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NBA Daily: Three Keys to the 2019 NBA Draft

The NBA Draft process involves high-stakes decision making. Basketball Insiders writer Drew Maresca examines three keys to the 2019 NBA Draft that are holding up other teams from deciding upon a singular draft strategy.

Drew Maresca

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The 2019 NBA Draft is rapidly approaching. It is now a mere 19 days away and, as is often the case, a lot is left to be sorted out in the final three weeks.

While all teams must make a final decision on each of their picks in the draft, there are a few decisions that are holding up other teams from fleshing out a singular draft strategy.

Let’s examine three keys to the 2019 NBA Draft.

Key 1: The Knicks must make the first tough decision

The Knicks hold the first key to the 2019 NBA Draft in that they are the first team that will have a tough decision to make. The first two selections are mostly set in stone. And despite R.J. Barrett being the (nearly) consensus third best player, the Knicks have displayed at least a willingness to explore other options. In addition to Barrett, the Knicks have been linked to Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver and Duke’s Cam Reddish with the third overall pick.

When considering who a team might select, it is more complicated than selecting the most talented player. It’s also more complicated than taking the best fit, too. Front offices have their own preferences pertaining to style of play, schools and/or conferences from which the players hail. Additionally, some front offices are more prone to trade up or down in the draft based on their appetite for risk. So let’s quickly review the past draft picks of New York’s front office, which is led by their President of Basketball Operations, Steve Mills, and General Manager, Scott Perry.

Prior to hiring Perry, Mills was the Knicks’ General Manager from 2014-2017. In his tenure as the team’s GM, Mills’ oversaw the selection of Cleanthony Early, Thanasis Anteokounmpo, Kristaps Porzingis, Frank Ntilikina, Damyean Dotson and Ognjen Jaramaz.

Scott Perry has served as a basketball executive in the front offices of the Pistons, Sonics/Thunder, Magic, Kings and Knicks. Over the course of his more than 10+ seasons in the NBA, Perry has a number of draft day wins like Tayshaun Prince, Kevin Durant, Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo (although he blossomed after being traded from Orlando) and De’Aaron Fox.

He’s also had his share of less successful picks, including Rodney White (selected one pick before Joe Johnson), Darko Milicic (selected before Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony) and Greg Monroe (whose career started off strongly, but who was also selected before Paul George and Gordon Hayward).

Together the pair selected Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robison in 2018.

What trends can we identify from their past picks? From a personnel standpoint, Perry clearly likes dynamic lead guards – he selected Knight, Oladipo, Payton, Fox and Ntilikina, all of whom were drafted as point guards and are at least 6-foot-3. If the Knicks landed the second pick, Ja Morant might be their guys given Perry’s past. But since he’s strongly being considered by the Grizzlies, it looks like Morant is off the table.

What types of players does Mills prefer to draft? Mills hasn’t provided a clear or specific strategy. Rather, he has taken a few swings of the bat in his limited time in charge of the Knicks. Mills is clearly unafraid of taking a chance on a relatively unproven player – with Porzingis (who worked out pretty well save for the long-term relationship) and Ntilikina (who is a trade candidate in the lead-up to the 2019 NBA Draft) both being mostly unknown to U.S. fans.

And while the players Mills has proven to be unafraid of less proven players, Perry’s selections have largely hailed from major NCAA programs.

But Barrett, Culver and Reddish all project to be wings in the NBA, ranging in height from 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-8. And they are all from major NCAA programs. Therefore, there is no trend in either of their histories that helps identify which of the three they may be leaning toward.

With that being said, it might be in the Knicks’ best interest to explore trading back since their immediate future is more closely tied to free agency than it is to the draft. The Cleveland Cavaliers are reported to be highly interested in Barrett, and the Knicks could probably pry additional, valuable assets from them in a swap that would also have to include the fifth overall pick (thus, netting them Reddish or Culver, too).

They could try to exchange the third pick and some combination of Knox, Robinson and Dennis Smith Jr. for a superstar player like Bradley Beal or even Anthony Davis. But that would require a leap of faith the Knicks might not be quite ready to make – consider the fallout if they did so and no other stars followed.

