In July, the NBA’s salary cap is expected to jump from the current $70 million to $92 million, dramatically increasing spending power throughout the league.
Most teams will be armed with cap room, but to project how much exactly will take more than just looking at the salaries of players under contract for the 2016-17 season.
A variety of cap holds factor into a team’s salary. Some can be removed via renouncement, others are set in stone.
Empty Roster Charges
In fact, a team with absolutely no players has 12 cap holds at next season’s rookie minimum of $543,471. That’s a total of just under $6 million, which would give a team with no players $86 million in space under a $92 million cap.
The logic behind 12 empty roster charges has to do with the regular-season minimum of 13 players on the roster. The idea is: what is the absolute most available to that 13th player, if everyone else on the roster is making the least a team can possibly spend?
Of course, no teams have zero players this summer, but they will have empty roster charges to reach 12.
A players’ salary counts against the cap, with any incentives earned in 2015-16 considered “likely” for 2016-17. Unlikely incentives do not go against a team’s cap.
The Indiana Pacers have 11 players under contract for next season. While both Glenn Robinson III and Shayne Whittington are non-guaranteed, their salaries go against the cap unless waived.
The Pacers have $59.3 million in salaries, and one empty roster charge, leaving $32.2 million in space.
Cutting Whittington would reduce the team’s salary by $980,431, less than an empty roster charge ($543,471) – giving the Pacers just an extra $436,960 in cap space.
First-Round Salary Scale
The Indiana example is not entirely complete. The team also holds the No. 20 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
Until a first-rounder is signed, their base salary, as defined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, is their cap hold for the team.
In most cases, first rounders will sign for the maximum of 120 percent of their scale salary. Once they do sign, that becomes their cap number.
For the Pacers, their pick has a cap hold of $1.3 million, which takes the place of the aforementioned empty roster charge.
Instead, with 11 rostered players and the draft pick, Indiana has $61.1 million in salary with $31.4 million in cap space.
If a drafted player agrees not to sign for the entire season, in writing, that cap hold can be removed from the books. The pick can also be renounced outright (an extremely rare occurrence in the first round).
Unsigned second-round picks do not take up any cap space. In fact, they can be signed at the rookie minimum in place of empty roster charges, without reducing cap room.
Teams over the cap can use a variety of exceptions including the Mid-Level ($5.6 million for 2016-17), Bi-Annual ($2.2 million) and any Trade or Disabled Player Exceptions that may have been generated.
Teams can renounce their exceptions or elect to hold onto them to stay over the cap, although they automatically evaporate if the team is unable to reach the salary cap.
With the Pacers, if they would add the Mid-Level and Bi-Annual to their cap figure, it would take the place of any empty roster charges.
The revised total would be $68.4 million in salary. Since the team would still be $23.6 million under the cap, the exceptions would automatically expire.
Before they do, free agent cap holds needs to be added to the puzzle.
Teams can spend up to the salary cap but they can also go over the to re-sign their own players.
To do so, the team must account for their own free agent with a cap hold – the number based on their previous year’s salary and the players’ rights.
Players with Non-Bird Rights, after one season with their team, have a cap hold of 120 percent of their previous salary – the maximum a team can pay without using either cap room or an additional exception.
Should Arron Afflalo opt out his contract with the New York Knicks, his cap hold will be $9.6 million – 120 percent of his $8 million salary.
For Early Bird Rights, after two seasons, the cap hold formula is 130 percent. Players can sign up to 175 percent of their previous salary, or 104.5 percent of the league’s average salary (the exact figure won’t be computed until the end of the July moratorium).
Marvin Williams’ Early Bird cap hold with the Charlotte Hornets, based on his $7 million salary, is $9.1 million.
Full Bird Rights are more complex. While players can be paid up to the maximum (with the amount determined by years of service), their cap hold is based on the “estimated” average salary, which is currently set at $5.7 million.
Additionally, first-round picks coming off their first contract are treated differently than other free agents.
For first-rounders, if they earned less than the estimated average salary, their cap hold is 250 percent of their previous salary.
Bradley Beal of the Washington Wizards had a salary of $5.69 million for 2015-16. His cap hold this summer is $14.2 million.
If a first-rounder earned the estimated average salary or higher, their cap hold is 200 percent of their previous salary. No one in the 2012 draft class fits this criterion this past summer. Had Beal earned an additional $44,326 last season, he would have reached the estimated average salary, and his cap hold would have shrunk to roughly $11.5 million.
For players with Bird Rights, who are not first-round picks coming off their first contracts, the percentages are 190 percent for those below the estimated average salary and 150 percent for those above.
