Competing for a low playoff seed is an oft-maligned goal in the NBA. Pundits and fans will almost always call for a rebuild if a team is seemingly heading towards the dreaded 7-11 seed in their conference.
There are a valiant few that will drown out the noise and view any playoff berth as a success. These franchises are usually in the midst of an extended playoff drought, a young team looking for proof of progress or an old team with too much pride.
This season, the Western Conference will feature a large number of franchises that will feel as if they have failed without a playoff berth.
There are, of course, only eight spots available, and those spots begin to fill up very quickly when looking at the list of teams who will be vying for them. The Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets and Jazz are considered by most to be bona fide locks. The Warriors still have a perennial MVP candidate and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Then there are the Blazers, who seem to always manage to win five more games than they’re expected to and are coming off a Western Conference Finals appearance.
This would leave only one spot for the following four teams that seem eager to chase late-April basketball: Spurs, Mavericks, Pelicans, Kings.
Those four fall across all areas of the low-playoff seed spectrum. The Spurs are trying to maintain a 22-year playoff streak, while the Kings are trying to break a 13-year drought. The Mavericks and Pelicans both are led by players pinned as future superstars and feature a deep roster with veteran talent that they hope will be enough to mobilize a next step.
Barring a seismic injury or collapse, three of those teams will not make the playoffs. Let’s take a look at how each of them could win this battle, starting at the most likely to win that spot and working down.
San Antonio Spurs
Death, Taxes and the Spurs making the playoffs, right? Last season, the Spurs clawed their way to 48 wins and once again made the tournament. They did so on the back of a bench that blitzed teams all season long, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per 100 possessions when both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge were on the bench, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Spurs also were elite from deep last season, hitting 40.1 percent of their three-point attempts throughout the year. While this number remained relatively unchanged for each lineup, the frequency at which they attempted these shots jumped whenever both DeRozan and Aldridge sat, per Cleaning the Glass.
It will be interesting to see if the Spurs can keep up the production from both the bench and from beyond the arc this season. Davis Bertans, a valuable reserve who shot 44 percent from deep, is now in Washington. He will be tough to replace, but coach Gregg Popovich has a track record of maximizing his talent.
There is also the return of Dejounte Murray, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Murray, an All-Defensive Second Team selection in 2017-18, could help shore up a defense that slipped all the way to 20th in the NBA last season.
There is some mild concern here that the playoff streak could be in jeopardy. The Spurs outscored opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions when Bertans was on the court, per Cleaning the Glass. DeRozan and Aldridge continue to age, and if their production slips it might be too much for the bench make up.
That said, it still would seem foolish to bet against the Spurs. If the defense rebounds to a Spurs-ian level, it could more than offset the slight dip in three-point accuracy we might see this season.
The Mavericks will enter the season with one of the more intriguing rosters in the league. There is the precocious Luka Doncic, who could be the cornerstone of this franchise for years to come. Kristaps Porzingis is also in tow and will be playing real basketball for the first time since just before the All-Star break in 2018.
Last season, the Mavericks stumbled to the finish line after trading multiple contributors for an injured Porzingis, finishing 33-49. Now with the Latvian big man healthy – and veteran difference makers like Seth Curry and Delon Wright in the fold – the expectations have rightfully risen.
Much of the Mavericks’ success this season will come down to the health of Porzingis. Before the injury, he was scoring 22.7 points and grabbing 6.6 rebounds per game with the Knicks, while shooting nearly 40 percent from deep and providing elite rim protection. That skill set is rare, and him finding his form will both solidify a creaky defense and open up a clogged offense.
Doncic will be the first to welcome a second option like Porzingis. After the trade last season, Luka’s usage shot up to around 35 percent, and his shooting percentages cratered as a result. With a better roster around him, the 6-foot-7 point forward should find more holes in opposing defenses.