Regardless of which direction they take, lots of other teams’ draft plans are tied to whatever the Knicks choose to do.

Presently, Basketball Insider’s 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft(5-28-19) projects the Knicks will select Barrett.

Key 2: The Lakers are in a similar situation to the Knicks

The Los Angeles Lakers have similar hopes of luring free agents to their roster this offseason. Despite all of the toxicity around the team, they are actually farther along in their quest to do so thanks to the presence of LeBron James on their roster.

But James’ presence also makes the Lakers appear more desperate, as well. After all, they are built around a 34-year old. And their remaining roster is mostly as follows: Lonzo Ball (21 years old), Kyle Kuzma (23), Brandon Ingram (21), Josh Hart (24), Moritz Wagner (22) and Isaac Bonga (19).

Notice anything similar about the aforementioned players? They’re all under 25 years-old, which means there is limited veteran know-how.

The Lakers need a lot of help, but one thing they don’t need more of is youth. It is a foregone conclusion that they will reengage the Pelicans in trade talks for Anthony Davis, using the fourth pick in the draft as part of their trade package.

While the Knicks can conceivably add the third overall pick to their roster and still attract two superstar free agents, the Lakers should do all they can to cash in the pick and a young asset or two in exchange for a more established talent, which would almost certainly catapult them into contention next season.

And if the Pelicans choose a different team as their trade partner (or decide to hang onto Davis), the Lakers should also reach out to the Wizards about Beal, Houston about Chris Paul and essentially any other team with an age-appropriate running mate for LeBron James (with a requisite amount of talent).

Presently, Basketball Insider’s 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft (5-28-19) projects that the Lakers will select Duke’s Cam Reddish with the fourth pick.

Key 3: Will the Celtics actually add three first-round picks to their roster?

The Celtics are the final piece to the first-round puzzle. They are at a bit of a crossroads in that both of their point guards could flee Boston (Kyrie Irving is rumored to prefer playing at either Barclays Center, Madison Square Garden or the Staples Center and Terry Rozier may want out of Boston, too).

But all is not lost. They still have Gordon Hayward, Al Horford (player option, which appears likely to be picked up), Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart all under contract through at least the end of next season.

They also possess the 14th, 20th, 22nd and 51st picks in the 2019 draft. And therein lies the problem.

Their core consists of a decent mix of youth and veteran talent. And while Coach Brad Stevens is thought to be an excellent leader, the team does not need to incorporate as many as four more rookies into their rotation.

The 51st pick could be used on a draft-and-stash player from overseas. But three first-round picks would require lot of attention and result in lots of teachable moments – which would likely distract them from their end-goal (e.g., an NBA Championship).

Fortunately for the Celtics, adding three first-round draft picks isn’t a detriment to all teams. As the draft approaches, the Celtics must diligently explore all their trade options. They must reach out to teams that may be interested in adding multiple first-rounders in exchange for one slightly higher lottery pick (than their existing 14thpick) – especially if there is one particular player with whom they become infatuated.

They must also interface with teams that might want to trade away a borderline star in exchange for current (and future) draft capital – keep in mind, the Celtics also possess the Grizzles top-six protected pick in 2020 (which becomes unprotected in 2021 if it doesn’t convey in 2020) which can also be included in a trade.

Presently, Basketball Insider’s 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft (5-28-19) projects that the Celtics will select Kentucky’s PJ Washington at 14, Maryland’s Bruno Fernando at 20, Washington’s Matisse Thybulle at 22 and Tennessee’s Jordan Bone at 51.

The NBA Draft is essentially the pseudo-start to free agency, with teams beginning to swap picks and players. There stands to be as much, if not more, action this year than ever before. And the three teams mentioned above – New York, Los Angeles and Boston – very well may be the most active.

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NBA Daily: With Harden in Tow, it’s Championship or Bust for Brooklyn

Adding another former MVP to an already talented Nets team means higher expectations in Kings County. Drew Maresca identifies the major challenges remaining for the Brooklyn Nets.