Al Horford’s cap hold, with the Atlanta Hawks, will be $18 million – 150 percent of his $12 million earned last season.
Courtney Lee’s cap hold, with the Charlotte Hornets, will be $10.8 million – 190 percent of his $5.7 million earned last season.
Rights transfer via trade, in most cases. A player’s cap hold will not be more than the maximum salary for the coming season.
A player on a minimum contract works differently; their cap hold is the minimum whether they have Non-Bird, Early Bird or Full Bird rights.
Once that player re-inks, their actual salary is their cap hold; if they are renounced, or leave for another team, their hold comes off completely.
As if it wasn’t already complex, there are other caveats, like declined first-round options, non-first round restricted free agents, and starter criteria that add further wrinkles to computing a players’ cap hold.
Pacers forward Solomon Hill’s option was declined, making his cap hold the $2.3 million he would have made had the team taken the option.
Undrafted Miami HEAT guard Tyler Johnson has a cap hold of $1.2 million, provided Miami makes him restricted with a qualifying offer before July.
Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson will have a $2.7 million cap hold once he receives a qualifying offer – based on the number of games he started, and minutes played, last season.
Until a team renounces a players’ rights, they have a cap hold. The Oklahoma City Thunder still have a cap hold for Derek Fisher at a minimum salary of $980,431 for next season. Renouncing is strictly a clerical task, but by and large, teams don’t take that step until necessary.
The Los Angeles Clippers previously waived and stretched out the salaries of Carlos Delfino, Jordan Farmar and Miroslav Raduljica.
Combined, the team’s trio of former players will take up $1.4 million in cap space.
Example: Pacers’ Cap Position
At the last tally, the Pacers had $68.4 million in salary, including the Mid-Level and Bi-Annual Exceptions.
Indiana also has Non-Bird rights on Jordan Hill, who earned $4 million last season, yielding a cap hold of $4.8 million.
Ian Mahinmi also made $4 million, but with Bird Rights, his cap hold is $7.6 million.
Ty Lawson’s hold is just the minimum at $980,431. Solomon Hill’s cap hold was previously listed as $2.3 million.
All-inclusive, the Pacers reach just $84.1 million in team salary, which is $7.9 million below the cap. Since the team is under, they will lose their Mid-Level and Bi-Annual Exceptions, reducing their total to $76.2 million with $15.8 million in spending power.
Indiana can max out their space by waving Robinson and Whittington, while also renouncing their free agents. The team can also look to draft a player who agrees to stay overseas for a year.
If so, the Pacers would have nine players with three empty roster charges of $543,471 each, $58.9 million in team salary and $33.1 million in cap room.
Perhaps more realistically, the team might keep Robinson, Whittington, along with Mahinmi’s cap hold and will draft a player at No. 20 to join the team immediately.
That combination would give the Pacers $23.8 million in cap space, slightly under the projected maximum ($25.9 million) for players with seven-to-nine years of NBA experience (like guard Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley).
Waiving Robinson and Whittington pushes that space up to $25.3 million, but the Pacers wouldn’t have to make those decisions until they actually have a free agent commitment that requires additional space.
The Pacers can also look to make trades to open up more spending power. Player buyouts can also be an option.
Should Indiana find a taker for what could be roughly $25 million in spending power, they would then have the ability to go over the cap to re-sign Mahinmi to a contract starting above his $7.6 million cap hold.
Finally, once teams like the Pacers go over the cap, they gain the $2.9 million Room Exception to sign player(s) for a maximum of two seasons.
Who Will Be King Of LA?
With the NBA season upon us, Jordan Hicks takes a look at the two favorites to win it all – who both happen to hail from the City of Angels – and points out why a certain team could end up on top.
As we all know, since the Lakers lost last night, they are overrated, don’t have nearly enough shooting and are overall an ugly fit on the court. If the Lakers would’ve won, they’d be the front-runners for a ring, gel perfectly and could score from anywhere on the court. The best part of the NBA is that it’s a marathon – not a sprint. Sure, all 82 games matter, but it’s not very likely that a single regular-season game holds much of anything come playoff time.
What we are going to explore in this article will be a look into who really has what it takes to be the top-dog out of Los Angeles this season. Both teams are considered to be top-three finishers in most people’s rankings, but who has a better chance of getting a higher-seed, making it further in the playoffs and – in the end – hoisting the Larry O’Brien?
Let’s first take a look at some of the predictions featuring these teams that stem from Basketball Insider’s yearly NBA Predictions article (found here) and break them down, starting with the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers will not be a top-four seed in the Western Conference
At first glance, this take seems off. The Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis – how could they finish anything other than the top two? But when you dig into the facts, it seems plausible.
