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NBA AM: Picking First is Never Easy

Right now, Brandon Ingram vs. Ben Simmons feels like a reasonable debate. It might look laughable in five years.

Joel Brigham

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With the NBA Draft Combine under two weeks away, really serious and in-depth coverage of this year’s event is about to ramp up considerably, especially now that the NFL Draft is done and out of the way.

The 2016 NBA Draft looks like it’s shaping up to be one of those where the team picking first overall (whoever that may be) will have a difficult decision to make between the season-long favorite in Ben Simmons or the somewhat surprising upstart Brandon Ingram.

The debate about which player should ultimately be the top overall selection has already been written about repeatedly, so there’s no point in rehashing that here. What does matter is that there’s a real debate at all. This isn’t one of those drafts where there’s a clear-cut generational talent ripe for the plucking. For example, 1997 was The Tim Duncan Draft, and 2003 was The LeBron James Draft. Those top overall selections were all sewed up months before David Stern called either guy’s name.

What really makes for an interesting draft season is when there’s a real debate, and there have been plenty of times over the course of the last 25 years in which it wasn’t always clear who would be the top overall selection, oftentimes until the name was actually called on draft night.

Here’s a look at some of the biggest debates for that No. 1 pick from the last 25 years, all of which should do nothing to answer the question of whether Simmons or Ingram should be this year’s top pick. As we’ll see, making the right selection is seldom that easy.

2013 – Anthony Bennett/Nerlens Noel/Alex Len/Victor Oladipo – In one of the muddiest conversations in recent history regarding a top overall selection, Cleveland ended up taking the worst possible player, but as with all of these picks hindsight is 20/20. Still, the Cavaliers came into the draft needing a big guy to go with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters and actually gave serious consideration to Len with that top pick before ultimately deciding to take a huge risk on Bennett at No. 1. Oladipo reportedly was the top prospect on a lot of teams’ big board, but he didn’t fill a need for the Cavs with so many equally talented big men available at that spot. Noel was thought to be the sure-thing top pick for most of that year until things got more confuseint closer to the draft; without his ACL injury, he very well may have been the guy. Instead, Cleveland made arguably the worst No. 1 overall selection in league history. At least they didn’t pass up on any All-NBA First-Team players to make such an egregious error.

2008 – Derrick Rose/Michael Beasley – When Chicago ended up with the No. 1 overall selection, it became clear pretty quickly that they would be taking the hometown star Rose. But before the lottery (and even for a couple of weeks after), the “Rose or Beasley?” articles were ubiquitous on the internet. Chicago needed help at both spots, needing a competent point guard and more consistent frontcourt scoring, so either player would have made sense. Both guys also left college playing at an elite level, so there was a real debate there for a while. Ultimately, Chicago picked the young man whom they felt like had the stronger character and ties to the city, and it proved the wiser choice. Rose would be an MVP within three years while Beasley would struggle just to find minutes in Miami and subsequently bounce around the NBA.

2007 – Greg Oden/Kevin Durant – While Oden proved to be the most painful incorrect No. 1 draft choice in recent NBA history, Portland really did (understandably) struggle in making this selection. On the one hand, they had a gaping hole at small forward and Durant came into the NBA as one of the most freakishly gifted offensive players the college game had ever seen. But then there was Oden, a defensive Monet they saw as a perfect complement to the emerging LaMarcus Aldridge. Many called Oden the best big man prospect since Tim Duncan and while they weren’t wrong, his health derailed what could have been a massively impressive career as a defender. We know what the right answer would have been here, but Portland erred on the side of size. One would assume they’d learn something from erring on the side of size in drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan in 1984, but not all of history’s wrongs get righted.

2004 – Dwight Howard/Emeka Okafor – This was a classic case of drafting for floor versus drafting for ceiling, and it very likely has served as a blueprint for other executives in the years since this was the epitome of taking a chance on a raw blue-chipper over an established college star. More often than not, it has been those athletic, burgeoning prospects who have formed into the league’s biggest stars – Howard included – but at the time that school of belief hadn’t shifted yet. Okafor had just wrapped up a stellar Final Four tournament, winning Most Outstanding Player to go with all of his other NCAA accolades including First-Team All-American and the Co-National Player of the Year. Howard, meanwhile, had all the athleticism in the world and a still-growing frame (he measured at 6’9 at the combine that year). Unproven? Sure, but Orlando went with the possibility that he’d blossom into a superstar (he would), while Okafor never quite figured out how to dominate in the pros like he did at UConn.