Drew Maresca

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Unless you’re living under a rock, you already know that the Brooklyn Nets pulled off what will go down as the blockbuster deal of 2020-21. Just last week, the Nets added James Harden for Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen and future draft swaps and picks. While the deal was more complicated than even that sounds, the fact of the matter is that the Nets added another superstar– and you know what they say, the team that gives up the star rarely wins the trade.

With Harden in tow, the Nets are now equipped to compete with anyone in the NBA thanks to its newly-minted big three. But there is a downside to the Harden deal, too. The Nets entered the season with incredible depth. But after losing Spencer Dinwiddie to a knee injury and trading away LeVert, Rodions Kurucs and Allen, they’ve thinned out, probably too much, for their own comfort.

The Nets’ depth is an issue that will be challenging to solve. What’s more, how will they arrange Kyrie Irving and Harden to get the most production out of them? And how does rookie head coach Steve Nash respond to the first-time challenges of overseeing a championship-caliber team?

Regardless, our first look at the Nets was pretty darn impressive. Brooklyn beat the Orlando Magic on Saturday, getting 42 points from Kevin Durant and a 30-point triple-double from Harden that also included 14 assists. The Nets will boast one of the league’s most talented starting lineups once Irving returns– which could happen as soon as today – but don’t be fooled, there are still challenges on the horizon, and they’re all internal.

How do Irving and Harden fit together?

Harden might look like a shooting guard and Irving is obviously a point guard, but that doesn’t mean that they fit together. Harden is at his best initiating the offense, and since joining Houston in 2012-13, he hasn’t posted a usage rate lower than 27.8 but has gotten as high as 40.5 (2018-19). Further, he’s averaged 9.5 assists or more in each of the last five seasons, tallying at least 10 assists per game in three of the last five. While his style is clearly isolation-heavy, it looks like he’s finally willing to take a bit of a backseat now that he’s playing alongside his buddy and former-MVP in Durant.

Irving is another player high-usage player, with a usage rate of 30 or more in four of the past five seasons. While he looks more like a traditional point guard than Harden, his career totals don’t necessarily back that up. Unlike Harden, Irving has never averaged 10 assists per game. He averages only 5.7 assists per game for his career with a high of 6.9 in Boston during 2018-19.

Maybe the solution is letting Irving play off the ball. But there’s a problem with that initiative, will Irving accept it? Irving hasn’t been heard from since leaving the team for personal reasons following the Jan. 6 event in Washington D.C. Has his absence been a social commentary? Was it a power play forcing Brooklyn’s hand to trade for Harden? Or maybe it’s all enigmatic of a bigger personal problem with which Irving is dealing? Only time will tell, but Brooklyn can’t be too comfortable – unless they already know the answer.

Lack of depth is a problem

Obviously, the Nets are more than Durant, Harden and Irving. But do they have enough to get over the hump? After all, fair or not, it’s championship or bust. Yes, the Nets also have Joe Harris, Jeff Green and DeAndre Jordan. And, sure, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has been a great surprise, while lots will be expected of Landry Shamet. But that’s it.

There’s also Nic Claxton, but there are two main problems with expecting significant contributions from him – Nash said he isn’t expected back soon and he’s extremely untested. Sure, Claxton is talented, having drawn comparisons to Chris Bosh, but he only appeared in 15 games during his rookie season, averaging just 4.4 points and 2.9 rebounds over 12.5 minutes of action.

But the idea that the Nets are undermanned is about more than a missing piece. Firstly, the Nets don’t have a reliable scorer in the second unit. If Dinwiddie were healthy, they’d be in significantly better shape with him anchoring the second team. Granted, if managed correctly and everyone stays healthy, one of Irving, Durant and Harden will be on the floor at all times. But it’s impossible to ensure that health will prevail and Irving hasn’t even rejoined the team yet, so there is deeper uncertainty around their rotation and the fit for now.

Focusing on health for a moment, we’re still dead smack in the middle of a pandemic. And in 2020-21, teams can’t operate under traditional norms. Losing a player to COVID would do the Nets a huge disservice, losing two or three nearly renders them unable to play. But more importantly, losing any one of their big three hurts badly and changes the entire makeup of the team. The Nets are incredibly top-heavy and once they establish chemistry amongst their three stars, proceeding without one would of them will be a major hindrance. Losing two of them would be a death blow.