LeBron’s last season in Cleveland ended as the fourth seed. The year prior – although they were the best team out East – they still nabbed just the second seed.
Anthony Davis has never finished higher than a sixth seed and only ever helped New Orleans to the playoffs twice since being drafted in 2012.
Combining Davis and James certainly improve the chances of the Lakers getting a higher seed in the playoffs, no one will argue that, but things are different this time around, too. LeBron is a year older. He and Davis have yet to play any official basketball together. And, most importantly, they are in the Western Conference. Yes, the same conference where non-playoff teams would be a top-four seed in the East.
LeBron’s wake-up call in the West was missing the playoffs for the first time since his second season. Yes, he missed a chunk of the season due to injury, but they still lost enough key games with him on the floor to not use it as an outright excuse.
Is this is a hot take? It should be considered lukewarm at best. The Lakers have enough talent to finish as a top-four seed, but there’s a real chance they won’t. They’ll be directly competing with the Clippers, Rockets, Jazz, Nuggets, and Trail Blazers for home court in round one, and I don’t think anyone apart from LeBron superfans will be surprised if they fall to a fifth-or-worse seed come playoff time.
Despite the eventual whispers about Frank Vogel’s job security, he will end the season as head coach of the Lakers
This one is interesting. Vogel was not the sexy name coach that many had envisioned when he was selected to head the Lakers. He had success early on in his career, leading Indiana to back-to-back conference finals appearances, but was most recently coaching Orlando to just 25 wins in the 2017-18 season. To say he was the Lakers’ first choice is laughable, but he wasn’t a horrible hire considering who was available.
Yes, there may be whispers of him being fired if they get off to a slow start, but the Lakers have too much talent to assume Vogel won’t make it until at least the offseason before they consider letting him go. Then, maybe the dream of every NBA Twitter user will come true and the Lakers will hire Magic Johnson as the head coach for the 2020-21 season. No? Yeah, that definitely won’t happen.
Now, moving on to the Clippers.
Los Angeles Clippers – NBA Champions
Clippers over the Philadelphia 76ers seems to be the consensus when it comes to the ending of the season. And how can you see it another way? On one hand, we can’t keep expecting LeBron to turn in these super-human performances. One of the few players who kept up exceptional play deep into his career was Karl Malone, but even he started playing professionally after multiple years of college ball. LeBron came straight from high school. The man has literal MILES on his body.
On the other hand, the Clippers are downright good. The team is largely the same from last season where they won two games on the road against a healthy Warriors team that included Kevin Durant. Add to that roster one Paul George and one Kawhi Leonard – those are *pretty* solid additions. The Lakers may have added AD, but they had to gut the core of their roster to do so. The Clippers didn’t lose all that much if we are being honest. Danilo Gallinari is nice, but not essential, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be really solid one day, but he wasn’t necessarily moving the needle. Even better, the Clippers held on to the most valuable rookie on their roster last season in Landry Shamet. He shot 45 percent from three last season after being dealt to the Clippers!
The Lakers will be good, no doubt. But the Clippers just might be better. And that will be enough to get them to and past The Finals as champions.
Andre Iguodala will be traded – but not to the Lakers or Clippers
This seems very realistic. Iguodala will likely be on the move. He won’t want to play for the Grizzles and in turn, Memphis will gladly accept any asset that Iguodala returns, but it’s just doubtful that either Los Angeles team will have the best offer.
Virtually every other team in the West will have someone or something that exceeds what the Lakers or Clippers can offer, so neither franchise will be able to net the veteran forward for some significant playoff help.
Whose roster is better?
The Clippers have the superior head coach in Doc Rivers, superior duo (very slightly) in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and the superior role players in Montrezl Harrell, Landry Shamet, Lou Williams, and Patrick Beverley, to name a few. It wouldn’t be out of pocket to say that both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are individually better than both Leonard and George.
What this means is that the George-Leonard duo meshes better. In that, you have two elite defenders, as well as two incredibly talented shooters and playmakers. They are both long and athletic, and both have the ability to change the flow of the game at almost every level. LeBron and AD may be objectively better players, but no matter how well they play together, it likely won’t be on the same field as PG and the newly-dubbed “Terminator.”
The last few paragraphs make it seem like the Clippers are hands-down better than the Lakers, but that just isn’t the case. If LeBron can get back to the same form he had during the 2017-18 playoff run, the Lakers will be scary good. Davis is still young and should be plenty healthy with his lack of play last season. The same goes for LeBron. If those two can find a groove, there isn’t a single team in the NBA with a duo that is defensively skilled enough to stop them. The Lakers’ defense will certainly be called into questions at times, but both JaVale McGee and AD are ample enough rim protectors to keep it from becoming too much of an issue.
