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NBA PM: The Evolution of the Seven-Footer

Tommy Beer looks at the rise of the three-point shot and how it impacted the NBA’s big men.

Tommy Beer

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The Rise of the Three-pointer and Subsequent Evolution of Seven-Footers

The NBA introduced a potentially revolutionary rule change at the start of the 1979-80 season: shots made from a certain distance (ranging from 22 feet in the corners to 23.75 feet at the top of the key) would be worth three points.

The new rule didn’t have much of an impact initially and many fans and pundits didn’t think it would last.

In those early years, many teams essentially ignored the newly painted lines on the court and rarely attempted shots from downtown – other than the occasional half-court heave to close out a quarter.

For instance, the powerhouse Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA championship in 1981-82 and, over the course of the entire 82-game regular season, attempted a grand total of 94 three-pointers. They made just 13 of them attempts, or 13.8 percent. Magic Johnson led the team with six makes. They made just two more during their entire postseason run.

And it wasn’t as if the Lakers were an anomaly. Only one team in the entire league (the Indiana Pacers) made more than 100 three-pointers over the 82-game regular season in 1981-82.

Even a decade after its introduction, the three-point shot wasn’t a major difference-maker. Still, eventually, the shot started to catch on for certain teams and certain players. There were typically a few guards on each team that would be classified as ‘three-point specialists.’

Let’s fast-forward 25-plus years, shall we?

Simply put, the three-point shot has revolutionized the way today’s game is played. Consider the story of the 2016-17 Houston Rockets. At 22-8, they possess the fourth-best record in the entire league and have been one of the season’s most pleasant surprises. On a related note, they are on pace to shatter every team-related three-point record known to man.

At this time last month, no NBA team had ever attempted more than 49 threes in a single regular-season game. (The Dallas Mavericks launched 49 treys in a win over the New Jersey Nets back in March of 1996 and that record remained for more than 20 years).

Then, last month, on the day after Thanksgiving, the Rockets broke that long-standing record by attempting 50 three-pointers in a win over the Sacramento Kings. But the Rockets were just getting warmed up. Last Friday night, they broke their own newly-minted, all-time record by launching 61 three-point attempts against the New Orleans Pelicans. The next night in Minnesota, the Rockets attempted 51 triples.

Yes, in the nearly 40 years and over 45,000 games played since the NBA introduced the three-pointer, no team had ever attempted 50 treys in a single game. Then, here come the Rockets, who have now done it three times in less than a month.

It is important to note that the Rockets are not some abnormal outlier either. Many teams in today’s NBA are incredibly reliant on long-distance shooting, including many of the league’s elite contenders. The two teams that led the NBA in made three-pointers during the 2015-16 regular season were the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers – the two teams that ultimately ended up squaring off in the NBA Finals.

During that 1981-82 season discussed earlier, the league-leader in made three-pointers was a point guard named Mike Bratz. He made a total of 57 treys, tops in the NBA. Last season, 145 players made at least 60 three-pointers, including Steph Curry, who made 402.

It isn’t simply the attempts that have skyrocketed, it’s also the efficiency. In 1981-82, 21 of the 23 teams in the league shot less than 30 percent from behind-the-arc. The Pacers led the NBA in three-point percentage at 32.6 percent that season.

In 2016-17, all 30 teams are shooting above 30 percent from downtown and 29 of the 30 are shooting above 32.6 percent.

While the entire league is obviously more three-point happy than it has ever been, arguably the greatest surge can be seen in the evolution of the league’s big men.

For most of the last three decades, three-point territory remained a foreign and impenetrable land for NBA bigs. Lumbering centers and burly power forwards were instructed to run down low and camp out in the post. According to Basketball-Reference.com, over the first nine seasons of the NBA’s three-point era, from 1979-80 through 1987-88, no player listed at seven-feet or taller made more than three three-pointers in any season.

In 1988-89, Manute Bol made 20 three-pointers. Bol holds the record among seven-footers for most made three-balls in the 1980s with those 20 threes. Next on the list is Ralph Sampson, who made a grand total of eight.

