The intersection of sports and business is illuminated in its most fascinating light through player contracts. In virtually no other industry are so many details of an individual’s workplace compensation so public, nor so vital from a competitive standpoint: Some Fortune 500 company overpaying an executive is merely an overage, but one truly egregious NBA contract can doom a billion-dollar franchise for years. Talent and success beget rewards and promotions in all fields, but nowhere else is this reality so multi-faceted and potentially explosive.
Conversations related to individual player value, even among ostensibly informed folks, often reveal how hard it can be to separate these additional variables from our typical assessments. Just take the case of Cleveland Cavaliers big men Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson.
By all of our most commonly used tools for evaluating players, Love is a more valuable NBA player than Thompson – almost certainly by a wider gap than the $31 million difference (over five years) in their contracts signed last offseason would indicate. Love has been in the league longer but remains in his physical prime, and has been on another value-tier altogether from Thompson for the vast majority of his eight years in the league. He’s made three All-Star teams and two All-NBA teams; Thompson made the All-NBA Rookie Second Team.
Most evidence during the season would point in the same direction. Love played more minutes than Thompson (despite missing five more games), collecting more of every valuable counting statistic and proving significantly more efficient from a box score standpoint. He finished 10th in the NBA in ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric, which is designed to parse out individual impact independent of factors like teammate and opponent quality on both ends of the floor, while Thompson was unable to crack the top 100.
To one degree or another, most of these trends remained intact through the Eastern Conference playoffs. Love lit it up from deep (he remains one of three Cavs in the league’s all-time top 20 for playoff three-point accuracy as of this writing), and was second behind only LeBron James on the team in plus-minus despite playing the fourth-most minutes to that point. Thompson’s own production actually dipped from his regular season totals, though it didn’t matter much as the Cavs rolled through the East.
One might say things have gone a bit differently in the Finals.
Even putting aside Love’s one-game absence due to a concussion, the total reversal in impact has been staggering. Thompson is playing nearly eight more minutes a night against the Golden State Warriors, shooting 61 percent to Love’s 37 percent and making his more handsomely compensated teammate (and everyone else on the court besides LeBron James, really) look like a JV player on the glass. Tristan’s plus-38 while on the court easily leads the Cavaliers in a series where the two teams have scored an identical number of points; Love is one of just two rotation pieces still in the negative.
Thompson’s rebounding has been Dennis-Rodman-like against this Dubs team. SportVU data defines an offensive rebounding “chance” as any occasion where a player is within 3.5 feet of an available offensive board – Tristan and Andre Drummond naturally led the league by a wide margin in per game opportunities here for the regular season, both at slightly over eight per night.
For the series, though? Thompson is up well over 11 offensive rebounding chances per game. He’s collecting them at an identical rate – about 40 percent, actually a tad below league average – which is a sign that the Warriors are doing a solid job fighting him for the ball once it’s in the air, but he’s so relentless in his positioning and pursuit that he’s hurting them anyway. Let a guy with his energy level get near a loose ball enough times, and the results start favoring him.
Has Tristan Thompson suddenly become more valuable than Kevin Love as an NBA player? Of course not!
For starters, the shocking turnaround really isn’t all that shocking to the careful eye. Love’s issues against this Warriors team are obvious conceptually and even clearer in practice. He’s a visible defensive liability against a Dubs squad that subsists by devouring those uneven matchups; total ineffectiveness in the post even against smaller switches (he’s just not quick enough of mind or body to navigate their buzzing help schemes) has left him most frequently operating as a defensively challenged spot-up shooter.
Thompson, meanwhile, fits this series like a glove. He can hold up in any defensive match-up for 24 or fewer seconds at a time, a shadow sticking even to the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson both on and off the ball and allowing Cleveland to mimic Golden State’s switching scheme. He’s the ideal center for LeBron and Kyrie Irving, a roll man who sucks in help defenders with his gravity and can finish difficult lobs.
He’s the best rebounder on either team by a wide margin, a fact amplified by the knowledge that it’s one of a very small handful of things he’s asked to do. Thompson is wearing this Dubs team down with relentless energy, a growing factor with Andrew Bogut sidelined for the series.
