Which NBA Team Will Land Tom Thibodeau?

The Chicago Bulls are reportedly on the verge of getting Fred Hoiberg to put pen to paper and become their next head coach. Meanwhile Tom Thibodeau, who’s viewed by many as one of the most brilliant tacticians in the game of basketball, is still a free agent, though he may not be as interested in working this year as some would imagine.

It may not be his choice, frankly, as opportunities with both the Orlando Magic and New Orleans Pelicans dried up after widespread rumors that the organizations were interested in Thibodeau proved to be fruitless.

Orlando opted to go with Scott Skiles, a former Magic player beloved by team ownership, while New Orleans, though interested in Thibodeau, was not interested in the $7-8 million per season he would have likely commanded as a head coaching candidate. Alvin Gentry, the man they hired instead, will make just under $3.5 million a year, less than half of what Thibodeau was rumored to have wanted. Put simply, they just couldn’t afford him.

With those two jobs filled, only the Denver Nuggets still have a need for a head coach, and Thibodeau likely would not even consider a position there when it is almost sure to result in a few 30-40-win seasons and a frustrating, time-consuming rebuilding effort.

Thibodeau isn’t interested in a situation like that, which is why it seems most likely that he’ll sit a year out and see how the coaching landscape changes over the course of the next year. Knowing Thibodeau is available, there could be plenty of potential contenders that would consider letting go of middling coaches to hire the man who has now become the premier free agent coach.

The Washington Wizards, for example, could decide to part ways with Randy Wittman, either later this summer or a year from now, to put someone like Thibodeau in charge of the roster. And with the talent on that roster – and the possibility of drawing free agent Kevin Durant – there’s plenty of reason to believe that Thibodeau would have interest in that position. The Wizards are a team on the cusp of doing great things, and Thibs could do them some good.

The Toronto Raptors are another team with a coach who will have an especially hot seat this year considering their back-to-back first-round exits following years in which they won the Atlantic Division. Dwane Casey’s job is in no way safe with talent like Thibodeau on the market, and that’s another situation where enough talent exists to perhaps persuade Thibs to come aboard.

The Charlotte Hornets present another interesting scenario, especially since Michael Jordan would love to hire a great coach on Jerry Reinsdorf’s dime, but Steve Clifford’s issues have been on the offensive end and that isn’t an area where Thibodeau would institute radical change. Anyhow, Clifford is a respected coach, both by his players and around the league, and the Hornets’ issues last year were more due to injuries than coaching deficiencies. That said, they’ve got plenty of talent and would welcome Thibodeau with open arms if the situation called for it.

For now, those seems like the three most reasonable destinations for Thibodeau, if not now then a year from now. All three possibilities exist in the Eastern Conference, where the road to the postseason is much easier, and they each present more than enough talent for him to mold into championship material.

Fans in huge markets like Los Angeles and New York have wondered pretty vocally whether the Lakers or Knicks might have interest in Thibs a year from now, but while L.A. was genuinely fascinated by the prospect of him as their head coach a year ago, they’ve been pleased with Byron Scott so far and reportedly have no plans to move on from him. They want to let Scott work with this new, young roster.

New York, meanwhile, isn’t a realistic option either not only because it’s too early to decide what kind of coach Derek Fisher is going to be, but also because there’s a general belief that Phil Jackson and Tom Thibodeau would not get along. Philosophically, they’re very different people. And whatever job Thibs takes next, he absolutely will not be eager to get into another situation in which he has to butt heads with the front office.

The most likely scenario for Thibodeau is that he sits out the year on Chicago’s dime and then reevaluates the job landscape 12 months from now. He’ll make $9 million over the next two seasons no matter what he ends up doing professionally, so a little television work or a year at all-inclusive beach resorts seem more likely right now than him taking a job this summer. A great one would have to open up, and then the team would have to be willing to spend enough money to reel him in, for him to consider it. So far, there aren’t any jobs like that available, which means it might be a year before we know where Thibodeau ends up.

Whatever his next job is, though, expect it to be a good one. He can afford to be picky and, for someone like Thibodeau, mediocre, rebuilding franchises aren’t an option.