Another factor that may push the Lakers past the Clippers is the injury issues that could end up haunting the red and blue brand. George will miss the first 10-plus games recovering from dual shoulder surgery. Kawhi, on the other hand, has quite a history of random injuries and more-than-normal load management DNPs. If they lose key games due to inactive players, it could really mess up their seeding and cause them to lose a seven-game series largely due to missing out on homecourt.
With all this being said, it seems plausible that Clippers come out as the kings of LA. The Lakers just don’t have the overall talent to match the Clippers.
But if anything, the game you witnessed last night will have loads of information to analyze and digest moving forward. Just, please, take the results with a grain of salt. As previously mentioned, the NBA season is long. But one thing is certain: we as viewers are in for an incredible ride this year!
The NBA Ten Years Ago
With the season finally here, Matt John takes a look at what the NBA was like ten years before, and the implications it had on today’s league.
Here we go again!
Last year, this writer dove into what the association was like ten years before the incoming season. Now here we are again. We’re traveling back to the year 2010. Back when the iPad was first sweeping the nation, the economy was still in the toilet, and the Toy Story trilogy had concluded on a high note. Or so we thought.
Coming into the 2009-2010 season, it seemed the season itself wasn’t what everyone was paying the most attention to. What was on everyone’s minds was the upcoming free agency of one LeBron James.
Following Cleveland’s shocking playoff exit in the Conference Finals, there started to be rumblings that James’ days as a Cavalier were numbered. We all know what happened the following summer, which is worth discussing next year. At the time, however, Cleveland’s top competitor for James’ services was believed to be the New York Knicks.
Even though the Knicks hadn’t been to the playoffs in almost a decade, and were still washing off the stink of Isiah Thomas’ managerial tenure, they still had their prestige of being a legendary franchise by their side. Meanwhile, everyone else in the league was gearing up for an upcoming epic free agency period.
This may sound irrelevant now since we didn’t get our answer until after the season ended, but this hoopla all started circulating just before the 2009-2010 season started, and it would never go away. In fact, we saw several cap-clearing moves by teams in order to facilitate a potential deal for James, so how could it? As for the season itself, we still got one entertaining enough that James’ decision didn’t distract all that much.
Now last year, this started off by asking how well the team who won the championship in this specific year would do in the modern NBA. The Lakers repeated as champions in 2010 with almost the exact same team, so there’s not much use in asking if they could do it in today’s league, so we’re not going to start there.
Where we’re going to start, however, is the little change the Lakers made before they went on their road to repeating — Replacing Trevor Ariza with Ron Artest.
More Talent Does Not Equal Higher Ceiling
In the summer of 2009, we saw quite a few (declining) stars who went to new situations either to rehabilitate their career image and/or to get a ring. Ron Artest, Vince Carter, Rasheed Wallace, Shaquille O’Neal, and Allen Iverson all found new homes before the fall of 2009. It was so repetitive among aging stars that we were quite shocked when Grant Hill opted to re-sign with the Suns when contenders were inquiring about his services.
Because of this, the ceilings for all the teams involved — minus Memphis, who Iverson was employed with for exactly three games before his release — was projected to be even higher than they already were.
The Lakers were adding a 17-point scorer and a former defensive player of the year. The Celtics were adding a big who made the all-star the previous season that was coming off their bench. The Cavaliers were adding a reigning all-star and all-NBA center. The Magic were adding an electric 20-point scorer. The already elite teams managed to get better on paper.
But when they took the court, they weren’t. At least not really. The star-studded additions didn’t hurt the teams too much when their seasons ended, but they didn’t add any new dimensions.
Before coming to the Lakers, Artest was usually a focal point in the offense, so he was used to doing things his way. That’s what made him such an awkward fit in LA since the Lakers already had an established pecking order with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum. They wanted Ron to be a 3&D wing, but he was used to being so much more. Artest would later hit two enormous shots in the Lakers’ playoff run, but he never really found his stride in Los Angeles.
Rasheed Wallace should have been a perfect third big off the Celtics bench. He had plenty of playoff experience, and his skillset alone should have made it easier for Boston to weather Kevin Garnett’s recovery following a devastating knee injury. Instead, ‘Sheed came into the season out of shape, played lackadaisical on both sides of the floor, and didn’t really try until the postseason came around. Though he gave his all when it counted, his frustrating play made him one of the least-liked Celtics in recent memory.
