The 2019 NBA Draft is rapidly approaching. It is now a mere 19 days away and, as is often the case, a lot is left to be sorted out in the final three weeks.
While all teams must make a final decision on each of their picks in the draft, there are a few decisions that are holding up other teams from fleshing out a singular draft strategy.
Let’s examine three keys to the 2019 NBA Draft.
Key 1: The Knicks must make the first tough decision
The Knicks hold the first key to the 2019 NBA Draft in that they are the first team that will have a tough decision to make. The first two selections are mostly set in stone. And despite R.J. Barrett being the (nearly) consensus third best player, the Knicks have displayed at least a willingness to explore other options. In addition to Barrett, the Knicks have been linked to Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver and Duke’s Cam Reddish with the third overall pick.
When considering who a team might select, it is more complicated than selecting the most talented player. It’s also more complicated than taking the best fit, too. Front offices have their own preferences pertaining to style of play, schools and/or conferences from which the players hail. Additionally, some front offices are more prone to trade up or down in the draft based on their appetite for risk. So let’s quickly review the past draft picks of New York’s front office, which is led by their President of Basketball Operations, Steve Mills, and General Manager, Scott Perry.
Prior to hiring Perry, Mills was the Knicks’ General Manager from 2014-2017. In his tenure as the team’s GM, Mills’ oversaw the selection of Cleanthony Early, Thanasis Anteokounmpo, Kristaps Porzingis, Frank Ntilikina, Damyean Dotson and Ognjen Jaramaz.
Scott Perry has served as a basketball executive in the front offices of the Pistons, Sonics/Thunder, Magic, Kings and Knicks. Over the course of his more than 10+ seasons in the NBA, Perry has a number of draft day wins like Tayshaun Prince, Kevin Durant, Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo (although he blossomed after being traded from Orlando) and De’Aaron Fox.
He’s also had his share of less successful picks, including Rodney White (selected one pick before Joe Johnson), Darko Milicic (selected before Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony) and Greg Monroe (whose career started off strongly, but who was also selected before Paul George and Gordon Hayward).
Together the pair selected Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robison in 2018.
What trends can we identify from their past picks? From a personnel standpoint, Perry clearly likes dynamic lead guards – he selected Knight, Oladipo, Payton, Fox and Ntilikina, all of whom were drafted as point guards and are at least 6-foot-3. If the Knicks landed the second pick, Ja Morant might be their guys given Perry’s past. But since he’s strongly being considered by the Grizzlies, it looks like Morant is off the table.
What types of players does Mills prefer to draft? Mills hasn’t provided a clear or specific strategy. Rather, he has taken a few swings of the bat in his limited time in charge of the Knicks. Mills is clearly unafraid of taking a chance on a relatively unproven player – with Porzingis (who worked out pretty well save for the long-term relationship) and Ntilikina (who is a trade candidate in the lead-up to the 2019 NBA Draft) both being mostly unknown to U.S. fans.
And while the players Mills has proven to be unafraid of less proven players, Perry’s selections have largely hailed from major NCAA programs.
But Barrett, Culver and Reddish all project to be wings in the NBA, ranging in height from 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-8. And they are all from major NCAA programs. Therefore, there is no trend in either of their histories that helps identify which of the three they may be leaning toward.
With that being said, it might be in the Knicks’ best interest to explore trading back since their immediate future is more closely tied to free agency than it is to the draft. The Cleveland Cavaliers are reported to be highly interested in Barrett, and the Knicks could probably pry additional, valuable assets from them in a swap that would also have to include the fifth overall pick (thus, netting them Reddish or Culver, too).
They could try to exchange the third pick and some combination of Knox, Robinson and Dennis Smith Jr. for a superstar player like Bradley Beal or even Anthony Davis. But that would require a leap of faith the Knicks might not be quite ready to make – consider the fallout if they did so and no other stars followed.
Regardless of which direction they take, lots of other teams’ draft plans are tied to whatever the Knicks choose to do.
Presently, Basketball Insider’s 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft(5-28-19) projects the Knicks will select Barrett.