The virtuoso talent flashed by Doncic last season has many predicting a sophomore year leap. This leap could be amplified by improved roster, as Doncic may be able to increase both his raw production and efficiency.
The Mavericks lacked in both shooting and playmaking outside of Doncic last season. Seth Curry could give a nice jolt to their 34.9 percent three-point shooting, and Delon Wright will bring rock solid point guard play.
Outside of the big names and new additions, the Mavericks will also look for internal improvements from the likes of Jalen Brunson and Maxi Kleber. Particularly Brunson, who enters his second season after a summer spent training with the USA Select team .
It is clear the Mavericks will house a better team this season; the question is whether that improvement will be enough for them to chase a playoff seed. If they do find themselves in that position, it will likely be on the back of a sophomore year leap from Doncic and a fully healthy Porzingis. Those two “what ifs” panning out for Dallas, plus the improved roster on the margins, could make for a feisty team in April.
The Kings bring back nearly every contributor from last season in their quest to snap a 13-year streak of lottery participation. De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield are coming off career years. Marvin Bagley III had a promising showing with the USA select team this summer, and Bogdan Bogdanovic showed promise win his Serbian team action as well.
Fox holds the key to the Kings’ future. He is the face of the team and one of the most exciting players in the league. His ability to grab a rebound and beat all five of his opponents to the other basket is reminiscent of prime John Wall or Russell Westbrook. The Kings were about six points per 100 possessions better with Fox on the court, per Cleaning the Glass.
He is still only 21, and him continuing his trajectory towards elite point guard will go a long way in keeping this team competitive. He had a nice summer practicing with the USA National Team before deciding to head home just before the tournament began.
Buddy Hield quietly made the seventh most three-pointers in a season ever last year, behind only four Stephen Curry seasons, and both James Harden and Paul George in 2018-19. He will turn 27 this season, and it’s possible that last season will go down as his best ever. Hield getting as close as he can to replicating that production will be necessary for the Kings’ playoff hopes.
The Kings’ wing rotation is deeper than last year with the addition of Trevor Ariza. Bogdanovic is 27 but entering only his third NBA season. His electric World Cup performance has inspired hopes of a big season off the bench. Harrison Barnes will likely man the starting role, and he is coming off his best shooting season as a pro.
The frontcourt is improved with the upgrade from Willie Cauley-Stein to Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon brings veteran defense and better spacing at the center position, and should be a better fit next to Bagley. Bagley is another who showed promise over the summer with the USA Select Team, giving credence to the projection of a sophomore year leap from the bouncy power forward.
The Kings lack playmaking outside of Fox. Cory Joseph will take backup point guard duties, but he does not bring the shot-creating ability that the Kings may need in the minutes Fox sits. Harry Giles and Richaun Holmes both showed flashes last year and could make for serviceable frontcourt reserves.
The Kings should be better a team this season. Internal improvements from the young players and a slight bench upgrade might be all it takes to get above the .500 mark. Slightly above .500 may not be enough realize the playoff dream however, as it took 48 wins for the Spurs to get in last season.
To make it to that level, it may take another slight jump from Fox and large improvements from both Bagley and Bogdanovic. The improvements would also have to come with sustained production from Hield. There is also the unknown effect that new coach Luke Walton will have on the team. If his free-flowing offense open things up a little more in the half-court, the Kings could be in the race at the end of the season.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are almost a completely new basketball team. Jrue Holiday returns as the team’s captain and best player. His ability to play both on and off the ball make him an ideal fit next to first overall pick Zion Williamson. The bundle of players received in the Anthony Davis trade will also make this roster deeper than in years past.
Williamson is the crown jewel here. His all-world athleticism, solid ball-handling, feel for the game and limitless motor combine to make him one of the best prospects of the 21st century. That said, there are still concerns about his shooting and the Pelicans’ ability to space the floor around him.
Despite that, he should make an immediate impact in transition for a team that will run as much as possible under coach Alvin Gentry. His athleticism and quick feet also have him slated as a plus-defender right out of the gate.
