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The History of the “One-And-Done” Era

An in-depth look at the impact of “one-and-done” era for the NBA Draft.

Yannis Koutroupis

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Since recently taking over for the retired David Stern NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver has been adamantly clear that increasing the age limit for the NBA Draft is his top priority. In 2006 the league made high schoolers ineligible for the draft, requiring them to be at least a year removed graduation before being able to declare. This led to the creation of the term “one-and-done” to describe players who only attended college for a year before leaving for the draft. It’s important to note that prospects had the option to go to the D-League, like Latavious Williams did, or play overseas, which Brandon Jennings and Jeremy Tyler chose to do, rather than going to college. However, the vast majority took the NCAA route.

In the latest round of collective bargaining the league and player’s union discussed changes, but ultimately decided to put them off until further research was done. Now, a certain increase is on the horizon.

Below you will find some of the most relevant data on how the one-and-done era has gone, including career earnings, draft range selected, team history and much more so that you can see what is influencing the league to make this change. Note: Data ranges from 2006-2014:

  • 63 freshmen (one redshirt) have declared
  • 51 were selected in the first round, 8 in the second, 4 went undrafted.
  • 9 former draft picks are no longer in the NBA (Tyrus Thomas, Shawne Williams, Javaris Crittenton, DaQuan Cook, Donte Green, Bill Walker, Daniel Orton, Hassan Whiteside and Josh Selby)
  • 6 others have never played a game (Tiny Gallon, Grant Jerrett, Nate Miles, Tommy Mason-Griffin, Jereme Richmond, Roscoe Davis). Only Gallon and Jerrett were selected, both in the second round.
  • 8 have made All-Star appearances (Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis). Of the All-Stars none have left via free agency, yet. Only one, Holiday, doesn’t play for the team that he was originally drafted by. He was traded by the 76ers on draft night last year.

Freshmen drafted by year (Player – selection):

2006 – 2 (Tyrus Thomas* – 4th, Shawne Williams – 17th)
2007 – 8 (Greg Oden – 1st, Kevin Durant – 2nd, Mike Conley Jr. – 4th, Brandon Wright – 8th, Spencer Hawes – 10th, Thaddeus Young – 12th, Javaris Crittenton – 19th, Daequan Cook – 21st)
2008 – 12 (Derrick Rose – 1st, Michael Beasley – 2nd, O.J. Mayo – 3rd, Kevin Love – 5th, Eric Gordon – 7th, Jerryd Bayless – 11th, Anthony Randolph – 14th, J.J. Hickson – 19th, Kosta Koufos – 23rd, Donte Green – 28th, DeAndre Jordan – 35th, Bill Walker – 47th)
2009 – 4 (Tyreke Evans – 4th, DeMar DeRozan – 9th, Jrue Holiday – 17th, Byron Mullens – 24th, undrafted: Nate Miles)
2010 – 10 (John Wall – 1st, Derrick Favors – 3rd, DeMarcus Cousins – 5th, Xavier Henry – 12th, Eric Bledsoe – 18th, Avery Bradley – 19th, Daniel Orton – 29th, Hassan Whiteside – 33rd, Lance Stephenson -40th, Tiny Gallon – 47th, undrafted: Tommy Mason-Griffin)
2011 – 6 (Kyrie Irving – 1st, Tristan Thompson – 4th, Brandon Knight – 8th, Tobias Harris – 19th, Cory Joseph – 29th, Josh Selby – 49th, undrafted: Roscoe Davis, Jereme Richmond)
2012 – 9 (Anthony Davis – 1st, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – 2nd, Brad Beal – 3rd, Andre Drummond – 9th, Austin Rivers – 10th, Maurice Harkless – 15th, Tony Wroten – 25th, Marquis Teague – 29th, Quincy Miller – 38th)
2013 – 8 (Anthony Bennett – 1st, Nerlens Noel – 6th, Ben McLemore – 7th, Steven Adams – 12th, Shabazz Muhammad – 14th, Archie Goodwin – 29th, Ricky Ledo – 43rd, Grant Jerrett – 40th)

*Redshirt freshman

Freshmen Selected by pick:

