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Preseason Logjams to Watch

Tommy Beer analyzes some of the logjams around the NBA as the 2016-17 season approaches.

Tommy Beer

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The NBA preseason is underway, which means we can start analyzing actual games.

Many teams seemingly have their rotation all set, but there are still a number of fluid situations just two weeks before the start of the regular season. Below, we take a look at few of the more interesting logjams across the league.

Philadelphia 76ers Frontcourt
The Sixers have three young centers on their roster: Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor. All three were drafted in the top half of the lottery. Now that all three are (almost) finally healthy, coach Brett Brown has to figure out how he will distribute minutes in an attempt to keep them all happy. Noel let his feeling be known on the eve of training camp, when he told reporters: “I don’t see a way of it working. It’s just a logjam. You’ve got three talented centers that can play 30-plus minutes a night and three centers can’t play 30 minutes a night. That’s that. Things need to be situated. Obviously, somebody’s got to be moved around. It’s a tough situation, but I can only say so much because I have no say and no power.”

Fortunately for the Sixers, Embiid has looked terrific in the limited minutes he has played. In addition, Okafor is ramping up his workouts and is in the final stages of rehab after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Is a trade inevitable? Ben Simmons being sidelined will open up minutes at power forward if Philly wants to attempt to play two bigs together, but that seems unlikely. As for the PF spot, Dario Saric has been impressive in the preseason and appears to be the favorite to start at the four spot on opening night.

Chicago Bulls Power Forward
The Bulls brought in big names Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo this offseason, but the issue in Chicago is long-range shooting. In today’s NBA, it’s more important than ever to have shooters who can space the floor and knock down threes. Last season, the Warriors and Cavaliers led the league in three-point attempts in the regular season. However, Rondo and Jimmy Butler attempted just 378 three-pointers combined last season. (In contrast, Steph Curry made 402 threes). Thus, the Bulls would ideally prefer to have Nikola Mirotic start alongside Rondo, Wade, Butler and Robin Lopez, with Taj Gibson coming off the bench. Mirotic was the only Bull to make more than 110 threes in 2015-16. However, Nikola has struggled this preseason and been outplayed by Gibson. Mirotic is shooting below 35 percent from the floor and 26.7 percent from behind-the-arc.

Bobby Portis has worlds of potential, but it is probably too soon to ask the 21-year-old to assume starter’s responsibilities. We’ll see whether coach Fred Hoiberg ultimately decides to start Gibson or Mirotic.

New Orleans Pelicans Backcourt
As Jrue Holiday takes time to deal with a heartbreaking personal matter, the starting point guard spot is up for grabs. Tim Frazier was the favorite at the start of the preseason, and has only increased the odds in his favor due to his stellar play. He’s averaging over eight points, eight assists and five rebounds per game, while shooting 66.7 percent from the floor. Langston Galloway will likely backup Frazier.

A nice competition is playing out at shooting guard as well. Both E’Twaun Moore and Buddy Hield have shot the lights out this preseason. Moore is averaging a team-high 17.7 points per contest, while shooting 61 percent from the field and 66.7 percent from three-point territory. Hield is second on the team in scoring, pouring in 17 points per game with a 52 percent/40 percent/100 percent slash line. The Pels may opt to start the veteran Moore, if only to ease Buddy’s rookie transition into the NBA.

Cleveland Cavaliers Backup Point Guard
When Mo Williams announced his retirement last month, the battle for the backup minutes behind Kyrie Irving began. After an impressive showing in the Las Vegas Summer League (15.3 PPG and 3.9 APG), 2016 second-round pick Kay Felder has picked up right where he left off. Felder is averaging nearly 26 minutes per game and 11 points per contest this preseason. He started on Monday night, scoring 15 points and dishing out six assists. The Cavs signed Markel Brown last month, but it appears Felder has secured the spot. However, if the Cavs fail to re-sign J.R. Smith, Brown and Jordan McRae could see minutes at off-guard behind Iman Shumpert.

Milwaukee Bucks Shooting Guard
Khris Middleton is slated to miss six months after tearing his hamstring, which leaves a gaping hole in the Bucks backcourt. Unproven youngsters Rashad Vaughn and Malcolm Brogdon are competing to be the starter. However, neither has shined in the preseason and they will likely end up splitting minutes, with both Michael Carter-Williams and Jason Terry also seeing some time out of position at the two-guard.

