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NBA PM: An Early Look At The Rebuilding Atlanta Hawks

Buddy Grizzard takes inventory of the rebuilding Hawks and predicts a rapid turn-around.

Buddy Grizzard

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The Atlanta Hawks betrayed an underlying organizational instability during the first round of the NBA playoffs when Dwight Howard was held out of fourth quarters in Games 2 and 5 against the Wizards before turning in a dismal performance in Atlanta’s Game 6 elimination. Howard was -14 in 23 minutes in Game 6 while attempting only four shots. Hours earlier, Howard had his car towed for no insurance while driving at around 2 AM of the morning preceding the elimination game.

That instability created a situation where the Hawks, for the second offseason in a row, would face losing the team’s best player without compensation. The summer before, Atlanta had declined to offer Al Horford the full max and saw him depart to the Boston Celtics as an unrestricted free agent. The Hawks had made plans to trade Paul Millsap to the Phoenix Suns for assets while re-signing Horford to pair him in the front court with Howard. Horford would later imply that playing alongside Howard was not attractive for him.

After Howard’s meltdown in the playoffs, Millsap may have been thinking the same thing. The Hawks declined to extend a contract offer to Millsap, who departed to the Denver Nuggets. Atlanta finally committed to a full rebuild — much as the organization loathes to use that word — that many observers felt the Hawks should have started at least a season sooner. It’s important to note that the Hawks organization has not torn the team down to the studs like the Philadelphia 76ers. The developing young talent on this roster should give fans reason to hope that it won’t be an extended stay in lottery land, and here we’ll look at the key components of that picture.

Dennis Schroder

Statistically, Schroder took a step forward in the playoffs. After averaging 20.5 points, 7.2 assists and 3.7 turnovers per 36 minutes in the regular season on 34 percent shooting from three-point range, Schroder averaged 25.3 points, 7.8 assists and only 1.7 turnovers per 36 against the Wizards, including 42 percent shooting from three. The jump in assists while cutting his turnovers by a full two per 36 minutes was especially impressive, coming as it did while guarded by a well-regarded defender in John Wall.

The advanced metrics were less kind to Schroder, however, as his -7.5 points per 100 possessions in the Wizards series was the worst of any Hawk to play significant minutes. The degree to which Schroder and the departed Tim Hardaway, Jr. were outplayed by Wall and Bradley Beal was the biggest deciding factor of the series. Nonetheless, it was Schroder’s first experience as the starting point guard in a playoff series. His improvement in assist-to-turnover ratio should not be taken for granted, but rather as a sign of untapped upside he may further reveal in the upcoming season.

Schroder will lead the national team for his native Germany in the upcoming EuroBasket 2017 tournament, so observers will have an opportunity to see him in action against a high level of competition well ahead of the NBA’s preseason. Schroder will also face another new experience in the upcoming seasons as defenses key on him as they never have before with Millsap out of the picture.

Taurean Prince

After Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer declined to play Taurean Prince significant minutes early in the season, he surprisingly became the starting small forward toward the end of the regular season and kept that role into the playoffs. Prince became the first player since Tony Parker to start and score in double figures in his first five career playoff starts as a rookie and the first rookie in Hawks history to score in double digits in his first four playoff starts. Through Game 3 of the Wizards series, Prince shot an astonishing 57 percent from three point range and was second only to Kawhi Lenord in true shooting percentage for the playoffs.

That’s a pretty impressive resume for a first-year player. Prince also kept Otto Porter — recipient this offseason of a max contract extension from the Wizards — in check defensively for much of the series. Prince went into the playoffs known more for his defensive reputation than for the offensive outburst he displayed. That he showed up as a two-way player against the Wizards is a hugely encouraging sign for Atlanta. However, as with Schroder, Prince will face additional defensive attention for the upcoming season. Prince will go from an afterthought on Atlanta’s bench to possibly the second scoring option.