No. 1 – 6
No. 2 – 3
No. 3 – 3
No. 4 – 4
No. 5 – 2
No.6 – 1
No. 7 – 2
No. 8 – 2
No. 9 – 2
No 10. – 2
No. 11 – 1
No. 12 – 3
No. 14 – 2
No. 15 – 1
No. 17 – 2
No. 18 – 1
No. 19 – 4
No. 21 – 1
No. 23 – 1
No. 24 – 1
No. 25 – 1
No. 28 – 1
No. 29 – 4
No. 33 – 1
No. 35 – 1
No. 38 – 1
No. 40 – 2
No. 43 – 1
No. 47 – 2
No. 49 – 1

Total freshmen drafted by team:

Sacramento Kings – 5 (Spencer Hawes, Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside, Ben McLemore)
Memphis Grizzlies – 5 (Mike Conley Jr., O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, Josh Selby, Tony Wroten)
Cleveland Cavaliers – 4 (J.J. Hickson, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett)
Oklahoma City Thunder – 4 (Kevin Durant, Byron Mullens, Steven Adams, Grant Jerrett)
Philadelphia 76ers – 4 (Thaddeus Young, Jrue Holiday, Maurice Harkless, Nerlens Noel)
Chicago Bulls – 3 (Tyrus Thomas, Derrick Rose, Marquis Teague)
Los Angeles Clippers – 3 (Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe)
Boston Celtics – 2 (Bill Walker and Avery Bradley)
Detroit Pistons – 2 (Brandon Knight, Andre Drummond)
Golden State Warriors – 2 (Brandon Wright, Anthony Randolph)
Indiana Pacers – 2 (Shawne Williams, Lance Stephenson)
Miami HEAT – 2 (Daquan Cook, Michael Beasley)
Milwaukee Bucks – 2 (Tiny Gallon, Tobias Harris)
Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 (Kevin Love, Shabazz Muhammad)
New Orleans Pelicans – 2 (Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers)
Portland Trail Blazers – 2 (Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless)
Washington Wizards – 2 (John Wall, Brad Beal)
Orlando Magic – 1 (Daniel Orton)
Brooklyn Nets – 1 (Derrick Favors)
Charlotte Bobcats – 1 (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist)
Dallas Mavericks – 1 (Ricky Ledo)
Denver Nuggets – 1 (Quincy Miller)
Los Angeles Lakers – 1 (Javaris Crittenton)
Phoenix Suns – 1 (Archie Godwin)
San Antonio Spurs – 1 (Cory Joseph)
Toronto Raptors – 1 (DeMar DeRozan)
Utah Jazz – 1 (Kosta Koufos)
Houston Rockets – 1 (Donte Green)
Atlanta Hawks – 0
New York Knicks – 0

Freshmen declared by university:

Kentucky – 10 (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Marquis Teague, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nerlens Noel, Archie Goodwin – does not include Enes Kanter, who attended, but never became eligible to play for Kentucky)
Ohio State – 5 (Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr., Daquan Cook, Kosta Koufos, Byron Mullens)
Texas – 4 (Kevin Durant, Avery Bradley, Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph)
Memphis – 3 (Shawne Williams, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans)
UCLA – 3 (Kevin Love, Jrue Holiday, Shabazz Muhammad)
Georgia Tech – 3 (Javaris Crittenton, Thaddeus Young, Derrick Favors)
Kansas – 3 (Xavier Henry, Josh Selby, Ben McLemore)
LSU – 2 (Tyrus Thomas and Anthony Randolph)
Washington – 2 (Spence Hawes and Tony Wroten)
USC – 2 (O.J. Mayo, DeMar DeRozan)
Kansas State – 2 (Bill Walker and Michael Beasley)
Arizona – 2 (Jerryd Bayless, Grant Jerrett)
Oklahoma – 2 (Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin)
Duke – 2 (Kyrie Irving, Austin Rivers)
1 – North Carolina (Brandon Wright), Indiana (Eric Gordon), North Carolina State (J.J. Hickson), Syracuse (Donte Green), Texas A&M (DeAndre Jordan), Cincinnati (Lance Stephenson), Tennessee (Tobias Harris), Florida (Brad Beal), UConn (Andre Drummond), St. John’s (Moe Harkless), Baylor (Quincy Miller), UNLV (Anthony Bennett), Pittsburgh (Steven Adams), Marshall (Hassan Whiteside), Southern Idaho (Nate Miles), Midland JC (Roscoe Davis), Providence (Ricky Ledo), Illinois (Jereme Richmond).