Key 2: The Lakers are in a similar situation to the Knicks
The Los Angeles Lakers have similar hopes of luring free agents to their roster this offseason. Despite all of the toxicity around the team, they are actually farther along in their quest to do so thanks to the presence of LeBron James on their roster.
But James’ presence also makes the Lakers appear more desperate, as well. After all, they are built around a 34-year old. And their remaining roster is mostly as follows: Lonzo Ball (21 years old), Kyle Kuzma (23), Brandon Ingram (21), Josh Hart (24), Moritz Wagner (22) and Isaac Bonga (19).
Notice anything similar about the aforementioned players? They’re all under 25 years-old, which means there is limited veteran know-how.
The Lakers need a lot of help, but one thing they don’t need more of is youth. It is a foregone conclusion that they will reengage the Pelicans in trade talks for Anthony Davis, using the fourth pick in the draft as part of their trade package.
While the Knicks can conceivably add the third overall pick to their roster and still attract two superstar free agents, the Lakers should do all they can to cash in the pick and a young asset or two in exchange for a more established talent, which would almost certainly catapult them into contention next season.
And if the Pelicans choose a different team as their trade partner (or decide to hang onto Davis), the Lakers should also reach out to the Wizards about Beal, Houston about Chris Paul and essentially any other team with an age-appropriate running mate for LeBron James (with a requisite amount of talent).
Presently, Basketball Insider’s 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft (5-28-19) projects that the Lakers will select Duke’s Cam Reddish with the fourth pick.
Key 3: Will the Celtics actually add three first-round picks to their roster?
The Celtics are the final piece to the first-round puzzle. They are at a bit of a crossroads in that both of their point guards could flee Boston (Kyrie Irving is rumored to prefer playing at either Barclays Center, Madison Square Garden or the Staples Center and Terry Rozier may want out of Boston, too).
But all is not lost. They still have Gordon Hayward, Al Horford (player option, which appears likely to be picked up), Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart all under contract through at least the end of next season.
They also possess the 14th, 20th, 22nd and 51st picks in the 2019 draft. And therein lies the problem.
Their core consists of a decent mix of youth and veteran talent. And while Coach Brad Stevens is thought to be an excellent leader, the team does not need to incorporate as many as four more rookies into their rotation.
The 51st pick could be used on a draft-and-stash player from overseas. But three first-round picks would require lot of attention and result in lots of teachable moments – which would likely distract them from their end-goal (e.g., an NBA Championship).
Fortunately for the Celtics, adding three first-round draft picks isn’t a detriment to all teams. As the draft approaches, the Celtics must diligently explore all their trade options. They must reach out to teams that may be interested in adding multiple first-rounders in exchange for one slightly higher lottery pick (than their existing 14thpick) – especially if there is one particular player with whom they become infatuated.
They must also interface with teams that might want to trade away a borderline star in exchange for current (and future) draft capital – keep in mind, the Celtics also possess the Grizzles top-six protected pick in 2020 (which becomes unprotected in 2021 if it doesn’t convey in 2020) which can also be included in a trade.
Presently, Basketball Insider’s 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft (5-28-19) projects that the Celtics will select Kentucky’s PJ Washington at 14, Maryland’s Bruno Fernando at 20, Washington’s Matisse Thybulle at 22 and Tennessee’s Jordan Bone at 51.
The NBA Draft is essentially the pseudo-start to free agency, with teams beginning to swap picks and players. There stands to be as much, if not more, action this year than ever before. And the three teams mentioned above – New York, Los Angeles and Boston – very well may be the most active.
Donovan Mitchell, Jazz Ready To Become Contenders
Can Donovan Mitchell do for the new-look Jazz what Dwyane Wade did for the 2006 Miami HEAT? Utah’s title hopes depend on it.
After a five-year run that saw two regular-season MVPs, a 73-win campaign and three NBA championships, Kevin Durant’s departure and Klay Thompson’s torn ACL has Golden State on the outside looking in. The Warriors will still make a playoff push, and should likely succeed, as a healthy Stephen Curry and reinvigorated Draymond Green can do that for you. But the title no longer runs through Oracle – and not just because they’re leaving Oakland.
