Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Three, where we re-convene each Friday to take a snapshot of three plays, trends or stats we’ve seen in the league over the past week.
Today’s Big Three will feature some notes on the league’s record-setting offense(s), a look at rookie Joel Embiid’s ludicrous per-possession statistics, and a fun Play of the Week from the Jazz that demonstrates the value of passing big men and the ability to leverage defensive expectations against them. Let’s get started! As always, all statistics will be from prior to Friday night’s games.
- All the Way Up
It shouldn’t surprise you one bit that there’s a legendary offense in the NBA this season. In fact, it shouldn’t even surprise you that as of this writing, it’s the most dominant offense in the history of the league on a per-possession basis.
Okay, maybe this part will surprise you: It’s not the Warriors.
In fairness, that’s a bit of a disingenuous statement. If the season ended today, the Warriors would indeed have posted a better offense than any team in any prior season before this year. But they’d still be second to the Raptors.
That’s right, Toronto is both the top offense in the league and, to this point, the best the NBA has ever seen. Per basketball-reference.com, the Raps and Dubs would rank first and second on the all-time list if they kept up this rate.
It isn’t all that shocking to see the Warriors on this list given their roster, but this has to qualify as a huge surprise in Toronto’s case. We knew the Raptors were a very good offense – they’ve been in the league’s top 10 the last three seasons, and the top five the last two. But they’ve never come anywhere all that close to this level, and with mostly similar personnel returning this year, this was really hard to see coming.
There isn’t one single big reason for the jump, but rather a few small-to-medium ones. The Raptors were already great at taking care of the ball, but they’ve shaved nearly two turnovers per-100-possessions this year and sit decimals away from the league low in giveaways. They also were quite good shooting the three-ball last year, but once again they’ve been even better – 37 percent has jumped up to an even 40 percent, and they’re shooting about one more per game.
They’re nibbling around the margins to trim the fat in a few other areas, too. They’ve gone from a bottom-10 transition scoring team to a top-10 group overnight, adding a few extra points a game the easy way. They’re grabbing a few extra second-chance buckets here and there, a nice surprise with Bismack Biyombo no longer in town, and are generating more points following turnovers than any other team in the league.
The Raptors still have some of the fewest assisted baskets in the league, a sign many like to point to as a concern for an offense, but it hasn’t mattered one bit. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have been just as good as ever, and role players are stepping up.
More than anyone, coach Dwane Casey deserves major credit – he’s taken his share of criticism over the years, especially in the playoffs from this pen, but it’s clear few bench bosses in the league reach their group and get more out of them consistently than Casey in Toronto. He’s got this offense humming on continuity and what’s clearly a perfect system for their skill sets, and they’ve been historically good so far.
- Trust the Awesomeness
Joel Embiid literally nicknamed himself “Trust the Process” earlier this year, and it might not even crack his top-five most entertaining qualities on the season so far. Embiid is running away with the Rookie of the Year race even on a minutes limit for most of the year, and doing it while providing nightly highlights and flashes of his ridiculous potential.
High up on JoJo’s entertainment list are some of his statistical outputs. That aforementioned minutes limit has probably kept him a little fresher, meaning it’s unlikely he’d keep these figures up over the course of a 30-plus minute load nightly, but Embiid’s per-100-possession stats are simply stupid: 36.9 points, 15.7 rebounds, 5.2 blocks and a legitimately awe-inspiring 7.7 (seven-point-seven) turnovers.
Embiid would be the only rookie ever to play at least 100 minutes and average these kinds of figures – shoot, he’d be the only rookie ever to play at least 10 minutes on the season and still post these numbers. You have to significantly lower his point and turnover output to find any other comparables, but once you do, the list is pretty impressive: David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Blake Griffin and Arvydas Sabonis are the only other guys who have even come close to matching Embiid’s output during their first season in the league.
The 76ers have mostly been a mess outside Embiid’s ridiculous nightly performances, but he’s singlehandedly keeping them watchable at this point.
- Play of the Week
Our Play of the Week this time around comes to us via Salt Lake City – or perhaps via France, if you look at it the right way.
The Jazz under Quin Snyder have been moderately maligned at times for a slow-paced, sometimes bland offense – even at points this season, where they’re a borderline top-five per-possession offense in the league. And make no mistake, there are times where the Jazz play a very deliberate and sometimes repetitive style of offense under Snyder. Of course, in his first year with real talent at every position, the results are beginning to speak for themselves.
In some cases, that reputation is yielding some positive results. A few new personnel additions like George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson have allowed Snyder to open up his playbook a bit, and in particular to leverage the expectations he knows his style is sometimes creating in defenses.
