In the season’s early going, a familiar cast of characters has emerged in the race for Defensive Player of the Year. In a league increasingly reliant on versatility and the implementation of pace and space, though, some new candidates have emerged, as other, position-less defenders have a greater opportunity than ever to force their way into the conversation.
So, with that said, here’s where the Defensive Player of the Year race stands two weeks into 2019-20.
Honorable Mention: Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic; Al Horford, Philadelphia 76ers; Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors; Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers; Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers; Dwight Howard, Los Angeles Lakers
5. Joel Embiid – Philadelphia 76ers
Call it an honorary spot in the season’s earliest Defensive Player of the Year rankings.
Embiid, to be clear, has played in only half of Philadelphia’s six games after being suspended for tussling with Karl-Anthony Towns. His 76 total minutes played is less than half that of every other player on this list. It’s only fair to mention, too, that opponents are shooting 69.6 percent at the rim against Embiid, making him one of the least effective rim-protectors in the NBA so far. The small sample size plays a huge factor there, obviously, and Embiid has been among the league’s elite in that regard every season of his career.
More importantly, the eye test and other on-off defensive data confirm what we thought coming into 2019-20: Health provided, Embiid will be a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year all season long.
Embiid, despite shedding some weight this season, remains a mountain as a post defender and looms larger as a weak-side shot-blocker than arguably any other player in basketball.
The 76ers rank sixth in defensive rating, and surrender just 85.0 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor – an easy team-low among regulars, both for the season’s duration and dating back to his suspension. Philadelphia also gives up fewer shots at the rim and opponents shoot worse from there when he’s on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass.
Just as telling of his sweeping impact on a team overflowing with defensive talent, Philadelphia has been far stingier with Embiid on the court and Horford on the bench than vice versa, too.
Embiid’s case is incomplete due to his suspension, and despite the weight loss, he’s still struggled to defend in space after switches. But given his track record and the available evidence, scant as it may be, Embiid seems well on his way to another season worthy of Defensive Player of the Year.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks
The highlight-reel plays speak for themselves. There isn’t a more threatening chase-down artist in transition than Antetokounmpo, and his impossibly-long arms and opportunistic instincts allow him to wreak havoc in the half-court, jumping passing lanes for steals and challenging shots as a helper.
Even a basketball layman, casually watching the action, could understand just how devastating he is as a defender.
But it’s the more nuanced influence that separates Antetokounmpo from other non-centers who rack up steals, blocks and deflections with ease. At 6-foot-11 with a wingspan 7-foot-3 or longer, most players simply refuse to challenge him when an opportunity to do so presents itself, letting his teammates get back in position to avoid further defensive rotations. While Milwaukee’s scheme doesn’t readily permit switching, the inevitable scrambles that result from ball and player movement mean Antetokounmpo regularly guards multiple players on a single possession.
None of them have much interest in challenging him, either.
Antetkounmpo would be higher on this list if the Bucks weren’t quietly struggling, relative to expectations, defensively. They currently rank 13th in defensive rating, and barely fare better when excluding garbage time.
But Milwaukee has played a relatively tough schedule over the season’s first two weeks, and is relying on the same system that helped it finish first in defense a year ago. As time propels Milwaukee up the defensive rankings, expect Antetokounmpo’s case for Defensive Player of the Year to grow even stronger.
3. Bam Adebayo – Miami Heat
The HEAT have quietly been a top-10 defensive unit in each of the past three seasons, indicative of Erik Spoelstra’s schematic success and the franchise’s overarching identity of effort and hard work.
But, in 2019-20, Miami finally has the defensive personnel worthy of its strategy and ethos, a reality Adebayo embodies on a nightly basis.
Entrenched as a starter for the first time in his career, Adebayo is an early Most Improved Player frontrunner due to his increased playmaking responsibilities offensively. But it’s the other end of the floor where the fourth-year big man has made his presence felt most, and where the HEAT seem primed to emerge as one of the stingiest teams in the league because of it.
Adebayo isn’t a traditional rim-protecting force a la Embiid, nor an all-court defensive terror like Antetokounmpo. Instead, he’s something in between, a wing in a center’s body with a motor that never stops who can legitimately check all five positions.
Adebayo served as the HEAT’s primary defender of Russell Westbrook during his team’s blowout win over the Houston Rockets on Sunday, and also flashed his unparalleled switching chops while matching up with James Harden and Eric Gordon. His game-saving chase-down block on Eric Bledsoe in a comeback win over the Bucks is the season’s most memorable defensive play to date.
The HEAT own the league’s fourth-best defensive rating entering Tuesday’s tilt with the Denver Nuggets, and allow 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Adebayo on the floor compared to the bench. Opponents’ rate of shots at the rim dips 6.1 percent with him in the lineup, per Cleaning the Glass, the biggest discrepancy owed to any player listed.