Golden State coming up short didn’t just signal the end of a dynasty; it represented a power shift in the NBA. Their loss to Toronto was the first domino to fall over six weeks of player movement that saw six All-NBA members switch teams. The conventional wisdom of the last decade – that you needed three stars to win a ring – had suddenly unraveled and players began doubling up instead of tripling.
The starriest example comes from the Staples Center, where Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are on one side of the hallway, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis are on the other. On the whole, Los Angeles is now the overwhelming favorite to win the 2020 NBA Championship as Vegas puts the Clippers and Lakers at +350 and +400 respectively. Milwaukee, Houston and Philadelphia follow these two teams, with one boasting the reigning MVP and the others involved in splashy offseason moves.
There’s another sexy title pick, especially for those that consider themselves in tune with the NBA: the Utah Jazz. The additions of Mike Conley Jr. and Bojan Bogdanović give the Jazz the much-needed playmaking and shooting they’ve badly missed over the past two postseasons. With them in tow and Rudy Gobert owning the middle, Utah is only one development away from winning the West: Donovan Mitchell becoming the 2006 version of Dwyane Wade.
Mitchell and Wade are often linked and for good reason. They share sizes, athletic abilities and euro-steps. They were both thrust into scoring roles on playoff-ready teams as rookies, and both have now played for Team USA.
Wade isn’t just a comparison for Mitchell, he should be an aspiration as well.
Dwyane Wade’s arrival on the national scene came in his third season. He dominated the 2006 NBA Finals, bringing the HEAT back from 0-2 and giving Miami their first championship. While year three was impressive, his real breakout occurred the year before. In year two, Wade’s numbers looked like this:
24.1 points, 6.8 assists, 5.2 rebounds per game on 47.8/28.9/76.2, with an effective field goal percentage of .483.
Now, here’s Donovan Mitchell last year, in his sophomore season:
23.8 points, 4.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds per game on 43.2/36.2/80.6, with an effective field goal percentage of .493.
The scoring numbers are almost identical and Mitchell has already proven himself a better three-point shooter. The assist discrepancy is a product of Utah’s reliance on Mitchell to score, causing him to force shots often. Mitchell also started this past season poorly and after the first 33 contests of 2018-19, the athletic guard’s line sat at just 20.7 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game.
He played the next 44 games at a rate of 26.7 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game with 44.5/42/82.5 splits.
In 2005-06, Wade averaged 27.2 points, 6.7 assists, and 5.7 rebounds a night, all despite being a nonentity from three. That season is eerily similar to the back end of Mitchell’s second-season effort and it should give Jazz fans optimism that he can play at the same level in 2019-20.
Of course, the odds of doing so are in his favor. Conley is as steady as they get, even coming off a career-year in points per game and his highest assist totals since 2012-13. Despite turning 32 years-old in October, he remains an above-average defender. But, most importantly for Mitchell, he’s another ballhandler and playmaker.
Utah has run into a brick wall in Houston during the playoffs each of the last two seasons. While their gimmicky defense and failure to hit open looks contributed to this year’s loss, the overarching struggle was a complete inability, by anyone not named Donovan Mitchell, to create shots. Joe Ingles is serviceable as a third or fourth playmaker as he can attack switches and overzealous closeouts.
But if he’s your second-best playmaker, or becomes the first out of necessity, the offense is in huge trouble.
Simply put, Conley solves that problem. He’ll naturally take loads of pressure off Mitchell, who tied LeBron James with the seventh-highest usage rate at 31.6%. Conley also allows Mitchell to slide back to his natural off-ball role, letting him can catch and swing passes against rotating defenses or run more side pick and roll. Both of these actions get Mitchell opportunities away from the teeth of the defense, which can’t happen when he’s repeatedly forced to initiate offense out high.
Along with Bogdanović, Conley also solves addresses Utah’s often awkward floor spacing troubles. The Jazz spent the last two years with Ricky Rubio at point guard – defense and vision aside, he’s still a below-average shooter that the opposition can leave open during the most important moments. Conley and Bogdanović replacing Rubio and Derrick Favors enables Utah to put three shooters and plus-defenders around Mitchell while the always-effective Rudy Gobert screens or waits in the dunker’s spot.
