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Prodigies: Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid

Jake Rauchbach evaluates Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid in Part Two of the Prodigies Series.

Jake Rauchbach

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As the Prodigy series continues, we break down two of the best young big men in the NBA: Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid. Both players are showing signs that they could become Hall of Famers despite going through entirely different journeys to their initial NBA success.

Towns experienced an almost seamless transition from the University of Kentucky after his freshmen year to being drafted as the No. 1 overall pick by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2015 NBA Draft. During a stellar rookie season in which Towns captured Rookie of the Year honors, Kevin Durant told the Associated Press, “He’s going to be a Hall of Famer in this league.” In his second season in the league, Towns came back even stronger by increasing his scoring, rebounding and minutes per game, all while shooting a better percentage from the field.

Unlike Towns, Embiid’s journey to his rookie season success has been burdened with injury complications. Drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers in 2014, Embiid has broken the navicular bone in his right foot twice, which caused him to miss what would have been his first two seasons in the league. After battling back through these complications, he is now having a huge impact on the league; so much so, that some of his contemporaries think he has the chance to be the best big man in the NBA. After the Sacramento Kings played the Sixers on December 27th, DeMarcus Cousins told SB Nation’s Kristian Winfield, “I don’t give a lot of people props, but I like that kid a lot. I think he’s got a great chance at being the best big in the league… after I retire.”

With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of both Towns and Embiid:

Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

21.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 47% from the field, 31% 3 from three (37 Games)

STRENGTHS

Transition Play: Towns’ exceptional ball handling skills allow the T-Wolves big to be super dynamic in the open-court. His euro-steps, spins, and change of direction moves are on full display when Towns is in transition where he averages 1.27 point per possession, scoring 75 points on 59 possessions, according to Synergy.

Isolation: Currently, Towns ranks in the 49th percentile with .85 points per possession in isolation plays, according to Synergy. However, through the first 30 games, Towns was killing it in isolation, scoring 47 points on 48 possessions, ranking him in the 73rd percentile in the league, according to Synergy. He has struggled in the last few games, but his struggles as of late don’t change the fact that Towns’ dynamic skill-set makes him dangerous going one-on-one.

In the T-Wolves’ offense, Towns often finds himself isolated in the high post and wing areas where he loves to face up defenders. Towns was averaging 1.43 point per possession (through 30 games) when operating out of isolation from the left side of the floor, which ranked him the fourth most efficient player in the league, according to Synergy. Towns is adept at squaring up using either pivot foot and also does a great job using ball fakes to keep his defender off balance. Many times after squaring up, Towns will stare down defenders into his jumper, gauging whether or not a shot contest is forthcoming. This ability to create his own shot allows him to also set up his drives both right and left. Minnesota’s guards also like to set Towns up in wing pick-and-rolls by refusing ball screens that the big man sets in order to kick back for isolation opportunities. Towns has freakishly good ball handling ability for a big and will create space by driving and stepping off defenders in a variety of ways. Moving forward, expect Towns’ efficiency to rebound in this area throughout the season.

Pick and Roll Action As Screener: Towns’ ability to stretch the defense with his shooting, nimbleness and ability to finish around the rim allows him to be even more effective when rolling and slipping to the basket out of pick-and-rolls. Towns ranks in the 69th percentile, averaging .99 points per possession when popping out for jump shot opportunities. Towns combines soft touch with ferocious finishes around the rim, which has him ranked in the 78th percentile in the NBA (1.38 points per possessions, according to Synergy). On slips, he ranks in the 62nd percentile, according to Synergy.

WEAKNESSES

Spot Up Shooting/Drives: Despite his great touch and solid stroke, Towns’ shot preparation, many times, leaves a lot to be desired. He has a tendency to stand straight up and does not always step into his shot. This appears to hinder his rhythm and timing for catch-and-shoot opportunities and drives to the basket off of spot up catches. On catch-and shoot-opportunities, Towns is averaging just .831 points per possession, which ranks him in the 16th percentile in the league, according to Synergy. When spotting up and driving it to the basket, he is posting .875 points per possession, ranking him in the 39th percentile, according to Synergy.

Post Play: Post play is one area where, if Towns improved, he could take his game to a dramatically higher level. Towns has scored 145 points on 179 possessions. His .87 points per possession ranks him in the 33rd percentile in the league. 56.5 percent of his low post production is generated from the left post, where he shoots 44 percent. Towns loves turning over his left shoulder to make plays from either side of the floor.

On the left block area is where Towns really struggles. On 84 possessions this season, Towns has scored just 62 points. This ranks him in the 16th percentile in the league. The only move Towns consistently employs effectively from the left post is his right hand hook, where he is averaging 1.15 points per possession (79th percentile). That being said, the big man rarely attempts drop-steps, up-and-unders, drives, or turnaround jumpers from this side of the floor.