Of the stars that have been brought up, Vinsanity did the best for what his team asked him. Vince Carter was handed a bigger role than the previous two mentioned. He was supposed to fill in for the departed Hedo Turkoglu. He put up pretty good numbers, but he just wasn’t the same player at 33 nor could he do what Hedo did. Vince definitely tried, and he did an adequate job. In the end, Orlando acquired him just a year or so too late. Sadly, if it weren’t for Nick Anderson, these two free throws would have been the most infamous in Orlando Magic history.
As for Shaq’s time with the Cavs, well that deserves a conversation on its own, which leads us to our next topic.
Less (Shaq) Is More!
When Orlando proved in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals that they could handle whatever LeBron and the Cavs threw at them, it was clear they needed someone who could stop them, or more specifically Dwight Howard, in their tracks. The recently resurgent Shaq could definitely suffice.
Shaq was coming off of his best season in years, averaging 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds while also staying on the court for 75 games. Even at 37, it looked as if Shaq had some juice left after all. Sure, the Suns didn’t make the playoffs, but he looked like a valuable asset to have nonetheless. Cleveland thought as much when they traded for him and, best of all, he was traded for spare parts.
Unfortunately, he didn’t bring the same production as a Cavalier. In fact, Shaq was probably the last player you’d want on that team. The early James years in Cleveland were a team that relied on running the floor. A younger Shaq would have been just fine in a system like that, but the 38-year-old iteration? Not so much. He wasn’t useless when paired with James, but he could not keep up with him.
The Cavs still had the best record in the entire league, but they actually won five fewer games with Shaq than the previous year. In the end, it was all for naught because the Cavaliers never got their rematch with the Magic in the playoffs. A few months later, Shaq would leave Cleveland for the team that eliminated them — the Boston Celtics
As for Phoenix, many thought this was the end for them. Steve Nash wasn’t getting any younger, Amar’e Stoudemire’s contract was up soon and selling off Shaq for basically nothing made it seem like the Suns were Run-n-Done.
But that wasn’t what happened. With Shaq gone, Phoenix re-discovered its style. Nash and Stoudemire were free to run their pick-and-roll game again, while Hill, Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley were excellent complementary pieces on the wing. Add Leandro Barbosa, Channing Frye, youngsters Goran Dragic and Robin Lopez and, suddenly, the Suns had an elite squad again.
With a fully healthy season from almost everyone, Phoenix worked its way to a 54-28 record, placing them third in the Western Conference. The team managed to get past the Trail Blazers in the first round, then stunned the Spurs in a sweep in the second round. The Lakers later stopped the Suns in a hard-fought conference finals.
It’s just amazing how, when you look back at both the Cavs and the Suns in 2010, Shaq, one of the greatest players of all-time, affected both of their seasons because of how badly he fit with both of them.
It’s also depressing to note that ten years later, the Suns have yet to reach the playoffs again.
About The Label “Future Star”
The 2009 draft had some studs coming out of the woodworks. They still have plenty of basketball left in them, but Stephen Curry, James Harden, and Blake Griffin have all done enough in their careers to earn a place in the NBA Hall of Fame. Even players below their tier, e.g. DeMar DeRozan and Jrue Holiday, have had pretty impressive careers in their own right.
But, back in 2010, not much attention was put on any of those five. To be fair, Blake was out for the season was a fractured patella, while Harden was a mere bench player for the Thunder and Curry had a satisfactory rookie campaign on a crappy Warriors squad. Holiday was just a rotation player for Philadelphia, and DeRozan was highly regarded for his highlight-reel dunks and not much else.
When the 2009-2010 season came around, the players who were believed to be the future stars from the group were Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings.
Evans had one of the best rookie seasons the NBA had ever seen, averaging 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Those were numbers repeated only by the likes of Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, and LeBron James in their respective rookie seasons. A team like Sacramento, who needed any kind of excitement after giving away Ron Artest to the Rockets the year before, needed someone who could promise a good future. Evans was exactly what the doctor ordered.
But sadly, that first year was Evans’ peak. Injuries sustained over the years halted his progress as a player and he never approached the status of a future star ever again.
In Brandon Jennings’ case, his status as a future star was even more short-lived. Jennings, who created controversy when he decided to forego college to go play overseas before the NBA, exploded when he first arrived in Milwaukee.
His first full month in the league, Jennings averaged 22.1 points on 42/49/78 splits, which included a 55 point explosion against the Warriors. Because of that, it seemed as though that Jennings would become the player we now see in Stephen Curry.
But, as it turned out, those numbers were just a flash in the pan. Jennings didn’t come close to matching those numbers throughout the remainder of his rookie season. He had a fine year, and even finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, but Jennings failed to match the hype.