The newly-added Jeff Green, a healthy Dante Exum and an improving Royce O’Neal round out a solid rotation group. The key, then, is Mitchell. The Jazz figure to remain a top-five defensive team even in a loaded Western Conference, and the offensive mentioned above will make huge strides. However, when April rolls around, the games slow down. Movement-centric offenses don’t always succeed, and defenses break down. To win in the postseason, franchises need to create one-on-one opportunities. Analytics that preach threes, free throws and layups get tossed out the window; the midrange is in play again.
It’s why Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard have dominated the postseason for years – they can score from all three levels.
Without a doubt, Mitchell has to be that player for Utah.
He’s the only player on their roster who can potentially match the star-power of other teams. If he regresses in 2019-20, the Jazz will fall victim to the same issues that sent them home the last two years. If he plateaus, they likely won’t have enough to overcome the top-half of the conference.
But, if Donovan Mitchell makes that leap, Utah will have a real chance to win the whole thing and bring their city its first NBA championship.
That sounds a lot like the 2006 HEAT.
Now, all they need is their Dwyane Wade.
NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Milwaukee Bucks
Basketball Insiders’ “Grading The Offseason” series moves along as Jordan Hicks discusses the offseason of the team that rosters the current NBA MVP.
One does not simply spell the name Giannis Antetokounmpo without at least looking it up first. Sure, you could get lucky the first time, but you’re lying to yourself if you think you won’t at least head over to Google to double-check.
Admittedly, a big thanks on our end will be sent towards our friends at Google for helping with the meat of the article. Obviously, Giannis hoisting the MVP award long after the dust of the 2018-19 season settled makes him the de-facto centerpiece when discussing his team and their offseason.
Yes, a case could be made for James Harden or Nikola Jokic for this past season’s MVP. But Antetokounmpo proved in a big way exactly why he deserved to be named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player.
If it wasn’t for Kawhi Leonard, this article could potentially have a very different tone. For all intents and purposes, the Milwaukee Bucks were the team with all the momentum heading into the postseason. They were the one seed out East. They had (at the time) the odds-on favorite to win the MVP award. They deployed a system that could have potentially given Golden State fits. If Milwaukee could have bested Toronto, who is to say they couldn’t have beaten Golden State, injuries or not?
But this is the NBA. In a best-of-seven series, the best team usually wins. In this case, Milwaukee lost to Toronto, and the Bucks’ front office knew that they weren’t a championship-level team, yet.
The Bucks clearly didn’t end the 2018-19 season the way they’d hoped. Ultimately, their goal was to make it to the NBA Finals. They came just short after losing in six games to the Raptors. They went up two games to start the series but then Kawhi entered Terminator-mode and put the series to rest, helping the Raptors rattle off four straight – and quite surprising – wins.
This isn’t because people fully expected Milwaukee to win the series. Toronto obviously had a solid roster. But like previously mentioned, the Bucks were No. 1 in the East, they had the best defensive rating and fourth-best offensive rating, and were a full two points ahead of second-place for best net rating. They led the league in points per game, led the league in rebounds per game, were second in blocks per game and second in three-pointers made.
The Bucks were a good team in 2017-18. They were a great team last season. It’s quite easy to figure out just why they made that jump. Their success can be chalked up primarily to two specific things: the hiring of head coach Mike Budenholzer and internal player development (namely Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Malcolm Brogdon).
Other small factors definitely played their part, as well. Everyone expected Brook Lopez to be a solid center. Absolutely no one expected him to shoot 36.5 percent from three on over six attempts per night. And we aren’t just talking run-of-the-mill attempts. Lopez was firing from deep, stepping back, defenders in his face. It was quite a spectacle.
Overall, Milwaukee had a really awesome season, but their regular-season success did not directly translate to postseason success. The best team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season does not mean the best team in the Eastern Conference after the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Milwaukee, there was a heap of tough decisions that needed to be made. Quite a few of their starters and main rotations guys became free agents.
They essentially let Nikola Mirotic walk, as he went on to join a team in Europe. In order to pay other players on their roster, they had to let Malcolm Brogdon accept an offer from the Indiana Pacers in a sign-and-trade. They could have matched as he was a restricted free agent, but if they wanted to pay other players it just wasn’t possible.
