When scouting for the best shooter in the NBA Draft, there are a lot of things to take into mind. Those things aren’t necessarily illustrated by any statistics either. Although both standard statistics and advanced analytics are helpful, they don’t indicate how fast a player’s release is, how they’ll handle the deeper three point line, if they have some type of fundamental flaw that could be exposed at the next level or how they far against the kind of length and athleticism the average NBA defender possesses. Sometimes you just don’t know until you see them in live game action, but by that time contracts are signed and the pressure is on.
Many scouts and general managers have lost their jobs over shooters who didn’t translate. Ray Allen’s hot shooting for the Finals-bound Miami HEAT have a lot of people saying the old homage “the jump shot is the last thing to go”, but there are far more cases where it’s the first to go, especially when the transition from college basketball to the NBA is made.
In continuation with our NBA Draft coverage, we take a look at some of the best shooters this draft class has to offer, focusing primarily on their ability to hit from beyond the arc.
Doug McDermott – Creighton, Forward
You don’t become one of the greatest scorers in NCAA history without being able to shoot the basketball at a prolific rate. As far as pure shooters go, this draft class probably doesn’t offer a better one than McDermott, who score over 3,000 points in his career at Creighton. Most impressive was the fact that he never shot under 40 percent from beyond the arc, that’s while shooting over 110 each season and making a total of 274.
At 6’8 with more athleticism than most people realize, McDermott is going to be a tough guard at the NBA level as well. He may not be one of the league’s leading scorers like he was at the NBA, but he’s going to be the kind of offensive threat who demands attention at every moment, no matter where he is on the floor. If left open, he’s almost a guarantee to make the defense pay, reflected by the ridiculous 1.9 points per possession he averaged on unguarded jump shots this season.
He boasted a true shooting percentage of 65.1 percent this season, amongst the top in the class, which is especially impressive when you consider the load he carried for his team and that he took 17.9 shots a game. He never shot less than 52 percent from the field overall.
McDermott is quickly becoming one of the draft’s high risers as team’s fall in love with his basketball IQ, maturity and offensive abilities. Given that he settles into a position that he can defend adequately (or at least close to it), look for McDermott to be one of the rookie leaders in scoring next season.
Nik Stauskas, Michigan, Guard
As a freshman Stauskas put himself on the NBA Draft radar because of his ability to hit the three-point shot, connecting on 80 triples at a 44 percent clip. As a sophomore he did much more than just hit the long ball, which is why he’s now a consensus lottery pick. Stauskas proved to be a viable threat to put the ball on the floor on close outs and efficiently operate in the pick-and-roll, which could help him be the second shooting guard selected behind Andrew Wiggins, the potential No. 1 overall selection. Oh yeah, and he hit 92 threes, right at 44 percent efficiency once again.
Stauskas’ bread and butter is always going to be his smooth, picture perfect jump shot, though. He ranks as one of the best spot up shooters in the draft, averaging 1.3 points per possession in those situations. His true shooting percentage of 65.1 percent also puts him near the top of the class, on par with big guys who primarily shoot from within 10 feet.
The further away he is from the basket, the more reliable Stauskas is. The key for him to become a starter in the league and not just a specialist is going to be building on his arsenal inside of the arc. With the ability to create his own shot and finish in the interior, Stauskas could easily end up one of the better players in this class. However, his jumper alone should keep him in the league for several years as he possesses endless range and a quick enough release to get his shot off against NBA-caliber defenders. Ideally he’ll land with a team with creators who will allow him to play to his strengths early on until he becomes more comfortable with the other aspects of his game.
Rodney Hood – Duke, Forward
During his loan season at Duke Hood proved to be one of the best three-point shooters in the country, making 71 treys while shooting 42 percent from distance. The southpaw is silky smooth with a quick release. He averaged 1.04 points per possession in spot up shooting situations. Unfortunately, he played on a Blue Devils team that had a lot of scorers but no true playmaker, so he didn’t get to play to his strengths as much as he likely will in the NBA.
In the Blue Devils’ opening round loss in the NCAA Tournament to Mercer Hood’s difficulties creating off of the dribble were magnified. Set to turn 23 years of old by the time the season starts, he may never be the kind of primary offensive option who you can run things through and expect to create for himself and others. He could just end up being a shooter, but at 6’8 with deep range teams are always going to have room for him on their roster.
More important for his career’s success than expanding his offensive repertoire is being a quality defender.
Jabari Brown – Missouri, Guard
There’s a lot to like about Brown’s game, like the way he’s steadily improved over the last three years and how athletic he is. He’s likely going to carve his niche in the league as a shooter, though. That’s what projects to translate the best, which is surprising to say about someone who shot 14 percent from three during his freshman year at Oregon.
