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NBA PM: Playoff Picture Update

A look at what the playoffs would look like if they were to start today and the potential shakeups we could see before the end of the regular season next week.

Yannis Koutroupis



Playoff Picture Update

There are six days left in the NBA’s regular season, but the bottom half of the playoff picture is still far from clear in both conferences. In today’s NBA PM, we’re going to take a look at what possible shakeups to expect before the first round playoff matchups get set.

Eastern Conference

If the playoffs were to start today, the matchups would look as follows:

(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
(2) Miami HEAT vs. (7) Washington Wizards
(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (6) Charlotte Bobcats
(4) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Brooklyn Nets

– The Pacers are only a half game up on the HEAT in the win column at 54-25. They could swap positions.
– The Raptors and Bulls have identical records at 46-32. They could swap positions.
– The Nets can climb as high as three or finish as low as seven.
– The Bobcats and Wizards have identical records at 40-38. They could finish as high as fifth.
– The New York Knicks are two games back of the Hawks, the only team yet to clinch in the East. Neither can earn anything higher than the eighth spot.
– The Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks have been eliminated from playoff contention

Games remaining:
Indiana: 3 (@Miami, vs. Oklahoma City, @Orlando)
Miami: 4 (vs. Indiana, @Atlanta, @Washington, vs. Philadelphia)
Toronto: 4 (vs. New York, @Detroit, vs. Milwaukee, @New York)
Chicago: 4 (vs. Detroit, @New  York), vs. Orlando, @Charlotte)
Brooklyn: 4 (vs. Atlanta, vs. Orlando, vs. New York, @Cleveland)
Charlotte: 4 (@Boston, vs. Philadelphia, @Atlanta, vs. Chicago)
Washington: (@Orlando, vs. Milwaukee, vs. Miami, @Boston)
Atlanta: 4 (@Brooklyn, vs. Miami, vs. Charlotte, @Milwaukee)
New York: 3 (@Toronto, vs. Chicago, @Brooklyn, vs. Toronto)

Western Conference

If the playoffs were to start today, the matchups would look as follows:

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Phoenix Suns
(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Portland Trail Blazers

– The Spurs have a three game lead on the Thunder. They could swap positions.
– The Clippers are two and a half games back of the Thunder. They could swap positions, but the Clippers can’t finish higher than second.
-The Rockets are two and a half games back of the Clippers. They can finish no higher than third.
– The Trail Blazers are a game and a half behind the Rockets, they can finish no higher than fourth.
– The Warriors have yet to clinch their spot, they could finish as high as fourth and as low as ninth.
– The Mavericks have yet to clinch their spot, they can finish as high as fifth and as low as ninth.
– The Suns have yet to clinch their spot, they can finish as high as fifth and as low as ninth.
– The Grizzlies have yet to clinch their spot, they can finish as high as sixth and as low as ninth.
– The Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz have been eliminated from playoff contention.

Games remaining:
San Antonio: 4 (@Dallas, vs. Phoenix, @Houston, vs. Los Angeles Lakers)
Oklahoma City: 4 (vs. New Orleans, @Indiana, @New Orleans, vs. Detroit)
Los Angeles: 3 (vs. Sacramento, vs, Denver, @Portland)
Houston: 4 (@Minnesota, vs. New Orleans, vs. San Antonio, @New Orleans)
Portland: 3 (@Utah, vs. Golden State, vs. Los Angeles Clippers)
Golden State: 5 (vs. Denver, @Los Angeles Lakers, @Portland, vs. Minnesota, @Denver)
Dallas: 3 (vs. San Antonio, vs. Phoenix, @Memphis)
Phoenix: 4 (@San Antonio, @Dallas, vs. Memphis, @Sacramento)
Memphis: 4 (vs. Philadelphia, @Los Angeles Lakers, @Phoenix, @Dallas)

Activity Around the League

Here’s a look at the latest movement around in the NBA as teams continue to make additions and subtractions in the final week.