2002 – Yao Ming/Jay Williams – On the one hand, Yao always had an edge as the No. 1 pick in this draft, because 7’5 centers with a skill set like his just don’t come around very often. But there was Williams, easily the best American player in the draft that year, who many thought was just as good and was at least a more known commodity. That presented some considerable debate about the top pick in the weeks leading up to the draft. Chicago, who ended up taking Williams second overall, legitimately planned for the possibility of taking either player, believing that Yao really could fall to them. Houston, though, read the tea leaves not only in terms of Yao’s talent but his marketing potential, and while he didn’t have a particularly long or overly-prosperous career, he still was a smash hit for the Rockets in terms of worldwide popularity. Williams, meanwhile, found himself the victim of an unfortunate motorcycle accident following his rookie year, which forced him out of the NBA forever. However short Yao’s career was, it wasn’t as short as Williams’ time in the league.

2001 – Kwame Brown/Tyson Chandler – According to SI’s Ian Thomsen, Michael Jordan, then in charge of the Wizards’ front office, had Brown and Chandler in for a workout together and let the two face off against one another in a game of one-on-one. Jordan, ever the competitor, told them that whoever won the game would be first in line to be made the top pick in the draft that year. Brown, who had 15 pounds on a rail-thin, younger version of Chandler, apparently won the match handily. Then, he walked over to MJ and said, “If you draft me first, I’ll never disappoint you.” Well, that convinced Jordan, who grew disappointed almost immediately. Chandler (or Pau Gasol or Jason Richardson or Shane Battier or even Eddy Curry) would have been the better choice at No. 1, but Brown’s failure turned teams off to gambling on high school players for some time to follow. In fact, his failure almost certainly played a role in pushing through the one-and-done rule that forces kids to attend at least a year of college before declaring for the NBA Draft.

1998 – Michael Olowokandi/Mike Bibby – For weeks leading up to the 1998 NBA Draft, the general consensus was that standout Arizona guard Mike Bibby would be made the first overall pick by the L.A. Clippers because the team did need a point guard at the time. But they also needed a franchise big man, preferably a seven-footer, which in the ‘90s was a much more in-demand wish-list item than it is today. “True seven-footers” were a lot harder to track down than talented point guards, so L.A. found itself leaning more toward Olowokandi, which may very well have been the crown jewel of the Clippers’ pre-2000s mediocrity. Few No. 1 picks in league history have been quite so disappointing.

Of course, all of this is easy to see in retrospect. We know that Oden and Brown and Olowokandi were the wrong choices, and that Rose and Yao and Howard were the right ones. The point, though, is that at the time these were debates every bit as real as the one we’re currently having about Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. Who will end up on the right and wrong side of this conversation in five or 10 years? That, as always, is a very good question.

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NBA DAILY: Lou Williams Stepping Up For Injured Clippers

The Clippers have been hit by injuries again, but Lou Williams is doing everything he can to keep the team afloat.

Jesse Blancarte

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The Los Angeles Clippers have been decimated by injuries this season. Blake Griffin is sidelined until approximately February of next year. Danilo Gallinari has been sidelined for an extended period of time with a glute injury and will continue to be out of action for some time after suffering a second glute injury recently. Patrick Beverley underwent season ending microfracture surgery in November. Milos Teodosic suffered a foot injury in just the second game of the season and only recently returned to the lineup. Austin Rivers just suffered a concussion and could miss some time as well.

With so many injuries, the Clippers currently find themselves in the 10th seed in the Western Conference with an 11-15 record. This isn’t what the Clippers had in mind when they brought back a solid haul of players last offseason in exchange for Chris Paul.

Competing with the top teams in the Western Conference was always going to be difficult for this Clippers team. Los Angeles has plenty of talent on the roster and added a few younger prospects to develop. However, key players like Griffin and Gallinari are injury prone and both needed to stay on the court for the Clippers to have any hope of staying in range of the West’s top teams. The Clippers lost 9 games straight in the middle of November and it looked as though they were on course to be competing for a top lottery pick in next season’s draft.