Two years later, he’s one of the best in college basketball, making 80 triples on over 40 percent shooting. Not only did he make 2.3 threes a game, he also made nearly eight trips to the free throw line, where he converted just about 80 percent of the time.
The majority of Brown’s offense came in spot up opportunities and off of screens. He averaged 1.0 points per possession in those situations, while also serving as a lethal threat in transition. For teams that like to play up temp and need some depth in the backcourt, Brown is going to be a very attractive option, either late in the first round or early in the second.
C.J. Wilcox – Washington, Guard
Although he didn’t get a lot of national attention while doing so, over the last four years Wilcox has been one of the best shooters in college basketball. He finished his career with 301 triples made, never shooting less than 36 percent from the field. Wilcox averaged 1.1 points per possession in spot up situations and nearly the same coming off of screens, where he did the majority of his work.
With a wingspan just under seven foot, good athleticism and an adept understanding of how to work without the ball, Wilcox should be able to catch on with a team next season regardless of whether he gets drafted in the second round.
One of his main selling points at the NBA Draft Combine was that he is more than a shooter. However, it is his jump shot that is going to keep him in the league and potentially give him the opportunity to showcase what else he can do.
Joe Harris, Virginia, Guard – Lowest he shot from three in his four-year career was 38 percent, other than that he was at 40 percent or over every season. Has a quick enough release to believe he could get his shot off against NBA defenders, but it’s the other side of the court that could lead to him taking his reliable jump shot abroad. Also is a surprisingly mediocre free throw shooter.
Travis Bader, Oakland, Guard –The NCAA’s all-time leading three point shooter with 504 triples made in his career. Is deserving of the top spot on this list as he could probably win multiple NBA three-point shootouts, but little else about his game is NBA-caliber, so he may never get the opportunity. That jumper is going to be worth some nice money overseas, though.
Alec Brown, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Center – The lone center on this list; Brown doesn’t have a body of work that impresses like most draft prospects, but as a stretch five he can really be a matchup nightmare. Has a better chance to stick than the average specialist because his top skill is somewhat of a rarity at his position. Lack of strength is the big thing that will scare teams away.
DeAndre Daniels, UConn, Forward – An emerging threat with his jump shot, which became one of his more valuable weapons this season after really being a weakness his first two years. He connected on a career-high 50 triples at an impressive 41 percent clip – 17 points higher than his freshman season. While he’s well-rounded, his rapidly-improving three point shooting could be his strength early on.
P.J. Hairston, D-League, Guard– The character red flags stemming from his midseason dismissal at North Carolina look bad, but Hairston has gone a long way to try and make up for them. He immediately entered the D-League after being ruled ineligible and proved to be a lethal scoring threat there as well. He wasn’t overly efficient (who is in the D-League, though?), but he did show that he can score against a competition level that many regard as higher than D-I college basketball. He’s athletic with deep range, look for him to go late in the first round. He makes a lot of sense for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Jordan Adams, UCLA, Guard – It’s almost not fair to classify Adams by his position. The most accurate label for him is a bucket maker. Far from an elite athlete, Adams has a knack for scoring and simply knows how to put the ball in the hole. He has deep range on his jump shot and a quick release. Stock may not be where he wants it to be after flip flopping on staying in school another year, but he’s too young and offensively gifted not to get a serious shot at making a roster next year.
James Young, Kentucky, Forward – Shot just 34 percent from three and 40 percent overall, but is similar to Brad Beal in the sense that he should end up being a much better shooter in the pros than he was in college. He has a really nice stroke and deep range, making shots isn’t going to be a problem for him. Taking better shots will be the key. He’s far too athletic to settle.
Jabari Parker, Duke, Forward – If all Parker did was focus on his jump shots and had quality creators around him to set him up, he’d undoubtedly be regarded as one of the best shooters in this draft class. That wasn’t the situation he was in this past year at Duke, though, and it’s unlikely that it will be his role at the next level. He’s just too good overall offensively to focus on utilizing that one aspect of his arsenal. He can score with his back to the basket, finish at the rim, score off put backs and cuts; you name it, he can do it. And if making a jump shot, from anywhere on the court, including beyond the arc, is it, he’ll come through.
Honorable Mentions: Gary Harris (Michigan State, Guard), Dario Saric (International, Forward), Adreian Payne (Michigan State), Cleanthony Early (Wichita State, Forward) and Isaiah Austin (Baylor, Forward).