All this touches on one of the major areas where the NBA and other pro sports leagues distinguish themselves as businesses: The concept of relative value.
The line of thinking is easy enough to follow, and the Love/Thompson situation illustrates it perfectly. In a vacuum and against at least 25 NBA teams, Kevin Love is worth more on the court than Tristan Thompson. But the NBA isn’t played in a vacuum, and the Cavs have operated in a highly contextualized situation since King James rode back into town. They aren’t concerned solely with those 25 teams, and in fact are much more focused on the other handful – primarily the historically great behemoth who beat them in the Finals a year ago.
Through the right theoretical lens, Thompson would be worth his $83 million deal if these six games were the first basketball he’d played all year. This team wasn’t being slowed in the Eastern Conference even if he took a vacation for that first month. Cleveland’s cap situation made replacing him impossible if they let him walk in restricted free agency last summer, and long playoff runs plus Dan Gilbert’s deep pockets mean the tax bill Tristan helped add to isn’t really a concern. Don’t think for a moment that Thompson’s specific role in a hypothetical Finals rematch wasn’t a primary negotiating point last summer.
The theme has relevance well beyond this team and this series, particularly headed into a summer of contract insanity. A guy’s value to a specific franchise could be wildly different than to many others. Players who are nowhere near worth the traditional “max contract” designation will get it anyway, and many will be “worth it” relative to that team’s goals. Some front offices will still surely make rash moves, but the method for determining these will go well beyond the dollar figures they hand out.
So were Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson worth their respective contracts? It’s all in the eye of the beholder, and in no other profession does this theme ring more true.
Middleton, Bucks Aiming To ‘Lock In’ As Season Comes To Close
Spencer Davies catches up with Milwaukee Bucks swingman Khris Middleton in a Basketball Insiders exclusive.
Basketball Insiders had the chance to chat with Khris Middleton about the direction of the Milwaukee Bucks as the season comes to a close.
You guys won three out of four before you came into Cleveland. What was working during that stretch?
Just being us. Doing it with our defense, playing fast-paced offense. Just trying to keep teams off the three-point line. We haven’t done that. We didn’t do that [Monday] or two games ago, but it’s something we’ve just gotta get back to.
With the offense—it seems like it’s inconsistent. What do you think that’s got to do with mostly?
Just trying to do it by ourselves sometimes. Standing, keeping the ball on one side of the floor. We’re a better team when we play in a fast pace. And then also in the half court, when we move the ball from side-to-side it just opens the paint for everybody and there’s a lot more space.
For you, on both ends you’ve been ultra-aggressive here in the last couple weeks or so, does that have to do with you feeling better or is it just a mindset?
I’ve been healthy all year. Right now, it’s the end of the season. Gotta make a push. Everybody’s gotta lock in. Have to be confident, have to be aggressive. Have to do my job and that’s to shoot the ball well and to defend.
Have you changed anything with your jumper? Looking at the past couple months back-to-back, your perimeter shooting was below 32 percent. In March it’s above 45 percent.
I feel like I got a lot of great looks earlier this year. They just weren’t falling. Right now, they’re falling for me, so I have the same mindset that I had when I was missing and that’s to keep on shooting. At some point, they’re gonna go down for me.
Is knowing that every game at this point means more an extra motivator for you guys?
Definitely. We’re basically in the playoffs right now. We’re in a playoff series right now where we have to win games, we have to close out games, in order to get the seeding and to stay in the playoffs. Each game and each possession means something to us right now.
Is it disappointing to be in the position the team is in right now, or are you looking at it as, ‘If we get there, we’re going to be alright’?
I mean, we wish we were in a better position. But where we’re at right now, we’re fine with it. We want to make that last push to get higher in the seeding.
Lots of changes have gone on here. Eric Bledsoe came in two weeks into the season. You had the coaching change and lineup changes. Jabari Parker’s been getting situated before the postseason. How difficult does that make it for you guys to build consistency?
Yeah, it was tough at first. But I think early on we had to adjust on the fly. We didn’t have too many practices. There was a stretch where we were able to get in the film room, get on the court, and practice with each other more.
