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NBA Saturday: Predicting NBA All-Star Reserves

Basketball Insiders staff gives their picks for the 2014 All-Star Game reserves… Looking back at Carmelo Anthony’s historic night… Mirza Teletovic’s surprising eruption… Dwyane Wade’s iffy prognosis…

Moke Hamilton

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Basketball Insiders Vote on All-Star Reserves: With the NBA All-Star starters being announced this past Thursday, fans got a resounding reminder: If there is one thing you can rest assured of, it is that mid-January will bring forth controversies and commotion.

Indeed, arguments over which of the NBA’s giants deserve to be All-Stars and those who are undeserving are like a runaway freight train. You know it is coming from a mile away, but you are powerless to stop it.

This year has been no exception. Because fan votes determine the five starters for each team, in many cases, the popularity of a player trumps the extent to which they may or may not “deserve” a spot over one of the game’s still-toiling youngsters.

Based on this season alone, does Kobe Bryant deserve to be an All-Star more than Damian Lillard? Does Dwyane Wade warrant the distinction more than Lance Stephenson? The answer in both cases is an equivocal no, but these are the types of questions that are yielded by the NBA’s practice of giving fans the opportunity to determine the accolade.

But fortunately, these are the types of questions that your Basketball Insiders will attempt to answer for you. There obviously is no “right” or “wrong” answer, but on this Saturday, we share our answers.

Ten members of our staff were polled. The participants were: Steve Kyler, Alex Kennedy, Eric Pincus, Tommy Beer, Moke Hamilton, Bill Ingram, Susan Bible, Jeff Zitzler, Brad Graham and Kyle Cape-Lindelin.

The number after each player’s name indicates how many votes they received.

Eastern Conference Reserve Picks

BC: John Wall (10 votes)
BC: DeMar DeRozan (7 votes)
FC: Joakim Noah (9 votes)
FC: Roy Hibbert (10 votes)
FC: Chris Bosh (7 votes)
WC: Lance Stephenson (6 votes)
WC: Paul Millsap (6 votes)

Other players receiving votes:
Joe Johnson (3), Kyle Lowry (3), Arron Afflalo (3), Al Jefferson (2), Andre Drummond (2), Kemba Walker (1), Jeff Teague (1)

Out on an island:

  • Steve Kyler is the only Basketball Insider who did not vote for Joakim Noah.
  • Moke Hamilton is the only Basketball Insider who voted for Kemba Walker.
  • Brad Graham is the only Basketball Insider who voted for Jeff Teague.
  • Brad Graham and Bill Ingram are the Basketball Insiders who voted for Al Jefferson.
  • Jeff Zitzler and Susan Bible are the Basketball Insiders who voted for Andre Drummond.

Western Conference Reserve Picks

BC: Damian Lillard (10 votes)
BC: James Harden (9 votes)
FC: LaMarcus Aldridge (10 votes)
FC: Dwight Howard (10 votes)
FC: Dirk Nowitzki (4 votes)
WC: Chris Paul (9 votes)
WC: Tony Parker (7 votes)

Other players receiving votes:
Anthony Davis (4 votes), DeMarcus Cousins (3 votes), Tim Duncan (2 votes), Goran Dragic (1 vote), Serge Ibaka (1 vote)

Out on an island:

  • Steve Kyler is the only Basketball Insider who did not vote for James Harden.
  • Brad Graham is the only Basketball Insider who did not vote for Chris Paul.
  • Brad Graham is the only Basketball Insider who voted for Goran Dragic.
  • Susan Bible is the only Basketball Insider who voted for Serge Ibaka.
  • Steve Kyler and Alex Kennedy are the Basketball Insiders who voted for Tim Duncan.

Obviously, there is no science to this, but it is interesting to note that the staff members that were polled seems to come to a consensus on Wall, Hibbert, Noah, Lillard, Aldridge, Howard, Harden and Paul as All-Stars. After that, it is pretty obvious that subjective assessments took over.

Perhaps it is my New York City bias, but I believe Walker deserves to be an All-Star. But, as usual, I suppose there is always next year.