No matter how good or bad a rookie may look, we never know a young player’s future until we truly see it for ourselves. It may sound odd now, but there was a legitimate belief that Evans and Jennings were future superstars because of their performances. We now know that’s not the case but, because of their stories, patience is now preached as far as player development and growth are concerned, for better or worse.
What Could Have Been
We talked about how Phoenix and Cleveland did during the 2009-2010 season. But did you know that they almost agreed to another deal at the trade deadline in which the Cavs would have acquired Stoudemire for JJ Hickson?
James and Stoudemire would have been an interesting pairing as both were set to enter free agency. Stoudemire was an offensively stout rim runner who absolutely could have dominated the fast break with James much like he did with Nash. The Cavs opted to take a half measure by trading for Antawn Jamison and retaining Hickson’s because they believed in his potential. But we’ve already gone over what happened after that.
That wasn’t the only almost trade that could have changed a lot. Before Jamison was traded to Cleveland, Washington had discussed trading both him and Caron Butler to the Boston Celtics for Ray Allen and cap filler. Jamison and Butler would have given the Celtics a lot more scoring depth. Plus, at the time, NBA players could go back to the teams that had just traded them, so adding them and getting Ray back could have pushed them over the top. As we’ve previously established, more talent does not lead to a higher ceiling.
But enough about mega-trades that fell through. What about teams that failed to reach their potential because of unfortunate circumstances?
People forget how good the Bucks were during that season. Brandon Jennings’ strong rookie campaign helped them, but Andrew Bogut coming into his own as one of the league’s best all-around bigs as well. Add newly acquired John Salmons, and Milwaukee was a team nobody wanted to face.
That was until Bogut suffered a freak elbow injury just before the playoffs started. Before that, Bogut was on his way to All-NBA honors because of his excellent play on both offense and defense. With him gone, the Bucks never recovered. Bogut himself was never quite the same. Had that injury never happened, the Bucks could have had something special on their hands, which probably would have led to a lack of Giannis Antetokounmpo for them now.
Every year, we wonder what could have been had certain things gone the other way, and the 2009-2010 season was no exception.
There were other storylines that were going on. The NBA suffered a PR crisis after the Wizards had a gun standoff between Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenden. As awful as that was, it inadvertently won them the John Wall sweepstakes. Looking back, who knows how the landscape of the NBA would look today had that not happened?
We talked about stars joining good teams, but one that falls under the radar was when San Antonio traded for Richard Jefferson. Many believed the Spurs were going to take it to a whole new level when they acquired him in the offseason, but Jefferson was bizarrely awful with Gregg Popovich. Thus, the Spurs fell apart and were swept by the Suns in the second round.
The last thing to note was that the 2009-2010 season was when Kevin Durant and the Thunder finally put it together to earn their first playoff berth. While the Lakers eliminated them in the first round, we knew that it was just the beginning for them.
Of course, everything mentioned here culminated in the infamous summer of 2010. But that will be tabled for next year.
50 Predictions for the 2019-20 NBA Season
Drew Maresca and the Basketball Insiders team offer their annual 50 predictions for the NBA season.
Thank god, basketball is back. And with it comes Basketball Insiders’ latest attempt to throw down 50 bold predictions. Even better, it’s this writer’s second go-around with predictions. And with that familiarity comes unwarranted confidence. So, as always, get ready for red hot takes – significantly hotter than last years – from everybody, yours truly and the broader team included.
Over the summer, the site added some new members to the team. Thusly, we’re expanding the “Predictions from Insiders” section of the article to accommodate all of our brilliant minds. Unfortunately, that means fewer picks for me — but on a positive note, bonus predictions for you! Spoiler alert: Some of my teammates’ predictions contradict mine. One of us will be right and only time will tell.
As always, we’ll revisit our predictions following the season. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@DrewMaresca) about any of the predictions — and do so with all of our staff, as well. The more feedback, the better. And with that, let’s commence with some predictions.
Awards + Other Individual Predictions
1. Stephen Curry leads the league in scoring. This is a pretty popular one. He’ll have so many more opportunities without Klay Thompson (knee surgery) and Kevin Durant. Sure, D’Angelo Russell will take some shots; Draymond Green too. But who else is going to get buckets? Curry might need to average 40.
2. And Curry will also win the 2019-20 NBA MVP. This one’s a little less common. And it hinges on my confidence in the Warriors team as a whole. But let’s be honest, the MVP race will be between Curry, Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis – and maybe Damian Lillard. Russell Westbrook and James Harden probably play themselves out of contention given the inherent stat sharing. Ditto for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
And that’s literally all of the favorites. I don’t see a world where Nikola Jokic wins MVP even though he will deserve serious consideration. Joel Embiid could get in on the fun, but I expect him to get his share “load management” with the team prioritizing winning over personal glory.