Ersan Ilyasova

The advanced stats love Ersan Ilyasova. He was among the net rating leaders for the Thunder, 76ers, and Hawks during the regular season and his +2.2 in the Wizards series trailed only Kent Bazemore and Jose Calderon among rotation players. However, Ilyasova was unable to help Atlanta avoid elimination as he shot 1-for-6 with a game-worst -7 in Game 5 before playing only five minutes in Game 6. The Hawks organization is infamous for failing to disclose injuries — an offseason wrist injury to Hardaway the season before was not revealed until midseason — so Ilyasova may have been limited toward the end of the series.

Ilyasova led the NBA in charges taken, which shows that he has advanced defensive timing and positioning. With the Hawks this season, Ilyasova will have a real opportunity to play above his reputation as a journeyman as he projects as the team’s starting power forward. He’s started 365 games over his career, so it’s not a burden he’s unfamiliar with. And the 18 points and 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes he averaged for the 2015-16 season would be welcome production. But as with Prince and Schroder, the refrain remains the same. Ilyasova will have to produce in the face of much greater defensive attention than he received as Millsap’s backup.

DeAndre Bembry

Possibly the biggest wildcard for the Hawks will be the play of DeAndre Bembry, who, unlike Prince, never got an opportunity to crack the rotation last season. This led to a great deal of consternation among Hawks observers who saw his potential during a road win in Houston during which Bembry applied lock-down defense against MVP finalist James Harden.

Bembry gives the Hawks another multi-position switching defender on the wing to pair with Prince. The limiting factor is the three-point line, where he’s shot just 1-for-18 for his career. His shot looked worlds better during NBA Summer League, but improvement against lower levels of competition can prove illusory. If Bembry’s improved three-point range turns out not to be a mirage, he could be a breakout player for Atlanta. In addition to his defensive versatility, he provides the Hawks with another ball handler who can create shots for his teammates and take some of the pressure off Schroder.

John Collins

After John Collins fell all the way to the Hawks at 19th in the first round of this summer’s NBA Draft, he was selected to the All-NBA Summer League first team in Las Vegas. Front office executives who spoke to Basketball Insiders publisher Steve Kyler in Vegas said that Collins could be one of the truly special players to come out of the 2017 NBA Draft. It appears that the Hawks found a diamond in the rough and possibly the steal of the entire draft.

Collins proved to be an explosive dunker and rebounder in Vegas and should make an immediate impact as the most efficient offensive player in college basketball last season. The questions will come on the defensive end, where Wake Forest coach Danny Manning hid Collins by instructing him to avoid foul trouble. Collins is also not known for his outside shot, although in pre-draft workouts and during Summer League, his shot from the elbows and from deep looked competent and composed. While Hawks fans can look forward to the team’s first trip to the lottery in a decade, Collins should at least keep the home crowd entertained with his athletic rim assaults.

DeWayne Dedmon

The Hawks may have found another diamond in the rough in Dedmon, who started 37 games at center for the Spurs during the regular season and three in the playoffs. Dedmon is an interesting story as he was raised as a Jehovah’s Witness and did not play competitive basketball until he walked on to his junior college team. Thus, while Dedmon’s numbers are typical of an NBA journeyman, the fact that he’s only been playing since he became an adult indicates there could be untapped upside waiting to be revealed in an expanded role.

Like Schroder, Dedmon made an encouraging improvement in per 36-minute stats from the regular season to the playoffs in San Antonio. During the regular season, he averaged 10.5 points and 13.4 rebounds per 36 while shooting 70 percent from the free throw line and 62 percent from the field. During the playoffs, he averaged 16.7 points and 17.4 rebounds per 36. His field goal shooting held steady at 61 percent, but his free throw shooting took a dive to 53 percent on nearly 12 attempts per 36 minutes. It’s only a 12-game sample so it may not be cause for excessive alarm, but it will be something to keep an eye on.

While the Hawks will undoubtedly take a major step back this season with many of the team’s top scorers and impact defenders departed, Atlanta may not perform as poorly as some observers predict. There are enough pieces here that the Hawks could win enough games to hurt their chances of gaining one of the top three picks in the upcoming draft. Budenholzer is ultra-competitive and a former assistant with the world champion Spurs, and you can be sure that “tanking” is not in his vocabulary. It’s an intriguing collection of talent, and these young Hawks will be playing to win.