However, despite all of the injuries and setbacks, Lou Williams, along with iron man DeAndre Jordan, has picked up the slack and has done more than his fair share to keep the Clippers’ playoff hopes alive. This season, Williams is averaging 20 points, 4.8 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 40 percent from three-point range (on 6.2 attempts per game). Williams is sporting a healthy 21.2 Player Efficiency Rating, which is a near career best rating (Williams posted a 21.4 PER last season). His True Shooting percentage (59.3) is tied with his career high rating, which Williams posted last season as well. Williams’s free throw rate has taken a dip this season, but his ability to draw timely (and often questionable) fouls has been a valuable asset to his team once again. Simply put, Williams has been particularly efficient on offense this season for the Clippers – a team that has lost its most reliable scorers and playmakers.

“We’ve had some guys go down with injuries and somebody has to step in and fill that scoring void,” Williams said after helping the Clippers defeat the Magic. “I’ve been able to do it.”

Williams has also hit plenty of big shots for the Clippers this season. Most recently, Williams knocked down a go-ahead three-pointer in the final seconds against the Washington Wizards that sealed the win for the Clippers. The Clippers are used to having a natural born scorer coming off the bench to act as a sparkplug as they had Jamal Crawford on the roster for the last five seasons. Similar to Crawford, Williams struggles to hold his own on the defensive side of the ball. But Williams has been more effective defensively so far this season for the Clippers than Crawford was for the majority of his time in Los Angeles. Williams isn’t going to lock down the Russell Westbrooks of the world, but he isn’t giving back the majority of the points he scores either.

In addition to his scoring, Williams is a solid playmaker and has managed to facilitate the Clippers’ offense at various points of the season. Williams isn’t exactly Chris Paul in terms of setting up his teammates for easy baskets, but he has been notably effective in this role, which is very important considering how many playmakers have falled to injury this season. Williams is now, arguably, the team’s best offensive weapon and one of its most effective floor generals. Now that we are nearly two months into the NBA season, it seems as though Williams and his teammates are starting to find a little more chemistry with one another.

“I think these guys are just starting to be more comfortable. They understand we’re going to have some injuries and guys are going to be down,” Williams said recently. “So they’re just playing with a lot of confidence. I think at first you’re kind of getting your feet wet and guys don’t want to make mistakes. Now guys are just going out there and playing as hard as they can.”

Williams will need to continue building chemistry with his teammates if they are to keep pace until players like Gallinari and Griffin make it back onto the court.

The Clippers have won six of their last 10 games and are starting to steady what had becoming a sinking ship. Smart gamblers and predictive algorithms would caution against betting on the Clippers making the playoffs this season, but they are in much better shape now than they were in the middle of November — an accomplishment that Williams deserves plenty of credit for.

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Defensive Player Of The Year Watch – 12/15/17

Spencer Davies checks in on the race for DPOY with his top six candidates.

Spencer Davies

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It’s mid-December and candidates for individual awards are starting to really garner attention. On Basketball Insiders, we’ve been taking a close look at players who should be in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year in a unique fashion.

As the numbers begin to even out and the noise lessens with larger sample sizes, the picture becomes clearer. There is no clear-cut favorite, and the return of Kawhi Leonard will likely complicate things more in the future, but right now there are six players who have stood out from the rest.

 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

It’s a shame that a right shoulder injury is going to keep Mbah a Moute out of action for the next few weeks. He’s done everything that the Houston Rockets have asked of him and more. It’s been his versatility defensively that’s made him a headache for any opponent he’s guarded. He’s able to seamlessly switch onto assignments coming off screens and create turnovers from forcing extra pressure.

The Rockets have the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA (103.7) as it is, but when the veteran forward is on the floor, they allow just 99.8 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning The Glass.

 Andre Roberson

There’s not a lot of good going on with the Oklahoma City Thunder right now, though you can pick out a bright spot when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. As a team, they are first in the league in turnover percentage and second in defensive rating. This is due in part to Roberson’s ability to force his matchups to make errant decisions with the ball, which usually results in a steal for one of his teammates.