On the right block, Towns is much better and ranks in the 53rd percentile in the league in regards to his scoring efficiency. He wants to turn over his left shoulder and likes to get to his drop step when doing so, scoring 28 points on 23 possessions, good enough for the 86th percentile in the league, according to Synergy. Despite his effectiveness off the drop-step, and the left block, Towns rarely attempts jump shots, face-ups, hooks, or drives to the basket. Diversifying his repertoire of moves down low could help generate substantial improvement moving forward.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

19.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 46% FG, 37% 3PT (25 Games)

STRENGTHS

Isolation: Embiid is a superb isolation player. This season he has scored 45 points on 43 possessions, ranking him in the 83rd percentile in the league, according to Synergy. He likes to work from both the right side and from the top of the key. On the right side, he is boasting a 1.2 points per possession average, putting him in the 86th percentile in the league and from the top of the key he has scored 17 points on 14 possessions (1.4 points per possession), placing him in the 99th percentile, according to Synergy. Around the perimeter, Embiid will face up and use a jab step to set up his drives to the basket. He possesses great poise off the dribble for a big and uses his extremely long, fluid steps and superior size to get by opposing bigs.  He also does a great job rocking his defender to sleep off the dribble in order to create space for his jumper. He likes to do this from the top of the key.

Pick & Roll Play: Pick-and-roll man opportunities make up 16 percent of Embiid’s overall offensive play types. As the screener out of pick-and-rolls, Embiid has recorded 94 points on 83 possessions, placing him in the 72nd percentile in the league, according to Synergy. He is especially adept at screening and popping out, converting 65 points on 59 possessions. However, he has been deadly when he catches and shoots without a dribble, hitting 42 points on 29 possessions, good for 1.45 points per possession. This puts him in the 98th percentile of the league on these play types.

Jump Shot Opportunities: Embiid is a very good jump shooter. In the half court this season, Embiid has scored 106 points on 96 possessions (87th percentile), according to Synergy. Most of these jumpers are generated in the flow of the Sixers’ offense, others in pick-and-roll play and a smaller portion coming from isolation play. In any case, this is one area where Embiid really excels.

WEAKNESSES

Injury History: Embiid missed a large portion of his freshmen season at Kansas because of back issues. A screw was inserted into his right foot after twice breaking the navicular bone. From complications regarding his foot, Embiid ended up missing his first two seasons in the NBA. However, due in part to an extensive rehabilitation process employed by the Sixers’ medical and sports science teams, and a strict minute per game restriction this season, Embiid has looked great. Assuming he stays healthy, the sky is the limit for Embiid.

Post Ups: Post ups make up 34 percent of Embiid’s overall offensive play types, according to Synergy. However, for such a talented player, Embiid, like Towns, by the statistics, is only an average post up player at this point in the season. He has recorded 150 points on 173 possessions, placing him in the 45th percentile for all players in the league, according to Synergy. Additionally, 21 percent of his possessions in the post result in turnovers, with 45 percent resulting in scores. Obviously, reducing turnovers and increasing scoring efficiency will help Embiid become even more dominant than he already is.

Transition: Another area where Embiid could improve is his transition play. At times, Embiid will get out of control or try to do too much off of the dribble. He ranks in the 8th percentile in the NBA for transition efficiency, scoring just 34 points on 47 possessions, according to Synergy. Luckily for the Sixers, these plays make up only 9 percent of Embiid’s total offensive play types.

Rebounding / Attacking The Offensive Glass: Considering how athletic and long Embiid is, you might expect him to gobble up offensive rebounds. However, this season the Sixers’ big man is only averaging two offensive rebounds per game and has recorded just 33 points on 32 put back opportunities, ranking him in the league’s 39th percentile. This may be due in part to the Sixers’ limiting Embiid’s minutes to protect him from further injury.

******

In the next part of the Prodigies series, we will evaluate the Phoenix Suns’ Devin Booker and the Timberwolves’ Andrew Wiggins.

 

All statistics are courtesy of Synergy and Basketball-Reference.com and are current as of January 12, 2017

After playing four years of college basketball at Drexel University, Jake Rauchbach coached at the collegiate level, founded The MindRight Pro Program and trained numerous professional and Olympic athletes. Now, Rauchbach writes about the NBA and college basketball for Basketball Insiders and serves as the Player Performance Specialist for Temple University's men's basketball team.

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NBA Daily: Spurs Enter New Territory After Moving Parker To Reserve Role

The San Antonio Spurs are seemingly entering a new phase as Tony Parker has been moved to a reserve role.

James Blancarte

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San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg made a significant change to his rotation earlier this week. On Sunday, January 21 Popovich placed guard Dejounte Murray into the starting lineup in place of Tony Parker. The Spurs went on to lose the game at home to the Indiana Pacers. The result was the same as a losing effort in Friday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors in Toronto.