Well, we now live in a different world.

The 2016-17 season is less than two months old and most teams have yet to play even 30 games; already, 10 different seven-footers have made at least 15 three-pointers at this early stage of the season.

Looking back, the evolution began in the mid-90s, as the European influences began to make their way overseas. The first seven-footer to make more than 20 three-pointers in a season was Vlade Divac of the Lakers in 1993. Then, in 1996, Portland’s Arvydas Sabonis set a new record with 49 triples.

The game continued to expand at the dawn of this century. Wang Zhizhi, by way of China, made 48 threes for the Mavs in 2003. Yi Jianlian also made 48 for the Lakers in 2009. Andrea Bargnani of Italy knocked down 100 three-pointers as a rookie in Toronto in 2007. Per Basketball-Reference, Spencer Hawes became the first American-born seven-footer to make 40 three-pointers in a single season as a Sacramento King in 2009.

Still, the true game-changer was Germany’s Dirk Nowitzki, who forever revolutionized the way we view the league’s taller players. Dirk, the sixth-leading scorer in NBA history, has made 1,707 threes in his storied career, which is by far the most among all seven-footers (Bargnani is currently second with 627).

The Next Step in the Evolution

Nowitzki has averaged 95 made three-pointers per season over his 19-year career and has made more triples than any player seven feet or taller each season this decade. However, that streak will be snapped this year. Nowitzki is dealing with a nagging Achilles injury that has limited him to just five games this season.

The current leader in made three-pointers among bigs is actually a player who measures in at 7’3.

New York’s Kristaps Porzingis has knocked down 60 three-pointers this season. Memphis’ Marc Gasol ranks second (46) and Brooklyn’s Brook Lopez is third (44).

Porzingis and his contemporaries, such as Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid, represent the most recent stages of the ever-evolving big man in the NBA. They are giant sharp-shooters who are athletic and nimble enough to put the ball on the floor and create scoring opportunities for themselves and others, yet long and strong enough to guard the rim and protect the paint on the defensive end of the floor.

Porzingis played his 100th career game on Tuesday night, a victory over the Pacers at MSG. The NBA has been around for 70 years now, but we have never quite seen a player start their career the way Porzingis has. His all-around versatility separates him from the pack.

Prior to Porzingis, no player in NBA history had ever made more than 120 three-pointers and blocked more than 110 shots over the first 100 games of his career. Well, KP has obliterated that record, having already knocked down 141 three-pointers and blocked 185 shots.

Porzingis is up to 60 made three-pointers this season, which means he has more threes than noted marksmen such as Kevin Durant, Kyle Korver and his own teammate Carmelo Anthony.

He also has more blocks (51) than DeAndre Jordan, DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard.

Per NBA.com, Porzingis’ DFG% (what opponents are shooting at the rim when being defended by him) currently stands at 40.6 percent, which ranks first in the league among qualified players – ahead of such defensive monsters as Rudy Gobert (41.7 percent) and Hassan Whiteside (45.8).

Porzingis is averaging over two made three-pointers per game and is shooting over 39 percent from downtown. That’s a higher three-pointer percentage than James Harden, Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard.

Porzingis has grabbed 213 rebounds this season, which is more boards than LeBron James, Robin Lopez and Marc Gasol.

You get the idea.

Oh, by the way, Porzingis doesn’t turn 22 years old until next August.

The New CBA Will Help Teams Re-sign Talented Bigs

Let’s continue to use Porzingis as an example. New Yorkers are obviously hopeful that they will be able to continue watching Porzingis grow and develop in as a member of the Knicks. Earlier this month, they got encouraging news.

The NBA’s new, soon-to-be ratified collective bargaining agreement is great news for Porzingis and other up-and-coming stars because it will make him a whole lot of money. But it’s also good for the Knicks, and their KP-loving fanbase, because it greatly increases the likelihood of Porzingis spending the vast majority of his career in New York.