For the longer term, the Hawks will have as many as six first round draft picks in the next three drafts. New Hawks GM Travis Schlenk has stated the goal of retooling the roster while remaining competitive. Atlanta has managed to stock itself with both rising talent and future assets to make that goal more than just a talking point. Look for Atlanta’s rebuild to proceed rapidly.

Buddy Grizzard has written for ESPN.com and BBallBreakdown and served as an editor for ESPN TrueHoop Network.

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NBA

NBA Standout Player Watch – Jan. 26

Basketball Insiders releases its first standout player watch of the year for the Eastern Conference. Tristan Tucker highlights some of the players that have shown out but are still vastly underrated.

Tristan Tucker

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This season, the All-Star game will not be played, though players will still be able to receive the honor and go down in the record books all the same. While players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and many more are surefire All-Stars, Basketball Insiders wants to give credit to some of the players that are being overlooked around the league.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at Basketball Insiders’ first edition of its standout player watch from the Eastern Conference, in no particular order.

Jerami Grant

When the Detroit Pistons signed Grant, someone that averages 9.8 points across his career, to a three year, $60 million deal in the offseason, everyone around the NBA raised their eyebrows. It was then reported that the Denver Nuggets offered the same deal to try and keep Grant, but he took on a role that would see him be the feature offensive piece in Detroit.

That move has completely paid off and Grant is having a year that almost no one, other than himself, could have expected. The 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 24.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and .9 steals per game, all career highs.

Grant is also having his most efficient season beyond the arc, shooting 38.2 percent from deep on 6.9 attempts per game, a fairly high number.

The Pistons are bad, there’s no way to sugarcoat that, but Grant alongside other pleasant surprises in Josh Jackson, Wayne Ellington and Saddiq Bey have made the team enjoyable to watch. Grant is playing like a legitimate superstar and should be named to the All-Star team this year, in whatever form that may take.

Zach LaVine

Over the last three seasons, LaVine has continued to improve and this season is no different. Despite averaging 23.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 45.3 percent shooting from the floor and 37.4 percent from deep across his Chicago Bulls career, LaVine has yet to make an All-Star team.

Perhaps that will all change this season, as LaVine is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists and blocks, plus close to a 50/40/90 split. The Bulls are decent this season, currently at 7-9, but for LaVine to be an All-Star lock, they’ll likely need to be in playoff position at the time of All-Star selections.

Jaylen Brown

Brown appeared on Basketball Insiders’ week one MVP ladder, and that was no mistake. There’s a reason Brown was never included in any potential James Harden trade chatter, no matter how much the Houston Rockets may have wanted him – and that’s because he’s the real deal.

This season, Brown is the seventh-leading scorer in the league and is putting up an astounding 27.3 points, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 43 percent from deep on nearly seven attempts per game.

The Boston Celtics haven’t been at full strength for much of the season, without Jayson Tatum as he deals with a case of COVID-19, but Brown has his franchise among the frontrunners in the Eastern Conference nonetheless.

Julius Randle

Randle had a season to forget last year after signing with the New York Knicks on a three-year, $62 million contract in the summer of 2019, as he took a dip in scoring and efficiency across the board from his breakout season the year before with the New Orleans Pelicans.

Something changed in the 6-foot-8 power forward over the offseason, as he is having a career year with the Knicks and has the team firmly in the playoff picture with an 8-10 record. The main difference in Randle’s game has been his shift in playstyle, transitioning to a playmaking big instead of someone that’s primarily an undersized low post threat.

Randle is averaging career highs in multiple statistical categories, up to 22.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game.

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic is criminally underrated year after year and this season is more of the same. One of the only reasons the Orlando Magic is able to remain competitive in the face of huge injuries to key players like Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu is the play of Vucevic.

Vucevic has been giving it his all this season, putting up a career-high in points per game with 23.2 and has put in the work necessary to improve his long-range game. He’s shooting 42.6 percent from three on 6.4 attempts per game, by far and away the best deep shooting performance of his career.