On this play against Oklahoma City from Wednesday night, Snyder is leveraging Diaw’s fantastic passing from the four-spot – maybe the best in the entire league (if we count LeBron James as a small forward). It’s something the Jazz have done all year and even more often lately, and it’s easy to see why: Diaw takes a joy in passing most guys his size just don’t.
The bit of leverage we mentioned, however, really isn’t of Diaw’s doing at all. It’s a clever play call from Snyder, and a good bit of recognition from the other two guys involved in the play. Let’s take a look.
The Jazz start the set on the right wing, swinging the ball to Rodney Hood and looking to set up Diaw in post position on the block:
Hood gets the ball in to Diaw, and the Jazz go to work. Notice that even as the pass is just arriving to Diaw in the post, Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward (center of the screen) are setting up for some off-ball action.
This is where the little bit of trickery comes in. Look at the above still image again – this is a snapshot opponents see 30 or 40 times a game from Utah, and in almost every case, Hayward (or Hood, or Hill) is about to use a Gobert down screen to fly up to the top of the key. Standard stuff.
Except that’s not what they’re doing here. Within less than a second, Hayward has flipped the script – he’s the one setting the screen on Gobert’s man, Enes Kanter, rather than the other way around. Meanwhile, Gobert is rumbling toward the hoop, already aware of something the Thunder still haven’t noticed.
Kanter is stopped dead in his tracks. Never the most hyper-aware defender in the first place, he’s been completely fooled here, and he’s still at the foul line as Gobert is dunking the ball. Kyle Singler notices what’s happening at the last second and makes a valiant effort to contest, but at that point it’s useless. He’s going up for a lob against a seven-footer with the longest recorded wingspan in league history, and there’s only one way that’s ending.
There’s nothing all that complex here, but the play is a great illustration of how the Jazz’s deliberate style (or other teams with similar ones) can lull some defenses to sleep. This set is snuffed out in a couple moments if everyone in a Thunder uniform is fully engaged, but it’s already tough to do that for every second of an intense NBA game – and it inherently becomes tougher when your brain is conditioned to expect the same thing over and over again.
It’s not even the first time the Jazz have run the set to perfection in the past week, in fact. They got an even cleaner dunk for Gobert against the Kings on Saturday using the exact same play, just inverted to the other side of the floor:
It’s the little details that can make the difference in this league, and the Jazz have been well on top of them this year. Snyder has flown below the radar, but may receive some Coach of the Year buzz before long if the Jazz continue to perform at a top-five per-possession rate in the league despite missing multiple starters most of the year.
Second Half NBA Story lines
With the All-Star break in the rearview, here are the key storylines to keep an eye on for the home stretch of the season.
The long winter has ended.
Ok, not really. But the break after All-Star weekend has finally come to a halt, and the second half of the NBA season is ready to get underway.
Each team has around 25 games remaining on the schedule. February is in its last week, and March and April will truly define how the May schedule aligns. The first leg of this season provided more than enough entertainment, combating the narrative that the regular season is a bit of a bore nowadays.
Because of some unexpected turns through the 50-plus games already played, this final stretch that will bring the regular season to a close should be more than entertaining for the fans that think the NBA season is just a six-month placeholder for the inevitable.
So, as we get ready to bounce back into action Thursday night, let’s focus on what needs to be monitored down the homestretch.
Houston Rockets can make the Finals
When the Golden State Warriors signed Kevin Durant, a narrative swept across the league that everyone not in the Bay area should just wave the white flag. Game over.
After dropping just one game through the entire postseason last year, completely decimating LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals, the assumptions were proved correct.
But things may be different this year.
The Houston Rockets are trying to end the Warriors’ Durant-Era dynasty before it starts. After trading for Chris Paul in the offseason, the Rockets are in a legitimate position to pose a threat to Golden State.
At the moment, the Rockets have the best offense in the NBA. But, not just for this season, for every season. Their efficiency is revolutionary and unprecedented. Their defense is improved, too. Ranking 18th in defensive rating last season, Houston is eighth this season, and proving to be competent enough on that end to get a few stops of their own against the Warriors. In fact, Houston has won two of the three meetings between the two Western Conference powerhouses so far this season.
For all of the damage Houston put on the league pre-All-Star break, and even leaping Golden State in the standings, the oddsmakers are taking notice.
Take a look at how drastically the Rockets’ odds at contending for a title have changed from the summer to present day. According to this odds tracker on Sports Betting Dime, Houston has almost entered the same realm as Golden State in the bettors’ mind.
Postseason basketball is a different beast, and Durant and Steph Curry are as formidable a tandem as any (not to mention their supporting cast), but the growing pile of statistics that says Houston has more than a puncher’s chance is becoming hard to ignore.