Career Earnings:

$60 million-$70 million – 1 (Kevin Durant)
$50 million-$59.9 million – 1 (Derrick Rose)
$40 million-$49.9 million – 2 (Eric Gordon, Kevin Love)
$30 million-$39.9 million – 6 (O.J Mayo, Michael Beasley, Thaddeus Young, DeAndre Jordan, Tyrus Thomas, Michael Conley Jr.)
$20 million-$29.9 million – 5(DeMar DeRozan, John Wall, Greg Oden, Tyreke Evans, Spencer Hawes)
$10 million-$19.9 million – 13 (Anthony Davis, Tristan Thompson, Anthony Randolph, Kosta Koufos, Daequan Cook, Shawne
Williams, Jerryd Bayless, J.J. Hickson, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Wright, Derrick Favors)
$5 million-$9.9 million – 9 (Donte Green, Anthony Bennett, Byron Mullens, Avery Bradley, Eric Bledsoe, Xavier Henry, Brandon Knight, Brad Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist)
$500,000-$4.9 million – 20 (Ricky Ledo, Archie Goodwin, Quincy Miller, Josh Selby, Hassan Whiteside, Shabazz Muhammad, Steven Adams, Marquis Teague, Tony Wroten, Daniel Orton, Ben McLemore, Bill Walker, Nerlens Noel, Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, Maurice Harkless, Javaris Crittenton, Tobias Harris, Austin Rivers, Andre Drummond)
$0 – 6 (Nate Miles, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin, Roscoe Davis, Jereme Richmond, Grant Jerrett)

What are your thoughts on the data? Is the NBA making the right choice by increasing the age limit, or are they trying to fix what isn’t broken? Leave your thoughts below!

Basketball Insiders intern Jesse Blancarte also contributed to this article.

Yannis Koutroupis is Basketball Insiders' Managing Site Editor and Senior Writer. He has been covering the NBA and NCAA for seven years.

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Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: The Top of The 2018 Draft Is Getting Crowded

The top of the projected 2018 NBA Draft is starting to get interesting, mainly because so many potential draft prospects are having incredibly dominant seasons.

Steve Kyler

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Things Are Getting Interesting

While the projected 2018 NBA Draft class doesn’t seem to have a future superstar sitting at the top of the board, there are potentially four players that are really looking the part of future NBA All-Stars and it’s making the top of the class very interesting.

Say what you want about stats, but there is little doubt that the numbers some of the top prospects are posting so far this season are pretty compelling.

Duke’s Marvin Bagley III is averaging 21.1 points per game to go with 10.9 rebounds. His 61.7 percent field goal average is impressive, especially when you consider he’s knocking in 34.6% of his three (9-26 on the season). Bagley has a 32.2 PER with a 64.6 True Shooting percentage and a 26.7 usage rate. In short, highly productive almost everywhere without having to own the basketball.

Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton is posting similarly ridiculous numbers, 19.5 points per game with 11.4 rebounds. His 61.7 percent from the field also comes with an impressive 30.4 percent three-point average (7-23 on the season). Ayton’s 32.3 PER is a nose higher than Bagley. He is also posting a whopping 65.6 True Shooting percentage with a 26.7 percentage usage rate. Again, highly productive in every way without being so ball-dominant to skew the numbers. Ayton hit the ground running at Arizona and really hasn’t had a bad game yet.

Oklahoma’s Trae Young has burst into the top-five discussion in a huge way. His 6’2 180-pound frame looks small on the court, but his game has been tremendous. Young is posting 28.7 points per game with a monster 10.4 assists per contest. He is grabbing 3.5 rebounds while shooting 48.5 percent from the field, 57.1 percent from two-point range and a scorching 41.1 percent from three (44 of 107 on the season). Young’s 38 PER is tops in all of college basketball. He has a 65.2 True Shooting percentage and a 36.1 usage rate. Unlike Bagley and Ayton, Young does control the ball, but that’s typical for an impact scoring point guard. He offsets the ball dominance with incredible assist numbers. He is also pretty spectacular to watch.