Miami, with the exception of Philadelphia, possesses as much top-tier defensive talent as any team in basketball with Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Justise Winslow. But, two weeks into the regular season, it’s clear Adebayo is the engine behind the HEAT’s dominance on that side of the ball.
2. Rudy Gobert – Utah Jazz
So much for the notion that the two-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year’s candidacy for a third straight trophy would be mitigated by his team pivoting away from old-school lineups. Utah’s embrace of a four-out style, in fact, has actually made Gobert’s case even stronger.
The Jazz have the league’s second-ranked defense through seven games despite replacing Derrick Favors with Bojan Bogdanovic and shirking two-big quintets altogether. Though it actually defends better with Gobert off the floor, a testament to Quin Snyder’s schematic and motivational brilliance, Utah still permits 5.8 percent fewer shots at the rim with him manning the middle, per Cleaning the Glass.
That’s an especially important stat, as the Jazz’s success defensively hinges on manipulating the opposing team’s shot profile. They allow fewer shots at the rim than any team but Milwaukee and rank sixth in opponent’s three-point rate, leading teams to take a league-high proportion of mid-range jumpers.
No player in basketball accounts more for his team’s defensive identity than Gobert. The Jazz funnel everything his way, confident penetrators and finishers will be spooked by the looming threat of one of the best rim-protectors of all time. LeBron James, for instance, normally doesn’t resort to 16-foot floaters with a head of steam toward the rim, and Anthony Davis normally doesn’t feel the need to dribble into a fadeaway jumper after grabbing an offensive rebound directly under the basket.
Dwight Howard is the only player to ever win three consecutive Defensive Player of the Year awards. Despite mitigating contextual circumstances, it’s now obvious Gobert has a great chance of becoming the second.
1. Anthony Davis – Los Angeles Lakers
Easily overlooked due to how clunky a pair of traditional big men has made the Lakers’ offense is what that look does for them on the other side of the floor. Los Angeles’ defensive rating is a league-best 96.3, and its 52.1 percent shooting allowed at the rim ranks second, per NBA.com. Lineups featuring Davis and Howard boast a 77.9 defensive rating, comfortably lowest among the team’s most oft-used tandems.
Howard deserves immense credit for his role in pushing the Lakers’ defense to the top of the NBA. Los Angeles has been substantially better on that end with him next to Davis than JaVale McGee too, evidence of his much-improved engagement and overall understanding of defensive rotations.
But the numbers, almost as much as the eye test, make clear that Davis is the single biggest source of Los Angeles’ excellence on defense. His defensive rating in 65 minutes played without Howard and McGee is 97.3, barely above the Lakers’ season-long mark, and the opposition has shot a mind-blowing 19 percent against him at the rim, lowest in the league among qualified players.
Both of those numbers, and certainly the latter one, are likely to rise as the season progresses. But, finally in the national spotlight, vying for a title as co-star to arguably the greatest player ever, Davis seems more committed to defense on a play-by-play basis than ever, frequently leading to the type of jaw-dropping plays only he and a select few others can dream of making.
Despite the loss to the rival LA Clippers on opening night, Davis put on a personal show defensively that voters should remember when it comes time to cast ballots during awards season.
Even more than Antetokounmpo, who lags behind him as a pure shot-blocker, Davis stands apart defensively. There’s no other defender in basketball like him, and if the season’s early going is a harbinger of what’s to come, Davis could very well win his first Defensive Player of the Year award in his first campaign with the Lakers.
Of course, this list has the qualifier of a small sample size. Over the course of the season, these rankings are subject to change, whether because of an unexpected competitor, an injury to an expected candidate or otherwise.
That said, make sure to stay tuned for the rest of the Basketball Insiders award watches, and keep on the lookout for future updates throughout the season.
Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.
We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.
With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.
The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old
Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.
He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.
Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.
Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old
Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.
He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.
Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.
Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old
Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.
He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.
One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old
Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards
Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.
It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.
Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.
The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.
But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.
Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old
Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.
But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.
Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.
Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old
Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.
And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.
While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.
If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.
Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old
Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).
Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.
Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.
Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old
Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.
Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.
But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.
Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.
Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old
Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old
Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old
With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.
NBA Daily: Opposite Plotlines for Today’s Matchups
With the two matchups going on today, Matt John examines the two teams who could be in the most trouble because of one of their individual stars for opposite reasons.
The second round of the NBA playoffs was hyped up to be one of the most entertaining we’ve had in years. So far, they haven’t fallen short of expectations. We knew that Houston and Los Angeles’ battle of opposite philosophies would make for some twists and turns. We knew that Boston and Toronto would duke it out in an Atlantic Division showdown. We knew that Miami would push Milwaukee to new heights. We didn’t really know if the Nuggets would give the Clippers a good series, but the fact that they have so far has made an intense postseason all the more gripping.