While Vucevic has been named to an All-Star team before, his name is rarely mentioned when discussing the best bigs in the league, a narrative that he’s doing his all to change.

Domantas Sabonis/Malcolm Brogdon/Myles Turner

So many players have been playing stellar ball for the Indiana Pacers that it was impossible to narrow this selection down to just one.

Sabonis has downright played his way into the MVP conversation, notching a double-double in every single game he’s appeared in this season. Sabonis was an All-Star last year, and his play has continued to improve as he’s averaging 20.9 points, 12.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game.

Brogdon has also played his way into the MVP race, having been included in Basketball Reference’s ladder in the first month alongside Sabonis. It’s not hard to see why as he’s averaging what is by far a career-high 21.9 points with 7.1 assists on 39.5 percent shooting from deep on 7.1 attempts per game. Brogdon has also improved his on-ball defense, averaging 1.6 steals per game, a career-high.

Meanwhile, Turner may just be the most overlooked of them all, as he’s the heart and soul of this Indiana defense. Turner should be firmly in the lead for the Defensive Player of the Year award, as he’s holding opponents to shoot below league average and has averaged a whopping 4.1 blocks per game.

Honorable mentions: De’Andre Hunter, Gordon Hayward

It was hard to narrow this list down in the first place, with so many notable performances coming out of the Eastern Conference on a nightly basis. OG Anunoby and Chris Boucher are showing out for the Toronto Raptors and are helping that team back into the playoff picture, Shake Milton looks like one of the best guards in the conference while Tobias Harris is revitalizing his career under Philadelphia 76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers.

However, our honorable mentions this week are De’Andre Hunter and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are playing at a near All-Star level.

Hunter made the jump into a lead wing for the Atlanta Hawks after a promising first season and is up to 17.4 points per game, upping his efficiency across the board and fresh off a 33-point performance versus the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Charlotte Hornets’ signing of Hayward to a huge deal was widely panned across the league but the Hornets were always going to have to empty their pockets to get a player of his caliber. Hayward is averaging 24.1 points per game and is eerily close to a 50/40/90 shooting split. Hayward, alongside teammate Terry Rozier, have the Hornets in contention for a playoff spot, with both players playing at extremely high levels.

With so many outstanding players in the league, this list will be sure to change on a weekly basis. Be sure to check back at Basketball Insiders to see which players continue to shine!

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NBA

What We Learned: Eastern Conference Week 4

What did we learn about the Eastern Conference this week? Jonathon Gryniewicz takes a look in the most recent edition of Basketball Insiders’ “What We Learned” series.

Jonathon Gryniewicz

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It’s not even a month into the NBA season, but the 2020-21 Eastern Conference has already looked super competitive, with 14 teams within six games of each other. There’s bound to be some separation in the coming weeks, don’t expect any team to go down easy.

But which have paced the East? Who’s flopped? Let’s take a look.

The New Look Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets big three of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and the newly acquired James Harden recently played their first game together against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The back-and-forth game ended in a double-overtime, 147-135 Nets loss. The three of them had plenty of time on the court together and divvied up the scoring; Durant scored 38 points on 25 shots in 50 minutes; Irving 37 points on 28 shots in 37 minutes; and Harden 21 points on 14 shots in 51 minutes.

But, outside of the box score, what did we learn about this team from their first performance?

You never want to jump to conclusions, but it’s easy to see that their offense could be dominant. When those three were on the court together, Harden served as the de facto point guard while Irving and Durant took their turns in isolation situations. Of course, in such an iso-based offense, there wasn’t much player movement beyond the trio, but they are so good at taking their own man off the dribble they can always get a good shot. What should make them even harder to guard is the fact that they’re all prolific three-point shooters; two can space at the three point line, while the other can use that extra space to either score themselves or collapse the defense and kick it outside.