Their big offseason signings were all re-ups; the likes of Khris Middleton (five years, 178-million), Brook Lopez (four years, 52-million), and George Hill (three years, 29-million).
Losing Brogdon was a big blow to their roster. He played an incredibly vital role in the main rotation and was likely their best three-and-D player. They were able to nab Wesley Matthews who at one point might have been an upgrade over Brogdon but has since fallen victim to father time. However, he is still a great pickup and will certainly play an important role on both ends of the court.
They also picked up Kyle Korver who was traded to and then subsequently released from the Memphis Grizzlies. He, too, will be a big boost for an offense that lost two high-level three-point shooters (Brogdon and Mirotic). He is definitely a few steps slower than where he used to be in terms of defense, but he still fits seamlessly into just about any system. He is still elite at coming off screens and knocking down threes, and will absolutely help the roster stretch the defense when he’s on the court.
Korver paired with Giannis has the potential to be huge as the Greek Freak will certainly take advantage of a more spread out defense.
Other signings that could potentially turn out to be big are that of Frank Mason, Dragan Bender and Robin Lopez. The first two are still young and have room to improve. Dragan has been stuck on a less-than-ideal roster and Mason hasn’t really had a good opportunity to showcase his skills. The latter, twin brother of Brook Lopez, will be a solid backup center. He’s a great defender, plays with a crazy-high motor, and seems to boost the morale of any locker room he’s in.
If there wasn’t any indication before that Milwaukee is already preparing for the free agency of Giannis in 2021, the signing of his brother Thanasis definitely points to some solid preparation. Let’s be real, you can’t leave your brother in free agency. Or maybe you can. Either way, they don’t need to deal with that for two more years.
PLAYERS IN: Wesley Matthews, Kyle Korver, Robin Lopez, Frank Mason, Dragan Bender, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Adams, Cameron Reynolds (two-way), Luke Maye, Rayjon Tucker
PLAYERS OUT: Malcolm Brogdon, Tim Frazier, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tony Snell, Bonzie Colson Jr. (two-way)
Milwaukee’s offseason wasn’t ideal, but there wasn’t really much they could do. Because of the salary cap, there were certain decisions that had to be made. Losing Brogdon can very likely turn out to be a huge blow. If people didn’t realize just how important he was to the team’s success, it should stick out in a big way – at least at the beginning of the season.
There’s no doubt that Giannis still has room to grow. Middleton, too. But Brogdon had such a strong presence on both ends of the floor, that at times he was relied upon perhaps too much. They made the right move in paying Middleton, he’s clearly the better player, but Middleton making that much more money won’t make him that much better, obviously. So alas, the salary cap wins again and forced the Bucks to dump a key cog of their roster.
They would be smart to rely on Korver as little as possible throughout the season so he can be much better rested for the playoffs. We saw this with the Utah Jazz this last season. Utah acquired Korver via trade in November 2018 and was used almost exhaustingly at times. This really stuck out as Korver played virtually no role for Utah in the postseason.
It’s hard to give the Bucks a fair grade because their major roster changes were more-or-less out of their control. They did a pretty fine job with the cards they were dealt and ended up signing a handful of players that have the potential of really helping out. Plus, Giannis is coming off his best season yet with zero sign of slowing down.
It’s difficult to say that the Bucks got better, but it’s also not fair to say they got worse. Either way, we will just have to see how it plays out. A lot of teams in the East got better, so we will certainly see how much that gap between them and other teams closed.
At least Kawhi left Toronto. That will absolutely be one less worry for Milwaukee during the playoffs.
OFFSEASON GRADE: C+
High-Performance Mindfulness: The Missing Link To DeMarcus Cousins’ Recovery
Jake Rauchbach discusses DeMarcus Cousins and one of the under-explored, but more critical aspects of the injury recovery process.
Last week, DeMarcus Cousins sustained another career-threatening injury, tearing his ACL during a pickup game in Las Vegas.
Cousins, who battled back from a ruptured Achilles this past season, is now in jeopardy of missing a big chunk of the upcoming season for his third time in as many years.