Carmelo Anthony’s Historic Night: After losing the first three games of their make-or-break eight-game home stand, Carmelo Anthony took matters into his own hands on Friday night, as the Knicks bested the Charlotte Bobcats, 125-96.

Anthony had a performance for the ages, scoring a record-breaking 62 points. With his 62 points, Anthony broke Bernard King’s Knick franchise single-game scoring record of 60 points. King scored 60 on Christmas Day of 1984 in a 120-114 loss to the New Jersey Nets. Anthony also broke Kobe Bryant’s record-setting 61-point shooting spree, set back on February 2, 2009 in a 126-117 Lakers victory.

Although Anthony took the Garden’s record back from Bryant, the Lakers shooting guard has five career games in which he has scored at least 60 points, including his career-high 81-point performance in a 122-104 win over the Toronto Raptors back on January 22, 2006.

Bryant’s five career 60-plus point performances gives him the second most 60-point performances in NBA history. The all-time leader is Wilt Chamberlain, who scored 60 or more points 32 times over the course of his career.

Despite the win, the Knicks enter play on January 25 at 16-27 and tied for 10th place in the Eastern Conference.

Brooklyn Nets Continue to Surge: While Anthony was breaking records at Madison Square Garden on Friday night, five miles away at Barclays Center, the Brooklyn Nets were busy continuing to be the hottest team in the NBA since 2014 began. En route to a 107-106 victory over the visiting Dallas Mavericks, the Nets got an improbable 34 points off the bench from second-year forward Mirza Teletovic. Deron Williams, playing just his third game since returning to the lineup with ankle woes contributed 18 points and 11 assists.

The Nets are now 9-1 in the month of January and have given head coach Jason Kidd a good chance of winning the NBA’s Eastern Conference Coach of the Month award for January. But more importantly, if the Nets keep playing like this, they may find themselves atop the Atlantic Division. Now at 19-22, the Nets trail the Toronto Raptors by just 2.5 games in the division.

Over the course of their hot streak, the biggest difference for the Nets has been small ball. With Brook Lopez out for the remainder of the season, Kevin Garnett has been moved to center with Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson playing beside him in the front court. With the rangy Shaun Livingston re-emerging as a force, the Nets have fielded a starting unit that has somewhat interchangeable parts on the defensive end and five players who are all capable of scoring.

With their collective health improving, and meaningful contributions from Andray Blatche, Andrei Kirilenko and Alan Anderson, the Nets seem to have turned a corner and are charging toward the top of their division.

Dwyane Wade’s Iffy Prognosis: After Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals, after the Miami HEAT emerged as champions over the San Antonio Spurs, Dwyane Wade made no secret of the fact that his knees were ailing. With questions and concerns about his long-term health prognosis, the HEAT have had Wade on a bit of a pitch count, reminiscent of what Gregg Popovich has done in San Antonio with some of his older veterans.

However, as it relates to Wade, the HEAT began 2014 with a tough stretch in which they played five games in eight nights. Wade played in each of them. Since then, Wade has missed six of the HEAT’s last seven games and has already matched the 13 games he sat out last season.

On Sunday, with the San Antonio Spurs making their first trip to Miami since last season’s NBA Finals, Wade’s status is still up in the air. The questions regarding his long-term health will persist.

One of the questions that can cease, though, is whether or not Wade will participate in NBA All-Star Weekend next month. As announced this past week, Wade has been voted in as a starter for the ninth consecutive time.

Moke Hamilton’s Weekly NBA Power Rankings drop each and every Monday night, so be sure to check back to see which teams are dominating the Association.  

Moke Hamilton is a Deputy Editor and Columnist for Basketball Insiders.

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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension

Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.

In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.

At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.

The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.

There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots. 

A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks. 

Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.

More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter. 

But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic? 

It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.

Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.

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NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track

D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.

Drew Maresca

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D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.

Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.

Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.

The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.

COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.

The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.

Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).

Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?

Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.

Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.

Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.

On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.

Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).

But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.

At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.

And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.

To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.

So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.

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NBA AM: Is This It for Indiana?

Following their major drop-off, Matt John explains why the Pacers trying to get back to where they were may not be the best decision.