The first impact Porzingis will see is an immediate raise, which kicks in next season. As part of the new CBA, current rookie-scale contracts get significant increases. For KP, his initial contract was set to pay him $4.5 million in 2017-18 and $5.6 million in 2018-19. Instead, he will now likely make north of $5 million next season and $7.2 million in 2018-19.

Also, Porzingis is now in line to sign a massive extension. In the summer of 2019, once he has completed four years of NBA service, he will be eligible to sign a huge extension that may be worth close to $200 million.

Star players staying with the team that drafted them through the first two contracts of their career is fairly common today, even under the current CBA, due to the financial benefits of doing so. However, what will change under the new CBA is that elite, superstar players will be highly incentivized to stay with their current team on their third contracts as well.

After seeing top-tier players such as LeBron James, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and, most recently, Kevin Durant switch teams in the heart of their respective primes, the league and the players’ union set out to create a major “home-court advantage” that would entice superstars to stay put. Thus, under the new CBA, teams looking to re-sign a player will be able to offer significantly more money (not only contracts longer in length, but also a far greater percentage of the salary cap starting the very first season) than competing franchises.

The qualifications for this new designated player exception are extremely difficult to reach. As reported by our Eric Pincus, to qualify a player must be entering their eighth or ninth season and have remained with the team that drafted them. They also need to be named to any of the three All-NBA teams or as Defensive Player of the Year in either the season preceding the extension or two of the three prior seasons. It will also apply to the league’s Most Valuable Player in any of the three seasons before the extension.

This means that superstars will have every incentive to stay with their original team through their third contract and avoid testing free agency at any point in their prime.

Obviously, we are looking very far down the road, but if Porzingis does develop into the kind of All-NBA caliber player that Phil Jackson and the Knicks believe he is destined to be, the odds are now greatly increased that he will stay in New York through 2030.

Teams can now watch their seven-footers evolve and dominate in new ways without constantly worrying that their talented big man will leave as soon as free agency comes around.

Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Analyst and the Fantasy Sports Editor of Basketball Insiders, having covered the NBA for the last nine seasons.

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2018 NBA All-Star Sunday Recap

Michael Petrower recaps the All-Star Game from Sunday in Los Angeles.

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The 2018 NBA All Star Game had some added appeal this year, with Captains LeBron James and Stephen Curry selecting playground style from the pool of All-Stars. Although it was not televised, it drew a lot of interest to say the least.

Team Lebron was headlined by Kevin Durant (the alleged first pick), Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Kyrie Irving. Sadly, Team Lebron suffered big losses with John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Kevin Love and Kristaps Porzingis going down with injuries. Team Stephen was led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Joel Embiid and Demar DeRozan.

NBA fans were ready to indulge on the highlight real of plays to commence…That was, until the NBA inflicted a marathon-like performance that seemed a bit unnecessary, to say the least. Kevin Hart was at the center of theatrics that had NBA fans scratching their heads questioning what was on their television screen. Fergie topped off the saga with what was one of the more questionable national anthems we’ve seen in recent years. However, if you stuck around long enough, the game started at 8:40 PM EST and the flashy plays that we hoped for, began.

Joel Embiid made his first A;l-Star game appearance and kicked off the scoring festivities for Team Stephen with a ferocious and-one dunk. Team Stephen led all of the first quarter and won the quarter 42-31. Karl Anthony Towns led the first quarter scoring with 11 points. Team LeBron, however would storm back and cut the lead to two, 78-76 at half. LeBron came into his 14th straight All-Star game and lead his team at the half with 15 points. Klay Thompson also lead Team Stephen with 15 points at half.

The second half ensued and after some back and forth between the two teams, Team Stephen was leading by three going into the fourth quarter, 112-109. Team Stephen grew their lead to 11 while LeBron and KD got some rest. But after the two came back in, the 11-point deficit was erased after a LeBron three and the teams were now tied at 144 with 1:16 left in the fourth quarter.

DeRozan would make a free throw to put Team Stephen up one point, but Lebron followed with a strong two-pointer to put his team up one. DeRozan tried to answer, but threw away a pass which resulted in an easy two points for Russell Westbrook to ice the game. Team LeBron was the 2018 All Star Game winner with a score of 148-145.