Miami HEAT Power Forward and Shooting Guard
Josh Richardson played well as a rookie and was expected to keep his starting gig this season; however, he partially tore his MCL on September 9 and may not be available at the start of the season. It was assumed the newly signed Dion Waiters would fill in should Richardson miss any time, but it was actually Tyler Johnson who started at shooting guard in Miami’s first two preseason games.

With Chris Bosh’s career potentially over, power forward is also an unknown at this point. It will likely either come down to Derrick Williams or Josh McRoberts. James Johnson and Luke Babbit could also earn some time at the four.

Memphis Grizzlies Power Forward
Head coach David Fizdale announced last month that JaMychal Green will be the team’s starting power forward this season, sending veteran Zach Randolph to the bench. Green hasn’t been overly impressive in the preseason, so we’ll see how long this lasts if Green struggles out of the gate or if Z-Bo is unhappy being the Sixth Man.

Boston Celtics Backcourt Backups
Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley are set as the starters, but with Evan Turner in Portland, Terry Rozier is looking forward to an uptick in minutes. Rozier hasn’t done much since being drafted 16th overall in the 2015 draft, but he’s hoping to make his mark in 2016-17. Marcus Smart has already established himself as an elite defender; he is now looking to prove he can contribute offensively as well, by shooting/scoring efficiently and distributing the ball as a playmaker. Rookie Jaylen Brown will also attempt to earn some playing time on the wing behind Jae Crowder. These three young bench players could play an important role in determining whether or not the C’s can unseat the Raptors as champs of the Atlantic Division.

Denver Nuggets Power Forward
Kenneth Faried has long been a fan favorite in the Mile High City. However, Denver’s front office and coaching staff doesn’t seem to hold the same affection for the burly big man, due primarily to Faried’s defensive limitations. The Nuggets have a glut of forwards (Jusuf Nurkic, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler), and the best resolution for all parties would likely be to trade Faried out of town, if they are able to get back something they like. It will be interesting to see if Denver is willing to start the promising Nurkic over Faried.

New York Knicks Final Roster Spot
The Knicks have 15 players with fully guaranteed contracts, but point guard Chasson Randle is not among those 15. This is significant because the Knicks currently only have two point guards on their roster. Furthermore, those two point guards (Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings) have had injury issues. Do the Knicks feel comfortable going into the season with such limited depth at such an important position? If Rose were to miss time due to either injury or his current trial, Sasha Vujacic would be New York’s back-up PG. For that reason, the Knicks may choose to waive a big, such as Lou Amundson or Marshall Plumlee, in order to clear space for Randle.

Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Analyst and the Fantasy Sports Editor of Basketball Insiders, having covered the NBA for the last nine seasons.

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NBA Daily: Crabbe’s Arrival Brings Wolves Needed Shooting

The Minnesota Timberwolves trading for Allen Crabbe was not simply to move Jeff Teague or to create future trade possibilities, but mostly to give Robert Covington a chance at a few more clean looks. Douglas Farmer writes.

Douglas Farmer

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By trading away Jeff Teague and his $19 million expiring contract, the Minnesota Timberwolves clearly created more time for Shabazz Napier and perhaps opened a pathway to increasing the aggression from Andrew Wiggins, as seen earlier in the year. But to hear head coach Ryan Saunders tell it, acquiring Allen Crabbe from the Atlanta Hawks will help forward Robert Covington more than anyone else.

Teague’s return to Atlanta has little effect on either team’s salary cap structures moving forward. All three pieces — Teague and Crabbe, along with Treveon Graham — are on expiring contracts, and the combination of Teague and Graham out-costs Crabbe by only $2.6 million. The lack of long-term effect has created some speculation Crabbe may be a part of another deal for the Timberwolves before February’s trade deadline, but more likely, he is on hand to create the spacing Minnesota has lacked all season as it implements a modern offensive system.

That may sound counterintuitive since Crabbe is in the midst of a career-worst shooting season, hitting only 32.3 percent of his attempts from deep while taking barely half as many per game as he did the last two seasons. Combining that with Covington’s season-long struggles from beyond the arc — and adding a scuffling shooter to a scuffling shooter — seems a poor way to strengthen the league’s No. 23 offense.