Nash’s first rodeo

On top of all of the team’s issues, Nash is in his first season as a head coach – or even being a part of any coaching staff whatsoever.

Throughout his 18-year career, Nash developed a reputation as an extremely high-IQ player – but how will that convert to leading a team from the sideline with such high expectations? Granted, he knew exactly what was expected of the Nets when he accepted the position – but the Harden trade comes even more pressure.

As of the deal, the Nets became easily the most polarizing team in the association. Even before adding another former MVP, the Nets did their best to better position Nash by adding two-tie Coach of the Year Mike D’Antoni to their bench, which already featured an experienced assistant in Jacque Vaughn. But while the team may have a disproportionately accomplished coaching staff, all of the questions will be directed squarely at Nash come the playoffs and beyond.

For what it is worth, rookie coaches have fared pretty well of late. While it might not affect the Nets directly, three of the nine rookie coaches to go on to win a championship in their first season did so in the past six seasons –  Steve Kerr, Ty Lue and Nick Nurse. While no two coaches are the same, the fact that rookie coaches have been so successful of late speaks to the idea that teams are doing a better job of identifying raw coaching talent – and Nash is as raw as it comes.

It’s hard to find fault in Brooklyn’s desire to add Harden and the fact that they just added another top-five player to an already insanely-talented roster is flat-out unfair. But now the bar has forever changed: anything less than an NBA Finals’ appearance will be judged as a failure, even that could be deemed an underperformance. While greater expectations mean you’re closer to success in the NBA, the team also ponied up its future through 2026.

Good luck, Brooklyn, no pressure.

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NBA Daily: First Time All-Star Watch

From Christian Wood to Jaylen Brown, these are the breakout players reaching for their first-ever All-Star appearances.

Dylan Thayer

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In this feature for Basketball Insiders, we will take a look at players who have started hot out of the gate, and have vastly improved. The article will touch upon new faces in new roles, as well as players who have expanded their previous roles with their teams. The league has a pretty good amount of guys who have earned All-Star appearances previously in their careers, but the players in this article are ready to add their name to the list 𑁋 so without further ado 𑁋 let’s take a look at five players who are cementing their names around the league. 

Christian Wood

To the casual fan, Christian Wood is having a huge surprise season. But for the people who had him on their radar, and knew he could succeed with more minutes and a larger role, you were right. The 25-year-old began his journeyman career with the Philadelphia 76ers as an undrafted free agent out of UNLV. He then played for the Charlotte Hornets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Pelicans, Detroit Pistons and now the Houston Rockets. In his first 10 games this year, he is putting up 23.2 points per game to go along with 10.9 rebounds per game and 1.9 blocks per game, per NBA.com. This is a major improvement for a guy who only averaged 13.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game last year as a rotational player for the Pistons. Wood’s remarkable season thus far has put the league on notice and shown he is the clear frontrunner for the Most Improved Player award.

Julius Randle

In his seventh season, Julius Randle has finally become a star in the Big Apple for the New York Knicks. Randle spent the first five seasons of his career with the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans, before signing with the Knicks before the 2019-20 season. This year, Randle has taken the lead role on the team becoming an above-average facilitator, while also raising his shooting percentages and totals.

According to Basketball-Reference, Randle is having a career-best season so far averaging 23.2 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, and 6.7 assists per game along with shooting 50.2 percent from the field, 35.3 percent from three and 78.2 percent from the free-throw line 𑁋 all career highs. Randle’s play helped the Knicks get off to a 5-3 start before a recent five-game losing skid. Randle’s ascension as a player, as well as providing Knicks fans with a glimmer of hope, make him a good bet to represent the Eastern Conference in the All-Star Game this season if there is such an event.

CJ McCollum

Yes, CJ is the well-known sidekick to Damian Lillard for the Portland Trail Blazers, but this season has seen him steal some of the spotlights. Through the first 12 games of the season, McCollum has three 30-point games –including a 44-point and 8-assist performance against the Rockets – plus another 37-point outing to boot. His per-game numbers increased in points, assists, steals and three-point percentage, thus resulting in a very impressive 27.6 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.4 SPG and 43.4 percent from deep. 