LeBron James went on to win his third All Star MVP after finishing with 29 points to go along with 10 rebounds, eigh assists and a steal on 12-17 shooting. DeRozan and Damian Lillard lead Team Stephen with 21 points each.

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Rest Assured, the 1-16 NBA Playoff Format Is Coming… Kinda

Based on Adam Silver’s comments, it’s safe to assume that the NBA will soon reformat the playoffs.

Moke Hamilton

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If there’s one thing Adam Silver has proven in his four years as the NBA’s Commissioner, it’s that he isn’t afraid to do things his way.

And if Silver has his way, the league will eventually figure out how it can implement a system that results in a more balanced playoff system. On Saturday, though, he revealed that it’s probably closer to a reality than many of us realize.

During his annual All-Star media address, Silver admitted that the league will “continue to look at” how they can reformat the playoffs to both ensure a better competitive balance throughout and pave the way for the league’s two best teams to meet up in the NBA Finals, even if both of those two teams happen to be in the same conference.

“You also would like to have a format where your two best teams are ultimately going to meet in the Finals,” the commissioner said on Saturday night.

“You could have a situation where the top two teams in the league are meeting in the conference finals or somewhere else. So we’re going to continue to look at that. It’s still my hope that we’re going to figure out ways.”

Since Silver took over the league, he’s been consistent in implementing dramatic changes to improve the overall quality of the game. Although Silver didn’t take over as the league’s commissioner until 2014, he was instrumental in getting the interested parties to buy into the notion that the “center” designation on the All-Star ballot was obsolete.

As a result, beginning with the 2013 All-Star Game, the Eastern and Western Conference teams have featured three “frontcourt” players, which essentially lumps centers in with forwards and eliminates the requirement that a center appear in the All-Star game. That wasn’t always the case.

From overhauling the league’s scheduling to reducing back-to-back games to implementing draft lottery reform to, this year, eliminating the traditional All-Star format which featured the Eastern Conference versus the Western Conference, it’s become clear that Silver simply “gets it” and isn’t afraid to make revolutionary changes if he deems them to be in the overall best interest of the league.

At this point, everyone realizes that something needs to be done about the league’s current playoff system.

Last season, for example, the Western Conference first round playoff series featured the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder squaring off against one another. Only one series—the Los Angeles Clippers versus Utah Jazz—went seven games.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Conference, the first round series that were contested weren’t exactly compelling.

The Cleveland Cavaliers steamrolled the conference to the tune of a 12-1 run to their third consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. It wasn’t the first time that the public questioned the wisdom behind separating the playoff brackets by conference, but the dominance of the Cavs and LeBron James specifically (who is expected to win the Eastern Conference for the eighth consecutive time this season) has caused renewed scrutiny.

The most common solution offered to this point has been to simply take the 16 best teams across the league, irrespective of conference, and conduct the playoffs as normal.

From afar, this solution seems simple enough, but the obvious concerns are twofold.

First, if the Celtics and Clippers, for example, were pitted against one another in a first round series, the travel would be considerable. Private charter flight or not, traveling is taxing, and the prospect of having to make five cross-country trips over the course of a two-week span would certainly leave the winner of such a series at a competitive disadvantage against the opponents they would face in subsequent rounds, especially if the future opponent enjoyed a playoff series that was contested within close proximity.

Atlanta to New Orleans, for example, is less than a one-hour flight.

Aside from the concerns about geographic proximity, the other obvious issue is competitive balancing of the schedule, which seems to be an easier issue to fix.

Using the Pelicans as an example, of the 82 games they play, 30 are played against the other conference—in this case, the Eastern Conference. The other 52 games would all be played within the conference. If playoff seedings were going to be done on a simple 1-16 basis, the scheduling would have to be realigned in a way to essentially pit all teams against one another evenly. It wouldn’t be fair for a team like the Celtics to be judged on the same standard as the Pelicans if the Celtics faced inferior teams more often.