  • Former Syracuse sharpshooter James Southerland has been called up by the New Orleans Pelicans for the rest of the season. Southerland went undrafted last season, but spent time with the Golden State Warriors in summer league and the Charlotte Bobcats during training camp. In 42 games with the Los Angeles Defenders, he averaged 14.6 points, making 65 threes at a 32 percent clip. Part of the reason why they signed Southerland may be that Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon are going to be out for the remainder of the season, making this an ideal time to audition a young player they’re interested in beyond this season.
  • The Chicago Bulls officially announced the signings of Mike James and Lou Amundson today. They recently added Ronnie Brewer as well. All three signings are mainly for depth purposes, although K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune reports that James and Brewer’s deals have non-guaranteed options for next year, so they could potentially earn a spot for next season if they fill their role well enough.
  • Veteran big man D.J. White signed with the Charlotte Bobcats for the rest of the season today. He previously played through two 10-day contracts with them. He has only seen action in two games.
  • The Houston Rockets waived Greg Smith today in favor of Dexter Pittman, who they called up from the Austin Toros. Pittman was averaging 11.3 points and 6.8 rebounds. Smith struggled with injuries this season, only playing in 11 games after a breakout campaign last season. Pittman was on the Miami HEAT for their championship run in 2012 and provides similar size to Smith. He’ll be the third center for the Rockets behind Dwight Howard and Omer Asik.
  • Both Michigan’s Nik Stauskas and Kentucky’s Julius Randle took to Twitter to dispute reports that they have decided to declare for the NBA Draft. However, they’re both expected to eventually declare as Randle is likely going to be a top-eight pick while Stauskas’ stock is pretty safely in the middle portion of the first.

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As part of our daily reports, we try to highlight content on Basketball Insiders you may have missed. Here are the six things you need to read today:

Yannis Koutroupis is Basketball Insiders' Managing Site Editor and Senior Writer. He has been covering the NBA and NCAA for seven years.


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PODCAST: Breaking Down The Western Conference Playoff Race

Basketball Insiders



Basketball Insiders Deputy Editor Jesse Blancarte and Writer James Blancarte break down the Western Conference playoff race and check in on the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers.

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NBA Daily: The Cleveland Cavaliers Need Tyronn Lue

The Cleveland Cavaliers have faced injury adversity and a roster shakeup, and now face uncertainty regarding coach Tyronn Lue’s health.

Buddy Grizzard



The most enduring image of Cleveland Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue came moments after his team sealed the 2016 NBA Finals with a third consecutive win after trailing the Golden State Warriors 3-1. As the team celebrated its historic comeback and readied to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy, one camera focused on Lue, who sat on the bench with his face buried in his hands.

The image tells a thousand words about the pressure Lue was under as Cleveland teetered on the brink of elimination for three games. Rather than sharing the euphoria of his players, it seemed that Lue’s emotions centered around the massive weight that had been lifted from his shoulders. Almost two years later, it appears that burden has caught back up with Lue, whose leave of absence for health reasons complicates things for Cleveland with the playoffs just around the corner.

“It’s like losing one of your best players,” said Cavaliers forward LeBron James after Cleveland’s 124-117 win at home over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday.

Kevin Love returned from a six-week injury absence to post 18 points, seven rebounds and four assists against the Bucks. James likened Lue’s absence to the burden of trying to replace Love’s output while he was unavailable.

“We’ve got to have guys step up, just like guys trying to step up in Kev’s absence,” said James. “We have to do the same as a collective group as long as Ty needs to get himself back healthy.”

There’s optimism that Lue could return before the playoffs, but there’s a great deal of uncertainty given the seriousness of his symptoms, which reportedly included coughing up blood. Lead assistant Larry Drew, a former head coach with the Bucks and Hawks, will handle head coaching responsibilities until Lue is ready to return.

Kyle Korver played under Drew in Atlanta and said he’s confident in his ability to fill in.