Now it’s just at a point where we’re adding a lot of new guys off the bench where we have to do the same things—learn on the fly, watch film. We’re not on the court as much now, but we just have to do a great job of buying in to our system, try to get to know each other.
Does this team feel like it has unfinished business based on what happened last year?
Definitely. Last year, we felt like we let one go. Toronto’s a great team. They’re having a hell of a season this year, but I feel like we let one go. This year’s a new year—a little add of extra motivation. We’ve been in the playoff position before, so hopefully, we learn from it when we go into it this year.
Would you welcome that rematch?
I mean, we welcome anybody man. We showed that we compete with any team out here. We can’t worry about other teams as much. We just have to be focused on us.
What has to happen for you guys to achieve your full potential?
Lock in. Just play as hard as we can, play unselfish, and do our job out there night-in, night-out.
NBA Daily: Raptors Look To Fine-Tune The Defense
The Toronto Raptors’ defense had a letdown against the Cavaliers, but has been outstanding overall.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors engaged in an offensive shootout on Wednesday that could be a playoff preview. The Cavs protected home court with a single-possession, 132-129 victory. Afterward, the Raptors spoke about the types of defensive adjustments the team needs to make as the postseason rapidly approaches.
“That’s how a playoff game would be,” said DeMar DeRozan, who missed a three at the buzzer that could have forced overtime. “This is a team we’ve been playing against the last two years in the postseason. Understanding how we can tighten up things defensively, how to make things tougher for them [is key].
“[It’s] little small things that go a long way, and not just with them … with every team.”
Raptors coach Dwane Casey concurred with DeRozan that fine-tuning of the defense is needed. He also pointed out that, with young contributors such as center Jakob Poeltl and power forward Pascal Siakam on the roster, defensive experience against the league’s best player, LeBron James, is something they will have to gain on the fly.
“I don’t think Jakob Poeltl played against him that much, and Siakam,” said Casey. “This is their first time seeing it. I thought Jak and Pascal did an excellent job, but there are certain situations where they’ve got to read and understand what the other team is trying to do to them.”
Poeltl was outstanding, leading the bench with 17 points and tying for the team lead in rebounds with eight. Casey praised the diversity of his contributions.
“I thought he did an excellent job of rolling, finishing, finding people,” said Casey. “I thought defensively, he did a good job of protecting the paint, going vertical. So I liked what he was giving us, especially his defense against Kevin Love.”
Basketball Insiders previously noted how the Raptors have performed vastly better as a team this season when starting point guard Kyle Lowry is out of the game. Much of that is due to Fred VanVleet’s emergence as one of the NBA’s best reserve point guards. VanVleet scored 16 points with five assists and no turnovers against Cleveland. It’s also a reflection of how good Toronto’s perimeter defense has been up and down the roster.
According to ESPN’s defensive Real Plus-Minus statistic, three of the NBA’s top 15 defensive point guards play for the Raptors. VanVleet ranks seventh while Lowry is 12th and Delon Wright is 14th. Starting small forward OG Anunoby ranks 16th at his position.
The Raptors also rank in the top five in offensive efficiency (third) and defensive efficiency (fifth). Having established an identity as a defensive team, especially on the perimeter, it’s perhaps understandable that Lowry was the one player in the visiting locker room who took the sub-standard defensive showing personally.
“It was a disgraceful display of defense by us and we’ve got to be better than that,” said Lowry. “We’ve got to be more physical. They picked us apart and made a lot of threes. We’ve got to find a way to be a better defensive team.”
Lowry continued the theme of fine-tuning as the regular season winds down.
“I think we’ve just got to make adjustments on the fly as a team,” said Lowry. “We can score with the best of them, but they outscored us tonight. We got what we wanted offensively. We’re one of the top teams in scoring in the league, but we’re also a good defensive team.”
Lowry was clearly bothered by Toronto’s defensive showing, but Casey downplayed the importance of a single regular-season game.
“We’ve got to take these games and learn from them, and again learn from the situations where we have to be disciplined,” said Casey. “It’s not a huge thing. It’s situations where we are that we’ve got to learn from and be disciplined and not maybe take this step and over-help here. Because a team like that and a passer like James will make you pay.”