Currently, the 26-year-old is the top guard in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus ranking system and 10th in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box Plus-Minus. According to CTG, Oklahoma City is worse when Roberson isn’t playing (97.9 on/10.5 off) and his impact using those figures ranks in the 94th percentile.

 Kevin Durant

Here’s a case where the numbers don’t exactly tell the real story. The Golden State Warriors are technically a better team defensively by 6.4 points per 100 possessions with Durant off the court. But when you go deeper into things, things get clarified. Let’s start simple: He’s tied for most total blocks in the league (51) and the second-most blocks per game (2.1). The Warriors have the third-best defensive rating in the NBA at 102.9.

How about we go further into individual defense? Durant is contesting nearly 13 field goals per game and only 38.4 percent of those attempts have been successful, a mark that is the second-lowest for opponent percentage among those defending at least 10 tries per game. Diving deeper, the reigning Finals MVP is stifling in the fourth quarter, yielding a league-low 30 percent conversion rate (min. three attempts) to his competition.

 Joel Embiid

Trusting the Process has gone mainstream, and for good reason. Everybody is focused on the beautiful footwork, the sensational euro steps and the dream shakes, but Embiid’s got a suit just as strong on the other side of the ball. The Philadelphia 76ers are barely on the outside looking in as a top-10 defense, and they’ve been a team improving as they’ve grown together over the course of the season. The entire trio of Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, and Embiid has been the stronghold of the Sixers’ defense, but it’s been the sophomore center who has assumed the most responsibility to anchor down the paint and take on individual challenges against quality big men.

Embiid ranks third in DRPM among those playing at least 30 minutes per game and has the highest defended field goal percentage differential (-8.7) in the NBA for players seeing at least eight attempts per game. Philadelphia is also allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions with him sitting, which is a 12-point difference that puts his impact in the 97th percentile.

 Eric Bledsoe

Since Bledsoe’s arrival, the Milwaukee Bucks have been on the upswing regarding their defensive principles. The combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo—who could be a candidate for DPOY in his own right—and the strong guard has created havoc for opposing teams. There’s a ton of pressure being applied and it’s worked well. Due to a less-than-ideal stretch a month ago, work still has to be done in order to rid the Bucks out of that bottom-10 stigma in that specific area, but they’re on their way.

Bledsoe’s reputation as an in your face, stick-like-glue defender precedes itself. He’s doing an excellent job with one-on-one matchups. Already hesitant to attack him as it is, opponents don’t try to take him much, but when they do, it doesn’t usually turn out in their favor. In isolation situations, Bledsoe is allowing just 0.44 points per possession and is tied for the second-highest turnover frequency on those plays, ranking in the 97th percentile according to NBA.com. Using CTG, the Bucks’ defensive rating dips by 13 points when he’s off the floor. That discrepancy is also highly regarded and ranks in the 98th percentile.

 Anthony Davis

Where would the New Orleans Pelicans be without Davis? There’s a special talent about The Brow that can’t really be put into words. He takes on the brunt of the defensive load and has for years now. DeMarcus Cousins started off as the physical presence of the duo on that end of the court, but it’s been Davis who has remained the most consistent force.

Answering the question posed in the first paragraph, the Pelicans are giving up 117.5 points per 100 possessions when Davis is not present. That is a ridiculous figure, and given that New Orleans isn’t the best team defensively in the first place, it shows his true importance to that group. Including Cousins, he is one of 13 players defending at least 14 field goals per game. The difference between them, however, is that he is allowing just 40.5 percent of those attempts to be successful. It’s the lowest conversion rate among that list of names. Add in the fact that he’s blocking almost two shots per game and is averaging a steal per game—that’s a convincing case for DPOY.

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Jahlil Okafor Being Slowly Incorporated By Nets

The Nets hope Jahlil Okafor can be a franchise player for them, but, of course, only when he’s ready.

Moke Hamilton

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It’s incredible that a player selected as highly in a draft and as recently as he could be considered damaged goods by his drafting team, but that’s what the Philadelphia 76ers thought of Jahlil Okafor, and the Brooklyn Nets were the beneficiaries.