Matt John

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Remember when, following the maligned trade of Paul George, the sky was the limit for the Indiana Pacers? The 2017-18 Pacers were one of the best stories in the NBA that season because they made their opponents work for their victories, and they put on a spectacle every night.

It’s hard to believe that all transpired three whole years ago. When Cleveland eliminated Indiana in a very tight first-round series, I asked if having the exciting season that they did – when many thought it would turn out the opposite – was going to benefit them in the long run. Three years later, this happens.

We were getting plenty of smoke about the Pacers’ drama behind-the-scenes beforehand, and now, we have seen the fire firsthand. More and more reports indicate that the crap has hit the fan. Indiana has seemingly already had enough of Nate Bjorkgren in only his first year as his coach. When you see the results they’ve had this season compared to the last three, it’s not hard to see why.

The Pacers have routinely found themselves in the 4-5 playoff matchup for the last three years. Sadly, despite their fight – and, to be fair, they had pretty awful injury luck the past two postseasons – they haven’t been able to get over the hump in the first round. They may not have been in the elite tier, but they weren’t slouches either. So, seeing them not only fail to take the next step but look more and more likely for the play-in is as discouraging as it gets. Especially after they started the season 6-2.

If these reports about the tensions between the players and Bjorkgren are real, then this has already become a lost season for the Pacers. It’s too late in the season to make any major personnel changes. At this point, their best route is just to cut their losses and wait until this summer to think over what the next move is.

In that case, let’s take a deep breath. This has been a weird season for everyone. Every aspect minus the playoffs has been shorter than usual since last October. Everything was shortened from the offseason to the regular season. Oh, and COVID-19 has played a role as the season has turned out, although COVID-19 has probably been the least of Indy’s problems. Let’s think about what next season would look like for Indiana.

TJ Warren comes back with a clean bill of health. Caris Levert gets more acquainted with the team and how they run. Who knows? Maybe they finally resolve the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis situation once and for all. A new coach can come aboard to steady the ship, and it already looks like they have an idea for who that’s going to be

Should they run it back, there’s a solid chance they can get back to where they were before. But that’s sort of the problem to begin with. Even if this recent Pacers’ season turns out to be just a negative outlier, their ceiling isn’t all too high anyway. A team that consists of Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris Levert as their core four is a solid playoff team. Having Turner, Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, and the Holiday brothers rounds out a solid playoff team. Anyone who takes a good look at this roster knows that this roster is a good one. It’s not great though.

Just to be clear, Indiana has plenty of ingredients for a championship team. They just don’t have the main one: The franchise player. Once upon a time, it looked like that may have been Oladipo, but a cruel twist of fate took that all away. This isn’t a shot at any of the quality players they have on their roster, but think of it this way.

For the next couple of years, they’re going to go up against Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. All of whom are on the same team. For potentially even longer, they’ll be going up against the likes of Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. With the roster they have, they could make a series interesting against any one of those teams. However, it’s a rule of thumb in the NBA that the team with the best player usually wins the series. Not to mention, they’d have to beat most of the teams those players play for to go on a substantial playoff run. That’s a pretty tall order.

There’s no joy in talking about the Pacers like this because they have built this overachieving underdog from nothing more than shrewd executive work. They turned a disgruntled and expiring Paul George into Oladipo and Sabonis. Both of whom have since become two-time all-stars (and counting). They then managed to turn an expiring and hobbled Oladipo – who had no plans to return to Indiana – into the electric Levert. They also pretty much stole Brogdon and Warren away while paying very little for either of them.

That is fantastic work. The only hangup is that, as of now, it just doesn’t seem like it will be enough. But, doubt and skepticism are things Indiana’s had thrown their way consistently since 2017. Many thought their approach to trading Paul George would blow up in their face, and since then, they’ve done everything in their power to make everyone eat their words.

Kevin Pritchard’s got his work cut out for him this summer. This season will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than performance ruined by both the wrong coaching hire and an unusual season that produced negatively skewed results. But at this point, Pritchard’s upcoming course of action this summer shouldn’t be about getting his team back to where they were, but deciding whether he can get them a step or two further than that by adding more to what they have or starting over completely.

Indiana’s had a rough go of it in this COVID-shortened season, but their disappointing play may have little to no bearing on where they go from here.

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