The San Antonio Spurs came into the 2017-18 hoping to bounce back from last year’s playoffs where the team suffered injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Parker and eventually lost to the Golden State Warriors. This season started off with the Spurs surviving without Leonard and Parker as the two continued to rehab from lingering injuries. As of now, Leonard is once again taking time off to rehabilitate after playing in nine games while Parker has been able to stay healthy so far. Unfortunately, being healthy enough to play doesn’t make up for the inevitable decline that comes with age and injuries.

On the season, Parker is averaging a career low in minutes (21.6), assists (4.0) and points (8.2), as well as free throws made and attempted per game. His usage rate, player efficiency rating (PER) and shooting percentages are also all at or around career lows. It’s hard to argue against the notion that Parker, at 35 years old with 17 years of pro basketball under his belt, is in the twilight of his impressive career.

Parker has acknowledged his demotion but seems to be handling it like a true professional.

“[Popovich] told me he thought it was time, and I was like, ‘no problem.’ Just like Manu [Ginobili], just like Pau [Gasol], you know that day is going to come,” Parker said recently. .

Before Sunday’s game, Parker had started 1151 of 1164 games played, all with the Spurs of course.

Popovich was asked specifically if the plan was either to start Murray at point guard moving forward or if this switch in the lineup was a part of some kind of injury management program for Parker. Never known for being overly loquacious, Popovich responded with little detail or insight.

“We’ll see,” Popovich stated.

In the starting lineup, Murray logged eight points, four assists, seven rebounds, three steals and one block in nearly 28 minutes of action. Murray had previously started before Parker returned from injury earlier this season but eventually relinquished that spot to career reserve guard Patty Mills.

Parker also spoke of the benefit of coming off the bench and potentially mentoring Murray’s growth in his new presumed role as the starter.

“If Pop [Coach Popovich] sees something that is good for the team, I will try to do my best,” Parker said. “I will support Pop’s decision and I will try to help DJ [Murray] as best as I can and try to be the best I can in the second unit with Manu [Ginobili] and Patty [Mills].”

If nothing else, this move will allow the Spurs to see if Parker can be more effective in limited minutes against opposing bench units. Additionally, Parker will hopefully benefit from playing alongside his longtime running mate, Ginobli.

Parker’s willingness to mentor Murray may come as a relief to Spurs fans watching the ongoing dismantling of San Antonio’s former Big-3, which began with the retirement of future Hall-of-Famer, Tim Duncan. At 6-foot-5, Murray benefits from greater size and athleticism than Parker, although Murray failed to keep the starting job when given an opportunity earlier this season. Coach Popovich gave another straightforward answer when asked which areas he thinks Murray can improve in.

“He’s 21-years-old,” Popovich declared. “He can improve in all areas.”

After asking for a trade in the offseason, the Spurs have benefited from focusing their offense around LaMarcus Aldridge, who is having a bounce-back campaign. However, Leonard is now out indefinitely and the Minnesota Timberwolves have now caught the Spurs in the standings. The pressure is on for this resilient Spurs team, which has again managed to beat the odds despite an injured and aging roster.

Parker became a starter for the Spurs at age 19 and never looked back. Now all eyes are on Murray to see how well he performs in his second stint with the starters at a crucial point in the season.

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Sources: Milwaukee Bucks Fire Coach Jason Kidd

Basketball Insiders

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The Milwaukee Bucks have fired coach Jason Kidd, sources ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN

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Defensive Player Of The Year Watch – 1/22/17

Spencer Davies checks into the DPOY race with his latest list of candidates.

Spencer Davies

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It’s a new year and Basketball Insiders is continuing its Defensive Player of the Year watch with sample sizes widening and new players emerging in the conversation.

There were a couple of names knocked out of the list, but that gives more of a spotlight to those who have really stepped up since our last edition ran on December 29. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

 6. Hassan Whiteside

After missing nearly a month of action with a knee injury, Whiteside has returned with a vengeance. The Miami HEAT were already a good defensive team before he came back, but he’s really bolstered that reputation even further. Since Dec. 26, the 7-foot center has recorded eight multi-block games. In five of those, he had at least four swats, including a six-rejection performance in a win at Milwaukee. Overall in ESPN’s Defensive Real-Plus Minus, Whiteside owns by far the best rating at 4.73. “Agent Block” is back and daring all comers to try him.

5. Anthony Davis

Slowly but surely, the New Orleans Pelicans are creeping away from the bottom of the league in defensive rating. Once ranked in the bottom five a few weeks ago, they’ve shot up to 18th in the league (108.4) rather quickly. While that’s not the most impressive statistic to provide, the obvious reason for their improved standing on that end of the floor is Davis. He’s been an absolute workhorse for Alvin Gentry in the restricted area as an elite rim protector, with a heavy responsibility and a ton of minutes. Without him on the floor, the Pels are allowing 8.9 more points per 100 possessions, which puts Davis in the 96th percentile according to Cleaning The Glass.