These last 25 or so games will be telling as to if the Rockets are truly a team that can go shot-for-shot with the mighty Warriors.
LeBron’s new teammates
The trade deadline in Cleveland was basically a mass upheaval of the roster the Cavaliers had struggled with for the first four months of the season.
Isaiah Thomas, Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder, Iman Shumpert, Derrick Rose and Channing Frye were all shipped from The Land in hopes to bring LeBron James new players that could help him back to his eighth straight Finals appearance.
So far, so good.
The return that brought George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr., into wine and gold gave the Cavaliers a much-needed boost heading into the All-Star break. Since the trade, Cleveland has won three straight games, the last two including a blowout victory against the Boston Celtics, and a road win in Oklahoma City.
But, before the roster turnovers, the Cavaliers were one of the league’s worst defensive units. Their lack of consistent effort on a nightly basis was beginning to spread doubt in the basketball minds across the league that the team would be equipped enough to beat the Celtics or Toronto Raptors in the postseason.
Coming out of the break, the Cavaliers will take on another playoff contender in the Washington Wizards. Another strong showing from the new-look Cavs could further the belief that the team is now in a better position to make their way to a fourth straight Finals.
As the regular season comes to its final stages, close eyes will be kept on Hood, Hill, Nance and Clarkson. They’re the key to any real postseason success Cleveland hopes to have. We know LeBron will be there at the end, at this point, and it’s worth watching to see if it teammates can join him.
Tight Playoff Races
For all the talk that surrounds the lack of disparity and entertainment around the league, the playoff races in both conferences appear to be coming down to the wire.
In the West, the 10th-seed Utah Jazz is just two and a half games behind the 5th-seed Oklahoma City Thunder. In between the two clubs, Denver, Portland, New Orleans and the L.A. Clippers are all clawing for spots in the postseason.
Over their last 10 games, every team besides the Thunder is at least .500. The Jazz have won 11 straight games, the Clippers are 7-3 and surging, Denver is hoping to return Paul Millsap to their lineup soon, the Trail Blazers have the luxury of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and while the Pelicans have lost DeMarcus Cousins, their three straight wins suggest they’re learning to live without Boogie.
That’s six teams fighting fiercely for four playoff spots. Each is deserving and well-equipped enough to make it to the postseason happen.
The West isn’t the only conference with a wild bunch at the bottom of the playoff standings. The Eastern Conference contenders also find themselves in the midst of a playoff battle post-All-Star break.
Just outside of the playoff picture at the moment, the Detroit Pistons, with new star Blake Griffin, are just four and a half games behind the 5th-seeded Indiana Pacers. Philadelphia, Miami and Milwaukee are all also vying for their spot in the playoffs.
At the moment, the Miami HEAT seems to be on the verge of being the odd man out, losing two straight before the break and seven of their last 10 games. As the Pistons begin to find new life with Griffin, they could bump Miami right out of the picture if their slide continues as games pick back up.
With a limited number of games remaining, each of these teams in both conferences cannot afford to fall into a rut. Coming down to the final weeks of the season, watching the playoff carousel develop will be entertaining and worthwhile.
In the blink of an eye, the 2017-18 regular season is almost over. Be sure to keep an eye on these unfolding storylines as the league charges towards playoff basketball.
NBA Daily: Larry Nance Jr. Is Ready To Move On
At All-Star Weekend, Larry Nance Jr. talked about moving on from being traded, Dr. J and the love that Los Angeles still has for him.
At the end of the day, the NBA is a business and Larry Nance Jr. found that out the hard way when the Los Angeles Lakers traded him and Jordan Clarkson for Isaiah Thomas, Channing Frye and the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2018 first-rounder just a few weeks ago.
Naturally, Nance was due back at the Staples Center nine days later to compete in the league’s annual slam dunk contest. Although he would finish second to the Utah Jazz’s Donovan Mitchell, Nance was frequently reminded just how many fans he still has out on the West Coast.
“It’s either one of two responses,” Nance said over the weekend. “Either people don’t understand how a trade works and they ask me why I left, or, you know: ‘Larry, we miss you, come back in free agency’ and stuff like that. So, either way, they’re kinda on my side — I mean, I’m still a little bit of purple and gold.”
Over his first three seasons, Nance had become a familiar contributor for the Lakers, using his rim-rocking athleticism to carve out a steady role under two different head coaches. Before he was moved to the Cavaliers, Nance was on pace to set career-highs in points (8.6), rebounds (6.8) and steals (1.4). This statistical rise also comes in the midst of his field goal percentage jumping all the way up to 59.3 percent — a mark that would rank him fifth-highest in the NBA if he qualified.* Given the noteworthy change of scenery, his current average of 3.6 field goals per game could grow as well.