On Saturday night, Silver revealed that the league’s brass has been thinking about this and is trying to find a solution, and in doing so, he may have tipped his hand.

* * * * * *

As a multinational conglomerate, the NBA values the inclusion of as many markets as possible. Wanting to improve the overall quality of the product, though, there are interests that may not align fully.

What’s obvious with this year’s All-Star game is that the NBA has found a way to balance the two.

Rather than eliminating the conference designations altogether and simply choosing the “best” 24 players to be in the All-Star game, the league still chose All-Stars based on their conference, but then distributed them within the pool to allow for better competition.

That’s exactly what Silver revealed the NBA is considering doing with the playoffs. It makes perfect sense, and it’s probably just a matter of time before it’s implemented.

A report from ESPN notes that the idea that the league is kicking around would essentially do exactly what the league did with the All-Star selections with the playoff teams: choose the best from each conference, then disburse them in a way that allows for competitive balance. 

The proposal would have the league’s teams compete as they normally do and would still feature the top eight teams from each conference getting into the playoffs.

Once the teams are qualified, however, they would be re-seeded on a 1-16 basis and crossmatched, on that basis.

It’s not perfect, but compromises never are. The travel issues would still persist, but the league would accomplish two goals: the less dominant conference wouldn’t be underrepresented and discouraged from competing, but the two best teams would still be on opposite ends of the bracket.

An NBA playoffs that featured 11 or 12 teams from the Western Conference would be a ratings nightmare for the league. Eastern Conference cities are less likely to stay up past midnight during the week to watch playoff games, and less competitive markets would frown at the prospect of having to compete against the other conference for a playoff spot. For many small market teams, the millions of dollars generated from a single playoff game often has a significant impact on the team’s operations, so there would naturally be discord.

This system would at least eliminate that contention.

On the positive side, it would allow for the Rockets and Warriors, for example, to meet in the NBA Finals. In both the NFL and MLB, geography hasn’t been a determining factor on which teams battle for the league’s championship.

Why does it have to be in the NBA?

* * * * * *

With the league having begun regular season play earlier this season, at the All-Star break, most teams have played about 57 games. A lot can change over the final 25 games of the season, but if the seeds were frozen today and the league took the top eight teams from each conference and then crossmatched them, the Los Angeles Clippers would be the team that got the short end o the stick.

Although the Clippers have the 16th best record in the league, they would be the ninth-seeded Western Conference team and would thus be eliminated from postseason contention by the Miami HEAT. The HEAT have the 17th best record in the league but are the eighth-best team in the Eastern Conference, so to preserve the conference weight, the HEAT would win out.

This is what the seedings and matchups would look like…

(1) Houston Rockets versus (16) Miami HEAT

(2) Golden State Warriors versus (15) New Orleans Pelicans

(3) Toronto Raptors versus (14) Philadelphia 76ers

(4) Boston Celtics versus (13) Portland Trail Blazers

(5) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (12) Denver Nuggets

(6) San Antonio Spurs versus (11) Oklahoma City Thunder

(7) Minnesota Timberwolves versus (10) Milwaukee Bucks

(8) Washington Wizards versus (9) Indiana Pacers

Here, the Celtics would face the nightmarish scenario of having to travel to and from Portland for their playoff series, while virtually every other series would feature much more friendly travel (especially the Spurs-Thunder and Raptors-Sixers).

The Cavs would have a very tough road to the Finals, having to beat the Nuggets, Celtics and Rockets if the seeds held. The Celtics would have a similarly tough road, as they’d have to get past the Blazers, Cavs and Rockets.

At the end of the day, the Rockets and Warriors would be aligned in such a way as to avoid one another until the championship, but each of the two would face daunting competition. The Rockets would have to go through the HEAT, Wizards and Celtics, while the Warriors would have to face the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Raptors—again, assuming the seeds held.

It would be a benefit to all observers.

One of the unintended consequences of implementing this system would be to make every single game count. If the Celtics were able to move up to the second seed, for example, their road to the Finals, in theory, could become much much easier, comparatively speaking.