Of course, there’s some work to be done. Harden and Irving combined for nine of the team’s 16 turnovers, while each of the three took their fair share of shots maybe just a bit too early in the shot clock. Defensively, Brooklyn is a major work-in-progress. Their closing lineup of Harden, Durant, Irving, Jeff Green and Joe Harris would appear to be solid but doesn’t offer much in terms of switchability and consistent rim protection. Beyond that, there isn’t much to be excited about.

Depth could also be an issue. They recently added Norvel Pelle to compete with two-way rookie Reggie Perry for backup center minutes. The team may have to look into an addition on the wing, too; while they currently roster Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, the three are young and, so far this season, have proven inconsistent at best. A veteran that could provide some bench stability should be the priority.

Kendrick Nunn is Emerging for the Miami HEAT

In recent days, Kendrick Nunn has played his best basketball in nearly a year.

The 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up, Nunn struggled in the Orlando Bubble last season as he saw a continually diminished role in Miami’s run to the NBA Finals. He started this season on a similar note, as he averaged only 5.5 points and played in just six of the HEAT’s first 12 games.

But, with Jimmy Butler and other key players dealing with injury, Nunn has seen a resurgence. In Miami’s last six games, not only has he played heavy minutes, but Nunn has flourished to the tune of 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He’s also shot 37.8 percent from three and 50 percent from the floor.

Of course, there’s the question of the competition. Nunn’s success has come against the Nets aforementioned suspect defense, as well as the Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors, two teams that have struggled mightily to start the year. Still, the spark he’s shown should help him maintain a role going forward, even after Butler and the rest return to the court.

If he can maintain hold down a role, or at least a bit of that spark, Nunn could prove a massive boon for Miami, whose offense has been pretty mediocre in the early going.

The Indiana Pacers Injury Woes 

Under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, the Pacers’ 2020-21 season has seen a terrific start. Through 12 games, Indiana is  8-4 and have played a fun, up-tempo brand of basketball.

That said, they’ve had to deal with a lot on the injury front. After they netted Caris LeVert in the four-team blockbuster that sent Harden to Brooklyn, a mass was found on one of LeVert’s kidneys and he has since been ruled out indefinitely.

Myles Turner, meanwhile, just returned from a two-game absence due to an avulsion fracture in his right hand. In his absence, the Pacers’ defense just didn’t look the same, giving up 129 and 124 points to the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, respectively. The team started the season without Jeremy Lamb and has since lost T.J. Warren to a foot injury that is expected to hold him out for most of the season as well.

No team can lose two starters and expect to continue playing at the same level. If they can’t get healthy, expect it to play a major role in their standing and playoff position at the end of the season.

It will be interesting to watch the East over the next month to see which teams can separate themselves. Be sure to check back for the next part of our “What We Learned” series as we continue to keep an eye on the NBA all season long.

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NBA

Miami’s Struggles About More than One Player

Drew Maresca assesses the Miami HEAT’s early-season struggles and their statistical slide from the 2019-20 campaign.

Drew Maresca

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The Miami HEAT appeared to successfully turn the corner on a quick rebuild, having advanced to the bubble’s 2020 NBA Finals. It looked as though Miami took a short cut even, rebounding from the LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh era incredibly quickly. Ultimately, they did so through smart drafting – including the selections of Bam Adebayo, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro – plus, a little luck, like the signing of Jimmy Butler and smartly sticking with Duncan Robinson.

But despite the fact that they should have improved from last season, the tide may have turned again in South Beach.

Through 15 games, the HEAT are an underwhelming 6-9 with losses in each of their last two games. Miami is also scoring fewer points per game than last season – 109.3 versus 112  – while giving up more – 113.1 against 109.1.

Miami has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the NBA, and there are some embarrassing and noteworthy loses thus far. They lost by a resounding 47 points to the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this season, with extra harsh defeats of 20 points to the lowly Detroit Pistons and the mediocre Toronto Raptors.

What’s to blame for Miami’s woes? Unfortunately for the HEAT, it’s a number of things.

First of all, they need more from a few of their stars – and it starts at the very top. Jimmy Butler was Miami’s leading scorer in 2019-20, posting 19.9 points per game. But this season, Butler is scoring just 15.8 points per game on a sub-par 44.2 percent shooting. While Butler shot poorly from three-point range last season, too (24.4 percent), he hasn’t connected on a single three-pointer yet in 2020-21. This, coming from a guy who shot 34.7 percent from deep in 2018-19 and 35 percent in 2017-18.