Anyway, today we’re getting two games from two series in completely opposite places. The Lakers and the Rockets will face off for the series lead, while the HEAT will try to finish off the Bucks once and for all. Below, we’re going to focus on two teams who have an individual star that either may be more flawed than we thought or one that may not be as flawed as we thought.
Bucks vs. HEAT: Giannis is great and all, but…
We all pretty much knew this was going to be a good series. We did not expect this.
The buzz surrounding Bucks v. HEAT was that Miami was going to make Milwaukee earn every win they got in this series. If that was the plan, then Miami has failed miserably, because until Khris Middleton went supernova on them on Sunday, Milwaukee had come up terribly short.
Let’s first give Miami the credit that they are due and more. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler alone, Miami was going to be a tough matchup for Milwaukee – but to see the Bucks all but roll over in this series is an unpleasant sight. Acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala has paid huge dividends and it’s showing. There are other factors involved, but Miami’s defensive efforts have limited Giannis to 21.8 points a game and that’s played a role in the HEAT being in the driver’s seat of this series.
Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, this series has not been a good look for the Defensive Player of the Year. Especially since it looks like his second consecutive MVP (presumably) is right around the corner. So, to see both him and Milwaukee, once an unstoppable force without an immovable object in sight, get stopped by a sturdy but not immovable squad is saddening.
Nearly a year ago, Basketball Insiders compared these current Bucks to the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic from the late-2000’s/early 2010’s. To oversimplify things, both were contenders led by a superstar with a rare physique that made them tough to stop. To put the superstar in the best position, they surrounded them with playmakers and three-point shooters.
While the teams’ roster constructions weren’t exactly the same, their strengths as a team certainly were. Now we’re seeing the Bucks’ flaws just as we did the Magic 10 years ago. If you have the personnel to make the lone superstar uncomfortable, the team doesn’t function as well.
Giannis is near impossible to stop, but the one major flaw is that if you take away his ability to drive and force him into a jumper, he loses his rhythm. Even if his shot is on – never a guarantee – his opponents will let him beat them that way until he makes them pay. Hardly any team can pick on this, but the HEAT are one of them, and now they’re one win away from their first Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James took his talents out of South Beach.
This ultimately is what puts Antetokounmpo below the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard for now. Those guys are rare physical specimens like him, but their elite games don’t revolve entirely around their natural gifts as he does or Dwight did. At 25 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to change that and, for all we know, he will, but to see him struggle at a time when the conference was supposed to run through him has ignited tons of questions.
Milwaukee’s technically not out yet, but they’ve shown their mortality against Miami. If this really is it for them, then they’ve got to find a quick fix for this problem because if they don’t, then the unspeakable may happen.
Lakers vs. Rockets: Westbrook has been bad and all but…
Shaking off the rust and recovering from a balky knee would be tough for anyone. For Russell Westbrook, it’s killing his productivity and, in turn, the Rockets’ playoff chances. He’s averaging 15.6 points on 39/16/47 splits with a most recent 10-point, 4-of-15 effort from the field which included seven turnovers and air balling wide-open threes sticking out like a sore thumb.
It also doesn’t help that he’s playing the Lakers of all teams. When Westbrook has been in, the Lakers have taken advantage of his shortcomings offensively and it shows both on the court and the stat line.
Most of Westbrook’s damage is hurting Houston on the offensive end. With the All-Star guard in the game, Houston is minus-13.7 with him on the court, the worst offensive rating on the team. The 12 turnovers he’s coughed up in this series probably have something to do with that.
With Westbrook’s struggles and his predecessor Chris Paul coming off of his best individual season since 2016, this, of course, has led to many second-guessing the swap last summer. Or let’s rephrase that: People have been second-guessing that trade since the moment it was announced and, in light of recent events, they’re piling on now more than ever.
Maybe they’re right. Even after playing in the NBA for over a decade now, Westbrook still hasn’t proven that he can control himself enough to reach his potential as a team player. We’ve seen glimpses. On the other hand, Paul showed that he can still pick apart defenses while holding his own on that end.
But replacing Paul with Westbrook was Harden’s idea. He didn’t want to play with Paul anymore and chose to play with one of his closest friends. You may think that the better fit is what’s best for the team, but we’ve seen the damage that can happen when your team’s best players have friction with one another. It hurt Utah this season. It hurt Boston last season. It destroyed the Lakers back in 2013. There’s no telling what it could have done to Houston this season.
Besides, we know that as bad as Westbrook has been, he’s capable of being better. Not a knockdown shooter, not even an efficient scorer, but he has done better in the past when the focus was on him. The more days he takes to shake off the rust from his knee, the more optimistic the Rockets ought to be.
The Rockets have to take the glass-half-full on this one because they don’t really have a choice otherwise.