Remarkably, behind the genius of general manager Sean Marks, the Nets, with Okafor, suddenly have a roster with two young building blocks in he and D’Angelo Russell. With Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll, Marks has done an incredible job of improving the talent base of the Nets despite having little assets to offer in terms of trade value.

Now, with Okafor in tow, the question everyone in Brooklyn wants to know the answer to is “When?”

After acquiring Okafor and shooting guard Nik Stauskas from the Sixers on December 7, neither of the two played in any of the club’s first three games following the trade.

The idea, said head coach Kenny Atkinson, is to bring both Okafor and Stauskas along slowly.

“I just think it’s going to take time,” Atkinson, according to New York Newsday, said Wednesday after practice.

“I can’t give you a timetable. I think we come to these decisions as a group. We’ll know when he’s ready and we’ll give you the word.”

Selected with the third overall pick in the 2015 draft, Okafor averaged 17 points and 7.5 rebounds per game as a rookie. Since then, a combination of the rise of Joel Embiid, his lack of defensive presence and perceived inability to play in an NBA where traditional back-to-basket centers are considered obsolete dropped his stock dramatically, to the point where he played a total of 25 minutes this season for the Sixers.

Still, it hasn’t impacted the value that Atkinson or Marks sees in him.

“I think he’s been very serious, very focused, and that’s a great start because that’s where it starts,” Atkinson said on Wednesday.

“What’s your demeanor like? What’s your work? I’m looking to get to know him more.”

It’s not every day that a coach will acquire a new player who has impact potential and seat him on the bench, but that’s exactly what Atkinson has done. What it means, though, is probably more important.

When one considers what has transpired with the Nets since their move to Brooklyn, the franchise has been renowned for attempting to take shortcuts to the top. From Gerald Wallace to Joe Johnson to even Deron Williams, the moves made by the franchise were always designed with the thought of tomorrow, not the pragmatic patience and long-sighted view that, at least to this point, Atkinson and Marks seem to have.

In most situations, a franchise which knows that its first round pick is going elsewhere would feel at least some sort of pressure to win as much as possible in the short term, especially after having the first overall pick in the prior year’s draft snatched from their grasp. As a reminder, as a part of the 2013 trade that sent Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to Brooklyn, the Nets sent the Celtics their first round picks in the 2014, 2016 and 2018 drafts, as well as the right to swap picks with them in 2017.

As fate would have it, the Nets’ pick in 2017 ended up being first overall, but, obviously, the Celtics exercised their right to swap.

Since then, the Celtics dealt the Nets’ 2018 pick to the Cavaliers in exchange for Kyrie Irving, but to the front office’s credit, the knowledge of the sins of yesterday have no impact on the brick-by-brick approach that Marks has taken in attempting to rebuild the franchise.

Okafor, unlike his prior life in Philadelphia, isn’t coming to Brooklyn with the pressure of being any sort of franchise savior on his shoulders—he simply needs to fit in, on his own time.

“They know my weaknesses and strengths and I’m working with them every day to get better,” Okafor said on Wednesday.

“They already told me what they want me to work on and like I said, I’m all in.”

Obviously, Atkinson has a plan for Okafor, and with the Nets playing three games in four nights, having another big body to provide some minutes would do the team wonders. But, for a change, there’s no haste in Brooklyn.

“Right now, I’m just getting used to the pace,” Okafor said. “That’s the main thing. Especially with me really not having played at all this year,” he said, alluding to the fact that, despite weighing in about 20 pounds lighter than he was last season, his lack of action has cause him to lose a bit of his wind.

But while he may have lost his place in the rotation and his game readiness, in Brooklyn, Okafor has found something much more valuable—a sense of belonging.

“They’re just really invested in me and that just makes me feel wanted, it makes me feel a part of this team,” he said.

With the final debit of the ill-fated 2013 trade being paid this coming summer, the Nets will turn the page on a new era that they hope Okafor and D’Angelo Russell—two players selected one pick apart—can help to lead.

Behind the scenes, Marks will continue to work diligently to acquire undervalued pieces which can, for him, hopefully become a part of a sum that’s bigger than their individual pieces.

But, of course, like Okafor’s debut with Brooklyn, it’ll take some time.

That’s okay, though. Finally, at Barclays Center, for a change, there’s pragmatic patience. For sure, this time, there’s simply no need to rush.

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