But it’s not just his lack of scoring that’s hurting. Butler is also collecting fewer assists and rebounds as well. He’s averaging only 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, down from 6.7 ad 6.0 last season.

However, Butler’s main struggle this season has nothing to do with any statistic or slump. Butler has missed seven straight games due to COVID-19 protocols. Although to go-scorer wasn’t playing particularly well prior to isolating from the team – scoring in single digits twice – the HEAT are always in better shape if their leader takes the floor with them.

It’s not just Butler either. Tyler Herro also needs to regain his bubble form, at least as far as shooting is concerned. After connecting on 38.9 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts in 2019-20, he’s sinking only 30.2 percent of his 5.3 three-point attempts per game this season.

While Herro is scoring more – 17.2 points per game this season – and doing so more efficiently, he’s doesn’t pose the same threat from deep this season. So while he’s sure to pick it up sooner than later, he must do so to put more pressure on opposing defense.

It’s fair to assume Herro will solve his long-distance shooting woes, but the fact that he’s also struggling from the free throw line is concerning because it speaks more to his form. Herro is still well above the league average, connecting on 76.5 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe, but he shot a scorching 87 percent on free throw attempts last season.

So what’s behind the slump? More importantly, which Herro can the HEAT count on for the remainder of 2020-21? As much as Herro is on track to grow into an incredible player, Miami needs his efficiency to return to last season’s form if they expect to compete. But like Butler, a major part of Herro’s struggles are off the court.

Herro is currently dealing with an injury, having missed the last five games with neck spasms. Coach Erik Spoelstra noted that giving the injured Herro so many minutes before his big layoff likely exacerbated his injuries.

“There’s no telling for sure if this is why Tyler missed these games,” Spoelstra told the South Florida SunSentinel. “But it definitely didn’t help that he had to play and play that many minutes. We didn’t have anybody else at that point. If he didn’t play, then we would have had seven.”

But the HEAT’s struggles are about more than any one player – and that’s a big part of what makes Miami, Miami.

Still, their team stats are equally puzzling, like that the Miami HEAT currently ranks 20th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. In 2019-20, they were 7th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Obviously, something isn’t translating from last year, but what is it that’s missing?

Firstly, the HEAT are only the 18th best three-point shooting in terms of percentage. Last season, Miami was 2nd by shooting 37.9 percent. Herro returning to his old self should help quite a bit, and Butler making at least a few threes should improve spacing, too.

But it’s not just three-point shooting as the HEAT ranked last in field goal attempts last season, tallying just 84.4 attempts per game. And while they’re last again this season, they’ve managed to average even fewer attempts per game (81.7) despite maintaining nearly all of their roster.

The HEAT are also last in offensive rebounding, which translates to fewer field goal attempts and fewer points. And while Miami was 29th in offensive rebounds last season, they’re corralling 2.1 fewer rebounds this season (6.4) than in  2019-20 (8.5). What’s more, Miami is now last in total rebounds with only 40.9 per game. A number that also represents a fairly significant change as the HEAT were 17th a season ago with 44.4 per game – whew!

Lastly, Miami is turning the ball over more often than nearly any other team – sorry, Chicago – in 2020-21. During the prior campaign, the HEAT were barely middle of the pack, turning the ball over 14.9 times per game, a mark that left them 18th-best in the league. This season, they’re 29th and turning the ball over 17.7 times per game – dead last in terms of turnovers per 100 possessions.

It’s not all bad news for the HEAT, though. Bam Adebayo looks great so far, posting 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Second-year stud Kendrick Nunn is averaging 21.5 points on 56 percent shooting through the past four games; while Duncan Robinson is still a flame thrower, shooting 44.4 percent on 8.4 three-point attempts per game.

The HEAT’s upside is still considerable, but it’s easy to wonder if they captured magic in a bottle last season.

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