Holiday will bring his usual elite defense and playmaking to this group. The Pelicans collapsed whenever Holiday sat last season, per Cleaning the Glass. His shooting slipped to 33 percent from deep last season, and an improvement there would add some much needed breathing room to the Pelicans offense.
Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram will also play pivotal roles after coming over from Los Angeles. There has been particular noise around Ball’s improved shooting out of Pelicans camp. He will most likely be given the backup point guard role behind Holiday.
The Pelicans are also banking on improved three-point accuracy from Ingram, who fell to 33 percent from deep after shooting 40 percent the year before. Ingram showed flashes of playmaking with the Lakers, but also displayed a penchant for contested mid-range jumpers. That will need to be rectified for Ingram to take the next step this season.
The Pelicans did well in free agency to bring in helpful veterans in JJ Redick and Derrick Favors. Redick will give the Pelicans an elite shooter to space the floor, and someone who could develop a two-man dribble hand-off game with Williamson. Favors will provide rim protection and a lob threat at center to pair next to the rookie.
It is nearly impossible to project how the Pelicans will perform next season. The height of their ceiling will come down to how quickly Williamson can acclimate to the NBA. Ingram and Ball will also need to take a step forward for this team to reach their full potential. They may struggle to score in the half-court, especially early in the season, but the fury they could unleash in transition will make them entertaining to watch.
Everything will need to go right for the Pelicans to make the final eight. Even then, they will likely need help by a collapse from a team in front of them.
While the most likely playoff scenario seems like the seven aforementioned teams plus one of these four, anything can happen in the NBA. The Warriors and Blazers may just be one injury away from sliding down a tier. The Timberwolves could be a sleeper to enter this race if they stay healthy and get a rejuvenated Andrew Wiggins.
The Western Conference will be a bloodbath as usual, and at least three teams will come away from the wreckage with hung heads as they trek to the lottery.
It will be exciting to watch it play out.
NBA Daily: Hield, Kings Both Have Room To Bargain
Buddy Hield understandably feels as if he’s worth more than the Kings have offered him, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth more than that to Sacramento, specifically. Douglas Farmer writes.
The emotion in Buddy Hield’s voice Wednesday night made it clear his words were not a negotiating ploy. When the fourth-year shooting guard said he would find someplace else to play if the Sacramento Kings did not properly respect him in contract negotiations, he was sincere.
“We’ll see if they’ll have me here,” Hield said. “Feels home to be here. I love Sacramento, but if they don’t feel I’m part of the core … if they don’t want to do it, then after that, I’ll look for somewhere else to go.”
Kings guard Buddy Hield is taking these contract talks very personally. In an emotional postgame interview, he talked about “finding another home” if the team doesn’t get a deal done by Monday’s deadline. pic.twitter.com/sEkJEZfNkS
— Jason Anderson (@JandersonSacBee) October 17, 2019
The Kings have until Monday to reach an agreement on a rookie-scale extension with Hield, who is eligible for a four-year deal north of $130 million or a designated-player extension of five years and $170 million.
But Hield may not be looking for those outlandish numbers. Per Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, Hield is looking for a contract of about $110 million, while Sacramento has offered only $90 million across four years.
“It’s not always about less than the max, it’s just something that’s reasonable and is not an insult,” Hield said. “If we respect each other on that level, we’ll come to that agreement.”
Hield shot 42.7 percent from deep last season on 7.9 attempts per game while averaging 20.7 points. He may not necessarily be worthy of a max contract, but his is a valued skill set in the modern NBA. Combine that with the weak 2020 free agent class, and Hield has some ground to dig in upon at the bargaining table. If an extension is not agreed to, Hield would not be free to go wherever he wishes next summer, but he would be free to pursue that which might force the Kings’ hand as a restricted free agent.