But as the Lakers prepare for a potentially crucial offseason, the front office remained committed to shedding salary ahead of free agency, where they may or may not chase the likes of LeBron James, Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. In just three short years, Nance had quickly become a fan favorite as a jaw-dropping in-game dunker and an improving prospect on a cheap rookie contract, so his involvement at the deadline may have come as a surprise to many as it was for him.
“It’s been a week, so, no, it’s still kinda like: ‘Jeez, I gotta pick up and move right now,’” Nance said. “So, no, I’m not fully adjusted, I’m not, for a lack of a better term, over it. But it’s still fresh in my mind, it’s something that is still kind of shocking.”
Nance, for his worries, is now a key member of the James-led Cavaliers, a franchise that has won 11 more games than the Lakers and sits in third place in the Eastern Conference. While the Cavaliers will likely have to go through the Boston Celtics or Toronto Raptors to reach their fourth consecutive NBA Finals, James himself has reached the championship series every year since the 2009-10 postseason. With the Cavaliers’ maniacal mid-season reboot — which also brought in Rodney Hood, George Hill and the aforementioned Clarkson — they could be poised for an encore performance.
Since he was acquired by Cleveland, Nance and the Cavaliers are 3-0 and, just like that, much of the lingering narrative has been reversed. As the Cavaliers look to further stabilize their season, Nance figures to play a large part down the stretch, particularly so as All-Star Kevin Love continues to rehab from a broken hand.
Still, Nance knows that the Cavaliers will certainly face some speed bumps along the way.
“It’s a learning process, obviously we started out super fast, but there will be a learning process,” Nance stated. “Just like there is with every team and every new group, so we’ll figure it out and we’ll get past it [for the] playoffs.”
But before he makes his first-ever postseason appearance, Nance returned to Los Angeles in an attempt to capture a slam dunk title, something his father — Larry Nance Sr. — did in the inaugural competition way back in 1984. In that contest, the older Nance famously upset Julius Erving and Dominique Wilkins to take home the crown in a nine-person field. On Saturday, Nance paid homage by changing into a retro Phoenix Suns uniform to execute his father’s signature dunk — the rock-the-cradle throwdown that won it all 34 years ago.
“For me, [his highlights were] like normal kid Sesame Street or Barney or something. I was watching his clips when I was growing up, so, yeah, I see it all the time,” Nance recalled.
But when asked what he remembers the most about those distant memories, the second generation son decidedly kept it in the family.
“The fact that he beat Dr. J,” Nance said. “Dr. J is normally thought of as almost like the dunk inventor, kinda brought the dunk contest back — but, really, [I remember] my dad.”
Although Nance couldn’t replicate his father’s success in the contest, his emphatic, springy dunks indicated that the 6-foot-9 skywalker could be an event staple for years to come. In one of the best dunks all night, Nance pulled off the rare double tap — a jam so technically difficult, that he immediately told the judges to look at the jumbotron to make sure they understood what exactly he had just pulled off.
Nance, for his original acrobatics, earned a perfect score of 50.
Earlier that day, Nance discussed the difficulty in standing out amongst a field of explosive guards.
“I think the guys that are taller and longer have a different skill-set than smaller guys,” Nance said. “Obviously, if the smaller guys do something, it looks super impressive because they got to jump a little bit higher, or it looks like they got to jump higher.
“There are ways for bigger guys to look good and I think I’ve got that hammered out.”
For now, Nance doesn’t know if he’ll return to the dunk contest next season after his narrow two-point loss to Mitchell. Instead, Nance wants to focus on helping the Cavaliers in their hunt for the conference’s top seed and, of course, with James, anything is possible. But it’s fair to say that Nance, who nearly pulled down a double-double (13 points, nine rebounds) in his second game with Cleveland, has gone from a rebuild to a legitimate contender in a flash.
“At the same time, I can’t wait for all this to be done with so I can just get back to learning how to gel and mesh with my new team,” Nance said.
From the West Coast to the Midwest, Nance is clearly ready to make some waves once again.
* * * * * *
*To qualify, a player must be on pace for 300 made field goals. As of today, Nance is on pace for 252.6.
Updating the Buyout Market: Who Could Still Become Available?
Shanes Rhodes examines the buyout market to see which players could soon be joining playoff contenders.
While it may not be as exciting as the NBA Trade Deadline, another important date is approaching for NBA teams: the Playoff Eligibility Waiver Deadline.