3. Rudy Gobert will repeat as Defensive Player of the Year. It’s just really hard to anticipate anyone outperforming him. I believe that Draymond Green will be asked to do a little too much in terms of guarding bigs this season. And he’s another year older. And he just got paid. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverly are all very impressive, but they’ll split the burden of defending an opponent’s best wing so it will water down their efforts. Of course, that leaves Gobert as the obvious choice.
4. But Mitchell Robinson will lead the lead in blocks. This isn’t really a hot take when you look at last year’s results, right? Robinson finished fourth last season and he played less than two-thirds as many minutes as any as the three guys ahead of him. He looked more patient in the preseason, which allowed him to remain on the court for longer periods of time. And if he can continue that, he’ll be a defensive force.
5. Spencer Dinwiddie will be named Sixth Man of the Year. It’s not that I don’t love Lou Williams. But the league tires on handing the same guy an award over and over. Williams was the winner for the previous two seasons and in three of the last five. And Williams isn’t getting any younger, either. Ultimately, it may be somebody else’s turn.
6. Jonathan Isaac wins MIP.
7. Luka Doncic is named to a 2019-20 All-NBA team
8. Trae Young will lead the league in assists. The competition will be too tight at point guard for Trae Young to qualify for an All-NBA team like fellow sophomore Doncic, but he’ll have a wildly impressive second season.
And what’s more, Young will average at least 20 points and 10 assists per game. He’ll shoot 36 percent from three-point range — up from 32.3 percent — and he’ll break his own record for made 30-plus foot shots. This feels like multiple predictions tied into one and I got myself in trouble with these types of predictions last year… oh well.
9. Zach LaVine will be an All-Star. Look, I predicted LaVine as MIP last year – and I was wrong. So I’m doubling down. I really like LaVine’s game. He’s dynamic and super athletic, but with just enough polish. And with the Eastern Conference’s lack of All-Star-level guards, LaVine may be a shoo-in.
10. Zion Williamson will play less than 70 games. Williamson’s unique combination of speed and power are among his best attributes. But they’re also going to be his biggest hindrances, too – at least until he’s able to lose a few pounds. Williamson simply puts too much stress on his body, enough that this may become a reoccurring theme. He’ll miss a few games throughout the season – including to kick off the year – as he needs extra rest to recover from the wear and tear of the season.[Sorry, guys, I’m taking credit for this one because it was written at least a week before the injury was announced.]
11. RJ Barrett will win Rookie of the Year. Barrett was primed for an inefficient season following summer league. Well, fast forward a few months and he looks far more prepared for the NBA. He’s proven that he can initiate the offense, while his ability to attack the rim won’t falter as a professional. And, probably just as important, his confidence is through the roof. Already, Barrett looks like a star in the making.
12. Tyler Herro and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will both be named to an All-Rookie team.
Team + Playoff Predictions
13. The Houston Rockets will win fewer games than last season – and the highest they’ll end the year is at the No. 4 overall seed.
It’s not their fault and I’m not blaming the Westbrook-Harden pairing at all. Truthfully, injuries and depth will be the main culprits. Their starting five is actually great: Harden, Westbrook, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Clint Capela. I love those five — but it falls off a cliff from there, especially after Gerald Green’s injury. Austin Rivers is a known commodity, but they’re going to struggle to generate much when they go to their bench.
14. The Philadelphia 76ers will nab the No. 1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference.
15. And they win the Eastern Conference.
16. But they’ll lose in the NBA Finals to the Los Angeles Clippers.
17. The 76ers will be joined in the playoffs by the Bucks, Celtics, Nets, HEAT, Pacers, Magic and Pistons, in no particular order.
18. The No. 8 overall seed in the Western Conference playoff race will come down to the Mavericks, Spurs, Pelicans and Kings, decided by 1.5 games or less. And the Mavericks will prevail.
19. The Clippers and Mavs will be joined in the playoffs by the Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Rockets, Trail Blazers and Warriors.
20. For the first time in 10 seasons, there will be no 60-win teams in the NBA.
21. And there will be more than 10 teams with 50 or more wins for the first time this decade.
22. All qualifying Western Conference teams win at least 50 games – a slight uptick from last season when the eighth-seeded Clippers won 48 games.
23. All eight Eastern Conference playoff teams win at least 44 games – last season, the eighth-seeded Detroit Pistons finished 41-41.