He is expected to miss major time for a third straight season due to a lower leg injury. Before tearing his left Achilles on Jan. 26 2018, Cousins’ durability was never really in question. Before the initial injury, the big-man missed over 20 games just once in a season.
Virtually every year, we see stories similar to Cousins. A player who, at one time in his career had little to no history of injury, gradually becomes engulfed in a seemingly chronic and potentially career-ending pattern for injury – Derrick Rose being a prime example of this.
Common thought for chronic injury issues points back to the physical or structural aspect. Some of the most common theories as to why players experience these setbacks are generally due to pre-disposition, overcompensation and an over-ambitious goal for recovery.
With any injury type, there are obvious physical factors at play. However, a vital and under-explored aspect of the recovery process could be blocking these players’ recovery process.
The Mind-Body Factor
The mind and body are inextricably linked. A person cannot entertain a thought or emotion and, without effect, a chain-reaction in the body occurring. The same can be said for athletes that re-experience past traumatic injury by way of memory.
As humans, we tend to push overwhelming memories, such as traumatic injury, to the far reaches of our subconscious mind. This can be a problem, as these unresolved thoughts, emotions, feelings and psycho-somatic pain can get lodged within a player’s muscle memory.
When this happens, severe compensation, fear of injury and guarding patterns can arise in the body, which can have the effect of weakening the point of injury. This consequently causes structural weakness in other parts of the body. Rose and Cousins could be prime examples of this.
Subconscious mental and emotional blocks such as these, if left unaddressed, can create a nasty psycho-somatic injury loop, consequentially making players susceptible to further injury. Leaving imbalances unresolved at the unconscious level can jeopardize the physical health and well-being of an athlete. Finding a way to break this loop is paramount.
Mental And Emotional Blocks
The psycho-somatic memory of rupturing an Achilles or tearing an ACL can easily stay locked up within the deep mind or muscle memory of a player for years until fully processed.
In Rose’s case, his first major injury and psycho-somatic impediment may have occurred when he tore his ACL during the 2012-2013 season. Dr. Michael Casale, speaking about Rose, said:
“His injury must have caused so much mental trauma. The neuroscience part of me comes out and starts to think about, as far as the brain rewiring, it must be so unbelievably impactful to have that one moment change the way you think about yourself and your environment.”
Considering his past injury history – and the fact that some like Dr. Casale within the medical community believe that Rose’s injury may have caused psychological damage – it is not a stretch to think there has been a very real psycho-somatic element at play.
In Cousins’ case, he has sustained two major leg injuries in a relatively short period. It is generally challenging for big men with severe lower leg injuries to return to the court better than when they left it. Cousins could have his work cut out for him.
If Cousins or Rose are still carrying the deep mental and emotional discord from their past injuries, the chronic injury patterns that they have already experienced could likely persist.
Directly addressing unresolved psycho-somatic barriers with leading-edge High-Performance Mindfulness systems could help players like Rose and Cousins break the habitual injury loop that they have experienced.
The Missing Link – Streamlining The Injury Recovery Process
So what might be the next correct step in streamlining recovery?
High-Performance Mindfulness – Energy Psychology Programs that zero in on removing the mental and emotional baggage from past injuries, exactly what Cousins and Rose could require.
High-Performance Mindfulness can now identify which unconscious mental blocks are holding a player back wherein the subconscious mind-body they are being held. Through a systematic approach for removing and neutralize these impediments, players have been shown to physically improve once the emotional discord of the past experiences has been neutralized.
Frequently, the option of last resort, techniques such as these often have the effect of improving range of motion, eliminating fears of re-injury and eliminating those nasty guarding patterns.
Moreover, employing tools that interface directly with the subconscious mind have been shown to restore confidence, trust and rhythm for a player in regards to his or her own body.
For players like Cousins and Rose, there may be nothing more vital at this stage in their careers.
Getting to the root of these chronic injury patterns may be the key for Cousins, Rose and players like them challenged with similar injury patterns for unlocking, healing and preventing future injury.
Addressing the deeply held negatively charged thoughts, images, emotions and somatic feelings could be the way for doing so – and could be a game-changer for players coming back from injury.