is selected by their new club, the situation for drafting remains fairly fluid. When the basketball community congregates to New York the day before the event, rumors and confirmation of shifting ideals begin to flourish.
With a lot of the players in this year’s lottery surounded by reasonable question marks, we may see last-minute rising and falling of the prospected hierarchy in prospects. Michael Porter Jr., with questions surrounding his health, and Trae Young having questions about his slight frame and defensive capability, seem to be two subjects of that shuffling just a day before the Thursday night festivities.
Latest buzz: Hearing Michael Porter and Trae Young are both falling, and that even Knicks could pass on Young at 9. Meanwhile Wendell Carter is gaining steam, strong candidate to go in 4-7 range.
— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) June 20, 2018
Conversely, the final moments leading up to the time to make a selection, teams can shuffle their opinion based off of their need to bring in star power possibilities — especially high up in the lottery.
Real Madrid star Luka Doncic has been the subject for criticism throughout this year’s draft process. While the 19-year-old has posted some of the best numbers for a player his age in the ACB and Euroleague, NBA evaluators are rightfully questioning if his athleticism can hold up in the league.
Originally figured to slip past the Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks, who hold the second and third overall picks, respectively, Doncic appears to be gaining last-minute steam within the ranks of the Georgia-based basketball club.
Luka Doncic has moved to forefront of Atlanta's internal conversation on the third overall pick in Thursday's NBA Draft, league sources tell ESPN. Michigan State's Jaren Jackson and Duke's Marvin Bagley (if Kings pass on Bagley at No. 2) remain in contention for No. 3.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 20, 2018
Even though prospects are surfacing Wednesday in the Big Apple to meet and greet with reporters, and get settled for their big moment on Thursday night, some teams and correlating players are having final sit-downs to profess their admiration for each other.
More specifically, New York native and projected high-end lottery pick, Mo Bamba, reportedly met with his hometown Knicks on Wednesday. Corresponding reports tell the story that the Knicks are exploring the option to trade up in the draft, in hopes to acquire a franchise-caliber center to put alongside Kristaps Porzingis.
Members of the Knicks organization met in-person with Texas’ Mohamed Bamba in New York today, team sources told ESPN. The meeting is an indication that the Knicks are considering trading up from the No. 9 pick. Bamba is projected as the fifth pick in ESPN's latest mock draft.
— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) June 20, 2018
DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony added context to further confirm the Knicks’ hope of scoring their first franchise center since Patrick Ewing roamed Madison Square Garden.
Ian's report is accurate. The Knicks are reportedly exploring the option of trading up to the #4 spot in the draft, currently owned by Memphis. The Grizzlies have been adamant about shedding Chandler Parsons' contract in any deal. https://t.co/z4Yp0w6hfq
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 20, 2018
Whatever does wind up happening Thursday night, those watching can be assured that this year’s NBA Draft will contain the necessary amount of chaos to continue the conversation throughout the league while free agency quickly approaches.
Although, if you were anticipating being able to see those draft picks come in a few minutes early on Twitter like in years past, think again.
A source tells AA that ESPN, Turner Sports and Yahoo reporters all won't tip picks at Thursday's NBA Draft. The NBA says they expressed a no-pick-tipping "preference" to their media partners, but claims each organization made its own call. https://t.co/rySL02Nig1
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) June 20, 2018
It looks like those draft night Wojbombs will be reserved for any unforeseen trades, and not who your favorite team will be picking 10 minutes later.
Either way, embrace the insanity. Draft night is upon us.
NBA Daily: What is Cleveland’s Next Move?
Plenty has been made about where LeBron goes this summer, but not much has been made about what Cleveland will do if he leaves.
Usually, when you make the NBA Finals, it’s a good thing. Especially if it was the fourth consecutive time you’ve made it.
For Cleveland though, this season, which would have been deemed a success in any other case, was overshadowed by what can only be compared to a hostage situation. Many speculated that this season was going to be LeBron James’ last as a Cavalier, as rumor had it since last summer that he already has his eyes on his next team.
So the pressure was on in Cleveland, to say the least. They did everything to accommodate LeBron given how shaky the circumstances were. From shipping disgruntled star Kyrie Irving out of town to trading half the team mid-season, this past season has been a bumpy ride. In spite of all the hardship, Cleveland managed to make it to the Finals anyway.
Still, it wasn’t enough. For Cleveland to have a realistic chance at re-signing LeBron this summer, they had to beat Golden State, which wasn’t in the cards. The Cavs may have gotten to the Finals, but the Warriors predictably took them out all too quickly.
All in all, the Cavaliers were so close, and yet so far.
That brings us to now. LeBron’s going to test the free agency waters again. Cleveland will certainly do what they can to bring the King back for another season, and for all we know, LeBron could return to Cleveland, but the odds aren’t in their favor.