Of wings expected to hit the market next summer, Hield would be joined by Otto Porter, Joe Harris and, possibly, Hield’s current teammate, Bogdan Bogdanović (also restricted). It really could be that shallow of a shooting pool. Gordon Hayward is likely to pick up his $31.2 million player option with the Boston Celtics, while DeMar DeRozan and the San Antonio Spurs are reportedly in discussions. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert has already signed a new deal with the Nets.
That market vacuum could drive up Hield’s summertime price, though Sacramento could still match any offer. If the Kings would match ties into the exact reasons they are risking alienating a core player in the first place. Sacramento has returned to respectability — both in the standings and in perceived approach — by building through the draft. But their bill is almost due.
Hield, Bogdanović, point guard De’Aaron Fox and forward Marvin Bagley are all approaching paydays in the next few seasons. The Kings are almost certainly going to make massive offers to Fox and Bagley in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and those contracts will tie up Sacramento’s books for much of the 2020s. The additional $5 million per year sought by Hield could preclude other moves when combined with Fox’s and Bagley’s deals.
The Kings’ ground is strengthened by holding Bogdanović’s restricted rights, as well. If they lose Hield, they will still have a starting-quality shooting guard to play alongside Fox in Bogdanović. He may not have hit 602 threes in his first three seasons in the league as Hield has, but Bogdanović is currently at 263 through two years, hardly anything to readily dismiss.
Even though Bogdanović will not cost as much as Hield — pondering a $51.4 million, four-year extension — keeping both pieces of the shooting duo may prove too costly for Sacramento owner Vivek Ranadivé. At which point, Hield’s raw emotions Wednesday night may foreshadow Ranadivé’s decision.
Where could Hield go, if for no other reason than to drive up his price?
Any discussion of 2020 free agents must include the Atlanta Hawks, who could have as much as $79.1 million in cap space. Hield would fit both their roster timeline and its general construction, though they did just snag both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in the 2019 draft. Hield’s minutes would come from the same pool as theirs, making this pairing a bit redundant.
There would be no such conflict with the Dallas Mavericks, whose centerpieces currently miss a wing with range from deep. The Mavericks would lack the space to sign Hield if Tim Hardaway Jr. opts into his $19 million player option, but that could simply precede a sign-and-trade with the Kings. There are certainly ways to make the space necessary should Dallas owner Mark Cuban want to.
If Hield wanted to be a part of another group that is “getting the team back to where it needs to be,” the Memphis Grizzlies would be a situation very similar to Sacramento’s. Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. will see his first big contract begin in 2022 and this year’s No. 2 overall pick Ja Morant should follow that trend a year later. The Grizzlies, however, do not have an exceptional shooter to pair with their young duo. If nothing else, Memphis could drive up the price on Hield to compromise the Kings’ cap space moving forward.
Those possibilities, among others, give Hield practical reason to stand his ground for what he feels he’s worth, while Sacramento’s long view may make it think twice. As emotional and blunt as he was, Hield understands these realities.
“Some people will get the max and some people won’t get the max,” he said. “That’s how it works.”
The Divide On Analytics
The disconnect in the understanding and use of analytics is widespread in today’s basketball landscape. Unearthing the reasoning behind these numbers will not only change how we talk about them, but also revolutionize how we look at the game in the future. Drew Mays writes.
Once upon a time, during a routine, regular season game, a well-regarded shooter was left alone for a corner three. Iman Shumpert, then with Cleveland, rushed to a hard closeout. Seeing Shumpert off balance, the shooter blew by him.
After the play, LeBron James criticized Shumpert for his overaggression. Shump, understandably, was confused – he’s a shooter! Shooters need to get run off the line!
LeBron responded that from that particular corner, the shooter only shot 35 percent – much worse than his overall three-point percentage that garnered his reputation. Accordingly, LeBron would have rather Shumpert closed under control, baiting the shooter into hoisting from a spot he doesn’t like, rather than letting him drive towards the rim with a full head of steam.