Looking at Crabbe in terms of his career, though, a 38.9 percent three-point threat better fits Saunders’ thoughts.

“A lot of times you see, just for example, a pick-and-roll, the ball will be in Andrew [Wiggins]’ hands, with [Karl-Anthony Towns] the screener,” Saunders said Saturday.  “A lot of times [Covington] is in the high [quadrant]. If you put another high-level shooter in the opposite corner, defenses when they’re coming in to help on the roll, they have to make a choice between Cov and who they want to get the shot up.”

With Towns missing more than a month before this weekend, Saunders’ exact scenario has been rare of late, but the concept holds up.

As Napier spurned Gorgui Dieng’s screen and drove, he looked past Wiggins at the break and instead fired to Covington in the high quadrant just as Saunders suggested. Covington hit the contested shot, part of a recent uptick from the six-year veteran, but it was by no means the open shot a system based on spacing is supposed to provide.

“Certain positions, maybe we have guys at a significantly lower percentage than Cov that [defenses] heavily shade to Cov,” Saunders said. “So I think it’ll really help Cov.”

Saunders tried to be political — not the only time in the availability, as he danced around criticizing some poor calls in Friday’s loss at the Indiana Pacers — but even the coachspeak made the reality clear. The Timberwolves do not have shooting on the roster, and they know it; that has only further hampered the shooting they do have in Covington.

Crabbe’s career mark would rank third on Minnesota’s roster this season, behind only Towns’ 40.6 percent and Dieng’s 39.2. Of Timberwolves attempting at least three 3’s per game, only Towns and Covington are shooting better than even Crabbe’s current 32.3 percent. (That excludes Jake Layman, who has appeared in only 14 games due to a sprained toe.)

Whether Crabbe spots up in the corner or at the break, a la Wiggins above, or Covington does so with Crabbe at the top, the Minnesota newcomer will offer much better shooting than has been available through the first half of the season. Even if it is not in a pick-and-roll situation, an added shooter will give Napier both a better chance to find a marksman and better spacing to get to the rim.

Despite no genuine complementary shooters, Covington has already begun to change his season’s tide. Through the year’s first 32 games, he was shooting only 33.7 percent from beyond the arc on a little under five attempts per game. Those would both be his second-worst career marks for a season.

Something shifted in the new year. In the last nine games, Covington has hit 39.5 percent of his threes on over eight attempts per game. Those would both be career-highs for a season.

All along, a significant portion of Covington’s attempts has been contested. His shooting motion may as well have become a default pump fake, welcoming a defender and then popping.

“Cov has always been a tough shot maker,” Saunder said. “Some guys have that.”

If Crabbe’s arrival has the intended effect, Covington may not need to prove that skill as often moving forward.

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NBA Daily: Gary Clark Hopes To Stick In Orlando

David Yapkowitz chats with Orlando Magic forward Gary Clark about his time in Houston and showing what he’s capable of in the duration of his 10-day contract.

David Yapkowitz

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Life on a non-guaranteed contract in the NBA can be a little bit stressful. Players have to work just a little bit harder and be just a little more efficient than everyone else. They’ve got to do about their daily grind with the thought they can be cut at any moment in the back of their minds.

Sometimes there isn’t any advance warning. They could have put in all the necessary work and gone above and beyond what was asked of them, but still end up being cut. It’s no fault of their own and they may be left wondering where they went wrong.

There are also contract deadlines they need to be cognizant of. Depending on the roster outlook at various points in the season, teams may have to make quick decisions regarding contracts. The first major hurdle players have to overcome is the initial opening night roster deadline. Once they make it past that, they’re still not out of the woods just yet.

The next deadline is in early January when all contracts become guaranteed for the remainder of the season. After impressing the organization enough last season to make the Houston Rockets’ opening night roster out of training camp, Gary Clark didn’t survive this season’s January deadline.

He played a key role at times for the Rockets as a rookie, but found himself on the outside looking in this season. Houston had three players on non-guaranteed contracts: Clark, Ben McLemore and Isaiah Hartenstein. Clark kind of knew his time in Houston was coming to an end when he was the only one of the three who was on the bench most of the time.