“We’d love to have Ty here and healthy,” said Korver after the Bucks win. “Coach Drew has done this for a long time as well. He coached me for a full year in Atlanta. We know he’s fully capable.”

Korver also doubted Drew would introduce any major stylistic changes.

“I think LD’s been Ty’s top assistant for a reason,” said Korver. “They really think a lot alike. They coach very similarly. We miss Ty, but I think the style of what we do is going to be very similar.”

While style and approach should remain unchanged, what could an extended absence for Lue mean for the Cavaliers? Lue cemented his legacy as a leader by keeping the Cavaliers together as they fought back from a 3-1 deficit to the Warriors, but Drew hasn’t had that kind of success as a head coach.

In 2012, the Hawks had a real opportunity to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in Atlanta history. The Hawks faced an aging Boston Celtics squad in the first round. The eighth-seed Philadelphia 76ers awaited in the second round after defeating the top-seeded Chicago Bulls.

After splitting the first two games in Atlanta, the Hawks faced a pivotal Game 3 in Boston with the opportunity to retake home court advantage. Atlanta Journal-Constitution beat writer Michael Cunningham used Synergy Sports to break down every offensive possession for Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo. His conclusion? For three quarters, Rondo did not score a single basket while guarded by Hawks combo guard Kirk Hinrich.

The Hawks traded a package that included a former and a future first-round pick to obtain Hinrich from the Wizards in 2011. But in Game 3, Hinrich failed to score a point despite his effective defense. Apparently feeling the need for an offensive spark, Drew left Hinrich on the bench in the fourth quarter and turned to career journeyman Jannero Pargo.

With Hinrich out of the game, Rondo’s offense came to life as he slashed to the basket at will. Boston opened the fourth with a 13-7 run before Pargo went to the bench and Atlanta closed on a 15-7 run to force overtime. The NBA did not publish net rating data at the time, but we can now see via historical data that the Hawks were outscored by nearly 52 points per 100 possessions in Pargo’s minutes in Game 3. Rather than entrust Atlanta’s season and his own legacy to a player the Hawks traded two first-round picks to obtain, Drew went with Pargo, a career end-of-bench player.

What does this mean for the Cavaliers? It means the team needs to get Lue back. Drew and Lue are both former NBA players who have received mixed reviews as head coaches. But when his legacy was on the line, Lue pushed the right buttons.

For Drew’s part, in his first postgame press conference since Lue’s absence was announced, he remained publicly deferential.

“Coach Lue is the one who makes that decision,” said Drew when asked about lineup combinations. “That’s not my call. We look at a lot of different combinations — whether guys are starting or whether they are coming off the bench — and we assess everything.”

On the critical question of how lineups will be fine-tuned as the Cavaliers prepare for the playoffs, Drew once again emphasized Lue’s active role even as he steps away from the bench.

“I’ll talk to Ty,” said Drew. “He’s got the final say-so. Whatever he wants, then that’s what we’re going to go with. But if he tells me to make a decision, then I’ll have to make the decision.”

With Lue suffering acute symptoms, there’s no way of knowing when he will be ready to step back into the pressure cooker of a leading role for a team with championship aspirations. But the Cavaliers need him and need his steadying influence and instincts. Cleveland is a team that has battled through injuries and a major roster overhaul at the trade deadline. It also faces the pressure of James’ impending free agency decision this summer.

Now, with the playoffs just around the corner, the Cavaliers must endure uncertainty about Lue’s ability to return and lead the team. James has emphasized that Lue’s health overshadows any basketball concerns, but gave his most terse remark when asked about learning that Lue would step away on the same day Cleveland finally got Love back.

“If it’s not one thing, it’s another,” said James. “That was my reaction.”

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A Breakout Season for Joe Harris

Brooklyn Nets swingman Joe Harris talks to Basketball Insiders about his second chance with the Nets.