4. Josh Richardson

Notice there are two members of the HEAT on this list. It’s because they are on fire right now, no pun intended, so it’s about time they received some love in the conversation for DPOY. Whiteside was addressed first, but if we’re talking about a greater sample size with consistent evidence, Richardson fits the bill. Opponents are attempting over 11 shots per game against him, yet are only making 38.9 percent of those tries. That’s the lowest conversion rate in the league with a minimum of 10 attempts.

Battling injuries a season ago, Richardson has played in all 46 games for Miami this year. While it’s been a team effort, he is the heart and soul of Erik Spoelstra’s defense, taking on the most difficult assignments each game. For that reason, he deserves long overdue recognition on this list.

3. Kevin Durant

This isn’t a case where Durant is slipping because of his performances. He’s only ranked third this time around because of the job others have done outside of him. The Golden State Warriors are still a juggernaut on both sides of the court. He’s still a top-notch individual defender. The numbers don’t suggest otherwise and the eye test certainly confirms it.

In isolation situations, Durant is allowing only 0.53 points per possession, which is second in the NBA to only Tony Snell. When it comes to crunch time, he’s always locking up. In fourth quarters, he is limiting the competition to shooting less than 30 percent—and his defended field goal percentage and field goal percentage discrepancy is the best in the league at -17.2. He’s got as good of a chance as anybody to take home DPOY.

2. Joel Embiid

Everybody loves to focus on the off-court antics and hilarities that come with Embiid, but the man deserves his due when it comes to his reputation in the NBA as a truly dominant big. The Philadelphia 76ers have won seven out of their last eight games and it has started on the defensive end of the floor.

Take the games against Boston, for example. Al Horford is a crucial part of the Celtics offense and has had problems getting going against the 23-year-old. In the 22 minutes per game, he’s been on the floor along with him, Horford has been held to below 30 percent from the field on an average of nine attempts. With Embiid off, he’s converted nearly 73 percent of his tries.

Another matchup you can examine is with Andre Drummond. The two have had their fair share of words with each other, but Embiid’s had the edge one-on-one. Similar to Horford, the Detroit Pistons big man has had a rough time against him. Embiid has limited Drummond to under 38 percent on five attempts per game in an average of over 23 minutes on the floor together. When he’s not playing, Drummond has had close to a 78 percent success rate.

Regarding centers, Embiid ranks second in ESPN’s DRPM and fifth in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box Plus-Minus. Citing Cleaning The Glass, the Sixers are allowing 10 more points per 100 possessions when he’s sitting, which slots Embiid into the 97th percentile.

He’s altering shots. He’s blocking shots. He’s forcing kick outs. And that’s a big reason why the NBA gave Embiid its Eastern Conference Player of the Week honors. Trust The Process.

1. Paul George

Basketball Insiders was well represented this past Saturday in Cleveland when the Oklahoma City Thunder decimated the Cavaliers in their own building. The focus was on the “OK3” exposing a terrible defense, but the real story in this game was how in-tune and sound George was on both ends of the court. He was sizzling shooting the basketball, but perhaps more defining was shutting down LeBron James on a day that was supposed to belong to him.

Any time 23 got the ball to try and get the Cavs going, George was there. He suffocated him with pressure, forcing James into bad decisions and contested shots. The talk of the day was the 30,000-point mark, but PG-13 had other ideas.

“I was hopeful that it took two games for him to get to that,” George said after the 148-124 win at Quicken Loans Arena. “I actually didn’t know that stat until right before coming into [Saturday]. They told me he needed 25 to go to 30,000. I’ve been a part of a lot of those baskets that he’s had, so that’s an achievement or milestone I didn’t want to be a part of.”

Thunder teammate Steven Adams spoke to his prowess on that end of the floor.

“He’s a really good defender man,” Adams said. “It was like a perfect matchup, honestly. He played LeBron really well in terms of our system and what we want him doing. He did an amazing job there.”

Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan is a huge fan as well.

“He really I think puts forth good effort,” Donovan said pre-game. “He’s long, smart. He’s disruptive. He’s got good feet. He’s a physical defender. He’s hard to shoot over. Certainly, with he and Andre [Roberson] on the wings, that’s certainly bolstered our defense.”

That was one performance, but it’s obvious how much George brings to the table as one of the toughest guys to score on in this league. He’s got a league-leading 188 deflections and is tied with Eric Bledsoe at the top of the NBA with 2.2 steals per game.

Recently, the Thunder have allowed 91 points at most in three of their last four games. They are also in the top three allowing just 104.7 points per 100 possessions and George has been a huge part of that.

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