This simple knowledge of percentages has merged into the greater conversation of advanced statistics and analytics. Before these numbers were readily available, a respected jump shooter would never be left alone.
Now, the word “analytics” has transformed from a description into a clustered and contentious field. Even though – especially for those of us without data-processing backgrounds and math degrees – the above illustrates what analytics are and what they provide at their core: Information to make decisions on the micro-level and a tool to inform philosophies on the macro-level.
Dean Oliver and John Hollinger are the founding fathers of the basketball analytics movement. Both statisticians, they eventually parlayed their statistical methods and models into NBA front office jobs. These two paved the way for more recent data savants, such as Seth Partnow and Ben Falk, and their positions with professional basketball teams.
In August, Oliver was hired by the Washington Wizards to be a full-time assistant coach. Falk left the NBA a few years ago and has since started his website, Cleaning the Glass. Partnow and Hollinger both departed from their NBA jobs this year, returning to the media as staff writers for The Athletic.
Selfishly, the advantage of having Falk, Partnow and Hollinger back in the public sphere is the access we have to their brains. Partnow’s latest work is particularly geared towards analytics, and Falk and Hollinger’s are always rooted in them. Reading their work will increase your understanding of how basketball works in its current form and help develop your ideas about where it’s going.
The issue is this: Smart guys talking about numbers seems inaccessible…no matter how accessible it actually is.
Despite the talent of these three – and of all the other mathematicians writing in today’s media – there’s still a misunderstanding between those who wield statistics and those who don’t. Many times, even the players are part of the separation.
On Tuesday, Bulls guard Zach LaVine said this to the Chicago Sun-Times:
“I grew up being a Michael Jordan, Kobe [Bryant] fan… I think the mid-range is a lost art now because everyone is moving towards the threes and the analytics. I understand that because how it looks and how it sounds like it makes sense, but sometimes there’s nothing better than putting the ball in your best playmaker’s hands and letting him get the shot he needs rather than the one you want.”
This led to a revival of the discussion on ESPN’s The Jump. Rachel Nichols seemed to agree with LaVine in part, saying, “two is greater than zero.” Kevin Arnovitz followed with points important for our purpose, calling the death of the mid-range a “false dichotomy.”
“No one is saying, if a guy is wide-open at 19-feet, dribble backwards and take a shot… for Zach LaVine, it’s all about impulse control,” Arnovitz continued.
Impulse control in the sense that deciding when to take a mid-range shot is almost all of the battle. Context matters.
Matt Moore of The Action Network used The Jump’s clip to chime in. Moore tweeted, and then Kevin Durant responded.
The abbreviated version of the Moore-Durant thread is this: Durant, a historically great mid-range jump shooter, argues the side of, well, a historically great jump shooter. He talks about taking open shots regardless of where they come and a player’s confidence and feel.
Moore counters using the math. The refreshing conversation ends when another Twitter user points out that, since the analytics movement, James Harden’s mid-range attempts have dipped drastically. Durant admits he didn’t realize this.
The most telling part of the misunderstandings surrounding analytics came from Durant. He said, “I don’t view the game as math…I get what you’re saying but we just have 2 different views of the game. Analytics is a good way to simplify things.”
And that, folks, is the rub. That is the separation between fans, players and the John Hollingers of the world – the assumption that statisticians use advanced metrics and therefore see basketball as a math problem, while everyone else analyzes by merely watching the game (because of course, watching the games inherently equals reliable analysis).
But analytics isn’t a high-concept way to digitize the game and ignore the “eye test” Twitter fingers love to cite; they’re mathematical truths used to assess basketball success. Often, the air surrounding analytics is that it’s like me, an English major, taking freshman-year Calculus – impossible to understand. Because again, smart people explaining numbers can be daunting, even when they do it perfectly.
