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NBA Daily: The Western Playoff Bubble Needs No Play-In

The NBA has suggested a play-in tournament, but one already essentially exists in the West, Douglas Farmer argues.

Douglas Farmer

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If the NBA’s latest ponderings become reality, this year’s Western Conference drama would peak with a play-in tournament to close the regular season and kickstart the playoffs. By no means does the West need to wait for the 2022 possibility, though. This season always expected to pit a handful of contenders against each other for six months to earn the final berths in the playoffs.

Five weeks ago those contenders were projected to be a set of known names. Outside of the LA-centric title contenders and the seemingly-known playoff standards (the Denver Nuggets, the Utah Jazz, the Houston Rockets and the Portland Blazers), the final two playoff spots figured to be a fight among teams arrayed across the competitive spectrum:

— The Golden State Warriors coming off their title window, waiting for Klay Thompson’s return
— The Oklahoma City Thunder with a rebuilt roster around Chris Paul
— The San Antonio Spurs proving ever-reliable
— The Sacramento Kings looking to make good on their surprising run last season
— The Dallas Mavericks integrating two young superstars
— The Minnesota Timberwolves claiming a new ethos could yield sustainable success
— The New Orleans Pelicans with or without Zion Williamson

That was just a month and three days ago. Then, the second night of the season saw the Phoenix Suns run the Kings off the floor, 124-95. The Blazers fell apart in the fourth quarter against the Nuggets. The Thunder did the same in Utah. By the time the Warriors were blown out a night later, it was clear: The West’s bubble would not be made up of those expected in the preseason.

The Mavericks have ridden a high-powered offense into the top tier, a near-lock for the playoffs. That has left Phoenix, Minnesota, Sacramento and New Orleans in the No. 7-10 slots, the literal playoff fringe, and the possible spots for a play-in tournament in the future. (Sorry, San Antonio, but the current 2-8 stretch renders you more in line with the Memphis Grizzlies than the Pelicans, even if one game ahead of the former and tied with the latter.)

The Suns and Wolves are both at .500, as of Monday, with the Kings only two games behind that. New Orleans’ 1-6 start has held its record back to 6-11, but it is clear the final spots in the West will demand a .500 finish or close to it. In practical terms, this quartet needs to win against the Eastern Conference (of these four, only the Pelicans currently have a losing record across the Mississippi River), beat the Warriors, Blazers, Thunder and Grizzlies and lose to the West’s best.

That will leave each other. In other words, a tournament of sorts.

Minnesota, Phoenix and Sacramento all play each other four times this year, while each plays New Orleans only three times. Odd, perhaps, given each team plays everyone in the West four times with four exceptions. Three of the Pelicans’ reduced slates come from this subset, meaning they play more games against the West’s best.

The inverse of that could give the Kings an advantage in this race, getting one fewer game against both the Rockets and the Jazz, the best pairing within this quartet’s rarest opponents.

To date, the Suns have split two games with the Kings, beaten the Timberwolves and lost to the Pelicans. The rest of the games between each other have yet to be played. The tournament has yet to get rolling.

The NBA’s intentions are valid. A one-game playoff holds more drama than these season-long series. The play-in game between Denver and Minnesota following the 2018 season brought heights of intensity not seen during the regular season, even between two teams who already were not fond of each other.

And establishing a demarcation line between the No. 6 playoff seed and No. 7 will have effects beyond the playoff fringe.

But the actual play-in tournament already exists on the Western bubble this season. Each time Minnesota faces Sacramento (Dec. 26), it will have a chance to both take a step toward the playoffs and to knock back a challenger. When the Kings first meet the Pelicans (Jan. 4), Williamson might finally be playing and pushing New Orleans past its miserable start. When the Pelicans face the Suns (Dec. 5), this year’s two upstarts will look to prove who has the brighter future. When the Suns face the Timberwolves (Dec. 9), it is more than a Ricky Rubio reunion.

These moments may not elicit headlines or national ratings, but their effects on the standings will be tangible, nonetheless. These will be the nights that determine who slips into the playoffs and who crosses their fingers in the lottery.

At least until the NBA brings the headlines and ratings in a few years.

Contributing writer to Basketball Insiders, based in Minneapolis since 2017 with previous stops in Dallas and Los Angeles. Went 32-of-40 at the backyard free throw line this past Christmas. Twitter: @D_Farmer

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Legacy

Looking For A Few Great Voices!

From time to time we have open chairs at Basketball Insiders for writers looking to gain experience, grow their brand and to be part of an aggressive up-tempo content team.

Basketball Insiders

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From time to time we have open chairs at Basketball Insiders for writers looking to gain experience, grow their brand and to be part of an aggressive up-tempo content team.

We are considering adding new voices for the 2020-21 NBA Season, and what we are looking for is very specific.

Here are the criteria:
– A body of professional work that reflects an understanding of the NBA and basketball.
– Must live within 30 minutes of an NBA team.
– Must be willing to write two to three times per week on various topics as assigned.
– Must write in AP style and meet assigned deadlines.
– Be willing to appear in Podcasts and Video projects as needed and scheduled.
– Have a strong understanding of social media and its role in audience development.
– Be willing to work in a demanding virtual team environment.

Some things to know and consider:
– We are not hiring full-time people. If you are seeking a full-time gig, this is not that.
– This will be a low or non-compensation role initially. We need to understand your value and fit.
– We have a long track record of creating opportunities for those that excel in our program.
– This will be a lengthy interview and evaluation process. We take this very seriously, so should you.
– If you are not committed to being great, this is not the right situation for you.

If you are interested, please follow these specific instructions, Drop us an e-mail with:

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The NBA Market You Live Near:

And Why We Should Consider You:

We do not need your resume, but a few links to work you have done under the above information would be helpful.

Please send all of this to: openings2021@basketballinsiders.com

 

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Headlines

#17 – Aleksej Pokusevski – Oklahoma City Thunder

David Yapkowitz

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With the 17th pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Oklahoma City Thunder select Aleksej Pokusevski from Serbia. The Thunder completed a trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves to acquire the pick.

Pokusevski is a long term project, but one that has has an intriguing skillset. A 7-footer with good speed and quickness, Pokusevski plays like a wing and can pass like a guard. But, to truly thrive at the next level, Pokusevski will need to put on some serious weight.

Again, he’s a project. But Pokusevski’s ceiling is sky-high. And, with a rebuild ahead of them, the Thunder have more than enough time to work with him and ensure he reaches it.

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Mock Drafts

2020 NBA Mock Draft – The Final 60-Pick Mock

What a long and winding road the 20201 NBA Draft has been. While this draft cycle has seen its ups and down, the moment of truth if finally upon us.

Steve Kyler

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What a long and winding road the 20201 NBA Draft has been. While this draft cycle has seen its ups and down, the moment of truth if finally upon us.

Here is a final look at the 2020 Draft, and how it may play out in this final 60-pick Mock Draft of the 20202 NBA Draft process:

 

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