March 1 is the final day players can be bought out or waived and still be eligible to play in the postseason should they sign with another team. As teams continue to fine-tune their rosters, plenty of eyes will be on the waiver wire and buyout market looking for players that can make an impact.
So who could still become available?
Joakim Noah, New York Knicks
This seems almost too obvious.
The relationship between Joakim Noah and the New York Knicks hasn’t been a pleasant one. Noah, who signed a four-year, $72 million contract in 2016, has done next to nothing this season after an underwhelming debut season in New York and has averaged just 5.7 minutes per game.
After an altercation between himself and Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek at practice, Noah isn’t expected to return to the team. At this point, the best thing for both sides seems likely a clean break; there is no reason to keep that cloud over the Knicks locker room for the remainder of the season.
Noah may not help a playoff contender, but he should certainly be available come the end of the season.
Arron Afflalo, Orlando Magic
Arron Afflalo isn’t the player he once was. But he can still help any contender in need of some shooting.
Afflalo is averaging a career-low 12.9 minutes per game with the Orlando Magic this season. He is playing for just over $2 million so a buyout wouldn’t be hard to come by if he went asking and he can still shoot the basketball. A career 38.6 percent shooter from long distance, Afflalo can certainly get it done beyond the arc for a team looking to add some shooting or some depth on the wing. He doesn’t add the perimeter defense he could earlier in his career, but he could contribute in certain situations.
Vince Carter, Sacramento Kings
Vince Carter was signed by the Sacramento Kings last offseason to play limited minutes off the bench while providing a mentor for the Sacramento Kings up-and-coming players. And Carter may very well enjoy that role.
But, to a degree, the old man can still ball — certainly enough to help a contender.
Carter is 41-years-old, there is no getting around his age, but he can still provide some solid minutes off the bench. Playing 17.1 minutes per night across 38 games this season, Carter has averaged five points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists while shooting 35.3 percent from three-point range. Combining all of that with his playoff experience and the quality of leadership he brings to the table, Carter may be an ideal addition for a contender looking to make a deep playoff run.
Zach Randolph, Sacramento Kings
Like Carter, Zach Randolph was brought in by the Kings to contribute solid minutes off the bench while also filling in as a mentor to the young roster. Unlike Carter, however, Randolph has played much of the season in a starting role — something that is likely to change as the season winds down.
Randolph has averaged 14.6 points, seven rebounds and 2.1 assists in 25.6 minutes per game; quality numbers that any team would be happy to take on. But, in the midst of a rebuild, the Kings should not be taking minutes away from Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere and (eventually) Harry Giles in order to keep Randolph on the floor.
As he proved last season, Randolph can excel in a sixth-man role and would likely occupy a top bench spot with a team looking to add rebounding, scoring or just a big to their rotation down the stretch.
Wesley Matthews, Dallas Mavericks
Wesley Matthews remains one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He provides positional versatility on the floor and is a solid player on both sides of the ball.
So, with Mark Cuban all but saying the Mavericks will not be trying to win for the remainder of the season, Matthews is likely poised for a minutes dip and seems like an obvious buyout candidate. Matthews, who has a player option for next season, has averaged 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals this season across 34.1 minutes per game this season.
If Cuban is true to his word, both parties would be better served parting ways; the Mavericks can attempt to lose as many games as possible while Matthews can latch on to a team looking to win a title. It’s a win-win.
Isaiah Thomas, Los Angeles Lakers
Isaiah Thomas’ three-game stint with the Los Angeles Lakers before the All-Star break looked much like his short tenure with the Cleveland Cavaliers: up-and-down. Thomas shined in his Laker debut, putting up 25 points and six assists in just over 30 minutes.
He then followed that up with three points and two assists, and seven points along with five assists in his second and third games with the team, respectively.
Thomas needs time to get himself right before he can start playing his best basketball. Re-establishing his value is likely his top priority.
But will he be willing to come off the bench for a team that won’t be making the postseason?
With Lonzo Ball close to returning, Thomas will likely move to the Laker bench. Adamant in recent years that he is a starting guard in the NBA, Thomas may be more inclined to take on that role for a team poised to make a deep playoff run — there is no shortage of teams that would be willing to add Thomas’ potential scoring prowess while simultaneously setting himself up for a contract and, potentially, a starting role somewhere next season.
Other Names to Look Out For: Channing Frye, Shabazz Muhammed, Kosta Koufos
There are still plenty of players that can make an impact for playoff-bound teams should they reach a buyout with their current squads. And, as the Postseason Eligibility Waiver Deadline approaches, plenty of teams out of the running will move quickly in order to provide their guys an opportunity to find their way to a contender.