Truthfully, analytics are just more precise ways of discerning what happened in a basketball game. As Ben Taylor explains in one of his breakdowns, Chauncey Billups shooting 43 percent is more effective than Ben Wallace shooting 51 percent for a season. Billups is providing threes and making more free throws at a better rate, so even with Wallace’s higher raw field goal percentage, he’d need to be more accurate from two-point range to match Billups’ efficiency.
You don’t need to even study actual numbers to see why these statistical categories make the game easier to understand.
But, and this is another oft-forgotten point, these calculations are useless without context. In 2015-16, a Kawhi Leonard mid-range – when contextualized with qualifiers like time left on the shot clock – was a good shot. He right around 50 percent from 10-16 feet, so the advantage of taking a three over a two would be offset by Leonard’s 50 percent accuracy. During the same season, Kobe Bryant shot 41 percent from 10-16 feet. A Kobe baseline fadeaway with 14 seconds on the shot clock and a help defender coming from the high side is a bad mid-range shot.
Kevin Durant shot 58 percent from two last season. He shot 54 percent from 3-10 feet, 51 percent from 10-16 feet and 53.5 percent from 16 feet out to the three-point line.
Meanwhile, from those same distances, Zach LaVine shot 26 percent, 30 percent and 38 percent.
A mid-range jumper from Kevin Durant is usually a good shot. A mid-range jumper from Zach LaVine probably isn’t.
So, is the mid-range dead? Not completely. The last few champions rostered mid-range experts (Kawhi, Durant, Kyrie Irving), and some of the last remaining teams last season had one as well (Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum).
Does a correlation then exist between mid-range proficiency and winning titles? Again, that’s doubtful. There’s a correlation between great players and titles, and great players usually have the mid-range game in their arsenal. That’s part of what makes them great players: the lack of holes in their games.
The discrepancies in Durant and LaVine’s two-point numbers can be found in talent level and the quality of looks. Both affect the percentages. Again, context matters.
To Durant’s point on Twitter: It is, on some level, a matter of practice. If LaVine keeps putting in the work, he can become a better mid-range shooter, making those looks more efficient.
But as a starting base, we’d say it’s better for LaVine and players like him to not settle for mid-range twos. We’re not too upset if Durant does it.
Even in the age of analytics, basketball will always in part be a matter of feel. It will always be scrutinized by the eyes. And that’s okay – because advanced statistics give context to the effectiveness of those feelings being acted on.
Maybe the point is this: If the shot clock is winding down and you have the ball out top with a defender locked in front of you and have to hoist a shot…don’t take the long two. Please shoot the three.
It’s more effective. The math says so.
NBA Daily: Already, Zion Williamson Has Importance
The preseason has made clear that Zion Williamson will be an abject positive throughout his rookie campaign. But the extent of his success remains to be seen and Williamson could drastically alter a loaded Western Conference playoff race.
Zion Williamson will be the best rookie in basketball this season, and it won’t be particularly close. The New Orleans Pelicans star is considered a generational prospect for a reason: The league has literally never before seen a player with his combination of size, strength and explosive athleticism.
But just because Williamson is a truly unparalleled physical specimen doesn’t mean his acclimation to basketball at its highest level is poised to be seamless. His lack of a reliable jumper was occasionally exploited at Duke and will allow far superior NBA defenders to lay off him, guarding against forays to the paint. He’s not ready to function as anything close to a primary ball-handler, further cramping the floor for a Pelicans team short on shooting. He should be a plus defender at the very least in time but is bound to go through the same struggles of schematic understanding and real-time recognition that plagues all first-year players.
But through four preseason games, Williamson has been so utterly dominant as to render those relative concerns almost completely moot. He’s averaging 23.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals in exhibition play so far, shooting a mind-bending 71.4 percent from the floor and attempting 8.0 free throws despite playing just 27.2 minutes per game. Williamson has a 34.2 PER, and his plus-28.8 net rating leads New Orleans by a wide margin, according to RealGM.