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The Best of the Undrafted Players
David Yapkowitz breaks down the best players who weren’t drafted in Thursday night’s NBA Draft.
Ben Wallace, Raja Bell, Avery Johnson, David Wesley, John Starks; those are just a few former NBA players who didn’t hear their name called on draft night, yet went on to have pretty impressive careers.
Each year there are a few undrafted players who end up making a team’s roster and turn out to be solid contributors. This past season, players like Ron Baker of the New York Knicks, Yogi Ferrell of the Dallas Mavericks, and Derrick Jones Jr. of the Phoenix Suns went undrafted in 2016 yet ended up as regular rotation guys for their teams. In Ferrell’s case, he became a starter.
With the 2017 NBA Draft come and gone, here’s a look at some of the top undrafted players who might be able to strengthen a team’s roster.
Johnathan Motley was the best player on a Baylor team that was a No.3 seed and made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 17.3 points per game on 52.2 percent shooting and pulled down 9.9 rebounds per game.
At 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, Motley is definitely in the mold of a versatile wing player who can play multiple positions and thrive and in today’s NBA. What he needs to do, however, is improve his outside shot. He shot only 28.1 percent from three-point range. One crucial aspect for hybrid forwards is to be able to step out and hit long range jumpers.
His stock often fluctuated in various mock drafts; some had him going in the first round, others in the second. Per The Vertical’s Shams Charania, Motley signed a two-way contract with the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday.
P.J. Dozier was one-half of South Carolina’s star duo that helped propel them to a Cinderella run to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament. The other half, Sindarius Thornwell, had his name called, but at the end of the night, Dozier was still waiting.
Only a sophomore, Dozier was the second leading scorer for the Gamecocks with 13.9 points per game. He was always projected to go in the second round on most mocks and perhaps he came out a bit too early. The talent is there though.
He can have success as a team’s combo guard off the bench. He will need to work on his shooting though. He shot only 40.7 percent from the field, 29.8 percent from three. He’ll be in summer league with the Los Angeles Lakers, and from there will hope to entice a team to bring him to training camp.
Melo Trimble might have been one of those players that needed to strike while the iron’s hot. Two years ago, he was talked about as a probable first-round pick had he declared for the draft after his freshman year at Maryland. Instead, he stayed until his junior year and his stock fell.
He actually turned in an impressive junior campaign with 16.8 points per game, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. He shot a respectable 44.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from three-point range.
Trimble will play summer league with the Philadelphia 76ers, and like most undrafted free agents, will look to turn his performance into a training camp invitation. He probably projects to be a backup point guard should he find a place in the league. He had first round and possible lottery talent before, however, so maybe all he needs is an opportunity.
In today’s game, where teams put a premium on versatile, do it all type players who can play multiple positions, Devin Robinson certainly fits that description. Robinson is a long, athletic forward who can step out and hit outside jumpers while locking up his opponent’s best wing scorer.
Florida had a surprisingly solid run in the NCAA Tournament and Robinson was a big part of that. His junior year, his best year yet, saw him average 11.1 points per game on 47.5 percent from the field and 6.1 rebounds. He showed a much improved outside shot, connecting on 39.1 percent of his looks from downtown. In the tournament, he upped his averages to 28.3 points on similar shooting percentages.
Robinson will be in summer league with the Washington Wizards, a team that often times lacked production off their bench last season. Depending on how he performs in summer league, don’t be surprised to see him on the Wizards roster come opening night.
Playing in the shadow of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker in years past, Nigel Hayes was given an opportunity as a senior at Wisconsin to show what he could do as the focal point of an offense. His numbers didn’t jump off the page, but he did play well enough to be given a shot at making a team’s roster.
His 14 points per game were good enough to tie teammate Ethan Happ for the second leading scorer on the team. As a power forward, he was actually the second leading assist man with 2.7. One area he’ll need to improve on to make an impact in the NBA is his outside jumper. He shot 39.6 percent from three his sophomore season. This year it was down to 31.4 despite taking a similar number of attempts (2.5 and 1.9 respectively).
Hayes looks to be one of those players in between positions. He lacks the quickness and range to thrive at small forward but is a bit undersized at the NBA level for power forward. He is an incredible energy player, though, and players like that have been able to carve out nice careers. He’ll be in summer league with the Knicks, and given their current state of affairs, they need all the help they can get.
In the mock drafts that projected him to be drafted, L.J. Peak was most likely going to be a second round pick. That’s not to say he doesn’t have first round talent. He’s a big guard that can play both guard positions.