While the Raptors continue to gain experience and dial in the fine defensive details, Casey was insistent that his players should not hang their heads over falling short against Cleveland.
“Hopefully our guys understand that we’re right there,” said Casey.
The Raptors host the Brooklyn Nets tonight to open a three-game home stand that includes visits from the Clippers Sunday and the Nuggets Tuesday. After that, Toronto visits the Celtics March 31 followed by a return to Cleveland April 3 and a home game against Boston the next night. With three games in a row against the other two top-three teams in the East, the schedule presents plenty of opportunities for the Raptors to add defensive polish before the playoffs begin.
NBA Daily: Jaylen Brown Set To Return For Celtics
The Celtics finally got some good news on Thursday. Jaylen Brown’s return is imminent.
Finally, some good news for the Boston Celtics.
Jaylen Brown is set to return to action.
Brown has been M.I.A. since sustaining a concussion during the team’s 117-109 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves back on March 8, but has traveled with the team to Portland and is expecting to return to the lineup on Sunday when the Celtics do battle with the Sacramento Kings.
As the Celts gear up for a playoff run, which they hope will result in them ending LeBron James’ reign atop the Eastern Conference, they’ve picked the wrong time to run into injury issues. Along with Brown, both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart have each been conspicuous by their absences, and the team could certainly use all of their pieces as they attempt to enter the postseason on a high note.
Fortunately for Boston, with the Toronto Raptors leading them by 4.5 games in the standings and the Celts ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers by a comfortable six games, Brad Stevens’ team is enjoying the rare situation of having a playoff seed that appears to be somewhat locked in.
Still, with the team only able to go as far as its young rotation will carry it, Brown addressed the media on Thursday.
“I’m feeling a lot better. I’m just trying to hurry up and get back,” Brown said, as quoted by Celtics.com.
“I’m tired of not playing.”
Stevens is probably tired of him not playing, too.
As we head into the month of April, playoff-bound teams and conference contenders begin to think about playing into June, while the cellar-dwellers and pretenders begin to look toward the draft lottery and free agency.
What’s funny is that in the midst of the Raptors and their rise out East, the Celtics and their dominance has become a bit of a forgotten storyline. When Gordon Hayward went down on opening night, the neophytes from the Northeast were thought to be a decent team in the making whose ceiling probably wasn’t anywhere near that of the Cavs, the Raptors and perhaps even the Washington Wizards.
Yet through it all, with the impressive growth of Jaylen Brown, impressive rookie Jayson Tatum and the rise of Irving as a franchise’s lynchpin, the Celtics stormed out the games to the tune of a a 17-3 record. What made the strong start even more impressive was the fact that the team won 16 straight games after beginning the season 0-2.
Although they weren’t able to keep up that pace, they began the month of February having gone 37-15 and turned a great many into believers. With their spry legs, team-first playing style and capable leader in Irving, the Celtics, it was thought, were a true contender in the Eastern Conference — if not the favorite.
Since then, and after experiencing injuries to some of its key cogs, the team has gone just 11-8.
In the interim, it seems that many have forgotten about the team that tantalized the Eastern Conference in the early goings of the season.
Brown’s return, in one important respect, will signify a return to Boston’s prior self.
With Marcus Smart having recently undergone surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right thumb, he is expected to be out another five weeks or so, meaning that he’ll likely miss the beginning of the postseason.
As for Irving, although reports say that his ailing knee has no structural damage, everything the Celtics hope to accomplish begins and ends with him. FOX Sports 1’s Chris Broussard believes that it’s no slam dunk that Irving returns to action this season, but he’s in the minority. This team has simply come too far to not give themselves every opportunity to compete at the highest level, so long as doing so doesn’t jeopardize the long term health of any of the franchise’s cornerstones.
Make no mistake about it, the Celtics are far from a finished product. With their nucleus intact and flexibility preserved, they will have another offseason with which to tinker with their rotation pieces and plug away at building a champion.
But here and now, with what they’ve got, the Celtics are much closer than any of us thought they would be at this point.
And on Sunday, when Jaylen Brown rejoins his team in the lineup, to the delight of the Boston faithful, the Celtics will be that much closer.