Trade + Coaching Change Predictions
24. The HEAT will trade either Justise Winslow or Goran Dragic before the deadline. Miami was already star shopping this summer when they expressed interested in Chris Paul. One or both can help them get that other star. Dragic’s contract is very tradable as it is more than $19 million and expires following this season. Winslow’s contract is even more movable at $13 million per year and a team option in 2021-22.
25. Speaking of Paul, he is not traded this season.
26. The Cavaliers finally move on from Kevin Love.
27. Andre Iguodala will be traded – but not to the Lakers or Clippers. The Grizzlies will look to collect as many assets as possible for Iguodala and the two Los Angeles-based franchises have limited draft capital left to include. The Rockets are reportedly out, too, as his salary is highly prohibitive for a team that’s already in luxury tax territory.
28. I predicted Scott Brooks would be fired during last year’s go-through, so we’re doubling down here, too. He’ll be let go before the All-Star break.
29. Despite the eventual whispers about Frank Vogel’s job security, he will end the season as head coach of the Lakers.
30. At least three teams will average more than 40 three-point attempts per game. Last season, only the Rockets surpassed the 40-plus mark at 45.1 per game. But as we’ve seen in recent years, teams have become even more smitten with the three-point shot. Hard to say with certainty who it will be, but…
31. Back to the Rockets, they will lead the league in three-point attempts with more than 50 per game. This would’ve sounded ridiculous just a few years ago; but since Mike D’Antoni joined the club, they’ve hoisted 40, 42 and 45 per game over the last three seasons, respectively. Predicting five more three-pointers per game is aggressive, but they can do it.
32. Moreover, teams continue to crank the pace. Franchises eclipsed 100 possessions per game last year and that trend will continue this season, ultimately ending the 2019-20 season with between 103 and 105 per game.
33. Spencer Dinwiddie’s attempt to securitize his “Athlete Investment Token” *(PAInT) is allowed by the NBA, breaking ground on a new era of investing in professional athletes.
34. And the NBA-China situation does not subside. Thus, the 2020-21 salary cap shrinks by at least 10 percent.
35. Pistons trade Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond
— Matt John (@MattJohnNBA)
36. Matisse Thybulle will break the starting lineup for the 76ers and be in the discussion for All-NBA Defensive Team.
37. The Portland Trail Blazers will be the No. 3 overall seed in the Western Conference and will have a third elite scoring options to end the season.
— David Weissman (@dwize04)
38. Denver is the No. 1 overall seed in the Western Conference.
39. Karl-Anthony Towns becomes the seventh player ever to average at least 25 points per game with a true shooting percentage of 65.0 or better.
— Jack Winter (@ArmstrongWinter)
40. Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be the only player in the upper-Midwest to lead his team in all five major statistical categories this season as Karl-Anthony Towns will, as well.
41. Robert Covington will creep into more trade rumors than just about anybody else in the NBA, but he will not move this season.
— Doug Farmer (@D_Farmer)
42. Lonzo Ball to win Most Improved Player in 2019-20.
43. Caris LeVert is an Eastern Conference All-Star.
— Ben Nadeau (@Ben__Nadeau)
44. The Chicago Bulls win a playoff series.
45. Quin Snyder will win Coach of the Year as the Jazz secure the top seed in the Western Conference; Mike D’Antoni will not finish the season as the Rockets’ head coach.
— Chad Smith (@Chad200)
46. The Denver Nuggets will lead the league in Net Rating.
47. The Hawks will be last in defensive rating.
— Quinn Davis (@Quinn_DavisNBA)
48. Los Angeles Lakers will not be a top-four seed in the Western Conference.
49. Ben Simmons will shoot above 25 percent on three-pointers (but on less than one attempt per game).
— Jordan Hicks (@JordanHicksNBA)
50. The Celtics finish with the No. 3 overall seed in the Eastern Conference and Gordon Hayward is an All-Star.
51. The Hawks and Bulls qualify for the playoffs, but Pacers and Warriors will miss out, despite Curry’s heroics.
52. And the Denver Nuggets finish the season as the No. 1 overall seed out and the New Orleans Pelicans squeeze into the eighth and final spot.
— Shane Rhodes (@Share_Rhodes1)
53. The Raptors start off strong, but fizzle out around midseason and miss the playoffs.
54. And they trade either Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol.
— Spencer Davies (@SpinDavies)
And there we have it: another year of predictions in the books. Let’s all celebrate by binge-watching basketball for the next eight or so months. Remember, we’ll reference specific tweets in our “50 Predictions: Revisited” piece following the season, so make sure to connect with us on Twitter about how good or bad you think we’ve done.