Despite Georgetown’s futile record this season, Peak was a standout. He was the team’s second-leading scorer at 16.2 points per game on 48 percent shooting from the field. He was also their top playmaker, dishing out 3.5 assists. In the NBA, he most likely can find a role for some team as a combo guard off the bench. He only shot 32.7 percent from the beyond the arc, however, so if he wants to make an impact in the league that’s one area he’ll need some work.
He’s set to go to summer league with the Houston Rockets. Depending on what roster moves the Rockets make, it will be tough for Peak to make the final team. They already have two guards capable of playing both guard spots off the bench in Lou Williams and Isaiah Taylor. Taylor’s contract isn’t guaranteed, but he probably has the inside track due to his familiarity with the team. In any case, a strong summer showing should lead Peak to a training camp invite with another team, if not the Rockets.
NBA PM: Losers Of The 2017 NBA Draft
Who were the two parties who came out of draft night worse off than they went in? Spencer Davies explores.
As the book closes on the 2017 NBA Draft, the league takes a bit of a break before going full throttle into the free agency portion of the off-season.
Before we get there, though, Basketball Insiders will take a look at the winners and losers of Thursday’s draft to get you caught up. Our own Benny Nadeau already took care of the former, so this piece will focus on the two parties who came out of the night worse off than they did going into it.
Early Entrants Going Undrafted
The amount of talent in this year’s draft class was undeniable, so those that decided to come out of college too soon instead of returning to school for another year suffered tremendously.
Let’s take a look at some notable undrafted players that entered as underclassmen:
Simmons was an interesting story this past season with the Arizona Wildcats. It was a difficult one-and-done season for Simmons, as he had trouble converting on the perimeter (33 percent) and contributing anything other than scoring.
In the first couple of months as a freshman, he was basically an every game starter and played at least 28 minutes per game for the team. As the year wound down, though, the 6-5, 175-pound shooting guard barely saw the court, and the time he was given came during blowouts.
His decision to enter the draft was questionable and a gamble, and most teams saw it the same way. Luckily for Simmons, he was reportedly able to come to an agreement with the Memphis Grizzlies on a free agent contract.
A player that surprisingly didn’t get selected was P.J. Dozier from South Carolina. In his sophomore season, the 20-year-old swingman took on a much heavier workload and dramatically improved his game on both ends of the floor.
Dozier was one of the best defenders in the SEC and in the entire NCAA, as well as an aggressor on offense. He was not bashful and took his new role in stride. Over the course of one year, he attempted six more field goals per game and upped his three-point success by 8.5 percentage points.
He also snatched almost two more rebounds per game and averaged nearly two steals for the Gamecocks. Dozier going undrafted was a head scratcher, but the Los Angeles Lakers made sure he landed on his feet with a deal.
Briscoe is more of a hybrid type with a bulky build for a backcourt player. In two seasons under John Calipari at Kentucky, he was pretty consistent with his game as somebody who will give you a little bit of everything.
He’s not particularly a good shooter, but he can get some rebounds and dish it out to make the right plays. You’ll see that with when he’s playing for the Philadelphia 76ers in Summer League.
Blakeney—a sophomore guard from LSU—proved that he can shoot the basketball and be a pure scorer (17.2 points per game) when given the opportunity, but what about the defensive end of the floor? He’ll need to work on that, as well as his all-around game that won’t make him a one-dimensional threat.
He hasn’t received an offer from a team yet, but he’ll likely get a chance to showcase his talents in either Orlando or Las Vegas.
The trend here seems obvious—if you’re a shooting guard and haven’t gotten at least three years of college experience, it may not be wise to declare. Executives understand that they need players with the “do-it-all” quality and not just pure scorers that can’t bring more than one or two skills to the table.
Over the past week, the writing seemed to be on the wall for Jimmy Butler and his future with the Bulls. There were rumors all over linking him mainly to the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the dark horse candidate to land the All-Star was the one to pull the trigger.
After the first selection in the draft was made, the Minnesota Timberwolves came to an agreement with Chicago that reunited Butler with his former coach of four years, Tom Thibodeau. The deal came a few weeks after an exit interview regarding the team’s direction that reportedly went well.
The 27-year-old’s trainer didn’t hide his displeasure about the move, but it’s understandable from the perspective of VP of Basketball Operations John Paxson and general manager Gar Forman, who strived to “set a direction” for the franchise.
However, what they received in return for Butler was not nearly enough for a man that is just now entering his prime as one of the best two-way players in the game today. In exchange for Butler, the Wolves sent Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine to Chicago. Furthermore, the Bulls were able to move up nine spots in the draft, but it cost them their 16th pick to do so.