Cleveland has to deal with the very real possibility that LeBron will leave this summer, because if and when he does, that leaves the current roster in a flux. Without LeBron, Captain Obvious says that Cleveland’s not going anywhere near the Finals and could also see themselves on the outside of the playoff picture. All signs point to it being time to rebuild, but how exactly do they approach the re-building stage?
It all starts with the Nets pick.
No matter what you think of how Cleveland did when they shuffled half their roster around at the trade deadline, one thing should be universally agreed upon: They made the right move not trading the Nets pick they acquired from the Celtics for Kyrie Irving.
It’s true that the Nets pick this season didn’t pan out as well for the Cavaliers as it had for the Celtics over the last two seasons, but it still wound up being the eighth overall pick in a loaded draft. A valuable asset like that should only be traded for someone who puts you over the top and going to stay long-term. With all apologies to any star who was rumored to be on the market back in February, the Cavs didn’t have that option.
So now, Cleveland has the eighth overall pick, and it’s clear who they should take: The best player available. No matter who that is, the best player available for a team that is most likely starting from scratch is the best option.
Of course, the simpler way of getting young talent is by getting it through the lottery. Getting that Brooklyn pick in the Kyrie Irving deal was a great failsafe for if and when LeBron skips town.
Next is addressing who should be traded.
Cleveland’s uncertain draft pick situation from now until 2020 should also push them towards a rebuild. The team traded their first-round pick this year to the Lakers at the deadline when they acquired Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. Next year, they will have to forfeit their first-round pick to the Hawks if they finish outside of the bottom ten. Those protections will roll over to the next year if the Cavs finish in the bottom ten.
Given that the roster isn’t all that impressive outside of LeBron, that would be the best way to go. While the Cavaliers aren’t going to get any value out of Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, and Jordan Clarkson, there are two players who definitely could: Kevin Love and George Hill.
Let’s start with Love. Love will not get back the same value that Cleveland gave up to acquire him, but he’s still a proven commodity at 29 years old who should fetch something back if Cleveland decides to trade him. Love has made the All-Star team over his last two seasons and has done all that Cleveland has asked of him since being traded to the team back in 2014, like him or not.
How much he can fetch back is another story. Rumor has it that the Cavs have dangled Love along with the Nets pick for a star, but no one has bitten on it. Love won’t fetch a star, but he could fetch young assets from a team looking to make a win-now move. He won’t bring back a King’s ransom, but he can bring back something.
Then there’s Hill. If Hill has any interested parties this summer, it may stem from his contract rather than his services. Hill will be on the books for $19 million next season, but the following season, his contract is only guaranteed for $1 million. Now, Cleveland could just wait until next year then waive him, and no one would fault them for that. It would heavily reduce the payroll for a team that, even without LeBron James, is playing with fire with the luxury tax this summer.
Or, they could get an asset(s) out of him. Teams that may want to avoid the luxury tax next year or go after a marquee free agent would salivate for a contract like Hill’s. If the Cavs play their cards right, they could sell Hill’s contract to the highest bidder.
Whether or not they keep Hill will all depend on how Cleveland sees its roster’s future. The team still has Rodney Hood’s restricted free agency this summer, and the team reportedly hopes to keep Nance Jr long-term. If avoiding the luxury tax is what they want more than anything during the rebuild, then keeping Hill is the best option.
That transitions to the final aspect of Cleveland’s potential rebuild: Organizing the roster for the foreseeable future. Cleveland is not completely devoid of youth. They have Hood, Nance Jr., Cedi Osman, Ante Zizic, and even Clarkson, all of whom are young and may have their best days ahead of them. Hood and Clarkson did not pan out well in their half-season in Cleveland, but perhaps that could change if they’re put in the right situation.
It all starts with coaching. Tyronn Lue has done what he can since taking over as head coach in 2016. However, Lue was made head coach because that’s who LeBron wanted running the show. With the King out of the picture, perhaps it might be best to replace Lue with a coach better-suited to nurture youth.
One such name that comes to mind is David Blatt, who has worked with Zizic. Blatt was originally hired in 2014 because of his reputation as a developmental coach, but once LeBron came back, he and Blatt’s tense relationship led to Blatt’s firing half-way through his second season. If LeBron doesn’t return to the team, Blatt could use the strategy he planned to implement when he first arrived.
That is just one idea. The Cavs could keep Lue or they could look at other options, but Blatt would be intriguing. Skeptics would question why Cleveland would bring him back after such a bitter break-up not too long ago, but consider this: The Cavs hired Mike Brown back three years after firing him following the end of LeBron’s first run in Cleveland, so anything is possible.
Re-building is a bridge that Cleveland will have to cross when they come to it. Koby Altman must have known that it was a possibility when he took the reins as general manager last year. The situation he’s found himself in isn’t as hopeless as many have pegged it out to be, but the young GM will have plenty of work to do this summer.