David Yapkowitz



The NBA is all about second chances. Sometimes players need a change of scenery, or a coach who believes in them, or just something different to reach their full potential. They may be cast aside by several teams, but eventually, they often find that right situation that allows them to flourish.

Such was the case for Joe Harris. Originally drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers with the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 draft, Harris rarely saw the court during his time in Cleveland. He averaged about 6.4 minutes per game over the course of about one and a half seasons with the Cavaliers.

During the 2015-16 season, his second in Cleveland, he underwent season-ending foot surgery. Almost immediately after, the Cavaliers traded him to the Orlando Magic in an attempt to cut payroll due to luxury tax penalties. He would never suit up for the Magic as they cut him as soon as they traded for him.

After using the rest of that season to recover from surgery, he would sign with the Brooklyn Nets in the summer of 2016. He had a very strong first season in Brooklyn, but this season he’s truly broken out.

“I think a lot of it has to do with just the right situation in terms of circumstances. It’s a young team where you don’t really have anybody on the team that’s going out and getting 20 a night,” Harris told Basketball Insiders. “It’s a collective effort most nights and it can be any given person depending on the situation. It’s one of those things where we’re real unselfish with the ball. A lot of guys get a lot of good looks, so your production is bound to go up just because of the system now that we’re playing.”

Known primarily as a sharpshooter in college at the University of Virginia as well as his first stop in Cleveland, Harris has started developing more of an all-around game. He’s improved his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays as well as crashing the glass and playing strong defense.

In a relatively forgettable season record-wise for the Nets, Harris has been one of their bright spots. He’s putting up 10.1 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting from the field while playing 25.4 minutes per game. He’s up to 40.3 percent from the three-point line and he’s pulling down 3.3 rebounds. All of those numbers are career-highs.

“My role, I think, is very similar to the way I would be anywhere that I was playing. I’m a shooter, I help space the floor for guys to facilitate,” Harris told Basketball Insiders. “I’m opportunistic offensively with drives and such. I’m out there to try and space the floor, knock down shots, and then play tough defensively and make sure I’m doing my part in getting defensive rebounds and that sort of stuff.”

Although Harris didn’t play much in Cleveland, he did show glimpses and flashes of the player he has blossomed into in Brooklyn. He saw action in 51 games his rookie year while knocking down 36.9 percent of his three-point attempts.

He also saw action in six playoff games during the Cavaliers’ run to the 2015 Finals. But more importantly, it was the off the court things that Harris kept with him after leaving Cleveland. The valuable guidance passed down to him from the Cavaliers veteran guys. It’s all helped mold him into the indispensable contributor he’s become for the Nets.

“Even though I wasn’t necessarily playing as much, the experience was invaluable just in terms of learning how to be a professional,” Harris told Basketball Insiders. “The approach, the preparation, that sort of stuff. That’s why I learned a lot while I was there. All those good players that have had great, great, and long careers and just being able to kind of individually pick their brains and learn from them.”

When Harris came to Brooklyn two years ago, he initially signed a two-year deal with a team option after the first year. When he turned in a promising 2016-17 season, it was a no-brainer for the Nets to pick up his option. Set to make about $1.5 million this season, Harris’ contract is a steal.

However, he’s headed for unrestricted free agency this upcoming summer. Although he dealt with being a free agent before when he first signed with the Nets, it’s a different situation now. He’s likely going to be one of the most coveted wings on the market. While there’s still a bit more of the regular season left, and free agency still several months away, it’s something Harris has already thought about. If all goes well, Brooklyn is a place he can see himself staying long-term.

“Yeah, it’s one of those things that I’ll worry about that sort of decision when the time comes. But I have really enjoyed my time in Brooklyn,” Harris told Basketball Insiders. “It’s a great organization with a lot of good people, and they try and do stuff the right way. I enjoy being a part of that and trying to kind of rebuild and set a good foundation for where the future of the Brooklyn Nets is.”

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