“I kind of expected it, just knowing how the basketball world works when it comes down to trigger dates and stuff like that with contracts. Being a guy that wasn’t playing much at that time, I figured it was kind of between me and two other guys, the three of us,” Clark told Basketball Insiders. “That week, I was the only one that wasn’t playing out of us three. It was obvious what the business decision had to be, but you just take it for what it is and keep going forward.”

Clark didn’t remain a free agent for long. Just a couple of days after being cut by the Rockets, the Orlando Magic signed him to a 10-day contract. An injury to Jonathan Isaac precipitated a need for additional help on the wing and in small ball situations as the Magic find themselves entrenched in playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference.

Clark joined the Magic for their current west coast road trip, and he’s immediately been inserted into the rotation. Head coach Steve Clifford has been impressed so far by what he’s seen from Clark, and he’s eager to see how Clark responds while playing on a 10-day contract.

“He can shoot and he’s got good toughness. I think he’s got a good feel for how to play,” Clifford told reporters after a recent game against the Clippers. “I want to see what he can do. We need somebody at that spot that’s skilled like that.”

Clark had his best game of this three-game stretch in his first game with the Magic, a big win over the Los Angeles Lakers. He had 10 points off the bench on 4-for-6 shooting from the field, including 2-for-4 from the three-point line. He didn’t score against the Los Angeles Clippers, but he pulled down four rebounds and gave the team an all-around toughness on the court.

In the Magic’s most recent game against the Golden State Warriors, he shot well again, hitting two of his three attempts — including one from the three-point line. Clark’s early role in Orlando has been similar to what he brought in Houston. That’s a wing who can space the floor and play some power forward in small-ball situations.

“Just bringing some energy and knocking down shots. Being versatile defensively, being able to switch on multiple guys if need be, and use my athleticism,” Clark told Basketball Insiders. “Knocking down shots is one thing, but my activity on the glass on both ends has been solid.”

When Isaac went down, the Magic lost one of the best defensive players in the NBA this season. Isaac was certainly a candidate for First Team All-Defense and had even played his way into the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. Bringing some of that same defensive effort is something that Clark can definitely do.

He was a standout defensive player while in college at Cincinnati. He was a two-time AAC Defensive Player of the Year and displayed a similar skill-set to Isaac in being able to guard multiple positions. In his early stint with the Rockets, he showed his ability to defend at the NBA level as well.

In his first couple of games with the Magic, he saw himself opposite players like LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard. It’s the defensive end of the floor where he feels he can make a solid impact.

“I think this team gives me an opportunity as a young guy to show that I’m capable of doing that,” Clark told Basketball Insiders. “The times that I did get those opportunities, I think I did solid against those guys. It’s going to come, when the opportunity comes I’ll be ready for it.”

While Clark started out as a rotation player as a rookie in Houston, he eventually hit the rookie wall and saw himself sent down to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers in the G League for seasoning. This season, he found himself on the end of the bench but saw some opportunity when Danuel House Jr. went down with an injury.

Although his role was a bit inconsistent, Clark believes he learned some things with the Rockets that will help him in his professional journey. One of the biggest takeaways for him is being able to communicate effectively with the rest of the team, especially when you’re unfamiliar with the team’s plays.

“It’s communication no matter what,” Clark told Basketball Insiders. “I don’t know most of the stuff that guys run or fully know all the schemes, but just being able to talk on the floor on both offense and defense and be there for guys and guys being there for me as well.”

This stint with Orlando is nothing new to Clark in terms of having to prove himself. The Magic have two options once his 10-day runs out. They either release him or sign him to another 10-day. If he makes it past the second 10-day, the Magic have to sign him for the remainder of the season or release him.

No matter what happens, Clark is confident that he’s shown enough both with the Rockets and the Magic to prove that he belongs in the NBA.

“I think any guy that comes from a trade or being waived struggles to make the transition like I’m going through. I can’t be too high or too low in this stint that I’m here, or in the 10-day,” Clark told Basketball Insiders. “I think I did enough in Houston to show my versatility and my ability to knock down shots. I think in the long haul, what I bring to the table is good enough to be here.”

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NBA Daily: Ricky Rubio Raising Expectations in Phoenix

The momentum train in Phoenix may have slowed down, but the Suns are still rolling along nicely. There has been a myriad of changes since last season, but one acquisition, in particular, has been invaluable to the franchise’s major turnaround.