McCollum has done enough as a player to this point to establish himself as an above-average player in the NBA – but with the way he’s playing this year, he could be in line for his first All-Star selection. The lethal backcourt of Lillard and McCollum has led to a hot start this year – but the injury bug continues to haunt the team again this year. Already, they’ve lost Jusuf Nurkic for eight weeks and potentially now McCollum with a left foot sprain too, per Chris Haynes.

Jerami Grant

The Detroit Pistons made a really good decision to bring in free agent Jerami Grant on a three-year deal. The 6-foot-8 small forward has been putting up career-best numbers and his play for the Denver Nuggets during their Western Conference Finals run at the bubble helped get him this deservedly big contract. In the team’s first 12 games this season, Grant is averaging 24.8 points per game and 6.1 rebounds per game, while also improving his free throw percentage and shot-creating opportunities. Unfortunately, it’s likely that he’ll miss out on any real All-Star chatter, given his place on one of the worst teams in the league – but the all-around improvement is there. 

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown, the former third overall pick out of California, has molded himself into a star this season for the Boston Celtics. Brown’s improvement has been no secret around the league, especially after an Eastern Conference Finals run this past season – but this year he looks like he belongs up there with the best. Brown has been relentless in taking the ball to the rim and using his body to create contact when going up. He has also boosted his points per game from 20.3 to 25.8, while also adding more assists to his game with 3.9 per game. Brown should be a first-time All-Star this season with the Celtics currently sitting atop the conference. 

These players are all having breakout seasons and have well-earned consideration for their first All-Star appearances this year. Of course, the game is not happening this year with the pandemic, but the players will still be recognized and added to the history books for their achievements, so the honor remains large all the same. Whether they make it or not is yet to be determined – but with the sample size of games played to date, they’re right in the conversation.  

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NBA Daily: Are the 76ers a Legit Contender?

Do the Philadelphia 76ers have the roster necessary to compete for a title? Basketball Insiders’ Quinn Davis goes in-depth on one of the league’s most polarizing teams.

Quinn Davis

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Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are no strangers to a spirited discussion at their expense. In each of the last three seasons, fans and pundits alike have wrangled over their potential as a championship-winning duo. Different sects have formed, sometimes resembling political parties in their rigid viewpoints.

The arguments branch off into granular takes on things like the viability of an offensive engine that can’t run a pick-and-roll, but they center around a simple question — can Embiid and Simmons be the two best players on a championship team?

Since their partnership came to be, the Philadelphia 76ers have been a playoff lock, but they have yet to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Their 2018-19 iteration was one Kawhi Leonard shot away from the third round (and potentially more), but that team featured Jimmy Butler who handled much of the team’s offensive burden.

Their fourth season together may bring the most clarity on that all-important question. General Manager Daryl Morey used the short offseason to reconfigure the roster, finding shooters and drafting a ball-handler to maximize the duo’s strengths while mitigating their weaknesses. And the early returns have been promising; the team is off to a solid 9-5 start, with two of those losses coming with half of the roster out due to the league’s COVID-19 health and safety protocols. In fact, the team is undefeated when all five of the usual starters are active, albeit against a weak schedule.

Still, many question whether the current roster can compete when defenses tighten in the postseason. The obvious comparison is the 2017-18 version of the 76ers when Simmons and Embiid were surrounded solely by shooters like JJ Redick, Marco Bellinelli and Robert Covington. That team went on a 16-game winning streak to end the regular season but faltered in the second round of playoffs, as the lack of ball-handling outside of Simmons led to the team’s demise.

A few of those doubters might even exist within Philadelphia’s front office. The team was reportedly very close to sending Simmons and other assets to the Houston Rockets for James Harden. The aggressiveness pursuing the star guard would seem to confirm the reservations about the team’s current duo.

But, with Harden now playing for a fellow Eastern Conference contender, those reservations no longer matter. And the road to a title is now just a bit harder.