The end result would be less resting of players during the course of the season and certainly less instances in which star players take the final week of the regular season off in other to be fresh for the postseason.

Everyone wins.

No, there’s no perfect solution, but just as the league has found a clever way to serve multiple interests as it relates to the All-Star game’s competitiveness, Silver has revealed that the league is at least considering following suit with the playoffs.

Best bet?

It’s only a matter of time before we see it actually see it happen.

It simply makes too much sense, and if there’s one thing the commissioner has already proven, it’s that he isn’t afraid of changing tradition.

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NBA All-Star Saturday Recap

Brian Slingluff recaps All-Star Saturday from Los Angeles.

Basketball Insiders

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Basketball Insiders is here to recap an eventful All-Star Saturday that led to three first-time champs in the various skills contests. Let’s get right to it.

Taco Bell Skills Challenge

In Saturday night’s Taco Bell Skills Challenge, the “Bigs” team, boasting 3 All-Stars, set out to claim a third straight title. The competition kicked off with Joel Embiid coming from behind to best Al Horford, and sharpshooter Lauri Markkanen swishing his first 3 point attempt to eliminate Andre Drummond. On the Guard side, Buddy Hield had an early lead before losing out to Spencer Dinwiddie, and Jamal Murray upset hometown favorite Lou Williams.

In the semifinals, Markkanen was able to dispatch Joel Embiid, who struggled with the pass portion of the competition, and Dinwiddie topped Jamal Murray by making his first 3 pointer for the second consecutive round.

In the Final round, Dinwiddie finally missed a 3 pointer, but it did not matter as he finished with a wire to wire victory over Lauri Markkanen. Dinwiddie, competing in front of his friends and family, was able to end the Bigs’ two year win streak in impressive fashion.

JBL Three Point Contest

The event started off with Tobias Harris scoring a solid 18 points. Wayne Ellington was next, sporting the hot new alternate Miami Vice jersey. Ellington started off cold and heated up on his last three racks, ending up with a score of 17. Devin Booker and former three-point champion Klay Thompson tied for a round-high 19 points. Paul George, Bradley Beal, and Kyle Lowry struggled from the start and never found a rhythm, falling short of making the championship round. Defending champion Eric Gordon never got it going, and would not defend the title, scoring only 12 points.

In the Championship round, Tobias Harris was on fire through the first 3 racks, but quickly got cold, scoring 17 points. Devin Booker was next and could not miss, scoring 28 points, leaving Klay Thompson a high number to match. Thompson fell just 3 points short, and Devin Booker was crowned the 2018 JBL Three Point Champion.

Verizon Slam Dunk Contest

The final and most anticipated event of the night started with Donovan Mitchell bringing out a second hoop, bouncing it off the second backboard and finishing with an impressive windmill dunk, scoring a 48. Victor Oladipo followed with a difficult look-away alley oop dunk attempt that he was unable to complete, totaling 31 points from the judges. Dennis Smith Jr. had a nice reverse double pump that got 39 points and Larry Nance Jr., in a throwback Phoenix jersey, payed homage to his father’s cradle dunk, nailing it almost exactly for a score of 44 points.

Oladipo started the next round of dunks by borrowing Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther mask, and scoring 40 points with a tomahawk windmill dunk. Smith Jr. hit a seemingly impossible reverse 360, through the legs, switching hands dunk for a perfect score of 50. Nance Jr. pulled off a Vince Carter level windmill, nearly missing a perfect score. Mitchell jumped over comedian Kevin Hart to advance to the finals against Larry Nance Jr.

In the Finals, Nance started things off with a windmill alley-oop with some help from Larry Nance Sr., garnering a score of 46. Mitchell completed the difficult one handed alley-oop he had attempted in the previous round, scoring a perfect 50. Nance Jr. answered with an incredible double pass off the backboard dunk, scoring yet another 50 points.  Mitchell ended the contest with a Vince Carter tribute dunk, coming out on top by just two points. It capped off an exciting Saturday night, setting things up for the main event on Sunday, Team LeBron versus Team Stephen.

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