The normal caveats apply, of course. Preseason competition is barely a reasonable facsimile of what Williamson will face during the regular season, when opponents will employ their best players and lineups, play with consistent energy and engagement and, maybe most importantly, gear their strategy around limiting his effectiveness. He certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie whose stellar exhibition performance failed to carry over to the 82-game grind.
But Williamson has nevertheless shown enough during these glorified scrimmages to expect him to be a true impact player from the jump. Alvin Gentry has used him most as a dependent offensive weapon thus far, taking advantage of Williamson’s inherent physical trump cards by getting him the ball in space via rolls to the rim and letting him attack from the corner with a live dribble. He’s been especially unstoppable in the open floor and semi-transition, sprinting the wing for highlight-reel finishes and catching the defense on its heels with quick-hitting dribble hand-offs.
These aren’t especially innovative offensive concepts and teams will know they’re coming throughout the regular season. Williamson is just so much more athletically gifted than his defenders that, more often than not, they’ll be left helpless to stop him regardless.
Williamson won’t maintain his incredible blend of production and efficiency during the regular season. Only four players in league history have ever scored at least 20 points per game while shooting 60 percent or better from the field, per Basketball Reference. Williamson may very well eventually join that exclusive list of all-time greats, but counting on him to do so in 2019-20 only goes to compound outlandish expectations that could lead to an unfair appraisal of his debut campaign.
Unless, naturally, Williamson proves so good that he leads the rebuilt Pelicans to the playoffs in perhaps the most stacked Western Conference ever.
The Western Conference’s top six of the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, in some order, seems clear. The Portland Trail Blazers, despite some quiet churn in the middle of the roster, deserve the same benefit of the doubt the San Antonio Spurs earned years ago.
That’s eight teams vying for eight slots, before accounting for the intrigue and unknown of the Dallas Mavericks. The Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves have internal hopes of competing for the postseason, too.
Needless to say, the odds aren’t good for New Orleans, a team that underwent as much turnover as any in basketball during an extremely active offseason. Continuity of personnel and playing style is often the difference between a few extra wins and losses, but the Pelicans have neither in a season where they’ll try to force themselves into the postseason conversation.
The presence of a singular player like Williamson allows for the possibility that it might not matter.
Luka Doncic is coming off one of the most impressive rookie seasons of the decade, and Kristaps Porzingis, even 20 months removed from his last time taking the floor, is the living embodiment of game-changing two-way potential. De’Aaron Fox might be the most underrated player in basketball at 21, while the Kings mitigated the need for Marvin Bagley to pop this season by rounding out the roster with solid veterans. Karl-Anthony Towns will put up monster numbers for a Timberwolves team that’s finally and whole-heartedly embracing tenets of the modern game under Ryan Saunders and Gersson Rosas.
For the most part, though, we know the variance between those ceilings and floors this season and, by proxy, how high they could potentially lift their teams. Williamson is a different dynamic altogether. The preseason has laid bare that he’ll immediately be a positive player on offense, but there are many degrees to the extent of his possible effectiveness.
Will Williamson serve as a less-efficient, lower-usage version of the highlight-reel player he’s been in the preseason? Might this current level of play be his basic norm, with nights of inconsistency sprinkled in between? Or could he grow significantly as the season goes on, shouldering more ball-handling responsibilities and increasing his defensive awareness – unlocking small-ball lineups in which Gentry plays him at center – as the calendar flips to the new year and winter turns to spring?
It would be foolish to put a cap on Williamson’s success this season, just like it would be foolish to expect him to be an All-Star. But that gulf between wildly positive outcomes of his rookie season puts the Pelicans in a better position to pounce when an incumbent inevitably falls from the pack than any other team entering the season with long-shot playoff hopes.
Williamson definitely won’t be the best player in the Western Conference in 2019-20, maybe not even the best player on his team. But in terms of an effect on the playoff race, though, not a single player’s performance stands to loom larger.