All of this leads to the important question: is Philadelphia, as currently constructed, a true title contender? With the evidence we have available — or lack thereof — the answer would have to be no. There is just too much uncertainty to place the 76ers into the inner circle alongside the Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets and maybe even the Los Angeles Clippers.

That said, this team can join that group. And some early-season trends foster hope for a leap to true contention.

The success of the starting lineup has come largely on the back of Embiid’s dominance this season. The big man’s efficiency is way up — so far, he’s shot at a career-high mark from every area of the court. His 39 percent three-point shooting in particular has been a major addition to his all-around game.

Outside of the hot shooting, Embiid looks fit and motivated as well. He’s taken on a huge role offensively while still managing to anchor one of the NBA’s top defenses. Philadelphia has crushed teams when he’s on the court — and nearly collapses whenever he rests.

Embiid has also significantly improved his passing. While his assist numbers are mostly stagnant, it is clear on tape that Embiid has lost little sweat over a constant stream of double teams. Meanwhile, the shooting around him has given Embiid space inside and the confidence that a pass out will not only reach it’s intended target, but could lead to the best possible outcome for the team.

It’s still early, so whether he can keep it up remains to be seen. That said, if the 76ers are now led by an MVP candidate rather than another run-of-the-mill All-Star, it would bode well for this group to advance further than ever before.

Similarly encouraging has been the play of Shake Milton. Milton has provided a huge boost off the bench, scoring 17 points per game on 62 percent true shooting.

If Milton is truly a sixth man of the year candidate — and, right now, he is — it could solve one of Phialdelphia’s biggest question marks; the lack of a secondary creator around Embiid. The team is currently posting a robust 1.17 points per possession when Milton handles the ball in a pick-and-roll, per NBA.com. That number falls in the 90th percentile league-wide.

While many had hoped that Simmons would evolve into a player who could create offense in crunch-time situations, his game has yet to allow for that dimension. That isn’t to say that the 76ers would be better off trading Simmons for the first decent guard they can find, though; Simmons is still extremely valuable and someone who can drive winning basketball even if it’s in unconventional ways.

The best role for Simmons is that of a supercharged Draymond Green. In the half-court he would mostly be tasked with setting screens and cutting rather than serving as on offensive initiator, ceding that duty to Milton or perhaps the hot-shot rookie, Tyrese Maxey. It would avoid Simmons’ biggest weaknesses, but it would still allow him to leave his mark on the game by dominating on the defensive end, rampaging down the court in transition and zipping passes to open shooters.

In fact, having Simmons initiate less of the offense has already paid dividends. When Milton has played with the starters in the place of Danny Green, Philadelphia has outscored opponents by 60 points per 100 possessions, posting on an offensive rating of 143.1, per Cleaning the Glass. Those numbers are clearly unsustainable — that lineup has played just 65 possessions together — but it’s a sign that having a pick-and-roll creator alongside Simmons and Embiid may work wonders for an offense that could struggle against a set defense, particularly in the playoffs.

If the team doesn’t want to bank on the internal improvement of Embiid and Milton, then it may still look to improve the roster via trade.

Of course, Harden would have been their best bet, but a name to watch here might be the newest Rocket: Victor Oladipo. A solid defender with some serious pick-and-roll prowess, Oladipo could be a perfect fit alongside the nominal starters. It’s unclear whether Houston would be open to moving Oladipo, who is 29-years-old and on an expiring contract with no promise of staying with the team long-term. If he isn’t a part of the Rockets’ plan for the future, Philadelphia could certainly offer an interesting package to try and bring him in.

Bigger names could also become available. Bradley Beal’s name will continue to be mentioned as long as the Washington Wizards continue to struggle. Kyle Lowry could be another option if the Toronto Raptors can’t right the ship and decide their run is over. Both of those are highly unlikely but, in a league where circumstances change by the hour, anything is possible.

The 76ers have flaws to figure out. The play of Simmons has been somewhat concerning thus far. But, when everyone has been available, the team has looked elite.

And, while that small-sample size isn’t enough to lump them in with the best of the best, Philadelphia’s potential paths to get to the top of the NBA are more plentiful and plausible than they were six months ago.

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