Chad Smith

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When Ricky Rubio signed a three-year contract with the Phoenix Suns for $51 million in July, it was immediately deemed an overpay. The point guard was rumored to be headed to Indiana, but the Suns simply made him a better offer. The offseason addition quickly paid off for the Suns, who were one of the darling surprise teams in the first couple months of the season.

This move was met with criticism because heading into free agency, the biggest need for Phoenix was perimeter shooting. Notoriously known as a guard that can’t shoot the ball, Rubio has shown over the past two seasons that is a false narrative. Rubio is shooting over 41 percent from the floor and 34 percent from distance — those are both near career-highs for the 29-year old floor general.

Some of that can be attributed to the spacing that has opened up with the additions of Dario Saric and Aron Baynes, and, of course, the franchise’s best player, Devin Booker. The other part though is the work that Rubio has put in during the summer and over the course of the season. After six entertaining years in Minnesota and a couple of seasons in Utah, Rubio has truly excelled in Monty Williams’ system.

After a rough month of December, the Suns have been much better as of late. They have won four of their last five games, including last night’s contest in Boston. Rubio, in particular, has been stuffing the stat sheet. In New York City on Thursday night, Rubio served up 25 points, 8 rebounds, 13 assists and 4 steals. Better, he was 10-for-18 from the floor including 3-for-5 from downtown.

Now in his ninth year in the league, Rubio’s 13.6 point scoring average is a career-high. The points are what people will take notice of, but it is his distribution that should be getting the attention. Rubio is averaging a career-high 9.4 assists per game, which ranks second in the league behind only LeBron James. This is what is has been fueling the turnaround in Phoenix.

There is something to be said for shot creation, but also the effectiveness being paired with Booker. The notion early on was that it wouldn’t work because they both need the ball. It is this exact reason though that both are having more success this year. Booker no longer has to handle the ball for the bulk of possessions and create shots for himself and for others. The duo has been lethal in transition. Only LeBron and Giannis Antetokounmpo have scored more fast-break points than Booker this season.

Last season Booker had the third-highest usage rate (32.9) in the league, behind only James Harden and Joel Embiid. Through 41 games this season, Booker now ranks 19th in that category. Booker has been reaping the rewards in a lot of areas. His scoring is still right where it was last year, but his efficiency is up tremendously. In the 38 games that he has played this season, Booker is shooting 51 percent from the floor which is nearly five percent higher than any of his previous four seasons.

The pace (9th) and offensive rating (14th) have vastly improved with Rubio running the point. The emergence of Kelly Oubre Jr has been building for a couple of years now, but Rubio has brought out the best in him. Surrounding him with capable shooters in the form of big men has helped as well. Both Baynes and Saric have thrived in their roles, and rookie Cameron Johnson has been a solid contributor in that regard.

Amid all of this happening, keep in mind that the Suns have been doing all of this essentially without their franchise big man Deandre Ayton. The No. 1 overall pick in 2018 has played just 11 games this season due to his 25-game suspension. He exploded for his first 20-20 game on Thursday in New York, posting 26 points and 21 rebounds. He was perfect from the free-throw line but he has surprisingly only taken 17 attempts this year.

Perhaps the best quality of Rubio’s presence is just how contagious his style of play has become. Last season the Suns ranked 20th in team assists — and this year they are second in the league. Once everyone is able to see the ball move and they can trust that their teammates will keep moving the ball to find the open man, it really puts pressure on the defense. San Antonio has been notorious for this style of play, while Brad Stevens has been doing the same thing in Boston.

When the ball moves where it is supposed to, great things happen.

The road ahead doesn’t look pretty for Phoenix. Now they will face San Antonio twice, Indiana, Memphis, Dallas, Oklahoma City and Milwaukee. They also have matchups with Houston, Denver and the Los Angeles Lakers before the All-Star break.

Realistically, the Suns could be well out of the playoff picture at that point — but considering where they have been for the past few years, the season could still be considered a success. They could have more wins by the break than they have won in total for each of the last four seasons. Williams is building something special in the desert and most of it began with the acquisition of something they have been missing for several years: A quality starting point guard.

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