International phenom Luka Dončić is having a solid season in his own right, although his averages are lower because he doesn’t play the same volume of minutes as the NCAA collegiate prospects. In 26 games in both the Euroleague and the ACB, Dončić is posting 16.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per contest. He is shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from international three (48 of 135 on the season). Dončić is posting a 28.2 PER in Euroleague play and a 23.7 PER in ACB play. Dončić’s True Shooting numbers in Euroleague play are impressive at 66.2 percent. In ACB play his number drop a bit to 58.1 percent. His usage numbers illustrate the same slip. In Euroleague play, he posts a 30 percent usage rate while posting a 26.6 percent usage rate in ACB. Dončić typically plays more minutes and a larger role in Euroleague play. Hence the stat shift. If you haven’t seen him play, he’s so instinctual and gifted it easy to see why many see him as the top pick.

There are some compelling storylines to watch towards the top of the NBA draft board, which is likely why so many NBA executives seem split on who they would peg as the top talent in the projected 2018 Draft class.

So, with that out the way, lets jump into the latest first-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft:

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers’ 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015. The 76ers traded that pick to the Boston Celtics as part of the draft pick trade that became Markelle Fultz before the draft; it has 2 through 5 protections and based on the standings today would convey to Boston.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets’ first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer. The Brooklyn Nets traded several unprotected picks to Boston as part of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trades in 2015.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Jazz/Wolves Ricky Rubio trade this past summer. The Jazz acquired the pick as part of the Thunder’s deal to obtain Enes Kanter in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves’ first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors’ first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets’ first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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NBA Daily: Another 2018 NBA Mock Draft – 12/13/17

Basketball Insiders’ publisher Steve Kyler drops his latest 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Steve Kyler

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A little less than a month ago we dropped the first 2018 NBA Mock Draft, which was met with a lot of disdain. Which is often a good thing because it sparks the discussion in NBA circles.

Since that Mock dropped, we’ve seen a bit more play out of some of the top prospects and many of the assumptions made almost a month ago are starting to settle into place a little more clearly.

The prevailing thought from NBA scouts and executives is that the possible 2018 NBA Draft class has a lot more questions than answers. The common view is that outside of the top 3 or 4 players there could be a very wide range on who the next 10-12 players will be; so expect for the second tier to evolve a lot over the course of the college basketball season.

A couple of things have started to surface among NBA scouts and executives, there seem to be three camps emerging around the top overall player – Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and international phenom Luka Dončić, seem to be the leading names mentioned most, with Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton making a strong push into the discussion. We can safely call this a three-horse race at this point.

The prevailing belief is that none of the three is far and away better than the other as a professional prospect, making it more likely than not that the top player selected will have a lot more to do with which team ultimately lands the pick, more so than the player themselves.

This class also seems to be brimming with promising athletic point guards, which unlike last year’s draft, could provide a lot of options for teams still trying to find that impact point guard.

There also looks to be 27 players in the projected top 100 that are 6’10 or bigger, eight of which project in the top 30. To put that into perspective, there were 11 players 6’10 or bigger drafted in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft, and 17 total in the 60 2017 NBA Draft selections.

As we get into the 2018 calendar year, we’ll start to do deeper dives into the tiers of players and their possible NBA strengths and weakness.

So, with all of that in mind, here is the second 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would not convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

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NBA AM: The First 2018 NBA Mock Draft

With College Basketball getting underway and things starting to get interesting in the standings of the NBA, what better time to drop a 2018 Mock Draft than on Thanksgiving.

Steve Kyler

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The Thanksgiving 2018 NBA Mock Draft

With College Basketball getting underway and things starting to get interesting in the standings of the NBA, what better time to drop a 2018 Mock Draft than on Thanksgiving.

So with that in mind here is my first Mock Draft of the 2018 Season, look for more of these are we march on (and hopefully you like the new Mock Draft table design.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this summer.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would convey.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out our Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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