LaVine is as exciting as a player as any young talent in the NBA, but he’ll enter the season coming off a brutal ACL tear that ended his year prematurely. It will probably be a little while before the 22-year-old sees the floor, and, as the centerpiece of this trade, it’s definitely risky not knowing how he’ll respond to the injury.
While Dunn could have plenty of promise as the starting point guard of the future, his rookie season in Minnesota left a lot to be desired. The only defense of his inclusion as one of the key pieces in this transaction is being a top five pick in last year’s draft with untapped potential.
With the seventh overall selection, Chicago drafted Lauri Markkanen out of Arizona. In his lone season under Sean Miller, the seven-footer was a key cog in the Wildcats’ run in the PAC-12 and NCAA tournaments.
The talent is clearly there as a sharpshooting stretch four or five, but with Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic already in the mix at power forward, the fit may be a problem. He could see some time at center, but remember, Robin Lopez, Cristiano Felicio, and Joffrey Lauvergne are holding down the fort there, too.
Markkanen’s situation will all depend on if qualifying offers are made to Mirotic, Felicio, and Lauvergne.
To add the cherry on top of the Bulls’ rough night, they excited some fans of the organization when they took Jordan Bell out of Oregon early in the second round. That hope quickly diminished when the Golden State Warriors paid $3.5 million for the pick, and Chicago agreed to send him to the Bay.
Bell was one of the sexier names in the draft for a good reason, but the money was more important to the Bulls, who will have some more decisions to make this summer with their veterans on the roster likely not wanting to be a part of the rebuild.
Without their superstar of the last three years, and still with an inexperienced head coach like Fred Hoiberg to develop the young talent brought into the organization, it’s going to be a little while before basketball is king again in the Windy City.
Hawks Didn’t Expect John Collins To Fall To 19
Newly-minted Atlanta Hawks GM Travis Schlenk had a relatively easy decision drafting John Collins at 19.
During Travis Schlenk’s first NBA Draft as Atlanta GM, fortune smiled as center John Collins of Wake Forest, a player rated highly on Atlanta’s draft board, fell to the 19th pick.
“Through the whole week, we had guys ranked, and he was the highest guy there,” said Schlenk to assembled media at the Omni Hotel, adjacent to Philips Arena. “We thought he’d go a little higher. We had a couple options on the board to move back, but once we saw that John was going to be there, we didn’t entertain any of those.”
Schlenk added that Atlanta also tried to move up but was unable to execute a trade.
“We did have some conversations about trying to move up,” said Schlenk. “We had one player that we targeted that we really wanted to move up for but were unable to do so.”
The process of building the team’s draft depth chart was collaborative, Schlenk added, which meant Collins’ selection was by consensus rather than by decree. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer was among those whose input factored into the selection.
“I have a lot of faith in the group that was here before I got here,” said Schlenk. “They’ve been a huge asset to me coming in here in the middle of this process. As I’ve stated all along, I view Coach Bud and I’s relationship as a partnership. It doesn’t do us any good to take a guy that he doesn’t like, so he’s got a voice in it for sure.”
Schlenk was asked about areas where Collins needs to improve and didn’t shy away from questions about his defense.
“That was kind of the knock on him at Wake Forest,” said Schlenk. “But a lot of times, especially in college — when you’re the main focal point — you’ll see the best offensive player doesn’t want to get in foul trouble so he can stay on the floor. We interviewed him in Chicago. That’s what he said: “Coach Manning said, ‘Don’t get in foul trouble, I can’t afford to have you off the court.'”
The Hawks GM also talked about Collins’ shortcomings as a shooter.
“One of the first things we’re going to work on with him is a jump shot,” said Schlenk. “In college, all his scoring came in the post. And he’s got a good post game. We just need to extend his range out, especially the way we play and the way the league’s going.”
But overall, Schlenk was extremely positive about the opportunity to add a player with the upside of Collins, a player who is far from a finished product.
“Last year you saw his athleticism, and then the big jump that he’s made from his freshman year to his sophomore year,” Schlenk said. “Obviously, being the most improved player in the ACC, you see the growth he’s made. And he’s still a 19-year-old kid, so there’s still a lot of room to grow.”
In the second round, Atlanta selected shooting guard Tyler Dorsey, who shot 56 percent from three and averaged 23 points during Oregon’s run to the Final Four. The Hawks also selected 6-10 French center Alpha Kaba of Mega Leks, a likely draft-and-stash candidate. With Collins’ youth and lack of polish, it may take some time to judge Schlenk’s first draft. But fortunately for him, the decision was a relatively easy one since the team didn’t expect Collins to fall all the way to 19 where Atlanta could grab him.